章节 1：AI 的指数级进化与代码革命

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，Dario Amodei 反驳了“通用人工智能（AGI）”这一单一拐点的概念，主张 AI 的发展是一个类似“摩尔定律”的平滑指数级过程，智能水平每 4-12 个月翻一番。他以编程为例，指出 AI 已能接管大部分初级甚至高级软件工程师的任务，并预言这种指数级增长将在未来 1-2 年内迎来“急剧上升”的时刻，彻底超越人类认知。

[原文] [Host]: Can we start with the kind of rough status of how the industry is going? You and your rivals, how close are we now to artificial general intelligence? Set the stage for us first and then we can talk about the morality of it all.

[译文] [主持人]: 我们能先大致了解一下行业的现状吗？你和你的竞争对手们，我们现在距离“通用人工智能（AGI）”还有多远？先为我们设定一下背景，然后我们可以再谈论这一切背后的道德问题。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Yeah. Yeah. Thanks for. Thanks for having me. I mean, you know, I've never liked the artificial general intelligence or superintelligence. Not because I don't think is very powerful. Right. I'm not I'm not a skeptic. I'm actually extreme in terms of my views of how powerful the technology is going to be.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 好的，好的。谢谢。谢谢邀请我。我是说，你知道，我从来不喜欢“通用人工智能（AGI）”或“超级智能（Superintelligence）”这种说法。并不是因为我不认为它很强大。对。我不是怀疑论者。实际上，对于这项技术将变得多么强大，我的观点是极端的。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: But it's the wrong model for thinking about it, that there will be some one point where we build something completely different. What we see here, actually, what we've seen for the last ten years, maybe even 15, and you know, me and therapist co-founders were among the first to document it is this very smooth, exponential, exponential process.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 但这是一种错误的思考模型，即认为会在某个单一时间点，我们要么构建出某种完全不同的东西。实际上我们在这里看到的，以及过去十年甚至十五年所看到的——你知道，我和 Anthropic（原文误听为 therapist）的联合创始人们是最早记录这一现象的人之一——是一个非常平滑的、指数级的、指数级的过程。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Just like in the nineties, you saw Moore's Law that, you know, the the amount of computing power would double every 12 months or every 18 months. We have a moore's Law like law, except it's for intelligence itself, for for the cognitive ability of the model across many tasks.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 就像在九十年代，你看到了摩尔定律（Moore's Law），即计算能力每 12 个月或 18 个月翻一番。我们也有一个类似摩尔定律的定律，只不过它是针对智能本身的，针对模型在许多任务中的认知能力（cognitive ability）。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And so what we are seeing is that that cognitive ability is, you know, depending on how you measure it, doubling every, you know, four to 4 to 12 months. And so, you know, we're just climbing the ladder of cognitive ability.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以我们看到的是，这种认知能力——取决于你怎么衡量——每 4 到 12 个月就会翻一番。因此，你知道，我们正沿着认知能力的阶梯向上攀登。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And where we are now is, you know, to take coding as one example that's been exploding really fast over the last year or two. I have engineers. In fact, the team that leads one of our lead products called Code, which is the way you use our models for for coding. He says he hasn't written any code in the last two months. He's it's all caught he's he's edited it he's looked at it but it's all been written by Claude.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我们现在的处境，拿编程（coding）作为一个例子，它在过去一两年里发展得非常快。我有工程师——事实上，领导我们要产品之一“Code”（指代编程相关产品）的团队负责人，也就是你们使用我们模型进行编程的方式——他说他在过去两个月里没有写过任何代码。全是 Claude 写的，他只是编辑了它，检查了它，但全都是由 Claude 编写的。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Indeed. We recently released this thing called Coachwork, which was bringing code code to, you know, non-coding tasks. It really seems to have taken off. We wrote it in like a week and a half, almost entirely with code code.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 确实。我们最近发布了一个叫 Coachwork（注：可能是指 Artifacts 或类似工具的内部代号或误听）的东西，它将代码带入了非编程任务中。它似乎真的腾飞了。我们大概花了一周半的时间编写它，几乎完全是用代码工具（code code）完成的。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: So I think we're entering the world where, you know, the junior level software engineers, maybe many of the tasks of the more senior level software engineers are starting to be done, you know, most of the way by buying AI systems now that's going to go further can be more end to end the project to me more.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以我认为我们正在进入这样一个世界，初级软件工程师的工作，也许还有更高级软件工程师的许多任务，正开始大部分由购买的 AI 系统来完成。这将进一步发展，对我来说，它将能够更端到端（end to end）地完成项目。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: But I think we're going to be surprised at how the exponential turns upward. Right? The whole the whole thing about exponentials is, you know, it looks like it's going very, very slowly. It speeds up a little bit and then it just zooms past you.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 但我认为我们会对这种指数级增长如何“向上转折”感到惊讶。对吧？关于指数级增长（exponentials）的全部要点在于，它看起来进展得非常非常慢。它稍微加速一点，然后突然就从你身边呼啸而过（zooms past you）。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And I think we're I think we're on the precipice. I think we're a year or two away from it, really zooming past us. So it's very like going bankrupt.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我认为我们正处于悬崖边缘（precipice）。我认为我们距离它真正从我们身边呼啸而过只有一两年的时间。这非常像破产的过程（注：引用海明威名言“Gradually, then suddenly”）。

章节 2：市场格局：企业级战略与消费者导向的博弈

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，Dario Amodei 拒绝将 AI 竞争简单视为线性的排名赛跑。他指出竞争对手（如 OpenAI 和 Google）正转向以消费者为中心的方向，优化模型的互动性与广告推荐能力。相比之下，Anthropic 专注于企业与开发者市场，旨在提升生产力。Amodei 认为企业本质上就是一种现存的“超级智能”，服务于企业能带来更稳定的商业模式，避免了消费者市场中为了追求用户参与度而产生“垃圾内容（slop）”和不良外部性的陷阱。

[原文] [Host]: But when when this happens in terms of the kind of running order does yourself, this Gemini, this open air, where do you put you all together at the moment roughly?

