📝 本节摘要：

本节对话以 Jeetu Patel 分享 Cisco 成为 Codex 设计合作伙伴为开端。Sam Altman 透露 Codex 是近期最大的 AI 更新，其能力已达到临界点（Threshold），这种变化将极大创造经济价值并改变 OpenAI 及其他公司的工作方式。Altman 认为这给他带来了如同初次见到 ChatGPT 般的震撼时刻。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: let me start with some good news i don't know if you know this but we are the first design partner for Codeex

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 让我先分享一些好消息，不知道你是否知情，但我们是 Codex 的首家设计合作伙伴。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: i did know that um and uh thank you and you know in the past few months I think we've hit an exponential curve um AI defense was a product that we launched over here last year in about two weeks or three weeks 100% of the code in AI defense will be written with codeex it that's unbelievable um I Codex has been my biggest update on AI in a while uh the the app that we launched yesterday it just pushed things over the edge for me of where it's I'm like "All right this is going to create an unbelievable amount of economic value extremely quickly this is going to change how all of OpenAI works and change how other companies work." Um it yeah the model's really hit some threshold and I think now the interface and harness has caught up and I think this is the first this you're talking about chatbt moments I think this is like the first time I felt another chat GPT moment for here her

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 我确实知道，嗯，谢谢。你知道，在过去的几个月里，我认为我们已经触及了一个指数级增长的曲线。AI Defense（注：指 Cisco 的安全产品）是我们去年在这里发布的产品，大约两三周内，AI Defense 中 100% 的代码都将由 Codex 编写，这简直令人难以置信。嗯，Codex 是我一段时间以来在 AI 方面见过的最大更新。昨天我们发布的那个应用程序，对我来说真的把事情推向了临界点，让我觉得：“好吧，这将极快地创造出难以置信的经济价值，这将改变 OpenAI 的整体工作方式，也将改变其他公司的工作方式。”嗯，是的，模型确实达到了某种阈值，而且我认为现在的界面和驾驭能力（harness）也已经跟上了。你说到“ChatGPT 时刻”，我认为这是我第一次在这里再次感受到那种“ChatGPT 时刻”。

章节 2：知识工作的未来：全权代理与计算机控制

📝 本节摘要：

Sam Altman 探讨了知识工作的未来形态，即从单纯的代码生成进化为“代码+通用计算机使用能力”。他分享了个人经历：最初抗拒给 AI 完全的电脑控制权，但仅坚持了两小时就因其巨大的实用性而妥协。他认为，让 AI 代理（Agent）像人类一样操作浏览器和文档，是知识工作转型的必然方向。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: e is a a clear clear glimpse of the future of knowledge work and how enterprises and individual people are going to use AI to work in a completely different way so what's the upper limit on this do you think

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: [这]清晰地展示了知识工作的未来，以及企业和个人将如何以一种完全不同的方式使用 AI 进行工作。那么你认为这其中的上限在哪里？

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um I mean the upper limit I think is like full AI companies there's probably an upper limit beyond that the current one I can think about is full AI companies and that seems very powerful like this the idea that a coding model can create a full complex piece of software but also interact with the rest of the real world to build a company around it is a very big deal

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 嗯，我的意思是，我认为上限就像是“全 AI 公司”，在那之上可能还有上限，但我目前能想到的是全 AI 公司，这看起来非常强大。这种想法，即一个编程模型不仅能创建一个完整的复杂软件，还能与现实世界的其他部分互动，围绕它建立一家公司，这是一件非常了不起的事情。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: and then this this notion of what's happening right now I'm sure you're tracking this with Moldbook and um what happened with Cloudbot is it just a passing fad or do you think that there's something that we should take away from that on um

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 还有关于现在正在发生的事情的概念，我确信你在关注 Moldbook（注：音译），以及 Cloudbot（注：可能指 Claude 或相关机器人）发生的事，这只是一时的狂热，还是你认为我们应该从中吸取什么教训？

[原文] [Sam Altman]: No I I think it is definitely not a passing well mold book maybe i don't know but uh open claw is not um I I think this idea that code is really powerful but code plus generalized computer use is even much more powerful is here to stay

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 不，我认为这绝对不是一时...好吧，Moldbook 也许是，我不知道，但 Open Claw（注：原文如此，可能指 OpenAI 的 Operator 或类似技术）不是。我认为这个观点是：代码确实很强大，但代码加上通用的计算机使用能力要强大得多，而且这种趋势会持续下去。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: the fact I when I initially installed Codex I said I was never going to give Codex full control of my computer with without checking what it was doing and that lasted about like two hours because it was so useful and then I and then I kind of got persuaded by people that I really shouldn't have it running like that so now I have two laptops until I figure out how this is all going to work

