Silicon & AI | Lip-Bu Tan, CEO, Intel & Jeetu Patel
### 章节 1:临危受命与英特尔的双重战略 📝 **本节摘要**: > 在访谈的开篇,主持人Jeetu Patel表达了对Lip-Bu Tan的高度敬意,并称英特尔为“国宝级”企业。Lip-Bu Tan回顾了自己接手英特尔高层职位的决策过程——尽管朋友因任务艰巨而劝阻,但他出于对这家标志性公司及...
Category: Podcasts📝 本节摘要:
在访谈的开篇,主持人Jeetu Patel表达了对Lip-Bu Tan的高度敬意,并称英特尔为“国宝级”企业。Lip-Bu Tan回顾了自己接手英特尔高层职位的决策过程——尽管朋友因任务艰巨而劝阻,但他出于对这家标志性公司及其对美国半导体产业重要性的考量,在获得家人支持后毅然上任。他将过去10个月的经历形容为“在地图之外行军”(marching off the map),意指充满未知挑战。他强调了英特尔当前的双重战略结构:平衡内部产品研发与极具战略意义的代工业务(Foundry),并确认代工业务将致力于服务外部客户。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: you have a very unique record in my life do you know what that is the speed at which I have developed a friendship with you i don't think I've developed with anyone else and it's not a function of me i think it's a function of just how good you are at uh doing the kind of amount of things that you do uh on a regular basis but um thank you for coming here
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 在我的人生中,你创下了一个非常独特的记录,你知道是什么吗?那就是我和你建立友谊的速度。我不认为我和其他任何人有过这样的经历。这不在于我,而在于你在日常处理大量事务方面是多么出色。无论如何,谢谢你的到来。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: well thank you for inviting um tell us a little bit about Intel is a national treasure intel has gone through some tough times um you are bringing it back again to life but there's so much that needs to get done walk us through the current state of Intel where do you think it is where do you think it should go how should people think about it
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 谢谢邀请。给我们讲讲英特尔吧,它是国宝级的企业。英特尔经历了一些艰难时期,你正在让它起死回生,但还有很多事情要做。请带我们了解一下英特尔的现状,你认为它处于什么位置?应该往哪里发展?人们应该如何看待它?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: yes I think first of all I joined the board for two years and learn some things going on a lot of good friend of mine from Intel and uh it took me a while to decide to take this role and they say you know that's not easy a lot of My friend told me don't do it and you have a great reputation you know in the venture investment that is you know you you love it and why to take on this one but finally I decided you know this is iconic company is very important for the industry and also for United States so I finally convinced my wife let me do it one more,
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 是的,首先,我加入董事会两年了,了解了一些情况,也有很多来自英特尔的好朋友。我花了一段时间才决定接受这个角色。他们说,你知道这不容易,我的很多朋友告诉我不要做,你在风险投资领域声誉卓著,你也热爱这一行,为什么要接这个烫手山芋?但最终我决定,这是一家标志性的公司,对整个行业乃至美国都非常重要,所以我终于说服了我的妻子,让我再做一次。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and so after cadence and he support me to do it one more time and just to update I think I just passed uh 10 months coming to 11 months and uh you know I kind of call it marching off the map so something that uh some of the surprises I don't even know you know uh start you have to kind of reacting at the real time basis and learn from it so in some way I think it's good to have and then just update and uh we have a very complex company you have a foundry that's strategically very important and then the other part is the product and then um you know so clearly you need to balance the two
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 在Cadence之后,支持我再做一次。更新一下近况,我想我刚过了10个月,快11个月了。我把这称为“在地图之外行军”(marching off the map),也就是说有些意外是我根本不知道的,你必须实时做出反应并从中学习。某种程度上,我认为这很好。简单更新一下,我们有一家非常复杂的公司,你有一个在战略上非常重要的代工业务(Foundry),另一部分是产品业务,显然你需要平衡这两者。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: and do you believe your foundry business becomes um a general purpose foundry that's outside of just your products
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 那么你是否认为你们的代工业务会成为一个通用的代工服务,而不仅仅是服务于你们自己的产品?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: yes and so that's the intent,
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 是的,这就是我们的意图。
📝 本节摘要:
在本节中,Lip-Bu Tan 详细阐述了英特尔代工业务(Foundry)的运营转型。他提到通过邀请行业伙伴(如 PDF Solutions 和 KLA)协助,成功将 18A 制程的良率每月提升 7-8%。他还公布了 14A 制程的路线图,计划于 2028 年进行风险试产,2029 年量产。Tan 强调,做代工不仅需要技术,更需要完整的 IP 生态系统(特别是低功耗 IP)和极其严苛的服务文化——他将其形容为“一种需要不断磨砺的业务”(business of grinding)。赢得客户信任是一个循序渐进的过程,需要通过实际的良率数据和交付能力来逐步证明。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and uh we we have the 18A and I'm uh when I took over the year is quite poor and so I really get all my friends to help from PDF solution to KLA in the equipment to make sure that we have that seven to 8% yield improvement per month
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 我们有 18A 制程,当我接手那一年时,情况相当糟糕。所以我真的请来了所有的朋友帮忙,从 PDF Solutions 到做设备的 KLA,以确保我们能实现每月 7% 到 8% 的良率提升。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: 8% yield improvement per month
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 每月 8% 的良率提升?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: that's right and that will be the best practice and it took me a while finally I now I seeing seven or eight% yield per month so in a way it's very helpful that you open up the kimono and then let people come and help you
