章节 1：开篇与AI技术栈的演变（SaaS的衰退与PaaS的崛起）

📝 本节摘要：

Cathie Wood 首先奠定了本次分享的背景，旨在回应近期市场因“AI炒作”、“加密货币崩盘”及宏观经济变量而产生的恐慌情绪。在详细拆解AI技术栈时，她指出“平台即服务”（PaaS）层（以Palantir为例）正成为最大的赢家，录得惊人的增长；相反，“软件即服务”（SaaS）层则成为AI革命的受害者，预计未来将面临显著的市场份额流失与行业整合。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: greetings everyone this is kathy wood ceo and cio of arc invest it is employment friday uh but there's no employment report uh we will have that next week but given all of the fireworks uh in the market and all the drama recently uh i felt it was important uh to to do in the no or at least on the in the know part one today just to address uh the the three topics that we think have really unnerved the markets ai hype crypto meltdown and macro macro statistics but more macro um variables like fedspeak

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 大家好，我是ARK Invest的CEO兼CIO Cathie Wood。今天是“就业周五”，但没有发布就业报告，我们要到下周才能看到。鉴于市场上所有的动荡和最近发生的种种戏剧性事件，我觉得今天有必要做一期“In the Know”（或者至少是第一部分），专门回应一下我们要讨论的三个话题，我认为这三个话题确实让市场感到不安：AI炒作、加密货币崩盘以及宏观统计数据，或者更确切地说是宏观变量，比如美联储官员的讲话。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh so let's go through each one of those uh and we'll start with the uh ai hype so you can see from this first chart here uh what our predictions in december of 2024 were for really the tech stack uh as ai uh was evolving uh and you can see here that we saw rapid growth in all three areas of the tech stack so the infrastructure layer the platform layer and the application layer uh that was true uh in the four years ended or five years ended 24 and our expectations uh for the next five to si x years

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那么让我们逐一过一遍，首先从“AI炒作”开始。大家可以从这第一张图表中看到，我们在2024年12月对随着AI发展而演进的技术栈所做的预测。你们可以看到，我们观察到技术栈的所有三个领域都出现了快速增长：基础设施层、平台层和应用层。这在截至24年的过去四年或五年中是事实，也是我们对未来五到六年的预期。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: now what we also pointed out below is that there were share shifts taking place place in terms of incremental growth among these three uh and you can see that the big winner was platform as a service think palunteer one of uh the most important companies in this ai revolution uh and its growth rate us commercial alone uh last quarter was 142% in revenue growth uh no other software company is coming close to that at least in the public equity markets

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们在下面还指出了一点，就是这三个领域在增量增长方面正在发生份额转移。大家可以看到最大的赢家是“平台即服务”（Platform as a Service），比如Palantir，它是这场AI革命中最重要的公司之一。它上个季度仅在美国商业领域的营收增长率就达到了142%。至少在公开股票市场上，没有其他软件公司能接近这个数字。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: in the in the private markets of course uh you've got the frontier model players um running away with 250 to 850% growth rates uh think open ai and and anthropic in the last year year and a half annualized um you can see the big loser we thought was going to be the application layer uh largely software as a service

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 当然在私募市场上，那些前沿模型参与者正以250%到850%的增长率绝尘而去，比如OpenAI和Anthropic在过去一年或一年半的年化增长率。你们可以看到，我们认为最大的输家将是应用层，主要是“软件即服务”（SaaS）。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh now if there's something wrong with this chart uh you can see it is in our projection for software as a service going forward on the top there uh 20% plus uh it's not going to be anything like that in fact uh we do bel ieve that software as a service is becoming a victim of this ai revolution there will be uh consolidators uh and and software as a service providers who do survive this route they will consolidate the market

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 如果说这张图表有什么问题的话，那就是我们在顶部对“软件即服务”未来的预测——20%以上。实际上根本不会是那样。事实上，我们要相信“软件即服务”正成为这场AI革命的受害者。市场上会出现整合者，那些能在这次溃败中幸存下来的“软件即服务”提供商将整合这个市场。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh but we we underestimated ourselves we were saying they that sas was going to lose share we didn't realize how much how soon and that g gives you a sense of uh how quickly uh this revolution is happening uh 142% for palunteer uh uh us commercial in one quarter uh we didn't expect that either in fact our kagger our compound annual rate of uh revenue growth assumption which we thought was enormous at the time for the next five years for palunteer itself uh is 55% that could be wrong too maybe it's too low uh so here we are

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但我们也低估了自己的判断。我们曾说过SaaS会失去份额，但我们没意识到会失去得这么多、这么快。这让你能感觉到这场革命发生得有多快。Palantir在美国商业领域单季度增长142%，这也是我们没预料到的。事实上，我们对Palantir未来五年的复合年均营收增长率（CAGR）假设是55%，当时我们觉得这个数字已经很大了，但这也可能是错的，也许太低了。所以这就是现在的状况。

章节 2：巨头资本支出激增与市场基准的博弈

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，Cathie Wood 深入剖析了市场对“Mag Six”（科技六巨头）大幅增加资本支出（CapEx）的恐慌情绪。她指出，传统且对基准敏感（benchmark sensitive）的投资者习惯于看到巨额现金流，因此对亚马逊等公司资本支出翻倍感到震惊，甚至将其视为负面信号。相比之下，ARK Invest 着眼于未来，认为这些支出是必要的，并解释了为何传统投资组合经理因受制于指数权重而被迫“做空”或减持这些股票，从而导致了近期的股东换手。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: okay next uh uh what about all of these capital spending announcements uh from the hyperscalers especially this is unnerving uh the the the mag six uh or investors holding the mag six uh these investors many of them benchmark sensitive what does that mean for people who who don't understand what that means

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 好的，接下来我们谈谈，特别是来自超大规模云计算厂商（Hyperscalers）的那些资本支出公告是怎么回事？这确实让人不安。对于“Mag Six”（六巨头）或者持有这六家公司股票的投资者来说，其中许多人是对基准敏感（benchmark sensitive）的。对于不理解这个词的人来说，这意味着什么呢？

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: um the market since the tech and telecom bust and uh so that was the early 2000s and the uh 0809 meltdown has become uh much more quantitatively driven uh which means uh that many portfolios are guided heavily by the indexes out there now to give you a sense of that um amazon and nvidia in uh the nasdaq 100 uh are in the 3 to 4% range uh in terms of the holdings