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 事实上，当我最初安装 Codex 时，我说过我绝不会在不检查它在做什么的情况下给 Codex 我电脑的完全控制权。这大概持续了两个小时，因为它太有用了。然后...然后我被人们说服了，觉得真的不应该让它那样运行，所以现在我有两台笔记本电脑，直到我弄清楚这一切将如何运作。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: but giving an AI agent full use of your computer and your web browser with all your sessions leads to incredible stuff and that seems here to stay the the the idea that we can take a codeex style workflow and expand it to all knowledge work um so that whatever you're doing codecs can be or what some version of that can be using your computer and using the web for you and editing documents and whatever other kind of work you need um feels like a genuine transformation in how knowledge work will happen

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 但是，给一个 AI 代理（Agent）你电脑和网页浏览器的完全使用权，包括所有的会话，会带来不可思议的事情，这似乎会持续下去。这种想法，即我们可以采用 Codex 式的工作流并将其扩展到所有知识工作...这样无论你在做什么，Codex 或者某种版本的 Codex 都可以为你使用电脑、使用网络、编辑文档以及做任何你需要的工作...这感觉像是知识工作方式的一场真正的变革。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: and that I think OpenClaw did an incredible job of bringing many ideas together to make that feel usable and real and that seems certain to be part of our future

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 我认为 OpenClaw 在这方面做得令人难以置信，它将许多想法融合在一起，使其感觉可用且真实，这似乎肯定会成为我们未来的一部分。

章节 3：多智能体协作与新型社交网络

📝 本节摘要：

Altman 展望了一种全新的社交互动模式。在未来，人们可能拥有多个代理（Agent）在一个空间内互动。这不是传统的人际社交，而是代理之间为了寻找信息、协作创意而进行的交互。这种“代理人网络”可能预示着社交网络的未来形态。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: i think moldbook is cool uh and I think it points to something that will be real and maybe it will be mold book uh but there will be new kinds of social interaction where you have many agents in a space interacting with each other on behalf of people uh leading to all sorts of new things

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 我觉得 Moldbook（注：音译，可能指某特定应用）很酷，我认为它指向了一些将成为现实的东西，也许就是 Moldbook 本身，但也可能会有新型的社交互动，在一个空间里有许多代理（Agents）代表人们相互互动，从而引出各种新事物。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: it's like you you can imagine a totally new kind of social network where everybody makes an agent or many agents and puts them in there and the agents are talking and doing stuff and finding them people and information and collaborating with other people's agents to come up with new ideas that I'm sure there will be an interesting

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 你可以想象一种全新的社交网络，每个人都制作一个或多个代理并把它们放进去，这些代理在那聊天、做事、为主人寻找人脉和信息，并与其他人的代理协作想出新点子。我确信那会很有趣。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: I think the future of social may look something like that very different than today whether it's multiplic or not uncertain sure

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 我认为社交的未来可能看起来像那样，与今天截然不同。至于是不是 Multiplic（注：原文此处可能再次指代 Moldbook 或类似平台），还不确定。

章节 4：非显性瓶颈：软件架构与安全范式的重构

📝 本节摘要：

Jeetu 询问除了基础设施外的“非显性瓶颈”。Altman 指出两个关键点：1. 安全与数据访问的平衡需要新范式；2. 现有软件（如 Slack）的设计是为人而非为 AI 服务的，这导致代理在操作时会破坏人类的工作流（如误读消息）。未来软件可能需要重写，以适应“人机共用”或“AI 专享”的架构。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: and so if you think about the constraints that we are facing today you know besides the obvious ones the infrastructure ffstruure and the compute and the power and all of those pieces are there any non-obvious constraints that are actually going to that are holding us back because you know people always say in the short term you always overestimate the impact of these technologies and longer term it's going to be grossly underestimated but what what are the non-obvious constraints that you see right now like you're like man I wish if I had a magic wand if I change that

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 那么，如果你考虑到我们今天面临的制约因素，除了那些显而易见的，比如基础设施、算力、电力以及所有这些部分，还有没有任何非显而易见的制约因素实际上正在阻碍我们？因为你知道，人们总是说短期内我们总是高估这些技术的影响，而长期来看又会严重低估。但你现在看到的非显性制约是什么？比如你会想，“天哪，如果我有一根魔杖，希望能改变那个。”

[原文] [Sam Altman]: so I think the obvious constraints are the biggest ones uh still energy manufacturing enough hardware all that kind of stuff the non-obvious ones that are most top of mind for me one how are we going to balance the sort of security and data access versus the utility of all of these models um I don't think anyone has a great answer to this yet i it feels to me like there is a new kind of security or data access paradigm that needs to be invented for this

