章节 1：市场波动与人工智能的巨大机遇

📝 本节摘要：

Cathie Wood 开篇指出，近期市场的剧烈波动主要由算法交易（Algorithmic Trading）引发，而非基本面恶化。她重申人工智能是“毕生最大的机遇”，并将当前环境与互联网泡沫时期进行对比：当下的科技巨头（Mag 6）增加资本支出是为了抓住巨大的 AI 机会，这与当年的盲目烧钱截然不同。此外，她提到软件行业正从 SaaS（软件即服务）向 PaaS（平台即服务）转型，虽然市场对此反应过度（“把婴儿连同洗澡水一起倒掉”），但这反而为 ARK 集中投资高确信度标的提供了良机。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Anyone who sold regretted it. Most of this volatility is algorithmically generated. Algorithms are not doing the research that we're doing because this is the biggest opportunity of our lifetime.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 任何（在波动中）卖出的人都后悔了。大部分这种波动都是由算法生成的。算法并没有做我们正在做的研究，因为这是我们毕生最大的机遇。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Greetings everyone, uh, my name is Kathy Wood, CEO and CIO of Arc Invest. Uh, this is employment Friday, sort of. Uh, the employment report did not come out, uh, today; it came out on Wednesday. Uh, but nonetheless, Friday seems to be a good time, uh, to do this video.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 大家好，我是 ARK Invest 的 CEO 兼 CIO Cathie Wood。今天是“就业周五”，某种程度上算是吧。就业报告并没有在今天发布，它是在周三发布的。不过尽管如此，周五似乎还是录制这个视频的好时机。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So as usual we'll go through fiscal policy, monetary policy, economics, market indicators. Uh, I'll just start with, uh, a few comments about, about the environment, uh, which has been extremely volatile recently.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 照例，我们将梳理财政政策、货币政策、经济状况和市场指标。我想先对当前的市场环境做一些评论，最近市场波动极其剧烈。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: I think, um, you know we've been talking about AI since ARC was founded in 2014. We've been all over it; that's when we took our first NVIDIA position. And so, um, we've been doing a lot of research and we've, um, I think been, uh, doing very well in terms of understanding how this environment is going to evolve.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我想，大家都知道自 ARK 于 2014 年成立以来，我们就一直在谈论人工智能。我们一直全身心投入其中；也就是在那时我们建立了第一个英伟达（NVIDIA）仓位。所以，我们做了大量的研究，而且我认为，在理解环境将如何演变方面，我们要做得非常好。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: In the last In The Know, which was an interim one, I described how we did anticipate a shift in terms of incremental share away from SAS as platform as a service, um, basically usurp the role of SAS and really helped customize for each company, uh, their own platform insteading, instead of using a one-size-fits-all.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 在上一期临时的《In The Know》视频中，我描述了我们要如何预判了增量市场份额的转移：即从 SaaS（软件即服务）转向 PaaS（平台即服务）。PaaS 基本上篡夺了 SaaS 的角色，真正帮助每家公司定制自己的平台，而不是使用“一刀切”的方案。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So that wasn't surprising, but as usual, uh, the market throws the baby out with the bathwater, or maybe it's the investors, uh, or the speculators. And so, uh, as usual, we, uh, uh, consolidate our positions to our higher conviction names.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以这并不令人意外，但也像往常一样，市场把婴儿连同洗澡水一起倒掉了，或者说是投资者，亦或是投机者干的。因此，我们也像往常一样，将仓位集中到我们要确信度最高的股票上。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: But you know most of this volatility is algorithmically generated. Algorithms are not doing the research that we're doing, uh, and so that is why we concentrate towards our highest conviction names. The market gives us that opportunity.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但你知道，大部分这种波动都是由算法生成的。算法并没有做我们要正在做的研究，这也是为什么我们要向最高确信度的股票集中。市场给了我们要这个机会。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So that's been, uh, a, those are our comments around the volatility. Um, and you'll remember last April during tariff turmoil, I was on here saying look, we think this is temporary, what's going on in the market. Remember there was a sharp decline and a lot of people were freaked out.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这就是我们要关于波动的评论。你们可能还记得去年四月关税风波期间，我在这里说过：看，我们要认为这只是暂时的，市场正在发生的事情是暂时的。记得当时有一次急剧下跌，很多人都吓坏了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Even the, even investors who typically are very calm and, and, and used to volatility, uh, they were shaken last year. Anyone who sold during that moment of drama, uh, regretted it for the rest of the year. The market has been up very strongly since.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 甚至那些通常非常冷静、习惯了波动的投资者，去年也被动摇了。任何在那一戏剧性时刻卖出的人，那一整年剩下的时间里都后悔了。自那以后，市场上涨得非常强劲。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: This market is climbing a wall of worry. Uh, those are the strongest bull markets. The volatility does shake, uh, people up, but frankly this is so much healthier an environment than what we experienced during the tech and telecom bubble.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这个市场正在攀越“忧虑之墙”（Wall of Worry）。这往往是最强劲的牛市特征。波动确实会动摇人心，但坦率地说，现在的环境比我们在科技和电信泡沫时期经历的要健康得多。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: During that market, uh, you know Jeff Bezos could come out and say, uh, you know we're going to lose so much more money because we're investing aggressively, this internet opportunity is as vast a, and even vaster than we imagined, and the market would go, go up and, and take Amazon up 10, 15%.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 在那个（泡沫）市场里，杰夫·贝佐斯（Jeff Bezos）可以出来说，我们要会亏损更多的钱，因为我们要正在积极投资，这个互联网机会巨大，甚至比我们要想象的还要巨大，然后市场就会上涨，把亚马逊推高 10% 到 15%。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, that would not happen today. Quite the opposite. As the mag six, uh, companies are basically saying you know we're going to spend more money, uh, you're used to our free cash flow dynamics and they've only been moving, uh, one way for the last five years or so, uh, that's going to change.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这种事在今天不会发生了。恰恰相反。当那六大科技巨头（Mag 6）基本上在说“我们要打算花更多的钱”时——你们习惯了我们的自由现金流动态，在过去五年左右的时间里它们只朝一个方向（增长）移动——那是会改变的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And we're seeing, uh, some of the more traditional investors who, uh, do focus mostly on free cash flow and free cash, uh, um, flow margins, um, a little unsettled and taking, uh, their position sizes down.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们看到一些更传统的投资者，那些主要关注自由现金流和自由现金流利润率的人，感到有些不安，并正在减仓。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, we don't think that is necessarily a good idea. We think that Google and Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, um, should be spending aggressively because this is the biggest opportunity of our lifetime.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们认为这未必是个好主意。我们要认为 Google、Meta、Microsoft 和 Amazon 应该积极支出，因为这是我们要毕生最大的机遇。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: The question is, um, as we, as we evolve towards agentic AI and, uh, and chat bots, is this going to take time away from traditional social media? Are we going to, uh, from a shopping point of view, have our agents do all the work and do it around the internet? So maybe Amazon doesn't get cut in as much as it has been recently.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 问题在于，随着我们要向代理型人工智能（Agentic AI）和聊天机器人演进，这是否会从传统社交媒体那里抢走时间？从购物的角度来看，我们要是否会让我们的代理（Agents）在互联网上完成所有工作？所以也许亚马逊分到的蛋糕不会像最近那么多。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, we, we will see, uh, and we'll certainly be paying a lot of attention to share gains and incremental share gains, which is what we got right around the SAS call.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们拭目以待，我们肯定会密切关注市场份额的增长和增量份额的获取，这正是我们要在 SaaS 预测上做对的地方。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, all right. So, uh, I think, uh, we'll start with the charts. Uh, I just would like to characterize this environment much like, uh, I did for macro reasons, uh, the, the trade turmoil environment. It is presenting great opportunities and, uh, we definitely lean into the volatility as I just mentioned.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 好了。我想我们要开始看图表了。我想把现在的环境描述得像我因宏观原因描述贸易动荡环境时那样。它正在呈现巨大的机会，正如我刚才提到的，我们绝对会利用这种波动性。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, and, and our longer term performance is really made with these decisions. So, uh, let's go into the charts here we go.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而且，我们的长期业绩确实是由这些决定造就的。所以，让我们进入图表部分吧。