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 实际上，自从科技和电信泡沫破裂（那是2000年代初）以及08-09年的金融危机以来，市场变得更加由量化驱动。这意味着许多投资组合在很大程度上是由指数引导的。为了让你有个概念，亚马逊和英伟达在纳斯达克100指数中的权重大概在3%到4%的范围内。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and uh what benchmark sensitivity means is uh portfolio managers will say okay uh i am betting against let's just say nvidia for argument sake uh nvidia i think is at a 3.4% position in uh the nasdaq 100 uh and so those portfolio managers will take their position down from maybe they were optimistic on nvidia and they were at 3.8 well they'll take it down to three and to them that's betting against uh nvidia uh and uh and to them that's also taking a big risk because they're being compared against other managers who are doing much the same thing

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所谓的“基准敏感性”是指，投资组合经理会说：“好吧，我要‘做空’（或者说看空）英伟达。” 举个例子，假设英伟达在纳斯达克100指数中的权重是3.4%。那么这些投资组合经理会将他们的仓位下调——也许他们之前对英伟达持乐观态度，持有3.8%的仓位，现在他们会将其降至3%。对他们来说，这就是在“做空”英伟达。而且对他们而言，这也是在冒很大的风险，因为他们的业绩是与那些做着同样事情的其他经理进行比较的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh as you know arc invest doesn't think that way at all uh we are uh focused on the future and uh we're very focused on pure plays not that i mean we do hold both nvidia and um and meta uh in our funds but for the most part certainly in our our flagship strategy uh we're well below that weight well below in the one to one and a half% range just to give you an example of uh how how portfolio management has evolved over the years in the traditional asset management world

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 如你所知，ARK Invest完全不这么思考。我们关注的是未来，我们非常专注于纯粹的创新标的（pure plays）。这并不是说我们不持有——我们的基金里确实持有英伟达和Meta，但在大多数情况下，肯定是在我们的旗舰策略中，我们的持仓权重远低于那个基准，大概在1%到1.5%的范围内。这只是为了给你们一个例子，说明在传统资产管理世界中，投资组合管理多年来是如何演变的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: um so i think that the shareholder base holding the mag six they have gotten so used to uh cash hordes and massive key uh free cash flow generation that this is a big shock to them seeing these hyperscalers uh take uh their capital spending budgets up 100% in one year uh i think amazon announced it would go from roughly 90 billion uh to uh 180 billion next year or this year 2026 that's shocking to people

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以我认为，持有“六巨头”的股东群体，他们已经太习惯于看到巨额的现金储备和大规模的自由现金流生成了。因此，看到这些超大规模厂商在一年内将资本支出预算提高100%，对他们来说是一个巨大的冲击。我想亚马逊宣布它的支出将从大约900亿美元增加到明年的1800亿美元（或者是今年2026年），这让人们感到震惊。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and uh we're seeing some of the mag six uh uh raising debt even that has been anathema to this group uh so we do think we we're seeing a a shareholder turnover uh not massive because of what i just described about benchmarks um but uh we don't think necessarily that they are doing the wrong things meaning the hyperscalers uh we think google is doing the right thing um and all of the amazon all of this spending we think is the right thing to do uh but this is not what traditional portfolio managers who are benchmark sensitive uh are used to grappling with

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们甚至看到一些“六巨头”公司在举债，这在过去对这个群体来说是不可想象的（anathema）。所以我们要认为，我们正在见证一场股东换手——规模可能不是巨大的，因为我刚才描述了基准的限制因素——但我们并不认为他们（指超大规模厂商）做错了什么。我们认为Google做的是对的，亚马逊所有的这些支出也是对的。但这确实不是那些对基准敏感的传统投资组合经理习惯应对的情况。

章节 3：历史视角下的芯片周期与泡沫估值对比

📝 本节摘要：

在本章中，Cathie Wood 将目光投向了半导体市场的演变，预测未来将从GPU向ASIC（专用集成电路）转移。她通过对比铁路、汽车和互联网时代的资本支出周期，论证了当前AI基础设施投资的合理性，并借用“暗光纤”与“活跃GPU”的比喻，强调当下的芯片需求是真实且迫切的。最关键的是，她通过图表对比指出，尽管资本支出激增，但当前“科技六巨头”的估值倍数远低于2000年互联网泡沫顶峰时期，市场并未出现非理性的过度繁荣。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and then you can see just to throw in uh another perspective here we also see that the chip market is is going to um transform or evolve i should say uh in the next five years uh a little bit uh from e uh gpus taking share uh to as6 t taking share and so uh we've um highlighted that there could be a shift from the likes of nvidia's chips uh amd's chips uh to broadcom's chips

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 此外，为了提供另一个视角，大家可以看到我们也认为芯片市场在未来五年将发生转型，或者应该说演变。市场份额将从GPU稍微向ASIC（专用集成电路）转移。因此我们要强调，可能会出现一种转变，从像英伟达（NVIDIA）、AMD这样的芯片，转向博通（Broadcom）这样的芯片。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh now uh we think that there's going to be a massive appetite for all chips uh but did want to highlight this share shift as well uh much like we highlighted the shift to away from sas uh toward platform as a service

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 当然，我们认为对所有芯片的需求都将是巨大的，但我们确实想强调这种份额的转移，就像我们要强调从SaaS向“平台即服务”的转移一样。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh now this spending is it justified this chart brett winton our chief futurist um prepared for big ideas 2026 uh it highlights the technology revolution investment cycles here and you can see the railroad in the 1800s railroad spending as capital spending as a percent of gdp got into that five to six% range

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那么，现在的这种支出合理吗？这张图表是我们的首席未来学家Brett Winton为《Big Ideas 2026》准备的。它突出了技术革命的投资周期。你们可以看到19世纪的铁路，铁路支出作为资本支出占GDP的比例达到了5%到6%的范围。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh then you go to uh the automobile in red there uh but we have multiple flat platforms evolving at the same time and this is additive so maybe with telephone electricity and the automobile uh we would see capital spending um up at that cumulatively up at that uh five to six% range

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 然后看那里红色的部分，那是汽车。但我们现在有多个平台在同时演进，这是具有叠加效应的。所以如果是电话、电力和汽车加在一起，我们可能会看到资本支出累计达到那个5%到6%的范围。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh and then you get to the internet um the tech and telecom boom uh and you can see it looks like it pales in comparison to those other two uh but we do have an additive uh situation going on here uh and you can see that adding all of those together is maybe the equivalent of just the automobile cycle uh in the early 1900s

