章节 1：投资成功的秘诀与哲学的形成

📝 本节摘要：

霍华德·马克斯开篇直击投资的核心——成功的秘诀并非仅仅是买入好资产，而是以低于其价值的价格买入。他回顾了自己撰写备忘录以及出版《投资最重要的事》一书的初衷，并指出投资是一项反直觉且极具挑战的任务，世上并不存在万能公式。通过分享自己早年在沃顿商学院、芝加哥大学的求学经历，以及因“觉得好玩”而误打误撞进入花旗银行开启投资生涯的趣事，马克斯强调：真正的投资哲学并非与生俱来，也不能仅靠书本或前人那里照搬，而是必须将个人经历与现实生活深度融合，经过不断反思与修正后演进的产物。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: how do you make money as an investor the people who don't know think the way you do it is by buying good assets a good building stock in a good company or something like that that is not the secret for Success the secret for success in investing is buying things for less than they're worth

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 作为一名投资者，你如何赚钱？那些不懂行的人认为，赚钱的方法就是买入好的资产——一栋好楼、一家优秀公司的股票之类的。但这并不是成功的秘诀。投资成功的秘诀是以低于其价值的价格买入资产（buying things for less than they're worth）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: as you know I wrote a book in uh 2011 called the most important thing and the reason it's has that title is because I would find myself in my client's office and I would say you know the most important thing in investing is controlling risk and then five minutes later I would say the most important thing is to buy at a low price and five minutes later I would say the most important thing is to act as a contrarian

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如你们所知，我在2011年写了一本书，名叫《投资最重要的事》（The Most Important Thing）。之所以取这个书名，是因为我常在客户的办公室里对他们说：“你们知道，投资中最重要的事情是控制风险（controlling risk）。”然后五分钟后我可能又会说：“最重要的事情是以低价买入。”接着过了五分钟我可能还会说：“最重要的事情是做一个逆向投资者（contrarian）”。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and so back in 203 I believe I wrote a memo called the most important thing I listed 19 things Each of which was the most important thing and then I used that I couldn't think of a better format for my book so I used the same format in uh 2011

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此，我想大概是在2003年，我写了一篇名为《最重要的事》的备忘录，我列出了19件事，每一件都是“最重要的事”。后来我发现我想不出比这更好的书籍排版格式了，所以我在2011年出书时也采用了相同的格式。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: interestingly some of the things are different and that you supposed to show you that that one's thinking should still be alive and should still evolve

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 有趣的是，其中一些内容发生了变化，这本应该向你们展示，一个人的思想应该保持活力，并且应该不断演进发展。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and I know that s Rob and some of the other fellow went to see Charlie Munger speak in Los Angeles this week at age 91 and uh I'm sure he's still evolving and uh and getting younger so I'm going to try to do the same now

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我知道索拉布（Saurabh）和其他几位朋友这周去洛杉矶听了查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）的演讲，他都91岁了。我确信他依然在不断进化，并且变得越来越年轻，所以我现在也要努力做到这一点。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I should tell you and I don't know if you know this but uh I ow I write memos to the clients and I'll refer to a lot of memos in in this session probably and they're all available on oakry capital.com website and the price is right they're all free

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我应该告诉你们——我不知道你们是否了解——我也会给客户写备忘录（memos），在今天的分享中我可能也会提到很多备忘录里的内容。它们都可以在橡树资本（Oaktree Capital）的官网上找到，而且价格很公道，全都是免费的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and so uh you know I've been sending them out now 25 years I started in 1990 and I got a letter from a a guy in named Warren Buffett in 2009 or 10 and he said if you'll write a book I'll give you quote for the jacket

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，你们知道，我已经发送这些备忘录长达25年了，我是从1990年开始写的。然后在2009年或2010年，我收到了一个名叫沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的人的来信，他说：“如果你愿意写一本书，我愿意为你的书封提供推荐语。”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and so I had been planning on writing a book when I retired from work but Buffett's promise uh caused me to accelerate uh my time frame and what the book is is who who here has read it okay about half

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我原本计划在退休后才写书，但巴菲特的承诺促使我加快了进度。至于这本书究竟写了什么……在座的各位有多少人读过？好的，大概一半。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so what the book is it's a recitation of my investment philosophy and as it says in the forward to the philosophy which I took the forward you know I never I don't know about you I never read the forwards of books but I took the forwards of Mind very seriously

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以这本书实际上是我投资哲学（investment philosophy）的详细陈述。正如在关于哲学的序言中所说的那样——我对待这篇序言非常认真。你们懂的，我从不……我不知道你们怎样，反正我从来不读别人书里的序言，但我对待自己书的序言非常当回事。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and what it says in there it's not the designed to to tell you how to make money and it's not designed to tell you how easy investment is or to try to make it easy and in fact my highest goal is probably to make it clear how hard it is

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 序言里写道，这本书并不是为了告诉你如何赚钱，也不是为了告诉你投资有多么容易，或者试图把投资变得容易。事实上，我的最高目标可能恰恰是向你们澄清：投资有多么艰难。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: investing is very difficult because it's it it's kind of counterintuitive and it it kind of turns back on itself all the time and there are no formulas that work

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 投资是非常困难的，因为它有点反直觉（counterintuitive），而且它总是不断发生自我反转，世上根本没有行之有效的公式（formulas）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so what I tried to do in the book book is teach people how to think and uh now the thoughts they should hold change from time to time but how to think I think is uh valid in the long term

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以我在书里试图做的是教人们“如何思考”。人们应当持有的具体想法会随着时间时常改变，但我认为“如何思考”的方式在长期来看始终是有效的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um so and I it's my investment philosophy and I wasn't born with an investment philosophy

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，这就是我的投资哲学。而且我并不是生来就拥有一套投资哲学的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I was you you'll hear from a lot of people if you're interested in investing who'll say well I started reading perspectives at age eight and I didn't uh or I you know at 13 I invested my bar mitzvah money which I didn't do

