章节 1：格雷厄姆-巴菲特课程项目的缘起与嘉宾介绍

📝 本节摘要：

本节由佛罗里达大学代表Dr. Lori开场，介绍了“格雷厄姆-巴菲特”证券分析课程设立的背景及其对学院的重要性。随后，校友Mason Hawkins上台回顾了往昔，并隆重介绍了当天的重磅嘉宾——被誉为“毕生最佳长期投资者”的沃伦·巴菲特。

[原文] [Dr. Lori]: that allowed us to set up the Graham Buffett concentration in security analysis at the University of Florida College of Business and we're honored that Mr Buffett has agreed to come and lend his name to this concentration the Graham Buffett course sequence is important to this college because it enables us to attract students who want this perspective on investing and the managing of Corporations a perspective that has been successfully employed by Mr Buffett Mr Hawkins and before them Benjamin Graham this perspective is quite simple but sometimes lost in the complexity of our University analysis

[译文] [Dr. Lori]: 这使得我们在佛罗里达大学商学院设立了“格雷厄姆-巴菲特”证券分析专业方向，我们感到非常荣幸，巴菲特先生同意前来并将其名字授予这一专业方向。格雷厄姆-巴菲特系列课程对本学院至关重要，因为它使我们能够吸引那些渴望掌握这种投资与企业管理视角的学生。这种视角已被巴菲特先生、霍金斯先生（Mr. Hawkins）以及在他们之前的本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）成功运用。这种视角非常简单，但有时却在我们大学分析的复杂性中被遗忘了。

[原文] [Dr. Lori]: the perspective is that you have to understand the underlying economics of the businesses you invest in work in you have to be cleare eyed and not be swayed by the crowds or the passing fancies of the moment and you have to learn and stick to disciplined principles of business valuation in the long run this disciplined approach will more often than not bring success or perhaps just as important avoid spectacular failures hopefully here at the University of Florida we can successfully convey those principles to our students and create a program that attracts the very best people and in time the very best employers as well so we thank Mr Hawkins for his gift and for creating this environment that makes it possible for a man like ruren Buffett to come to our University and share his thoughts with us today so without any more conversation let me introduce to you Mason Hawkins

[译文] [Dr. Lori]: 这种视角就是：你必须理解你投资或从事业务的底层经济逻辑；你必须目光敏锐，不被人群或当下的狂热所左右；你必须学习并坚持严格的商业估值原则。从长远来看，这种自律的方法往往会带来成功，或者同样重要的是，能避免灾难性的失败。希望在佛罗里达大学，我们要么能成功地将这些原则传授给学生，并创建一个能吸引最优秀人才的项目，假以时日也能吸引最优秀的雇主。因此，我们感谢霍金斯先生的捐赠，感谢他创造了这样的环境，使沃伦·巴菲特这样的人能够来到我们大学分享他的思想。那么不再多言，让我向大家介绍梅森·霍金斯（Mason Hawkins）。

[原文] [Mason Hawkins]: thanks a lot uh Dr Lori um I've got a prepared thing or two to say but before I started I wanted to just say that looking around this audience it's a huge improvement from when Dan Connell and wit storm and some of the rest of us were here uh this this group's been greatly upgraded um as a Florida uh graduate living in the state of Tennesseee um it's uh it's been a it's been quite an experience um and so I can say without without any exaggeration it's great to be back in Gator Country especially after our little sojourn to the city of Knoxville not too long ago um if I ever hear Rocky Top again it's going to be one time too many uh these are exciting times for Value investors uh they're very exciting times to be uh University of Florida graduate business student today

[译文] [Mason Hawkins]: 多谢，Dr. Lori。我本来准备了一两句讲稿，但在开始之前，我想说，环顾在座的各位观众，这比当年Dan Connell、Whit Storm和我们要在这儿的时候强太多了。这个群体的素质已经大大提升了。作为一名居住在田纳西州的佛罗里达大学毕业生，这真是一段特别的经历。所以我可以毫不夸张地说，回到“短吻鳄之乡”（Gator Country，指佛罗里达大学）真好，尤其是在我们不久前去诺克斯维尔市（Knoxville）逗留了一阵之后。如果我再听到《Rocky Top》（田纳西大学的非官方校歌）这首歌，那绝对是听得太多了。对于价值投资者来说，现在是激动人心的时刻；对于今天的佛罗里达大学商学院研究生来说，这也是非常激动人心的时刻。

[原文] [Mason Hawkins]: we're extremely fortunate and grateful to have a very special guest to share his many many insights with us he's someone i' I've admired tremendously for the last 30 years um in additionally he is a person I think each of us could pattern Our Lives after uh as a role model uh even if he even though he happens to be uh an avid Nebraska corn husker uh and we've got our scars for that too um it's my honor as well as my privilege to welcome our lifetime's best long-term investor Mr Warren Buffett

[译文] [Mason Hawkins]: 我们非常幸运且感激能邀请到一位非常特别的嘉宾来与我们要分享他的许多见解。他是我过去30年来极其钦佩的人。此外，我认为他是一个我们每个人都可以效仿的人生楷模，即便他恰好是一个狂热的内布拉斯加大学玉米剥皮机队（Cornhusker）的球迷——我们对此也有过惨痛的记忆。我很荣幸，也非常自豪能欢迎我们毕生最佳的长期投资者，沃伦·巴菲特先生。

章节 2：决定成败的关键——智商之外的“品行习惯”

📝 本节摘要：

巴菲特上台后没有直接谈股票，而是通过一个思维游戏（买入同班同学10%的未来收益）引导学生思考：决定一个人成败的并非智商或成绩，而是诚信（Integrity）、慷慨等通过习惯养成的品质。他强调，坏习惯如自私、不诚实是可以摒弃的，而好习惯是可以习得的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: uh I'd like to just say a few words uh preliminarily and then uh uh the Highlight for me will be getting your questions in in in a few minutes because uh that's I want to talk about what's on your mind I urge you to throw hard balls it's it's it's more fun for me if you uh if you put a little uh put a little speed on the pitches as they come in that you can ask about anything except last week's Texas A&M game that's off limits

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我想先简单说几句，然后对我来说，最精彩的部分将是几分钟后回答你们的问题，因为我想谈谈你们关心的事情。我鼓励你们投“硬球”（提难题），如果你们投出的球带点速度，这对我来说会更有趣。除了上周德州农工大学（Texas A&M）的那场比赛——那是禁区——你们可以问任何问题。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: uh I would like to talk for just one minute to the students about your future when you leave here because there's you're going to learn a tremendous amount about Investments and you'll learn you'll learn enough to do well you you've all got the IQ to do well you've all got the initiative and energy to do well or you wouldn't be you wouldn't be here uh and most of you will succeed in in in in in meeting your aspirations uh but in in determining whether you succeed uh there's more to it than intellect and energy and I'd like to talk for just a second about that