章节 2：财政前景：赤字、生产力与GDP增长

📝 本节摘要：

Cathie Wood 深入分析了美国的财政状况。她指出预算赤字占 GDP 的比例正在改善，并预测在 AI 驱动的生产力爆发下（以 Palantir 惊人的效率为例），美国有望在本届总统任期结束前（2028-2029年）实现财政盈余。她提出了全球实际 GDP 增长可能达到 7-8% 的大胆预测。此外，她讨论了“双赤字”问题，认为强劲的经济增长和营商环境自然会吸引资本流入形成资本盈余，因此无需过度担忧贸易赤字。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, budget deficit as a share of GDP, uh, it dropped below five, 5% for a nanosecond, uh, uh, until the GDP numbers or, and expectations for the, uh, first quarter were revised down, but we're closing in on a four handle.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 嗯，预算赤字占 GDP 的比例，它曾在一瞬间降至 5% 以下，直到第一季度的 GDP 数据或预期被下调，但我们正在接近“4字头”。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, Treasury Secretary Bessant, uh, has the goal of 3%. We actually think, and our conviction is growing on this, that we're going to end up in a surplus situation by the end of, uh, this president's, uh, term, so late '28, early '29.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 财政部长 Bessant 的目标是 3%。实际上我们认为——而且我们对此的信念正在增强——在该总统任期结束时，即 28 年底或 29 年初，我们要最终会处于盈余状态。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And that's because, uh, we can see productivity growth, uh, much, uh, surprising on the high side of expectations.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这是因为我们可以看到生产力增长大大超出了预期。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, you know you're getting crazy examples like Palantir. Its US commercial revenue growth was 142%, up 142%, and I think the number of sales people at, uh, Palantir actually shrunk a bit, so that productivity gain is astounding. It's at least from a sales point of view is more than 100%, more than 140%.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 你知道，你会看到像 Palantir 这样疯狂的例子。其美国商业收入增长了 142%，增长了 142%，而我认为 Palantir 的销售人员数量实际上减少了一点，所以这种生产力的提升是惊人的。至少从销售角度来看，超过了 100%，超过了 140%。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, and you know, I think this is a mindset we're all going to have to develop. The, these are, this is a muscle we'll have to develop in talking about the way the world works and the way companies are working.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而且你知道，我认为这是一种我们都必须培养的心态。这是我们在谈论世界运作方式和公司运作方式时必须锻炼的一种肌肉。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, you know Elon Musk puts out there some crazy numbers in terms of his goals. You know, I, I think that is the right mindset and, and companies who do not have that mindset, uh, are, are going to lose out, uh, opportunities, uh, to other more nimble competitors.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 你知道 Elon Musk 针对他的目标提出了一些疯狂的数字。我认为那是正确的心态，那些没有这种心态的公司将会把机会输给其他更灵活的竞争对手。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so we've thrown out there a 7%, 7 to 8% GDP growth, real GDP growth number globally, uh, by the end of this decade. Many people laugh at that. Uh, that's probably way too conservative given what we're seeing, and it probably means this deficit is going to shrink, uh, dramatically as a share of GDP, and unless there are just some stupid policies, uh, and move into surplus.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以我们抛出了一个数据，即到本十年末，全球实际 GDP 增长率将达到 7% 到 8%。很多人对此嗤之以鼻。但鉴于我们所看到的情况，这可能还太保守了，这可能意味着赤字占 GDP 的比例将急剧收缩，除非有一些愚蠢的政策，否则将进入盈余状态。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: I think COVID was a big scare and got the bond markets very worried, got investors very worried. Um, now we're righting the ship and, uh, hopefully lessons learned and we'll end up in a surplus like in the 90s, the last time there was a mini technology revolution called the internet.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我认为 COVID 是一次巨大的恐慌，让债券市场非常担心，让投资者非常担心。现在我们正在稳住局面，希望吸取教训，我们最终会像 90 年代那样实现盈余，那是上一次出现被称为互联网的小型技术革命的时候。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so, uh, now this is the other deficit. When in, in the 70s and, and 80s, um, the bond market was vigilant and focused on the twin deficits. One was the federal budget deficit and the other was the trade deficit.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那么现在谈谈另一个赤字。在 70 年代和 80 年代，债券市场非常警惕并关注“双赤字”：一个是联邦预算赤字，另一个是贸易赤字。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And you can see what happened to the trade deficit, uh, during COVID and its aftermath. Um, imports boomed and, uh, we went into a very steep, uh, deficit, uh, as you can see here.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 你可以看到在 COVID 期间及其后果中贸易赤字发生了什么。进口激增，我们陷入了非常严重的赤字，正如你在这里看到的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, that also is changing and many people in the foreign currency markets, uh, use the trade deficit as their gauge of where the dollar is going to go. And if we're importing a lot more than we are exporting, uh, the fear is that the dollar will go down. There, there are excesses developing in the market.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那也在发生变化。许多外汇市场的人使用贸易赤字作为衡量美元走势的指标。如果我们进口远多于出口，人们就会担心美元会下跌，担心市场正在形成过剩。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, and so you can see we've corrected this. Of course, tariffs, um, the, the, the steep decline there was front-running imports because of tariffs, impending tariffs, and now we've seen the other side of that.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以你可以看到我们已经修正了这一点。当然，关税……那里的急剧下降是因为由于即将到来的关税而抢先进口（front-running imports），现在我们看到了它的另一面。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: If we're right, and, and I was surprised at how, how limited, uh, the deficit was just a few months ago. If we're right and the US is going to surprise on the high side of expectations in terms of real GDP growth and that the return on invested capital in the United States is going to go up, um, and because of tax cuts and deregulations and the tariffs, well then, uh, we're probably going to see more import growth. Uh, not because of tariffs of course, but for the first two reasons, more import growth and we will continue to have a deficit.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 如果我们也是对的——而且就在几个月前我还对赤字如此有限感到惊讶——如果我们是对的，美国在实际 GDP 增长方面将超出预期，并且美国的投资资本回报率将上升，因为减税、放松管制和关税，那么我们可能会看到更多的进口增长——当然不是因为关税，而是因为前两个原因——更多的进口增长，我们将继续有赤字。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now we have never really worried about a trade deficit, um, because when you, when you take into account the entire picture, uh, the other side of a trade balance, which is goods and services, the other side of that is a capital surplus.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 不过，我们从未真正担心过贸易赤字。因为当你考虑到全貌时，贸易差额（商品和服务）的另一面是资本盈余。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, again, money attracted from the rest of the world because of the good environment we typically enjoy here in the United States, uh, from a business friendliness and capital friendliness point of view.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 同样，这是从世界其他地方吸引来的资金，因为我们在美国通常享有的良好环境——从商业友好和资本友好的角度来看。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so I just thought I'd talk about the twin deficits because, uh, I know people worry about them. Uh, and, uh, we can see on the tra, on the trade deficit, I've just explained why we don't worry about that. Uh, on the federal deficit, um, we, uh, are seeing a nice, uh, a nice improvement in the deficit as a percent of GDP.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以我只是想谈谈双赤字，因为我知道人们担心它们。关于贸易赤字，我刚才解释了为什么我们不担心。关于联邦赤字，我们看到赤字占 GDP 的百分比有了很好的改善。