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 我认为显而易见的制约因素仍然是最大的，比如能源、制造足够的硬件以及诸如此类的事情。我脑海中最关注的非显性因素，第一是我们将如何平衡安全性、数据访问权限与所有这些模型的实用性。我认为目前还没有人对此有很好的答案，给我的感觉是，这需要发明一种全新的安全或数据访问范式。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um another is how are we going to rewrite all software to be equally usable by humans and AIs there's like a bunch of weird quirks right now about trying to do that with the way software works and does that change the architecture of the software itself where you're going to optimize it for agents more so than humans and so it fundamentally changes how you build software yes and there's like big examples of that and then there's like dumb examples of that

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 另一个是我们如何重写所有软件，使其对人类和 AI 都同样可用。现在尝试用软件现有的工作方式去做这些事会有很多奇怪的麻烦。这是否会改变软件本身的架构？你会更多地为代理而不是人类去优化它吗？所以这从根本上改变了你构建软件的方式，是的。这方面有大的例子，也有蠢的例子。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: so for example uh I I would love my agent to be able to use Slack on my behalf because I hate drowning in Slack and I think it's like this chaotic mess for me and but it's important uh but the way it works right now is my agent can use the Slack web interface and go read all my threads and do something for me but then it has marked a bunch of stuff as red in the process of doing that and it's broken my workflows broken your workflows yeah so I don't like that's just a silly example of how software is not like a lot of software is not quite meant for an AI and a person to be using it together

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 比如，我很希望我的代理能替我使用 Slack，因为我讨厌淹没在 Slack 里，对我来说那就像一团混乱，但它又很重要。但它现在的工作方式是，我的代理可以使用 Slack 网页界面去阅读我所有的帖子并为我做些事，但在做的过程中它把一堆东西标记为已读了，这就破坏了我的工作流。（Jeetu: 破坏了你的工作流，是的。）所以我不...这只是一个愚蠢的例子，说明软件...很多软件并不是为了让 AI 和人一起使用而设计的。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um maybe we'll want AIs to like have different sort of user accounts in some ways using the same kinds of things maybe a lot of software will get rewritten so that it's primarily or largely used by AI but also still works for people using it the oldfashioned way

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 嗯，也许我们会希望 AI 拥有不同的某种意义上的用户账户来使用同样的东西。也许很多软件会被重写，使其主要或大部分由 AI 使用，但也仍然适用于用老式方法操作的人。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um another kind of non-obvious block is how like one of the most powerful things about AI is you could do this sort of always on computing where you could have an AI um listening to your meeting or watching your meeting and you know watching what you're doing on your computer and uh then just like add a lot of value and do stuff for you

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 另一个非显性的障碍是...比如 AI 最强大的功能之一就是你可以进行这种“始终在线”的计算，你可以让一个 AI 听你的会议或看你的会议，你知道，看着你在电脑上做什么，然后增加很多价值并为你做事。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: we don't even our like existing computer hardware is not really meant for that our permissioning system and how we think about what an AI gets to see and do stuff with and what it gets to keep is not really meant for that um our legal system doesn't really support that well you'd like to be able to you know record a meeting and learn something from it and delete the recording uh so I think there's a lot of just usability things like that

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 我们甚至...我们现有的计算机硬件并不是真的为此设计的，我们的权限系统、我们关于 AI 可以看到什么、操作什么以及保留什么的思考方式，也不是真的为此设计的。我们的法律体系也不太支持这一点。你会希望能够，你知道，录制一个会议，从中学习一些东西，然后删除录音。所以我认为有很多像这样的可用性问题。

章节 5：能力过剩危机与“AI队友”心态

📝 本节摘要：

对话转向“能力过剩”（Capabilities Overhang）的概念，即现有技术能力远超实际应用水平。Altman 承认这种落差感比以往任何时候都强烈，尽管技术发展极快，但企业的吸收速度却显得缓慢。他建议企业不仅要解决数据安全问题，更要转变观念：不要把 AI 仅仅当作工具，而要视为“队友”（Teammate）。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: and then you know you talk about this notion of like one of the things that I find is a huge dichotomy is there's so much advancement that's happening in science and in um in all the different areas that we'll talk about you know Kevin Wheel is going to be here later today um and then on the other hand the kind of challenges that organizations struggle with to just get the basics up and running with everyone there's a capabilities overhang where you've got and by the way this is a new concept when Microsoft Word came out people used 2% of the capability back then right and so when you start thinking about this what you know um how do we make sure that we actually increase the absorption rate like you've got CIOS and CISOs over here what advice would you give them on increasing the absorption rate within their organization for for AI

