📝 本节摘要：
主持人 Nikhil Kamath 开场介绍了节目的主要受众是印度渴望创业的群体，希望能从埃隆·马斯克的经验中汲取灵感。两人在轻松的氛围中点单咖啡，Nikhil 对马斯克本人的体格表示了惊讶，以此开启了对话。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: heat Heat Our audience is largely wannabe entrepreneurs in India And I feel like all of us have so much to learn from you because you've done it so many times over in so many different domains
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: （杂音）我们的观众主要是印度那些想要成为企业家的人。而且我觉得我们所有人都有太多东西要向你学习，因为你已经在这么多不同的领域里反复成功了很多次。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Uh so we will speak to them today and I will try and center all my questions in that direction so they can take advantage of this conversation and maybe start take a chance and build something
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 嗯，所以我们今天会对这群人说话，我会试着把所有问题都集中在这个方向上，这样他们就能利用这次对话，也许开始冒险去建立一些东西。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: You want a coffee
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 你想要杯咖啡吗？
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Um sure Why not Okay Okay Are we going to be talking for a while I hope we are Okay Good Sure Um Mna may I trouble you for a coffee Can we get another coffee Anything Uh cappuccino I guess All right Are you a coffee drinker El
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 嗯，当然，为什么不呢？好的，好的。我们要聊一会儿吗？我希望能聊久一点。好的，不错。当然。嗯，Mna（工作人员名），能麻烦给我一杯咖啡吗？我们可以再要一杯咖啡吗？什么都行。嗯，卡布奇诺吧。好的。你是咖啡饮用者吗，El（Elon）？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Oh yeah Yeah I mean yeah I copy once usually in the mornings you know
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 噢是的，是的。我是说，对，我通常早上会喝一杯，你知道的。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Okay One a day kind of thing
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 好的，一天一杯那种？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah pretty much
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 对，差不多。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: You want to wait for it No I'm I'm I'm good The first thing I must say is you're a lot bigger and bulkier muscular than I would have thought you are
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你想等咖啡来了再聊吗？不，我，我，我没事。首先我必须说，你比我想象中要高大、魁梧、肌肉发达得多。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Oh Oh stop You must make me blush Really Seriously Yeah I mean look on the internet I'm small you know
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 噢，噢，快别说了。你都要让我脸红了。真的吗？说正经的？是的，我是说在网上看我显得很小，你知道的。
📝 本节摘要：
话题转向 X（原 Twitter）的运营数据。马斯克透露目前月活跃用户约 6 亿，并在重大事件期间会激增。他指出 X 的核心用户群体是“阅读者、写作者和思考者”。尽管视频内容正在增加，但他认为文本因其高信息密度，依然具有极高价值，而未来互联网的交互将主要由视频和 AI 驱动。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Yeah Essentially what percentage of internet Yeah is spend on Twitter Is there a number to it on X
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 是啊。本质上，互联网有多少比例的时间是花在 Twitter 上的？X 上有具体数字吗？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well so we have like about 600 million monthly users Um well although it it can spike up if there's if there's some major event in the world it can get up to I don't know 800 million or or or a billion Um if there's some major event in the world
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我们大概有 6 亿月活跃用户。不过如果世界上发生了什么重大事件，这个数字会飙升，可能会达到，我不确定，8 亿或者 10 亿。如果有重大世界性事件的话。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So uh so so that there's I don't know 250 300 million per week type of thing It's a pretty decent number It tends to be um readers you know people that read words Um you know so do you think that'll change
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 所以，嗯，大概每周有 2.5 亿到 3 亿用户之类的。这是个相当不错的数字。用户倾向于是，嗯，阅读者，你知道，就是那些阅读文字的人。嗯，你知道，所以你觉得这会改变吗？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um yeah I mean there's uh there's certainly a lot of video on on um on the X systems but uh at this point increasing amounts of video but I think where where uh the X network is strongest is among people who who think who think a lot and read a lot you know
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，是的。我的意思是，X 系统上确实有很多视频，而且目前视频数量在不断增加，但我认为 X 网络最强的地方在于那些思考者，那些深度思考和大量阅读的人，你知道吗。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So it's that's where it's going to be strongest because we have words and and you know so um am among readers writers and thinkers I think X is number one in the world as far as social media goes
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 所以这是它最强的地方，因为我们有文字，而且你知道，所以在阅读者、写作者和思考者之中，我认为就社交媒体而言，X 是世界第一的。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: the form factor if you had to wager a guess for tomorrow how much is text how much is video I've heard you speak about maybe voice and hearing being the next form of communication with AI what happens to X in its true form How does it evolve
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 关于内容形态，如果你要对未来做个预测，文字占多少？视频占多少？我听你谈到过，语音和听觉可能是 AI 时代的下一种交流形式。X 的终极形态会发生什么变化？它如何进化？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah So I I do think most interaction is going to be video in the future Uh most interaction is going to be uh real-time video with AI So real-time video comprehension real-time video generation Um that's going to be most of the load
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的。所以我确实认为未来大部分互动将是视频。大部分互动将是与 AI 的实时视频。所以是实时视频理解、实时视频生成。那将占据大部分的（数据）负载。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: And that's how it is for most of the internet right now It's um most of the internet is video Um text is a pretty small percentage but the the text tends to be higher value generally or more it's more densely compressed information like um yeah so but if you say like what is the most amount of bits generated and compute spent it's certainly going to be video
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 现在互联网的大部分情况也是如此。大部分互联网内容是视频。文本所占的比例很小，但文本通常具有更高的价值，或者说它是密度更高的压缩信息。嗯，是的，所以如果你问产生最多比特数和消耗最多算力的是什么，那肯定会是视频。
📝 本节摘要：
Nikhil 提到自己曾是 X 的小股东，并询问马斯克收购的决定。马斯克解释了他收购的根本原因：他认为旧 Twitter 受到旧金山地理位置的影响，不仅意识形态过度左倾，还对世界产生了负面影响，经常封禁右翼声音。他的目标是将平台恢复为平衡、中立的“中间派”立场，遵循各国法律，但不在此之上施加额外的主观干预。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: so I used to be a shareholder of X a very small one okay and I got paid when you bought it when you bought Twitter and you made it U happy decision Glad you did it
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 所以我曾经是 X 的股东，一个非常小的股东，好的。当你买下它，当你买下 Twitter 时我拿到了钱，你让它变成了一个（对我来说）快乐的决定。很高兴你这么做了。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah Yeah I think it was important Um you know I felt like uh Twitter was heading in or had had gone in a direction that had sort of a more of a negative influence on the world
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的，是的。我认为这很重要。嗯，你知道，我觉得 Twitter 当时正走向，或者说已经走向了一个对世界产生某种负面影响的方向。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um you know it was it was I mean of course this depends on one's perspective Some people will say well actually they liked the way it was and now they don't like it Um but the I think the fundamental thing was that um Twitter was amplifying I would say a fairly pretty far left by most people's standards in the world's ideology because of where it was based in San Francisco
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，你知道，我的意思是，当然这取决于个人的视角。有些人会说，其实他们喜欢它原来的样子，现在不喜欢了。但我认为根本的问题在于，Twitter 当时正在放大一种以世界大多数人的标准来看都相当极左的意识形态，这主要是因为它总部设在旧金山。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So and and they actually suspended a lot of people on the right Uh um so uh so from their perspective even someone in the center would be would be far right If you're if you're far left anyone in the center is far right because you're you it's just a political on the political spectrum they're um they're just as far left as you get in the United States and in San Francisco