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我想花一分钟跟学生们谈谈你们离开这里后的未来。因为你们将学到大量关于投资的知识，你们学到的足以让你们做得很好。你们都有能做好的智商，你们都有能做好的进取心和精力，否则你们不会坐在这里。你们中的大多数人将成功实现自己的抱负。但在决定你们是否成功时，除了智力和精力之外，还有更多的因素，我想就此谈一下。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: in fact there was a fellow that Pete kwood in alaha used to say that he looked for three things in hiring people look for integrity intelligence and energy and he said if the the person didn't have the first two that the latter two would kill them because if they don't have integrity you want them dumb and lazy you don't want them smart and energetic uh and I I really like to talk about that first one because we we know you've got the second two

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 事实上，奥马哈的彼得·基维特（Peter Kiewit，原文误作Pete kwood）曾说过，他在招聘时看重三样东西：诚信、智慧和活力。他说如果一个人没有第一样（诚信），后面两样会害死你。因为如果他们没有诚信，你宁愿他们又笨又懒，你绝不希望他们既聪明又充满活力。我真的很想谈谈第一点，因为我们知道你们已经具备了后面两点。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: play along with me in a little game for just a second uh in terms of thinking about that question uh you've all been here I I guess almost all of your second year mbaas and you've got to know your classmates and think for a moment that I granted you the right to buy 10% of one of your classmates for the rest of his or her lifetime um now you can't pick one with a rich father that doesn't count I mean you've got to uh you've got to pick them pick somebody who's going to do it on their own Merit and and I gave an hour to think about it

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 配合我玩一个小游戏，思考一下这个问题。你们都在这儿，我猜你们几乎都是MBA二年级学生，你们已经了解了你们的同学。设想一下，我授予你权利，买入你其中一位同学余生10%的收益。注意，你不能选有个富爸爸的那种，那不算，我是说你必须选一个靠自己能力打拼的人，我给你们一小时来思考。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: which one are you going to pick among all your classmates is for the one you want to own 10% of for the rest of their lifetime uh are you going to give an IQ test pick the one with the highest IQ I doubt it are you going to pick the one with the best grades uh I doubt it uh you're not even going to pick the most energetic one necessarily or the one that displays the most initiative but you're going to start looking for qualitative factors in addition because everybody's got enough brain here and and enough energy

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 在所有同学中，你会选哪一个来拥有他余生10%的收益？你会给他们做智商测试，然后选智商最高的那个吗？我对此表示怀疑。你会选成绩最好的那个吗？我也怀疑。你甚至不一定会选最有活力的那个，或者最具有进取心的那个。你会开始寻找额外的“定性因素”，因为在这里每个人都有足够的脑子和足够的精力。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and I would say that if you thought about it for an hour decided who you're going to place that bet on you'd probably pick the one who you responded the best to because the one that was going to have the leadership qualities the on that was going to be able to get other people to carry out their interests and that would be the person who was generous and honest and who gave credit to other people even for their own ideas all kinds of qualities like that and you could write down those qualities that you admire in this other person whoever you admire most in the class

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我会说，如果你思考一个小时来决定把赌注压在谁身上，你很可能会选那个让你感觉最好的人。因为那个人将具备领导才能，能够让其他人来实现他们的利益。那将会是一个慷慨、诚实、把功劳归于他人（甚至包括自己的想法）的人，诸如此类的品质。你可以把你在那个你最钦佩的同学身上看到的品质写下来。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and then I would throw in a hook I would say as part of owning 10% of this person you had to agree to go short 10% of somebody else in the class that's po fun isn't it and you think well now who do I want to go short of and uh uh again you wouldn't pick the person with the lowest IQ or the or you you would you would start thinking about the person really who turned you off for one reason or another I mean they had very various qualities quite apart from their academic achievement but they had various quality the IND should really want to be around them and other people didn't want to be around them and what were the qualities that lead to that

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 然后我会再加一个条件。我会说，作为拥有这个人10%收益的条件，你必须同意“做空”班上另一个人10%的收益。这就更有趣了，不是吗？你会想，现在我要做空谁呢？再次强调，你不会选智商最低的那个。你会开始想那个因为某种原因让你反感的人。我是说，他们除了学业成绩之外，还有各种各样的品质，让他们虽然想融入大家，但其他人却不想在他们身边。是什么品质导致了这一点？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well there'd be a whole bunch of things you know but it's the person who's egotistic oh the person who greedy the person who slightly dishonest Cuts Corners all of these qualities and you can write those down on the right hand side of the page ... they're all qualities that if you really want to have the ones on the left-and side you can have them I mean they are they qualities of behavior character that that are achievable they're not forbidden to anybody in this group and if you look at the qualities on the right hand side the ones that you find turn you off in other people there's not a there's not a quality there that you have to have if you have it you can you can you can you can get rid of it

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 那么，会有很多这样的特征，你知道的，比如那个人很自负、贪婪、稍微有点不诚实、爱抄近道，所有这些品质，你可以把它们写在纸的右边……左边的那些品质（好的品质），如果你真的想拥有，你是可以拥有的。我是说，它们是行为性格的品质，是可以实现的，对这个群体中的任何人都不例外。再看看右边的那些品质，那些你在别人身上发现让你反感的品质，没有一个是生来注定必须有的。如果你有，你可以改掉它。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: Ben Graham did this and Ben Franklin did it before him but Ben Ben Graham in his low in his low teens looked around and he looked at the people he admired and he said you know I want to be admired so why don't I just behave like them and he found there was nothing impossible about behaving like them and similarly he he did the same thing on the reverse side in terms of getting rid of those qualities so I would suggest that if you write those qualities down and think about them a little while and make them habitual you will be the one that you want to buy 10% of when you get all through and the beauty of it is you already own 100% you're stuck with

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 本杰明·格雷厄姆做过这个，本杰明·富兰克林在他之前也做过。本·格雷厄姆在十几岁的时候环顾四周，看着他钦佩的人，他说，你知道我想受人钦佩，那我为什么不表现得像他们一样呢？他发现表现得像他们一样并没有什么不可能。同样，他在反面也做了同样的事，改掉了那些坏品质。所以我建议，如果你把这些品质写下来，思考一会儿，并让它们成为习惯，等到最后，你就会成为那个你想买入10%的人。而最美妙的是，你已经拥有了这个人的100%，你注定要与之为伴。

章节 3：日本市场与“烟蒂股”投资法

📝 本节摘要：

在问答环节，巴菲特被问及对日本的看法。他指出日本企业的股本回报率（ROE）极低，虽然资金成本低（1%），但他很难找到真正优质的生意。在此，他生动地解释了格雷厄姆式的“烟蒂股”（Cigar Butt）投资法：捡起别人丢弃的、还能吸最后一口的免费烟蒂。但他强调，对于长期持有而言，好生意远比“烟蒂”重要。

[原文] [Student]: your thoughts about Japan

[译文] [Student]: 您对日本有什么看法？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: my thoughts about Japan I am I'm I'm not a macro guy now I say to myself Burkshire halfway can borrow money for 10 years at 1% in Japan now 1% and I say to myself gee I took Graham's class 45 years ago and i' been working hard at this thing all my life maybe I can earn more than 1% you know if I really worked hard at it 1% annually doesn't seem impossible does it so I wouldn't want to get involved in currency risk so I'd have to do it in something that was Yen denominated so I have to get I have to be in Japanese real estate or a Japanese business or something of the sort and be and all I have to do is beat one for that's all the money is going to cost me and I can get it for 10 years