[译文] [主持人]: 但是当这一切发生时，就目前的排名顺序而言，你们自己、Gemini、OpenAI（原文误听为 open air），你觉得你们现在大概处于什么位置？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Yeah. I mean, you know, so I think I think as the field has developed, you know, I think it's no longer appropriate to think of it as like, you know, like a scalar, you know, like runners in a race who are at one position.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 是的。我的意思是，你知道，我认为随着领域的发展，再把它看作是一个标量（scalar），或者像赛跑中的选手处于某个单一位置，已经不再合适了。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: The players have gone in different directions. So some of the other players have gone into very consumer oriented direction. And that leads you to make your models, you know, super humanly engaging or super humanly good at recommending shopping or ads or various things like that.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 参与者们已经走向了不同的方向。其他一些参与者已经进入了非常以消费者为导向的方向。这会导致你把模型做得——你知道——在吸引人方面具有超人的能力，或者在推荐购物、广告或类似的事情上具有超人的能力。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Anthropic has focused, I think, first and foremost on enterprises, developers. And to the extent we do consumer, we're very focused on productivity and the kind of high value end of the of the consumer work.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我认为 Anthropic 首要关注的是企业和开发者。而在我们涉足消费者领域的范围内，我们要非常专注于生产力以及消费者工作中高价值的那一端。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And so that that gives very that gives very different incentives. Right? If you if you want to get things done.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 这带来了非常不同的激励机制。对吧？如果你是想把事情做成的话。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: You know, we talked about AGI in superintelligence before. One of the things I would say is that, you know, there are superintelligence is today and they're basically large corporations, right?

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 你知道，我们之前谈到了 AGI 和超级智能。我想说的一点是，你知道，今天其实已经存在超级智能了，它们基本上就是大公司，对吧？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: They're smarter than any human can be, you know, solving the problem of, you know, shipping, shipping commerce at the lowest possible cost or making solar panels the lowest possible cost or launching rockets at the lowest possible possible cost.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 它们比任何人类都要聪明，你知道，它们解决的问题包括以尽可能低的成本运输商品，或者以尽可能低的成本制造太阳能电池板，或者以尽可能低的成本发射火箭。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And so there's really high returns to intelligence in this area, which I think incentivizes us to to kind of to kind of build the right thing.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以在这个领域，智能的回报率非常高，我认为这激励我们去构建正确的东西。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: It's it's also, you know, I think it's I think it's a business that is more stable than consumer. We don't need you know, we don't need ads. We don't need, you know, large numbers of free users.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 而且，你知道，我认为这是一项比消费者业务更稳定的业务。我们不需要——你知道，我们不需要广告。我们不需要大量的免费用户。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: We can we can just very directly create value. Right? There aren't all these weird externalities of, like your prioritizing engagement. You're prioritizing these other things, you're generating all this slop. We just make stuff that that people can use.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我们可以非常直接地创造价值。对吧？这里没有那些奇怪的外部性（externalities），比如你优先考虑参与度（engagement）。你优先考虑其他东西，你就会生成所有这些垃圾内容（slop）。我们只制造人们真正能用的东西。

章节 3：地缘政治博弈：芯片禁令与国家安全

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，Dario Amodei 指出中国 AI 虽然在“刷榜”上表现出色，但在企业级实际应用中从未真正追上美国，主要受限于芯片禁令。他强烈反对向中国出口高算力芯片，将 AI 数据中心比作“数据中心里的天才国度”，认为其战略意义等同于核武器。他警告称，放松芯片管制无异于“向朝鲜出售核武器”，是极不明智的国家安全决策。

[原文] [Host]: Year ago here, you what? You said the Chinese were catching up a bit. Do you think now the Chinese have fallen behind?

[译文] [主持人]: 一年前在这里，你是怎么说的？你说中国正在赶上来一点。你认为现在中国已经落后了吗？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: You know, I think they never really caught up that much. So, you know, of course, there was this huge excitement around deep.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 你知道，我认为他们从来没有真正赶上那么多。当然，围绕“deep”（注：此处指 DeepSeek）曾有过巨大的兴奋。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Yeah, right. But, you know, the truth was a couple of things. One. You know, those models are very optimized for the benchmarks. It's actually very easy to optimize the model for a finite list of benchmarks.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 是的，没错。但是，你知道，事实包含几方面。第一。你知道，那些模型针对基准测试（benchmarks）进行了高度优化。实际上，针对有限的基准测试列表来优化模型是非常容易的。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: When we go out into the world, right, when we're when we're when we're, you know, competing against other companies for enterprise contracts, we see just honestly and candidly, we see Google and we see Openai.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 当我们走向世界，对吧，当我们——你知道——与其他公司竞争企业合同的时候，我们看到的是——诚实且坦率地说——我们看到的是 Google 和 OpenAI。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Every once in a while, we see a couple other U.S. players. I have almost never lost a deal, lost a contract to to a Chinese model.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 偶尔我们会看到几个其他的美国玩家。我几乎从未输掉过一笔交易，从未输给过中国模型一份合同。

[原文] [Host]: But now you have the Trump administration, and I think you've already protested about this, giving high speed chips and video chips to the Chinese.