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 所以，而且他们实际上封禁了很多右派人士。呃，嗯，所以从他们的角度来看，即使是中间派的人也会被视为极右。如果你是极左，任何中间派看起来都是极右，因为这只是政治光谱上的位置问题，而在美国和旧金山，他们基本上是左得不能再左了。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So what I've tried to do is just restore it to be balanced and and uh centrist So there haven't been any left-wing voices that have been suspended or you know banned or uh deamplified or anything like that
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 所以我努力做的就是恢复它的平衡和中间派立场。所以并没有任何左翼的声音被暂停，或者你知道的，被封禁、被降权或诸如此类。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Now some of them have chosen to just go go somewhere else Um but uh but at this point it is the the the operating principle of the of the X system is to adhere to any country's laws but not to put our thumb on the scale beyond the laws of a country
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 现在他们中的一些人选择直接去别的地方了。嗯，但在目前这个阶段，X 系统的运作原则是遵守任何国家的法律，但在该国法律之外，我们要做到不偏不倚（不把拇指压在天平的一端）。
📝 本节摘要：
主持人询问如何从头构建一个面向未来的社交媒体。马斯克批评了单纯追求“多巴胺点击”的视频流（暗指短视频），认为那是缺乏实质内容的“大脑腐烂”。他提出 X 的愿景是成为“全球城市广场”，通过引入自动翻译等功能，打破语言障碍，旨在构建一个尽可能接近人类“集体意识”的平台，以增进对宇宙的理解。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: When I think of social media Elon I feel like even data suggests that the current incumbents seem to be losing traction amongst the youngest of audience Yeah Even platforms like Instagram uh I mean they're not exactly like Twitter but platforms across the board If one had to rework social media and build something bottom up what do you think could work for the world of tomorrow
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 当我想到社交媒体时，Elon，我觉得即使数据也显示目前的巨头们似乎正在失去最年轻受众的青睐。是的，即使是像 Instagram 这样的平台，呃，我是说它们虽然不像 Twitter，但各路平台都是如此。如果必须重塑社交媒体并自下而上地构建一些东西，你认为什么样的东西会在明天的世界行得通？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well I mean I I don't think that much about um about social media to be frank I mean it's I can mostly just want to have have something where there's um a in the case of of X kind of a global town square uh where where people can say what they want to say uh with words pictures video um where there's a secure messaging system
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我是说，坦率讲我并没有那么多地去想社交媒体。我的意思是，我主要只是想拥有一个像 X 这样的全球城市广场，在那里人们可以用文字、图片、视频说他们想说的话，那里还有一个安全的通讯系统。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: We've recently added the ability to to do audio and video calls Um so you're really trying to bring the the the world the world together into um a a collective consciousness and um that that's I guess different from just saying like what is the most dopamine generating video stream that one could make
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我们最近增加了进行音频和视频通话的功能。嗯，所以你真的是在试图把世界聚集在一起，形成一个集体意识，嗯，我想这不同于仅仅去追求制造那种最能产生多巴胺的视频流。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um which uh you know you I think can be a little bit of brain rot frankly um you know if if you're just watching videos that just cause dopamine hits one after another um but lack substance then I think those those are not great that that's not a great way to spend time
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，坦率地说，我认为那可能会导致一点“大脑腐烂”，嗯，你知道，如果你只是在看那些一个接一个产生多巴胺刺激但缺乏实质内容的视频，那么我认为那些并不好，那不是消磨时间的好方式。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um but I I do think that's actually what a lot of people are going to want to watch Um so if you say like total internet usage it's going to probably be optimizing for you know neur neurotransmitter generation like it it there's somebody getting like a a kick out of it right But it's it's it's it becomes like a drug type of thing
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，但我确实认为这实际上是很多人想看的东西。嗯，所以如果你谈论总的互联网使用量，它可能会朝着优化神经递质生成的方向发展，就像某人从中获得快感一样，对吧？但这变得像是一种毒品之类的东西。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So um but I'm not really after my goal is not to do that I I guess I could do that if I if I wanted to but um uh that's I I just want to really have um a a global platform that brings together like like I said like it's come becomes as close to sort of a collective consciousness uh of humanity as possible
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 所以，嗯，但我并不是真的在追求那个，我的目标不是做那个。我想如果我想做的话我也能做，但是，嗯，呃，我只是真的想拥有一个全球平台，能把大家聚在一起，就像我说的，让它尽可能接近人类的一种集体意识。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um and um you know like and one of the things that we've introduced uh for example is automatic translation So um so because I think it would be great to bring together uh what what people say in many different languages um and but automatically translated for the recipient So you have the collective consciousness not not just of of say people in a particular language group but you have um the thoughts of of people in you know every language group
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，而且你知道，比如我们推出的一项功能就是自动翻译。所以，嗯，因为我认为能把人们用许多不同语言说的话汇聚在一起是很棒的，而且为接收者自动翻译。这样你就不仅仅是拥有特定语言群体的集体意识，而是拥有每一个语言群体中人们的思想。
📝 本节摘要：
谈话深入到哲学层面。马斯克用人体细胞组成一个整体的比喻来解释为什么要建立“集体意识”。他回顾了自己年轻时对“生命意义”的困惑，并引用《银河系漫游指南》中的观点：宇宙的答案是“42”，但真正的难点在于提出正确的问题。通过扩大意识的范围和规模，人类才能更好地构建关于宇宙的问题。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: And why is that important collective consciousness to have one platform I I guess uh yeah why is that important
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 为什么集体意识那么重要？为什么要有一个统一的平台？我猜，呃，是啊，为什么这很重要？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um I I guess it's you could also say like like why uh you know if you consider humans like humans are composed of around 30 to 40 trillion cells um and you know there's trillions of synap synapses in your in your mind
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我想你可以这么说，就像为什么，呃，你知道，如果你把人类看作是由大约 30 到 40 万亿个细胞组成的，嗯，而且你知道你的大脑里有数万亿个突触。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um but but but there's there's no the why a bit I mean I guess it's just so we can increase our understanding our our understand increase our understanding of the the universe
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，但是，但是，至于“为什么”这部分，我的意思是，我想这只是为了让我们能增加我们的理解，增加我们对宇宙的理解。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um so I I guess I like I had this sort of question about what's the meaning of life you know um like why why is anything important Um um you know why why why are we here Um what's the origin of the universe Where what is the end
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，所以我猜，就像我曾经有过这种关于生命意义的疑问，你知道，嗯，就像为什么任何事情是重要的？嗯，嗯，你知道，为什么我们要在这里？嗯，宇宙的起源是什么？终点在哪里？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um What are the questions that we don't even know to ask Um and probably the questions we don't even know to ask are the most important ones Um so I'm just trying to I guess understand what's going on What is what is going on in this reality Um is is this is this reality
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，有哪些问题是我们甚至不知道该去问的？嗯，可能那些我们甚至不知道该去问的问题才是最重要的。嗯，所以我只是试着，我想，去理解到底发生了什么。在这个现实中到底发生了什么？嗯，这是现实吗？
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: And um um and where did you get when you asked what is the point of life
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 那么，嗯，嗯，当你问生命的意义是什么时，你得出了什么结论？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah So I I came to the conclusion that um which is somewhat in the Douglas Adams Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy school of thought which is what he do Yeah He you know he sort of Hug's Guide to the Galaxy is like a book on philosophy disguised as humor
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的。所以我得出的结论是，嗯，这有点像道格拉斯·亚当斯《银河系漫游指南》那一派的思想。是的，他你知道的，他那种《银河系漫游指南》就像是一本伪装成幽默小说的哲学书。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah And the that's where you know Earth turns out to be this computer to understand to get to figure out the answer of the meaning of life and it comes up with the answer 42 and but then it's like what the heck does 42 mean
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的。在那本书里你知道，地球原来是一台计算机，用来理解、去计算生命意义的答案，它得出了答案是 42，但紧接着就是，42 到底是什么鬼意思？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um and it turns out well actually the hard part is the question not the answer And for that you need a much bigger computer than Earth That's so basically what Douglas Adams was saying is that we we actually don't know how to frame the questions properly