章节 3：美元地位、通胀动态与货币政策

📝 本节摘要：

针对关于“美国例外论”终结的担忧，Cathie Wood 反驳称，由美国和中国主导的 AI 技术革命将引发经济活动爆发，从而支撑美元走强。她认为强势美元是强大的抗通胀力量。通过分析 M2 货币供应量和货币流通速度，她预测通胀将打破当前的 2-3% 僵局，并在今年显著下行。此外，她批评美联储目前的限制性政策（通过收益率曲线倒挂体现），并高度评价 Kevin Warsh 的观点：即 AI 带来的真实增长不会导致通胀，反而会通过提高生产力来抑制通胀，正如 80 年代和 90 年代的繁荣时期一样。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: I also wanted to, uh, depict where the dollar is. I know I've shown you this chart before, but this is the other worry out there. You, you hear lots of talk about the end of US exceptionalism, um, whatever that means. It probably means something different to, uh, different people.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我还想描述一下美元的处境。我知道我之前给你们看过这张图，但这是外界的另一个担忧。你会听到很多关于“美国例外论”（US exceptionalism）终结的讨论，不管那意味着什么。这对不同的人来说可能意味着不同的东西。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: But from an economic point of view, uh, I would say we have not. In fact, we're probably, we're probably going to see, um, an, uh, explosion in, uh, activity here in the United States because of this technology revolution.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但从经济角度来看，我会说我们并没有（终结）。事实上，由于这场技术革命，我们可能会在美国看到经济活动的爆发。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, the US and China are leading that charge, uh, and so I do believe that the dollar is going to turn around and move in the other direction. Sure, it's gone down, be mostly for political reasons.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 美国和中国正在引领这一进程，所以我确实相信美元将会掉头并向另一个方向（上涨）移动。当然，它下跌了，主要是因为政治原因。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: I, I would suggest company, countries are diversifying away from the dollar into gold, uh, and other currencies, but we think this is going to change. It, it reached an extreme, uh, especially given where the gold price has been.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我认为各个国家正在将资产从美元分散到黄金和其他货币中，但我们认为这种情况将会改变。它已经达到了一个极端，特别是考虑到金价的走势。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: But look what happened to the dollar. If you look at this chart, put this into perspective, this is not a collapse in the dollar. Uh, and it's if you're a technician, you'd say hey, the dollar has held where you would have expected it to hold, uh, uh, where it last peaked, uh, as, as shown, uh, in with the black line.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但看看美元发生了什么。如果你看这张图，客观看待一下，这并不是美元的崩溃。如果你是一个技术分析师，你会说，嘿，美元守住了你预期它会守住的位置，也就是它上一次见顶的位置，正如黑线所示。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So, um, if the dollar goes up, one thing, uh, that I like to focus on is the dollar going up is a powerful anti-inflationary force. And we do believe, uh, that the dollar will go up and will contribute to a surprise on the low side of inflation expectations.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以，如果美元上涨——我喜欢关注的一点是——美元上涨是一股强大的抗通胀力量。我们确实相信美元会通过上涨，并促使通胀预期出现低于预期的惊喜。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so here you see the, uh, a graph of the CPI, uh, in green. This is the year-over-year percent change CPI versus M2. Uh, we're still recovering from, from the negative growth in M2, but I think we've stalled in this 5% range.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这里你们看到的是 CPI 的图表，绿色的那条。这是 CPI 的同比百分比变化与 M2（广义货币供应量）的对比。我们仍在从 M2 的负增长中恢复，但我认为我们停滞在这个 5% 的范围内。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And, uh, as I've mentioned before, we also think that velocity is starting to flatten out or go down. Uh, so the velocity, uh, going down or flattening out, uh, will diffuse some of the inflation expectations associated with, uh, money growth.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而且，正如我之前提到的，我们还认为货币流通速度（Velocity）正在开始趋平或下降。货币流通速度的下降或趋平，将化解一些与货币增长相关的通胀预期。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now what you see from the green line is kind of looks stuck in the 2 to 3% range and it has been for the last few years. Um, we think that it is going to resolve to the downside, uh, importantly in, I would say this year.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 现在你能从绿线看到的是，它似乎卡在 2% 到 3% 的范围内，过去几年一直如此。我们认为它将会向下突破，重要的是，我认为会是在今年。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now I've been saying this for a long time. Had no idea supply shocks would, uh, cause this stickiness in inflation. I didn't think supply shocks would last for three years. We didn't expect the tariffs.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我这话已经说了很久了。我没想到供给冲击会导致通胀出现这种粘性。我不认为供给冲击会持续三年。我们也确实没预料到关税。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: But, uh, I think, uh, when, when you put it in, in, in that context, to be in the 2 to 3% range, uh, during that period of turmoil, um, is actually pretty good and probably suggests or corroborates this notion that we're going to see a drop in inflation.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但是，我认为当你把它放在那个背景下看，在那段动荡时期通胀处于 2% 到 3% 的范围内，实际上已经相当不错了，这可能暗示或证实了我们将看到通胀下降的观点。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So here, uh, just to give you a sense of monetary policy, this is the yield curve at the short end of the curve. So the 2-year Treasury yield versus the three-month Treasury yield, and you can see it's still in negative territory, which suggests that at the margin the Fed is not accommodative. It, it's a little too tight, uh, according to this measure.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这里为了让你们对货币政策有个概念，这是曲线短端的收益率曲线。即 2 年期国债收益率对 3 个月国债收益率，你可以看到它仍处于负值区域，这表明在边际上美联储并不宽松。根据这一指标，政策有点太紧了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: According to the 10-year Treasury yield versus the two-year Treasury yield, it is in positive territory, but you can see that downward, uh, sloping line, uh, that we've drawn there. And thanks to Dan White, uh, for, for doing these charts, uh, this month.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 至于 10 年期国债收益率对 2 年期国债收益率，它处于正值区域，但你可以看到我们在那里画的那条向下倾斜的线。感谢 Dan White 这个月制作了这些图表。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, what you would expect if the Fed eases aggressively, this will continue to move up. And the Fed could, uh, ease aggressively if we start to see, uh, negative inflation numbers. We probably won't see them on a year-over-year basis until Kevin Warsh takes over.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 如果美联储积极放宽政策，你会预期这条线继续向上移动。如果我们开始看到负的通胀数据，美联储可能会积极放宽。在 Kevin Warsh（凯文·沃什）接管之前，我们可能不会在同比数据上看到负值。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now what we know about Kevin Warsh is he's actually quite a disciplined, um, economist, uh, from a monetary point of view. And, um, and so it's been very comforting for me to hear him say this AI revolution is probably going to accelerate, uh, growth in many sectors of the economy.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们所知道的 Kevin Warsh，从货币角度来看，实际上是一位相当有纪律的经济学家。所以，听到他说这场 AI 革命可能会加速经济许多部门的增长，这让我感到非常欣慰。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And as, uh, as a monetary authority, uh, we should accommodate that real growth as long as it's not causing inflation. So if we have negative inflation, and I think we will, um, and real GDP growth is growing rapidly, in this Fed, that would cause a tightening and that would be a bad mistake.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 他认为作为货币当局，只要不引起通胀，我们就应该适应这种真实增长。所以如果我们出现负通胀——我认为我们会——而实际 GDP 增长迅速，在现任美联储看来，这会导致紧缩，那将是一个糟糕的错误。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, this Fed thinks that growth causes inflation. Um, Kevin Warsh has it right. It does not cause inflation. In fact, it causes an acceleration in productivity growth, which dampens inflation.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 现任美联储认为增长会导致通胀。Kevin Warsh 是对的。增长不会导致通胀。事实上，它会导致生产力增长加速，从而抑制通胀。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And that was the story of the, the magical markets, the magical equity market of the 80s and 90s. Real growth accelerated, inflation came down, and productivity was a large part of the reason.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这就是 80 年代和 90 年代神奇市场、神奇股市的故事。实际增长加速，通胀下降，而生产力是其中的很大一部分原因。