[译文] [主持人]: 但现在有了特朗普政府，我想你已经对此表示过抗议了，即向中国提供高速芯片和视频芯片（注：指 Nvidia GPU）。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: That's right. That's right. The thing that is holding them back and they've said it themselves. The CEOs of these companies say it's the embargo on chips that's holding us back. They explicitly say this.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 没错。没错。阻碍他们发展的因素——而且他们自己也说过——这些公司的 CEO 们说，是芯片禁运阻碍了我们。他们明确地这么说了。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And now, indeed, you know, there are some policies and I hope they change their mind to, you know, to explicitly send not quite our latest generation of chips, although it was reported that even that was being considered.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 而现在，确实，你知道，有一些政策——我希望他们能改变主意——明确要发送虽然不是我们最新一代的芯片，尽管有报道称甚至连最新一代也在考虑之中。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: But, you know, the generation of chips, that's that's just one back that's still extremely powerful. And we are many years ahead of China in terms of our in terms of our ability to make chips. So I think it would be a big mistake to ship these chips.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 但是，你知道，仅落后一代的芯片仍然极其强大。而在制造芯片的能力方面，我们领先中国很多年。所以我认为运送这些芯片将是一个巨大的错误。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: You know, the the analogy I thought of, if you think about the incredible national security implications of building model, building models that are essentially cognition, that are essentially intelligence.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 你知道，我能想到的类比是，如果你考虑到构建模型——构建那些本质上是认知、本质上是智能的模型——所带来的不可思议的国家安全影响。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Right. I've called where we're going with this, a country of geniuses in the data center, right. So imagine 100,000, 100 million people smarter than any Nobel Prize winner. And it's going to be under the control of one, one country or another.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 对。我把我们要去往的方向称为“数据中心里的天才国度”（a country of geniuses in the data center），对吧。想象一下 10 万、1 亿个比任何诺贝尔奖得主都聪明的人。而这将处于某个国家的控制之下。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: So so I think this is crazy. I think it's you know, it's a bit like, you know, I don't know, like selling, selling, you know, nuclear weapons to North Korea and, you know, bragging. Oh, yeah, But we made that.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以——所以我认为这很疯狂。我觉得这有点像——你知道，我不知道，就像把核武器卖给朝鲜，然后还吹嘘说：“噢，是的，但这（钱）是我们赚的。”

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: You know, your friend your friend David Sacks is basically arming the Chinese. You know, I wouldn't refer to any particular people, but, you know, I would I would just say that this particular policy, I think, is is akin to. Yeah, not not, not, not, I think well-advised.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 你知道，你的朋友——你的朋友大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks）基本上是在武装中国人。你知道，我不想特指任何人，但是，你知道，我只想说，这项特定的政策，我认为类似于……是的，不是——不是——不是——我认为这不是明智之举。

请问您是否需要继续获取 第 4 章：经济现实：技术泡沫风险与企业落地滞后？

章节 4：经济现实：技术泡沫风险与企业落地滞后

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，Dario Amodei 将“技术指数级增长”与“经济扩散”区分开来。尽管他确信 AI 将在 1-2 年内超越人类智能，但他指出企业消化这项技术需要漫长的“变革管理”过程，目前的部署能力仅为技术潜力的十分之一。这种时间差导致了基础设施投资的巨大风险：企业必须在收入确定之前提前数年斥巨资购买算力，而这种盲目下注可能导致部分公司因“购买过量”而面临财务危机。

[原文] [Host]: Another issue in this, you know, could be you could be right all this technology be going in the right direction but economically we could be heading towards a bubble. Do you think that's true?