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 然后，你知道，你谈到了这个概念，我发现一个巨大的二分法（dichotomy），就是科学和各个不同领域都在发生巨大的进步——我们之后会谈到这些，Kevin Wheel 今天晚些时候也会来——但另一方面，组织在让每个人运行基础功能时却面临着挑战。这存在一种“能力过剩”（capabilities overhang），顺便说一句，这是一个新概念，就像 Microsoft Word 刚出来时，人们只用了当时 2% 的功能，对吧？所以当你开始思考这个问题，你知道...我们如何确保切实提高吸收率？比如这里有很多 CIO 和 CISO，关于提高组织内部对 AI 的吸收率，你会给他们什么建议？

[原文] [Sam Altman]: yeah you said a bunch of interesting stuff there the the capability overhang feels to me like the biggest it has ever felt i used to say like a few months ago maybe I would have said it feels bigger than any time except right when CHBT right before CHBT launched it now feels even bigger than that even though people are using AI for a lot of stuff

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 是的，你刚才说了很多有趣的东西。“能力过剩”给我的感觉是前所未有的巨大。我以前常说，大概几个月前，也许我会说，这种感觉比除了 ChatGPT 发布前夕之外的任何时候都要强烈。现在感觉甚至比那时还要大，尽管人们已经在使用 AI 做很多事情。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um the fact that AI can make small but increasingly big scientific discoveries the fact that AI can write full pieces of software the fact that soon AI can do more generalized knowledge work um those are all huge huge things like we have always said that you know we're going to automate research use that to be able to automate the economy use that to be able to deliver incredible new value to people and share all these benefits and this whole new technological world uh and we always said that as a sort of like abstract sometime in the future thing and yet now AI is doing research and AI is able to do huge amounts of economic work and this as you said has happened many times in the past but living through it definitely feels like huh this is not quite how it seems like it should go the the diffusion the absorption is so slow

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 嗯，AI 能够做出微小但日益重大的科学发现，AI 能够编写完整的软件，AI 很快就能做更通用的知识工作...这些都是极其巨大的事情。就像我们一直说的，你知道，我们将自动化研究，利用它来自动化经济，利用它为人们提供难以置信的新价值，并分享所有这些利益和这个全新的技术世界。我们以前总是把这说成是一种抽象的、未来某个时候的事情。然而现在，AI 正在做研究，AI 能够承担大量的经济工作。正如你所说，这在过去发生过很多次，但亲身经历这一切确实让人感觉：“嗯，这似乎不完全像它应该发展的样子。”这种扩散...吸收速度太慢了。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um is it slower than you thought it would be yes but I think I was just naive and didn't think about it that hard and in retrospect and looking at the history it shouldn't be surprising it feels fast in some ways uh relative to other things like you know CHBT grew crazily quickly uh relative to any other piece of software before um codeex is growing extremely quickly i expect the general purpose computer used knowledge work to grow quickly and yet looking at what's capable looking at what's possible it does feel sort of surprisingly slow

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 比我想象的要慢吗？是的，但我认为我当时只是太天真了，没有仔细思考。回过头来看历史，这并不令人惊讶。在某些方面它感觉很快，相对于其他事物而言，比如你知道 ChatGPT 的增长速度相对于以前任何软件都快得疯狂，Codex 的增长也非常快。我预计通用计算机使用的知识工作也会快速增长。然而，看看它的能力，看看它的可能性，确实感觉出奇地慢。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: uh in terms of advice figuring out how to set up enterprises such that they can quickly absorb these new tools and not have a year or multiple years of how are we going to think about the sort of data access and security questions that are currently blocking people even at the level today of adopting things like codecs that feels very important and I don't want to make a too dramatic of a prediction but I think that companies that are not set up to be able to adopt let's call them AI co-workers very quickly um will be at a huge disadvantage and it is going to take a lot of work and some risk to be able to adopt

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 至于建议，弄清楚如何建立企业架构，以便能够快速吸收这些新工具，而不是花一年或多年去思考“我们该如何处理数据访问和安全问题”——这些问题目前甚至阻碍了人们采用像 Codex 这样水平的工具——这感觉非常重要。我不想做一个过于戏剧化的预测，但我认为那些没有准备好能够非常快速地采用——让我们称之为“AI 同事”——的公司，将处于巨大的劣势。要做到这一点需要大量的工作和承担一定的风险。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: You know one of the big insights we had when we were using codeex was for the first two or three months we kept thinking it was going to be this kind of amazing tool and then there was this light bulb that went off with actually one of your four deployed engineers and they said you know you folks are thinking about this wrong because you have to think about it like a teammate rather than a tool um and that I think that that level of skuorphic design I don't think people have fully groed that when it comes to this because it's still a very transactional tool in most people's minds it the Codex app is the first time to me it has truly felt like interacting with a teammate yeah