章节 4：劳动力成本、房地产与真实通胀信号

📝 本节摘要：

本节 Cathie Wood 重点驳斥了凯恩斯主义经济学家对通胀的担忧。她指出，单位劳动力成本并未如 70 年代那样飙升，主要得益于强劲的生产力增长和工会力量的减弱（占比已降至 10% 以下）。此外，房地产市场传递出明确的通缩信号：成屋价格通胀低于 1%，新屋价格通胀为负，租金亦开始下跌。结合油价因中国电动车普及而下跌，以及 Trueflation（真实通胀） 数据显示实际通胀率已降至 0.7% 左右，她坚信通胀将在未来几年进一步下行，甚至出现负增长。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Productivity is output per manh hour and, uh, unit labor costs are compensation adjusted for productivity. Now if you look at this chart, you'll see we're at, I think it's 1.2% roughly.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 生产力是每工时产出，而单位劳动力成本是经生产力调整后的薪酬。现在如果你看这张图，你会看到我们处于——我想大概是 1.2%。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: This is the chart, uh, many I would say Keynesian economists have been, um, have been focusing on, uh, and they thought unit labor cost growth would continue to accelerate or stay in sort of that 5 to 7% range.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这就是许多我会说是凯恩斯主义经济学家一直关注的图表，他们曾认为单位劳动力成本增长将继续加速或保持在 5% 到 7% 的范围内。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, they didn't get productivity right. Uh, productivity has been stronger than expected and they didn't get compensation right either. It has been, that growth rate has been lower than expected.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 他们没有算对生产力。生产力比预期的要强；他们也没有算对薪酬。增长率比预期的要低。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: But they took lessons and they have scarred tissue, many of them from the 60s and 70s when unit labor cost growth, you can see on this chart, trended up into the double digits and it was because, uh, workers were demanding more, uh, compensation increase, higher compensation increases because food prices were going up so rapidly and energy prices were going up so rapidly.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但他们吸取了教训，他们中许多人有来自 60 年代和 70 年代的创伤，当时单位劳动力成本增长——你可以在这张图上看到——呈上升趋势并进入两位数，那是因为工人要求更多的薪酬增长，更高的薪酬增长，因为食品价格上涨得如此之快，能源价格也上涨得如此之快。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Well, and so they were poised for that this time as well given the supply shocks we went through, uh, with COVID. Uh, well you can see that did not happen and so really any Keynesian, um, economist has to look at this and say this time is different.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以鉴于我们经历的 COVID 供给冲击，他们这次也做好了准备。你可以看到这并没有发生，所以任何凯恩斯主义经济学家都不得不看着这个说，这次不一样了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, even though real GDP growth has been from a headline point of view, um, fine, um, and the unemployment rate has been low, uh, we did not get a pickup in unit labor costs.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 尽管从标题数据的角度来看实际 GDP 增长尚可，失业率也很低，但我们并没有看到单位劳动力成本的回升。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: One of the reasons, uh, in terms of workers not making, um, as strong demands as they did in the 70s, uh, one of the reasons is oil prices have come down. Uh, so that's a, a at the margin, a, a help to the budget.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 关于工人没有像 70 年代那样提出强烈要求的原因之一，其中一个原因是油价下跌了。所以在边际上这对预算有帮助。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, the other reason is I think that unions as a percent of employ or union workers as a percent of total, uh, employment, uh, I think they've dropped below 10% or whereas they got up to nearly a quarter of the workforce in the 70s early 80s.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 另一个原因是，我认为工会占就业的百分比，或者说工会工人占总就业的百分比，我认为已经降到了 10% 以下，而在 70 年代和 80 年代初，他们曾达到劳动力的近四分之一。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And of course their leaders were the champions, uh, and and really, uh, driving, uh, a driving force behind the massive increase in in compensation, uh, per manh hour.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 当然他们的领导人是捍卫者，确实是每工时薪酬大幅增加背后的驱动力。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So, um, we think, uh, just to avoid, uh, or or to be a little clearer, um, we think we don't need unions. Uh, if we're right on what's about to happen to this economy, if the economy booms the way we think it's going to boom and if the opportunities burgeon the way we think they will burgeon and real growth accelerates, we think compensation growth will accelerate for a good reason.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以，为了避免误解或说得更清楚一点，我们认为我们要不需要工会。如果我们对经济即将发生的事情的判断是正确的，如果经济像我们认为的那样繁荣，如果机会像我们认为的那样迅速涌现，实际增长加速，我们认为薪酬增长将因正当理由而加速。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: It will be, uh, in response to the productivity gains, uh, of all workers if, uh, companies harness these new technologies AI robotics and and so forth.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那将是作为对所有工人生产力提升的回应，如果公司利用这些新技术、人工智能、机器人等等的话。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Onto, uh, the next reason we think inflation, uh, is not going to surprise on the high side of expectations here you see real estate prices. Uh, and you can see existing in the green existing home price inflation, uh, has dropped below 1%.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 接下来是我们认为通胀不会超出预期的下一个原因，这里你看到的是房地产价格。你可以看到绿色的成屋价格通胀已经降至 1% 以下。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And new home price inflation meaning the price inflation associated with new home sales, uh, that continues to be negative and rents are starting to fall.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而新屋价格通胀——即与新屋销售相关的价格通胀——继续为负值，且租金开始下降。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: It takes so long for these numbers to get into the government's CPI index, um, and we think therefore that these price pressures are going to place downward pressure on the CPI for the next couple of years. Uh, so we we feel pretty confident about that.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这些数据进入政府的 CPI 指数需要很长时间，因此我们认为这些价格压力将在未来几年对 CPI 施加下行压力。所以我们要对此感到非常有信心。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And then, uh, here you can see oil prices down on a year-over-year basis you know down double digits on a year-over-, uh, year basis. Now that typically happens during a recession, um, but we're seeing it happen u globally now because especially in China the shift towards electric vehicles has been phenomenal.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 然后在这里你可以看到油价同比下跌，你知道同比下跌了两位数。这通常发生在衰退期间，但我们现在看到这在全球范围内发生，特别是因为在中国，向电动汽车的转变是惊人的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: I think more than more than half of, uh, the new, uh, the cars sold and in fact in fact it might be more than 80% of the cars sold in China now are electric, uh, so that's taking away some demand from oil.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我认为超过一半的新车销售，实际上实际上可能中国现在销售的汽车中有超过 80% 是电动的，所以这夺走了一些石油需求。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And of course the Middle East Saudi Arabia the swing factor has been increasing supply and I think that might have something to do with a political dynamic, uh, uh, with, uh, negotiations between the Trump administration and Saudi Arabia on all on all kind kinds of things including defense.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 当然，中东的沙特阿拉伯作为调节因素一直在增加供应，我认为这可能与政治动态有关，涉及特朗普政府与沙特阿拉伯之间关于包括国防在内的各种事情的谈判。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, here you can see we've broken out, uh, core CPI from core PPI. Uh, CPI you can see in the purple there and PPI you can see in the green and what you can also see if you look carefully is that the PPI inflation rate has moved above the CPI inflation rate.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 在这里你可以看到我们将核心 CPI 和核心 PPI 分开了。你可以看到紫色的 CPI 和绿色的 PPI。如果你仔细看，你还可以看到 PPI 通胀率已经超过了 CPI 通胀率。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So those of you who are exposed in the market to consumer goods companies might be hearing more about margin pressure and, uh, so watch out for that.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以你们中那些在市场上有消费品公司敞口的人可能会听到更多关于利润率压力的消息，所以要注意这一点。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, and here's the most important slide trueflation. Uh, this is saying after wrestling in this 2 to 3% range for several years inflation is breaking down. Uh, it is as of this reading I think about 0.7% on a year-over-year basis and remember this is a real time indicator 10,000, uh, monitoring 10,000, uh, goods and services.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这是最重要的一张幻灯片：Trueflation（真实通胀）。这表明在 2% 到 3% 的范围内挣扎了几年后，通胀正在瓦解。截至本次读数，我认为同比约为 0.7%。请记住这是一个实时指标，监测着 10,000 种商品和服务。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, and you can see it probably captured the peak in inflation better than the CPI. It went up almost to 12% whereas the CPI was up 9%.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 你可以看到它可能比 CPI 更好地捕捉到了通胀的峰值。它几乎涨到了 12%，而 CPI 上涨了 9%。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, one thing, uh, that we are seeing in real time, um, is food price inflation, uh, coming down. Um, we're seeing deflation in eggs, uh, and and some of the the the food items that, um, that, uh, were very painful for people, uh, in terms of affordability during during COVID so that's good.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们实时看到的一件事是食品价格通胀正在下降。我们看到鸡蛋出现通缩，以及一些在 COVID 期间让人们在负担能力方面非常痛苦的食品项目，所以这很好。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, but if you look at food prices today relative to where they were in, um, right before COVID they're still about 32% higher and so I think we're going to see more unwinding of food price inflation. Another reason, uh, inflation will go negative.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但如果你看看今天的食品价格相对于 COVID 之前的水平，它们仍然高出约 32%，所以我认为我们将看到食品价格通胀进一步缓解。这是通胀将变为负值的另一个原因。