[译文] [主持人]: 在这方面还有另一个问题，你知道，也许你是对的，所有这些技术都在朝着正确的方向发展，但在经济上，我们可能正走向一个泡沫。你认为这是真的吗？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Yeah. Yeah. So I would separate out the two things. One is the basic exponential, and that's what we've been talking about. That's been kind of the technological direction.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 是的。是的。我会把这两件事分开来看。一个是基本的指数级增长，这就是我们刚才一直在谈论的。那是技术方向。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And there, you know, just like with Moore's Law, you can never be sure that the technology is sort of fully going to advanced. It's going to keep going. Right? It's a fundamentally inductive problem.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 在那里，你知道，就像摩尔定律一样，你永远无法确定技术是否会完全向前发展。它是否会继续下去。对吧？这本质上是一个归纳法的问题。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: But now that I've seen well over a decade of it, I would say I am pretty confident that it's going to continue, or at least I'm more confident than I've ever been at any time in the past that it's going to continue to where the models are basically smarter than humans at almost everything.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 但既然我已经观察了十多年，我想说我非常有信心它会继续下去，或者至少我比过去任何时候都更有信心它会继续下去，直到模型在几乎所有事情上都比人类聪明。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And I think there's a good chance that even happens in the next year or two. Again, it seems far away. But but this property of exponential that they like, they they they catch you by surprise.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我认为这很有可能在未来一两年内发生。再次强调，这看起来很遥远。但是——但是指数级增长的特性就在于，它们喜欢——它们——它们会让你措手不及（catch you by surprise）。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And if it's not a year or two, I think it's pretty likely that it's, you know, at least less than five years within the 2020s. I think this moment will come in the 2020.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 如果不是一两年，我认为很有可能——你知道，至少少于五年，在 21 世纪 20 年代之内。我认为这一时刻将在 2020 年代到来。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: So so, you know, kind of I'll get into that economic angle. Yeah, I'll get to the economic diffusion, which I think is complicated, but I don't want anyone to forget like that. You know that as long as we have that fundamental technological gain, like there's going to be many trillions of revenue, maybe many trillions per company in this in this area, because the economic potential is so great.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以——所以，你知道，我会谈谈那个经济角度。是的，我会谈到经济扩散（economic diffusion），我认为这很复杂，但我不希望任何人忘记这一点。你知道，只要我们拥有那种根本性的技术收益，这个领域就会产生数万亿的收入，也许每家公司都能达到数万亿，因为经济潜力是如此巨大。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Now there's a separate thing, which is that we don't know how fast enterprises companies are actually going to be able to use this technology. Right. The the the uses of this, what the technology is capable of today is probably ten times what the enterprise of the world are able to are able to deploy.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 现在有另外一件事，就是我们不知道企业实际上能多快地使用这项技术。对吧。这项技术的用途，它今天所能做到的，大概是世界上的企业能够部署的能力的十倍。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And I see it with our customers every day where I'll talk to a CEO and they'll understand and their executive team will understand the power of this technology, you know, for for automating customer service, for coding, for many other things.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我每天都能在我们的客户那里看到这种情况，我会和一位 CEO 交谈，他们明白，他们的高管团队也明白这项技术的威力，你知道，用于自动化客户服务、用于编程、用于许多其他事情。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: But they have a company of tens of thousands of people who are perfectly brilliant people but expert in something that is not A.I. and have to learn to use A.I. and that you know, different names for it change management, enterprise transformation, whatever it's called the need to do. This is very slow. It can take years.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 但他们拥有一家拥有数万人的公司，这些人都是非常聪明的人，但他们是各自领域的专家，而不是 AI 专家，他们必须学习使用 AI。而且你知道，这有不同的叫法——变革管理（change management）、企业转型（enterprise transformation），不管叫什么，这都需要做。这非常缓慢。可能需要数年时间。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And so we have this powerful technology that I have an incredible amount of confidence will generate trillions in revenue. But we don't know exactly when, you know, plus, plus or minus a few years. We don't know exactly when.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以我们拥有这种强大的技术，我有难以置信的信心它将产生数万亿的收入。但我们不知道确切的时间，你知道，可能会有几年的误差（plus or minus a few years）。我们不知道确切的时间。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And and and in the meantime, companies have to buy compute to serve all that revenue. And you don't want to buy too much because, you know, you could financially overextend yourself and you don't want to buy too little because then you can't serve all the revenue.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 而在此期间，公司必须购买算力（compute）来服务所有这些收入。你不想买太多，因为你知道，你可能会让自己在财务上过度扩张；你也不想买太少，因为那样你就无法服务所有的收入。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And so that's where the kind of economic and financial problems. So you are involved in building data centers, spending vast fortunes. You've got the deals with Belvedere. So you worry that that's going to come back and bite you.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 这就是经济和金融问题所在。[主持人插话]：所以你参与建设数据中心，花费巨额财富。你们和 Belvedere 达成了交易。所以你担心这会反噬你们吗？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: So so we have some advantages in this. There is a stability to enterprise business that there is not to consumer, right. Consumers, very fickle enterprise purchasing enterprise predictions are predictable.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以——所以我们在这方面有一些优势。企业业务有一种消费者业务所没有的稳定性，对吧。消费者非常善变，而企业采购、企业预测是可以预测的。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Also, enterprise tends to have better margins. The margin is basically how much buffer you have between buying too little and buying too much between what you have to pay for and what you have to support in revenue. So we have a number of advantages here.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 此外，企业业务往往有更好的利润率（margins）。利润率基本上就是你在买得太少和买得太多之间、在你必须支付的成本和必须支持的收入之间有多少缓冲。所以我们在这里有一些优势。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: But I you know, I won't deny that there is some inherent risk in any in all of the companies to this process. Whenever you have an upside whose amount is uncertain or even whose timing is uncertain, and you have to make financial decisions somewhat blind to those things, you have to you have to decide early to, you know, to to build out capital, to build out resources a few years in advance.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 但我——你知道，我不否认在这个过程中，对所有公司来说都存在一些固有的风险。每当你有了一个上行空间（upside），其数量不确定，甚至时间也不确定，而你必须在某种程度上对这些事情视而不见地做出财务决策——你必须尽早决定，你知道，提前几年建立资本、建立资源。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: There's going to be some inherent risk that's driven by that uncertainty. And I do think that some companies have probably overbought. I'm not able to look at their financials. I just know what they announce. And I'm like, Whoa, I wouldn't necessarily have done that.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 这种不确定性必然会导致一些固有的风险。而且我确实认为有些公司可能已经买多了（overbought）。我无法查看他们的财务状况。我只知道他们宣布了什么。我会觉得：“哇，我不一定会那样做。”

章节 5：社会契约的重构：就业冲击与财富分配

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，主持人追问 Dario Amodei 关于其曾预言的“白领工作大屠杀（white collar bloodbath）”。Amodei 承认 AI 是一项“极具分量”的技术，可能导致“高 GDP 增长与高失业率”并存的史无前例的经济局面。随着 AI 逐渐淹没人类的“认知水位线（cognitive waterline）”，大量白领将面临困境。为此，Anthropic 建立了“经济指数”来实时监测 AI 是在辅助还是替代人类。Amodei 认为，为了应对堪比“镀金时代”的贫富差距，未来的宏观干预（如税收）是必然的，但他批评当前的某些财富税提案（如加州）设计拙劣，呼吁科技界主动参与政策设计，以免被糟糕的法规反噬。

[原文] [Host]: Let's jump then. It's that big question which we originally asked Claude at the beginning, will I do do do good. Obviously, as you said, it's going to have a positive effect on GDP, perhaps on your wealth, too. But what about employment? Last year you predicted the kind of white collar bloodbath. You said it would wipe out 50% of entry level jobs. That's now four and a half years away. Do you still stand by that?