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 然后到了互联网，也就是科技和电信繁荣时期。你们可以看到，相比于前两者，它显得相形见绌。但我们这里确实有一种叠加的情况。你可以看到，把所有这些加在一起，也许只相当于1900年代初的汽车周期。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and then here we are uh and we we believe the these are our forecasts and they have been our forecasts and we haven't changed our forecast in the last year uh but we've got something additive going on here as well um that could accumulate to 12% or more of gdp

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 然后就是我们要处的现在。我们相信这些是我们的预测，而且一直是我们的预测，我们在过去一年里没有改变过。但我们这里也有叠加效应在发生，这可能会累计达到GDP的12%或更多。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: now just to give you a sense of uh or some perspective i remember in the bubble uh te te telecom equipment spending on the part of some uh providers got up to 25% of gdp and as i always say too much too soon uh and uh and we ended up with a lot of dark fiber it didn't go live for a very long time

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 现在为了给你们一些概念或视角，我记得在泡沫时期，某些电信提供商的设备支出曾高达GDP的25%。正如我常说的，“太早投入太多（too much too soon）”。结果我们最终留下了大量的“暗光纤”（dark fiber），它们在很长一段时间内都没有被启用。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: one thing we can say about this cycle is the demand for gpus is voracious and they are landing in these data centers uh which are saying we need more capacity we need more chips uh those gpus are not dark uh and i'm stealing that from uh brad gersonner at altimter i thought that was a very good analogy the fiber went dark gpus are alive and there's a big scramble for them now

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 关于这个周期我们可以说的一点是，对GPU的需求是如饥似渴的。它们正落地进入那些数据中心，而数据中心在说：“我们需要更多产能，我们需要更多芯片。” 那些GPU不是“暗”的——我是借用了Altimeter的Brad Gerstner的话，我觉得这是一个非常好的比喻：光纤变暗了，而GPU是活的（alive），现在大家都在疯抢它们。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: the risk here is and you know i have an economics background and i'm always looking for those risks whenever i hear the word shortage uh i usually um believe that there's going to be a glut an inventory glut at some point and i'm sure there will be in the chip space uh but i don't think it's going to be for a long time

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这里的风险在于——你知道我有经济学背景，我总是在寻找那些风险——每当我听到“短缺”这个词，我通常会认为在某个时刻会出现过剩，库存过剩。我确信芯片领域也会出现这种情况，但我认为这不会在很长一段时间内发生。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh you need to listen to elon musk who's talking about uh chips and power as uh you know for as far as the eye can see u being in short supply uh and uh now that he's thinking about putting data centers into space perhaps even more so

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 你们需要听听Elon Musk的说法，他说芯片和电力在可预见的未来都将处于短缺状态。而且既然他在考虑把数据中心放到太空中，这种短缺可能就更是如此了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: so on this next chart this this is getting uh to investors um so you can see on the left here the the tech sector capital spending as a percent of gdp and you can see that it has gotten up to uh be bubble days uh and that's a little bit unnerving to investors and here's why many of the most seasoned investors today um were very young when the tekken telecom bubble took off and now they are the gray hairs

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 在下一张图表中，这是针对投资者的。你们可以看到左边这里，科技行业的资本支出占GDP的百分比。你们可以看到它已经上升到了泡沫时期的水平，这对投资者来说有点让人不安。原因在于：当今许多最资深的投资者在科技电信泡沫腾飞时还非常年轻，而现在他们已经生了华发（gray hairs）。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh and i'm friends with a lot of them uh and many of them are saying been there done that i'm leading uh this organization now and i'm going to protect it from this bubble uh and uh we understand that um but as i just described we have really just started this journey and we expect the capital spending cycle to go much further for much longer

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我和他们中的许多人都是朋友。他们很多人都在说：“我经历过那个，做过那个。我现在领导这个机构，我要保护它免受这次泡沫的影响。” 我们理解这一点。但正如我刚才描述的，我们真的才刚刚开始这段旅程，我们预计资本支出周期会走得更远、持续更久。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh and uh the reason is the technologies are ready you know uh back in the '9s we didn't get the cloud even until 2006 uh but there were visions of you know eyeballs uh uh in 10 years uh being the source of valuation today uh we didn't get the cloud till or or back then we didn't get the cloud until ' 06 we didn't get the first big breakthrough in ai until deep learning imageet in 2012 even bigger and more profound transformer architecture in 2017 and even off of that we didn't get chat gbt the aha moment until the end of 22 early 23 so we have just begun this journey

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 原因在于技术已经成熟了。你知道，在90年代，我们直到2006年才有了云技术。当时虽然有关于“眼球经济”的愿景，认为10年后它将成为估值的来源。我们在2006年才有了云；我们在2012年ImageNet出现时才取得了AI的第一次重大突破——深度学习；2017年有了更大、更深远的Transformer架构；即便如此，直到22年底23年初ChatGPT出现，我们才迎来了那个“顿悟时刻”（aha moment）。所以我们才刚刚开始这段旅程。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh now one other difference very important you can see from this chart is the valuations today are much different than they were at the peak of the bubble uh so the dash line there you can see are uh that is the valuation of the mag six uh and you can see how crazy the valuations did get uh at a time when the technologies weren't ready and the costs were too high

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 另一个非常重要的区别大家可以从这张图上看到，今天的估值与泡沫顶峰时期截然不同。那条虚线是“六巨头”的估值。你们可以看到，在那个技术尚未成熟且成本过高的时期，估值变得多么疯狂。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh so the multiples being paid today are nothing like back then and in fact since this chart was done the multiples have dropped even lower uh because it is the mag six uh and and fears around what are they doing with all of this capital spending return on invested capital is going to go down that's why i own this stock uh and that's why a lot of quants or quantitative research is a little bit um i would say a little dangerous here uh because a lot of it's momentumdriven

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以今天支付的倍数完全不能和那时候相比。事实上，自从这张图表制作完成以来，倍数甚至降得更低了。因为这是“六巨头”，人们担心他们用这些资本支出做什么，担心投入资本回报率会下降。这就是我持有这些股票的原因。这也是为什么我认为很多量化研究在这里有点……我会说有点危险，因为很多是动量驱动的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and here we are uh there's a great disruption taking place uh called ai and these companies must invest in it uh if they want to remain relevant and they must seize the moment uh but short-term oriented shareholders don't really want to hear that