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 没错,这将是最佳实践。我花了一段时间,终于现在能看到每月 7% 或 8% 的良率提升了。所以从某种程度上说,敞开心扉(open up the kimono),让人们进来帮助你是非常有益的。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and then so so I think one is 18A we just announced the pental And then uh I can really count on my fab to produce that and then uh interesting enough couple of customer are knocking on my door now say hey seem like your 18A is doing well we want to be part of that so I think we are delighted to see the customer want to see that
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 所以我认为第一点是 18A,我们刚刚发布了 Panther Lake(注:此处原文疑似口误说成 pental,结合语境应指 Panther Lake 处理器相关进展)。我可以真正依靠我的晶圆厂来生产它。有趣的是,有几个客户现在正在敲我的门,说“嘿,看起来你们的 18A 做得不错,我们要参与进来”。所以我认为我们很高兴看到客户有这样的意愿。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: but we are laser focused on the 14A and that will be you know is very important is 1.4 for you know and this is the most advanced and uh we're going to be in the risk production 2028 and then we'll be in volume production 29
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 但我们正全神贯注于 14A,那将是非常重要的,也就是 1.4 纳米(注:14A 对应 1.4nm 级工艺),这是最先进的。我们将于 2028 年进行风险试产(risk production),然后在 2029 年进入量产。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and uh like any foundry I know I learned a lot and uh you need to have not only the yield improvement you need to have the variation so they're more predictable and you also need to have the final uh product that what is the yield look like and the the it spin and all the detail
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 就像任何代工厂一样,我知道我学到了很多。你不仅需要良率提升,还需要控制变异性(variation),这样它们才更可预测;你还需要知道最终产品的良率是什么样子的,以及改版(spin)和所有的细节。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and second part you need to have all the IP available you know if you want to have mobile customer you got to have all the low low power IP to have otherwise you can't serve the customer so there something is missing in the past so I really put something in place and then so that we can have both and then serving the customer
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 第二部分是你需要拥有所有可用的 IP。你知道,如果你想拥有移动端客户,你就必须拥有所有低功耗 IP,否则你就无法服务客户。这是过去缺失的东西,所以我真的把这些落实到位,这样我们就能两者兼备,服务客户。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: good news is couple of customer are very excited you know uh 0.5 PDK this month we will have that and the customer can use a has chipped to work on us and so I think good news is a couple of customer are engaging heavily and we're looking forward to serve them hopefully second half of this year I will see the volume commitment from the customer which product they want to have and I can serve them
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 好消息是几个客户非常兴奋。你知道,这个月我们将发布 0.5 版本的 PDK(工艺设计套件),客户可以用它来设计芯片并与我们合作。所以好消息是有几个客户正在深度接触,我们期待着为他们服务。希望在今年下半年,我会看到客户的产量承诺,他们想要什么产品,我也能服务他们。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: on second half you'll see the uh the volume commitments on the foundry or on on your core products on the customer on the products
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 下半年你会看到产量承诺,是关于代工业务的,还是关于你们核心产品的?是关于客户产品的吗?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: so in the way they need to let me know what products and what volume they need Got it then I can and know one thing to people will see because first of all I'm not not going to announce any customer uh this is confidentiality we need to support the customer
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 他们需要让我知道他们需要什么产品以及多大的量。明白了。还有一件事人们会看到,首先我不会宣布任何客户的名字,这是保密协议,我们需要支持客户。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and what we're going to do is when you see me starting to put money into uh subscript is a very important material and then secondly some of the capex equipment I need to have and scaling it that mean that I have real customer I've committed to it that's kind of discipline I have
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 我们要做的是,当你看到我开始把钱投入到基板(substrate)——这是一种非常重要的材料——以及其次投入到我需要的一些资本支出(capex)设备并进行扩充时,那就意味着我有真正的客户了,我已经做出了承诺。这就是我所拥有的纪律。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: so on the fab side to get to mass scale what does mass scale look like for you and what's the time frame that you feel like mass scale could happen where you could be a formidable fab for third party chips
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 那么在晶圆厂方面,要达到大规模量产,对你来说“大规模”是什么样子的?你觉得大概什么时间框架内可以实现大规模量产,从而成为第三方芯片的强大代工厂?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: yes so it's a very challenging to operate the two because one is on the product you have to drive innovation drive the product road map the other part is really a service business culture had to change and in some way I kind of tell my team this is a business of grinding