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我对日本的看法，我不是一个研究宏观经济的人。现在我对自己说，伯克希尔·哈撒韦在日本可以以1%的利率借10年的钱。1%啊。我对自己说，天哪，我45年前上了格雷厄姆的课，我这辈子都在努力做这件事，也许我能赚到超过1%的回报。你知道，如果我真的努力一下，每年1%似乎并非不可能，对吧？所以我不想涉及汇率风险，所以我必须投资于日元计价的东西，比如日本房地产或日本企业之类的。我所要做的就是打败1%，这就是我的资金成本，而且我可以锁定10年。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: uh so far I haven't found anything that uh it's it's it's kind of interesting the the Japanese companies earn very low Returns on equity and and uh uh they have a bunch of businesses that earn four five 6% on equity and it's very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you're in doesn't earn very much money now now some people do it in fact I've Got a Friend Walter schlass who worked with graham at the same time I did and and it was the first way I went at stocks to buy stocks selling way below working capital very cheap quantitative stocks I call it the cigar butt approach to investing

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 到目前为止，我还没发现什么（值得投的）。这很有趣，日本公司的股本回报率（ROE）非常低。他们有一堆业务的股本回报率只有4%、5%或6%。当你所投资的企业本身赚不到什么钱时，作为投资者你是很难赚大钱的。现在也有人这么做，事实上我有位朋友沃尔特·施洛斯（Walter Schloss），他和我同时期在格雷厄姆手下工作。这也是我最初做股票的方式，买那些股价远低于营运资本的股票，非常便宜的定量型股票。我称之为“烟蒂式”投资法。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: is that you walk down the street and you look around for a cigar butt someplace and you finally you see one and it's soggy and kind of repulsive but there's one puff left in it so you pick it up and the puff is free I mean it's a cigar butt stock I mean you get one free puff out of it and then you throw it away and you walk down the street try to find another one and I mean it's not elegant uh but it work you know if if you're looking for a free puff uh it works those are low return businesses but time is the friend of the wonderful business it's the enemy of of the lousy business

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 这种方法就像你走在街上，四处寻找烟蒂。最后你看到一个，它湿漉漉的，有点恶心，但里面还剩一口烟。所以你把它捡起来，那一口是免费的。这就是“烟蒂股”。你可以免费吸那最后一口，然后把它扔掉，继续走在街上找下一个。我的意思是，这并不优雅，但它有效。如果你只是想找免费的一口烟，这很管用。那些是低回报的生意。但是，时间是好生意的朋友，却是烂生意的敌人。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: if you're in a lousy business for a long time you're going to get a lousy result even if you buy it cheap if you're in a wonderful business for a long time even if you pay a little too much going in you're going to get a wonderful result if you stay in a long time I find very few wonderful businesses in Japan at at present

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 如果你长期持有一家烂生意，即使你买得便宜，最终结果也会很糟糕。如果你长期持有一家好生意，即使买入时付出的价格稍微高了一点，只要你待得够久，你会得到极好的结果。目前我在日本几乎找不到什么好生意。

章节 4：智商与灾难——解析“长期资本管理公司（LTCM）”的崩盘

📝 本节摘要：

学生问及巴菲特是否参与救助长期资本管理公司（LTCM）。巴菲特详细讲述了这家由诺贝尔奖得主和顶尖智囊组成的基金是如何在极短时间内破产的。他发出了著名的感慨：为什么一群智商极高的人，要为了他们不拥有也不需要的钱，去拿他们已经拥有且不可或缺的钱去冒险？他指出这不仅是愚蠢，简直是疯狂。

[原文] [Student]: you were rumored to be one of the rescue buyers of long-term capital what what was the play there what did you see

[译文] [Student]: 有传言说您是长期资本管理公司（LTCM）的救助买家之一。当时的情况是什么？您看到了什么机会？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well there's a story in the current Fortune Magazine one has Rupert Murdoch's picture on the cover that tells the whole story of our involvement ... we put in a bit on on on Wednesday morning ... in the end uh it was a bid for 250 million essentially for the net assets of uh but we would have put in three and 3/4 billion on top of that and it would have been three billion from burchshire pathway 700 million from AIG and 300 million from Goldman Sachs

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 本期《财富》杂志（封面是鲁伯特·默多克的那期）有一篇文章讲述了我们参与的整个故事……我们在周三早上提交了报价……最终，这是一个2.5亿美元的报价，本质上是购买其净资产，但我们会在此外再投入37.5亿美元。其中30亿美元来自伯克希尔·哈撒韦，7亿美元来自AIG（美国国际集团），3亿美元来自高盛。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but it was an it was an interesting period the whole long-term Capital Management and I hope most of you are familiar with it but the whole story is really fascinating because if you take John Merryweather and Eric Rosenfeld Larry Helen brand Greg Hawkins Victor agani the two Nobel Prize winners meron and scholes if you take the 16 of them that they probably have as high an average IQ is any 16 people working together in one business in the country including at Microsoft or or wherever you want to name

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 这是一个有趣的时期，整个长期资本管理公司的故事。我希望你们大多数人都熟悉它，因为整个故事真的非常迷人。如果你看看约翰·梅利韦瑟（John Meriwether）、埃里克·罗森菲尔德（Eric Rosenfeld）、拉里·希利布兰德（Larry Hilibrand）、格雷格·霍金斯（Greg Hawkins）、维克多·哈加尼（Victor Haghani），还有那两位诺贝尔奖得主默顿（Merton）和斯科尔斯（Scholes），如果你把这16个人算在一起，他们的平均智商可能比在这个国家任何一家企业一起工作的16个人都要高，包括微软或任何你能想到的地方。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so that incredible amount of intellect in that room now you combine that with the fact that those 16 had had extensive experience in the field they were operating I mean this these this were was not a bunch of guys who had made their money you know selling men's clothing and then all of a sudden went into Securities business or anything they' had they they' had in aggregate the 16 had probably had 350 or 400 years of experience doing exactly what they were doing and then you throw in the third factor that most of them had virtually all of their very substantial net worths in the business

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 那个房间里有着惊人的智慧。再加上这16个人在他们操作的领域拥有极其丰富的经验。我是说，这不是一群靠卖男装赚了钱然后突然进入证券行业的人。这16个人加起来可能有350到400年的经验，专门做他们正在做的事情。然后再加入第三个因素，他们绝大多数人几乎将自己非常可观的全部净资产都投入到了这个生意中。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: up super high intellect working in a field they knew and essentially they went broke and that to me is absolutely fascinating I mean I I if I ever write a book it's going to be called why smart people do dumb things ... but to make a money they didn't have and didn't need they risked what they did have and did need and that's foolish that is just plain foolish I doesn't make any what your IQ is if you if you risk something that is important to you for something that is unimportant to you it just does not make any sense