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们正处于一个名为AI的巨大颠覆之中。这些公司必须投资于它，如果他们想保持相关性，他们必须抓住这个时刻。但短期导向的股东真的不想听这些。

章节 4：比特币的波动性与“三重革命”论点

📝 本节摘要：

Cathie Wood 将话题转向加密货币市场，分析了比特币近期价格腰斩与黄金走势背离的现象。她指出两者相关性极低（仅0.14），并认为当前的负面情绪恰恰是布局良机。她重申了ARK的核心论点：比特币集“三重革命”于一身——即全球货币系统、支持AI代理商业（Agentic Commerce）的技术平台，以及能优化投资组合的新资产类别。她认为机构投资者正逐渐意识到其低相关性带来的配置价值。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: so on this next chart we're heading into crypto uh and we'll loop back to ai at the very end uh crypto here i think the disconnect and this is also from big ideas uh is hey look at what the gold price has done in the last few years and look at what's happened to bitcoin

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那么在下一张图表中，我们要进入加密货币领域，最后我们会再绕回AI。关于加密货币，我认为这里存在某种脱节——这也来自《Big Ideas》——大家看看过去几年金价的表现，再看看比特币发生了什么。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh now this is a log chart so um you can see uh gold has had a massive move to the upside uh this chart ends in at the end of 25 and of course uh i think last night we got down to roughly $60,000 in in bitcoin so really cut in half since its peak in october what is going on here isn't bitcoin supposed to be digital gold if it's digital gold why isn't it behaving like gold

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这是一个对数图表。你们可以看到黄金经历了大幅上涨。这张图表截止到2025年底。当然，我想昨晚比特币跌到了大概60,000美元，所以自去年10月的峰值以来真的是腰斩了。到底发生了什么？比特币不应该是“数字黄金”吗？如果是数字黄金，为什么它的表现不像黄金？

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh and a couple of points to make here if you do the correlation between bitcoin and gold their returns uh since 2019 and and i put this in uh my new year's letter you can see the matrix there if you'd like um the correlation has been 0.14 uh one is perfect correlation uh and here we are at 0.14 very low almost no correlation uh so that is very important to understand

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这里有几点需要说明。如果你计算一下自2019年以来比特币和黄金回报率的相关性——我也把它放在了我的新年信中，如果你感兴趣可以去看那个矩阵——相关性一直是0.14。1代表完全相关，而我们这里只有0.14，非常低，几乎没有相关性。这一点非常重要，需要理解。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: um what you can also see here though is gold tends to precede a big move in bit uh in bitcoin uh you can see the circles there and we'd have a gigantic circle around what has happened recently um and and so maybe that will happen again uh we actually think it will

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 不过在这里你也能看到，黄金往往会领先于比特币的大幅波动。你们可以看到那些圆圈标记，我们可以在最近发生的事情周围画一个巨大的圆圈。也许这种情况会再次发生，实际上我们认为会的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: i cannot tell you how many bare stories i've heard about bitcoin uh in in the last few weeks uh last few months um and just go on to x and you'll find all kinds of reasons why you must sell bitcoin and these are the the periods that are kind of interesting uh we post our trading at the end of every day and you'll say you'll see that we had been nibbling at our our cryptoexposed stocks we didn't know how far this was going to go and maybe it's not over not promising that but um uh there was so much negative sentiment that uh i i felt okay you know we need to leg in and lean into this if our research is correct

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我无法告诉你，在过去几周、几个月里，我听到了多少关于比特币的看空故事。只要上X（原Twitter）看看，你会发现各种理由告诉你必须卖掉比特币。而这些时期其实挺有意思的。我们每天收盘后都会公布交易情况，你们会看到我们一直在小幅买入（nibbling）那些有加密货币敞口的股票。我们不知道跌势会持续多久，也许还没结束——我不做保证——但由于负面情绪如此之重，我觉得好吧，如果我们的研究是正确的，我们就需要分批买入并在这个时候加码。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh that this um this bitcoin is three revolutions in one it's a global digital private very important rules-based even more important monetary system uh and that's a very big idea

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 因为比特币是“三场革命集于一身”。第一，它是一个全球性的、数字化的、私有的——这一点很重要——且基于规则的——这一点更重要——货币系统。这是一个非常宏大的构想。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: um the second revolution is it is a technology it's a a new technology it's uh it's really adding another layer i would say to the internet so that we have um native currencies native to the internet uh that will be able to handle uh agentic commerce uh and uh other other such agentic movements taking place out there uh that's a very big idea

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 第二场革命是它是一种技术，一种新技术。我会说它真的在给互联网增加另一个层级，使我们拥有了互联网原生的货币。这将能够处理“代理商业”（Agentic Commerce，指由AI代理进行的商业活动）以及外界正在发生的其他类似的代理活动。这也是一个非常宏大的构想。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and then uh and it won't be of course just bitcoin it'll be ether importantly ether uh salana maybe hyperlquid we shall see um but what's interesting about this period is the big three have been identified uh and those are bitcoin ether and salana

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 当然不仅仅是比特币，还会有以太坊（Ether）——以太坊很重要——还有Solana，也许还有Hyperliquid，我们拭目以待。但这个时期有趣的是，“三巨头”已经被确定了，那就是比特币、以太坊和Solana。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: you know the worry historically has how many of these things are there going to be is this going to be a very fragmented situation uh and we're learning uh we we're learning who the big winners are are going to be who the big winners are uh and i think that's a very important

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 你知道，历史上的担忧一直是：到底会有多少这种东西？这会不会变成一个非常碎片化的局面？但我们正在了解，我们正在了解谁会是那些大赢家。我认为这非常重要。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and then the third revolution is this is a new asset class bitcoin is leading the way it is the mo most secure of all the crypto uh currencies out there backed by the largest computer network in the world uh and so really an anchor to um an asset allocator looking to move into this new world

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 第三场革命是这是一种新的“资产类别”。比特币在领跑，它是所有加密货币中最安全的，由世界上最大的计算机网络支持。因此，对于想要进入这个新世界的资产配置者来说，它真的是一个锚点。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and why would an asset allocator do that well if we're right and well the it's a fact that at least over the last five years the correlations have been uh the correlation has been as low as 0.14 um the key to successful diversification um for asset allocators is um adding new assets with very low correlation to all of the other assets in the ecosystem uh and uh this one qualifies