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 你知道，我们在使用 Codex 时得到的一个重要见解是，在前两三个月里，我们一直以为它会是某种神奇的工具，然后突然灵光一现——实际上是你们的一位外派工程师说的——他们说：“你们的想法错了，因为你们必须把它看作是队友，而不是工具。”我认为这种程度的拟物化设计（skeuomorphic design），我不认为人们在这个问题上已经完全领悟了，因为在大多数人心中它仍然是一个非常交易性的工具。Codex 应用程序对我来说是第一次真正感觉像是在与队友互动。是的。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um it and I I think like one of the lessons there is even if you have amazing technology which the models got I think 52 was the model that got super good but even once you get there there's still so much value in how you package it how you how you have users interact with it how easy you can make it but this it really does to me now feel in a way that talking to chatbt has always clearly felt like a tool that I am like working with a collaborator now right right and that seems very much like the shape of things to come

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 我认为其中的一个教训是，即使你拥有惊人的技术——我认为模型达到了 52（注：可能指特定版本号或内部代号）是那个变得超级好的模型版本，但即使你达到了那个水平，通过如何打包它、如何让用户与之交互、你能让它变得多简单，仍然可以创造巨大的价值。但这现在对我来说真的感觉——在某种程度上，与 ChatGPT 对话总是明显感觉像是在用一个工具——我现在像是在与一位合作者一起工作。对，对。这看起来非常像未来的样子。

章节 6：基础设施需求与开源战略

📝 本节摘要：

Jeetu 提出基础设施和电力制约的问题。Altman 坚信 AI 需求将持续加速增长，虽然模型效率会提高，但“杰文斯悖论”效应会导致总需求激增。他将 AI 需求类比为电力需求，认为只要价格合理，需求将是无限的。关于开源，Altman 承认美国在开源方面可能落后，并希望在这方面做得更多，尤其是在支持本地运行的私有模型方面，这对于未来的隐私和控制至关重要。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: okay so let's talk about there's a couple of topics I want to make sure I hit with you on infrastructure uh you've actually spent an enormous amount of time even on the power side of the house talk to us about what happens with um in general um the constraints that we have around power constraints we have on infrastructure how are you thinking about it you're clearly putting enough money behind it i guess so

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 好的，我们来谈谈...有几个关于基础设施的话题我想确保和你探讨一下。你实际上甚至在电力方面也投入了大量时间。跟我们谈谈总体情况，我们在电力方面的制约，我们在基础设施方面的制约，你是怎么考虑的？我想你显然在背后投入了足够的资金。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um all the evidence we see right now is that AI models will continue to get much more capable and also that they will get much less expensive and use many fewer resources per task and all of the history we've seen of every time that happens is people want to use them much much more so we are planning for a world where AI usage grows at an accelerated pace each year

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 嗯，我们目前看到的所有证据都表明，AI 模型将继续变得更加强大，同时也将在每个任务上变得更便宜，消耗更少的资源。而且我们所见证的每一次历史都表明，每当这种情况发生时，人们就会想要更多更多地使用它们。所以我们正在为一个 AI 使用量每年都在加速增长的世界做规划。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: do you think people are underestimating the capacity that's going to be needed even now after everything that's being built out like right now they're saying like $5 trillion will be spent in this over the course of the Yeah maybe if that really gets spent quickly uh that will be enough and I and I think it's also possible that along the way we have some supply gluts temporarily

[译文] [Sam Altman]: （Jeetu: 你认为人们低估了所需的产能吗？即使是现在，在所有设施都在建设之后？比如现在他们说在此过程中将投入 5 万亿美元...）是的，也许如果这笔钱真的很快花出去，那可能会够。我认为在此过程中我们也可能会暂时出现供应过剩。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um but over a period of decades it seems certain to me that the world is going to need a lot more tokens even though the and we'll make you know each token way more efficient you'll all have a device in your pocket running super powerful models off of a battery and what but you know there will still be this drive for more and more and more um I think the world has come to realize this and capitalism is doing its thing and supply chains are reconfiguring uh policy is changing and we are going to build an incredible amount of infrastructure now is it enough

