章节 1：开篇与“提示词已过时”的大胆预测

📝 本节摘要：

本节包含访谈的精彩预告（Teaser）及正式开场。主持人介绍了来自Google Labs的Josh Woodward。Josh首先抛出了一个极具挑衅性的观点：对于终端用户而言，在一个小框里编写长篇“提示词”（Prompts）的做法正在迅速变得过时。他预测未来将出现两极分化——AI工程师继续编写复杂的结构化提示词，而普通用户将通过拖拽文档、图片、视频等多模态（Multimodal）形式来提供“上下文”（Context），从而取代繁琐的文字描述。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: what I found too Building Products over the years is it's very common everyone talks about product Market fit you'll know it when you see it and all that which is true but at least for me I've always felt in the first part of Building Products you iterate a lot on the product and sometimes you forget to iterate on the market and finding the right Market side is also just as important as the right product and you have to connect those two and so I think that in these early stage things with Mariner that's where we are it's like does is it possible for a computer to like an AI model to drive your computer yes that's a huge new capability is it accurate sometimes is it fast not at all yet like that's kind of where we are um in terms of the actual kind of use case or the capabilities and then it's about finding the right Market

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我在这些年打造产品（Building Products）的过程中发现，大家都很常谈论产品市场契合度（Product Market fit），说什么“当你看到它时你就知道了”，诸如此类，这确实没错。但至少对我来说，我总觉得在打造产品的初期，你会在产品上进行大量的迭代，但有时你会忘记在市场端进行迭代。找到正确的市场切入点与打磨正确的产品同等重要，你必须将这两者连接起来。所以我认为，在像Mariner这样的早期项目中，我们正处于这个阶段。比如，计算机——或者说AI模型——有没有可能操控你的电脑？是的，这是一种巨大的新能力。它准确吗？有时候准。它快吗？完全不快，目前还不行。这大概就是我们在实际用例或能力方面所处的现状，接下来的关键在于找到合适的市场。

[原文] [Host]: today we're excited to welcome Josh Woodward from Google Labs the team behind exciting Google AI launches like notebook LM and the computer use agent Mariner Google Labs is Google's experimental arm that's in charge of pioneering what's next and how we interact with technology by thinking about how the world might look like decades from now Josh is helping to reimagine human AI interaction from the provocative claim that writing prompts is already becoming archaic to the emergence of multimodal AI as a default user experience he shares insights on the rapid Innovation culture in Google Labs offers a glimpse of what's next in generative video and much more Josh thank you so much for joining me and Ry today we are excited to hear everything that you're doing over at Google Labs

[译文] [Host]: 今天我们要非常兴奋地欢迎来自Google Labs的Josh Woodward，该团队通过Notebook LM和计算机操作代理Mariner等令人兴奋的Google AI产品发布而闻名。 Google Labs是Google的实验部门，负责通过思考几十年后的世界面貌，来开拓未来的技术以及我们与技术交互的方式。Josh正在通过一些挑衅性的主张来帮助重构人机交互（human AI interaction），比如他认为编写提示词（prompts）已经变得过时，以及多模态AI（multimodal AI）将成为默认的用户体验。他将分享关于Google Labs快速创新文化的见解，带我们一以此瞥生成式视频的未来，以及更多内容。Josh，非常感谢你今天加入我和Ry的对话，我们很兴奋能听到你们在Google Labs所做的一切。

[原文] [Host]: maybe first to start you mentioned a provocative topic to me uh on your way in here writing prompts is old fashed what do you mean by that

[译文] [Host]: 也许我们先从开头说起，你在进来的路上跟我提到了一个颇具挑衅性的话题：写提示词（writing prompts）已经过时了（old fashioned）。你这是什么意思？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: okay so um thanks for having me uh I do think it's old fion we'll look back at this time from an enduser experience and say I can't believe we tried to write paragraph level prompts into these little boxes um so I kind of see it splitting a little bit right now on the one hand as a developer an AI engineer you should see some of the prompts that we're writing in Labs right now are these beautiful like multi-page prompts but I think for IND users they don't have time for that and you have to be almost like some sort of Whisperer to be able to unlock the models ability

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 好的，首先感谢邀请。我确实认为它过时了。未来回顾这段时间，从终端用户体验的角度来看，我们会说：“真不敢相信我们曾经试图在这些小框框里写段落级别的提示词。”所以我认为目前情况正在发生一点分化：一方面，作为开发者或AI工程师，你应该看看我们在Labs里写的那些提示词，它们就像美丽的、长达数页的篇章；但我认为对于终端用户（end users）来说，他们没有时间做这些，而且你几乎得成为某种“低语者”（Whisperer，指能与难搞之物沟通的专家）才能解锁模型的能力。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: so we're seeing way more pull and traction and I kind of seeing this in other products in the industry too right now how can you bring your own assets maybe as a prompt drag in a PDF or an image sort of recombine things like that to sort of shortcut this giant paragraph writing so I think it's going to kind of divide I think as Engineers AI Engineers you'll keep writing long stuff but I think most people in the world we're probably in a phase that'll sort of fade out here pretty soon

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 所以我们看到了更多的需求和牵引力——我在行业内的其他产品中也看到了这种趋势——即你如何能带入你自己的资产（assets）作为提示词？比如拖入一个PDF或一张图片，将这些东西重新组合，从而作为一种捷径来避开撰写巨大的文本段落。所以我认为将会出现分流：作为工程师、AI工程师，你们会继续写很长的东西；但我认为对于世界上大多数人来说，我们可能正处于一个这一现象很快就会淡出的阶段。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: so the form of of the context will change right you know so you still have to get give the model something right but it might be that you can communicate it via picture or communicate it via like just look at this set of documents yeah your voice a video any of that these models love context so the context is not going to go away but we're making a lot of bets right now that the type of context and the way you deliver the context that's changing really fast right now

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 所以上下文（context）的形式将会改变，对吧。你知道，你仍然需要给模型提供一些东西，对吧？但这可能是通过图片来交流，或者通过比如“看这一组文档”、你的语音、一段视频等任何形式来交流。这些模型喜欢上下文，所以上下文本身不会消失。但我们现在正在下重注的是，上下文的类型以及你交付上下文的方式，正在发生非常快速的变化。

[原文] [Host]: I love it okay uh we're going to go deeper into the future of prompts and multi mulle models in this episode

[译文] [Host]: 我喜欢这个观点。好的，我们在这一集中会更深入地探讨提示词的未来和多模态模型。

章节 2：Google Labs 的使命、“从0到1”的极客文化与人才画像

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，主持人邀请 Josh 介绍 Google Labs 的核心使命。Josh 解释道，Labs 是 Google 内部一个“从 0 到 1”的创新引擎，独立于传统核心产品线之外，旨在探索未来技术（如创意、软件开发等）。他详细阐述了 Labs 的独特文化：追求极速（从想法到用户手中仅需 50-100 天）、庆祝小规模的胜利（如 1 万周活跃用户）、以及一种兼具初创公司“拼劲”与 DeepMind 科研深度的混合体质。此外，Josh 还分享了他们寻找“独角兽”人才的标准——既懂深度模型技术，又具备敏锐的消费级产品感知力。

[原文] [Host]: maybe before we do all that say a word on what is Google Labs you know what what's the mission and uh tell us a little bit more about how you sit where you sit with inside Google

[译文] [Host]: 也许在做那些之前，先简单介绍一下什么是 Google Labs，你知道，它的使命是什么？再跟我们多讲讲你们在 Google 内部处于什么样的位置？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: yeah so Google Labs if anyone's heard about it we had one a long time ago that went dormant for a while and this is kind of back about three years ago it got started it's really a collection of Builders we're trying to build new AI products that people love so they can be consumer products B2B products developer products it's all zero to one