章节 5：经济现状：制造业复苏与消费者的体感温差

📝 本节摘要：

Cathie Wood 分析了宏观经济数据的矛盾信号。她指出制造业 PMI 的回升可能标志着“滚动衰退”的结束，但消费者信心依然低迷，主要源于对就业和负担能力的担忧。她重点提到去年就业数据被大幅下修（减少 86.1 万人），并观察到 16-24 岁青年失业率的下降可能源于 AI 驱动的创业潮。此外，她对比了 CEO 与员工对 AI 提效感知的巨大差异，指出了消费者财务状况的恶化（如次贷汽车违约率飙升），并尖锐批评政府统计数据仍停留在“工业时代”，无法准确反映 AI 时代的生产力提升和真实的低通胀水平。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now here in terms of real activity, this is the ISM for manufacturing, it's the purchasing managers index, and you can see a nice bump here.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 现在来看看实体经济活动，这是制造业的 ISM 指数，也就是采购经理人指数，你可以看到这里有一个不错的反弹。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so we've characterized the last three years as a rolling recession. If you look at housing and, um, all of manufacturing in the United States below that 50, uh, percent, that, that basically indicating that manufacturing has been in a world of hurt even though we weren't technically in a recession like you've seen when it has been negative.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们把过去三年描述为“滚动衰退”（rolling recession）。如果你看看房地产，以及美国所有低于 50% 荣枯线的制造业，那基本上表明制造业一直深陷痛苦之中，尽管我们并没有像你在负增长时看到的那样在技术上陷入衰退。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, we were in a rolling recession and it looks like this is the first sign, uh, that that's changing. And the biggest change in this PMI was, um, uh, orders. So the new order index, uh, popped from roughly I think it was 47 meaning it had been declining, uh, to 54 and employment went up also.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们处于滚动衰退中，而这看起来是情况正在改变的第一个迹象。这个 PMI 最大的变化是订单。新订单指数从大约 47——意味着它一直在下降——突然跳升至 54，就业指数也上升了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now we don't have it in this package but another, uh, index came out not for manufacturing but for services and that showed both orders and employment, uh, less positive. I, I think, uh, both of them were still above 50 but barely above 50. Uh, so there are some puts and takes here.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们这个图表包里没有，但另一个指数发布了，不是制造业的，而是服务业的，它显示的订单和就业情况就不那么乐观。我认为它们仍都在 50 以上，但也只是勉强高于 50。所以这里有一些起伏和博弈。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, here is, uh, I don't know if you'd call this a put or a take but this is consumer sentiment, uh, University of Michigan. We focused on this a lot. The consumer is not a happy camper.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这里是……我不知道你会叫它利好还是利空，但这是密歇根大学的消费者信心指数。我们非常关注这个。消费者现在并不开心（not a happy camper）。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, and you can talk about GDP growth all you want, uh, and and highlight it as evidence and even the last employment report as evidence that all is well, um, but the consumer does not agree with that.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 你可以尽情谈论 GDP 增长，并将其作为证据，甚至把最新的就业报告作为一切良好的证据，但消费者并不认同这一点。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And, uh, most of the indexes, this one is the worst I think in terms of depicting, uh, consumer sentiment, but both most of them have been down and, uh, a lot of the the fear has been because of employment and affordability.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 大多数指数中，我认为这个指数在描述消费者情绪方面是最糟糕的（最低迷的），但大多数指数都在下跌，很多恐惧是源于就业和负担能力。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so you can't take that away from sentiment. Uh, even if it's changing at the margin, the consumer is still unhappy.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以你不能忽视这种情绪。即使边际上有所改变，消费者仍然不开心。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, this is one of the reasons. Look at what happened, uh, with the payroll revisions for all of last year. Uh, we got them this week. Payroll was revised down by 861,000 jobs.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这是原因之一。看看去年全年的薪资就业人数修正发生了什么。我们这周拿到了数据。就业人数被下修了 861,000 个岗位。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now think about that. You know, 75,000 per month, roughly 75, 80,000 per month. Uh, when a number of the prints were less than that when they were originally reported, so they would have been negative. And many of the the reports were you maybe a little above 100. Take 75, 80... last year was a very weak employment year.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 想想看。你知道，这相当于每月减少约 75,000 到 80,000 人。当时最初报告的一些数据甚至低于这个数字，所以修正后其实应该是负增长。而许多报告的数据可能只比 100（千）多一点。减去 75、80（千）……去年是一个就业非常疲软的年份。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now we know, and, uh, again legitimately the the, uh, consumer is fearful for, um, for for the, uh, sustainability of, uh, their own jobs and you can understand why.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 现在我们知道了，消费者理所当然地担心自己工作的可持续性，你可以理解为什么。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: But this is a piece of good news that came out of the last report. We've been featuring this 16 to 24 year old category, um, in in In The Know for quite some time because you can see that's where the the most severe unemployment rate increase has taken place.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但这是上一份报告中的一条好消息。我们在《In The Know》中关注 16 到 24 岁这个群体已经有一段时间了，因为你可以看到这是失业率上升最严重的群体。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And it was above 10%, in fact it was above 12%, but they revised that down and, uh, you can see, uh, that now we're below 10%.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 它曾超过 10%，事实上曾超过 12%，但他们下修了数据，你可以看到现在我们低于 10% 了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: What's going on here? Well, we think, well it could be the employment improving, it could be that, um, employment is a lagging indicator, but it also could be something that, uh, we we've mentioned a number of times and that is AI is becoming so powerful that, uh, individuals are able to just go out and build businesses now.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这里发生了什么？嗯，我们认为，可能是就业在改善，可能是就业是一个滞后指标，但也可能是我们提到过多次的事情：即 AI 正变得如此强大，以至于个人现在可以直接出去创业建立公司了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, and, uh, so we think a lot of entrepreneurial activity is happening. Uh, and, uh, you can see if you look at, um, new business activity meaning new business is starting up and we'll get that chart for the next, uh, In The Know, those are starting up nicely now.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以我们认为很多创业活动正在发生。如果你看新商业活动，也就是新公司的成立——我们在下一期《In The Know》会展示那个图表——现在起步势头很好。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: I mean they've been going up for a while so I think you know when when people are laid off or when they can't get entry level jobs they might become consultants as they're building their businesses and I do think we're going to see an entrepreneurial explosion and, um, we're very excited about that.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我的意思是它们已经上升了一段时间了，所以我认为当人们被解雇或找不到入门级工作时，他们可能会在建立自己的业务时成为顾问。我确实认为我们将看到创业活动的爆发，我们对此非常兴奋。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: You know we just saw a chart today and I I'll put this one in the in the no next, uh, next time too. Uh, if you ask CEOs, uh, how what percent of you are saving eight or more hours per week because of AI, uh, the answer is roughly 43%.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 你知道我们今天刚看到一张图表——我下次也会把它放进视频里——如果你问 CEO 们，你们中有多少比例的人因为 AI 每周节省了 8 小时或更多时间？