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果你对投资感兴趣，你会听到很多人这么说：“哎呀，我八岁就开始读招股说明书（prospectuses）了。”——我可没有。或者说：“你知道，我13岁的时候就拿我的受戒礼礼金（Bar Mitzvah money）去投资了。”——我也没这么做过。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but and in fact when I was getting out of graduate school age 23 in 1969 so I know you can all do the math I didn't know what I wanted to do

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 事实上，在1969年，我23岁从研究生院毕业时——我知道你们心里都能算出我多大年纪了——我根本不知道自己想干什么。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I had studied uh Finance at Wharton and accounting at uh Chicago and I knew I wanted to do something in finance but I had I wasn't very specific

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我在沃顿商学院（Wharton）学过金融，在芝加哥大学（Chicago）学过会计，我知道我想做一些与金融相关的工作，但我的目标并不是非常明确。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so I interviewed in five or six different fields uh large consulting firm small consulting firm accounting firm corporate treasury Investment Management Investment Banking six

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以我去面试了五六个不同的领域：大型咨询公司、小型咨询公司、会计师事务所、企业财务、投资管理、投资银行，一共六个。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so uh you know I ended up in the investment business why because I had had a summer job in ' 68 at city in the investment research Department I liked it had fun right that's a good reason so I went there

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 最后，你们知道的，我最终进入了投资行业。为什么呢？因为我在1968年夏天在花旗银行（Citibank）的投资研究部做过一份暑期工作。我喜欢那份工作，觉得很好玩，对吧？这确实是个好理由，所以我就去了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and by the way interestingly there was nothing magical about working in the investment business at that time it paid the same as all the rest all six jobs that I was offered had the same pay between 125 and 14 a year not a month

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 顺便说一句，有趣的是，当时在投资行业工作并没有什么神奇的光环，它的薪水和其他工作一样。我拿到的所有六份工作邀约薪水都一样，大概在一年 12,500 到 14,000 美元之间——是一年，不是一个月。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and and uh and uh you know and there were no famous investors at the time investing was not a household word there were no investment TV shows uh and uh so I just did it because I liked it I liked the people and I thought that the that the investing was intellectually interesting

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且，你们知道，当时并没有什么著名的投资者，“投资”也不是一个家喻户晓的词，更没有关于投资的电视节目。所以我做这一行只是因为我喜欢它，我喜欢那里的同事，而且我认为投资在智力层面上非常有趣。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um so I wasn't I didn't have a philosophy then when I started and that I had some things I had learned in school but I think that your philosophy your philosophy as opposed to somebody you know if you if studi decart or lock or somebody like that you learn his philosophy if you might learn a philosophy by studying a religion but that's not your philosophy

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，在我刚起步的时候，我并没有一套投资哲学。我确实有一些在学校里学到的东西，但我认为“你的”哲学——属于你自己的哲学，不同于其他人。你们知道，如果你研究笛卡尔（Descartes）或洛克（Locke）或类似的人，你学到的是他的哲学。你也许可以通过研究宗教来学习一种哲学，但这并非“你的”哲学。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: your philosophy will come from the combination of what you have been taught by your teachers and parents and your experiences and what your experiences tell you about the things you were taught and how they have to be modified

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你的哲学将来源于一种结合：你的老师和父母教给你的东西，以及你的个人经历，再加上你的经历如何告诉你，你曾学过的东西需要如何被修正。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so I developed uh My Philosophy over you know I it might seem like I started writing the mamals a long time ago 25 years but I had been working already over two decades at that time so I think that the integration of real life into philosophy is essential

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以我逐渐发展出了我的哲学，你们知道，可能看起来我很早以前就开始写备忘录了，25年前，但其实那时候我已经工作了超过二十年了。所以我认为，将现实生活融入哲学之中是必不可少的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now my I prepared a few slides for today and basically the slides are here to illustrate where the philosophy came from talk to you about some of the foundations and Roots so I call it Origins and Inspirations and I hope you'll find it interesting

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在，我为今天准备了几张幻灯片，这些幻灯片基本上是为了阐述这套哲学是从何而来的，和你们聊聊它的一些基础和根源。所以我将其称之为“起源与灵感”（Origins and Inspirations），希望你们会觉得有趣。

章节 2：灵感来源一——塔勒布与“随机性”

📝 本节摘要：

霍华德·马克斯分享了他投资哲学的第一个重要灵感来源——塔勒布的《随机漫步的傻瓜》。他深刻剖析了“随机性”与“运气”在投资结果中扮演的关键角色，指出真实世界并不像物理定律那样精确且具有决定性。马克斯强调，“应该发生”并不等于“将会发生”，投资者不能仅仅根据结果的好坏来反推决策的正确与否。更重要的是，在面对概率分布的不确定性时，仅仅追求“期望值”最高是不够的，投资者必须始终警惕那些无法承受的极端风险，确保自己能在“平均水位”以下的糟糕日子里活下来，才能等来决策被证明正确的那一天。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so first of all uh uh not in order chronologically but hopefully in order to try to make something intelligible uh Fooled by Randomness by Nasim Nicholas TB now I who here has read that all right more people than have read my book uh and uh I think it's very important I think it's a excellent book uh with very very important ideas

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以首先——虽然不是按时间顺序，但希望能让大家理清一些脉络——是纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）的《随机漫步的傻瓜》（Fooled by Randomness）。现在我想问问在座各位，有多少人读过这本书？好的，读过这本的人比读过我那本书的人还多。我认为这非常重要，我认为这是一本极好的书，其中包含了非常、非常重要的思想。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now don't tell nasm I tell I I said this but I tell all the people I speak to that it is easy it is either the most important badly written book or the worst written very important book that you'll ever read uh I I think it's not very clear and I think it's uh not uh well maybe there's no attempt to make it clear uh but I think a lot of the ideas are very important and uh even profound in my opinion