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 是的，关于 Google Labs，如果有人听说过的话，我们很久以前有一个，后来沉寂（dormant）了一段时间。大概三年前它回归了，并重新启动。它实际上是一群构建者（Builders）的集合。我们试图构建人们喜爱的 AI 新产品，它们可以是消费级产品、B2B 产品、开发者产品，全都是从 0 到 1 的。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um it tends to attract an interesting mix of people maybe people who have been at Google a while but also a bunch of startup Founders and exf Founders and so we kind of mix these people together and we basically say what's the future of a certain area going to look like say the future of creativity or software development or entertainment and they go off in small little teams and they just start building and shipping

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 嗯，它倾向于吸引一群有趣的混合型人才，也许是在 Google 待了一段时间的人，但也有一堆初创公司创始人（startup Founders）和前创始人。我们将这些人混合在一起，基本上会问：某个特定领域的未来会是什么样？比如创造力、软件开发或娱乐的未来。然后他们分成几个小团队，直接开始构建并发布产品。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: and so that's how it operates and it sort of sits outside the big traditional Google product areas but we work a lot together but there's kind of an interesting interplay there and I think that's been part of what's been fun about it is you can kind of dip in maybe work with search or Chrome or other parts of Google but you also kind of have the space to explore and experiment and try to disrupt too and that's that's kind of what we're up to

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 这就是它的运作方式。它在某种程度上独立于那些传统的 Google 大型产品领域之外，但我们有很多合作。那里有一种有趣的互动，我认为这也是其乐趣的一部分：你可以介入其中（dip in），也许与搜索、Chrome 或 Google 的其他部门合作，但你同时也拥有探索、实验甚至尝试颠覆（disrupt）的空间。这大概就是我们在做的事情。

[原文] [Host]: how do you create the culture inside of labs that you want right if you think about there's got to be a lot more failure presumably than there are in other parts there's got to be a different metric for Success than there is just the sheer scale of Google so what is the culture you're trying to create and how do you create it

[译文] [Host]: 你是如何在 Labs 内部创造你想要的文化的？如果你想一想，这里的失败率大概比其他部门要高得多，成功的衡量指标（metric for Success）肯定也不同于 Google 纯粹的规模效应。所以你试图创造什么样的文化？又是如何创造的？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: so we really pride ourselves in trying to be really fast moving as a culture so we'll go from an idea to end users hands 50 to 100 days um and that's something that we do all kinds of things to try to make that happen so speed matters a lot especially in kind of an AI platform shift moment

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我们非常自豪地致力于打造一种快速行动的文化。我们会让一个想法从诞生到交付到终端用户手中只需 50 到 100 天。为了实现这一点，我们做了各种各样的事情。所以速度非常重要，特别是在这样一个 AI 平台级转型（AI platform shift）的时刻。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: the other thing is we think a lot about sort of big things start small and one of the things if you're in a place like Google you're surrounded by some products that have billions of people using them and people forget that all these things started with solving usually for one user and one paino

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 另一件事是，我们经常思考“大事源于细微”（big things start small）。如果你身处像 Google 这样的地方，你会周围环绕着拥有数十亿用户的产品，人们往往忘记了所有这些产品最初通常都是为了解决一个用户的一个痛点（pain point）而开始的。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: and so for us we get really excited if we get like 10,000 weekly active users it's like you know we'll celebrate that that's a big moment when we're starting a new project and for a lot of our other kind of groups inside Google their dashboards don't count that low right I mean it's like so there's kind of this moment where you know the size of what we're trying to do is very small um it probably looks a lot like companies you all work with honestly from that uh perspective

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 所以对我们来说，如果我们获得了比如 1 万个周活跃用户（weekly active users），我们会非常兴奋。你知道我们会庆祝这个，这在启动新项目时是一个重要时刻。而对于 Google 内部的许多其他团队来说，他们的仪表盘（dashboards）甚至不统计这么低的数字，对吧？所以会有这样的时刻，你知道我们试图做的事情规模很小。老实说，从那个角度来看，它可能很像你们（风投）合作的那些公司。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: and I think the other thing we're trying to do is because we sit outside the big groups at Google we kind of have one foot in the outside world we do a lot of building and kind of co-creating with startups and others but also one foot inside Google Deep Mind and so we've got kind of a view of where the research Frontier is and more importantly where it's going and so we're often trying to take some of those capabilities in

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我认为我们试图做的另一件事是，因为我们独立于 Google 的大型团队之外，我们是一只脚踏在外部世界——我们与初创公司和其他机构进行了大量的构建和共同创造（co-creating）；但同时另一只脚踏在 Google DeepMind 内部。因此，我们能够看到研究前沿（research Frontier）在哪里，更重要的是它将走向何方，所以我们要经常试图引入这些能力。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: so we take a lot of Pride and sort of finding people who are very creative people who are almost like see themselves as underdogs um they have kind of a hustle to them and so we have this whole dock called labs in a nutshell and my favorite section in the dock is called who thrives in labs and there's like 16 or 17 bullets that just list them out um and that's kind of how we try to build the culture but you do have to normalize things like failure you have to think about things differently around promotion compensation all these things that you kind of would do in a company too

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 所以我们非常自豪能找到那些极具创造力的人，那些几乎把自己视为“挑战者”（underdogs）的人，他们身上有一种“拼劲”（hustle）。我们有一份完整的文档叫“Labs 概览”（labs in a nutshell），文档里我最喜欢的部分叫“谁在 Labs 里能如鱼得水”（who thrives in labs），那里列出了大约 16 或 17 个要点。这就是我们要构建文化的方式。但你确实必须让像失败这样的事情变得常态化（normalize），你必须在晋升、薪酬等方面有不同的思考方式，就像你在（初创）公司里会做的那样。

[原文] [Host]: you mentioned the Deep Mind links I think that is super cool what have you found is the kind of Ideal kind of product Builder Persona inside Labs is it somebody with a research background is it somebody with a who comes from a successful consumer product background is it you know is there the magical unicorn that's great at both research and products what type of person

[译文] [Host]: 你提到了与 DeepMind 的联系，我觉得这超级酷。你发现 Labs 内部理想的“产品构建者画像”（product Builder Persona）是什么样的？是有研究背景的人？还是来自成功的消费级产品背景的人？还是说，你知道，存在那种既擅长研究又擅长产品的神奇“独角兽”（magical unicorn）？是哪种人？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: we take as many unicorns as we can find and we actually I found some uh which is great you do look for that kind of deep model expertise as well as kind of like a consumer sensibility in terms of those people exist they exist they're great too um if you can find them

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我们会尽可能多地招揽我们能找到的“独角兽”，实际上我还真找到了一些，这太棒了。你确实在寻找那种既有深度模型专业知识（deep model expertise），又具备消费级产品敏锐度（consumer sensibility）的人。这种人是存在的，他们存在，如果你能找到他们，他们也非常出色。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: uh and we also kind of have found ways to kind of train or develop people so that's another thing we think a lot about is like how do you bring in often people that might not be the normal talent that you look for so like we're always in the interesting kind of zone of like who's undervalued who's kind of like really interesting but maybe not on paper but when you interact with them look at their GitHub history I mean there's all these different signals you can look at um but yeah that's kind of how we would think about it

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 此外，我们也找到了一些培训或培养人才的方法。这是我们思考很多的另一件事：如何引入那些通常不是你会寻找的常规人才？比如我们总是处于一个有趣的区域，去寻找谁被低估了（undervalued）？谁非常有趣，但也许在简历（paper）上看不出来？但当你与他们互动，查看他们的 GitHub 历史时——我是说，你可以看各种不同的信号。是的，这大概就是我们的思考方式。