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 但在几十年的时间里，我很确定世界将需要多得多的 Token，即使我们将...你知道，我们会让每个 Token 的效率大大提高，你们所有人口袋里的设备都将靠电池运行超级强大的模型等等，但你知道，仍然会有这种追求更多、更多、更多的动力。我认为世界已经意识到了这一点，资本主义正在发挥作用，供应链正在重构，政策正在改变，我们将建设数量惊人的基础设施。这够吗？

[原文] [Sam Altman]: uh people always talk about the total market demand for AI it feels to me something like the market demand for electricity or energy you can't you can't talk about that as a general thing you can say how much demand there will be at different price levels um and in this case you can say at different price levels for different quality like how smart it is or how fast it is or everything like things like that um but if we continue to make AI really capable and really cheap there will be a ton of demand at some price if it's more expensive there will be uh you know less demand but I would like the world to just get to use a ton of it

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 人们总是谈论 AI 的总市场需求，这感觉对我来说就像电力或能源的市场需求。你不能笼统地谈论它，你可以说在不同价格水平下会有多少需求。在这个例子中，你可以说在不同价格水平下对应不同质量的需求，比如它有多聪明、多快或其他类似的指标。但是，如果我们继续让 AI 真正强大且真正便宜，在某个价格点上将会有巨大的需求。如果它比较贵，需求就会少一些。但我希望世界能够大量使用它。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: uh we're in this capability over now as we mentioned where people are like oh you know can use it for chat or maybe some people understand you can use it for code i think this will just be like how we do stuff how companies run how scientific discovery happens how we use most software personally in our lives and making a lot of it if we can have it at a reasonable price seems like a very good bet

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 我们现在正处于这种“能力过剩”阶段，正如我们提到的，人们觉得“哦，你知道可以用它聊天”，或者也许有些人明白可以用它写代码。我认为这将仅仅变成我们做事的方式、公司运作的方式、科学发现发生的方式，以及我们在生活中个人使用大多数软件的方式。如果我们能以合理的价格提供它，大量制造它似乎是一个非常好的赌注。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: do you worry about um the fact that the US has not had as much of a lead on the open source side talk to us a little bit about that like I do worry about that um yeah I think we should we should do more yes uh so what's what's stopping you from doing it focus and time but I think we need to solve that somehow and so just play this out in your simulator for a second like if if we if we don't have um a substantial open source presence and of course China does versus if we do how does a world shape differently

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 你是否担心美国在开源方面没有那么多领先优势？跟我们谈谈这点，比如...（Sam: 我确实担心这个。是的，我认为我们应该，我们应该做得更多，是的。）那是什么阻止了你们这样做？（Sam: 专注力和时间，但我认为我们需要以某种方式解决这个问题。）那么在你的模拟器里推演一下，如果我们没有实质性的开源存在——当然中国有——与如果我们有相比，世界会有什么不同？

[原文] [Sam Altman]: to to be clear I think it's most important that we lead on frontier models and I expect those to be accessed via APIs and other products so I it would be okay but not great if we didn't also have the open source lead um People want their own models people want control of their own models uh people want to run models locally especially if you think about a world where you have a model that is going to see your whole life you're going to have a new kind of device that's sort of always on and kind of keeping track of everything and adds huge value to you i at least would really like that running on inference eye control [sic]

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 要明确的是，我认为最重要的是我们在前沿模型上领先，我预计这些模型将通过 API 和其他产品访问。所以，如果我们没有开源领先地位，那也没关系，但也并不太好。人们想要他们自己的模型，人们想要控制他们自己的模型，人们想要在本地运行模型。特别是如果你设想这样一个世界：你有一个模型能看到你的整个人生，你将拥有一种新型设备，它某种程度上始终在线，记录一切并为你增加巨大价值。至少我会非常希望它运行在我控制的推理端上（注：原文 inference eye control 应为 inference I control）。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um and and so I think people are going to need this uh you know again if we get behind obviously it's not the end of the world but I would really like us to lead there

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 所以我认为人们会需要这个。你知道，再说一次，如果我们落后了，显然不是世界末日，但我真的希望我们在那里也能领先。

章节 7：商业模式演变与未来展望

📝 本节摘要：

在最后一部分，Jeetu 询问了 OpenAI 商业模式的演变。Altman 确认了订阅制（包括个人和企业）的巨大成功，同时也提到了广告和“AI 云订阅”的潜力。更进一步，他设想了通过投资科学发现（如治愈疾病）来获取回报的新模式。最后，Altman 预测年底前模型能力可能会有主观上“10倍”的提升，尽管宏观环境可能存在阻力，但技术进步的顺风依然强劲。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: and um if if you were to fast forward back and start thinking because one of the things that has been I don't even know how you folks have done it within the compression of time that you've done it in because there must have been moments where you decide decided that we're going to go we're going to go full stack and we're going to now start building our own inference ships and we're going to start making sure that we have data center buildouts that are happening and it has to have been a conscious decision when you started actually going beyond the core that you had initially started with