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 请别告诉纳西姆我说过这话，但我对每一个跟我交谈的人都说，它要么是你读过的最重要但写得最烂的书，要么是你读过的写得最烂但极其重要的书。我认为它表达得不是很清晰，或者说……好吧，也许作者根本没打算把它写得通俗易懂。但在我看来，书中的许多思想都非常重要，甚至可以说是意义深远。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so among other thing and and the basic theme is that in investing there's a lot of Random and if you look at investing as a field without Randomness where everything where everything is determinative you'll get confused because you will not draw the proper uh inferences from what you see

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么，除了其他内容之外，这本书的基本主题是：在投资中存在着大量的随机性（Randomness）。如果你把投资看作是一个没有随机性、一切都是决定性（determinative）的领域，你就会感到困惑，因为你将无法从你所看到的事物中得出正确的推论。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: for example just a brief example you see somebody and they report a great return for the year the science the the scientist who thinks that the world that that the investment world runs like the world of physics might think well great return that means the guy's a great investor but in truth it it might be somebody who took a crazy shot and got lucky why because there's a lot of Randomness in the world

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 举个简短的例子，你看到某人报告了今年获得了极高的回报。那些认为投资世界像物理世界一样运转的科学家可能会想：“嗯，回报这么高，说明这家伙是个伟大的投资者。” 但实际上，这可能只是某人豪赌了一把并且走运了。为什么会这样？因为这个世界充满了太多的随机性。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: when I went to Warden 1963 the first book I remember learning was called decision making under uncertainty by C Jackson Grayson who became as I recall America's First Energy are and uh I learned a couple of important things from that book number one that you can't tell from an outcome whether a decision was good or bad it's very important most people don't understand this totally totally counterintuitive

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 1963年我去沃顿商学院的时候，我记得学习的第一本书叫做《不确定性下的决策》（Decision Making Under Uncertainty），作者是 C·杰克逊·格雷森（C. Jackson Grayson），如果我没记错的话，他后来成为了美国第一任能源总管。我从那本书里学到了几件重要的事情。第一点是，你不能仅仅根据结果来判断一个决策是好是坏。这非常重要，大多数人并不理解这一点，这完全、彻底地违背直觉。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but the truth is in the real world where there's Randomness at work I mean if you build a bridge and it falls down then you must assume that the engineer made a mistake that it was a bad decision to build the bridge that way but in the in the real world of where where every where there's Randomness good decisions fail to work all the time bad decisions work all the time

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但事实是，在这个充满随机性且随机性在起作用的现实世界里……我的意思是，如果你建了一座桥，然后桥塌了，你肯定会认为是工程师犯了错，以那种方式建桥是个糟糕的决定。但在充满随机性的真实世界里，好的决策常常无法奏效，而糟糕的决策却常常能行得通。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the investment business is full of people who are quote right for the wrong reason made this a bad decision it didn't work out the way they thought but they got lucky and they were bailed out by events so this is very important and this is the the basic theme of uh of Fooled by Randomness tb's first book

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 投资行业里到处都是那些所谓的“因错误的理由而做对”（right for the wrong reason）的人。他们做出了糟糕的决定，事情并没有按照他们设想的那样发展，但他们运气好，被突发事件给拯救了。所以这非常重要，这也是塔勒布第一本书《随机漫步的傻瓜》的基本主题。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: since then he has written uh the Black Swan which became more famous but I don't think it's as good a book and he's written a book called antifragile and uh uh that one didn't get famous um but I think that this book is something everybody should read it if you have an interest in numbers investing and how the world works

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 从那以后，他又写了《黑天鹅》（The Black Swan），这本书名气更大，但我认为它不如前一本好。他还写了一本叫《反脆弱》（Antifragile）的书，那本并不怎么出名。但我认为，《随机漫步的傻瓜》是每个对数字、投资以及世界如何运转感兴趣的人都应该去读的书。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so it's as I say the book is all about the role played by luck and uh basically uh even if you know what's most likely many other things can happen instead this is very very important we talked uh earlier at lunch about what's the most important lesson you can draw well of course I can't I'll never say most important to anything but one very important lesson for for you to learn is that you should not act as if the things that should happen are the things that will happen

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以正如我所说，这本书完全是关于运气所扮演的角色。基本上，即使你知道最可能发生什么，许多其他事情也可能会取而代之发生，这非常非常重要。我们在早些时候吃午饭时谈论了你能吸取的最重要的教训是什么。好吧，当然我永远不会说什么事情是“最重要”的，但有一个你需要学习的非常重要的教训是：你绝不应该表现得仿佛“应该发生的事情”（the things that should happen）就是“将会发生的事情”（the things that will happen）。

[原文] [Video Host / Ad]: hey everyone I just wanted to jump in here real quick and say that if you're enjoying this video you should download this completely free pdf at the link in the description because it contains 525 pages of Howard Mark's legendary investment memos I compiled these memos just for you as my thank you for supporting the channel thank you for all that you do and now back to the video

[译文] [视频插播]: 嘿，大家好，我只是想在这里快速插播一下。如果你喜欢这个视频，你应该在描述的链接中下载这份完全免费的PDF文件，因为它包含了525页霍华德·马克斯的传奇投资备忘录。我专门为你们整理了这些备忘录，作为感谢你们支持这个频道的礼物。感谢你们所做的一切，现在回到视频内容。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: again in the world of the physical sciences you can probably bet that that's true and the electrical engineer knows that if he turns on a light switch over here the light will go on there every time because it's subject to physics not in the world of investing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 重申一次，在物理科学的世界里，你也许可以打赌那是真的。电气工程师知道，如果他在这里打开电灯开关，那边的灯每次都会亮起，因为这受物理学定律的支配。但这在投资世界里行不通。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and so uh for every possible phenomenon there is there is a a range of things that can happen there may be one where it's possible to discern which one is the most like and if we draw a probability distribution that may be the highest point on the distribution the most likely single outcome but that doesn't mean it's going to happen