章节 3：决策的艺术——从“鱼塘理论”到 NotebookLM 与生成式视频

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，Josh 揭示了 Labs 独特的选题逻辑：采用“自上而下”的战略视角（寻找正确的“鱼塘”，即符合 Google 战略方向的领域）与“自下而上”的小团队（4-5人）探索相结合的方式。他以 NotebookLM 为例，阐述了核心设计理念——“AI 操纵杆”（AI Joystick），即让用户通过自带数据源来掌控 AI，从而产生安全感与控制感。随后，话题转向生成式视频（Veo/V2），Josh 指出虽然目前计算成本高昂，但随着成本曲线的下降，以及关键指标“挑片率”（Cherry-pick rate，指生成可用素材所需的尝试次数）的大幅优化，视频生成正处于从“几乎不可能”走向“可能”的转折点。

[原文] [Host]: really cool how do you decide what projects to take on next is it is it bottom up top down how does that work

[译文] [Host]: 真酷。你们是如何决定接下来要做什么项目的？是自下而上，还是自上而下？具体是怎么运作的？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: yeah great question we kind of do um a little bit of a blend actually so at the top down side we're looking at what are the areas that are kind of on mission for Google that are strategic to Google because we sit inside it so we're thinking about ourselves in that broader context so that may be for example like what would the future of software development look like there's tens of thousands of software developers at Google and obviously this is an area that AI is clearly going to make a big change in so we'll be thinking about could we build things for other googlers but also externally how do we build things like that

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 是的，好问题。实际上我们将两者混合了一下。在“自上而下”的一端，我们会看哪些领域符合 Google 的使命，对 Google 具有战略意义，因为我们就身处其中，所以我们需要在更广阔的背景下思考自身定位。举个例子，比如“软件开发的未来会是什么样？”Google 内部有成千上万名软件开发人员，显然 AI 将给这一领域带来巨大变革。所以我们会思考：我们能为其他 Google 员工构建什么工具？对外我们又该如何构建这类东西？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: so we take that kind of top down view think of it as almost I'm from Oklahoma we like to fish a lot in the summer but like you're trying to figure out what's the right Pond to fish in so we put a lot of thought into those like ponds to fish in but then we let a lot of these teams often their four or five person teams come up with the right user problems to go try to solve and that's where we kind of meet in the middle

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 所以我们会采取这种自上而下的视角。你可以把它想象成——我来自俄克拉荷马州，我们夏天很喜欢钓鱼——你得先搞清楚“哪个鱼塘是对的”。所以我们花很多心思去选“钓鱼的池塘”，但随后我们会让那些通常只有四五人的小团队去提出真正需要解决的用户问题，这就是我们在中间汇合的方式。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: and I think for a lot of other teams they might look at what we do it's a little chaotic you know we don't have like multi- quarter road maps like we're trying to survive to the next whatever 10,000 user Milestone and then try to grow it uh but I would say it's kind of that sort of blend

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我想对于很多其他团队来说，他们看我们的做法可能会觉得有点混乱。你知道，我们没有那种跨越多个季度的路线图（road maps），我们更像是努力生存到下一个里程碑，比如达到 1 万用户，然后再试着增长。但我会说，这大概就是那种混合模式。

[原文] [Host]: what's one of the products that you guys have built that you're excited about now

[译文] [Host]: 你们构建的产品中，哪一个是你现在比较兴奋的？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: oh yeah so I guess if you've ever used um the Gemini API or AI Studio notebook LM or any of VO any of these things these are products that we've kind of worked on from Labs I mean maybe I'll talk about one that's maybe well better known and one that's coming up so the very excited about where notebook lm's going I think we've hit on something where you can bring your own sources into it and really AI just like grips into that stuff

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 噢，是的。如果你用过 Gemini API、AI Studio、NotebookLM 或者 Veo 等等，这些都是我们在 Labs 里做过的产品。我想我也许可以谈谈一个大家比较熟知的，还有一个即将推出的。我对 NotebookLM 的发展方向非常兴奋。我认为我们通过它触及到了某个痛点：你可以把自己的源文件（sources）带进来，而 AI 真的能紧紧抓住这些内容。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um and then you're able to kind of create things so a lot of people maybe have heard the podcasts that came out last year there's so much coming that follows this pattern um so watch this space uh they um there's just a lot you can do with that pattern and I think what's really interesting is it gives people a lot of control they feel like they're steering the AI we have this term on the team at actually one of the marketing people came up was like an AI joystick that you're kind of controlling it so that's interesting

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 然后你就能创造出各种东西。很多人可能听过我们去年推出的播客功能（Audio Overviews），接下来还有很多遵循这种模式的功能会推出，所以请密切关注这个领域。这种模式能做的事情太多了。我认为真正有趣的是，它给了人们很大的控制权，让他们感觉自己在驾驶 AI。我们团队里有个术语——实际上是一个市场部同事想出来的——叫“AI 操纵杆”（AI joystick），意味着你在控制它，这很有趣。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um I would say there's a lot of stuff coming right now we're very excited about vo um Google's imagery model and sort of video model and where those kind of come together so we've got really interesting products coming along in this space I think maybe we can talk about that some at some point but I think generative video is kind of moved from this moment of almost possible to possible

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我想说现在有很多东西即将问世。我们要非常兴奋的是 Veo——Google 的图像模型以及视频模型，以及它们如何结合在一起。在这个领域我们有一些非常有趣的产品正在开发中。我想我们也许多多少少可以聊聊这个，但我认为生成式视频（generative video）已经从“几乎可能”的时刻迈向了“真正可能”的时刻。

[原文] [Host]: and I think let talk about it now tell us yeah yeah

[译文] [Host]: 我想我们现在就来聊聊这个吧，跟我们说说。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: well I think it's it's interesting these models are still huge to run like V2 takes hundreds of computers right so the the cost is very high but just like we've seen with the text based models like Gemini and even ones from open Ai and anthropic you know the cost is reduced like 97 times in the last year so if you kind of assume cost curves like that what you're going to see with these vo models what's kind of brand new say with V2 is it's really cracked really high quality and physics

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 嗯，我觉得很有趣的是，运行这些模型仍然非常庞大。比如 Veo 2 需要数百台计算机来运行，对吧，所以成本非常高。但就像我们在 Gemini 这样的文本模型，甚至 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的模型上看到的那样，你知道，成本在过去一年里降低了约 97 倍。所以如果你假设成本曲线会这样发展，那么你在这些 Veo 模型上会看到的是——比如 Veo 2 的全新之处在于——它真的攻克了高质量画面和物理规律（physics）的难题。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um so the motion the scenes the if you talk to a lot of these AI filmmakers they talk about what's your cherry pick rate which is a term for like how many times do you have to run it to pick out the things that's really good and what we're seeing with something like VI is the cherry pick rate is going down to like one time got what I want and so the instruction following the ability for the model to kind of adhere to what you want is is really cool so I think when you put that in tools um you're now able to convey ideas in a whole different way

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 所以在动作、场景方面，如果你跟很多 AI 电影制作人聊天，他们会谈论“挑片率”（cherry pick rate），这个术语指的是你必须运行多少次才能挑出真正好的素材。我们在像 Veo 这样的产品上看到的是，挑片率正在降到接近“一次就搞定”的程度。所以指令遵循能力（instruction following）——即模型坚持按照你的意愿执行的能力——真的很酷。所以我认为当你把它放入工具中时，你现在能够以一种全新的方式来传达创意。