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 是的,运营这双重业务非常有挑战性。因为一方面在产品上,你必须推动创新,推动产品路线图;另一方面确实是服务业务,文化必须改变。在某种程度上,我告诉我的团队,这是一个需要不断磨砺的业务(business of grinding)。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: you know it's not like you have good innovation good technology you would be people will come you have to grind until something that you prove the yield they can count on you to make the production and then their whole revenue profit depend on it that's a lot of trust and responsibility and we have to earn it
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 你知道,这不像你有了好的创新、好的技术,人们就会自动找上门来。你必须不断打磨,直到你证明了良率,证明他们可以依靠你进行生产,毕竟他们的全部收入和利润都取决于此。这是巨大的信任和责任,我们必须去赢得它。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: so I think those are the thing that uh scaling is important and that's why I always ask customer give me the c the biggest product that you have the most important product give me five 10% 20% 50% let me earn it and let earn your trust
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 所以我认为规模化很重要。这就是为什么我总是要求客户,把你最大的产品、最重要的产品给我,先给我 5%、10%、20%、50% 的量,让我去赢取它,让我去赢得你的信任。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and then many of them they I work with them you know when I was running cadence so they trust me so somewhere that I think back to your point trust is very important for AI so I think something that even more important in foundry is the customer trust
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 很多人我都曾与他们合作过,你知道我在管理 Cadence 的时候,所以他们信任我。回到你的观点,信任对 AI 来说很重要,但我认为在代工行业,更重要的是客户的信任。
📝 本节摘要:
随着话题深入技术细节,主持人探讨了制约AI增长的核心瓶颈。Lip-Bu Tan 指出,当前最大的挑战并非制造产能,而是存储(Memory),特别是HBM(高带宽内存)的极度短缺,预计到2028年之前都无法缓解。其次是算力需求的爆炸式增长,他引用朋友的观点称“摩尔定律”的翻倍周期已缩短至数月。最后,他强调了散热(Thermal)问题,随着高性能处理器功耗激增,传统的风冷已难以为继,液冷、微流体冷却和浸没式冷却将成为关键技术。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: now if you think about the constraints that that are there right now do you think that the energy constraint is uh with power cooling all of that is more severe or right now is manufacturing capacity which one limits growth first
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 如果你考虑一下目前的制约因素,你认为能源制约——包括电力、冷却所有这些——更严重,还是目前的制造产能更严重?哪一个会首先限制增长?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: i think in term of the AI the biggest challenge I think for a lot of my customer is memory uh memory actually there's no relief as far as I know when I talked to the you know only three key player two of them I talked to very frequently and then uh they told me the lipu there's no relief until 2028
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 我认为就 AI 而言,对我很多客户来说最大的挑战是存储(Memory)。实际上,据我所知存储短缺没有缓解。你也知道只有三家主要玩家,其中两家我经常交谈,他们告诉我:“Lip-Bu,直到 2028 年之前都不会有缓解。”
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: why is that because I think this whole AI is uh suck up a lot of memory you know the our our mutual friend Jensen tonight you don't talk to him you know clearly he need a lot of memory for his robing in in the next generation product and uh so I think it's very important to have that memory if anything going to slow down going to be the memory so that I think is one
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 为什么呢?因为我认为整个 AI 正在吸干大量的存储资源。你知道我们共同的朋友 Jensen(黄仁勋),虽然今晚你没和他谈,但很显然他的下一代产品(注:原文 "robing" 疑为 "Rubin" 或指代 roadmap)需要大量的内存。所以我认为拥有存储资源非常重要。如果有什么东西会拖慢发展速度,那将会是存储。这是第一点。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: secondly I think is clearly you know from the compute side you know I was very happy to hear that you know customer are all crying for more products and I didn't prepare the production enough to meet their requirement
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 第二点,我认为显然是算力方面。你知道,我很高兴听到客户都在哭喊着要更多的产品,但我没有准备足够的产能来满足他们的需求。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and so I think people start needing to find out that in application CPU actually is more useful in term of uh performance for all the you know compute requirement and in fact a friend of mine he mentioned that most law double used to be three to four years and now it's like three or four month so the increase of compute is increasing so much
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 所以我认为人们开始需要发现,在应用中,CPU 实际上在性能方面对所有的计算需求都更有用。事实上,我的一位朋友提到,摩尔定律(Moore's Law,原文误听为 most law)以前是三到四年翻一番,现在就像是三到四个月。所以算力的增长幅度太大了。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and right now my biggest challenge is focus on our production of supply chain make sure we can meet their requirement almost every CEO they call me up lippo can I have more I'm your friend I'm your customer the most important customer I want to have more of that so I think you know it's some somehow it's kind of encouraging for me to see that compute is become very important