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此，对于每一个可能的现象，都会有一系列可能发生的情况（a range of things that can happen）。其中可能会有一个是你能够辨别出最可能发生的情况。如果我们要画一个概率分布图（probability distribution），那可能会是分布曲线上的最高点，即最可能的单一结果。但这并不意味着它就一定会发生。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and the reason we the reason we don't have many probability distributions that look like this but rather that look like this is because a range of things can happen and it's very very important to notice that number one there are lots of things that can happen so you have to allow for them and number two the thing that is most likely to happen is is far from sure to happen and we and so uh that's that's very that's very key

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 为什么我们不常看到长成“这样”的概率分布，而是长成“那样”的？原因就在于有各种各样的情况都可能发生。注意到以下两点非常、非常重要：第一，可能会发生的事情有很多，所以你必须为它们留出余地（allow for them）；第二，那件最可能发生的事情，远远不能保证它就一定会发生。这非常、非常关键。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: there's a professor at the London Business School who put it succinctly he said risk means more things can happen than will happen and uh this is again this is profound in my opinion

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 伦敦商学院（London Business School）的一位教授对这一点做了极其简明的概括，他说：风险意味着可能发生的事情，比实际将会发生的事情要多（risk means more things can happen than will happen）。在我看来，这再次展现了一种深刻的洞察。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um in the economic world people generally make their decisions based on something called expected value which is to say that you multiply every possible outcome first of all of course you don't think in terms of a single outcome you think in terms of a range of outcomes

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 在经济世界中，人们通常会基于一种叫做“期望值”（expected value）的东西来做决定。也就是说，你要把每一个可能的结果乘起来……当然，首先你不能只从单一结果的角度去思考，你必须从一系列可能结果的角度去思考。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so you take every if you could if you could iterate over so many you take every possible outcome you multiply it by the likelihood that it will happen you sum the results and then you get something called the expected value from that course of action and you choose your course of action based on the highest expected value and that sounds like tot totally rational thing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以你取每一个可能的结果——如果你能迭代穷举出那么多的话——你把每一个可能的结果乘以它发生的可能性（likelihood），然后把所有的结果相加，接着你就会得到该行动方案的所谓的“期望值”。然后你根据最高期望值来选择你的行动方案。这听起来似乎是一件完全理性的事情。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but what if the course of action that you're considering has some outcomes that you absolutely can't withstand then you may not do it you may not do the highest expected value course of action because it has some you can't live with

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但如果你正在考虑的这个行动方案，它包含了某些你绝对无法承受的结果呢？ 那么你可能就不会去做了。你可能不会选择那个具有最高期望值的行动方案，因为它潜藏着一些你无法承受的后果。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you know who here is willing to be uh you know uh the the sky diver who was right 98% of the time you know for example so you may elect to do bike riding on the SCH campus rather than skydiving even though skydiving is more exhilarating uh 98% of the time anyway

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你们知道，在座的各位谁愿意成为那个，那个98%的时间都能跳对的跳伞运动员？ 所以举例来说，你可能会选择在校园里骑自行车，而不是去跳伞。尽管在98%的时间里，跳伞显然更令人兴奋。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so the point is uh it as I lived my life from Talking learning about Dimson learning about TB from learning from my own experience I realized that should is does not equal will lots of things that should happen fail to happen and even if they don't fail to happen they fail to happen on schedule ual

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以关键点在于，随着我经历人生的种种——从交谈中学习，学习埃尔罗伊·迪姆森（Elroy Dimson）的理论，学习塔勒布的理论，从我自己的经验中学习——我意识到，“应该”（should）并不等于“将会”（will）。许多“应该发生”的事情根本没有发生；即使它们确实发生了，它们也未能如期发生（fail to happen on schedule）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so the thing that the that the economist or the finer thinks should happen this year may happen in 3 years you got to live three years to see it happen

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，经济学家或金融从业者认为今年“应该发生”的事情，可能会在三年后才发生。你必须得先活过这三年，才能看到它的发生。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: one of my favorite sayings is never forget the six- foot tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was 5 feet deep on average we can't live by the averages we can't say well I'm I'm happy to survive on average we got to survive on the bad days you got to survive

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我最喜欢的一句谚语是：“永远不要忘记那个身高六英尺，却在平均水深五英尺的河里淹死的人。” 我们不能靠平均数来生活，我们不能说：“好吧，只要平均下来我能活命就很开心了。” 我们必须得在那些糟糕的日子里活下来，你必须得生存下去。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and and if you're a decision maker you have to survive long enough for the correctness of your decision to be become evidence and you can't count on it happening right away I always remind people overpriced is not the same as going down tomorrow and if you bear that simple truth in mind I think it helps so so to Leb and the role of luck very important

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果你是一个决策者，你必须存活足够长的时间，直到你的决策被证明是正确的，并且你不能指望这一切会立刻发生。我总是提醒人们：“价格过高”（overpriced）并不等同于“明天就会下跌”。如果你能牢记这个简单的真理，我认为会对你大有裨益。所以，塔勒布以及运气的角色，非常重要。

章节 3：灵感来源二——加尔布雷斯与“预测的无用性”

📝 本节摘要：

马克斯分享了他的第二个投资灵感来源：著名经济学家约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷斯。他借用加尔布雷斯的名言直击痛点：世上只有两类预测者——一类是无知的，另一类是不知道自己无知的。马克斯深入剖析了宏观经济预测为何在投资中毫无用处：大多数准确的预测仅仅是基于现状的“外推”，由于这种预期早已被市场计入资产价格，所以根本无法转化为利润；而那些预言市场剧变的“偏离性预测”虽然一旦命中回报丰厚，但极难长期保持准确。最终结论是：既然我们无法预知未来，且随机性无处不在，依赖宏观预测进行投资不仅徒劳，且充满危险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: then John Kenneth GTH John Kenneth GB for those of you who are not familiar with ancient history was an economist American Economist uh died uh around 05 I think maybe a little after and uh at the age of about 98 and he was my one of my favorites