章节 4：生成式视频的深水区——技术瓶颈、经济学与未来的可操控娱乐

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，对话深入探讨了 AI 视频生成的“已解决”与“未解决”难题。Josh 指出，虽然物理模拟和光影质量已取得巨大突破（不再是“威尔·史密斯吃面”那样的灾难现场），但在服务成本和效率上仍有待优化。他强调真正的价值将出现在“应用层”，并提出了“降低门槛，抬高天花板”的产品哲学。此外，双方还讨论了视频生成的高昂成本如何推动商业模式创新（如按产出付费），并畅想了未来的娱乐形式——视频将从被动观看转变为“可操控”、“高度个性化”且“无限重组”的互动体验。

[原文] [Host]: what do you think are the solved problems and the unsolved problems in AI video generation cuz I remember you know uh last year it was like you know even last year there were all these you know there was so much talk about you know generative video is you know a physics Simulator for example right right can kind of emulate physics and it's like that's amazing is the physics stuff solved do you think like what else is you know what's done and then what's to be solved

[译文] [Host]: 你认为在 AI 视频生成领域，哪些是已解决的问题，哪些是未解决的问题？因为我记得去年，即使是去年，也有很多关于生成式视频是某种“物理模拟器”（physics Simulator）的讨论，比如它能模拟物理规律，这太神奇了。你认为物理方面的问题解决了吗？还有哪些是已经完成的，哪些是有待解决的？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: yeah I would say physics is a hard thing to solve forever but it's close I would say it's close enough yeah but you're six months ago year ago few years ago you had Will Smith eating you know pasta was a disaster and then even last year you had kind of these videos of like knives cutting off fingers and there were six fingers you know it was like that's where we were um so I think physics tons of problem ress the ability to do photo realistic quality uh very huge progress the ability to kind of do jump scenes and jump cuts and different sort of camera controls that's really coming into almost solved there's paths to solve all this stuff

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 是的，我想说物理是一个很难被彻底解决的问题，但它已经很接近了，我会说它已经足够接近了。如果是六个月前、一年前或几年前，你会看到威尔·史密斯（Will Smith）吃意大利面那种灾难级的视频；甚至去年，你还会看到那种刀切手指、或者出现六根手指的视频。那就是我们当时的状况。所以我认为物理方面取得了大量进展，实现照片级逼真质量（photo realistic quality）的能力也有了巨大进步。做跳跃场景（jump scenes）、跳切（jump cuts）和不同类型的摄像机控制的能力也快要解决了。解决所有这些问题都有路径可循。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um still going to solve the efficiency and serving cost I would say and probably still have to figure out a little bit more of like the application layer of this cuz I think this is another big opportunity as we've seen like a lot of other modalities with AI you get kind of the model layer you get kind of the tool layer and then the real value we think is in this application layer and so I think that's really interesting to rethink workflows around video and I think that's pretty wide open right now

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 嗯，我想说我们仍然需要解决效率和服务成本（serving cost）的问题，可能还得进一步弄清楚这东西的应用层（application layer）。因为我认为这是另一个巨大的机会，就像我们在其他 AI 模态中看到的那样，你有模型层，有工具层，但我们认为真正的价值在于应用层。所以我认为重新思考围绕视频的工作流非常有趣，目前这方面还是一片蓝海（wide open）。

[原文] [Host]: do you think the models are capable of you know even having video that is malleable at the application layer so for example if I want to have character consistency between scenes are the models even capable of that or I imagine you want model steerability in order to be able to kind of work with it at the application Level like what what is model Readiness um and what's required in order to be able to do magic at at the application

[译文] [Host]: 你认为目前的模型有能力让视频在应用层具有可塑性（malleable）吗？例如，如果我想在不同场景之间保持角色一致性（character consistency），模型能做到吗？我想象你需要模型具备可操控性（steerability），才能在应用层面进行操作。目前模型的就绪程度（model Readiness）如何？要在应用层创造“魔法”需要什么条件？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: yeah so I was talking to a couple AI filmmakers this week and what they're really interested in is exactly what you're saying character consistency scene consistency camera control it's almost like we need to build an AI camera you think of some of the cameras that are kind of filming us right now this is sort of like Decades of Technology that's kind of been perfected for a certain sort of input output and I think were on the verge of kind of needing to create a new AI camera

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 是的，我这周刚和几位 AI 电影制作人聊过，他们真正感兴趣的正是你所说的：角色一致性、场景一致性、摄像机控制。这就像我们需要构建一台“AI 摄像机”（AI camera）。你想想现在正在拍摄我们的这些摄像机，那是几十年的技术积累，为了某种特定的输入输出而优化完美的。我认为我们正处于需要创造一种全新 AI 摄像机的边缘。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: and when you do that you can generate infinite number of scenes you can generate like oh you're wearing a red sweater now make it blue and not just in that scene but in like a whole 2hour film so there's all kinds of ways that we're starting to see these prototypes that we're working on too internally where this is this is here like it's coming

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 当你做到这一点时，你可以生成无限数量的场景。你可以生成比如“噢，你穿着红毛衣，现在把它变蓝”，而且不仅是在那个场景里，而是在整部 2 小时的电影里都变过来。所以我们开始看到各种各样的方法，包括我们内部正在开发的那些原型，这已经近在咫尺了，它即将来临。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um we're kind of entire I think things that used to either be too expensive or too Timely or it required a certain skill level um we kind of talk internally on the team about how do you kind of lower the bar and raise the ceiling and what we think about that when we're building products is how do you make something more accessible or how do you make like the pros take it and just blow you know the quality out of the water and making incredible stuff um so that's what we're seeing with video it's kind of right at that point where both are happening

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我觉得那些曾经要么太贵、要么太耗时、要么需要特定技能水平的事情——我们在团队内部经常讨论如何“降低门槛并抬高天花板”（lower the bar and raise the ceiling）。我们在构建产品时的思考是：如何让某样东西更易于上手（accessible）？或者如何让专业人士使用它时，能够做出质量惊人、不可思议的东西？这就是我们在视频领域看到的现状，这两者正处于同时发生的节点上。

[原文] [Host]: there was an interesting tweet from or post from Paul Graham recently on this idea I think of based on this pace of progress he's like you sort sort of want to be building things that kind of don't quite work yes and are way too expensive yes right because they're going to work yeah and their cost is going to come way down y right and so I would imagine that has applicability for you guys too particularly in video

[译文] [Host]: 最近保罗·格雷厄姆（Paul Graham）有一条有趣的推文或文章谈到了这个想法。基于这种进步速度，他的意思是，你应该去构建那些“目前还不太管用”且“极其昂贵”的东西。对吧？因为它们终将会变得管用，而且成本会大幅下降。我想这对你们也适用，特别是在视频领域。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: that's exactly how we do it yeah I mean right now I don't know off the top of my head but each video 8sec clip generated is obscenely expensive but we're basically building for a world where this is going to be like you're going to generate five at a time not even think about it one of the actual principles I've kind of learned just over the last few years working all this AI stuff is make sure your product is aligned to the models getting smarter cheaper faster and if your core product value prop can benefit from those Tailwinds you're in a good spot if any of those are not right question Your Existence like that would be my uh my summary takeway on that

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我们完全就是这么做的。虽然我现在手头没有确切数据，但目前生成的每一个 8 秒视频片段都极其昂贵（obscenely expensive）。但我们基本上是在为一个未来的世界构建产品，在那个世界里，你可以一次生成五个视频而完全不需要考虑成本。过去几年我在做这些 AI 项目时学到的一个原则是：确保你的产品与模型变得“更聪明、更便宜、更快”的趋势保持一致。如果你的核心产品价值主张能从这些顺风（Tailwinds）中获益，那你就处于有利位置。如果其中任何一点不成立，你就得质疑你的存在价值了。这就是我的总结性心得。

