章节 1：历史回溯：工业革命与西方主导权的兴衰（1820-1950）

📝 本节摘要：

本章开篇，萨克斯教授首先简要驳斥了“美国在科技上仍主导中国”的观点，并预言非洲将是未来的重要增长极。随后，他将视角拉回历史，阐述了19世纪工业革命（特别是蒸汽机的商业化）如何成为全球力量对比的决定性转折点。利用安格斯·麦迪森（Angus Maddison）的数据，他指出1820年亚洲曾占据全球产出的60%，但随后的“百年国耻”、殖民主义及内战导致中印两国在1950年跌入谷底，全球产出份额降至18%。当时的西方学界（如贡纳尔·米达尔）普遍对亚洲持悲观宿命论看法。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: the idea that the United States still dominates China in technology I think is not correct in almost any sphere i actually think that Africa's best hope is a close partnership with China africa's share of the world economy which is 5% today by the end of the 21st century reaches 30% of world output what a different world that would be

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 认为美国在科技领域仍然主导中国的想法，我认为在几乎任何领域都是不正确的。实际上我认为非洲最好的希望是与中国建立紧密的伙伴关系。非洲在世界经济中的份额今天只有5%，但到21世纪末将达到世界产出的30%，那将是一个多么不同的世界。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: the 19th century was a decisive century in changing the world balance of power even the 19th century change had much longer antecedance but the 19th century was the century in which European power came to dominate Asia and Africa and by the end of the 19th century essentially almost all of Asia and Africa either formally or informally were under European imperial control

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 19世纪是改变世界力量平衡的决定性世纪，尽管19世纪的变革有着更长的前因，但19世纪是欧洲力量开始主导亚洲和非洲的世纪。到19世纪末，基本上几乎所有的亚洲和非洲地区，无论是在形式上还是非形式上，都处于欧洲帝国的控制之下。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: underlying that remarkable shift of global power was the industrialization of Europe the industrial revolution began in the middle of the 18th century both with uh advances in mechanization in many sectors but most importantly with the advent of the steam engine a great invention developed in China a thousand years ago but not commercialized uh in the same way and commercialized in Britain in the 18th century

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这一显著的全球权力转移背后的根本原因是欧洲的工业化。工业革命始于18世纪中叶，既包括许多部门机械化的进步，但最重要的是蒸汽机的出现。这是一项伟大的发明，虽然一千年前就在中国被开发出来，但没有以同样的方式实现商业化，而是在18世纪的英国实现了商业化。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and that single invention in my view was the most decisive change in the world because it created a measure of energy and power that was unparalleled in history and during the 19th century especially Britain but increasingly other European powers and then later in the 20th century the United States used the advantages of early industrialization to essentially uh control almost all of the world either through direct imperial control or through indirect measures of finance and econ economy

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 在我看来，这单一的发明是世界上最具决定性的变革，因为它创造了一种历史上无与伦比的能源和动力尺度。在19世纪，特别是英国，以及越来越多的其他欧洲强国，随后在20世纪是美国，利用早期工业化的优势，基本上控制了几乎整个世界，无论通过直接的帝国控制，还是通过金融和经济的间接手段。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and what this graph shows is a well-known data series created by the late macroeconomic historian Angus Madison of the Netherlands trying to estimate the share of world output in different regions of the world using a purchasing power parody system of measurement and in 1820 still Asia was 60% of the world output and about 60% of the world population

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这张图表展示的是由已故荷兰宏观经济历史学家安格斯·麦迪森（Angus Maddison）创建的一组著名数据系列，试图利用购买力平价（Purchasing Power Parity）的测量体系来估算世界不同地区的全球产出份额。在1820年，亚洲仍占世界产出的60%，以及世界人口的约60%。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: what it meant was that in 1820 the differences of per capita income in the world were not very large and that means that wherever the population was that was approximately the share of world output as well and Asia was still 60% or so of world output with China and India being the two giant economies of the world and still much larger than the European economies and the United States barely existed at that point it was a very small settlement on the eastern border of North America

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这意味着在1820年，世界上的人均收入差异并不大，也就是人口在哪里，那里的世界产出份额也就大致相当。亚洲当时仍占世界产出的60%左右，中国和印度是世界上的两大经济体，规模仍远大于欧洲经济体。而美国在当时几乎还不存在，它只是北美东部边界上一个非常小的定居点。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: but the green curve which is the Asia share of GDP look what happens to it over the period from 1820 to 1950 what China loosely calls the century of humiliation this is the period in which the western dominance became complete and in the two biggest countries of the world India became of course a colony of the British Empire and China became essentially dominated by Western powers starting with the first opium war in 1839 and then followed by the second opium war and by the Taiping Rebellion which by some measures was the largest civil war in world history with tens of millions of people perishing