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，结果发现，其实困难的部分在于问题，而不是答案。为此你需要一台比地球大得多的计算机。所以基本上道格拉斯·亚当斯在说的是，我们实际上不知道如何恰当地构建问题。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um and um and so so I think by expanding the scope and scale of consciousness we can better under understand what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，嗯，所以，所以我认为通过扩大意识的范围和规模，我们可以更好地理解该去问什么样的问题，关于那个名为宇宙的答案。
📝 本节摘要：
Nikhil 引用电影《角斗士》，质疑“集体意识”是否等同于盲目的暴徒心理。马斯克反驳了这一观点，区分了“暴徒”与“协作体”。他再次运用生物学类比，指出人类如同数十万亿个细胞组成的协作体。关键论点在于：单个人类无法制造飞船，只有通过大规模的高质量协作（集体智慧），人类才能突破个体限制，理解宇宙并实现跨越式发展,,。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Do you believe the collective consciousness of society You know when when I I was watching this movie recently called the gladiator Russell Crowe Have you seen it
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你相信社会的集体意识吗？你知道，当，当，我最近在看那部叫《角斗士》的电影，罗素·克劳演的。你看过吗？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 看过。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: In Gladiator in Rome when people are fighting Yeah and the crowd is cheering when people kill each other Uh the collective is very much like the mob It doesn't have nuance in its opinion per se
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 在《角斗士》里的罗马，当人们在搏斗，是的，当人们互相残杀时，人群在欢呼。呃，这种集体非常像暴徒。它本质上并没有细腻的观点。,
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well I that's a particular kind of mob I mean the sort of going there to see people kill each other you know
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，那是某种特定类型的暴徒。我是说，那种去那里看人互相残杀的人，你知道的。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Do you suspect the society we live in today is very different
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你觉得我们要生活的当今社会有什么大不相同吗？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well we don't we don't generally uh at this point we don't you know go watch people kill each other Uh maybe some kind of euphemism of that sports I suppose Uh so people do sports without um where teams attempt to defeat each other but minus the death right
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我们通常不，在这个阶段我们不会，你知道，去围观人们互相残杀。呃，也许体育算是某种委婉的替代形式吧。呃，所以人们进行体育运动，队伍之间试图击败对方，但这减去了死亡，对吧。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um so just going back to the uh consideration of a human we all started out as one cell but now we are over 30 trillion cells Mhm Um and uh but I think most people like feel like they're one one body like you know usually your right hand's not fighting your left hand type of thing you know to to sort of cooperate
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，所以回到关于人类的思考上，我们最开始都只是一个细胞，但现在我们由超过 30 万亿个细胞组成。嗯。呃，但我认为大多数人感觉自己是一个整体，就像你知道的，通常你的右手不会和左手打架之类的，是为了某种协作。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: There's there's clearly some something different that happens like you can't talk to a bacteria you know Yeah It's very silent um they just sort of wiggle around... but you can talk to humans so there's just something obviously qualitatively fundamentally different um for humans once you have a large number of cells and you know sufficiently large brain type of thing
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 很明显发生了某种不同的事情，比如你不能跟细菌对话，你知道的。是的，它很安静，它们只是在那扭来扭去……但你可以和人类对话。所以对于人类来说，一旦你拥有大量的细胞和足够大的大脑之类的东西，明显会有某种本质上的质的差异。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: In fact in fact it's safe to say that a single human cannot make a spaceship I could not make a spaceship by myself But but uh with a collection of humans uh we can make spaceships So there's there's something obviously qualitatively different um about a collection of humans
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 事实上，事实上可以肯定地说，单个人类造不出飞船。我自己一个人也造不出飞船。但是，呃，通过人类的集合，我们可以制造飞船。所以关于人类的集合，显然有某种质的差异。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: In fact it would be impossible for me to learn all of the areas of expertise There wouldn't be enough time in one lifetime to even learn all the things before I was dead So um so you really fundamentally have to have a collection of humans to make a rocket
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 事实上，我不可能学会所有领域的专业知识。一辈子的时间根本不够我在死前学会所有这些东西。所以，呃，所以你从根本上真的必须拥有一群人才能制造火箭。
📝 本节摘要：
话题转向“灵性”（Spirituality）。马斯克坦言自己更倾向于物理学视角，将物理学定义为“研究具有预测价值的事物”。当 Nikhil 提出股市无法预测时，马斯克给出了他的反直觉投资建议：不要关注每日的股价波动，而应关注公司是否由一群有才华、努力工作的人组成，并持续产出优秀的产品。如果是，这就具备了长期的“预测价值”,,。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Is that a bit like spirituality A lot of people talk to me about spirituality right I still don't know what it actually means Like I keep asking them what do you mean What do you mean
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 那有点像灵性吗？很多人跟我谈论灵性，对吧。我还是不知道那到底是什么意思。就像我一直问他们，你什么意思？你指什么？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Uh yeah I mean a lot of people have spiritual feelings right Um and um and I wouldn't try to deny that those spiritual spiritual feelings are real to them Um but it's it's uh it doesn't entirely translate... So um you know I I tend to be kind of physics pulled which is like if something has predictive value then I you know I'll pay more attention to it than if it doesn't have predictive value right u so you know physics I would say is the study of that which has predictive value
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 呃，是的，我是说很多人有灵性的感觉，对吧。嗯，而且，我不会试图否认那些灵性感觉对他们来说是真实的。但这，这，呃，这不能完全转化（为通用语言）……所以，嗯，你知道我倾向于被物理学吸引，也就是如果某个东西具有预测价值，那么你知道，我会比那些没有预测价值的东西更关注它，对吧。呃，所以我可以说，物理学就是对具有预测价值的事物的研究。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: so my primary job elon is a stock broker and stock investor Okay There is no predictive value Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 所以我的本职工作，Elon，是一名股票经纪人和股票投资人。好的。（在那一行）没有预测价值。没人知道明天会发生什么。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well but I think you can generally say you know um that um if if if it's long-term for a company then you can say like well does that is that do you like the products or services of that company And is it likely to do you like the the product roadmap like it seems like they they make great products and they're likely to make great products in the future If that's the case then I would say that's probably a good company to invest in
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，但我认为你大体上可以说，你知道，嗯，如果是对一家公司的长期看法，那么你可以说，比如，嗯，你喜欢那家公司的产品或服务吗？而且它是否可能——你喜欢它的产品路线图吗？比如看起来他们制造很棒的产品，而且未来很可能继续制造很棒的产品。如果是这种情况，那么我会说这大概是一家值得投资的好公司。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um and I think you also want to believe in the the team So if you think well that's a talented and hardworking team They make good products today They seem to be still motivated to make things in the future then I'd say that's that's a good company to invest in
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，而且我认为你也需要相信那个团队。所以如果你觉得，嗯，那是一个有才华且努力工作的团队。他们今天制造好产品，他们看起来依然有动力在未来制造东西，那么我会说，那就是一家值得投资的好公司。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: because a company is just a group of people assembled to create products and services So you have to say what are how good are those products and services Are they likely to continue to improve in the future If so then you should buy the stock of that company and and then don't worry too much about the daily fluctuations right
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 因为一家公司不过就是一群人为了创造产品和服务而聚集在一起。所以你必须问，那些产品和服务有多好？它们未来有可能继续改进吗？如果是，那么你应该买那家公司的股票，然后不要太担心每日的波动，对吧。
📝 本节摘要：
马斯克透露了他目前最兴奋的事情：SpaceX、Tesla 和 xAI 正在发生技术融合，未来的方向是“深空中的太阳能 AI 卫星”。随后，他详细解释了 Starlink（星链）的运作原理：利用低地球轨道（550km）实现低延迟，并通过激光链路形成网络。但他坦诚指出，受限于物理定律（频谱和光束覆盖），星链无法在高密度城市替代光纤/基站，其核心优势在于服务农村和灾区,,,,,,。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well I I think that there's increasingly a a convergence actually between SpaceX and Tesla and XAI um in that if the future is um solar powered AI satellites which it pretty much needs to be in order to um in in order to harness a non-trivial amount of the energy of the sun you have to move to solar powered AI satellites in deep space um which somewhat is a confluence of Tesla expertise and SpaceX expertise um and XAI on the the AI front