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 为什么资产配置者要这么做？如果我们是对的——而且这是一个事实，至少在过去五年里，相关性低至0.14——对于资产配置者来说，成功多元化的关键在于添加与其他所有资产生态系统相关性极低的新资产。而比特币符合这个条件。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh why do they want that it is because with that low correlation introducing it um risk adjusted returns go up over time uh and so i do think institutions are serious about this new asset class they may have been reticent uh to move in because they were hearing about the four-year cycle the four-year cycle and lo and behold and i'll i'll hats off to chris berniski who uh has been uh very right in in calling for whether it's the four-year cycle or whatever uh just this downdraft

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 为什么他们想要这样？因为引入这种低相关性资产后，风险调整后的回报率会随着时间推移而上升。所以我确实认为机构对这个新资产类别是认真的。他们之前可能因为听到关于“四年周期”的说法而对于入场保持缄默（reticent）。瞧，我要向Chris Burniske致敬，他在预测这种下行趋势方面——不管是四年周期还是什么——是非常正确的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: um and so it's close to it's closing in on the low point that many uh technical analysts are suggesting um as the place where it should stop uh these the these are very volatile moments uh at at at or near the bottom um but uh we usually do look back and say "wow i wish i had caught that low this v-shaped recovery um uh has been quite significant not promising uh i want to make i want to make sure that there are no promises here uh but it does seem like the stars are aligning

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 它正在接近许多技术分析师建议的低点，即跌势应该停止的地方。在底部或接近底部时，这些时刻总是波动剧烈的。但我们通常回过头看时会说：“哇，我真希望我抓住了那个低点。” 这次V型反弹已经相当显著了。我不是在承诺——我想确保这里没有承诺——但看起来确实像是“星象对齐”（stars are aligning，意指时机成熟）了。

章节 5：回应量子计算对加密货币安全性的威胁

📝 本节摘要：

针对近期市场关于“量子计算破解比特币”的恐慌（Bugaboo），Cathie Wood 进行了正面回应。她引用了 Michael Saylor 的观点以及 ARK 首席未来学家 Brett Winton 的研究数据，指出目前 Google 等领头羊在量子比特数量上的增长速度实际上慢于摩尔定律。即使假设未来研发速度翻倍，量子计算机对比特币区块链构成实质威胁的时间点也要等到 2040 年代中期。她认为近期比特币“元老”（OGs）的钱包异动更多是出于资产多元化或人生阶段变化的需求，而非真正的安全危机。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and um i guess i'll move on to the next one so what has been the biggest bugaboo in as it relates to bitcoin or the worry that we've heard about more than anything else in the last few weeks because it's all about uh quantum computing the last few weeks have been uh you know lots of stories about quantum computing

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那么我想我要进入下一个话题了。关于比特币，最大的“恐惧源”（bugaboo）是什么？或者说过去几周我们在所有事情中听到的最多的担忧是什么？那就是量子计算。过去几周关于量子计算的故事层出不穷。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and i would say uh the the large shift in bitcoin uh the ogs selling uh or just shifting uh wallets to more quantum resistant wallets um so i think that's really uh caused a lot of concern

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我想说，比特币出现的大规模转移——那些“元老”（OGs）在卖出，或者仅仅是将资金转移到更具“抗量子”特性的钱包中——我认为这确实引发了很多担忧。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and uh here's michael sailor's uh answer or i mean he was very reasonable last night in his discussion around quantum he doesn't think it's going to be an issue for 10 years or more uh but he said "here's what we're doing uh in terms of our commitment to bitcoin security." um and and so you can see some of those um those moves now

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这是 Michael Saylor 的回答。我是说，他昨晚关于量子计算的讨论非常理性。他不认为这在未来10年或更长时间内会成为一个问题，但他表示：“这是我们在致力于比特币安全方面正在做的事情。” 所以你们现在可以看到一些相关的举措。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: but i also wanted to show our research again this is out of big ideas uh and this is when the quantum controversy uh had quieted down uh last year as it relates to bitcoin uh so brett winton uh in as chief futurist has um has a a a big focus on quantum because we can't miss the next big thing it's all we do is disruptive innovation and here i thought was a compelling analysis

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但我也想再次展示一下我们的研究，这同样出自《Big Ideas》。这是去年当关于比特币的量子争议平息下来时做的。我们的首席未来学家 Brett Winton 非常关注量子计算，因为我们不能错过下一个大事件，我们要做的就是颠覆性创新。我认为这里有一个非常有说服力的分析。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh based on what has happened with quantum computing so far and you and google really leading the charge uh that little black line on that chart so you can see that um it has been able to double the number of cubits over four years which is slower than moors law in the semiconductor space and of course there there is an error rate consideration lowering that as well over four years

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 基于目前量子计算的发展情况——Google 确实在领跑，就是图表上那条黑色小线——你可以看到，它能够每四年将量子比特（qubits）的数量翻一番，这比半导体领域的摩尔定律还要慢。当然，还有错误率的考量，这也在这四年中降低了速度。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: um so if if google does not pick up speed the red line tells you how long it will take google to and uh and quantum computing uh to really threaten bitcoin the bitcoin blockchain as we know it now uh so we go into the60s there

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以，如果 Google 不加快速度，那条红线会告诉你 Google 和量子计算需要多长时间才能真正威胁到比特币——即我们现在所知的比特币区块链。那我们要一直等到 2060 年代。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: now if you make the assumption that google is going to pick up the pace uh and that's an interesting assumption because typically we learn a lot in the early years of a new technology you know um how how quickly are the units increasing and driving costs down that's the learning curve associated uh with new technologies um but let's assume it assume it does pick up the pace doubles the pace to moore's law okay then uh we have a problem in the mid40s

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 现在，如果你假设 Google 会加快步伐——这倒是个有趣的假设，因为通常我们在新技术的早期阶段会学到很多东西，比如单元数量增长多快、成本下降多快，这就是与新技术相关的学习曲线——但让我们假设它确实加快了步伐，速度翻倍达到摩尔定律的水平。好吧，那么我们在 2040 年代中期会遇到问题。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh so i don't want to make light of it uh i do think it has caused movement uh uh among of bitcoin uh between wallets between and among wallets are they leaving the crypto ecosystem some say yes maybe they're diversifying into other crypto assets as um as the defi ecosystem evolves here