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 但是看这条代表亚洲GDP份额的绿色曲线，看看它在1820年到1950年期间发生了什么，即中国通常所说的“百年国耻”。这是西方主导地位变得完全确立的时期。在世界上最大的两个国家中，印度当然成了大英帝国的殖民地，而中国基本上被西方列强所主导，始于1839年的第一次鸦片战争，紧接着是第二次鸦片战争，以及太平天国运动（Taiping Rebellion）。以某些标准衡量，太平天国运动是世界历史上规模最大的内战，导致数千万人丧生。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and by the end of the century China also facing the onslaught of the one industrialized nation of this region which was Japan which more or less successfully industrialized after 1868 so China and India fell into uh great disarray and into economic uh dependency and that continued throughout uh the first half of the 20th century in China of course because of revolution because of uh civil war because of Japanese invasion followed by more civil war

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 到（19）世纪末，中国还面临着该地区唯一工业化国家——日本的猛烈攻击，日本在1868年后或多或少成功实现了工业化。因此，中国和印度陷入了巨大的混乱和经济依赖。这种情况贯穿了20世纪上半叶，在中国，当然是因为革命、内战、日本侵略，以及随后的更多内战。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so that by 1950 or by the founding of the people's republic of China and at the moment of the independence of India 1947 Asia was impoverished uh and its share of world output rather than being 60% was around 18% of world output

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以到1950年，或者说中华人民共和国成立以及1947年印度独立之时，亚洲已是一贫如洗，其在世界产出中的份额不再是60%，而是降到了18%左右。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: when I was a student one of the first books I read was called Asian Drama by Gunnar Mirdall who was a Swedish economist and a Nobel laureate it was filled with doom gloom and determinism and western vision of Asia as being a poor and subservient region of course

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 当我还是学生时，我读的第一批书里有一本叫《亚洲的戏剧》（Asian Drama），作者是瑞典经济学家、诺贝尔奖得主贡纳尔·米达尔（Gunnar Myrdal）。书里充满了厄运、悲观和宿命论，当然还有西方视角下认为亚洲是一个贫穷和从属地区的看法。

章节 2：转折时刻：二战结束与亚洲独立复兴的起点

📝 本节摘要：

萨克斯教授在本章重点阐述了1950年作为历史转折点的关键意义。他指出，随着中国和印度的独立，亚洲经济曲线开始急剧上扬。他提出了一个简洁有力的观点：帝国统治阻碍发展，而独立是发展的前提。与此同时，他分析了欧洲霸权的衰落，将其归咎于两次世界大战造成的“经济自杀”。这一时期，美国超越自我毁灭的欧洲成为超级大国，确立了地缘政治的主导地位，但亚洲的经济复苏动力已然启动。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: to my mind the most significant fact of world history is that the green line turned up sharply starting around 1950 which I attribute to the independence from imperialism of the people's republic of China and of India as the two most significant developments of course the rest of East Asia sim had similar transformation uh because Korea gained its independence from Japan japanese colonization though was followed by war and division and Indochina had to fight another 25 years for its independence from America replacing France as the imperial power for a quarter century

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 在我看来，世界历史上最重要的事实是那条绿色曲线（指亚洲GDP份额）从1950年左右开始急剧上扬。我将此归因于中华人民共和国和印度摆脱帝国主义获得独立，这是两个最重要的发展。当然，东亚其他地区也经历了类似的转变，因为韩国从日本的殖民统治中获得了独立，尽管随后经历了战争和分裂；而印度支那（Indochina）不得不为摆脱美国——它取代法国成为帝国强权——的控制而再进行25年的独立斗争。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: but basically in my interpretation without going into uh depth I think it's quite simple if you're under imperial rule you can't develop if you're independent you have the chance for development and the break point came at the end of World War II

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 但基本上，按照我的解释——无需深入探讨——我认为这很简单：如果你处于帝国统治之下，你无法发展；如果你独立了，你就有了发展的机会。而这个转折点出现在第二次世界大战结束时。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: the US is an empire but a slightly different kind of empire so it did not block the Asian development and I'll return to that in just a few minutes if you look at the United States curve in this that is the line that starts uh near 0% in 1820 and by 1950 the US overtakes the western European curve which was the dominant power of the world from 1850 to the end of the second world war

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 美国是一个帝国，但它是某种略微不同类型的帝国，所以它没有阻碍亚洲的发展，我几分钟后会回到这一点。如果你看图表中的美国曲线，那是从1820年接近0%开始的线条，到1950年，美国超越了西欧曲线，而西欧从1850年到二战结束曾是世界的主导力量。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: europe destroyed itself economically in two world wars this was a kind of economic suicide because Europe had two civil wars from 1914 to 1918 and 1939 to 1945 without that Europe would have continued to be strong and imperial probably independence would not have been achieved for India and so forth

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 欧洲在两次世界大战中在经济上自我毁灭了。这是一种“经济自杀”，因为欧洲经历了两次内战，分别是从1914年到1918年，以及1939年到1945年。如果没有这些，欧洲可能会继续保持强大和帝国地位，印度等国可能也就无法获得独立。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: all of these changes came in my opinion largely because of Europe in an act of self-destruction in two industrial scale wars but the United States uh reached this remarkable fact of being larger economy than Western Europe as a whole by the beginning of uh the post World War II period 1950 and then since then more or less it's been on scale with the European sphere with the European Union as two large rich regions and largely under US geopolitical dominance