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 超高的智商，在他们熟悉的领域工作，结果他们破产了。这对我来说绝对是迷人的。如果我写书，书名将是《为什么聪明人做蠢事》……为了赚他们没有也不需要的钱，他们拿自己拥有且需要的钱去冒险。这是愚蠢的，这简直就是愚蠢。不管你的智商有多高，如果你为了对你不重要的东西去拿对你重要的东西冒险，这完全没有任何意义。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I don't care whether the odds are 100 to one that you succeed or a thousand to one that you succeed if you hand me a gun with a thousand Chambers a million Chambers in it and there's a bullet in one chamber and you said put it up your temple how much do you want to be paid to pull it once I'm not going to pull it you know you can name any sum you want but it doesn't do anything for me on the upside and I think the downside is fairly clear

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我不在乎成功的几率是100比1还是1000比1。如果你递给我一把有1000个弹巢、甚至100万个弹巢的枪，里面只有一颗子弹，然后你说把枪口对准你的太阳穴，扣动一次扳机你要多少钱？我绝不会扣动扳机。你可以开出任何你想要的金额，但这对我的上行收益没有任何帮助，而下行风险却相当清楚。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and yet 16 guys with very high IQs who are very decent people entered into that game and you know I think it's Madness and it's it's it's produced by an overreliance to some extent on things you know those guys would tell me back when I was at Solomon you know that a Six Sigma event wouldn't you know wouldn't wouldn't touch us or a seven Sigma event but they were wrong I mean that there history does not tell you the probabilities of future Financial things happening and they had a great Reliance on mathematics and they felt that that the baate of the stock told you something about the risk of the stock it doesn't tell you a damn thing about the risk of the stock in my view

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 然而这16个智商极高且非常体面的人却参与了这种游戏。我认为这是疯狂的。这种疯狂在某种程度上是由于过度依赖某些东西产生的。当我在所罗门兄弟公司（Solomon）时，那些人会告诉我，六西格玛事件（极小概率事件）不会波及我们，或者七西格玛事件也不会。但他们错了。历史并不能告诉你未来金融事件发生的概率。他们极其依赖数学，他们认为股票的Beta值（波动率）能告诉你关于股票风险的信息。在我看来，它关于风险连个鬼都说明不了。

章节 5：金钱的本质与职业建议——“不要把性生活留到晚年”

📝 本节摘要：

巴菲特从LTCM的案例延伸到个人理财，告诫学生尽量不要借贷。他用朴实的语言对比了自己与学生的富裕程度，指出金钱除了解锁“私人飞机”这种旅行方式外，并不能从根本上改变生活质量（吃穿住行相差无几）。随后，他给出了极其犀利的职业建议：不要为了简历好看而从事不喜欢的工作，这就像“把性生活存起来等到晚年再用”一样荒谬。他鼓励年轻人选择那些“即使已经财务自由也会去做”的工作。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I urge you in anything we never basically borrow money I mean we we get float through our insurance business and to do things but I never borrowed money I never borrowed money when I had 10,000 bucks basically because what difference did it make I was having fun as I went along and it didn't make any difference whether I had $10,000 or a million dollar or $10 million

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我强烈建议你们，在任何事情上——我们基本上从不借钱。我是说，我们通过保险业务获得浮存金（float）来做事，但我从未借过钱。当我只有1万美元时，我也不借钱，因为那有什么区别呢？我一路走来都很开心，不管我有1万美元、100万美元还是1000万美元，其实并没有什么分别。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: uh you know except if I had a medical emergency or something that come along like that but I was going to I was going to do the same things when I had a lot of money as when I had very little money you know if you think about the difference between me and you in terms of how we live you know we wear the we wear the same clothes basically Sun Trust gives me mine but you what we so we wear the same cloth we we we eat you know we we all have a chance to drink the juice of the Gods here but we we all go to McDonald's or better yet Dairy Queen

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 除非遇到医疗急救这类突发状况。但无论我有多少钱，我做的事情都是一样的。如果你想想我和你在生活方式上的区别，其实我们穿同样的衣服，基本上我的衣服还是Sun Trust（银行）送的。我们穿同样的衣服，我们吃同样的东西，我们都有机会喝这种“上帝之水”（指可口可乐），我们都去麦当劳，或者更好的Dairy Queen（巴菲特投资的品牌）。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and uh uh and we we live in a house that's that's that's warm in Winter and cool in summer and and and we watch uh Nebraska Texas had am on a big screen you know you you see it the same way I see it we do everything Our Lives aren't that different you know that you'll get decent medical care if something happens to you and I'll get decent Medical Care the only thing we do is we travel differently you know I ride around this little plane I love it and that takes money but if you leave if you leave that aside if you leave that we travel differently but other than travel

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我们都住在冬暖夏凉的房子里，我们在大屏幕上看内布拉斯加大学对阵德州农工大学的比赛，你看的方式和我看的方式是一样的。我们的生活并没有那么大的不同。如果生病了，你会得到体面的医疗照顾，我也是。唯一不同的是我们的出行方式。我坐这架小飞机到处飞，我爱死它了，这确实得花钱。但如果你把这个撇开——除了旅行方式不同之外……

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you know I would I think about it think what what can I do that you can't do now I get to work in a job that I love but I've always worked in a job I love I loved it when I I I loved it just as much when I you know when it was a big deal if I made a thousand bucks and I Ur you to work in jobs you love I mean I think you're out of your mind if you take keep taking jobs that you don't like because you think it'll look good on your resume

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我在想，有什么是我能做而你们不能做的？我现在做着一份我热爱的工作，但我一直都在做我热爱的工作。哪怕当年赚个1000美元都是大事的时候，我也同样热爱它。我敦促你们从事你们热爱的工作。如果你为了让简历好看而不断从事你不喜欢的工作，我觉得你是疯了。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I was with a fellow at Harvard the other day who was taking me over to talk and he was 28 and he was tell me what done life and which was terrific and and then I said what are you going to do next and he said well said after I get out my my uh MBA he says I think maybe I have to go to work for a management consulting firm because it'll look good on my resume I said wait a second you've been 28 you've been doing all these things I mean you got a resume that's 10 times as good as anybody I've ever seen it already I said if you take another job you don't like just for I said isn't that a little like saving up sex for your old age

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 前几天我在哈佛，有个28岁的家伙带我去演讲。他告诉我他的经历，非常精彩。然后我问他：“你接下来打算做什么？”他说：“嗯，等我拿完MBA学位，我想我可能得去一家管理咨询公司工作，因为这会让我的简历很好看。”我说：“等一下，你已经28岁了，你已经做了这么多事，你的简历已经比我见过的任何人都强10倍了。如果你为了简历再做一份你不喜欢的工作，这难道不有点像把性生活存起来等到晚年再用吗？”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you know I mean there comes a time when you ought to just start doing what you know you so I I think I got the point across to him uh uh but I you ought to take a job when you get out here take a job you love don't take a job that you know you think is going to look good on your resume take take a job you love you may change it later on but you'll jump out of bed in the morning