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 目前我最大的挑战是专注于我们的供应链生产,确保我们能满足他们的需求。几乎每位 CEO 都给我打电话:“Lip-Bu,能不能多给我一点?我是你的朋友,我是你的客户,最重要的客户,我想要更多。”所以我觉得,从某种程度上说,看到算力变得如此重要对我来说是一种鼓舞。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and then the other part really important to me is beside memory uh beside the compute and then the other part is the thermal we just talked about the cooling technology
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 除了存储,除了算力,对我来说另一个真正重要的部分是散热(thermal),我们刚才谈到了冷却技术。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: so in term of some of the high performance processor either GPU or CPU you uh you sometime you have to guide the gigahertz down because your thermal issue and the power you know power management so those are the one that you want to find new way of cooling in term of uh you know liquid cooling air cooling is not cutting it now so liquid cooling microuid cooling emergent cooling so I think those become very important
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 对于一些高性能处理器,无论是 GPU 还是 CPU,有时你必须降低频率(gigahertz),因为散热问题和电源管理。所以你需要找到新的冷却方法。就目前而言,风冷已经不够用了,所以液冷、微流体冷却(microfluidic cooling,原文 microuid)、浸没式冷却(immersion cooling,原文 emergent)变得非常重要。
📝 本节摘要:
随着话题从单一硬件转向系统层面,Lip-Bu Tan 指出互连技术(Interconnect)正经历从铜到光(Optical)的关键转型,以满足对速度和低延迟的极致需求。他提出了“全栈优化”(Full Stack)的概念,认为要延续摩尔定律的效能,不能只看硅片,必须整合散热、互连和软件。在软件层面,他特别强调了集群管理(Cluster Management)的痛点——在数千个 GPU/CPU 组成的集群中,现有的工具(如 Kubernetes)往往难以定位深层故障。此外,他简要展望了物理 AI 之后的下一波浪潮:量子计算。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: the other part that also you mentioned I think something that Cisco have is really good is that interconnect
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 你提到的另一部分,我认为 Cisco 做得非常好的,就是互连技术(interconnect)。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: yes
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 是的。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: it's getting become very critical used to be more in the copper you know and uh like you know credto semiconductor and astera lab I invest in but now moving to optical now optical and so optical become very critical and so that's something that is a new wave because the speed and latency become very important
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 它变得非常关键。过去更多是铜互连,你知道,像我投资的 Credo Semiconductor 和 Astera Labs。但现在正在转向光互连(optical),光互连变得非常关键。这是新的一波浪潮,因为速度和延迟变得非常重要。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: so that another issue the part of the constraint is the software and then so if you really want to address some of this like the most law you need to really look at the whole full stack so not just the silicon and you need to the cooling and then you need to have the interconnect and then the other part is a software
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 所以那是另一个问题。制约因素的一部分是软件。如果你真的想解决像摩尔定律(Moore's Law,原文口误为 most law)这样的问题,你真的需要审视整个全栈(full stack),不仅仅是硅片,你需要看散热,需要看互连,另一部分就是软件。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: you know the open source I'm very strong believe in it and then of course the cool compatibility is very important and even more important right now is a clustered of GPU or CPU and And then you become the clustered manager the software
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 你知道,我非常坚信开源。当然,兼容性非常重要。而现在更重要的是 GPU 或 CPU 的集群(clustered),然后你需要集群管理软件。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and right now you know sometime you we have problem you don't even know where to look for it and now there's a lot of new startup coming coming to me said that will be area that we want to work on so that we know exactly how to solve some of this clustered uh issue that you're going to face
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 目前,你知道有时我们遇到问题,你甚至不知道去哪里找原因。现在有很多新的初创公司来找我,说那将是他们想要致力于的领域,这样我们就能确切知道如何解决你将面临的一些集群问题。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: uh kubernetes is great but you cannot find the real issue there so I think those are kind of interesting being a venture capitalist and running CEO of Intel It give me that kind of perspective of what are the new thing coming
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: Kubernetes 很棒,但在那里你找不到真正的问题所在。所以我认为,作为一名风险投资家并担任英特尔 CEO(注:此处应指在英特尔任职的高管经历),这给了我一种视角,让我看到有什么新事物正在到来,这很有趣。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and quantum computing is another big area coming up is around the corner and so something that is interesting to see after AI you know we talk about aentic AI the next big wave is physical AI the next thing going to be quantum so I think that's kind of exciting