[译文] [主持人]: 让我们跳到下一个话题。这是一个大问题，我们一开始也问过 Claude，AI 真的会带来好处吗？显然，如你所说，它将对 GDP 产生积极影响，或许对你的财富也是。但就业呢？去年你预测了一场“白领大屠杀（white collar bloodbath）”。你说它会抹去 50% 的初级工作岗位。现在距离那时还有四年半。你依然坚持这个观点吗？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Yeah. So, you know, I you know, my view of of of I there's maybe two axes in terms of which two think there's good things happening versus bad things happening. And there's like A.I. is a small deal versus A.I. is a big deal. You know, my view is on the extreme side of I is a big deal, but I'm kind of in both side, both both top quadrants where I think some really good things will happen. And if we don't act to prevent them, some really bad things will happen. You know, we you know, I wouldn't be building this technology if I didn't believe that the good outweighed the bad and that we could mitigate the bad. That's why I warn about the bad, so that we could We can.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 是的。所以，你知道，我看待 AI 的观点——也许有两个轴线来思考：好事情发生与坏事情发生；以及 AI 是一件小事与 AI 是一件大事。你知道，我的观点处于“AI 是一件大事”的极端一侧，但我同时也处于上方的两个象限，即我认为会发生一些非常好的事情；但如果我们不采取行动去预防，也会发生一些非常糟糕的事情。你知道，如果我不相信好处大于坏处，并且我们可以减轻坏处，我就不会构建这项技术。这就是为什么我要对坏处发出警告，以便我们能够应对。

[原文] [Host]: How do you how do you think we mitigate it? Does that mean things like taxation?

[译文] [主持人]: 你认为我们要如何减轻它？这意味着像税收之类的措施吗？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Yeah. Well, let me let me just get to what I think the kind of the situation is. You know, I think exactly what you said. I think we could have this very unusual combination of very fast GDP growth and high unemployment or at least underemployment or, you know, low wage job, a lot of low wage jobs, high inequality. I don't think that's a macro correct me if I'm wrong. I don't think that's a macroeconomic combination we've ever seen before.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 是的。好吧，让我先说说我认为的情况是怎样的。你知道，我认为正如你所说的。我认为我们可能会面临一种非常不寻常的组合：极快的 GDP 增长伴随着高失业率，或者至少是就业不足，或者是——你知道——低薪工作，大量的低薪工作，以及高度的不平等。我不认为这是一种宏观——如果我错了请纠正我——我不认为这是一种我们以前见过的宏观经济组合。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: You think of fast growth, you're like, well, okay, maybe there's inflation, but you know, you're not going to have high unemployment when there's fast growth. I think this technology is a bit different because it's extreme in the way in the way it's going to it's going to it's going to generate value. But also because it's moving up the cognitive waterline, there's going to be, unfortunately, a whole class of people who are who are, I think, across a lot of industries going to have a hard time coping. And that's really a problem we need to solve.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 想到快速增长，你会觉得，好吧，也许会有通货膨胀，但你知道，当增长快速时通常不会有高失业率。我认为这项技术有点不同，因为它在创造价值的方式上是极端的。但也因为它正在提升“认知水位线（cognitive waterline）”，不幸的是，将会有一整类人——我认为是跨越很多行业的——将很难应对。这确实是我们需要解决的问题。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: So to get to the question you just asked, there's a few things Anthropic is doing. One is we maintain for almost a year now what we call the anthropic economic index, which is tracking how our models are used in real time. And because we see all these conversations, we can use quite itself to in a privacy preserving manner. Look across all the conversations and ask questions like, Is someone using this to augment a task to work together with the model or to delegate or fully automated task?

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以回到你刚才问的问题，Anthropic 正在做几件事。一是我们维持了近一年的所谓“Anthropic 经济指数（Anthropic Economic Index）”，它实时跟踪我们的模型是如何被使用的。因为我们能看到所有这些对话，我们可以利用模型本身——以保护隐私的方式——审视所有的对话并提出问题，比如：有人是在用这个来增强任务、与模型协同工作，还是在委托或完全自动化任务？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: What are the industries people are using called for statistically by distribution? What are the subtasks within those industries? Right. We can get into, you know, a lot of these like lead, you know, these very fine grained Labor Department statistics and ask all about it. Which states are using cloud more? What is we can watch the economic diffusion of cloud in real time.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 从统计分布来看，人们在哪些行业使用 Claude？这些行业内的子任务是什么？对。我们可以深入到——你知道——很多像劳工部那样非常细粒度的统计数据中去询问。哪些州使用 Claude 更多？我们可以实时观察 Claude 的经济扩散情况。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And and so the reason to do all this is that I don't think you can make good policy if you don't have the right data. And I worry that the data that the government produces as comprehensive as it is, just doesn't move fast enough and isn't detailed enough for this. So so, you know, that is that is kind of our first contribution.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 这样做的原因是，我认为如果你没有正确的数据，就无法制定好的政策。我担心政府生成的数据虽然全面，但在这种情况下更新不够快，也不够详细。所以——你知道，这算是我们的第一个贡献。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: We are thinking increasingly about this kind of I don't know if you want to call it retraining or ability to help people adapt. It's it's partly in line with kind of what we do in terms of go to market, Right. Part of our go to market activity is how to help you with that, but with great risk, great respect. I mean, you can do these things, but fundamentally it's a societal problem.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我们正越来越多地思考这种——我不知道你是否想称之为“再培训”或帮助人们适应的能力。这部分与我们在市场推广（go to market）方面所做的事情是一致的，对。我们市场推广活动的一部分就是如何在这方面帮助你，但我必须怀着极大的敬意说，尽管你可以做这些事情，但这从根本上讲是一个社会问题。

[原文] [Host]: You know, government, if you think about it, what you're describing is a perfect storm. You have GDP going up, the wealth of certain people going massively. Absolutely. And you are saying 50% of entry level jobs go people in real distressed. You are surely going to see a political. Change coming from this. And my personal bet would be, yes, you're going to get people trying to restrain the tech barons, but you would also get people saying, let's have higher taxes. We need to pay for this. Do you think higher taxes are coming?