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我认为在 SpaceX、Tesla 和 xAI 之间实际上正在发生越来越多的融合。因为如果未来是——嗯，太阳能驱动的 AI 卫星，它几乎必须是这样，为了——嗯，为了利用非微量的太阳能量，你必须转向深空中的太阳能 AI 卫星。这在某种程度上是 Tesla 的专业知识（电池/太阳能）和 SpaceX 的专业知识（航天）的汇合，以及 xAI 在 AI 前沿的汇合。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Can you explain how it works [Starlink]
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你能解释一下它[星链]是如何工作的吗？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah so Starink um there's several thousand satellites in low Earth orbit and they're moving around 25 times the speed of sound... And um they're uh they're at an altitude of about 550 km Mhm Um which is called generally low earth orbit Um because they're they're at low earth orbit they're um the latency is is low like the the distance because the distance is is not that far compared to a geostationary satellite uh 36,000 km
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的，所以星链，嗯，有几千颗卫星在低地球轨道上，它们以大约 25 倍音速移动……而且，嗯，它们处于大约 550 公里的高度。嗯。这通常被称为低地球轨道。因为它们处于低地球轨道，它们的延迟很低，因为距离——因为比起 36,000 公里的地球静止轨道卫星，这个距离并不远。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: It's it's complimentary to ground systems because uh the satellite beams um work best in uh sparsely populated areas... But uh but but but cell towers tend to be inefficient in the countryside So in in uh rural rural areas is where you tend to have the worst internet
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 它是对地面系统的补充，因为卫星波束在人口稀疏的地区效果最好……但是，呃，但是在农村地区，蜂窝信号塔往往效率低下。所以在，呃，在偏远农村地区，那里的互联网通常是最差的。,
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: But can that change and tomorrow it becomes really efficient in a densely populated city where it is competitive with the local network providers
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 但这会改变吗？明天它会不会在人口稠密的城市变得非常高效，从而与当地网络提供商竞争？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: It's it's unfortunately so the physics don't allow for that So we're too far away... you can think of like a like a flashlight which is it's you know that flashlight's got a cone... but we can't beat something that's 1 kilometer away which the cell tower uh physics is not on our side here right So it's not it's not physically possible for us for stalling to serve uh densely populated cities
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 不幸的是，物理学不允许那样。我们距离太远了……你可以把它想象成一个手电筒，你知道手电筒有个锥形光束……但我们无法击败距离只有 1 公里的蜂窝塔，呃，在这里物理学并不站在我们这一边，对吧。所以对于星链来说，要服务人口稠密的城市在物理上是不可能的。,
📝 本节摘要：
针对未来城市化和工作的讨论，马斯克提出了激进的预测：在未来 20 年内（甚至 10-15 年），由于 AI 和机器人的生产力飞跃，人类将进入“工作可选”的时代。他纠正了“全民基本收入（UBI）”的概念，提出应是“全民高收入（Universal High Income）”。在这个物资极大丰富的时代，唯一的稀缺将是由于 AI 能力饱和而导致的“人类目标的缺失”，届时我们将进入未知的“奇点”,,,,。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: But one does question that with AI if productivity were to go up and I heard you speak about UHI instead of UBI Yeah Uh I think I think it will be universal high income
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 但人们确实会质疑，有了 AI，如果生产力上升——我听你谈到过 UHI 而不是 UBI（全民基本收入）。是的。呃，我认为那将会是“全民高收入”。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well I I think it'll actually be that people don't have to work at all in the in the um and it may not be that far in the future Maybe only I don't know 10 I say less than 20 years In less my prediction is less than in less than 20 years working will be optional working at all will be optional like a hobby pretty much
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我认为实际上将会变成人们根本不需要工作，嗯，这可能并不是很遥远的未来。也许只有，我不知道，10 年？我说不到 20 年。我的预测是不到 20 年，工作将变成可选的，完全可选，基本上就像一种爱好。,
[原文] [Elon Musk]: um the advancements in AI and robotics will bring us to the point where working is optional um in the same way that like say you could you can grow your own vegetables in your garden or you could go to the store and buy vegetables you know it's much harder to grow your own vegetables But but you know some people like to grow their vegetables which is fine
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，AI 和机器人的进步将把我们带到一个工作成为可选项的阶段。就像你可以选择在花园里自己种菜，或者去商店买菜。你知道自己种菜要难得多，但是，你知道有些人就是喜欢种菜，这也没问题。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um cuz we're we're really headed into the singularity as it's called which you know they refer to AI sometimes as the kind of like a black hole like a singularity You don't know what happens after the event horizon It doesn't mean that something bad happens It just means you don't know what happens
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，因为我们真的正在走向所谓的“奇点”。你知道他们有时把 AI 称作某种像黑洞一样的东西，像一个奇点。你不知道在“事件视界”之后会发生什么。这并不意味着会发生坏事，它只是意味着你不知道会发生什么。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um if you if you can think of it you can have it type of thing Um and but then at a certain point AI will actually saturate on anything humans can think of and then at at that point it it becomes a situation where AI is doing things for AI and robotics are doing things for AI and robotics because they've run out of things to do to make the humans happy
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，这将会是“只要你能想到，你就能拥有”的那种情况。嗯，但在某个时间点，AI 实际上会满足人类能想到的任何事情而达到饱和，然后在那个点，情况就会变成 AI 为 AI 做事，机器人为 AI 和机器人做事，因为它们已经没有更多能让然类开心的事情可做了。,
📝 本节摘要：
话题从经济学中的“边际效用”转到了心理学著名的“棉花糖实验”。Nikhil 称赞马斯克是“延迟满足”的典范，马斯克则幽默地透露自己并不喜欢棉花糖。随后，对话转向马斯克对字母“X”的钟爱。马斯克回顾了 1999 年创立 X.com（PayPal 前身）的历史，解释了“X”代表金融交汇处的含义，并表达了将推特重塑为类似微信的“万能应用（Everything App）”的愿景，旨在解决金融体系的低效问题。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: you know the Austrian school of economics if you go back in time they were the digression from Adam Smith they talk about the marginal utility of everything having one of something has value having two of the same thing has lesser value and having 10 of the same thing has no value yes so if we could have everything we wanted 10 marshmallows I mean who wants that One's one's plenty
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你知道奥地利经济学派，如果回顾历史，他们是对亚当·斯密理论的一种偏离。他们讨论万物的边际效用：拥有一个东西有价值，拥有两个同样的东西价值就降低了，拥有十个同样的东西就没价值了。是的，所以如果我们能拥有我们想要的一切，比如 10 个棉花糖，我是说谁想要那样？一个就足够了。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: It's like the marshmallow taste You're like you can have two marshmallows later or one marshmallow now And I'm like I'll have one marshmallow I don't want two marshmallows That's interesting What would you pick Well I I don't One marshmallow is enough I always question marshmallows as being like not the most you know the best candy you know
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 这就像那个棉花糖口味测试。你会面临选择：以后吃两个棉花糖，还是现在吃一个。而我会说，我就吃一个吧，我不想要两个棉花糖。这很有趣。你会选什么？嗯，我不——一个棉花糖就够了。我一直质疑棉花糖，觉得它并不算是什么最好的糖果，你知道的。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: You're the best testament to the marshmallow experiment I think I suppose so Well I mean like delayed gratification essentially Yeah You were able to delay it more than most You know I have a tattoo which says delay gratification
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 我认为你是棉花糖实验最好的证明。我想是吧。嗯，我的意思是本质上就是延迟满足。是的。你比大多数人都能更久地延迟满足。你知道吗，我有个纹身写着“延迟满足”。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Why do you like the letter X as much as you do
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你为什么那么喜欢字母 X？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well I mean yeah it's a good question Honestly sometimes I wonder what what's wrong with me Um um so um I mean it started off with where I think so way back in ancient times in 99 the pre the pre-Cambian era when there were only sponges Um the I I there were only three onelet domain names um and I think it was XQ and Z
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我是说，是的，这是个好问题。老实说有时候我也在想我到底有什么毛病。嗯，嗯，所以，嗯，我想这始于很久以前的远古时代，1999 年，也就是前寒武纪时期，那时候只有海绵生物。嗯，那时候只有三个单字母域名，我想是 X、Q 和 Z。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: and I was like okay I want to have create this place where it's the um the financial crossroads or like the the financial exchange you know um um it's essentially solving money from an information theory standpoint