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 在我看来，所有这些变化很大程度上是因为欧洲在两次工业规模的战争中进行的自我毁灭行为。但美国达成了一个惊人的事实，即在二战后初期，即1950年，其经济规模超过了整个西欧。从那时起，它基本上与欧洲领域（欧盟）规模相当，作为两个庞大富裕的地区，并在很大程度上处于美国的地缘政治主导之下。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so the basic story is that that peak power occurred in the middle of the 20th century but since then Asia's economic dynamism and its economic recovery is the fundamental reason why geopolitics is changing of course because the balance of the world economy is again coming back into relationship with the balance of world population

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以基本的故事是，（西方）权力的巅峰出现在20世纪中叶，但自那时起，亚洲的经济活力及其经济复苏是地缘政治发生变化的根本原因。当然，这是因为世界经济的平衡正再次回归到与世界人口平衡相对应的关系中。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and the world population is Asian to a majority still 60% uh of the world population lives in Asia and now more than 50% of world output once again is in produced in Asia

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 世界人口主要是亚洲人，仍有60%的世界人口生活在亚洲，而现在超过50%的世界产出再次是在亚洲生产的。

章节 3：预测验证：《崛起的亚洲》与经济重心的东移

📝 本节摘要：

本章中，萨克斯教授回顾了他1997年出版的著作《新兴亚洲》（Emerging Asia）。这本书出版仅四周后，亚洲金融危机爆发，当时西方主流观点（如保罗·克鲁格曼）认为亚洲的增长是“神话”，甚至预言亚洲将像苏联一样崩溃。然而，27年后萨克斯回溯数据发现，他当年的乐观预测惊人地准确：亚洲在全球产出中的份额确实如他所料，从1995年的30%上升至2025年的50%。他强调，尤其是中国的崛起，并非机械性的自然增长，而是源于30年来的辛勤工作、良好规划与高额投资。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: i called the talk Emerging Asia because 28 years ago I published a book called Emerging Asia if you ever heard of the book you're alone nobody ever heard of this book and it's for a very interesting reason i published it in the spring of 1997 with the Asian Development Bank it's a very optimistic book about Asia it said Asia is going to continue to rise

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 我把这次演讲定名为“新兴亚洲”（Emerging Asia），因为28年前我出版了一本名为《新兴亚洲》的书。如果你没听说过这本书，那很正常，几乎没人听说过。这其中的原因很有趣：我在1997年春天与亚洲开发银行（Asian Development Bank）联合出版了这本书，那是一本关于亚洲的非常乐观的书，书中称亚洲将继续崛起。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: about four weeks after the book was published by the Asian Development Bank the Asian Financial Crisis came so I think always that the bank was very embarrassed by this book because the book said Asia will have a bright future uh it will be very dynamic and then a few weeks later came this massive crisis

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 在亚洲开发银行出版这本书大约四周后，亚洲金融危机爆发了。所以我总觉得银行对这本书感到非常尴尬，因为书中说亚洲将拥有光明的未来，它将非常充满活力，结果几周后就爆发了这场巨大的危机。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and the storyline in the west was that the Asian financial crisis proves that Asia's growth was a myth that it was transient that it was short-lived and uh many people in the western economics literature said that Asia doesn't really have a bright future that it's growing the same way that the Soviet Union uh was growing and that it would also collapse

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 西方当时的主流叙事是，亚洲金融危机证明了亚洲的增长是一个神话，是短暂的，是昙花一现的。许多西方经济学文献中的人说，亚洲并没有真正光明的未来，它的增长方式与苏联一样，最终也会崩溃。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: paul Krugman for example writing about the myth of the Asian miracle and saying by 2010 Asia would look like the Soviet Union in other words in a kind of collapse and that was a common idea i always thought that idea was wrong and in 1997 I published a very optimistic account of this which as I say preceded the Asian financial crisis by a few weeks

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 例如保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman），他写文章论述“亚洲奇迹的神话”，并说到了2010年，亚洲看起来会像苏联一样，换句话说，处于某种崩溃之中。那是一个普遍的观点。但我一直认为那个观点是错误的，我在1997年发表了对此非常乐观的看法，正如我所说，那是在亚洲金融危机爆发前几周。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so the story also of this talk is that about six months ago I remembered that in that book I had forecast the Asian economy for the year 2025 in one of the tables of the book so I hadn't looked at the book in 27 years and I went to see what did I say so I went to my bookshelf to get a copy of the book to look at the table and I could not even find a copy of the book it was uh out of print even in my own library

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以这个演讲的故事还在于，大约六个月前，我想起在那本书的一个表格里，我对2025年的亚洲经济做过预测。我已经27年没看过那本书了，我想去看看我当时说了什么。于是我走到书架前想拿一本看看那个表格，结果我连一本都找不到了，即使在我自己的图书馆里它也绝版了。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so I ordered it on Amazon got a copy of the book looked at the table and the table is what you see there i predicted the lefthand column and the right hand column was the actual outcome for the period 1995 to 2025 the predictions were quite optimistic they said Asia would grow rapidly and the predictions in the aggregate were almost exactly right by the way which is interesting