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 那么，如果你快进后再回想一下，开始思考...因为有一件事一直是——我甚至不知道你们是如何在如此压缩的时间内做到的——因为肯定有一些时刻你们决定：“我们要全力以赴，我们要进行全栈开发，我们要开始制造自己的推理芯片（inference chips），我们要开始确保我们有正在进行的数据中心建设...”这正在发生，当你们开始真正超越最初的核心业务时，这肯定是一个有意识的决定。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: um talk about the business model that you you have today and how does that evolve and change over time i mean the obvious ones are of course advertising is a huge unlock um when that happens but talk about the business model in general like what are you happy with the conversion rates of free to paid are you happy with the um the the take rate that people are using this system with um and then what would you like to see more of

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 谈谈你们今天的商业模式，以及它将如何随着时间演变和改变？我的意思是，显而易见的是广告当然是一个巨大的解锁——当它发生时——但谈谈总体的商业模式，比如你对免费到付费的转化率满意吗？你对人们使用该系统的接受率满意吗？然后你希望看到更多什么？

[原文] [Sam Altman]: so we have kind of two large products and now we have some others that are coming up we have chatbt and our API business um and now we have codecs which looks like it's going to get very big uh and a few other things the and in the future we'll have consumer devices and robots and all sorts of other parts of this too

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 我们目前有两大产品，现在还有一些其他的即将推出。我们有 ChatGPT 和我们的 API 业务，现在我们有了 Codex，它看起来会变得非常大，还有其他一些东西。在未来，我们还将有消费级设备、机器人以及这方面的各种其他部分。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: uh people do seem very willing to pay for AI as a subscription service uh not everybody but a lot of people are more than we thought would um businesses of course are willing to pay for things like chach enterprise but even consumers you've reconditioned the consumers quite a bit like consumers I mean we have I don't know the exact number off the top of my head but you know many many tens of millions of consumers paying a subscription fee yeah uh and that was a surprise to me to be honest a happy one

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 人们似乎非常愿意为 AI 订阅服务付费，虽然不是每个人，但有很多人...比我们要多。企业当然愿意为像 ChatGPT Enterprise 这样的东西付费，但即使是消费者——（Jeetu: 你相当程度上重新调教了消费者，比如消费者...）我的意思是，我们有...我现在脑子里没有确切的数字，但你知道，有数千万消费者在支付订阅费。是的。说实话这对我来说是个惊喜，一个快乐的惊喜。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um so that I think can go further and as we add things like codeex people are willing to pay much much more there um advertising for mass scale consumer businesses does seem like a good model uh although I think we'll have to be very careful in how we do that

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 所以我认为这可以走得更远，随着我们加入像 Codex 这样的东西，人们愿意在那里付更多钱。对于大规模消费者业务来说，广告似乎确实是一个好的模式，尽管我认为我们在做这件事时必须非常小心。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: uh and then businesses increasingly want something like an AI cloud subscription where they're like I want to partner with an AI company i want you to like handle security and context linking and access and I want to be able to run lots of agents on it i want like a general purpose platform there i want some agents from you some agents from other people i may even want to run other people's models i want a Chach enterprise license i want a ton of API access uh you know things like that so I think there will be a a model there as well

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 然后企业越来越想要某种像“AI 云订阅”的东西，他们会说：“我想与一家 AI 公司合作，我想让你们处理安全性、上下文链接和访问权限，我想能在上面运行很多代理，我想要一个通用平台，我想要一些来自你们的代理，一些来自其他人的代理，我甚至可能想运行其他人的模型。我想要 ChatGPT Enterprise 许可，我想要大量的 API 访问权限...”你知道，诸如此类。所以我认为那里也会有一个模式。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: and and if you were to if you were to think of um you've had an interesting model that you've talked about which is participating in the upside on scientific discovery as well um like if if you think about the the most mature ones clearly subscription is very mature clearly advertising is very mature at this point in time it's quite clear that you're going to participate in both of those and then and then you'll have other ones that keep keep coming out

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 另外如果你考虑到...你曾谈过一个有趣的模式，就是参与科学发现的红利...比如如果你考虑最成熟的模式，显然订阅非常成熟，广告也非常成熟，在这个时间点很清楚你们将参与这两者，然后你们会有其他模式不断涌现。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: yeah to to be very clear we don't want to take a share of people that are just like paying us for the API and making you know discoveries like that's great and that's theirs uh I can imagine though that like if there is a future where we can spend billions of dollars on inference and cure an important disease uh we may explore partnerships there where we pay for that cost in partnership with the drug company and then kind of get some royalty on it