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 量子计算是另一个即将到来的大领域,就在拐角处。所以有趣的是,在 AI 之后——我们谈论生成式 AI(Generative AI,原文口误为 aentic AI)——下一个大浪潮是物理 AI(Physical AI),再接下来将是量子计算。所以我认为这非常令人兴奋。
📝 本节摘要:
本节对话将视野拓宽至地缘政治与全球科技竞争。Lip-Bu Tan 对美国基础研究(Fundamental Research)的衰退及人才流向亚欧表示担忧。他坦承在开源领域,DeepSeek 等中国模型的出现是一个“警钟”,打破了人们对中国仅能做模型“蒸馏”的刻板印象。他分享了一个令人震惊的招聘经历:华为拥有数百名顶尖 CPU 架构师,即便在缺乏先进 EDA 工具和光刻机的情况下,仍能通过“穷人的方法”和极致的基础设施优化实现技术追赶甚至跨越。最后,他对比了中美在电力获取与监管审批上的速度差异,指出这已成为美国 AI 发展的潜在瓶颈。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: and so you you talked about open source and um um talk to us a little bit about like your um perspective on open source in the United States how important is it what needs to happen
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 你谈到了开源,能不能跟我们聊聊你对美国开源现状的看法?它有多重要?我们需要做些什么?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: yeah very good questions you know I'm very passionate uh about the education and uh you know I want involved with MIT CMEU and Berkeley and and others
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 是的,这是个非常好的问题。你知道我对教育非常有热情,我参与了麻省理工(MIT)、卡内基梅隆(CMU,原文误听为CMEU)和伯克利(Berkeley)等高校的事务。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: the key part is you know one thing that I'm worry a lot is the foundation fundamental research we're starting to not continue a lot of university they're pro the best professor being recruit out to Asia to Europe
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 关键在于,有一件事让我非常担心,那就是基础研究。我们开始难以为继,很多大学里最好的教授正被挖角到亚洲和欧洲。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and uh so I think the fundamental research some of the public company like Cisco and ourself we have some short-term midterm uh requirement you cannot invest into long-term 10 year 20 years from now and So that part to me is a outcry on term foundation uh research
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 考虑到基础研究,像思科和我们(英特尔)这样的上市公司,我们有短期和中期的需求,你无法投资于未来 10 年、20 年的长期项目。所以这部分对我来说,是对基础研究现状的一种疾呼。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: the other part is the open source i'm a big fan of open source and frankly speaking couple of people that good very knowledgeable people that told me libu we are behind China now and so that's something that we have to pay attention i think deepseek is just a a wakeup call
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 另一部分是开源,我是开源的忠实拥护者。坦率地说,有几位非常优秀、知识渊博的人告诉我:“Lip-Bu,我们现在落后于中国了。”所以这是我们必须注意的事情,我认为 DeepSeek 就是一个警钟。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: but don't you think like to some degree um some of the models that are emerging in China are just pure distillations of the models that are here and so at some point in time if all you're doing is distilling the models um then the moment like they u they can't really get that much farther ahead or you you don't think that's the case they'll actually figure out a way to start creating original
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 但你不认为在某种程度上,中国涌现的一些模型纯粹是这边(美国)模型的“蒸馏”(distillations)吗?如果在某个时间点,你所做的只是提炼模型,那么在那个时刻他们无法真正领先太多。或者你不这么认为?你觉得他们实际上会找到一种开始原创的方法?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: yeah very good question i thought that initially I thought that uh they will be falling behind because they don't have the access to the most advanced GPU from Nvidia most advanced uh processor from many different uh players
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 是的,很好的问题。我起初也是这么想的。我原以为他们会落后,因为他们无法获得来自英伟达的最先进 GPU,也无法获得来自许多不同厂商的最先进处理器。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: but you'll be surprised you know recently I was just um try to recruit recruit some of the top talent in CPU architect and I found out that Huawei have 100 CPU architect top notch i was shocked yeah
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 但你会感到惊讶的。最近我正试图招聘一些顶尖的 CPU 架构师人才,我发现华为拥有 100 名顶尖的 CPU 架构师。我很震惊,是的。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and so when I talked to them why are you going there and they said that even though we don't have access to the best tool like EDA tool from Caden and Synopsis but we have the poor man way to do it and we can do it
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 当我问他们“你们为什么要去那里?”时,他们说,尽管我们无法使用最好的工具——比如 Cadence 和 Synopsys 的 EDA 工具——但我们有“穷人的方法”(poor man's way)来做,而且我们能做成。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and I said what about ASML equipment that you guys don't have but I said that well we are quietly building on it and so to me is they are just shortly behind us and then if you're not careful they will just lip frog ahead of us