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以我在亚马逊上订购了一本，拿到书后查看了那个表格，那个表格就是你们现在看到的。左栏是我预测的，右栏是1995年到2025年期间的实际结果。预测相当乐观，认为亚洲将迅速增长，顺便说一句，总体预测几乎完全正确，这很有意思。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: but I underpredicted China's performance i came close to India's performance and I overpredicted ASEAN performance broadly speaking so Southeast Asia grew a little bit less than I predicted china grew faster than I predicted and if you took the aggregate it was actually quite close

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 也就是我低估了中国的表现，对印度的预测比较接近，而大体上高估了东盟（ASEAN）的表现。所以东南亚的增长比我预测的慢了一点，中国的增长比我预测的快，但如果你看总量，实际上是非常接近的。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: i said in this book in 1997 that Asia's share of world output would rise by 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2025 i was using Madison's data which discontinues in 2008 so to check how I did I went to the IMF purchasing power account and according to the IMF's data which is a little bit different in baseline Asia's share of world output rose 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2025 exactly what I said actually to the decimal point

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 我在1997年的这本书中说，在1995年到2025年间，亚洲在世界产出中的份额将上升20个百分点。当时我使用的是麦迪森（Maddison）的数据，该数据在2008年中断了。为了检查我的预测结果，我查看了国际货币基金组织（IMF）的购买力账户数据。根据IMF的数据——虽然基线略有不同——亚洲在世界产出中的份额在1995年到2025年间上升了20个百分点，实际上连小数点都正如我所说的一样。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so Asia's share of world output in the IMF accounts increased from 30% of world output in 1995 to 50% of world output in 2025 but the point is that you could tell on underlying factors that Asia was in a very dynamic state 30 years ago and the basic logic of economics said Asia will continue to narrow the gap with the richer countries it will achieve economic convergence

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以在IMF的账户中，亚洲在世界产出中的份额从1995年的30%增加到了2025年的50%。但这其中的重点是，你可以根据潜在因素判断出30年前亚洲处于非常活跃的状态，而经济学的基本逻辑表明，亚洲将继续缩小与富裕国家的差距，实现经济趋同（economic convergence）。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and that means that the growth will be higher than in the western countries meaning the US and Europe the gap will narrow the share of world output will rise and that's exactly what happened of course it's not so simple the rise of China is not a mechanical operation it was 30 years of very hard work very good planning very good strategy very high investment rates very well-governed it outperformed uh my projection

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这意味着其增长率将高于西方国家，即美国和欧洲，差距将缩小，世界产出份额将上升，而这正是发生的事情。当然，事情没那么简单，中国的崛起不是机械化的运作，那是30年非常艰苦的工作、非常好的规划、非常好的战略、非常高的投资率以及非常好的治理的结果。它的表现超过了我的预期。

章节 4：现状分析：非零和博弈下的中国科技与经济优势

📝 本节摘要：

本章聚焦于中美经济实力的现状对比与本质分析。萨克斯教授引用IMF数据指出，按购买力平价计算，中国经济规模已在2018年左右超越美国，并领先约30%。他有力地反驳了“美国仍主导科技”的观点，认为中国在大多数工业领域的生产能力已与美国持平甚至领先。更重要的是，他强调经济发展是基于“技术诀窍”（Know-how）的“正和博弈”而非争夺资源的“零和博弈”。美国部分群体在这一进程中的失落，并非源于中国的崛起，而是归咎于美国国内政治制度未能有效进行利益再分配，导致“赢家通吃”的局面。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: this is uh the IMF data and the orange line on top is the share of Asia in the world output using the IMF world economic outlook data and you see it goes from.3 to 0.5 between 1992 and 2025

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这是IMF的数据，顶部的橙色线条是使用IMF世界经济展望数据计算的亚洲在世界产出中的份额，你可以看到它在1992年到2025年间从0.3上升到了0.5。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and what you can see also of course is that this means that the share of Europe which is the green line the second line and the share of the United States which is the purple line actually North America because it includes the United States and Canada uh together in this uh grouping both of those decline as a share of world output

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 当然你也能看到，这意味着欧洲的份额（绿色线条，第二条线）和美国的份额（紫色线条，实际上是北美，因为在这个分组中包括了美国和加拿大）在世界产出中的份额都在下降。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and we know that in the IMF data at purchasing power prices China has overtaken the United States as the world's largest economy and did so sometime around the year 2018 and now is around 30% larger than the US economy

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 我们知道，在IMF按购买力平价（purchasing power prices）计算的数据中，中国已经超过美国成为世界最大的经济体，这大约发生在2018年左右，现在比美国经济规模大30%左右。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and I think that is not true in dollar terms but in purchasing power terms in dollar terms China is about 2third the size of the US economy in purchasing power adjusted terms it is about 30% larger than the US economy

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 我认为按美元计算并非如此，但在购买力计算方面是这样的。按美元计算，中国大约是美国经济规模的三分之二；按购买力调整（purchasing power adjusted）后的计算，它比美国经济规模大30%左右。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: i think on many different criteria the purchasing power measurement is the right measurement to use in making the comparisons so I regard China as a significantly larger economy than the United States is