答案大约是 43%。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: If you ask workers, uh, what percentage of you or if you do a survey you'll figure out that workers are saying that only 5% of them are saving, uh, eight or more hours a week.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 如果你问员工，或者做一个调查，你会发现员工说只有 5% 的人每周节省了 8 小时或更多时间。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, now what they could be doing is using AI and then enjoying free time as they, uh, have become so much more productive at their jobs. Um, but if we're going to see an explosion in entrepreneurial activity, uh, you're going to have a lot more CEOs looking for those efficiencies.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 他们可能正在做的是使用 AI，然后在工作效率大幅提高后享受空闲时间。但是，如果我们要看到创业活动的爆发，你将会看到更多的 CEO 寻求这些效率提升。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And so another reason we expect, uh, the proliferation of AI to increase productivity significantly. Um, just a few more charts on why the consumer is is, um, unsettled at best.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以这也是我们预期 AI 的普及将显著提高生产力的另一个原因。再看几张图表，解释为什么消费者充其量只能说是“局促不安”。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, saving rate. Some families are hand-to-mouth, they can't save anymore, uh, because of the affordability crisis especially as it relates to housing. Uh, they're delinquent on their auto loans.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 储蓄率。一些家庭只能勉强糊口（hand-to-mouth），他们存不下钱了，因为负担能力危机，特别是与住房有关的。他们的汽车贷款正在违约。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so the subprime, uh, is in purple and all and you can you can see where that is relative to 08-09. Again they're suffering.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 紫色的是次贷，你可以看到它相对于 08-09 年的位置。再次强调，他们正在受苦。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And I've said this before, uh, in the 08-09 they choose to default, uh, they chose to default on their home loans before they defaulted on their auto loans because there really was no Uber or Lyft back then. Uh, it's different today. So this may be why we're seeing auto delinquencies in a supposedly, uh, growth environment take off like this.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我以前说过，在 08-09 年，他们选择先违约住房贷款，再违约汽车贷款，因为那时候还没有 Uber 或 Lyft。今天不同了。所以这可能就是为什么我们在一个所谓的增长环境中看到汽车违约率如此飙升。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, here just to repeat a a chart that we've shown before. Uh, refunds, the big uptick starts this week and we think there's going to be a boom through, uh, through the end of March.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这里重申一张我们之前展示过的图表。退税，大幅增长从本周开始，我们认为这种繁荣将持续到三月底。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And that it is going to put, uh, money in the pockets of those who are now hand-to-mouth. They will be able maybe to lift their saving rate or or you know, uh, enjoy life a little bit more, uh, with some of this extra cash and so that's that's fabulous.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这将把钱放进那些现在勉强糊口的人的口袋里。他们也许能提高储蓄率，或者你知道，用这些额外的现金多享受一点生活，这太棒了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now existing home sales, this was a shocker. You know sometimes I I I I digest economic statistics every day, it's like I need my fix, and you know rarely am I surprised.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 现在的成屋销售，这真是一个令人震惊的数据。你知道有时我每天消化经济统计数据，就像我要过把瘾一样，你知道我很少感到惊讶。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: But to see this relapse and go back to to lows after the mortgage rate has dropped 90 basis points, I was just surprised.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但是看到在抵押贷款利率下降了 90 个基点之后，数据却复发并回落到低点，我真的很惊讶。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, and, uh, uh, the prices as I mentioned, uh, before, uh, continued month-to-month sequentially come down. Uh, taking the year-over-year, uh, price increase I think to only 0.9%. So, uh, it's interesting there's not enough confidence out there yet to go buy that house or interest rates aren't low enough or prices aren't low enough.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而且，正如我之前提到的，价格继续环比下降。我认为同比价格涨幅只有 0.9%。所以，有趣的是，目前还没有足够的信心去买房，或者利率不够低，或者价格不够低。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So we're going to see an adjustment and, uh, builders are, uh, incentivized to cut prices now and continue to subsidize mortgage rates to clear this inventory. It's not clearing. Uh, and so we think that's another reason prices are going to go down.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以我们将看到调整，建筑商现在有动力降价并继续补贴抵押贷款利率以清理库存。库存并没有出清。所以我们认为这是价格将下跌的另一个原因。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now we'll get into, uh, market indicators. Uh, and just one thing I'll say about, uh, the downward revision in employment before we leave the economic indicators is to give you a sense of how, um, messed up the government statistics are.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 现在我们要进入市场指标部分。在离开经济指标之前，关于就业数据的下修我只想说一件事，让你们感受一下政府的统计数据有多糟糕。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: How incorrect they are, how flawed they are because they were born in the industrial age and now we are not only in the digital age but the AI age. And it's just too much, uh, too much change they can't keep up with it because of how they structured the indexes.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 它们是多么不正确，多么有缺陷，因为它们诞生于工业时代，而现在我们不仅处于数字时代，而且处于 AI 时代。变化太大了，因为他们构建指数的方式，他们跟不上这些变化。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, so sorry if this gets a little esoteric but, uh, if employment really was much lower than initially reported, what that means for the GDP accounts... and the GDP accounts are more right than the employment indicators because there's another side to GDP, it's called national income and or gross national income.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 抱歉如果这听起来有点深奥，但如果就业人数真的比最初报告的要低得多，这对 GDP 账户意味着什么……GDP 账户比就业指标更准确，因为 GDP 有另一面，叫做国民收入或国民总收入。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And that is quite accurate in terms of money changing hands, sales that are reported out there, uh, wages that are reported out there, they're all from the tax records. So GDP equals national income. It's not perfect, there are statistical discrepancies.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这在资金转手、报告的销售额、报告的工资方面是相当准确的，它们都来自税务记录。所以 GDP 等于国民收入。它并不完美，存在统计误差。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So if you've lowered the employment number, what you're really saying is okay, there was much more productivity. Productivity was understated. That means real GDP growth was understated.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以如果你降低了就业数字，你实际上是在说，好吧，生产力其实更高。生产力被低估了。这意味着实际 GDP 增长被低估了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And it means inflation, this is the punchline, was way overstated. So inflation is much lower than is being reported. We believe it's probably much more in line with true inflation, below 1%, uh, than what we're seeing in the government statistics today.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这意味着通胀——这是点睛之笔（关键结论）——被严重高估了。所以通胀比报告的要低得多。我们相信它可能更符合 Trueflation 的数据（低于 1%），而不是我们今天在政府统计数据中看到的。