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 接着是约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷斯（John Kenneth Galbraith，原文口误为GTH/GB）。对于你们当中不熟悉这段“古代历史”的人来说，约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷斯是一位经济学家，一位美国经济学家。他大概在2005年左右去世的，可能稍微晚一点，享年大约98岁，他是我最喜欢的人物之一。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: he was he was uh a little on on the left side uh he was you know somewhere between free enterprise and socialism but um he was what you what we call the liberal in the days when when that word when it was okay to say that word

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他的立场有一点偏左，你们知道的，他介于自由企业制度和社会主义之间，但……他就是我们在那个年代所说的“自由主义者”（liberal），在那个说这个词还没什么忌讳的年代。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um but he was he was very very smart and he was not a he was not famous as an economist but he was a he played a lot of roles in government and he was a diplomat but he wrote some very good books and one of them is called uh a short history of financial Euphoria

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，但他非常、非常聪明，而且作为经济学家他并没有那么出名，不过他在政府中扮演了很多角色，他还是一名外交官。但他写了一些非常好的书，其中一本叫做《金融狂热简史》（A Short History of Financial Euphoria）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and uh I like thin books so and his is his is thin especially the ones he wrote in the last decade or two of his life were very thin so I enjoyed those but but the short history is very good and I recommend that to you

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 呃，我喜欢薄一点的书，而他的书就很薄，尤其是他在生命最后十到二十年里写的那些书都非常薄，所以我很喜欢那些书。但这本《简史》非常棒，我向你们推荐它。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um and one of the things he says is we have two classes of forecasters the ones who don't know and the ones who don't know they don't know

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，他在书中提到的一点是，我们有两类预测者（forecasters）：一类是无知的人（the ones who don't know），另一类是不知道自己无知的人（the ones who don't know they don't know）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now I don't believe in forecasts uh macro forecasts people who forecast interest rates performance of economies performance of stock markets and I don't think that my efforts to be a superior investor and most other people's are aided by macro forecasts

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如今我不再相信预测了，呃，我是指宏观预测（macro forecasts），就是那些预测利率、经济表现、股市表现的人。而且我不认为我努力成为一名卓越投资者的过程，或者大多数其他人，会从宏观预测中得到什么帮助。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so am I saying that that the F forecaster is never right no I'm not saying that the forecasters are often right

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么，我是在说预测者从来都没对过吗？不，我没有这么说，预测者们通常是对的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: last year GDP grew 2% many forecasters forecast that GDP will grow this year at 2% that's called extrapolation and usually in economics extrapolation Works usually the future looks like the recent past so usually the people who forecast a continuation of of the current are right

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 去年GDP增长了2%，许多预测者预测今年的GDP也将增长2%。这就叫“外推法”（extrapolation）。通常在经济学中，外推法是行得通的。通常未来看起来会和最近的过去很像，所以通常那些预测现状会延续下去的人是对的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the only problem is they don't make any money because let's take let's take the economy most people forecast two something for this year a growth rate of two something is cooked into the prices of Securities today

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 唯一的问题是，他们根本赚不到任何钱。因为，让我们以经济为例，大多数人预测今年的增长率是百分之二点几。这个百分之二点几的增长率，今天已经被计入了证券的价格中（cooked into the prices of Securities）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: if the growth rate turns out to be to something everybody who forecasted that will be right but the secur but security prices will not change much because that to something grow both was anticipated and discounted a year or two ago so uh all those people who are right won't make any money our forecast

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果最终的增长率真的是百分之二点几，那么每一个做出这样预测的人都将是对的。但是证券价格并不会有太大变化，因为这种百分之二点几的增长早在一年或两年前就已经被预期（anticipated）并贴现（discounted）了。所以，呃，所有这些猜对的人都无法从我们的预测中赚到任何钱。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so that's a that's a that's a correct so most forecasts most extrapolation works all the time forecasts that are extrapolations work all the time but they don't make any money

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以这是一个……这是一个正确的事实。大多数预测，大多数外推法一直都有效；作为外推法延伸的预测一直都有效，但它们赚不到钱。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: logically am I saying that forecasting that forecasts never make any money no the forecasts that make money are the forecasts of radical change

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 从逻辑上讲，我是在说预测……所有的预测都永远赚不到任何钱吗？不。能够赚到钱的预测，是关于剧变（radical change）的预测。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: if if I predict if everybody's predicting 2.4% growth for this year and if it turns out if I predict minus two and it turns out to be minus two or I predict six and it turns out to be six I'll make a lot of money

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果……如果我预测……如果每个人都预测今年有2.4%的增长，而如果结果是……如果我预测负2%，而结果真的是负2%；或者我预测6%，结果真的是6%，我将会赚一大笔钱。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so forecasts which are not extrapolations forecasts which are radically different from the recent past are potentially very valuable if they correct

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，那些非外推法的预测，那些与近期过去截然不同的预测，如果它们是正确的，将具有极高的潜在价值。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: of course they're not of any value if they're incorrect if they're incorrect they'll they'll cost you a lot of money

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当然，如果它们是不正确的，那它们就没有任何价值。如果它们是不正确的，它们将会……它们将会让你损失一大笔钱。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: if if everybody else thinks it's going to be 2 four and you predict six and it turns out at 2 four you're probably going to have taken the wrong Investments and lost a lot of money