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 我认为在许多不同的标准上，购买力衡量是进行比较时使用的正确衡量标准，所以我认为中国是一个比美国大得多的经济体。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: i also regard China as on par or ahead of the United States in almost every area of industry not in every area but in almost every area of industry

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 我还认为，在几乎所有工业领域，中国都与美国并驾齐驱或领先于美国，不是在所有领域，而是在几乎所有工业领域。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so the idea that the United States still dominates China in technology I think is not correct in almost any sphere though there are a few areas where it remains true but in most spheres I think China has equaled or excelled in technology compared to the state of the United States

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以，认为美国在科技领域仍然主导中国的想法，我认为在几乎任何领域都是不正确的，尽管在少数几个领域情况仍然如此，但在大多数领域，我认为中国在科技上已经赶上或超过了美国的水平。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: in actual living standards China's average living standards are still lower than in the US for a number of reasons but not in productive uh capacity and especially productive capacity in industry

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 在实际生活水平方面，由于多种原因，中国的平均生活水平仍低于美国，但在生产能力（productive capacity），特别是工业生产能力方面并非如此。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so this is uh basically simply showing uh what I think it's pretty much what I projected 30 years ago and it has come to pass and it's a very good thing in my opinion that this has come to pass because economics is not a zero someum game where China's rise is somehow America's detriment

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以这基本上只是展示了，我认为这与我30年前的预测非常吻合，而且它已经实现了。在我看来，它的实现是一件非常好的事情，因为经济学不是零和博弈（zero-sum game），即中国的崛起在某种程度上是对美国的损害。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: economics is a positive sum game it's not a struggle over resources economics is a progress based on knowhow fundamentally

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 经济学是正和博弈（positive sum game），它不是对资源的争夺，经济学从根本上说是基于技术诀窍（know-how）的进步。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so this isn't China taking more of the resources away from the United States this is China using improved knowhow and now cutting edge knowhow to raise living standards and that I regard as not only hugely beneficial for China but very positive for the United States and the rest of the world as well because this is not again a zero sum struggle this is something in which there is shared benefits from technological advance

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以这并非中国从美国夺走更多资源，而是中国利用改进的技术诀窍，以及现在的尖端技术诀窍来提高生活水平。我认为这不仅对中国非常有利，对美国和世界其他地区也非常积极，因为这一样不是零和斗争，而是可以从技术进步中共享利益的事情。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: i can add as a footnote as we know from trade theory it doesn't mean that everybody benefits from every advance most technological changes and international trade benefit some groups more than others

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 我可以加一个注脚：正如我们从贸易理论中知道的那样，这并不意味着每个人都能从每一项进步中受益。大多数技术变革和国际贸易对某些群体的利益要大于其他群体。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so I have no doubt that some workers in the United States were hard hit by import competition from China but the US economy as a whole was a big beneficiary of China's rise not a loser from China's rise

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 因此我毫不怀疑，美国的一些工人受到了来自中国进口竞争的沉重打击，但美国经济整体上是中国崛起的巨大受益者，而不是输家。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: if the United States had a functioning political system that redistributed gains from winners to losers then everybody could easily be better off but because we don't have a well functioning political system losers in the United States remain losers without any help from the winners because the US mentality is the winner tries to take everything

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 如果美国有一个运转良好的政治制度，将收益从赢家重新分配给输家，那么每个人都可以轻易地过得更好。但因为我们没有一个运转良好的政治制度，美国的输家仍然是输家，得不到赢家的任何帮助，因为美国的心态是赢家通吃（winner takes everything）。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: uh and um that's the way that the direction is going but that's not China's fault that is the fault of the US domestic politics

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 呃，这就是目前的发展方向，但这并非中国的错，那是美国国内政治的错。

章节 5：未来展望：全球人口结构的剧变与非洲的崛起

📝 本节摘要：

本章萨克斯教授将目光投向了未来，从地缘政治转向了更为基础的人口结构分析。他首先否定了“中国将取代美国成为唯一霸权”的观点，认为世界将进入多极化发展的阶段。随后，他列举了联合国令人震惊的人口预测数据：到2100年，中国人口可能因低生育率大幅缩减，而非洲人口将爆炸式增长至中国人口的六倍。届时，亚洲和非洲将占据全球80%以上的人口，而曾经主导世界的西方（欧美）仅占约10%。基于此，他提出非洲若能复制亚洲的追赶模式，并与中国建立紧密伙伴关系，到21世纪末其经济体量将达到全球的30%，彻底改变世界版图。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so broadly speaking this is what I think could have been and I what I did project uh 30 years ago if we look forward it is not the case that China will take over the world economy or that China will be the new hegeimon or that Asia will take over the world economy in my opinion none of that is actually in the cards

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以大体来说，这就是我认为本可能发生的情况，也是我30年前所预测的。如果我们展望未来，情况并不会是中国接管世界经济，或者中国成为新的霸权（hegemon），又或者亚洲接管世界经济。在我看来，这些实际上都不在未来的牌局之中。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: what is happening is that I believe that all regions of the world will advance by the technologies that we have today and because of demographic trends in the world we're going to see some surprises