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 总有一个时刻，你应该开始做你想做的事。我想我把这个观点传达给他了。你们离开这里后，应该找一份你热爱的工作，不要找那种你觉得会让简历好看的工作。找一份你爱的工作，也许以后你会换，但至少你会（兴奋地）从床上跳起来去上班。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and you should really take a job that if you were independently wealthy you would take that's that's the job to take because that's the one that you're going to have great fun in you'll learn something you'll be excited about it and you can't miss

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 你真的应该选择一份即使你已经极其富有、无需工作时，你也依然会选择的工作。那就是你应该选的工作。因为那是你会乐在其中、学到东西、并为之兴奋的工作，你不可能错失这样的机会。

章节 6：投资的核心哲学——“城堡与护城河”

📝 本节摘要：

学生提问关于选股的标准。巴菲特在此详细阐述了他最著名的“护城河”理论。他将一家好企业比作一座不仅需要诚实能干的公爵（管理层）守卫，更需要宽阔护城河（竞争优势）保护的城堡。他对比了柯达（Kodak）因竞争导致护城河变窄，以及可口可乐（Coca-Cola）护城河日益加宽的案例，强调他寻找的是能在未来10年保持统治力的简单业务，而不是像微软这样虽然强大但难以预测未来的科技公司。

[原文] [Student]: would you talk to the students about the companies that you like I don't mean names I mean what makes the company things you like

[译文] [Student]: 您能跟学生们谈谈您喜欢的公司吗？我指的不是具体名字，而是什么样的特质让您喜欢一家公司？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I like businesses I can understand we'll start with that that narrows it down about 90% I mean see there's all kinds of things I don't understand but fortunately there's enough I do understand ... I don't want a business that's easy for competitors so I want a business with a motor around it I want a very valuable castle in the middle and then I want to I want to I I I want the Duke who's in charge of that castle to be honest and hardworking and able and then I want a big moat around the castle

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我喜欢我能理解的生意。我们要从这里开始，这大概能排除掉90%的公司。你看，有很多东西我不懂，但幸运的是，我懂的已经足够多了……我不想要一个竞争对手很容易进入的生意。所以我想要一个周围有“马达”（口误，随即纠正为Moat/护城河）的生意。我想要中间有一座非常有价值的城堡，然后我希望掌管这座城堡的公爵是诚实、勤奋且有能力的。接着，我想要城堡周围有一条宽阔的护城河。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and that moat can be various things the moat in a business like our auto insurance business at Geico is low cost I mean people have to buy auto insurance ... most people will assume the service is fairly uh identical among companies or close enough so they're going to do it on cost so I got to be the lowc cost producer that's my Mo to the extent my costs get further lower than the other guy I've thrown a couple of sharks into the moat

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 这条护城河可以是各种各样的东西。像我们在Geico（盖可）的汽车保险业务，护城河就是低成本。人们必须买车险……大多数人认为各家公司的服务差不多，所以他们会根据价格来选择。所以我必须成为低成本的提供商，这就是我的护城河。当我的成本比别人更低时，我就往护城河里扔了几条鲨鱼。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: 30 years ago Eastman kodak's moat was was just as wide as Coca-Cola's moat I mean if you were going to take a picture of your six-month old baby and you're going to want to look at that picture 20 years from now and you're want to look at it 50 years from now ... what is in your mind about that about that photography company is what counts because they are promising you that the picture you take today is going to be terrific to look at 20 or 30 or 50 years from now

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 30年前，伊士曼柯达（Eastman Kodak）的护城河和可口可乐的一样宽。如果你要给你六个月大的宝宝拍张照片，你想在20年后、50年后还能看到这张照片……你在脑海中对那家摄影公司的印象才是关键，因为他们承诺你今天拍的照片在20年、30年或50年后看起来依然很棒。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well Kodak had that in Spades 30 years ago they owned that they had what I call share of mind forget about share market share mind they had something in everybody's mind around the country around the world with a little yellow box and everything that said Kodak is the best that's priceless ... but they let that moat narrow they let Fuji come and start narrowing the moat in various ways they let them get into the Olympics and take away that special aspect

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 30年前柯达完全拥有这一点。他们拥有我所说的“心智份额”（Share of Mind）——忘了市场份额吧，是心智份额。在这个国家乃至全世界每个人的脑海里，那个黄色的小盒子就代表着“柯达是最好的”。这是无价的……但他们让那条护城河变窄了。他们让富士（Fuji）进来，并通过各种方式开始收窄护城河。他们让富士进入了奥运会，夺走了那种“只有柯达才配拍摄奥运会”的特殊光环。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: Coke's moat is wider now than it was 30 years ago you can't see the moat day by day but every time you know the infrastructure gets built in some country that isn't yet profitable for Coke but will be 20 years from now the mod is widening a little bit ... our managers of the businesses we run i' I've got one message to them you know which is to widen the moat and we want to we want to throw crocodiles and sharks and everything else Gators I guess into into the moat to keep away competitors

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 可口可乐的护城河现在比30年前更宽了。你无法每天都看到护城河的变化，但每当他们在某个国家建立了基础设施——即使现在还不盈利，但20年后会盈利——护城河就加宽了一点点……我对我们旗下企业的管理者只有一条指令，那就是加宽护城河。我们要往护城河里扔鳄鱼、鲨鱼，或者短吻鳄（佛罗里达大学吉祥物），以此来挡住竞争对手。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well I'm going to find them I'm going to find them in simple products because I'm not going to be able to figure out what the Mo's going to look like for Oracle or Lotus or Microsoft 10 years from now I mean I Gates is the best businessman I've ever run into and you know they've got a hell of a position but I really don't know what that business is going to look like 10 years from now

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我会在简单的产品中找到这样的公司。因为我无法搞清楚甲骨文（Oracle）、Lotus或微软（Microsoft）的护城河在10年后会是什么样子。比尔·盖茨是我见过的最棒的商人，他们拥有极好的地位，但我真的不知道10年后那个生意会变成什么样。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: now I'll name one I don't own I know what the chewing gum business is going to look like from 10 years from now I mean the internet is not going to change how we chew G and and nothing much else is going to change how we chew gum ... you give me a billion dollars and tell me to go in the chewing gum business and try and make it real dent in regy I can't do it

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我举个我没买的例子。我知道10年后口香糖生意会是什么样子。互联网不会改变我们嚼口香糖的方式，也没什么其他东西能改变。你给我10亿美元，让我进入口香糖行业去动摇箭牌（Wrigley）的地位，我做不到。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: give me $10 billion and how much can I hurt Coca-Cola around the world I can't do it well those are good businesses Now give me some money tell me to hurt somebody in in some other fields and I can figure out how to do it uh so I want a simple business easy to understand great economics now honest and able management and and uh then I can see about in a general way where they're going to be 10 years from now