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果……如果其他所有人都认为是2.4%，而你预测是6%，结果最后真的是2.4%，你很可能已经进行了错误的投资（Investments），并且损失了大量的金钱。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so deviant forecasts which turn out to be right are po potentially very valueable but it's very hard to make them it's very hard to make them correctly it's very hard to make them correctly consistently

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此，那些最终被证明是正确的偏离性预测（deviant forecasts）具有极其高昂的潜在价值。但问题是极难做出这样的预测，极难正确地做出它们，更极难“持续地”正确做出它们。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and uh uh somebody at lunch mentioned an early memo I wrote called the value of forecasts and uh in one of there was the value of forecast and then there was value of forecasts two I think right

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且，呃，呃，午餐时有人提到了我早期写的一篇备忘录，名叫《预测的价值》（The Value of Forecasts）。呃，在那其中……有一篇叫《预测的价值》，然后还有一篇叫《预测的价值 II》，我想是吧。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and in one of those I reviewed the history recent history of the Wall Street Journal poll every six months the Wall Street Journal uh publishes the results of a poll of economists and uh on you know GDP growth CPI value of a dollar price of oil whatever it might be a bunch of phenomena

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 在其中一篇里，我回顾了《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）调查的历史……最近的历史。每六个月，《华尔街日报》就会，呃，发布一项针对经济学家的民意调查结果，呃，关于你们知道的，GDP增长、CPI（消费者物价指数）、美元价值、石油价格等等一系列现象。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: they do it consistently and they they ask like 30 people consistently over time

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他们一直坚持这么做，而且随着时间的推移，他们总是去问同样的差不多30个人。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and uh so it shows basically that most of the time when people get it right it's because they predicted extrapolation and nothing changed

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且，呃，所以这基本上表明，大多数时候，当人们预测正确时，那是因为他们预测了外推（extrapolation），而什么都没有改变。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: once in a while something changes radically and invariably somebody predicted it but the problem is if you look at that person's other forecasts over the years you see that that person always made radical forecasts and never was right any other time

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 偶尔，某些事物发生了剧烈的变化，并且总是有人能预测到它。但问题是，如果你去看看那个人这些年来的其他预测，你会发现那个人总是做出极端的预测（radical forecasts），而且在任何其他时候都没对过。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so of course if you if you're getting your information from a forecaster the fact that he was right once doesn't tell you anything

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以理所当然的，如果……如果你从一个预测者那里获取信息，他曾经对过一次的这个事实说明不了任何问题。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you you wouldn't the the views of that forecaster would not be of any value to you unless he was right consistently and nobody's right consistently in making DV in forecasts

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你……你不会……那个预测者的观点对你来说没有任何价值，除非他能持续地预测正确，但在这个世界上，没有人能在做出偏离共识的预测（deviant forecasts）时持续正确。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so uh so the bottom line for me is that forecasting is not valuable uh and uh that's something that my experience has told me

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，呃，所以对我来说底线是：预测没有价值。呃，而且，呃，这是我的经验告诉我的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so we we don't know what's going to happen and Randomness will play a big role in what happens and Randomness is by definition unpredictable

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此我们……我们根本不知道将会发生什么，而随机性（Randomness）将在发生的事情中扮演重大的角色，并且随机性按照定义就是不可预测的（unpredictable）。

章节 4：灵感来源三——查理·埃利斯与“输家的游戏”

📝 本节摘要：

霍华德·马克斯介绍了他的第三个灵感来源——查理·埃利斯的《输家的游戏》。他通过西蒙·拉莫（Simon Ramo，TRW的创始人之一）关于网球比赛的精彩类比，揭示了职业选手与业余选手在获胜策略上的本质区别：职业选手靠击出“制胜球”（赢家的游戏）获胜，而业余选手则靠避免“主动失误”（输家的游戏）获胜，即只要把球安全击回网对面，等待对手犯错即可。马克斯认为，鉴于市场具有一定的有效性和随机性，普通投资者很难像职业网球选手那样持续做出完美的预判与操作。因此，在投资领域，采取防守型策略、专注于避免犯错（不击出“输家球”），往往比一味追求高回报的“制胜球”更为重要且实际。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: number three the losers game by Charlie Ellis this is very interesting uh anybody here know the name of the company TRW few people

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第三点，查理·埃利斯（Charlie Ellis）的《输家的游戏》（The Loser's Game）。这非常有趣。在座的有谁知道一家叫 TRW 的公司吗？没几个人。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: TR W used to be a big conglomerate uh and now it's known primarily for credit scores and uh there was a guy named Sao he was the r it was it was Thompson Ramo Woolridge and he was the r in TRW and very smart and Sao wrote a book and uh it was about uh winning at tennis who here plays tennis okay this is good because as I go around the world now very few people play tennis anymore

[译文] [Howard Marks]: TRW 曾经是一个庞大的企业集团，呃，现在它主要以信用评分而闻名。呃，那里有一个叫西蒙·拉莫（Simon Ramo，注：发音近似Sao）的人，他是其中的“R”——公司全称是汤普森·拉莫·伍尔德里奇（Thompson Ramo Wooldridge），他是 TRW 里的那个“R”，非常聪明。拉莫写了一本书，呃，是关于呃如何在网球比赛中获胜的。在座的谁打网球？好的，这很好，因为现在我在世界各地走动时，发现打网球的人越来越少了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but what Deo said is that there are two kinds of winning tennis players if you look at Pete Sampras or Nadal or jokovic how do they win the winning Champion tennis player wins by hitting winning shots he hits shots that the opponent can't return they're either so well placed or so strategic or so fast and hard that the opponent can't return

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但拉莫所说的是，获胜的网球选手有两种。如果你看看皮特·桑普拉斯（Pete Sampras）或纳达尔（Nadal）或德约科维奇（Djokovic），他们是如何获胜的？冠军级别的网球选手是通过击出“制胜球”（winning shots）来获胜的。他击出的球让对手无法回击，这些球要么落点极佳，要么极具策略性，要么速度极快且力量极大，以至于对手根本接不到。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and if Nadal hits a shot which is not a potential winner then his opponent can probably put it away because it doesn't have enough difficulty on the ball so the the championship tennis player wins by hitting winners