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 正在发生的情况是，我相信世界所有地区都将通过我们今天拥有的技术取得进步，而且由于世界人口趋势的影响，我们将看到一些意想不到的事情。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: the two most dramatic demographic trends in the world are actually the population dynamics in Africa and the population dynamics in Asia especially in China

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 世界上两个最剧烈的人口趋势实际上是非洲的人口动态和亚洲（特别是中国）的人口动态。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: the population dynamic in Africa is a massive increase of population in the next 75 years because the fertility rates remain very high though I think they will come down fast but they remain very high today and therefore with a young population and high fertility rates Africa's population prospect is for a very significant rise of population

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 非洲的人口动态是在未来75年内人口将大幅增加，因为生育率仍然非常高。虽然我认为生育率会很快下降，但今天它们仍然很高，因此有着年轻的人口和高生育率，非洲的人口前景是人口将非常显著地增长。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: At the same time China's fertility rate is very low we're all going to be raising robots soon uh rather than children probably or not so many of them uh and uh the result is a likely significant decline of population of China

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 与此同时，中国的生育率非常低。我们可能很快都要养机器人了，而不是养孩子，或者至少不会养那么多孩子。结果就是中国的人口可能会出现显著下降。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: even though Chinese policy is now to try to raise the uh population and birth rate governments don't have so much say in pushing up birth rates they may call for it but I don't know of any place where it makes much difference people want fewer children uh children are expensive uh in our urban modern era uh fertility rates are well below replacement rate uh somewhere around 1.4 or even fewer children per woman

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 尽管中国现在的政策是试图提高人口和出生率，但政府在推高出生率方面并没有太大的发言权。他们可能会呼吁，但我不知道有哪个地方这真正起了很大作用。人们想要更少的孩子，在我们的城市现代时代，养孩子很昂贵。生育率远低于更替水平（replacement rate），大约是每名妇女1.4个孩子甚至更少。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: uh and that means each mother is replacing uh herself with statistically.7 daughters or so uh and that means the population is uh falling by 30% every generation cycle

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这意味着从统计学上讲，每位母亲仅用约0.7个女儿来替代自己，也就是说人口在每个代际周期下降30%。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and the generation cycle is around 30 years so every 30 to 40 years the population tends to decline by a rate of around a.7 or 30% decline and if you project this which is mechanical not a forecast but the UN makes a projection of China's population by 2100 it's shocking 640 million people instead of 1.4 billion people

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 代际周期大约是30年，所以每30到40年，人口往往会以0.7的比率或30%的幅度下降。如果你对此进行推算——这是机械性的，不是预测——但联合国对2100年中国人口的推算是令人震惊的：6.4亿人，而不是14亿人。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: that is not a forecast to be taken as a literal forecast but that is the median scenario right now of the UN population division based on an extrapolation of the very low fertility rates

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这不应被视为字面意义上的精准预测，但这目前是联合国人口司基于极低生育率推算出的中位情景（median scenario）。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: at the same time the fertility rate in Africa is around four that means each mother is having two children two daughters excuse me four children two of which are daughters so each mother uh in the next generation is producing two mothers that means a population that is doubling each generation

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 与此同时，非洲的生育率约为4，这意味着每位母亲生两个孩子……对不起是两个女儿，也就是四个孩子，其中两个是女儿。所以下一代的每位母亲都在产生两位母亲，这意味着人口每一代都在翻倍。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: africa's generation is shorter than China's generation because marriage rates are younger uh the average age of birth is younger so it might be 28 years or so if you make that projection Africa's population rises from today's 1.4 4 billion the same as China to 3.7 billion by 2100

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 非洲的代际周期比中国短，因为结婚年龄更小，平均生育年龄更小，可能在28岁左右。如果你做那个推算，非洲的人口将从今天的14亿（与中国相同）上升到2100年的37亿。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: if you can imagine that that Africa would have six times the population of China according to the UN forecast by 2100 again I don't want to say that's really a forecast but I want to say that is absolutely the overwhelming direction of change of the world demography

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 你能想象吗？根据联合国的预测，到2100年非洲的人口将是中国的六倍。再次强调，我不想说这真的是一个确定的预测，但我想说这绝对是世界人口结构变化的压倒性方向。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so in this graph just using the UN data the green line at the top is Asia's share of world population which is 6 or 60% today and it goes down to below 50% by 2100 africa is the steeply rising blue line here it goes from 18% of the world population to 37% of the world population in 2100

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以在这张图表中，仅使用联合国的数据，顶部的绿线是亚洲在世界人口中的份额，今天大约是60%，到2100年将下降到50%以下。非洲是这里急剧上升的蓝线，它从占世界人口的18%上升到2100年的37%。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: incidentally look at how Asia and Africa by 2100 have more than 80% of the world population the two regions the world will be overwhelmingly Asian and African by 2100 roughly 82% in this scenario with another 5% or so in North America and in South America and in Europe