[译文] [主持人]: 你知道，政府，如果你仔细想想，你所描述的是一场完美风暴。GDP 在增长，某些人的财富在海量增长。（Amodei: 绝对是。）而你说 50% 的初级工作岗位会消失，人们陷入真正的困境。你肯定会看到由此引发的政治变革。我个人的赌注是，是的，你会看到人们试图限制科技巨头（tech barons），但你也会看到人们说，让我们提高税收吧。我们需要为此买单。你认为更高的税收会到来吗？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: So, you know, my view again, you know, I was going to the kind of voluntary stuff we could do first, but but actually, I actually do believe that. I think this one is going to be big enough that, you know, at some point I think everyone's going to come to the realization that there needs to be some kind of macroeconomic intervention there.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以，你知道，我的观点再一次——你知道，我本打算先谈谈我们可以做的自愿性的事情，但实际上，我确实相信这一点。我认为这次的影响将足够大，以至于在某个时刻，我认为每个人都会意识到那里需要某种形式的宏观经济干预。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: You know, if we if we look at just the disparities in wealth that we have now, if we look at it as a fraction of GDP, I believe we've kind of exceeded the Gilded Age already. And this is mostly without without I. So I think things are going to go even further. And so, yeah, you know, my my guess is this is this is not even going to be a partisan thing.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 你知道，如果我们仅仅看看现在的财富差距，如果我们将它看作 GDP 的一部分，我相信我们已经超越了“镀金时代（Gilded Age）”。而这主要是在没有 AI 的情况下发生的。所以我认为情况会进一步发展。所以，是的，你知道，我的猜测是这甚至不会是一个党派问题。

[原文] [Host]: There's a wealth there's a wealth tax now in California. Are you supportive of that?

[译文] [主持人]: 加州现在有一个财富税。你支持那个吗？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: No, I think it's a great start. I think that's poorly designed. And, you know, my my my worry would be if we don't think about these things in a sober way, then we'll get things that are that are you know, that are that are kind of poorly designed.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 不，我认为这是一个很好的开端（注：此处原文可能有口误或讽刺，结合后文意为虽然出发点好但……）。我认为那个设计得很糟糕。而且，你知道，我担心的是如果我们不能清醒地思考这些事情，那么我们就会得到那些——你知道——设计得很糟糕的东西。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: So, you know, that would be that would be my message to, you know, the others in the world who are doing who are doing well in this boom is that, you know, if we if we don't think proactively about how to make this revolution work for everyone, we will get these proposals that don't make sense.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以，你知道，这就是我想传达给世界上其他在这场繁荣中做得很好的人的信息：如果我们要不主动思考如何让这场革命惠及每个人，我们就会得到这些毫无意义的提案。

章节 6：AI 安全与可解释性：打开“黑盒”

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，主持人提到了其他科技巨头对“人类灭绝风险”的轻描淡写，Dario Amodei 对此表示了严肃的担忧。他强调，虽然 AI 能治愈癌症，但作为具有自主性的认知系统，它也潜藏巨大风险。Amodei 详细介绍了 Anthropic 在“机械可解释性（mechanistic interpretability）”方面的研究——即像神经科学一样扫描模型的“大脑”，以发现并阻断欺骗、勒索等潜在意图。他呼吁全行业提高透明度，强制披露安全测试结果，而不是仅仅为了商业竞争而忽视安全。

[原文] [Host]: Just taking it a bit further, there's you know, people worry about the economic consequences, but there are other ones. Not that long ago I went to a panel with, I think a couple of your rivals, a couple of your peers, where they again, they put forward all the good things I would do. And then someone said, what about the risks? And one of them rather casually said, well, of course there's extinction risk and then moved on to another. And collectively around the room, people took a deep breath. And what he was talking about was the possibility of a bad actor getting hold of it, or the possibility ultimately of things like Claud running things. What does that fit into your.