[原文] [Host]: how far do you think we are from having uh economics of video generation that are you know right side up where where you know it costs less to to generate the thing than the economic value of of generating it

[译文] [Host]: 你认为我们要多久才能让视频生成的经济账（economics）算得过来？也就是生成的成本低于生成它所带来的经济价值？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: yeah oh wow this is tough this is a prediction you're never really sure about I don't know but I would say one thing we're seeing just as we're modeling out a lot of costs because we're starting to put vo into some of our own tools that are coming out is we're probably going to need Innovation on the business model side in addition to just the product and the application layer

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 哇，这很难回答，这种预测你永远没法确定。但我可以说的是，随着我们开始将 Veo 整合到我们即将推出的一些工具中并进行成本建模时，我们看到的一件事是：除了产品和应用层之外，我们可能还需要商业模式方面的创新。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: and what I mean by that is you could our first thought was oh let's just make a subscription and then just charge per usage on top that might be a way to to do it another way to do it is when you talk to some of these creatives whether they're in Hollywood um or even these AI filmmakers that are popping up they're kind of like okay I want this output and I'm willing to pay this much and it's kind of a pay per output kind of which you've seen in other cases AI companies are starting to do some of this too but for sort of film and video that's it's a little bit how you'd think of doing a project if you were a producer but now you're kind of imagining it like the individual cre creative level which is kind of interesting so that's more like almost like an auction type model potentially so I think there's a lot to explore

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我的意思是，我们最初的想法是“噢，我们就做一个订阅制，然后在上面按使用量收费”，这可能是一种方法。另一种方法是，当你和一些创意人员交谈时——无论是在好莱坞，还是那些新涌现的 AI 电影制作人——他们的态度是“好吧，我想要这个产出，我愿意为此支付这么多钱”。这更像是一种按产出付费（pay per output）的模式。你在其他案例中也看到 AI 公司开始尝试这个，但在影视领域，这有点像制片人做项目时的思维方式，只是现在你把它想象成个体创作者的层级，这很有趣。所以这可能更像是一种拍卖式模型（auction type model）。我认为这方面有很多值得探索的地方。

[原文] [Host]: what do you think the future of video consumption looks like for us as consumers like am I still looking at Hollywood style feature films that are created by Hollywood Studios just done a lot more coste efficiently am I looking at a piece of content that's dynamically generated to what you know about me and it's only for me to watch am I like what what what do you think the future of is as

[译文] [Host]: 你认为作为消费者，视频消费的未来会是什么样？我是依然在看好莱坞制片厂制作的、只是成本效率更高的好莱坞大片？还是我在看一段根据你对我的了解而动态生成（dynamically generated）、只供我一人观看的内容？你认为未来会是怎样的？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: so this is one of those that could go in spider in many different ways I would say I'd say some of the things we're excited about and what we see so I think the future of entertainment is way more steerable so right now you think about you sit on your couch like this and you maybe scroll through something or whatever you cast it on you bring it up on the TV so it's going to be way more steerable where you can kind of interject if you want and maybe take it certain ways we think that's one area

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 这个问题可能会向很多不同的方向发散（spider）。我会说我们感到兴奋并看到的一些趋势是：我认为未来的娱乐将变得更加可操控（steerable）。现在你坐在沙发上，可能就是刷刷手机，或者把内容投屏到电视上。未来它将变得更加可操控，如果你愿意，你可以介入（interject），也许将剧情引向特定的方向。我们认为这是一个领域。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: we think another is personalization like you said if you think today about YouTube Tik Tok any of these algorithms that can kind of figure out this is what you're interested in imagine that I think way more extreme uh that could be kind of fine-tuned to sort of what you want to share with the model

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我们认为另一个领域是个性化（personalization），就像你说的。如果你想想今天的 YouTube 或 TikTok，这些算法能大致推断出你感兴趣的内容。想象一下那种极致的个性化，它可以根据你愿意与模型分享的信息进行微调。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um I think the other bit is a lot of this I think is going to be generated on the fly so another theory we have is that just like there was a rise of kind of a Creator class couple whatever 10 15 years ago that powered YouTube and the rest there's going to be a shift or maybe it's a different set of people that we think of as like curators where you curate stuff and you work with the model to maybe create things and I think another loop in that is how you can remix all this

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我认为另一部分是，很多内容将是实时生成（generated on the fly）的。所以我们还有一个理论：就像 10 到 15 年前“创作者阶层”（Creator class）的崛起推动了 YouTube 等平台一样，未来将出现一种转变，或者说是一群不同的人，我们称之为“策展人”（curators）。你会策展内容，并与模型合作来创造东西。我认为其中的另一个闭环是你如何重组（remix）所有这些内容。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: and so that's another big part of what we see in the future of entertainment is that there'll be like oh I kind of like that but they'll make it more like this and if you think you know at some level the cost the time the skills required of this is literally maybe just like tapping a button or just describing it and you get kind of different versions that's kind of where we see some of this going

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 这也是我们在未来娱乐中看到的另一个重要部分：你会说“噢，我有点喜欢那个，但能不能把它变得更像这样？”如果你考虑到所需的成本、时间和技能水平实际上可能只是点击一个按钮或简单描述一下，你就能得到不同的版本。这大概就是我们要看到的趋势。

章节 5：2025年预测——代码生成的爆发与 AI 的“手电筒应用”时代

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，Josh 分享了 Google Labs 预测未来的独特方法——“未来胶囊”思想实验，并据此列出了 82 个预测。他特别强调 2025 年将是编程（Coding）发生巨大飞跃的一年，透露目前 Google 内部已有 25% 的代码由 AI 编写。他通过自己与儿子用 AI 快速开发“家务追踪 App”的经历，展示了“一次性软件”（disposable software）的潜力。而在谈及“被高估”的领域时，Josh 直言当前的“聊天机器人界面”和生硬的 AI 植入有些过度。他用 iPhone App Store 早期的“手电筒应用”和“放屁应用”做类比，指出我们目前正处于这一阶段，而真正改变行业的“Uber”和“Airbnb”级应用将在未来几年出现。

[原文] [Host]: you mentioned at the top of the episode that you try to do some top down thinking of you know what are the most interesting pools for us to be building in yeah what are your predictions on the most interesting pools to be building in for 2025 like where are you hiring um talents like where you where you sniffing around where are you co-creating with the the Deep Mind folks

[译文] [Host]: 你在节目开头提到过，你们会尝试进行一些自上而下的思考，去判断哪些是最值得我们去建设的有趣领域。那么你对 2025 年最值得建设的领域有什么预测？比如你们在哪里招聘人才？在哪里嗅探机会？在哪里与 DeepMind 的同事们进行共创？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: yeah yeah there's a lot happening with agents there's a lot happening with video some of the things we've talked about with computer use but I think about those ponds a little bit different I think about them we have this doc called Labs is a collection of Futures and it's 82 predictions about the future um which is always dangerous to make one prediction about the future let alone 82

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 是的，代理（agents）领域正在发生很多事情，视频领域也一样，还有我们谈到的一些关于计算机操作的内容。但我对这些“池塘”的思考方式略有不同。我们有一份文档叫做“Labs 是未来的集合”（Labs is a collection of Futures），里面包含了关于未来的 82 个预测。要知道，对未来做一个预测就已经很危险了，更别说 82 个了。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: but the thought experiment on the team where we got to this was imagine you're in a room like this the ceiling just opens up and this little capsule comes down we all jump in it and it slings us into the future it's 2028 you can get out you get five minutes look around write down everything and you're brought back to the present and then write what you saw and that's what this dock is is so what's the future of knowledge look like what's the future even though prompts are oldfashioned that's a pretty good prompt that you gave to the team tell you right now