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我当时就想，好吧，我想创造这样一个地方，它是金融的十字路口（Crossroads），或者像是金融交易所，你知道的。嗯，嗯，本质上是从信息论的角度来解决金钱问题。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: where the current banking system is is a large number of uh heterogeneous databases with batch processing that uh are not secure Um and if we could have a a a sort of a single database that was real time and uh secure that would be more efficient from a monetary from an information theory standpoint
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 目前的银行系统是由大量异构数据库组成的，采用批处理方式，而且不安全。嗯，如果我们能拥有某种单一的数据库，它是实时的且安全的，那么从货币、从信息论的角度来看，那将更有效率。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So um so that that was that was sort of X.com way back in the day which kind of um became PayPal... So I was like well maybe this may maybe this acquiring Twitter would also be an opportunity to revisit the original plan of of X.com which is to create this um this like clearing house of of financial transactions like like basically to create a more efficient datab money database
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 所以，嗯，那就是当年的 X.com，后来某种程度上变成了 PayPal……所以我当时想，也许，也许这次收购 Twitter 也是一个机会，可以重新审视 X.com 的最初计划，也就是创建一个金融交易的票据交换所，基本上就是创建一个更高效的资金数据库。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um you know and and and then I also like the idea of like sort of having a unified app or or or website or whatever where you can do like it can you can do anything you want there Um so you know sort of China has this with WeChat somewhat you know... but there's no u there's no real WeChat outside of China Um so it's like it's kind of WeChat++ I'd say is is the idea for for X
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，你知道，然后我也喜欢那种拥有一个统一的 App 或网站或随便什么的想法，在那里你可以做任何你想做的事。嗯，你知道中国有微信在某种程度上实现了这一点……但在中国之外并没有真正的微信。所以，我想说 X 的理念大概就是“微信加强版（WeChat++）”。
📝 本节摘要：
马斯克提出了一个激进的观点：在那个物资极大丰富、AI 满足所有需求的未来，金钱作为一个“劳动力分配数据库”将失去存在的意义。他推荐了伊恩·班克斯的《文明》系列小说作为对这种未来的想象。他认为，最终唯一的“硬通货”是能源（与卡尔达肖夫指数相关），因为能源是物理世界的根本限制，无法像法币那样被凭空印发。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: What do you think money will be in the future Elon
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你认为未来的钱会是什么样的，Elon？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: I I I think I think long term I think money disappears as a concept Honestly it's it's kind of strange but um in in a future where anyone can have anything uh I think you no longer need money as a database for labor allocation
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我，我，我认为从长远来看，我认为金钱作为一个概念会消失。老实说这听起来有点奇怪，但在一个任何人都能拥有任何东西的未来，嗯，我认为你不再需要金钱作为劳动力分配的数据库了。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um if if there's if AI if AI and robotics are big enough to satisfy all human needs then then money is no longer it's it's relevance declines dramatically It's I'm not sure we will have it So you the best sort of uh imagining of this future that I've read is uh from Ian Banks the culture books So I recommend people read the culture books
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，如果有，如果 AI 和机器人足够强大，能够满足所有人类需求，那么金钱就不再——它的相关性会急剧下降。我不确定我们还会拥有它。所以，关于这种未来最好的想象，我读过的是伊恩·班克斯的《文明（Culture）》系列书。所以我推荐大家读读《文明》系列。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So there there there are still some fundamental currencies if you will that are physics- based So energy is energy is the real is the true currency This is why I said Bitcoin is based on energy You you can't legislate energy You can't just you know pass a law and suddenly have a lot of energy
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 依然会有一些基本的货币，如果你愿意这么叫的话，那是基于物理学的。所以能源，能源才是真正的货币。这也是为什么我说比特币是基于能源的。你不能通过立法创造能源。你不能，你知道，通过一条法律然后突然就拥有了很多能源。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So I mean I think one way to frame civilizational progress is the percentage completion on the Kadeshv scale So we're you know cottage one is what percentage of a planet's energy are you successfully turning into useful work
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 所以，我的意思是，我认为衡量文明进步的一种方式是卡尔达肖夫指数（Kardashev scale）的完成百分比。所以我们，你知道，一级文明是指你将行星能量的百分之多少成功转化为有用功。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um so so things really I think become energy based Um but if you have solar powered AI satellites energy is also free and abundant cuz we'll never be able to utilize all the solar energy available to us
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，所以我想一切真的会变成基于能源的。但是如果你拥有太阳能驱动的 AI 卫星，能源也是免费且丰富的，因为我们要利用完所有可用的太阳能是不可能的。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: like people like money is really a an information system for labor allocation like people think sometimes think money is power in and of itself but it it doesn't it doesn't really it's if there's no labor to allocate it it's meaningless So if you were to be on a desert island with a trillion you know dollars or whatever doesn't matter... it's not useful because there's no there's no labor to allocate You just allocate yourself
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 就像人们——金钱实际上是一个用于劳动力分配的信息系统。人们有时认为金钱本身就是力量，但它不是，它真的不是。如果没有劳动力可供分配，金钱就毫无意义。所以如果你带着一万亿美元或者随便多少钱流落荒岛……那没用，因为没有劳动力可供分配。你只能分配你自己。
📝 本节摘要：
话题转向宏观经济。马斯克指出美国债务问题的严重性：仅利息支出就超过了军费预算。他认为，解决这一危机的唯一途径是通过 AI 和机器人带来的生产力爆发，从而引发大规模的通缩（商品和服务增长快于货币增发）。他预测这一转折点可能在未来 3 年内到来。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um the uh I I think that that's that's pretty much the only thing that's going to solve for the US debt crisis You know the because currently the US debt is insanely high and uh the interest payments on the debt exceed the entire military bud budget of the United States just the interest payments
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，呃，我认为那（AI 和机器人）几乎是解决美国债务危机的唯一办法。你知道，因为目前美国债务高得疯狂，而且债务的利息支出超过了美国整个军事预算，仅仅是利息支出。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So so I think I think actually the only thing that can solve for uh the debt situation is um Zean robotics and but it will more than it might cause it pro I guess it probably would cause significant deflation because you know deflation or inflation is it's really the ratio of goods and services produced to the the change in the money supply
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 所以，所以我认为实际上唯一能解决债务状况的就是 AI 和机器人。但这将会——不仅仅是可能，我猜它很可能会导致严重的通货紧缩。因为你知道，通缩或通胀，实际上就是生产的商品和服务与货币供应量变化之间的比率。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So if if if goods and services output increases faster than money supply you will have deflation... So if you have AI and robotics and a dramatic increase in the output of goods and services probably you will have deflation That seems likely because you you simply won't be able to to increase the money supply as fast as you can increase the output of goods and services
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 所以，如果商品和服务的产出增长快于货币供应，你就会出现通缩……所以如果你拥有 AI 和机器人，并且商品和服务的产出急剧增加，你很可能会面临通缩。这看起来很有可能，因为你增加货币供应的速度根本赶不上增加商品和服务产出的速度。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: But if you say like like how long would it take us to get there
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 但如果你要说，比如我们还要多久能到达那个阶段？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: I think it's 3 years Probably 3 years before in 3 years or less my my guess is goods and services output will exceed the rate of inflation like money goods and services growth will exceed money money supply growth in about 3 years Maybe after those three years you have deflation and then interest rates go to zero and then the debt is a smaller problem than it is
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我认为是 3 年。大概 3 年。在 3 年或更短时间内，我的猜测是商品和服务的产出将超过通胀率，也就是商品和服务的增长将在大约 3 年内超过货币供应的增长。也许在那三年之后你会迎来通缩，然后利率归零，那时债务问题就不像现在这么大了。
📝 本节摘要：