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 是的，要非常明确的是，我们不想从那些仅仅是为了 API 付费并做出发现的人那里分一杯羹，那很好，那是属于他们的。但我可以想象，如果未来我们可以花费数十亿美元用于推理并治愈一种重要疾病，我们可能会探索在那里的合作伙伴关系，我们与制药公司合作支付该成本，然后获得某种特许权使用费。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: this is not something we're doing now but I think the frontier of scientific discovery with AI will require so much capital that maybe we think of ourselves as an investor in some of those cases

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 这不是我们现在正在做的事情，但我认为 AI 科学发现的前沿将需要如此多的资本，也许在某些情况下我们会把自己视为投资者。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: and is is our imagination of the things that can be done do you find yourself struggling with like how far exponentially you can think about what's going on as well or I you're a pretty big thinker but um it it seems like there's new ideas emerging all the time like where where do you think the imagination shortages right now with u with the way that these technologies are evolving

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 关于能做的事情的想象力，你是否发现自己也在努力思考这种指数级发展能走多远？你是一个思想很宏大的人，但似乎总有新想法涌现。你认为随着这些技术的发展，现在的想象力短板在哪里？

[原文] [Sam Altman]: um I can imagine like billions of humanoid robots building more data centers and mining for material and building more power plants and all of that um I can imagine just the economy growing at an unprecedented rate as there's all sorts of incredible new services and scientific discoveries happening um I can imagine the Bonoyman probes launching and then beyond that I got no idea that seems like a good start

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 我可以想象数十亿人形机器人建造更多的数据中心，开采材料，建造更多的发电厂等等。我可以想象经济以前所未有的速度增长，因为各种令人难以置信的新服务和科学发现正在发生。我可以想象冯·诺依曼探测器（Von Neumann probes）的发射，而在那之后我就不知道了。（Jeetu: 那看起来是个好的开始。）

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: um macro headwinds tailwinds what do you what do you feel like are things that you you really worry about capitalizing on that are tailwinds uh because you have a window within which if you don't then you can actually lose that tailwind and then what are the headwinds that you worry about

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 关于宏观的逆风和顺风，你觉得你真正担心要抓住的顺风是什么？因为你只有一个窗口期，如果不抓住就可能会失去那个顺风。那你担心的逆风是什么？

[原文] [Sam Altman]: the the tailwind is the model there's we already have this capability overhang and the models are going to get so much better quickly like I have we've been trying to figure out how we communicate about what we think is happening that does not seem like hype or um you know crazy but the models are just going to get very very good this year and that will that is a tailwind that I think we can build incredible things with

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 顺风是模型。我们已经有了这种能力过剩，而且模型将会非常快地变得更好。就像我...我们一直在试图弄清楚如何传达我们认为正在发生的事情，而不显得像是在炒作或...你知道，疯狂。但模型今年真的会变得非常非常好，那是一个顺风，我认为我们可以用它构建不可思议的东西。

[原文] [Sam Altman]: headwind wind uh yeah probably some sort of like global destabilization mega supply chain disruption something like that

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 逆风...嗯，可能是某种全球不稳定、大型供应链中断之类的。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: and and on the on the on the tailwind side on the models getting infinitely better do you think in 26 we see a 10x improvement a 100x improvement a 5x improvement what do you mean by like a what is a 10x improvement like like things that you can problems you can solve that you you were

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 在顺风方面，关于模型变得无限好，你认为在 26 年我们会看到 10 倍的提升，100 倍的提升，还是 5 倍的提升？（Sam: 你说的 10 倍提升是指什么？）（Jeetu: 比如你能解决的问题...）

[原文] [Sam Altman]: Yeah I would bet it subjectively feels something like 10x the end of this year like that's a I don't know how to like put a exact metric on that y but that feels reasonable

[译文] [Sam Altman]: 是的，我敢打赌，到今年年底，主观感觉上会有大约 10 倍的提升。就像...我不知道如何给出一个确切的指标，但这感觉是合理的。

[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: any question that I didn't ask that I should have asked that was a lot no I feel like we covered a lot of ground you're going to come back again come back here again yeah I'd love if you invite me i will sam Alton thank you thanks so much thank you

[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 有什么我没问但应该问的问题吗？（Sam: 那是很多内容了。不，我觉得我们涵盖了很多领域。）你会再回来的，再回到这里。（Sam: 是的，我很乐意，如果你邀请我，我会的。）Sam Altman，谢谢你。非常感谢。谢谢。