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 顺便看一看，到2100年，亚洲和非洲将拥有超过80%的世界人口。在这两个地区，世界将绝大多数是亚洲人和非洲人，在这种情景下大约占82%，而北美、南美和欧洲加起来只有5%左右。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: how interesting uh the part of the world that dominated the world will have about 10% of the world population by 2100 on this scenario of course much can change from mass migration to very different patterns of settlement but this is a huge change in the world

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 多么有趣，那个曾经主导世界的部分，在这种情景下到2100年将只拥有世界人口的10%左右。当然，很多事情可能会改变，从大规模移民到非常不同的定居模式，但这仍是世界的一个巨大变化。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: the bottom lines are Europe Latin America North America and Eurasia they're all small parts of the world the dominant part of the world is Africa and Asia

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 底部的线条是欧洲、拉丁美洲、北美和欧亚大陆，它们都是世界的一小部分。世界的主导部分是非洲和亚洲。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: if I use a very simple model of economic catching up to ask what would the shares of world output be of different regions of the world if I use that assumption basically the core idea is that Africa could have the same kind of catching up that Asia has had over the last 40 years i think this is a real possibility

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 如果我使用一个非常简单的经济追赶模型来问，世界不同地区的世界产出份额将会是多少？如果我使用那个假设，核心观点基本上是：非洲可能实现亚洲在过去40年里所经历的那种追赶。我认为这是一个真正的可能性。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: it's by no means a guarantee but I don't regard Africa as a basket case or hopeless any more than I would have ever said that Asia fit that description but the mainstream idea is that Africa is doomed to poverty this I think is wrong because no region is doomed to poverty

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这绝不是保证，但我不认为非洲是一个无可救药的案例（basket case）或绝望之地，就像我从未认为亚洲符合那种描述一样。但主流观点认为非洲注定贫穷，我认为这是错的，因为没有哪个地区注定贫穷。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: i actually think that Africa's best hope is a close partnership with China which would be a win-win proposition for China and for Africa because these are complimentary economies a resourcerich Africa a technology rich China you put the two together that's a lot of mutual benefit and that I think is actually just what the world needs

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 我实际上认为，非洲最好的希望是与中国建立紧密的伙伴关系，这对中国和非洲将是一个双赢的主张（win-win proposition）。因为它们是互补的经济体：一个资源丰富的非洲，一个技术丰富的中国。你把两者放在一起，会有很多互利，我认为这实际上正是世界所需要的。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: but the implication of that is that Asia's share of the world economy peaks at midentury but just a little over 50% and it's a little below 50% by 2100 whereas Africa's share of the world economy which is 5% today by the end of the 21st century reaches 30% of world output what a different world that would be

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 但这意味着，亚洲在世界经济中的份额将在本世纪中叶见顶，略高于50%，而到2100年将略低于50%。相比之下，非洲在世界经济中的份额今天只有5%，但到21世纪末将达到世界产出的30%。那将是一个多么不同的世界。

章节 6：全球挑战：六大转型与过时的地缘政治思维

📝 本节摘要：

在最后的总结章节中，萨克斯教授展望了未来全球发展的核心挑战：如何应对未来25年亚洲和非洲新增的10亿城市人口。他提出了经济生活的“六大转型”，涵盖教育、健康、能源去碳化、粮食安全、可持续城市及数字经济（AI）。最后，他犀利地批评了美国决策层（特别是特朗普）仍停留在百年前的霸权思维中，误以为可以通过贸易战或科技战“扼制”世界。他警告称，当前最大的风险是“愚蠢导致战争”，并高度赞赏中国几十年来避免战争的智慧，指出世界格局已变，唯独美国的心态尚未跟上。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: just to say uh about half the world uh will live in large cities and another 25% will live in small cities large city for a UN is not what you would consider a large city in China it's 50,000 people or more uh so uh it uh and uh towns are below 50,000 down to 5,000 and then rural is less than that

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 顺便说一下，大约一半的世界人口将生活在大城市，另外25%将生活在小城市。联合国定义的“大城市”不是你们在中国认为的大城市，它是指5万人或以上的城市。而城镇是指5万人以下到5000人，再往下就是农村了。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: most of the world obviously will live in cities or towns by midentury about 1 billion more people will come into cities all of them in cities in Asia and Africa in the next 25 years so that's a big challenge ahead is effective urbanization pleasant nice good productive peaceful places for people to live more Shanghai's so uh how does one do that

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 很明显，到本世纪中叶，世界上大多数人将生活在城市或城镇中。在未来25年里，大约会有10亿更多的人进入城市，他们全部位于亚洲和非洲的城市。所以前方的一个巨大挑战是有效的城市化：建立令人愉快的、美好的、优质的、多产的、和平的居住地，比如更多的上海。那么，我们要如何做到这一点呢？

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so my view and we don't have time to discuss it at length but my view is that the dynamics of change will involve six major transformations of economic life the most important for every place in the world is education skills and technological knowhow