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 给我100亿美元，让我在全球范围内打击可口可乐？我做不到。那就是好生意。但如果你给我一些钱，让我在其他某些领域去打击某人，我能想出办法来。所以我想要一个简单的生意：易于理解、经济状况极佳、诚实能干的管理层，然后我能大致看清它们10年后会在哪里。

章节 7：定价权与消费心理学——喜诗糖果案例

📝 本节摘要：

巴菲特深入剖析了什么是“定价权”。他以1972年收购的喜诗糖果（See's Candy）为例，解释了为什么即使没有很多有形资产，这家公司依然价值连城。关键在于它在加州拥有的“心智份额”：人们买糖果通常是为了送礼（尤其是情人节），这种行为包含强烈的情感价值。如果在情人节送廉价糖果，后果很严重。正是这种情感联结，让喜诗糖果拥有了每年涨价的能力，而这正是好生意的标志。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: we bought seiz candy in 1972 C's candy was then selling 16 million pounds of candy at $1.95 a pound and it was making two bits a pound or 4 million pre-tax we paid $25 million for it took no Capital to speak of when we looked at that business basically my partner Charlie and I really decide whether it was a little untapped pricing power there

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我们在1972年买下了喜诗糖果（See's Candy）。当时喜诗每年卖出1600万磅糖果，每磅售价1.95美元，每磅赚25美分，也就是税前赚400万美元。我们花了2500万美元买下它，它几乎不需要什么资本投入。当我们审视这门生意时，我的合伙人查理和我基本上是在判断这里面是否有未被开发的定价权。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: in other words whether that $1.95 box of candy could just as easily sell for two or two and a quarter if it could sell for two and a qu another 30 cents a pound was was4 mil8 on 16 million pounds which on a 25 million purchase price was fine ... but what we did know was there was that they had share of Mind in California I mean there was something special every person in California had something in their mind about Seas candy and overwhelmingly was favorable

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 换句话说，那一盒1.95美元的糖果是否可以轻易地卖到2美元或2.25美元？如果能卖到2.25美元，每磅多赚30美分，乘以1600万磅就是480万美元，这对于2500万美元的收购价来说就很棒了……我们所知道的是，他们在加州拥有“心智份额”。每个加州人脑子里对喜诗糖果都有某种特殊的印象，而且绝大多数是好印象。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: they had taken a box you know Valentine's Day and G some girl she'd kissed them if she'd slapped them you know we'd have no business but but as long as she kisses them you know that's that's that's what we want in their mind seiz candy getting kissed and if we can get that in the minds of people we can raise prices and and I bought that in I bought it 1972 we've raised every year I raiseed the price on December 26th

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 他们拿了一个盒子，你知道，情人节那天，某个女孩亲吻了他们。如果她打了他们一巴掌，你知道，我们就没生意可做了。但只要她亲吻他们，你知道，这就是我们想要的。在他们心中，吃糖果就意味着被亲吻。如果我们能把这种想法植入人们的脑海，我们就能提高价格。我是在1972年买下这家公司的，我们每年都涨价，我会在12月26日涨价。

好的，我们继续整理巴菲特在佛罗里达大学的访谈。接下来的内容涵盖了他的分析方法（定性与定量）、能力圈原则、对宏观经济的看法以及他对投资失误的坦诚反思。

章节 8：定性分析与核心概念——坚守“能力圈”

📝 本节摘要：

学生询问关于定性与定量分析的比重。巴菲特坦言，最好的投资往往是数字上极其便宜（定量），但那种通常是“烟蒂股”。对于优质企业，他在接到电话的几分钟内就能完成定性分析，因为这基于长期的积累。他提出了著名的“能力圈（Circle of Competence）”理论：圈子的大小不重要，重要的是你是否清楚界限在哪里。他还分享了年轻时使用的“闲聊法（Scuttlebutt）”：问竞争对手“如果你只能买这一行的一家公司（除了你自己），你会买谁？”

[原文] [Student]: what purchasing a company how much qualitative analysis do you do ... and have you ever bought a company where the numberers SP you not to

[译文] [Student]: 在收购一家公司时，您做多少定性分析……您是否买过那种数字告诉您不要买的公司？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: those are the best buys the question is whether have I ever bought a company where the numbers told me not to and how much is qualitative and how much is quantitative the Best Buys have been when the numbers almost tell you not to I mean because then you then you feel so strongly about the product and not just the fact that you're getting a used cigar butt cheap that it it it's compelling

[译文] [Warren Buffett]:那些是最好的买卖。问题是我是否在数字叫我不买的时候买过，以及定性和定量的比例。最好的买卖往往是数字几乎告诉你“别买”的时候。我是说，那是因为你对产品有极其强烈的感觉，而不仅仅是因为你能便宜地买到一个被丢弃的“烟蒂”，那种吸引力是无法抗拒的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean I I owned a windmill company at one time and so i' I you know windmills are cigar butts believe me and I bought it very cheap I bought it a third of working capital and we made money out of it but there's no repetitive money to be earned,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我曾经拥有一家风车公司，相信我，风车就是“烟蒂股”。我买得非常便宜，价格只有营运资本的三分之一，我们确实从中赚了钱。但那是没有“重复性收益”可赚的。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: in terms of the qualitative I probably understand the qualitative the moment I get the phone call I mean almost every business we bought has taken five or 10 minutes I mean in terms of analysis ... if you don't know enough to know about the business instantly you won't know enough in a month or two months,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 就定性分析而言，我可能在接到电话的那一刻就已经理解了。我是说，几乎我们买下的每一家企业，分析过程只花了5到10分钟……如果你不能瞬间了解这个生意，那么即使给你一个月或两个月，你也了解不到哪儿去。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: it's defining what I call your circle of competence and everybody's got a different circle of competence the important thing is not how big the circle is the important thing is staying inside the circle and if that Circle has only got 30 companies in it out of thousands on the big board as long as you know which 30 they are you're okay,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 这就是定义我所谓的“能力圈”。每个人的能力圈都不一样。重要不是这个圈子有多大，重要的是待在圈子里面。如果你的圈子里只有大盘股成千上万家公司中的30家，只要你知道是哪30家，你就没问题。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I did a lot of work in the earlier years just in getting familiar with businesses and and the way I would do that is I would go out and use what Phil Fischer called the scuttlebutt approach I'd go out i' talk to customers i' talk to i' talk to to uh maybe ex employees in some cases I talk to suppliers everybody,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 早年我做了大量工作来熟悉企业。我的做法是走出去，使用菲尔·费雪（Phil Fisher）所谓的“闲聊法（Scuttlebutt approach）”。我会走出去，和客户谈，和前员工谈，和供应商谈，和每个人谈。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: every time I'd see somebody in an industry let's say I was interested in the coal industry I go around and see every Coal Company and i' ask every every CEO if you can only buy stock in one coal company that wasn't your own which one would it be and why and you piece those things together and you learn a lot about the business after a while