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 我又问,那你们没有的 ASML 设备怎么办?他们说:“嗯,我们正在悄悄地建造它。”所以对我来说,他们只是稍微落后于我们,如果你不小心,他们就会直接超越(leapfrog)我们。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: and what they've done is they've spent the calories on infrastructure optimization because they don't have the right chipset correct and so like if if they are at 7 nanometer and we are at 2 nanometer uh what they're offsetting that with and they have unlimited power yes and they've got engineering capacity correct that actually creates the caloric redirection towards making sure that you you drive a certain level of infrastructure optimization
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 他们所做的是将精力(calories)花在了基础设施优化上,因为他们没有合适的芯片组,对吧?所以,就像如果他们在 7 纳米,而我们在 2 纳米,他们用什么来弥补这一差距?他们有无限的电力,对,而且他们有工程能力,没错。这实际上创造了一种精力的重新导向,确保推动特定水平的基础设施优化。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: that's correct i think the one thing that we are behind is you know I think all the AI crowd you need a lot of power right and then if you look at US the regulatory approval and then it just take longer to get that in China if they decided to have it you know they quickly can get all the approval and get it done so that's something that we have to pay attention we may
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 没错。我认为有一件事我们落后了,你知道所有搞 AI 的人都需要大量的电力,对吧?如果你看看美国,监管审批,获得批准需要更长的时间。而在中国,如果他们决定要做,很快就能获得所有批准并完成建设。所以这是我们必须注意的事情。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: you're doing this within uh you're investing in companies What do you see open-source um development changing in the US materially or do you feel like it continues on the foundation model side where it's going to be largely closed source and not open wage open source models
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 你正在投资公司,你认为美国的开源开发会有实质性的改变吗?还是你觉得在基础模型方面,它将继续主要是闭源的,而不是开放权重的开源模型?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: good question you know some company they call it open open source and then when they become successful they become closed source close source and then so they block it out so I think we have to continue encouraging open source i think that's the best way of not repeating everybody's effort and then so that we can really drive more successful improvement and quicker
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 很好的问题。你知道有些公司声称是“开源”的,但当他们成功后,就变成了闭源,把它封锁起来。所以我认为我们要继续鼓励开源,我认为这是避免重复造轮子的最好方式,这样我们才能真正推动更成功、更快速的改进。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: but you almost need a business model where something else is able to go out and fund that yes because if if you go just with open source the training costs are so high that the economics don't work out whereas in China it's different because the government subsidizes a lot of that
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 但你几乎需要一种商业模式,让其他东西能够为此提供资金。是的,因为如果你只做开源,训练成本太高了,经济账算不过来。而在中国情况不同,因为政府提供了大量补贴。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: that's correct and so I think you know how do we handle that what's the game theory on our side what do we do i think you know a couple of my friend are putting a lot of effort uh in term of uh rebuilding that opensource community and even funding some of this uh the best AI research researcher to really do that they even form a new institute rather than just university to fund some of this program and I think I really encourage I jump on it because this is something that badly needed
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 没错。所以我在想我们该如何处理这个问题?我们这边的博弈论是什么?我们要怎么做?我知道我的几个朋友正在投入大量精力重建那个开源社区,甚至资助一些最好的 AI 研究人员真正去做这件事。他们甚至成立了一个新机构,而不仅仅是依靠大学来资助这些项目。我非常鼓励并积极参与其中,因为这是迫切需要的。
📝 本节摘要:
话题转向英特尔的技术未来。Lip-Bu Tan 确认英特尔将坚定投入 GPU 领域,并透露已聘请一位顶级首席架构师。他强调未来的计算不再是单一架构的天下,英特尔将走出 x86 的舒适区,积极拥抱 RISC-V 和 ARM 以适应不同的工作负载。在制造端,他指出先进封装(Advanced Packaging)已取代制程成为新的行业瓶颈,并介绍了英特尔在此领域的布局。最后,他以前瞻性的视角探讨了材料科学的突破,表示英特尔正在“加倍下注”玻璃基板(Glass Substrates),并探索人造金刚石和氮化镓等新材料,以应对 CMOS 技术“动力耗尽”的物理极限。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: the other part is on the foundry side you know it's very important to have a US manufacturing foundry that's why I decided to come in and double triple down it's a long-term business but we just have to really do that because the industry need that and the and the US need that
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 另一部分是在代工方面,你知道拥有一家美国的制造代工厂非常重要,这也是我决定加入并加倍、甚至三倍下注的原因。这是一个长期的生意,但我们要真正去做,因为行业需要它,美国也需要它。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: so I think overall not just the process also the advanced packaging and that become really become the bottleneck and something that we have to really continue to drive system wafer kind of packaging arrangement and that's why we are investing in some of that and then some of the new technology to drive the packaging so that we can really help enable the AI driver and then to to really take off