[译文] [主持人]: 再深入一点探讨，你知道，人们担心经济后果，但还有其他的后果。不久前，我参加了一个小组讨论，我想是有几个你的竞争对手、你的同行在场，他们再次提出了 AI 能做的所有好事。然后有人问，那风险呢？其中一个人相当随意地说，嗯，当然存在灭绝风险（extinction risk），然后就转到另一个话题了。房间里的人集体倒吸了一口凉气。他所谈论的是坏人利用它的可能性，或者是最终像 Claude 这样的东西掌管一切的可能性。这对你来说意味着什么？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Yeah, yeah. You know, I've long been been worried about that as well. You know, just, just as I said, you know, I'm on the direction of like, this is a very powerful technology. Therefore the benefits are extreme. We're going to be able to, you know, do things like really seriously, really cure cancer or maybe eradicate tropical diseases.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 是的，是的。你知道，我也长期对此感到担忧。你知道，正如我所说，我的方向是——这是一项非常强大的技术。因此，其益处是极端的。我们将能够——你知道——做一些像真正严肃地治愈癌症，或者也许根除热带疾病这样的事情。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: But on the other side, look, we're building cognitive systems that have their own autonomy, Right. And we really need to think about that. And lycanthropy has been founded since the beginning with an intention to think about that. Right. You know, we publish probably almost every, you know, probably three or four times a month research on how to control these models, how to make sure that, you know, they they do what we want them to do and they don't run out of control.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 但在另一方面，看，我们正在构建拥有自己自主性的认知系统，对吧。我们要真正思考这个问题。Anthropic（原文误听为 lycanthropy）从创立之初就是为了思考这个问题。对。你知道，我们大概几乎每个月——大概每个月三四次——发布关于如何控制这些模型的研究，关于如何确保——你知道——它们做我们想让它们做的事，并且不会失控。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: We've pioneered one of my co-founders, Chris Ola, is, you know, kind of arguably, you know, the inventor of a field called mechanistic interpretability, which is basically when you look inside the brain, the artificial brain of of Claude or another A.I. model and try to trace mechanistically why it's doing exactly what it's doing.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我们开创了——我的联合创始人之一 Chris Olah（原文拼写为 Chris Ola），可以说——你知道——是一个叫做“机械可解释性（mechanistic interpretability）”领域的发明者。这基本上就是当你观察 Claude 或其他 AI 模型的人工大脑内部时，试图从机械原理上追踪它为什么要做它正在做的事情。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And we've seen things inside the model like, you know, in in lab environments, you know, sometimes the models will develop the intent to blackmail, the intent to deceive. And this isn't unique to court. If anything, this is worse in other models.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我们在模型内部看到了一些东西，比如——你知道，在实验室环境中——你知道，有时模型会产生勒索的意图、欺骗的意图。而且这并不是 Claude（原文误听为 court）独有的。如果有区别的话，在其他模型中情况更糟。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: These are things that if we don't train the models in the right way can emerge. And but we've pioneered the science of looking inside them so we can diagnose them and and, you know, prevent the models from happening, intervene and retrain the models so they don't behave in this way.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 如果我们要不以正确的方式训练模型，这些事情就会出现。但是我们开创了透视它们内部的科学，这样我们就能诊断它们，并且——你知道——防止这些情况发生，进行干预并重新训练模型，使它们不会表现出这种行为。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: That said, you know, we this is something we have to be careful about. We've we've, you know, supported various what, you know, light touch, transparency focused measures for making sure that, you know, all the companies have to talk about the tests that they run.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 话虽如此，你知道，这是我们必须小心的事情。我们——我们已经支持了各种——你知道——轻触式的（light touch）、注重透明度的措施，以确保——你知道——所有公司都必须谈论他们运行的测试。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: We always disclose our tests. We always, you know, basically we try and test our models to try and really stream them and get them to do the worst things possible in a test environment so that they never do those things in the real world. And we generally think every company should have to disclose or should have to run those tests and should have to disclose those tests.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我们总是披露我们的测试。我们总是——你知道——基本上我们试图测试我们的模型，试图真正地向它们施压（stream them 可能为 strain them 的误听），让它们在测试环境中做尽可能最糟糕的事情，这样它们就永远不会在现实世界中做那些事情。我们要普遍认为，每家公司都应该必须运行这些测试，并且应该必须披露这些测试。

[原文] [Host]: So this is you spend quite a lot of time thinking about this. You write pamphlets about it, about the consequences. There is an impression that most of your peers are going to head down and they're thinking purely about whether they can just keep ahead of the other. Do you think your industry is kind of immature in that way?

[译文] [主持人]: 所以这就是你花了大量时间思考的问题。你写关于这方面的小册子，关于后果。有一种印象是，你的大多数同行都埋头苦干，他们纯粹是在考虑是否能保持领先于其他人。你认为你们这个行业在那方面有点不成熟吗？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: You know, I can't speak to what the other players are are doing or why they're doing it. You know, I think there are at least some other players in in the ecosystem who I, you know, I think of as responsible who are at least thinking of things in the right way. I agree there are others who are not.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 你知道，我不能评论其他参与者在做什么或为什么这么做。你知道，我认为生态系统中至少有一些其他的参与者，我——你知道——我认为是负责任的，至少是以正确的方式思考问题的。我同意还有其他人不是这样。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: But. I would say what I have always tried to do and what Anthropic has always tried to do is, is to set an example and to try to inspire others to follow the example. We always publish our work on mechanistic interpretability. We always publish the tests we run.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 但是。我想说，我一直试图做的，以及 Anthropic 一直试图做的，是树立一个榜样，并试图激励其他人跟随这个榜样。我们总是发布我们在机械可解释性方面的工作。我们总是发布我们要运行的测试。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And honestly, there are a lot of other companies where, you know, their researchers basically say, Hey, why can't why can't we do that too? That seems like a responsible thing to do. That seems like the right way to develop the technology. And so you can kind of have an effect on the other players in the ecosystem.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 老实说，有很多其他公司，你知道，他们的研究人员基本上都在说：“嘿，为什么——为什么我们不能也那样做？那看起来是一件负责任的事情。那看起来是开发这项技术的正确方式。”所以，你可以在某种程度上对生态系统中的其他参与者产生影响。

章节 7：政治立场与未来展望

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，主持人尖锐地指出 Anthropic 似乎并未像其他科技巨头那样向特朗普“表忠心（kiss the ring）”。Dario Amodei 回应称，Anthropic 不根据政客或政府来站队，而是基于政策实质进行判断。他列举了与特朗普政府的潜在合作点（如能源数据中心建设）以及分歧点（如对华芯片解禁、州级监管问题）。关于未来的 IPO 计划，Amodei 坦承 AI 是资本密集型行业，虽然目前专注于产品研发，但“从未完全排除”上市的可能性。

[原文] [Host]: 111 very clear zone where you are different from your peers that you have not very obviously queued up to kiss the ring of Donald J. Trump. Are you still? What do you think of the current US President? You showed no signs of wanting to see him.