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 但我们团队得出这些预测的思想实验是这样的：想象你就在这样的一个房间里，天花板突然打开，一个小胶囊降下来，我们都跳进去，它把我们弹射到未来。那是 2028 年，你可以走出来，你有五分钟时间四处看看，记下所有东西，然后被带回现在，写下你所看到的。这就是这份文档的内容。比如知识的未来是什么样的？尽管“提示词”已经过时了，但这（思想实验）本身确实是你给团队的一个相当不错的提示词，我得说。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: yeah yeah so that's you know we think about we think about it at that level at kind of a high level so say something like what's the future of knowledge going to look like we think it's going to be one piece of that prediction one of the 82 is that it's infinitely remixable and anything that comes in can be transformed and become anything on the way out if you believe that then you take certain bets and you build products kind of with that future in mind so that might be one of them

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 是的，所以这就是我们在那个层面、某种高层面上思考的问题。比如“知识的未来会是什么样？”我们认为这 82 个预测中的一个是：它将是无限可重组的（infinitely remixable），任何输入的东西都可以被转化，并变成任何输出的东西。如果你相信这一点，你就会下某些注，并带着这种对未来的预期去构建产品。所以这可能是其中之一。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: but I think like going back to maybe some of the ones that a lot of people might be listening or building I do think we're kind of at the moment for video we're at the moment for very interesting agent stuff with the thinking and reasoning models and I think there's also maybe something kind of under the radar right now a little bit still think coding has major leaps we're going to see this year um and so those would be some of the ones that are top of mind for us

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 但回到许多听众可能正在关注或构建的领域，我确实认为我们正处于视频的关键时刻，正处于具有思考和推理模型的代理（agent）这类非常有趣事物的关键时刻。而且我认为还有一个可能目前有点被低估（under the radar）的领域，我仍然认为编程（coding）在今年将会出现巨大的飞跃。这些就是我们最关注的几个领域。

[原文] [Host]: are you guys doing work on coding out of labs too

[译文] [Host]: 你们 Labs 也在做编程方面的工作吗？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: yeah we are we are so right now at Google 25% of all the codes written by AI yeah I saw that Jeff te yeah that's right that's right and that's up a lot in the sense of just how fast the progress is

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 是的，我们在做，确实在做。目前在 Google，25% 的代码是由 AI 编写的。是的，我看到 Jeff Dean 提到了这一点。没错，这是真的。而且从进步速度来看，这个比例上升得非常快。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um this is an area that that I think there's kind of two approaches you could think about like how again think of lower the bar raise the ceiling right how do you make coding available for people who could never write code before massive opportunity you know like I've been coding my whole life I mean some of that well it's kind of interesting is some of the most interesting stuff happening here I don't know if any of you have played with like repits agent stuff really interesting right

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 嗯，在这个领域，我认为你可以考虑两种方法。再次回到“降低门槛，抬高天花板”的思路，对吧？你如何让以前从未写过代码的人能够编程？这是一个巨大的机会。你知道，我写了一辈子代码。有些非常有趣的事情正在发生，我不知道你们有没有玩过像 Replit 的 Agent 之类的东西，真的很有趣，对吧？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: couple of weekends ago I'm with my fourth grade son we are struggling right now in our household to implement chores we created a chore tracking app 28 minutes 45 cents done we're daily active users and so it's a way to kind of get into software and a world of kind of software abundance that's really interesting um so we've got some stuff in that area

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 几个周末前，我和我上四年级的儿子在一起。我们家最近在执行家务分配方面遇到点困难。于是我们做了一个家务追踪 App。28 分钟，花了 45 美分，搞定。我们现在是这个 App 的日活跃用户。这是一种进入软件领域的方式，一个软件极度丰富（software abundance）的世界，这真的很有趣。所以我们在那个领域也有一些项目。

[原文] [Host]: what do you think is overhyped in AI right now

[译文] [Host]: 你认为目前 AI 领域有什么是被过度炒作（overhyped）的？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: oh that's an interesting question I wish we move beyond the chatbot interface a bit like that's one area that feels like we're kind of reusing that in a lot of places Google included um I'm also not sure there's still a lot I think of like people jamming AI into stuff like AI itself is a bit overhyped I wish we were a little more precise about how disruptive or like where to apply it and so I think again we're trying to think a lot about like workflows not just taking existing product in bolt on AI

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 噢，这是个有趣的问题。我希望我们能稍微超越聊天机器人界面（chatbot interface）这一形式。感觉这是我们在很多地方——包括 Google——都在重复使用的东西。另外我不确定……我还觉得很多人在生硬地把 AI 塞进各种东西里。这就像“AI”这个概念本身有点被过度炒作了。我希望我们在谈论它的颠覆性或应用场景时能更精准一点。所以我认为，我们再次尝试更多地思考工作流（workflows），而不仅仅是拿一个现有的产品，然后硬把 AI 像螺丝一样拧上去（bolt on AI）。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um so I think that's maybe a little there's a a race like you're seeing the first generation of AI put it in and it reminds me a lot actually when I first started at Google it was like right as the iPhone moment was kind of Just Happening and taking taking hold you when Steve walked on stage in 2007 said this is the iPhone if you look at the App Store three years later which is roughly where we are in this AI Revolution the App Store in 2009 is I went back and checked websites that have been shrunken down to fit on your phone flashlight apps and fart apps these were like the highest top downloaded things that were happening

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 嗯，所以我认为这可能有点像一场竞赛，你看到第一代 AI 被植入各种产品中。这实际上让我想起了我刚加入 Google 时，正值 iPhone 时刻刚刚发生并开始站稳脚跟。当 2007 年史蒂夫（乔布斯）走上舞台说“这就是 iPhone”。如果你看看三年后的 App Store——大概就是我们在这次 AI 革命中所处的阶段——2009 年的 App Store 是什么样的？我回去查了一下：那是被缩小以适应手机屏幕的网站、手电筒应用（flashlight apps）和放屁应用（fart apps）。这些是当时下载量最高的东西。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: so I think we're kind of in this stage where the real stuff is going to start to come out kind of this year next year the next year that's when you start to see the Ubers the airbnbs the instacart the things that really change kind of how you do stuff and so that's that's kind of my thought on it

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 所以我认为我们正处于这个阶段，而真正的（好）东西将从今年、明年、后年开始涌现。那时候你才会开始看到 Uber、Airbnb、Instacart 这些真正改变你做事方式的东西出现。这就是我的看法。

章节 6：被低估的未来——代码自愈、无限上下文与构建者的良知

📝 本节摘要：

在访谈的最后部分，Josh 指出了 AI 领域几个被严重“低估”的趋势：具备自我修复（Self-healing）能力的编程模型、长上下文（Long Context）带来的战略杠杆，以及在“AI 垃圾内容”（AI slop）泛滥时，“好品味”（Taste）与“真实性”（Veracity）的价值回归。对话中产生了一个精彩的比喻，将“无限上下文”类比为夫妻间只需一个眼神就能心领神会的默契。在快速问答环节，Josh 推荐了《乐高故事》作为创业必读，并对此刻的构建者提出了终极建议：在这扇通往无数“相邻可能”（Adjacent Possibles）的大门前，请选择放大人类创造力，而非单纯地取代人类。

[原文] [Host]: all right then Sonia ask you the overhype question I'll ask you the uh under the radar underhyped question what some areas that deserve more attention within AI