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 所以我认为总体而言,不仅仅是制程工艺,还有先进封装(advanced packaging),这真的已经成为了瓶颈。这是我们需要继续推动的,比如系统级晶圆(system wafer)类型的封装布局。这就是为什么我们投资于此,以及投资一些新的封装技术,这样我们才能真正帮助赋能 AI 驱动力,让它真正腾飞。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: does Intel build GPUs in the future
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 英特尔未来会制造 GPU 吗?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: yes and I just hired the the chief uh GPU architect and then uh so he's very good i'm very delighted he joined me and it takes some persuasions
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 是的,我刚刚聘请了一位首席 GPU 架构师。他非常出色,我很高兴他加入了我,这费了一番口舌去说服他。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and then I told him that not just CPU GPU is also very important different or different application workloads and so you have to really optimize so I'm not hang up with just Xeon 86 and also embrace uh risk 5 and ARM and you got to be more flexible
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 我告诉他,不仅仅是 CPU,GPU 对于不同的应用工作负载也非常重要,所以你必须真正进行优化。所以我并不执着于只做 x86(原文口误为 Xeon 86),我也拥抱 RISC-V 和 ARM。你必须更加灵活。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: you know key thing is more on the you know that it kind of more the software layer that you have to drive down from it's so I call it the software 2.0 is define the software you drive the hardware
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 关键在于更多是关于软件层,你必须从软件层向下驱动。所以我称之为“软件 2.0”(Software 2.0),即由软件定义来驱动硬件。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: so Intel is going to build CPUs they're going to build GPUs they're going to have their own foundry to build those CPUs and GPUs and you're going to have a foundry that's going to be made at scale available to other manufacturers and you will make sure that you partner with the other GPU providers
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 所以英特尔将制造 CPU,将制造 GPU,将拥有自己的代工厂来制造这些 CPU 和 GPU,并且你们将拥有一个能够大规模服务于其他制造商的代工厂,同时你们也会确保与其他 GPU 供应商合作。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: that's right and know some new material and know like the you know uh glass is a very good insulator mhm so we are double down glass and then the other part is artificial uh you know the you know diamond and that's another good you know glass
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 没错。还有一些新材料,比如玻璃(glass)是非常好的绝缘体,所以我们正在加倍下注玻璃基板。另一部分是人造金刚石(artificial diamond),那是另一种很好的材料。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: so I think we just go through the different chem chemical table yeah and find out what are the new material like you know gallium nitra is very good for RF and then switch area and so that interesting
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 所以我想我们就把化学周期表过一遍,找出有哪些新材料。比如你知道氮化镓(gallium nitride,原文口误为 gallium nitra)对于射频(RF)和开关领域非常好,这很有趣。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: so I think we had to look at different new material we have to look at seamos is a little bit run out of steam so you need to look at some of the new material and that's why it's very important for me is I had continue to have that curiosity so starting to look at some of this new thing think a bit short term midterm and longer term and how you going to make the impact to the industry
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 所以我认为我们必须着眼于各种新材料。我们看到 CMOS 有点动力耗尽了(run out of steam),所以你需要寻找新材料。这就是为什么对我来说,保持好奇心非常重要,开始关注这些新事物,思考短期、中期和长期的发展,以及你将如何对行业产生影响。
📝 本节摘要:
在访谈的尾声,主持人代表广大企业级观众(CIO、CISO等)向 Lip-Bu Tan 征询建议。Tan 告诫企业不要试图将 AI 简单地“打补丁”在陈旧的遗留系统上,而应从基础架构层面进行彻底重构。他引用了一位 MIT 教授的观点,指出尽管 AI 概念火热,但当前全球经济的生产力增长率实际上非常低,甚至接近 19 世纪的低点。因此,他建议领导者必须回归商业本质,关注“最终结果”(End Outcome)和“问责制”(Accountability),确保技术投资能带来可衡量的生产力提升和营收增长。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: so Lipu you've got um enterprise audiences over here you've got CIOS you've got chief information security officers there's 10 million people that are probably watching going to be watching this what advice would you have for people on how they should be thinking about AI and how they should be thinking about scaled infrastructure buildout what would you say to them
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: Lip-Bu,这里有企业级观众,有首席信息官(CIO),有首席信息安全官(CISO),可能有 1000 万人正在或将会观看这个节目。对于人们应该如何思考 AI,以及如何思考大规模基础设施建设,你有什么建议?你会对他们说什么?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: yeah it's a very good question so I think we all get excited and also a lot of pressure to adopt AI and then to the enterprise so I think it's very important to think about what is the problem you try to solve what is the outcome you want to look for
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 是的,这是一个非常好的问题。我认为我们都很兴奋,同时也面临着在企业中采用 AI 的巨大压力。所以我认为非常重要的一点是,要思考你试图解决什么问题?你想要寻求什么样的结果?