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果纳达尔击出的球不具备成为制胜球的潜力，那么他的对手很可能会直接得分，因为那个球的难度不够大。所以，冠军级别的网球选手是靠击出制胜球（winners）来赢下比赛的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you play tennis right how do you win do you win sometimes how do you win if I win it's by not hitting it out it's that's right the amateur tennis player like him and me we win not by hitting winners but by avoiding hitting losers

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你打网球，对吧？你是怎么赢的？你有时候会赢吗？你是怎么赢的？“如果我赢了，那是因为我没有把球打出界。”——没错，像他和我这样的业余网球选手，我们赢球不是靠击出制胜球，而是靠避免击出“输家球”（losers，即失误球）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and we believe that if we can just push it back 20 times and just get it over the net 20 times our opponent can only do it 19 we believe that that we'll out steady him Outlast him and eventually he'll hit it into the net or off the court we'll win the point but we'll win the point without having hit a winner

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们相信，只要我们能把球推回去 20 次，只要能把球越过球网 20 次，我们的对手就只能做到 19 次。我们相信我们能比他更稳定，耗死他，最终他会把球打下网或者打出界。这样我们就赢了这一分，但我们在赢下这一分时，并没有击出任何制胜球。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so they're obviously two styles of tennis and so same is true for investing and uh so Charlie Ellis wrote an article called The Losers game and he said he thought that in investing so championship tennis is a Winner's game it's won by winners he thought amateur tennis is a losers game it's won by the people who avoid being losers he thought that Charlie thinks or thought that investing is a loser game

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以显然，存在两种风格的网球比赛，而投资也是如此。呃，所以查理·埃利斯写了一篇名为《输家的游戏》的文章。他说他认为在投资中……冠军网球赛是一场“赢家的游戏”（Winner's game），是由击出制胜球的人赢下的；他认为业余网球赛是一场“输家的游戏”（losers game），是由那些避免成为输家的人赢下的。他认为，查理认为或者曾认为，投资就是一场输家的游戏。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and so the best way to win at tennis is by at investing is by not hitting losers

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此，在网球中获胜的最好方式……在投资中获胜的最好方式，就是不要击出“输家球”。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now I believe also that it's a losers game not as much as Charlie believes and not for the same reason Charlie believes that that investing is a losers game uh because the market is efficient and securities are priced right

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如今我也相信这是一场输家的游戏。虽然不像查理相信的程度那么深，也不是出于同样的原因。查理认为投资是一场输家的游戏，呃，是因为市场是有效的（efficient），且证券的定价是正确的（priced right）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I believe there are inefficiencies I just think it's hard to consistently take advantage of them and you have to be an exceptional person to take advantage of them on a consistent basis

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我相信市场中存在无效性（inefficiencies）。我只是认为很难持续地利用这些无效性，而且你必须是一个极其出色的人，才能在持续的基础上（on a consistent basis）利用它们。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and uh uh you know the reason that the pro can go for winners is because he is so well schooled and practiced and steady and talented that he knows that if he does this with his foot and this with his hip and this with his elbow and this with his wrist that the bull will go where he wants he doesn't worry about miscues uh wind sun in his eyes uh distraction he's so well schooled

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且，呃，呃，你知道，职业选手之所以能去追求制胜球，是因为他受过极好的训练，身经百战，稳定且充满天赋，以至于他知道，如果他这样移动脚，这样扭动臀部，这样摆动手肘，这样使用手腕，球（原文口误为bull）就会飞到他想要的地方。他不用担心失误，呃，不用担心风，不用担心阳光刺眼，呃，不用担心分心。他受的训练太好了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um and in fact you know in in in scoring tennis match match is they keep track of something called unforced errors and the reason they keep track of them is because there are so few the pro doesn't make a lot of unforced Errors we make unforced errors all the time and so we have in order to survive we have to avoid them

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 呃，事实上，你知道的，在网球比赛的计分中，他们会记录一种叫做“非受迫性失误”（unforced errors）的数据。他们之所以记录这个，是因为它太少了。职业选手不会犯很多非受迫性失误，而我们却无时无刻不在犯非受迫性失误。所以为了生存，我们必须避免犯这些失误。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so the point is if you're going to be an investor you have to decide am I good enough to go for winners or should I emphasize the avoidance of losers in my Approach

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以关键在于，如果你要成为一名投资者，你必须做出决定：我是否足够优秀，可以去追求“制胜球”？还是我应该在我的策略中，把重点放在“避免失误”（avoidance of losers）上？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and then the fourth input uh oh so I I I say here that the difficulty of getting it right is what makes defensive investing so important because it's just for us in investing especially because there's Randomness if we do the right thing with our foot and hip and arm and elbow we're not going to get a winner every time

[译文] [Howard Marks]: （准备进入第四点）呃，哦，所以在这里我要说的是，“做对”的难度，正是让防御型投资（defensive investing）变得如此重要的原因。因为这对我们投资来说，尤其因为存在随机性（Randomness），即使我们在脚、臀部、手臂和手肘的动作上都做对了，我们也不可能每一次都击出制胜球。

章节 5：灵感来源四——迈克·米尔肯与债券投资的“负面艺术”