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以我不想轻视这个问题。我确实认为这导致了比特币的移动——在钱包之间、在不同钱包之间。他们是在离开加密生态系统吗？有人说是的。也许随着 DeFi 生态系统的演变，他们正在分散投资到其他加密资产中。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh i don't know how likely that is because these are bitcoin ogs they've been there uh forever and um so we'll see uh maybe they're diversifying because they were hodddlers and now they're 10 15 years older and they have families and you know their risk profiles have gone down um they should they should diversify any financial advisor would say so um we'll find out uh but um uh i thought brett added some good perspective here

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我不知道这种可能性有多大，因为这些人是比特币“元老”（OGs），他们从一开始就在那里。所以我们拭目以待。也许他们正在进行多元化配置，因为他们曾经是“囤币党”（HODLers），而现在他们老了10岁、15岁，有了家庭，你知道他们的风险偏好降低了。他们应该多元化，任何理财顾问都会这么说。我们会找到答案的，但我认为 Brett 在这里提供了一些很好的视角。

章节 6：宏观流动性、黄金走势与通缩信号

📝 本节摘要：

在本章中，Cathie Wood 转向宏观经济分析。她指出流动性指数近期下滑，主要受政府关门威胁及美联储量化紧缩（QT）未如期停止的影响，但预计监管层将根据市场信号做出反应。她特别分析了“金属/黄金比率”与国债收益率相关性的断裂，将其归因于“日元套利交易平仓”（Yen Carry Trade Unwind）。此外，她列举了汽油、房租、零食（百事/Frito-Lay降价15%）及GLP-1减肥药价格的大幅下调，强调通缩信号正在显现，通胀正向行解决。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh now going into economics and again i'll i'll whip through this last part because um i'll do a a more in depth in the note next week when the employment numbers do come out so here you can see the liquidity index uh this is dan rodriguez's chart and you'll can you'll see liquidity dropped to uh dropped to a low level in november why was that it was the government shutdown and we thought okay this is going to be shortterm liquidity will pick back up and the market uh will will take off again and uh that is what happened

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 现在进入经济学部分，同样我会快速过一遍这一部分，因为下周就业数据出来时我会在报告中做更深入的分析。大家可以看到流动性指数，这是Dan Rodriguez的图表。你们可以看到流动性在11月跌到了一个低位。为什么会那样？是因为政府关门。我们当时想，好吧，这将是短期的，流动性会回升，市场会再次起飞。这也确实发生了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh but recently you can see that it is back down and what's happening there well we had the threat of the shutdown and now we actually have the shutdown partial shutdown uh and in midfebruary i think it's i think it might be february 14th there's going to be a vote around uh the department of homeland security's budgeting and you know it may shut down more completely then so i do think there is somewhat of a liquidity drain

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但最近你们可以看到它又降下来了。发生了什么？我们面临关门的威胁，现在实际上已经有了关门，部分关门。在2月中旬，我想可能是2月14日，将会有一场关于国土安全部预算的投票。你知道那时可能会更完全地关门。所以我确实认为存在某种程度的流动性流失（liquidity drain）。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and then the other thing that's happening is the the fed was supposed to stop quantitative tightening in early december and it and it did for the most part um but its provision of liquidity to the system is lower than many analysts expected um in recent days in recent days it has started to pick up you're seeing some of that now

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 另一件正在发生的事是，美联储本应在12月初停止量化紧缩（Quantitative Tightening），它在很大程度上确实停止了。但它向系统提供的流动性比许多分析师预期的要低。在最近几天，它已经开始回升，你们现在可以看到一些迹象了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh and i do think the fed and the treasury are beginning to respond to what has happened to the financial markets this administration uh does think does believe that the financial markets provide important signals and so they are probably assessing the liquidity liquidity uh conditions out there and um and moving accordingly so i do think this one is probably moving in the other direction

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我确实认为美联储和财政部正开始对金融市场发生的情况做出反应。本届政府确实认为金融市场提供了重要的信号，所以他们可能正在评估那里的流动性状况，并采取相应的行动。所以我确实认为这（流动性）可能会向另一个方向发展。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh here you go uh you've seen this chart many times metals to gold uh uh we've learned something very important and i'll spend more time on this in uh next week um but what surprised me and this is up to date up to date is with the fall off in gold recently that the metals to gold ratio has not picked up that is really surprising to us

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 接下来这个，这张图你们见过很多次了：金属/黄金比率（Metals to Gold）。我们学到了一些非常重要的东西，下周我会花更多时间讲这个。但让我惊讶的是——这是最新的数据——随着近期金价回落，金属/黄金比率并没有回升。这真的让我们很惊讶。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: um we've learned in recent weeks uh why the treasury yield uh has been levitated this very tight correlation between the metals to gold ratio and the treasury yield broke down starting with the fed tightening and you know it's still gaping wide

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们在最近几周了解到了为什么国债收益率一直居高不下。金属/黄金比率与国债收益率之间这种非常紧密的相关性，从美联储紧缩开始就破裂了。你知道，现在的缺口依然很大。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: um we're learning and believing more and more that this is the yen carry trade unwind what are they doing selling treasuries and buying japanese bonds why because japanese interest rates have gone up and so the the uh us treasury bill is less of a uh less less interesting it's still above the short-term rates in japan but less so much less so actually and could continue in that direction

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们正在了解并越来越相信，这是“日元套利交易平仓”（Yen Carry Trade Unwind）。他们在做什么？卖出美国国债，买入日本债券。为什么？因为日本利率上升了，所以美国国库券就没那么有吸引力了。虽然它仍然高于日本的短期利率，但差距缩小了，实际上缩小了很多，而且可能会继续朝这个方向发展。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: if uh the current uh prime minister i is uh uh she just called a snap election and i think it's for this weekend and um if she gets a a large majority larger majority she will amp fiscal spending even higher and that will probably take their interest rates higher

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 如果现任首相——她刚刚宣布了提前大选，我想就在这个周末——如果她获得了多数席位，更大的多数席位，她将进一步扩大财政支出，这可能会推高他们的利率。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh nonetheless the purple side is puzzling i think it has to do with uh deflation uh coming out of china uh and impacting the global ecosystem sure we've seen some metals go up but this ratio going down uh even further as gold goes down is most surprising here

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 尽管如此，紫色那部分还是很令人费解。我认为这与来自中国的通缩有关，这正在影响全球生态系统。当然我们看到一些金属价格上涨，但在金价下跌的同时这个比率还在进一步下降，这是最令人惊讶的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh i just want to go through i i presented this chart at the last in the no so we'll we'll just give you a sense of how crazy it got a couple of weeks ago gold going parabolic uh as a percent of m2 and many people pushed back on our use of us m2 you can't get global m2 back into the 20s and the us still is the reserve currency i don't think the message would be much different with a global m2