章节 6：市场信号：黄金、比特币与“忧虑之墙”

📝 本节摘要：

在访谈的最后部分，Cathie Wood 分析了关键的市场信号。她注意到黄金近期表现优于标普500，虽然这在70年代是危险信号，但她认为当前金价相对于 M2 货币供应量已经过高（"over its skis"）。相比之下，油价下跌对经济起到了类似减税的积极作用。

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关于比特币，她承认其近期因算法抛售和 ETF 带来的“弱手”清洗而表现不佳，但强调其长期上升趋势（Higher Lows）未被破坏，且 2017 年的高点构成了有力支撑。她还透露自己已担任 Layer Zero 的顾问，看好其支持“代理型 AI（Agentic AI）”时代每秒数百万笔交易的高吞吐量潜力。

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结尾处，她将当前市场环境类比为 1996 年（格林斯潘提出“非理性繁荣”之时）：与互联网泡沫时期的投机狂热不同，当今投资者带着过去崩盘留下的“伤疤组织”（Scar Tissue），在恐惧中攀越“忧虑之墙”。她认为这种谨慎反而为抓住 AI 这一“毕生最大机遇”创造了健康的牛市基础。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So now, uh, S&P we'll get to market indicators relative to gold. We're watching this one. It was such an important warning in the 70s that, you know, the, the S&P was, uh, was going to really have more than, I think from 66 to 82, it went nowhere. It went down, but it really went nowhere over that time.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那么现在，我们要来看看标普（S&P）相对于黄金的市场指标。我们正在关注这个指标。这在 70 年代是一个非常重要的警告信号，你知道，标普指数——我想是从 66 年到 82 年——真的没怎么动。它下跌了，但在那段时间里实际上是原地踏步。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And we certainly don't want to go into a period like that and we don't think we're going to, but we can't dismiss the fact that gold has been stronger than the S&P here, uh, even though the Dow Jones hit a record high.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们当然不想进入那样的时期，我们也不认为我们会，但我们不能忽视这样一个事实：尽管道琼斯指数创下了历史新高，但在此时黄金的表现比标普更强。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And I've heard that register with some people who are not in the market, uh, but to see this tick down is a little uncomfortable, I will say.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我听到一些未入市的人也注意到了这一点，但我得说，看到这个比率下降确实让人有点不舒服。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: But then, uh, we'll flip back to what's going on with the, o, oil price. Uh, S&P price to oil back in the 70s, uh, behave the same as S&P to gold. Uh, it's completely the opposite now.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但随后，我们再回头看看油价的情况。在 70 年代，标普对油价的比率走势与标普对黄金的比率是一样的。而现在完全相反。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And in fact this is more important because falling oil prices, uh, are the equivalent of a tax cut for consumers and businesses. Uh, so we're happy that this is diverging. We think it's an important divergence.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 事实上这更重要，因为油价下跌相当于对消费者和企业减税。所以我们很高兴看到这种背离。我们认为这是一个重要的背离。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And, uh, we do think, and I, I mentioned this in my last In The Know, that gold is over its skis. Uh, if you look at gold relative to M2, never been higher.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而且，我们确实认为——我在上一期《In The Know》中也提到过——黄金有点冲过头了（over its skis）。如果你看黄金相对于 M2 的比率，从未如此之高。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, it's higher now than it was even after the, the 70s where we ended up with double-digit inflation and in the Great Depression, uh, where the economy collapsed and gold was, uh, uh, gold was a source of safety until the government took it away.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 它现在比 70 年代之后还要高，当时我们最终出现了两位数的通胀；也比大萧条时期要高，当时经济崩溃，黄金是安全的来源，直到政府将其收走。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so, uh, so we will go with this one for now. And here is another, uh, we have to acknowledge that gold has way outperformed Bitcoin.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以，我们暂时会坚持这个观点。另外这里还有一点，我们必须承认黄金的表现远超比特币。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Bitcoin has gotten caught up in this risk off in a certain sense dynamic where, you know, you're getting wholesale, uh, drops in sectors. No, you know, sell now, ask questions later.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 比特币在某种意义上卷入了这种“避险”（risk-off）动态中，你会看到板块出现大规模的下跌。就是那种“现在卖出，以后再问问题”的情况。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: It's, uh, certainly happened in the SAS space, it's happened in the wealth management space, uh, it's happened in the trucking broker space.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这当然发生在 SaaS 领域，发生在财富管理领域，也发生在卡车经纪领域。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So this like, you know, algorithmic selling in the market, uh, definitely has hurt Bitcoin because many people are not looking at to it as a, a store of value the way they are looking to gold as a store of value and, and safety in a time of trouble.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以这种市场上的算法抛售绝对伤害了比特币，因为许多人并没有像看待黄金那样，把它看作是困难时期的价值存储和安全资产。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, now we don't understand that, um, because gold supply growth is, um, we believe accelerating. Bitcoin supply growth cannot accelerate.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们对此并不理解，因为我们认为黄金的供应增长正在加速。而比特币的供应增长是不可能加速的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, now quantum computing, we talked about that, we talked about all all the, uh, all of the worries, uh, that, um, are going around, uh, in the Bitcoin community especially as the ETFs have gotten involved.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 关于量子计算，我们讨论过那个，我们讨论过所有在比特币社区流传的担忧，特别是随着 ETF 的介入。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So we, we had newer holders, probably weaker holders and you know when they're confronted with those risks they'll again sell and ask questions later.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以我们有了新的持有者，可能是更脆弱的持有者（weaker holders），你知道当他们面对这些风险时，他们会再次先卖出，以后再问问题。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: You can see though that the uptrend higher lows in a major way, uh, sure we broke the one I guess from, uh, 24 but, uh, that, that uptrend general uptrend has not been broken, uh, and I don't think it will be broken.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 不过你可以看到，这种低点不断抬高（higher lows）的上升趋势在主要方面——当然我们可能跌破了 24 年的那条线——但那个总体上升趋势并没有被破坏，而且我不认为它会被破坏。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now could be famous last words but you know a lot of technicians are involved in the market right now, in fact that's all they're doing and it's astonishing to me that some of the people, um, that are so steeped in the research of Bitcoin and other crypto assets have defaulted to technical analysis as this move has taken place.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这可能是一句以后会被打脸的“临终遗言”（famous last words），但你知道现在很多技术分析师参与市场，事实上那是他们唯一在做的事。让我惊讶的是，一些深耕比特币和其他加密资产研究的人，在这一波动发生时，竟然也退回到只看技术分析。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Well if you're a technician look where we are now and you can see that's where we topped in 2017, uh, so that's kind of a marker.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 好吧，如果你是个技术派，看看我们现在的位置，你会看到这是我们在 2017 年见顶的位置，所以那算是一个标记。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: There's also some support you can see there in the 2022-23 range when Bitcoin was actually a refuge for those who were very scared of the regional bank crisis turning into a much broader financial crisis, uh, with counterparty risk a la 08-09. That cannot happen to Bitcoin.