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 我的观点是——我们没有时间详细讨论——变革的动力将涉及经济生活的六大转型。对世界各地而言，最重要的是教育、技能和技术诀窍（technological know-how）。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and this is what will propel China for the next quarter century is China's leadership in innovation china is the world's leading innovation economy today it produces the most patents the most uh journal articles weighted by impact and the most uh industrial advances the United States second so this is uh the first transformation

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这正是将在未来四分之一世纪推动中国发展的动力，即中国在创新方面的领导地位。中国今天是世界领先的创新经济体，它产出了最多的专利、最多的按影响力加权的期刊文章，以及最多的工业进步。美国位居第二。所以这是第一个转型。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: second is health and health care which remains uh vital for well-being and for our survival the third is sustainable industry meaning that we transition to a decarbonized energy system and a circular industrial ecology in other words dramatic reductions of pollution this is by no means being achieved or guaranteed but it's absolutely crucial

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 第二个是健康和医疗保健，这对于福祉和我们的生存仍然至关重要。第三个是可持续工业，意味着我们要过渡到脱碳能源系统和循环工业生态，换句话说就是大幅减少污染。这绝非已经实现或得到保证，但它绝对至关重要。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: the fourth is sustainable food supplies and land use the fifth is sustainable cities especially with another billion people joining large cities in the next 25 years and the sixth is the transformation to a digital economy and the very strong implications of what artificial intelligence will mean for the organization of work and for the distribution of income and for the role of the public sector

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 第四个是可持续的粮食供应和土地利用。第五个是可持续城市，特别是在未来25年将有另外10亿人加入大城市的情况下。第六个是向数字经济的转型，以及人工智能对工作组织、收入分配和公共部门角色的非常强烈的影响。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: all of what I am saying is we're in a fundamental change of world history it's happened the western dominance ended around 25 years ago the idea in Trump's head that the US dominates is about a hundred years out of date so is Trump on almost everything

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 我所说的一切归结为，我们正处于世界历史的根本性变革之中。这已经发生了，西方的主导地位大约在25年前就结束了。特朗普脑海中认为美国仍占主导地位的想法，大约过时了一百年，就像特朗普在几乎所有事情上都过时了一样。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: it doesn't make the situation safe it means there's actually a very big gap between the political perceptions of American policy makers and the world as it is today and that gap is very dangerous because the US policy makers and especially the president of the United States believe the US still runs the show and believes that the US is still so powerful that it can dictate the terms to the rest of the world

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这并不能让局势变得安全，这意味着美国决策者的政治认知与当今世界的现实之间存在巨大的鸿沟。这个鸿沟非常危险，因为美国决策者，特别是美国总统，相信美国仍然掌控着局面（runs the show），相信美国仍然强大到可以向世界其他地区发号施令。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: and that's why he thinks he can win the tariff wars the trade wars the technology wars and so forth all of this in my view is wrong because he didn't read emerging Asia so he doesn't know uh what happened he doesn't understand the reality of uh our world today

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这就是为什么他认为他能打赢关税战、贸易战、科技战等等。在我看来，所有这些都是错误的，因为他没读过《新兴亚洲》，所以他不知道发生了什么，他不理解我们当今世界的现实。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: the US is only about 14% of world output it's about 12% of world trade and it does not have a chokeold that I can see on any major technology uh whether it is semiconductors or artificial intelligence or biotechnology or any other area it has many advanced technologies but no chokeold on these technologies so I believe the world continues to converge

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 美国只占世界产出的约14%，占世界贸易的约12%，而且我看不到它对任何主要技术拥有扼制权（chokehold），无论是半导体、人工智能、生物技术还是任何其他领域。它拥有许多先进技术，但没有对这些技术的扼制权。所以我相信世界将继续趋同。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: the biggest danger in the world is that the instability leads to conflict because conflict is devastating especially in the nuclear age it's by far the biggest risk we face is stupidity leading to war and that China has avoided the United States has not avoided

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 世界上最大的危险是这种不稳定导致冲突，因为冲突是毁灭性的，特别是在核时代。目前为止我们面临的最大风险是愚蠢导致战争。而那是中国已经避免了的，但美国没有避免。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: that china's wisdom has been to stay out of all wars for decades and in fact the last war China was involved in was in 1979 for one month uh in a spat with Vietnam but before that also no wars for a long time

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 中国的智慧在于几十年来置身于所有战争之外。实际上，中国最后一次卷入战争是在1979年，那是与越南的一次小冲突，持续了一个月。而在那之前，也有很长一段时间没有战争。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so that's part of China's success is that it has avoided overt conflict while the United States has been in non-stop conflict and the mindset in the United States is for more conflict because the US thinks it can win but it keeps losing these conflicts

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 所以这是中国成功的一部分，即它避免了公开冲突，而美国一直处于不停的冲突之中。美国的心态是寻求更多冲突，因为美国认为它可以赢，但它一直在输掉这些冲突。

[原文] [Jeffery Sachs]: so that's how I see the geopolitics and the economics related the world has changed but the American mindset has not yet changed thank you very much

[译文] [Jeffery Sachs]: 这就是我如何看待地缘政治与经济学的关系：世界已经变了，但美国的心态还没有变。非常感谢大家。