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 每当我见到某个行业的人，比如我对煤炭行业感兴趣，我会去拜访每一家煤炭公司。我会问每一位CEO：“如果你只能买一家煤炭公司的股票（除了你自己这家），你会买哪一家？为什么？”你把这些信息拼凑起来，过一段时间你就会对这个行业了解很多。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: i' say if you got a silver bullet you know and you put it through the head of one competitor what's your competitor and why you know you'll find out who the best guy in the industry is,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我会问：“如果你有一颗银子弹，你可以用它干掉一个竞争对手，你会选谁？为什么？”这样你就会发现谁是行业里最厉害的家伙。,

章节 9：无视宏观噪音与“味觉记忆”——可口可乐的长期价值

📝 本节摘要：

针对当时（1998年）亚洲金融危机对可口可乐的影响，巴菲特表示他从不关心宏观预测。他用生动的“味觉记忆（Taste Memory）”理论解释了为什么可乐优于其他饮料：你可能会喝腻橙汁或根汁汽水，但可乐没有味觉记忆，这使得它拥有极高的重复消费率。他指出，相对于人的购买力，可乐在过去几十年里实际上变得更便宜了。

[原文] [Student]: Coca-Cola just announced droing expectations ... in light the fact that Koke has a lot of their profits coming up outside the United States how do you think the the Asian crisis so to speak is going to affect Co

[译文] [Student]: 可口可乐刚刚宣布下调预期……考虑到可口可乐很多利润来自美国以外，您认为所谓的亚洲危机会如何影响它？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: basically I love it but but uh because the market for Coca-Cola products is going to grow far faster over the next 20 years uh internationally than it will in the United States ... so the fact that it it's going to be a tough period for who knows 3 months or 3 years but it won't be tough for 20 years,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 基本上，我喜欢这样。因为未来20年，可口可乐产品的国际市场增长速度将远快于美国本土……所以，这可能是一段艰难时期，谁知道是3个月还是3年，但这在20年的维度上不会是艰难的。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: in 1936 when I first bought six of those for a quarter and sold them for a nickel each ... that was a 6 and2 ounce bottle for a nickel at that time it's now a 12 ounce can ... you essentially can buy the 12 ounces for not much more than 20 cents so you're paying not much more than twice the per ounce price of 1936

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 1936年，我第一次花25美分买了一手（6瓶）可乐，然后以每瓶5美分卖出……那时5美分买的是6.5盎司的小瓶装。现在是12盎司的罐装……你基本上花20美分多一点就能买到12盎司。所以你现在付出的每盎司单价，仅仅是1936年的两倍多一点。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: one simple fact about really all colas ... Cola has no taste memory you can drink one of these at 9:00 11:00 3:00 the afternoon 5:00 the one at 5:00 will taste just as good to you as the one you drank early in the morning you can't do that with cream soda root beer orange grape you name it all of those things accumulate on you,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 关于所有可乐有一个简单的事实……可乐没有味觉记忆。你可以在早上9点、11点、下午3点、5点各喝一瓶，下午5点那瓶的味道和你早上喝的第一瓶一样好。你没法对奶油苏打水、根汁汽水、橘子味或葡萄味饮料这么做，所有那些味道都会让你产生累积（厌腻感）。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: there is no taste memory to Cola and that means that you get people around the world that are heavy users that'll drink five a day ... they'll never do that with with other products so you get this incredible per capita consumption

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 可乐没有味觉记忆。这意味着全世界会有很多重度用户每天喝5瓶……他们绝不会对其他产品这么做，所以你会得到这种惊人的人均消费量。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: Coca-Cola went public in I think it was 1919 stock sold for $40 a share ... one year later it's selling for $19 gone down 50% in one year ... sugar prices increased and the bers were rebellious and a whole bunch of things ... years later you'd have seen the Great Depression then you'd have seen World War II ... and you'd seen thermonuclear weapons ... there's always a reason but in the end if you bought one share for 40 bucks and reinvest the dividends it'd be worth about 5 million now

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 可口可乐在1919年上市，股价40美元一股……一年后跌到了19美元，一年内跌了50%……当时糖价上涨，装瓶商造反，有一大堆问题……几年后你会经历大萧条，然后是二战……然后是核武器威胁……总会有（不买的）理由。但最终，如果你当时花40美元买了一股并把股息再投资，现在它大约值500万美元。

章节 10：投资失误——错过的几十亿与“航空股戒酒会”

📝 本节摘要：

当被问及犯过的最大错误时，巴菲特指出，“错失的错误（Mistakes of Omission）”（看懂了却没买）远比“做的错误（Mistakes of Commission）”代价更大。他列举了在医疗改革期间错过的医疗股和房利美（Fannie Mae）。他还幽默地提到了购买全美航空（US Air）的惨痛经历，笑称自己现在有一个专门的心理热线，每当想买航空股时就会打过去求助。

[原文] [Student]: what investment mistakes you made

[译文] [Student]: 您犯过哪些投资错误？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: the biggest mistakes have not been mistakes of of commission they've been mistakes of omission they're where we knew enough about the business to do something and for one reason or another we sat there sucking our thumbs instead of doing something,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 最大的错误不是那些我“做了什么”的错误，而是“没做什么”的错误（错失之过）。那是我们对该生意足够了解，可以采取行动，但因为某种原因，我们只是坐在那里吮吸大拇指（发呆），而不是采取行动。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: when when the Clinton Health Care Program was proposed and they all went in the tank uh we should have made a ton of money out of that uh because I could understand it I I didn't make

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 当克林顿医改方案被提出时，所有医疗股都暴跌。我们本应该从中赚一大笔钱，因为我能理解它，但我没赚到。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: the mistakes you see we made a isn't we I made a mistake uh buying U US Air preferred some years ago ... I now have a 800 number I call every time I think about buying stock in an airline and they talk me down they say you know I say I'm worn I'm an aholic and then the guy says you know keep talking don't hang up you know and don't do anything rash and finally I get over it,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 你们能看到的错误——不是“我们”，是“我”犯的错误——是几年前买入全美航空（US Air）的优先股……我现在有一个800电话号码，每当我想要买航空股的时候我就打过去，他们会劝我。我会说：“我是沃伦，我是个‘航空股成瘾者’（Air-aholic）。”然后那个人会说：“继续说，别挂电话，别做傻事。”最终我就挺过去了。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: we bought it because it was an attractive security but it was in not in an attractive business I did the same thing with Solomon I bought an attractive Security in a in a business that I wouldn't have bought the equity in

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我们买它是因为它是一个有吸引力的证券，但它不在一个有吸引力的行业里。我在所罗门兄弟公司上也犯了同样的错。我买了一个有吸引力的证券，但这门生意本身的股票我是不会买的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: sticking to businesses you understand and uh so if there's a generic mistake of of getting outside of your circle of competence and you know buying something because somebody tips you on it or something of the sort in in an area you don't know anything about I mean that you should learn something from that,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 要坚持投你懂的生意。所以，如果说有一种通用的错误，那就是跨出了你的能力圈，因为某人给你透露了消息或者类似的理由，去买你不懂领域的东西。你应该从中吸取教训。,