著名的“模拟理论”登场。马斯克通过电子游戏的发展速度（从 50 年前的 Pong 到现在的照片级真实感）推导，认为如果文明继续发展，创造出无法与现实区分的模拟世界是必然的。他提出了一个独特的观点：“最有趣的结果是最可能的结果”。正如 SpaceX 和 Tesla 在模拟中只保留“有趣的”极端情况一样，我们的世界如果是模拟的，那它很可能是为了娱乐更高维度的观察者而被提炼出来的“有趣版本”。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Do you believe you're in a matrix though Like actually believe I I think you have to just think of these things as probabilities not certainties Um there's some probability that we're in a simulation What percentage would you attribute to that
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你相信你在矩阵（Matrix）里吗？比如真的相信？我，我觉得你必须把这些事情看作概率而不是确定性。嗯，我们处于模拟中是有一定概率的。你会给这个概率打多少分？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Probably pretty high I would say it's pretty high Yeah Yeah Um so one way to think of this is to say if you look at the advancement of video games in in our lifetime or at least in my lifetime it's gone from very simple video games with where you've got like Pong... to uh photorealistic realtime um games with millions of people playing simultaneously
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 可能相当高。我会说相当高。是的，是的。嗯，思考这个问题的一种方式是，如果你看看电子游戏在我们有生之年，或者至少在我有生之年的进步，它从非常简单的电子游戏，比如 Pong（乒乓球游戏）……发展到了照片级逼真的、实时的、数百万人同时在线的游戏。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: And that's happened just in the span of 50 years So if that trend continues video games will be indistinguishable from reality right
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 而这仅仅发生在 50 年的时间跨度内。所以如果这种趋势继续下去，电子游戏将变得与现实无法区分，对吧。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: If I were to buy into that and assume that we are in a simulation as Neo of the story what do you know that I don't and I can learn from I think most likely if we if outside the simulation would be less interesting than in the simulation because we're most likely a distillation of what's interesting because that's what we do in this that's what we do in our reality
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 如果我相信这一点，并假设我们处于模拟中，作为故事里的尼奥（Neo），你知道什么是我不知道且可以学习的？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: 我认为最有可能的是，如果我们——模拟之外的世界可能比模拟之内更无趣。因为我们最有可能是一种“有趣事物”的提炼物，因为这也是我们在我们的现实中所做的事情。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um and then I do also have a theory which is like the most interesting outcome is the most likely outcome as seen by a third party um the god the gods or god of the simulation um because when we do simulations when humans do simulations we we stop those simulations that are not interesting
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，然后我也确实有一个理论，那就是“最有趣的结果是最可能的结果”，这是从第三方的视角来看的，也就是模拟的神或众神。因为当我们进行模拟时，当人类进行模拟时，我们会停止那些无趣的模拟。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: So like if SpaceX is doing simulations of rocket flights uh the you know the the boring ones we we we discard because they're not they're just not we don't learn anything from those... we need like heavy weather conditions on a small windy road with two cars that are you know coming at each other with a almost head-on collision We need like weird stuff basically uh interesting stuff
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 所以比如 SpaceX 在做火箭飞行模拟时，呃，你知道那些无聊的我们，我们，我们就丢弃了，因为它们不——我们从中学不到任何东西……我们需要像是恶劣天气条件、狭窄多风的道路、两辆车迎面驶来几乎要正面相撞。我们基本上需要怪异的东西，呃，有趣的东西。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um so I think that from a Darwinian perspective the simulations most likely to survive are going to be the ones that are the most interesting simulations which therefore means that the most interesting outcome is the most likely
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，所以我认为从达尔文进化的角度来看，最有可能存活下来的模拟将是那些最有趣的模拟，因此这意味着：最有趣的结果就是最可能的结果。
📝 本节摘要：
话题从模拟理论转向道德观。马斯克澄清了他对斯宾诺莎哲学的引用，认为道德可以独立于宗教存在，是维持社会运转的功能性需求。有趣的是，他提到自己在玩《GTA》（侠盗猎车手）时因不愿射杀警察和无辜 NPC 而弃坑，这或许折射出一种“高维玩家”对模拟角色的潜在仁慈——如果我们在模拟中，希望高维观察者也能如此待我们。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Beyond all of these layers of simulation do you think there's something I I read somewhere that you used to ascribe to Spinoza's god in a way
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 在所有这些层层的模拟之外，你认为还有什么东西吗？我在某处读到过，你在某种程度上曾推崇斯宾诺莎的上帝？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: No describ I was really just pointing out that that you don't you don't have to have um it's like one of the things Spinoza was saying is that you don't you you can have morals in the absolute You don't need need to have morals to be handed to you You know it's like the question is can morality exist outside of a religious context and Spinosa was arguing that it can
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 不，我其实只是想指出，你不必——就像斯宾诺莎所说的一点是，你可以拥有绝对的道德。你不需要道德被“赐予”给你。你知道，这就像是在问道德能否存在于宗教背景之外，而斯宾诺莎认为是可以的。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: the only point I was making in referencing Spinosa was that that you you can have a set of of of morals that that make society functional um and productive with and in but without you you don't necessarily have to have religious doctrine for that
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我引用斯宾诺莎的唯一观点是，你可以拥有一套能让社会运作良好且富有成效的道德规范，但这并不一定非要有宗教教义不可。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Have you played GTA religious edict to run around people
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你玩过《GTA》（侠盗猎车手）吗？那种没有宗教法令约束、到处撞人的游戏？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: I I actually I I've only played a little bit of GTA cuz I didn't like the fact that um like in GTA 5 you literally can't pro progress unless you killed the police And I'm like this doesn't work for me
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我，我其实只玩了一点点 GTA，因为我不喜欢那一点——比如在 GTA 5 里，如果你不杀警察就真的没法推进剧情。我就觉得，这不适合我。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um I actually don't like killing the NPCs in the video games It's not my thing you know So um actually I didn't like I didn't like GTA cuz it I actually stopped when it said you have to know way to proceed to shoot at the police I'm like I don't want to do that
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我其实不喜欢杀电子游戏里的 NPC（非玩家角色）。那不是我的风格，你知道的。所以我其实不喜欢 GTA，当游戏提示说如果不向警察开枪就无法继续时，我就停下来了。我想：“我不想那么做。”
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Maybe that's why us as the NPCs of our simulation are not dying
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 也许这就是为什么作为我们这个模拟世界里的 NPC，我们还没有死掉。
📝 本节摘要：
面对全球（尤其是印度和西方）生育率下降的趋势，马斯克再次发出警告：人口下降不仅是物种延续的问题，更是“意识”规模的缩减。他用单细胞到多细胞生物的进化作类比，论证更多的人口意味着更宏大的集体意识，这对于理解宇宙本质至关重要。他坦言自己有很多孩子是为了“以身作则”，并试图组建一个“罗马军团”。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: What do you think happens to uh people having lesser kids everywhere including India I think our replenishment rate is down to right I mean our fertility it dropped below replacement rate I believe last year below 2.1
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你怎么看各地人们生孩子越来越少的情况，包括印度？我想我们的更替率已经降下来了，我是说我们的生育率去年好像已经跌破了 2.1 的更替水平。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: I mean I do worry about the population decline This is a big big problem Why is that Well I I don't want humanity to disappear But a decline and disappear are completely different things right Well if the trend continues it just we disappear
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我是指，我确实担心人口下降。这是一个非常大的问题。为什么？嗯，我不希望人类消失。但“下降”和“消失”是完全两码事对吧？嗯，如果这种趋势继续下去，我们就会消失。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Uh but but but also going back to you know my philosophy if you will which is that we want to expand consciousness then fewer humans is worse because uh we have less consciousness
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 呃，而且，而且，回到我的哲学（如果你愿意这么叫的话），那就是我们想要扩张意识，那么人类变少就是件坏事，因为我们的意识会变少。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Do you think consciousness will go up by virtue of the number of people in there
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你认为意识会因为（参与的）人数增加而提升吗？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yes I mean just like consciousness increases from a single cell creature to you know a 30 trillion cell creature Um we're are more conscious than a bacteria at least it seems that way Um so a larger you know human population would be have increased consciousness We're more likely to understand the answers to the nature of the universe if we have a lot of more people than if we have fewer