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: and then uh and also some of them I just like Intel we have a very legacy IT infrastructure I just recruited uh the the you know the best CIO that I I can find and I brought her on on board and I kind of told her that look look at I think it's a good time to look at the foundation what are the changes we need to make
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 然后,就像英特尔一样,我们拥有非常陈旧的 IT 基础设施。我刚刚招聘了我能找到的最好的 CIO,我把她请在这个位置上,我告诉她:“听着,我认为现在是审视基础架构的好时机,看看我们需要做出哪些改变。”
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: you don't just put on top of the old legacy it's not going to work and then you have to really un undo that and then em embrace some of the new uh AI tool you know pro function by function to really drive the augmentations
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 你不能只是把它(AI)叠加在旧的遗留系统之上,那是行不通的。你必须真正地拆解旧系统(undo that),然后逐个功能地拥抱一些新的 AI 工具,真正推动增强(augmentations)。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: but more important is what are the process that you're going to drive the matrix to success and then frankly speaking a friend of mine we're just talking actually is MIT professor I'm on the MIT u you know CEO advisory board and one just mentioned about if you look at all the AI the study that he study is that basic Basically the productivity of the global e economy is growing very small percentage
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 但更重要的是,你要通过什么流程来驱动指标走向成功?坦率地说,我的一位朋友——我们刚聊过,实际上他是 MIT 的教授,我也是 MIT CEO 顾问委员会的成员——他提到,如果你看看所有的 AI,他所做的研究显示,基本上全球经济的生产力增长比例非常小。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: so we still have to in adopt more you know broadly so that we can really see the productivity go up you know with aentic AI with agent and then rob
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 所以我们仍然需要更广泛地采用它,这样我们才能真正看到生产力随着代理型 AI(Agentic AI,原文误听为 aentic AI)和智能体(Agent)的出现而上升。
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: the lowest it's been in um you know compared to back in the 1800s and market raising it was very eloquent
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 这是自 19 世纪以来的最低点,Market Raising(注:此处疑为 Marc Andreessen 或类似人名的误听,指代某位对此有精辟论述的专家)对此表述得非常有力。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: you know I was shocked to see the productivity that he showed me the curve yeah I said wow I thought that would be much higher than that
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 你知道,当我看到他向我展示的生产力曲线时,我很震惊。是的,我说:“哇,我原以为会比这高得多。”
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: so I think that's something that we have to think about what is the end outcome that you want to have and then go back you know to foundation how do we drive that and then meanwhile is keep ourself you know accountability that able to really drive the productivity of the enterprise that you can measure you can present to your board hey by doing this I invest this new technology actually improve my productivity and improve my revenue growth
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 所以我认为这是我们必须思考的问题:你想要的最终结果(end outcome)是什么?然后回到基础层面,思考我们如何驱动它。同时,要保持自身的问责制(accountability),能够真正推动企业的生产力,并且是可衡量的。这样你就可以向董事会展示:“嘿,通过这样做,我投资的这项新技术实际上提高了我的生产力,并促进了我的收入增长。”
[原文] [Jeetu Patel]: you know boo intel is a national treasure but so are you thank you for being here thank you for inviting
[译文] [Jeetu Patel]: 你知道,英特尔是国宝,但你也是。谢谢你来到这里。
[原文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: thank you for inviting
[译文] [Lip-Bu Tan]: 谢谢邀请。