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我只想过一下——我在上期“In the Know”中展示过这张图——让你们感受一下几周前的情况有多疯狂。黄金占M2（广义货币供应量）的百分比呈抛物线走势。很多人反对我们使用美国M2数据，说无法获得20年代的全球M2数据，而且美国仍然是储备货币。我认为如果用全球M2，传达的信息也不会有太大不同。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh so you can see it hit an all-time high higher than the great depression uh at uh 1.6 6 versus 1.76 versus uh 1.71 in the great uh great depression in the 20s today it's at 1.54 so we do think the bloom is off the rose but it's still at very extended levels

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 你们可以看到它创下了历史新高，甚至比大萧条时期还高，达到了1.66（原文口误修正对比：1.76 或 1.71 在大萧条/20年代）。今天它回到了1.54。所以我们确实认为这股狂热（bloom is off the rose）已经退去，但仍然处于非常过度的水平。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh and we wouldn't be surprised if gold continued to come down uh to bitcoin's benefit we shall see and also i think uh bitcoin has been hurt uh by all of the funds flowing into ai that became the interesting uh investment opportunity and that one is has become a little shaky so i think you know these three gold ai and bitcoin are interrelated in that way

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 如果金价继续下跌，从而利好比特币，我们不会感到惊讶。我们拭目以待。另外我也认为，比特币受到了一些资金流向AI的打击，因为AI成了有趣的投资机会，而现在AI那边变得有点动摇了。所以我认为这三者——黄金、AI和比特币——是以这种方式相互关联的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: now gold is a hedge against inflation look what trueflation is telling us uh it's telling us inflation is resolving to the downside it is not moving up uh and there are a few things going on uh gasoline prices until very recently maybe housing prices and that's going to continue as rents come down

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 黄金是对冲通胀的工具。看看Trueflation告诉我们什么——它告诉我们通胀正在向行解决（resolving to the downside），并没有上升。有几件事正在发生：汽油价格（直到最近）、也许还有房价，随着租金下降，这种情况还将继续。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh and even potato chips pepsi fredo doritos cutting prices 15% and hims and hers uh uh although the ftc or no it's yes i think the ftc uh is going after them uh cutting the price of glp1s uh to 40 i think at $49 um whereas uh i think novon nordisk has cut its entry price or introductory price to $149 and then it's going to move them up to $199 these this is deflation this is deflation

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 甚至薯片——百事（Pepsi）、菲多利（Frito-Lay）、多力多滋（Doritos）正在降价15%。还有Hims & Hers——虽然FTC（联邦贸易委员会）好像正在调查他们——他们把GLP-1药物的价格降到了49美元。而我认为诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）已将其入门价格降至149美元，之后会涨到199美元。这些就是通缩，这就是通缩。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh and um we we're going to see a lot more of it we believe

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而且我们要相信，未来我们会看到更多这样的情况。

章节 7：就业结构变化、生产力繁荣与未来展望

📝 本节摘要：

在最后的章节中，Cathie Wood 分析了劳动力市场的结构性矛盾：虽然婴儿潮一代的退休维持了整体低失业率，但16-24岁年轻人的失业率却显著上升（超过10%）。她认为AI将大幅降低创业门槛，促使年轻人转向自主创业。展望未来，她预测随着技术革命的推进，GDP增长率将迎来“阶梯式”跃升（预计达到7-8%）。最后，她通过对比当前市场对科技巨头资本支出的恐惧与1999年互联网泡沫时期的盲目狂热（以杰夫·贝佐斯的轶事为例），再次强调当前并未处于泡沫之中，而是处于“超级指数级”增长的前夜。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: unemployment rate uh and of course all of this is uh is trying to figure out okay what's the fed going to say next uh i was uh very surprised that uh federal u federal reserve governor bostik said employment is very strong and he's looking at the overall unemployment rate and when you have 1.3 million baby boomers leaving per year um you know the overall unemployment rate is probably going to stay fairly low

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 关于失业率，当然所有这些分析都是为了弄清楚美联储接下来会说什么。我很惊讶美联储理事Bostic说就业非常强劲，他看的是整体失业率。但你要知道，每年有130万“婴儿潮一代”（Baby Boomers）离开劳动力市场，所以整体失业率很可能会保持在相当低的水平。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and we've also got um uh immigrants who are uh exiting and we don't have as much of an inflow of immigrants so the unemployment rate is going to stay low overall uh but you can see what's happening to the 16 to 24 year olds uh their unemployment rate has gone up from roughly 7% to more than 10% the last time i presented this it was 12.2% 2% but uh i think there were downward revisions and we'll we'll get to the bottom of that but still 10%

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而且我们要看到移民正在离开，而新进入的移民没有那么多，所以整体失业率会保持低位。但你可以看看16到24岁的年轻人发生了什么：他们的失业率已经从大约7%上升到了超过10%。我上次展示这个数据时是12.2%，我想可能有向下修正，我们会弄清楚底细，但依然是10%。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and the duration of employment almost a half a year uh so i do think that the the concern about employment will build as more and more fed governors understand entrylevel jobs are disappearing and so a very important demographic uh is not getting jobs

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而且失业持续时间几乎达到了半年。所以我确实认为，随着越来越多的美联储理事意识到入门级工作正在消失，对就业的担忧将会加剧。这是一个非常重要的人口群体，他们没有得到工作。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh we do think that's going to change um as a lot of these young people go out there and go for it in terms of starting their own businesses because the barrier to innovation the barrier to uh starting new businesses is dropping precipitously with uh ai

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们确实认为这种情况将会改变，因为许多年轻人会走出去，放手一搏去创业。因为随着AI的出现，创新的门槛、创办新企业的门槛正在急剧下降。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: i'm just going to end on two charts uh uh once again we're very optimistic about gdp growth we think we're going into a super a productivitydriven boom and just reminder the step uh function change in gdp growth when we had the last big technology revolution which was uh the early 1900s that growth rate uh stepped up from 0.6 to 3% five-fold and we're saying 7 to 8% by the end of the decade uh so i think that's conservative given all of the well given the technology revolution underway