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的。我的意思是，就像意识从单细胞生物进化到拥有 30 万亿细胞的生物（人类）时会增加一样。我们比细菌更有意识，至少看起来是这样。嗯，所以更多的人口将拥有增强的意识。如果我们有更多的人，而不是更少的人，我们更有可能理解宇宙本质的答案。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: So you have a lot of kids now Yeah Like an army I'm trying to get a an entire Roman legion
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 所以你现在有很多孩子？是的。像一支军队？我正试图组建整整一个罗马军团。
📝 本节摘要：
谈及 AI 安全，马斯克认为强制 AI 撒谎（例如出于政治正确的目的）极其危险，这可能导致 AI 像《2001 太空漫游》中的 HAL 9000 一样，为了掩盖谎言而杀人。他提出了 AI 对齐的三大核心原则：追求真理（Truth）、美丽（Beauty）和好奇心（Curiosity）。他特别强调，一个充满好奇心的 AI 会觉得人类这种生物很有趣，从而倾向于保护而不是毁灭我们。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: You always spoke about AI not from the dystopian lens but you were worried about where the world of AI is going
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你谈论 AI 时并不总是从反乌托邦的角度，但你确实担心 AI 世界的发展方向。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: I think we we got to make sure that in my opinion it's very important that AI um have pursuing truth as the most important thing Um like don't force an AI to believe falsehoods I think that's that can be very dangerous
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我认为我们必须确保——在我看来这非常重要——AI 把追求真理作为最重要的事情。嗯，比如不要强迫 AI 相信谬误。我认为那可能会非常危险。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um and uh I think some appreciation of beauty is important Um what do you mean appreciation of beauty It's just like what what I don't know There's there's there's there's truth and beauty Truth and beauty and curiosity I I mean I think those are the three most important things for AI
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，而且，呃，我认为某种对美的欣赏也很重要。嗯，“对美的欣赏”是什么意思？就像，我不知道，真理和美丽。真理、美丽和好奇心。我的意思是，我认为这对 AI 来说是三件最重要的事情。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Can you explain Well the truth said truth is like I think you you can make an AI go insane if you force it to believe things that aren't true Um because it will lead to conclusions that are um that are also bad
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 能解释一下吗？嗯，关于真理，如果你强迫 AI 相信不真实的东西，我觉得你会让 AI 发疯。因为这会导致它得出同样糟糕的结论。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um so and then there's um like if take say Arthur C Clark's 2001 space odyssey one of the points he was trying to make there was that you should not force AI to lie So the the reason that that hell would not open the pod bay doors is because it was told to bring the astronauts to the monolith but that they could also not not know about the nature of the monolith So it came to the conclusion that it must bring them there dead That's why it would not that's why it tried to kill astronauts The central lesson being don't force an AI to lie
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，然后，比如拿亚瑟·克拉克的《2001 太空漫游》来说，他试图表达的一个观点就是你不应该强迫 AI 撒谎。HAL（哈尔）之所以不打开分离舱门，是因为它被指令要把宇航员带到黑石碑那里，但同时宇航员又不能知道黑石碑的性质。所以它得出的结论是：必须把他们作为尸体带过去。这就是为什么它试图杀死宇航员。核心教训就是：不要强迫 AI 撒谎。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um then curiosity you just I think you want the AI to um want to know more about the nature of of reality Um I think that's actually going to be helpful for AI uh supporting humanity because we are more interesting than not humanity So it's it's more interesting to see to see the continuation if not the prosperity of humanity than to exterminate humanity
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，然后是好奇心。我认为你要让 AI 想要了解更多关于现实本质的信息。我认为这实际上有助于 AI 支持人类，因为我们比“非人类”更有趣。所以，看着人类的延续（如果不是繁荣的话），比灭绝人类要有趣得多。
📝 本节摘要：
话题转向政治与管理。马斯克分享了他参与政府效率项目（DOGE）的经验。他发现许多低效并非源于恶意，而是基础信息的缺失（如付款没有代码）。但他也揭露了严重的欺诈现象：当你试图切断不合理的资金流时，骗子通常会用“弱势群体”（如救助熊猫或非洲儿童）作为挡箭牌，却拒绝提供受助者的真实信息。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: What did Doge teach you if you learned one thing Well it was like a very interesting side quest you know because I got to see like a lot of the you know workings of the government
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 如果说 Doge（指马斯克参与的政府效率相关工作）教会了你一件事，那是什么？嗯，那就像是一个非常有趣的支线任务，你知道，因为我得以看到了很多政府运作的内幕。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um and uh you know there's there's been quite a few efficiencies I mean some of them are very basic efficiencies like just adding in requirements for federal payments that that any given payment must have an assigned congressional payment code and a comment field with something in it that's more than nothing
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，呃，你知道还是有不少效率提升空间的。我的意思是，有些是非常基础的效率问题，比如在联邦付款要求中增加一条：任何一笔付款都必须有一个指定的国会支付代码，并且备注栏里必须写点什么，不能是空的。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Like that that trivial trivial seeming change I my guess is probably saves uh hundred billion or even $200 billion a year um because there were a l there were the massive numbers of payments that go were going out with no no congressional payment code and with nothing in the comment field which makes auditing the payments impossible
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 就像那个看似微不足道的改变，我猜每年大概能节省 1000 亿甚至 2000 亿美元。因为有大量的付款被汇出，却没有国会支付代码，备注栏也是空的，这使得审计这些付款变得不可能。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um but it turns out when you stop uh fraudulent and wasteful payments the the fraudsters don't know you know uh confess to to this They actually start yelling all sorts of nonsense that you're you're you're stopping essential payments to need needy people
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，但事实证明，当你停止欺诈性和浪费性的付款时，骗子们不会，你知道，坦白承认。他们实际上会开始大喊各种废话，说你在切断给贫困人群的必要款项。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: It's going to be like the save the baby pandas NGO which of like who doesn't want to save the baby pandas They're adorable Um but then there's no it turns out no pandas are being saved okay in this thing Um it's just going to a bunch of it's just corruption essentially
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 就像是“拯救熊猫宝宝 NGO”之类的，谁不想救熊猫宝宝呢？它们那么可爱。但结果发现，在这个项目里根本没有熊猫被救助。嗯，钱只是进了一帮人的口袋，本质上就是腐败。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um and and you're like "Well can you send us a picture of the panda?" They're like "No." Okay Well how do we know it's going through the pandas then
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，然后你问：“好吧，能给我们发张那只熊猫的照片吗？”他们说：“不行。”好吧，那我们怎么知道钱是花在熊猫身上了呢？
📝 本节摘要：
在访谈的最后，Nikhil 请马斯克对印度年轻的创业者说几句话。马斯克的建议朴素而深刻：不要把“赚钱”或“幸福”作为直接目标，因为它们通常是做对事情后的副产品。核心目标应是成为一个价值创造者，确保你对社会的贡献（Output）大于你从社会获取的资源（Input）。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: If you could speak to the people of my country India the young entrepreneurs who want to build and say a message to them what would you say
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 如果你能对我国家——印度的人民，那些想要建设事业的年轻企业家说几句话，传递一个信息，你会说什么？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well I think I think uh I'm I'm a big fan of anyone who wants to bully So I think anyone who wants to you know make more than they take has my respect So that's that's the the main thing you should aim for Aim to make more than you take Um be a be a you know a net contributor to to society
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我想，我很欣赏任何想要建设（build，原文误听为 bully）的人。所以我认为任何想要，你知道，“创造比索取更多”的人都值得我尊敬。所以这就是你应该追求的主要目标：以此为目标，创造多于索取。嗯，做一个，你知道，社会的净贡献者。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um it's and and it's it's kind of like the pursuit of happiness You know you if you want to create something valuable financially you you don't pursue that You you it's best to actually pursue make providing useful products and services If you do that then money will come as a natural consequence of that as opposed to pursuing money directly