章节 11：市场哲学——为什么我们要祈祷股市大跌？

📝 本节摘要：

巴菲特解释了为什么他从不关心利率和市场预测。他用“汉堡包”和“超市”做比喻：如果你未来是股票的净买入者，你应该希望股价下跌，就像你希望汉堡包打折一样。他批评华尔街通过鼓励“频繁交易”来赚钱（像医生靠换药赚钱），而投资者靠“不动如山”赚钱。

[原文] [Student]: where are we going what's going to happen with interest rates

[译文] [Student]: 我们的经济走向如何？利率会发生什么变化？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I don't think about the macro stuff ... if you talk about is important but in my view it's not knowable understanding Coca-Cola is no knowable ... whether it turns out to be important depends on where your valuation leads you and the current price and all of that but we have never either bought a business or not bought a business because of Any macro feeling of any kind,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我不考虑宏观的东西……你说这种事很重要，但在我看来它是不可知的。理解可口可乐是可知的……这是否重要取决于估值和当前价格。但我们从未因为任何宏观感觉而决定买入或不买入一家企业。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: anybody that is going to be a net saver practically everybody in this room is more likely to be a net buyer of stocks over the next 10 years than they are a net seller so every one of you should prefer lower prices I mean if you're going to be a net Eater of hamburger in the next 10 years you want hamburger to go down unless you're a cattle cattle producer

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 任何即将成为“净储蓄者”的人——这个房间里几乎每个人在未来10年都更可能是股票的净买家而不是净卖家——所以你们每个人都应该偏爱更低的价格。我是说，如果你在未来10年里是汉堡包的净消费者，你会希望汉堡包价格下跌，除非你是养牛的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: Stock Exchange is a big Supermarket of companies and you're going to be buying stocks what do you want to have happen you want those stocks to go down way down,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 证券交易所就是一个贩卖公司的大型超市，而你要去买股票。你想发生什么？你应该希望那些股票跌下去，跌得很惨。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: Wall Street makes its money on activity you make your money on inactivity ... if everybody in this room trades their portfolio around every day with every other person you know you're all going to end up broke and and and and the intermediary is going to end up with all the money,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 华尔街靠“动”（交易活跃）赚钱，你靠“不动”赚钱……如果这个房间里的每个人每天都和别人互相交易自己的投资组合，你们最终都会破产，而中间商会赚走所有的钱。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: he's like a doctor who gets paid out how often he gets you to change pills I mean basically I mean he getes you one pill and it cures you the rest of your life and he's got one sale one transaction and and that's it but if he can convince you that changing pills every day is the way to great health uh it'll be great for him,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 他（经纪人）就像一个医生，他是靠让你换药的频率来赚钱的。我是说，如果他给你一种药，治好了你余生的病，他就只做成了一笔生意，仅此而已。但如果他能让你相信，每天换药才是健康的秘诀，那对他来说就太棒了。,

章节 12：卵巢彩票——对运气的终极思考

📝 本节摘要：

在访谈的最后，巴菲特分享了他深刻的人生观——“卵巢彩票（Ovarian Lottery）”。他让学生想象在出生前24小时设计这个世界，但不知道自己会出生在什么阶层、性别或智商水平。他承认自己不仅生在了美国，还恰好拥有在这个市场经济体系中被高度奖赏的“资本配置”天赋。他强调，他的成功很大程度上源于这种巨大的运气，因此要通过工作和回馈社会来利用好这份运气。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: all you know is you're going to take one ball out of a barrel that's got 5.8 billion you're going to participate in what I call the ovarian Lottery you're going to get one ball out of there and that's and that is the most important thing that's ever going to happen to you in your life,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 你所知道的只是你要从一个装有58亿个球（代表当时全球人口）的桶里摸出一个球。你要参与我所谓的“卵巢彩票”。你会摸到一个球，那将是你生命中发生的最重要的事情。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: CU that is going to control whether you're born here or in Afghanistan or whether you're born with an IQ of 130 or an IQ of 70 uh it's going to determine a whole lot

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 因为这将决定你是出生在这里（美国）还是阿富汗，是出生就有130的智商还是70的智商。这将决定很多事情。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: see I'm I'm ideally wired for the system I fell into here I mean I came out and I got something that enables me to allocate Capital you know nothing so wonderful about that if all of us were stranded on a desert is you know we all landed there we were never going to get off of it the most valuable person would be the one that could raise the most rice,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 看，我的“出厂设置”完美适配了我所处的这个系统。我拥有配置资本的天赋。这本身没什么了不起的。如果我们都被困在一个荒岛上，永远离不开，那么最有价值的人将是那个最会种大米的人。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so what you're saying is I'm in the luckiest 1% of the world right now right now sitting in this room top 1% of the world well that's the way I feel I mean I've been lucky to be born where I was cuz it was 50 to1 against me in in the United States when I was born,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 所以你们所说的是，我现在处于世界上最幸运的1%之中。就在这个房间里，我们是世界的顶尖1%。这就是我的感觉。我很幸运能出生在我出生的地方，因为我出生时，生在美国的概率是50比1（原文意指只有1/50的几率生在美国，其他地方概率更大）。,

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so I've been extremely lucky so I would like to be lucky again and and if I'm lucky then the way to do it is to play out that game and and and and do something you enjoy you know all your life and be associated with people you like,

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 所以我极其幸运。我想再次变得幸运。如果我是幸运的，那么利用这份幸运的方式就是玩好这场游戏，做你一辈子都喜欢做的事，并与你喜欢的人为伍。,

章节 13：人生原则——只与喜欢的人共事

📝 本节摘要：

在访谈的尾声，巴菲特分享了他对自己人生的最终反思。他强调“只与喜欢的人共事”这一原则。他打了一个非常犀利的比方：如果你已经很富有了，还为了赚钱去忍受那些让你反感的人，这就像是“已经很有钱了却还为了钱结婚”一样疯狂。最后，他再次幽默地自嘲了全美航空（US Air）的投资失误，在全场的笑声与掌声中结束了演讲。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I only work with people I like you know I I don't I don't if I could make a hundred Million by buying a business with some guy that caused my stomach to churn I'd say no because I say that's just like marrying for money which probably isn't a very good idea in any circumstances but if you're already rich it's crazy right I am not going to marry for money

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 我只和我喜欢的人一起工作。你知道，如果我能通过和一个让我胃里翻江倒海（stomach to churn）的人一起买生意而赚一亿美元，我会说“不”。因为我会说，那就像是为了钱结婚，这在任何情况下可能都不是个好主意，但如果你已经很有钱了还这么做，那就是疯了，对吧？我绝不会为了钱结婚。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so I would do I would I would do almost exactly uh what I've done except I don't think got have bought the US Air thanks

[译文] [Warren Buffett]: 所以，如果人生重来，我几乎会做和我现在所做的完全一样的事情……除了我觉得我不会买全美航空（US Air）。谢谢大家。

💡 整理者结语 (Editor's Note)

这份“佛罗里达大学访谈录”是巴菲特思想体系中最完整、最通俗易懂的影像资料之一。通过这13个章节的精读，我们梳理出了巴菲特投资哲学的核心框架：