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我最后只讲两张图表。再一次，我们要对GDP增长非常乐观，我们认为我们正进入一个超级生产力驱动的繁荣期。提醒一下，上次我们经历重大技术革命（那是1900年代初）时，GDP增长率发生了“阶梯式变化”（step function change），增长率从0.6%提升到了3%，翻了五倍。而我们要说的是，到本年代末将达到7%到8%。考虑到正在发生的技术革命，我认为这还是保守的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and finally this is how we think uh that that innovation is going to play out in uh the equity markets the market cap uh on on the right hand side there you can see what happened to uh railroad stocks as a percent of um as a percent of the total global equity market cap 65% uh you can see where we are now and we think this revolution is is even bigger as i mentioned and really just starting in its first few years at least and you you can see where we think innovation is going to go as a percent of global market cap uh again we've just begun

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 最后，这就是我们要认为创新将在股票市场上如何演绎的。看右边的市值图，你可以看到铁路股票曾经占全球总股票市值的百分比是多少——65%。你可以看到我们现在在哪里。正如我提到的，我们认为这场革命甚至比那更大，而且真的才刚刚开始，至少还在最初的几年。你可以看到我们要认为创新将在全球市值中占据多大的比例。再说一次，我们要刚刚开始。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh we don't think ai hype is where we are at all we do not think we're in the equivalent of the tech intell telecom bubble we're very happy that many people are worried about it in the tech and telecom bubble nobody was worried about anything

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们根本不认为现在处于所谓的“AI炒作”中，我们也不认为我们处于相当于科技电信泡沫的时期。我们要很高兴看到许多人在担心这个。在科技电信泡沫时期，没有人担心任何事情。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: in fact i'll remember clearly uh jeff bezos at amazon and i think this was in 1999 um he with some glee uh announced on on amazon's earnings call that amazon was going to lose so much more money in the next year because uh amazon jeff had decided this opportunity was so much bigger than anyone understood and by the way he was right um it was going to take much longer uh that he had to up the capital spending budget it

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 事实上我记得很清楚，亚马逊的杰夫·贝佐斯，我想那是1999年。他在亚马逊的财报电话会议上带着些许喜悦（glee）宣布，亚马逊明年将亏损更多的钱。因为亚马逊——杰夫决定，这个机会比任何人理解的都要大得多。顺便说一句，他是对的，只是需要的时间比预想的要长得多。他当时说他必须增加资本支出预算。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh and what happened that day the stock just soared soared uh and one of um our panelists on our brainstorm this week reminded me that um that a a journalist asked jeff "well what is how do you spell profit in this new world what does that mean?" and he spelled it p r o p h t

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那天发生了什么？股价直接飙升，飙升！我们本周头脑风暴会的一位小组成员提醒我，当时有位记者问杰夫：“在这个新世界里你怎么拼写‘利润’（profit）？那意味着什么？” 杰夫拼出来的是“P-R-O-P-H-E-T”（先知，与profit谐音）。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: um so that's how cavalier uh ceos of innovation-based companies were back then those driving the innovation and then of course they paid a heavy price for that uh over the next three to four years

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那时候，那些创新型公司的CEO们，那些推动创新的人，就是那么漫不经心（cavalier）。当然，随后他们在接下来的三四年里为此付出了沉重的代价。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh the fear in the market today when i see uh microsoft going down 12% because it's doubling its capital spending over the next year or amazon going down 8 n 10% because it's doubling its capital spending over the next um completely different response completely different um investor mindset

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而今天市场上的恐惧是：当我看到微软因为明年资本支出翻倍而下跌12%，或者亚马逊因为同样原因下跌8%到10%时——这是完全不同的反应，完全不同的投资者心态。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh i think there's real fear out there that was one of the reasons gold went up uh fear of everything and i just think and this is why i wanted to do the call today i just think we're in a completely different era no resemblance to the late 90s i was there uh and uh i think we're in for very exciting times and don't underestimate uh the growth rates that these new technologies are going to spur

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我认为外面存在真正的恐惧，这也是黄金上涨的原因之一——对一切事物的恐惧。这也是我想在今天做这次通话的原因。我认为我们处于一个完全不同的时代，与90年代末毫无相似之处。我当时就在那里。我认为我们要将迎来非常激动人心的时刻，不要低估这些新技术将激发的增长率。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh we think they're going to be super exponential growth rates and palanteer is a very good example of that no one expects the 142% uh us commercial revenue growth to be sustained we don't either but you know if it were able to sustain you know 70 80% which is higher than what we have in our model um that stock would be a screaming buy today

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们认为那将是超级指数级的增长率。Palantir就是一个很好的例子。没人指望那142%的美国商业营收增长能持续，我们也不指望。但你知道，如果它能维持在70%或80%——这比我们模型中的数据要高——那这只股票在今天绝对是值得疯狂买入的（screaming buy）。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh so we are assessing all of this as everyone else is uh in the financial world it's a really exciting time it's a confusing time there's going to be a lot of chaos you saw a lot of auto manufacturers uh basically shutting down their ev efforts they couldn't scale them uh quickly enough to capture the cost declines they're giving up

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以我们要像金融界的其他人一样评估这一切。这是一个非常激动人心的时刻，也是一个令人困惑的时刻，会有很多混乱。你看到很多汽车制造商基本上关闭了他们的电动车项目，因为他们无法足够快地扩大规模以获取成本下降的优势，他们正在放弃。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: and one of the most interesting uh ideas i heard on our brainstorm today uh was the idea that well who's going to roll the auto sector up normally you think it'd be an auto company one of the big ones uh someone suggested no maybe it's google they need cars

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我今天在头脑风暴中听到的最有趣的想法之一是：谁将会整合（roll up）汽车行业？通常你会认为是一家汽车公司，某个巨头。但有人建议说：“不，也许是Google，他们需要汽车。”

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh so with that uh i know we have a we have a relief rally today in uh friday um and no one knows what the future really holds uh but um i just wanted to be in front of everybody because i know how harrowing it must have felt over the last week uh and just wanted to reinforce our point of view uh because we think a lot of the data that has come out recently does just that so i'll see you next week

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 就说到这里。我知道今天周五我们迎来了一次缓解性的反弹（relief rally）。没人知道未来真正会怎样。但我只是想在大家面前露个面，因为我知道过去一周大家一定感觉非常煎熬（harrowing）。我只是想强化我们的观点，因为我们要认为最近出来的很多数据正是支撑了这些观点。那么，我们下周见。