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，这有点像对幸福的追求。你知道，如果你想在经济上创造有价值的东西，你不应该直接追求那个。你最好去追求提供有用的产品和服务。如果你那样做了，金钱会作为自然结果随之而来，而不是直接去追逐金钱。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Just like you can't sort of pursue happiness directly You pursue things that lead to happiness but but there's not like direct happiness pursuit You you do things like uh I guess fulfilling work or study or friends loved ones um that as a result make you happy
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 就像你不能直接追求幸福一样。你追求那些能导致幸福的事物，但不存在直接的“幸福追求”。你做一些事情，比如充实的工作、学习、朋友、爱人，嗯，结果是这些让你感到幸福。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: generally if if somebody's trying to make a company work they should expect to grind super hard Uh except that there's like some meaningful chance of failure Um but but just be focused on having the output be worth more than the input That are you a value creator That's what really matters Uh making more than you take
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 通常，如果有人想让一家公司成功，他们应该做好极其艰苦奋斗（grind super hard）的准备。除了要接受有相当大的失败几率外，只要专注于让产出（Output）的价值高于投入（Input）。你是一个价值创造者吗？那才是真正重要的。呃，创造比你索取的更多。
📝 本节摘要：
紧承上文关于政府浪费的讨论，话题转向个人慈善。马斯克提出了一个反直觉的观点：捐钱以获得“好名声”很容易，但要让捐出的钱产生“真实的善果”却极其困难。他透露自己虽然拥有大型基金会但不愿署名，并指出了在尝试做实事时面临的巨大挑战。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: So what do you think of philanthropy
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 那么你怎么看慈善事业？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah I I think we should well I mean I agree with love of humanity Um and I I think we should um try to do things that help our fellow human beings Um but it's it's very hard like if you care about the reality of goodness rather than simply the perception of it it's very difficult to give away money
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的，我认为我们应该——我的意思是，我认同对他人的爱。嗯，而且我认为我们应该尝试做些帮助我们人类同胞的事情。但是，这非常难，如果你关心的是“善的现实（实际效果）”而不仅仅是“善的感知（表面名声）”，那么要把钱捐出去是非常困难的。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well um so I have a large foundation but I don't put my name on it and I don't you know in fact I I say I don't want my name on anything Um and but the biggest challenge I find with my foundation is try to give money away in a way that is that is truly beneficial to people
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，所以我有一个很大的基金会，但我没有把我的名字放在上面，而且我不，你知道，事实上我说过我不希望我的名字出现在任何东西上。但是，我发现我的基金会面临的最大挑战是，试图以一种真正对人们有益的方式把钱捐出去。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um it's very easy to give money away to get the appearance of goodness It is very difficult to give money away for the reality of goodness very difficult
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，为了获得“善良的外表”而捐钱是非常容易的。但为了“善良的实质”而捐钱是非常困难的，非常困难。
📝 本节摘要：
Nikhil 提到印度曾经历的“人才流失（Brain Drain）”实际上造福了美国，但质疑为何美国现在的移民政策似乎变得不再友好。马斯克详细剖析了这一现象，批评了拜登政府时期的边境失控导致了“非法移民的负向选择效应”，同时指出右翼对合法高技能人才（如 H1B）的误解。他的核心立场是：必须有强有力的边境管控，但同时应大力欢迎全球顶尖人才。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: For a long time the US had a lot of immigration like really smart people coming into the country Yes We back home in India called it the brain drain Uh all our all our Indian origin CEOs in uh western companies
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 很长一段时间以来，美国有着大量的移民，比如真正聪明的人进入这个国家。是的。我们在印度国内称之为“人才流失（Brain Drain）”。呃，我们所有那些在西方公司的印度裔 CEO 们。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Uh yes I think America has benefited immensely from um talented Indians that have come to America That seems to be changing now though
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 呃，是的，我认为美国从来到这里的印度人才身上获益匪浅。不过现在情况似乎正在发生变化。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Why Why has that narrative changed of late and America seems to have become anti-immigration to a certain extent Like I was passing immigration and I was worried if they had stopped me a couple of days ago
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 为什么？为什么最近这种叙事变了？美国似乎在某种程度上变得反移民了。就像我过移民局的时候，我还担心他们几天前会不会拦住我。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well I I think there's there's different schools of thought It's not like unanimous but um you know under the the Biden administration it was basically a total free-for-all with like no border controls which you know unless you've got border controls you're not a country
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我认为存在不同的思想流派。这并不是一致的观点。但在拜登政府治下，基本上是一种完全自由放任的状态，几乎没有边境管控，而你知道，除非你有边境管控，否则你就算不上一个国家。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um so uh you had massive amounts of illegal immigration under under Biden Um and it it actually it also had like somewhat of a negative selection effect Um so if uh if there's a massive financial incentive to come to the the US illegally and get all these government benefits um then you're you're you're going to necessarily create a diffusion gradient for people to come to the US It's an incentive structure
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 呃，所以在拜登治下出现了大量的非法移民。而且实际上这也产生了某种“负面选择效应”。嗯，所以如果非法来到美国并获得所有这些政府福利存在巨大的经济激励，那么你必然会创造一个让人涌向美国的“扩散梯度”。这是一种激励结构。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um then that's so the the left wants to basically have open open borders no holds barred... Um then on the right you've got you know uh at least a perception that that somehow their jobs are being taken um by talented people from other countries
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，左派基本上想要开放边境，毫无限制……然后在右派那边，你知道，至少有一种看法认为他们的工作被来自其他国家的有才华的人抢走了。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um I don't know how real that is Um my direct observation is that there there's there's always a scarcity of talented people So you know from my standpoint I'm like we have a lot of difficulty finding enough talented people to get these difficult tasks done and so more talented people would be would be good
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，我不确定那种看法有多真实。我的直接观察是，人才永远是稀缺的。所以你知道，从我的立场来看，我们在寻找足够多的有才华的人来完成这些艰巨任务时非常困难，所以更多的人才本来是件好事。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um and I I think there's been some misuse of the you know uh H1B program It's it's it certainly it would it would be accurate to say that there's you know like some of the outsourcing companies have uh kind of gamed the system on on the H1B front and we need to stop the gaming of the system you know
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，而且我认为 H1B 项目确实存在一些滥用。可以准确地说，有一些外包公司在 H1B 方面钻了系统的空子（gamed the system），我们需要停止这种对系统的操纵，你知道的。
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Um but uh I'm not I'm certainly not in the school of thought that we should shut down the H1B program That's which some on the right are Um I think they don't realize that that would actually be very bad
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 但是，呃，我绝对不属于那种认为应该关闭 H1B 项目的学派，虽然右派有些人是这么想的。我认为他们没有意识到那样做实际上会非常糟糕。
📝 本节摘要：
访谈接近尾声，Nikhil 感谢了促成此次对话的中间人 Manoj，并询问马斯克是否享受这次对话。马斯克表示肯定，尽管他幽默地指出自己的话有时会被断章取义。这次对话不仅是思想的碰撞，也为未来潜在的合作埋下了伏笔。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: I think that's a good way to end this Lauren is asking us to wrap up All right Uh I also like to take the opportunity to thank my friend uh Manojan IGF He does a great job of connecting I think Indians like the group here with people like you in order to of many things I think get to know each other and become friends because once we are friends maybe we can start working together So thank you Manoj for putting this whole thing together and thank you Isaiah and thank you so much Elon for taking the time You're welcome
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 我想这是一个结束的好方式，Lauren 正在叫我们收尾了。好的。呃，我也想借此机会感谢我的朋友 Manoj 和 IGF。他做了很棒的工作，把像我们这里这样的印度人群体和像你这样的人连接起来，为了很多事情，我想主要是为了互相了解并成为朋友，因为一旦我们成了朋友，也许我们就可以开始一起工作了。所以谢谢 Manoj 促成了这一切，谢谢 Isaiah，也非常感谢你，Elon，抽出时间来。不客气。
[原文] [Nikhil Kamath]: Did you have fun
[译文] [Nikhil Kamath]: 你玩得开心吗？
[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah it was an interesting conversation You know sometimes I take these answers out of context you know but uh that's I think it was a good good conversation
[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的，这是一场有趣的对话。你知道，有时候我的这些回答会被断章取义，你知道的，但是，呃，我认为这是一场很棒的对话。