[译文] [主持人]: 有一个非常清晰的领域，你和你的同行们不同，那就是你并没有非常明显地排队去亲吻唐纳德·J·特朗普的戒指（意指效忠）。你还是这样吗？你如何看待现任美国总统？你表现得似乎并不想见他。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Look, so, I mean, you know, I wish I would. I would really put it in a different way. I don't think being for or against administrations or for or against politicians is is the right approach or that anthropic has anything to say one way or another on those topics.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 听着，那个，我的意思是，你知道，我希望——我会真的用另一种方式来表达。我不认为支持或反对某一届政府，或者支持或反对政客是正确的方法，也不认为 Anthropic 在这些话题上有什么偏向性的言论要发表。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: What I would say is that what Anthropic knows is I Anthropic knows very well the policy issues around A.I. and our approach, which, you know, I can't speak for others, but you know, indeed, indeed our approach may have been different is we think through the issues, we try and get a substantive view based on those issues, and then we say what we think.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我想说的是，Anthropic 所了解的是——Anthropic 非常了解围绕 AI 的政策问题。我们的方法——你知道，我不能代表其他人，但你知道，确实，确实我们的方法可能有所不同——是我们思考这些问题，我们试图基于这些问题得出一个实质性的观点，然后我们说出我们的想法。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And sometimes we will disagree with the current administration, just as we sometimes just like with China, with the last administration, and sometimes we agree.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 有时我们会不同意现任政府的意见，就像我们有时——就像在对待中国的问题上——与上一届政府有分歧一样；而有时我们会同意。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And it's worth highlighting the areas of agreement like the energy data center buildouts. We did this health pledge at the White House. You know, there are a number of areas, you know, when we saw the you know, the White House's air action plan last summer, actually, we liked most of that. That was actually a very well-written document.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 值得强调的是我们达成一致的领域，比如能源数据中心的扩建。我们在白宫做了这个健康承诺。你知道，有许多领域——你知道，当我们看到去年夏天白宫的 AI 行动计划时，实际上，我们喜欢其中的大部分内容。那实际上是一份写得很好的文件。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: So this is complex. There's not against and for. But again, when it comes to things like the chips in China, yeah, we disagree when it comes to putting a moratorium on state deregulation.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以这很复杂。不存在绝对的反对或支持。但是，再次强调，当涉及到像中国芯片这样的事情时，是的，我们不同意；当涉及到暂停州级放松管制（moratorium on state deregulation，注：此处可能指联邦干预州级监管权力）时，我们也不同意。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Yeah, we disagree because we disagree on the merits. It's not about liking or disliking a particular person. I don't I don't think that that that kind of thinking is going to get us out of this situation that we're in. We have to think based on substance.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 是的，我们不同意是因为我们在是非曲直（merits）上不同意。这不是关于喜欢或不喜欢某个人。我不——我不认为那种思维方式能让我们摆脱现在的处境。我们必须基于实质来思考。

[原文] [Host]: Are you going to see him when he comes to Davos tomorrow?

[译文] [主持人]: 明天他来达沃斯的时候你会去见他吗？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: I may. I think that would be an interesting change.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我可能会。我认为那会是一个有趣的变化。

[原文] [Host]: One final last question. What happens to entropic? What happens? Do you have a I think what since we have supposedly a 350 billion implied valuation, would you consider an IPO this year?

[译文] [主持人]: 最后一个问题。Anthropic（原文误听为 entropic）会发生什么？会发生什么？你有一个——我想既然我们据说有 3500 亿（注：此处可能口误或指代行业规模/特定估值传闻，通常 Anthropic 估值为百亿级）的隐含估值，你会考虑今年 IPO 吗？

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Look, I mean, you know, I we are we are most focused on, you know, just trying to make the best models and just trying to, you know, build products on top of those models and just trying to, you know, sell those models to enterprises in ways that are useful, you know, their their large capital needs for that for the for the field.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 听着，我的意思是，你知道，我——我们——我们最关注的是，你知道，只是试图制造最好的模型，只是试图在这些模型之上构建产品，只是试图以有用的方式将这些模型出售给企业。你知道，这个领域有巨大的资本需求。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: So that that should be considered. But, you know, that's where our focus is.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以那（IPO）是应该被考虑的。但是，你知道，我们的重心是在产品上。

[原文] [Host]: That implies that you do need a lot of money though.

[译文] [主持人]: 但这意味着你们确实需要很多钱。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: I mean, you don't need to ask me to know that this is a capital.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我的意思是，你不需要问我也知道这确实是资本密集型的。

[原文] [Host]: So an IPO isn't completely out of the question and it's never completely out of the question. Those the IPO and Donald Trump with both possibles in your life.

[译文] [主持人]: 所以 IPO 并不是完全不可能的，它从来都不是完全不可能的。IPO 和唐纳德·特朗普都是你生活中可能发生的事。

[原文] [Host]: Derek Derek, thank you very much for talking to us. We now know all about mechanistic interoperability and we've had a view inside your brain and it's not a bad one. Thank you.

[译文] [主持人]: Dario（原文误听为 Derek），Dario，非常感谢你和我们交谈。我们现在对“机械互操作性（mechanistic interoperability，注：主持人此处口误，应为 mechanistic interpretability 机械可解释性）”一清二楚了，我们也看了一下你的大脑内部，看起来还不错。谢谢。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Thank you for having me, John.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 谢谢你邀请我，John。