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 在 2022-23 年的区间你也看到一些支撑，当时比特币实际上是那些害怕区域性银行危机演变成更广泛金融危机的人的避难所——那种类似 08-09 年的交易对手风险。这种情况不会发生在比特币身上。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so and, and definitely I encourage people to self-custody if, if they want to hedge a bit, uh, uh, against counterparty risk because we do have the ETFs now, uh, involved in, um, in ownership.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以，我绝对鼓励人们进行自我托管（self-custody），如果他们想对冲一点交易对手风险的话，因为我们现在确实有 ETF 介入了所有权。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so it's been grueling, uh, but it's also been, uh, I, I don't love these periods because I worry about our clients. Um, we use these periods, we've been buying, uh, in, in the crypto space in our various strategies.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这段时期很折磨人，但我并不喜欢这些时期，因为我担心我们的客户。我们会利用这些时期，我们在各种策略中一直在加密领域进行买入。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, but, uh, that this is the time where you know you learn about everybody's fears and I described them in the last In The Know video and how we've addressed them.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但这也是你了解每个人恐惧的时候，我在上一期《In The Know》视频中描述了这些恐惧以及我们如何应对它们。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, but you learn, uh, about, uh, other, other, uh, developments in the crypto asset ecosystem. And, um, uh, I have just gotten involved, uh, in an advisory role with, uh, a company called Layer Zero.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 同时你也会了解到加密资产生态系统中的其他发展。我刚刚以顾问身份参与了一家名为 Layer Zero 的公司。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Which is trying from a DeFi point of view, uh, trying to go back to the future and not compromise the way, uh, the way Ethereum has and, and other, uh, blockchains with layer 2s and so forth, but actually go back to the future and develop an ecosystem for this new age, the agentic AI age.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 从去中心化金融（DeFi）的角度来看，它试图“回到未来”，不通过像以太坊和其他区块链使用的 Layer 2 等方式进行妥协，而是真正“回到未来”，为这个新时代——代理型人工智能（Agentic AI）时代——开发一个生态系统。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Where there's going to be a lot of, uh, activity you know machine to machine, uh, that can, uh, handle two to 4 million transactions per sec, uh, per second. Ethereum can only handle, uh, 13. Uh, Solana maybe 2,000.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 在这个时代会有大量的机器对机器（machine to machine）的活动，那需要每秒处理 200 万到 400 万笔交易。以太坊只能处理 13 笔。Solana 也许是 2000 笔。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so you know, it's very interesting, uh, that during tough times the builders in this community are heads down and so our research surfaces some of this new activity because or this new, uh, these new approaches, um, because, uh, they're, they're starting to talk more about them in the context of the way the DeFi ecosystem is currently set up.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以你知道，非常有趣的是，在艰难时期，这个社区的建设者们都在埋头苦干。我们的研究发掘了一些这样的新活动或新方法，因为他们开始更多地在当前 DeFi 生态系统设置的背景下讨论这些内容。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, so lots of learning and, uh, uh, I guess I'll conclude by, by saying, um, you know unlike the tech and telecom bubble, uh, this is the real deal. Unlike the tech and telecom bubble, people are scared to death.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以我们要学到了很多。我想最后总结一下，你知道，与科技和电信泡沫不同，这次是来真的（real deal）。与科技和电信泡沫不同的是，人们现在吓得要死。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: As a portfolio manager in the world of innovation, I would prefer fear and climbing a wall of worry than the speculative excesses that we saw in the tech and telecom bubble.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 作为创新领域的投资组合经理，我更喜欢恐惧和“攀越忧虑之墙”，而不是我们在科技和电信泡沫中看到的投机过度。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Now you might say AI is going through that, that's been part of the worry in the market. Uh, we don't think so. We, all the research we're doing, uh, would suggest that we are in the equivalent of 1996, uh, in, in the technology or the internet revolution that was taking place back then.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 现在你可能会说 AI 正在经历那个阶段，那是市场担忧的一部分。我们不这么认为。我们所做的所有研究都表明，我们正处于相当于 1996 年的阶段——对应当时正在发生的技术或互联网革命。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, very, very early and sure it went into overdrive, it went crazy, but in 1996 that was the year that, uh, Fed chairman Greenspan, um, talked about, uh, irrational exuberance.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 非常非常早期。当然，后来它进入了超速状态，变得疯狂。但在 1996 年，那是美联储主席格林斯潘谈论“非理性繁荣”的一年。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And you know that scared people because they thought he was going to tighten to curb speculation but effectively he said he wouldn't do that, he'd let the market work.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那吓坏了人们，因为他们以为他要收紧政策来遏制投机，但实际上他说他不会那样做，他会让市场自己运行。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And we all learned a lot of lessons, uh, because of, uh, what happened after that. And the scarred tissue, uh, in the market today because of that is happening, uh, or is here because those who, uh, have gone through the tech, who, who went through the tech and te telecom bubble are, are gray hairs in our business now.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 因为那之后发生的事情，我们都学到了很多教训。今天市场上存在的“伤疤组织”（scarred tissue）正是因此而生，或者说它就在这里，因为那些经历过科技和电信泡沫的人，现在已经是我们这个行业里的白发长者了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And they have that scar tissue muscle memory, whatever you want to call it, and they're saying as the most seasoned investors, I am going to protect, uh, my firm against this risk.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 他们有那种伤疤组织的肌肉记忆，不管你想叫它什么。他们作为最老练的投资者在说，我要保护我的公司免受这种风险。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And, um, I, I think that is what's keeping, uh, the fear and this wall of worry going. It's volatile, it can be uncomfortable, but just like last April, you know, uh, these can be very important opportunities to invest in the next big thing.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而我认为正是这一点维持了恐惧和这堵“忧虑之墙”。市场波动很大，可能让人不舒服，但就像去年四月一样，你知道，这些可能是投资“下一件大事”的非常重要的机会。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And, uh, we're ready for prime time. We can see the explosion in AI and we can all feel the ground shifting underneath us. And, uh, you know I can see and hear CEOs, you know, now saying oh my goodness, we have to do something about this.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们已经准备好迎接黄金时段了。我们可以看到 AI 的爆发，我们都能感觉到脚下的土地正在移动。而且，我能看到并听到 CEO 们现在都在说：天哪，我们必须对此做点什么。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So I think the momentum is going to continue building out there and the most important thing is to get on the right side of change. So with that I'll thank you and, uh, wish you a happy long weekend.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以我认为那里的势头将继续增强，最重要的是要站在变革的正确一侧。以此结束，谢谢大家，祝大家有一个愉快的长周末。