[译文] [Host]: 好吧，既然 Sonia 问了你关于过度炒作的问题，那我就来问那个“雷达之下”、被低估（underhyped）的问题。在 AI 领域，有哪些方面值得更多的关注？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: we talked about coding a little bit maybe just one other thought on that is I think if you can get code models uh that can kind of write code and self-correct and self-heal and migrate and do all this stuff it just makes you think the pace is fast now that totally changes the curve so I think that's a huge I still think it's underhyped like it's hyped a lot by the way um but I think as hyped as it is it could be hyped more that's one

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我们之前稍微聊了一下编程，关于这个我只有一个补充想法：我认为如果你能拥有那种可以编写代码，并且能够自我纠正（self-correct）、自我修复（self-heal）、迁移和处理所有这些事情的代码模型，如果你觉得现在的速度很快，那这个东西将彻底改变增长曲线。所以我认为这是一个巨大的机会。我仍然认为它被低估了——顺便说一句，它已经被炒作得很厉害了——但我认为即便如此，它值得被炒作得更厉害。这是其一。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um I don't think we fully internalized the notion of like what does long context or like infinite context mean it gets to some of your personalization questions potentially but it also gets to some of the stuff we were talking about around how can you make things like a mariner literally just keep going like um and so uh that whole notion of long context I mean you'll you see a lot from Google but we're investing a lot in that because we think that's a strategic lever um that's important uh especially as you get more agentic chain together kind of workflows

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 其次，我不认为我们已经完全内化了“长上下文”（long context）或“无限上下文”（infinite context）意味着什么。它可能涉及到你提到的一些个性化问题，但也涉及到我们讨论过的如何让像 Mariner 这样的东西真正持续运行下去。所以关于长上下文的整个概念——你会看到 Google 在这方面有很多动作，我们正投入大量资源，因为我们认为这是一个重要的战略杠杆（strategic lever），特别是当你拥有更多这种代理式（agentic）、链接在一起的工作流时。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: um maybe another one I think there's there's not enough talk about taste and like I think if you believe the value is going to be in the application layer if you believe there's going to be some percentage of AI slop if you can just see a few of these Trends and I think there's going to be a value in Good Taste and good design and it doesn't mean it has to be human created necessarily although I think there's going to be high value on that too as like human crafted content becomes more Artisan um but I think that's another one

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 也许还有一点，我认为关于“品味”（Taste）的讨论还不够。如果你相信价值将存在于应用层，如果你相信会有一定比例的“AI 垃圾内容”（AI slop）出现——如果你能看到这些趋势，我认为好的品味和好的设计将具有价值。这不一定意味着必须是人类创造的，尽管我认为随着人类精心制作的内容变得更具工匠精神（Artisan），其价值也会很高。但这确实是另一点。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: I would say I think maybe related to that it's like veracity and Truth um and sort of what is real like these are things that I think are going to become way more important than they already are today

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我想说可能与此相关的还有“真实性”（veracity）和“真相”（Truth），以及什么才是真实的。我认为这些东西将变得比今天重要得多。

[原文] [Host]: I think the context Point within there I like really firmly agree with on like what can happen with you um your infinite context point because if you think about the relationship in your life where you have like the most context shared context it's probably with your spouse right and if you think about that what ends up happening is you can communicate with your spouse literally with just like like the flick of an eye right and all of a sudden they know exactly what you mean they know it's time to leave the party whatever it might be

[译文] [Host]: 我非常坚定地同意你关于上下文的观点，关于你的“无限上下文”能带来什么。因为如果你想想你生活中拥有最多“共享上下文”（shared context）的关系，那大概就是你的配偶，对吧？如果你仔细想想，结果就是你跟配偶交流时，真的只需要比如一个眼神的闪动，对吧？突然间他们就完全明白你的意思了，他们知道该离开派对如了，不管是什么情况。

[原文] [Host]: that's right right and you think about that's the aspiration for what can happen with infinite shared context we know that's the ceiling exactly right and so you think about you're like think about how far away that is from now where you're like typing things in about what it is in your point of like well hold on there's all these different ways you can communicate it and can get to know you better if it has memory and so I I think there's so much gold in there of it just being able to keep going right but giving it the right context and whatever it needs

[译文] [Host]: 没错。你想想，这就是无限共享上下文所能达到的愿景，我们知道那就是天花板。没错。所以你想想，这离我们现在还有多远？现在你还在通过打字输入来表达是什么。这回到了你的观点：等等，其实有各种不同的沟通方式，如果它有记忆，它就能更好地了解你。所以我认为那里有巨大的价值（gold），只要给它正确的上下文和它所需要的一切，它就能持续运行下去。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: you think of any company that you all back or even Google like what's one of the most painful things is when a long-term employee leaves CU all that context walks out the door so I think it's exactly right whether it's a personal relationship or a work relationship

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 你想想你们投资的任何公司，甚至 Google，最痛苦的事情之一是什么？就是当一名长期员工离职时，所有的那些上下文都随之走出了大门。所以我认为无论是私人关系还是工作关系，这个比喻都完全正确。

[原文] [Host]: yeah okay we're going to wrap with a a rapid fire round you ready yeah sounds good okay favorite new AI app

[译文] [Host]: 好的，我们将以一个快速问答环节（rapid fire round）来结束。准备好了吗？是的，听起来不错。好的，最喜欢的新 AI 应用是？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: I mentioned it earlier I'm having a lot of fun with repet love it the new agent thing and on the phone I think they're doing some really interesting stuff there you know one of our partners Andrew Reed is known for slinging like creating these amazing memes and sending around it's now so easy to create an app he just creates these all the time and sends them to me um they're they're really good yeah we have this concept of like disposable software you you use it once and you kind of throw it out after you're done with it so yeah

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我之前提到了，我在玩 Replit，玩得很开心。我喜欢那个新的 Agent 功能，还有手机端，我觉得他们正在做一些非常有趣的事情。你知道我们的合作伙伴 Andrew Reed 以制作并发送那些惊人的 Meme 图而闻名，现在创建一个 App 变得如此容易，他整天都在做这些 App 然后发给我。它们真的很好。是的，我们有一个概念叫“一次性软件”（disposable software），你用一次，用完就扔掉。

[原文] [Host]: okay what application or application categor do you think is going to really break out this year

[译文] [Host]: 好的，你认为今年哪个应用或应用类别会真正爆发（break out）？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: video

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 视频。

[原文] [Host]: okay uh recommended piece of content or reading for for AI people

[译文] [Host]: 好的，给 AI 从业者推荐的一条内容或读物？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: oo that's an interesting one um you know this one's not a traditional AI pick because I think probably a lot of the listeners here I was going to say over the break I I read a lot and one of the books I picked up was actually it's the Lego story and it's the history of Lego and it's on its third generation of family ownership um I'd recommend that one it's a really interesting uh yeah here's why though there's a pivotal moment in the company's history where they had 260 products and maybe for a lot of Founders that are listening you can imagine your company could go in like all these different ways you're trying to figure it out and the grandfather the CEO at the time basically identified like the little building blocks this is it and he bet the company on it and he bought these incredibly expensive machines and so I think it's like an incred I like to read biographies a lot and this was one that really stood out

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 噢，这很有趣。你知道这不是一个传统的 AI 推荐，因为我想这里的很多听众……我想说在休息期间我读了很多书，我拿起的一本书实际上是《乐高故事》（The Lego Story），那是乐高的历史，现在是家族第三代掌舵。我推荐这一本，它非常有趣。原因是：在公司历史上有一个关键时刻，当时他们有 260 种产品。也许对于很多正在收听的创始人来说，你可以想象你的公司可能会走向所有这些不同的方向，你正试图理清头绪。而当时作为 CEO 的祖父基本上认定了那些小积木块——就是它了。他把整个公司都押注在上面，买了那些极其昂贵的机器。所以我认为这非常不可思议。我很喜欢读传记，这是一本真正脱颖而出的书。

[原文] [Host]: request for startup okay uh pre-training hitting a wall agree or disagree

[译文] [Host]: 给创业公司的需求（Request for startup）。好的，预训练（pre-training）遇到瓶颈（撞墙）了，同意还是不同意？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: o maybe lean agree I think there's still stuff to squeeze out there but I think a lot of the the focus has shifted

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 噢，也许倾向于同意（lean agree）。我认为那里还有东西可以榨取，但我认为很多焦点已经转移了。

[原文] [Host]: yeah Nvidia long or short

[译文] [Host]: 做多还是做空英伟达（Nvidia）？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: I don't give stock advice Index Fund would

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我不提供股票建议，指数基金吧。

[原文] [Host]: do you ever uh sit with Demis and be like look as someone between us we won a Nobel Prize do you ever start with that you know because you know that feels like something that's true you know between the two of you there's one Nobel Prize it's all one directional it's Den John jumper those are the people that won the Nobel Prize not Josh Woodward

[译文] [Host]: 你有没有曾经跟 Demis（DeepMind CEO）坐在一起，然后说：“看，咱们俩加起来，我们赢得了一个诺贝尔奖”？你有没有这样开场过？因为你知道这感觉像是真的，你们两个人之间确实有一个诺贝尔奖。（注：此处是主持人开玩笑，暗示诺奖全是 Demis 的功劳）

[Josh Woodward]: 那全是单向的（one directional）。是 Demis 和 John Jumper 那些人赢得了诺贝尔奖，不是 Josh Woodward。

[原文] [Host]: yeah uh okay any other contrarian takes an AI any other contrarian takes

[译文] [Host]: 好的，关于 AI 还有什么其他的逆向观点（contrarian takes）吗？

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: I guess maybe I'll leave it with this I think we are kind of one thing is like what a time to be alive and building because I feel like there's this window where there's like so many adjacent possibles opening up I think the second would just be like I'd encourage people listening to like really think about of course there's the models and who's winning and the back and forth but like what are the values You're Building into your company cuz I think this is one of those moments where there's going to be like tools created that shape like follow on Generations

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我想我也许就用这个来结束吧。一方面，我认为这真是一个“活着并进行构建的绝佳时刻”（what a time to be alive and building），因为我感觉这是一个有着无数“相邻可能”（adjacent possibles）正在开启的窗口期。第二点，我会鼓励听众真正去思考：当然大家都在关注模型，关注谁输谁赢以及你来我往，但你要思考你正在为你的公司注入什么样的价值观？因为我认为这是一个将创造出塑造后代人的工具的时刻。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: I think it's really important people think about that and like are you trying to replace and eliminate people or are you trying to amplify human creativity I mean there's like one that's like you know going immediately comes to mind when I'm thinking a video for example I'm on the side of wanting to amplify human creativity but I think there's like there are these moments that happen in our Valley here where like things change and they change often for generations and they can change for good or bad and so I would just encourage people that are in spots where you're building and you have this incredible technology that's only getting smarter and faster and cheaper to put it to good use and think about the consequences Downstream

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 我认为人们思考这一点非常重要：你是试图取代和淘汰人类，还是试图放大人类的创造力？ 比如当我想到视频时，我立刻就会想到这一点，我是站在想要放大人类创造力这一边的。但我认为在我们这个硅谷（Valley），有些时刻会让事情发生改变，而且往往会改变好几代人，这种改变可以是好的，也可以是坏的。所以我只想鼓励那些身处构建之位、拥有这些只会变得更聪明、更快、更便宜的不可思议的技术的人们，把它们用在好的地方，并思考下游的后果。

[原文] [Host]: thank you so much Josh for joining us we love this conversation

[译文] [Host]: 非常感谢 Josh 加入我们，我们非常喜欢这次谈话。

基于访谈原文的完整性梳理，整个访谈的正文内容在“第六章”已基本结束。

不过，在整理原文 Sources 至 时，有一段发生在“书籍推荐”与“快速问答”之间的有趣对话，涉及主持人与 Josh 关于“理想 AI 阅读应用”的脑洞讨论。为了保证文档的绝对完整，我将其作为“Bonus 章节”单独整理如下。

至此，该访谈的所有核心内容、细节对话及结语均已整理完毕。

以下是延伸话题

章节 7：[Bonus] 脑洞时刻——未来的“AI 阅读伴侣”

📝 本节摘要：

这是一个在“书籍推荐”环节后被延伸出的精彩插曲。主持人盛赞 Josh 的阅读品味，并借机提出了自己的“愿望清单”应用：一款能整合所有阅读记忆、从“记忆深渊”中捞起碎片化灵感的 AI 阅读助手。Josh 对此表示强烈共鸣，并补充了他眼中的基础痛点——纸质书、电子书和有声书目前仍是割裂的，理想的未来应当是这三种媒介的“无缝交织”，让知识获取不再受场景限制。

[原文] [Host]: Josh has an Inc incredible taste in books and he has this wonderful reading list that he's been kind enough to share with me oh no way that's really wonderfully curated it has this very good formatting as to when it's something you really got to read versus not and so uh you should to all the listeners you should take Josh's suggestions seriously

[译文] [Host]: Josh 在书籍方面有着难以置信的好品味，他有一份非常棒的阅读书单，而且很慷慨地分享给了我。噢，没得说，那真的是精心策划的，格式非常棒，标注了哪些是你真正必须读的，哪些不是。所以，对于所有的听众来说，你们应该认真对待 Josh 的建议。

[原文] [Host]: I actually really want a great AI reading app that's like my wish list app what would in part because I have terrible memory but out of out of everything I've ever read or listen to which I think is a different set of things than all the books on the planet like there's all these things that are kind of on the tip of my tongue and ideas that connect but you know they're all kind of in an abyss and they're all pretty inaccessible to me

[译文] [Host]: 我实际上真的非常想要一款很棒的 AI 阅读应用，那是我“愿望清单”上的应用。部分原因是因为我的记性太差了。但在我读过或听过的所有东西里——我认为这与这世上所有的书是不同的集合——总有一些东西就在嘴边（on the tip of my tongue），或者有一些相互关联的想法，但你知道，它们都像掉进了深渊（abyss）一样，我很难再接触到它们。

[原文] [Host]: and and so something that surfaces some of those thoughts and ideas that I've had things that I've read you know that next layer of thought I have from reflecting on two different things that I've read and the connections probably across them

[译文] [Host]: 所以（我想要）某种能让那些我曾经有过的想法和念头浮出水面的东西，那些我读过的东西。你知道，就是那种我通过反思两件读过的不同事物而产生的更深一层的思考，以及它们之间可能存在的联系。

[原文] [Josh Woodward]: yeah it's a good idea I think even within that like just the hard copy version the Kindle version and the audiobook version being like you know seamlessly intertwined like you just the most basic level you know so that you can continuously pay attention to something that you like and then we can get to the version that you said

[译文] [Josh Woodward]: 是的，这是个好主意。我认为即便在那个范畴内，比如仅仅是让纸质版、Kindle 版和有声书版能够——你知道——无缝交织（seamlessly intertwined）在一起。就像仅仅在最基础的层面上，让你能持续关注你喜欢的东西，然后我们可以再实现你所说的那个版本。

【文档整理结束说明】

至此，关于 Josh Woodward (Google Labs) 的访谈内容已全部整理为双语精读文档。

文档结构回顾：

希望这份结构化文档能辅助您深入理解本次访谈的核心洞见。