📝 本节摘要：

霍华德·马克斯分享了他的第四个灵感来源——1978年与迈克·米尔肯（Mike Milken）的会面，这彻底改变了他对投资资产“质量”的传统认知。米尔肯指出，被市场视为完美无瑕的 AAA 级债券，其未来的走向往往只有一种：变糟；相反，被市场唾弃、预期极低的 B 级债券，只要能“幸存”下来，反而能带来评级上调和超额回报。马克斯进一步结合格雷厄姆与多德在《证券分析》中提出的概念，阐明了债券投资本质上是一门“负面艺术”（Negative Art）。因为固定收益资产只要不违约，其回报就是固定的。所以，投资大师的业绩并非来自于在一堆好公司中挑选出最耀眼的那一个，而是来自于精准排雷，剔除掉那些无法兑现承诺的“失败者”。这一发现不仅印证了马克斯从前几位大师那里学到的“避免失误”法则，也直接奠定了橡树资本长期聚焦风险控制的基石。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and then the fourth uh uh origin that I wanted to talk to you about today was my meeting with Mike milin in November 1978

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么第四个，呃，呃，我今天想和你们谈论的起源，是我在1978年11月与迈克·米尔肯（Mike Milken）的会面。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so uh in 78 I got a call from my boss at City Bank and he said there's some guy in California named Mike milin and he deals with something called high yield bonds can you figure out what that means because one of our clients had asked for a high yield Bond portfolio and in that day nobody knew about it it was it was unknown

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，呃，在78年，我接到了花旗银行（Citibank）老板的电话，他说加州有个叫迈克·米尔肯的家伙，他专门处理一种叫高收益债券（high yield bonds）的东西。你能去弄清楚那是什么意思吗？因为我们的一位客户要求建立一个高收益债券投资组合。而在那个年代，没人知道这是什么，它是完全未知的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and uh so I I I uh I met with Mike in November of 1978 he came to see me a city in New York he was looking for clients he was just starting off the in the high yield Bond industry and it was a great meeting

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且，呃，所以我在1978年11月去见了迈克。他来纽约的花旗银行找我，他当时正在寻找客户，他刚刚在高收益债券行业起步，那是一次非常棒的会面。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and he explained to me that uh if you buy AAA bonds there's only one way to go tripa bonds are bonds that everybody thinks are great their companies are making a lot of money they have prudent balance sheets the Outlook is good everything's perfect

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他向我解释说，呃，如果你买入 AAA 级债券，未来的走向只有一种。AAA 级债券是每个人都认为极好的债券，这些公司赚很多钱，拥有稳健的资产负债表，前景广阔，一切都很完美。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so if everything's perfect that means it can't get better and if it can't get better that means it can only get worse it doesn't have to get worse but if there is a change it's going to be for the worse and if you've bought a bond on the assumption that it's perfect and it gets worse then you lose money

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，如果一切都很完美，这意味着它不可能变得更好；如果它不可能变得更好，这意味着它只能变得更糟。 它不一定会变糟，但如果发生变化，一定是向坏的方向变化。如果你基于它很完美的假设买入了一只债券，然后它变糟了，你就会亏钱。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so uh that's important on the other hand he said if you buy single B bonds and they survive there's only one way for them to go which is upgrade

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，呃，这很重要。另一方面，他说，如果你买入单一 B 级债券（single B bonds），并且它们幸存（survive）了下来，它们未来的走向也只有一种，那就是评级上调（upgrade）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now that's not exactly true because they can default and go bankrupt but the ones that survive will go up will be upgraded and the surprises are likely to be on the upside

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 虽然这并不完全正确，因为它们也可能会违约（default）并破产，但那些幸存下来的债券将会上涨，将会被上调评级，而且出乎意料的惊喜很可能是在上行方向（on the upside）的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so this was very important again this is about trying to hit winners avoid losers and if you're buying bonds that most people don't think much of it's hard to have a big loser because such low expectations are Incorporated

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以这非常重要，这再次印证了关于“试图击出制胜球，避免失误球”的道理。如果你买入的是大多数人都不看好的债券，你很难遭遇重大的亏损，因为如此之低的预期已经被计入价格中（Incorporated）了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now let me digress for a minute because this is really important how do you make money as an investor the people who don't know think the way you do it is by buying good assets a good building stock in a good company or something like that that is not the secret for Success the secret for success in investing is buying things for less than they're worth

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在请允许我偏题一分钟，因为这确实很重要：作为一名投资者，你如何赚钱？那些不懂行的人认为，赚钱的方法就是买入好的资产——一栋好楼、一家优秀公司的股票之类的。但这并不是成功的秘诀。投资成功的秘诀是以低于其价值的价格买入资产。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so if you buy a high quality asset you know there's a I and I say in the book there's a guy in on the radio I I used to when I lived in La I listened to NPR on the way to work and there was a guy who's and I heard him say it he said well if go into a store and you like the product buy the stock couldn't be more wrong

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以如果你买入了一项高质量的资产……你们知道，我在书里也写过，收音机里有个人……我以前住在洛杉矶的时候，上班路上会听全国公共广播电台（NPR），有个人——我亲耳听到他这么说——他说：“如果你走进一家商店，你喜欢他们的产品，那就买入这家公司的股票。” 这真是大错特错。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: because what determines the success of an investor is not what he buys but what he pays for it and if you buy a high quality asset but you overpay for it you're in big trouble

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因为决定投资者成功的不是他买入了什么，而是他为此支付了多少钱。 如果你买入了一项高质量的资产，但你付出了过高的价格（overpay），你就会陷入大麻烦。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you can buy a very low quality asset but if you pay less than it's worth chances are you're going to make money

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你可以买入一项质量非常低的资产，但如果你支付的价格低于它的价值，你很可能会赚钱。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so the so the book says chapter three says the most important thing is value figuring out what the value of an asset is but number chapter four says the most important thing is the relationship between price and value

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，这本书的第三章写道，最重要的事是“价值”，弄清楚一项资产的价值是多少；但第四章写道，最重要的事是“价格与价值的关系”。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so let's assume that you're able to figure out the value if you pay more than that you're in trouble if you get it for Less the wind is at your back

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以假设你能够弄清楚资产的价值，如果你支付的钱超过了这个价值，你就会有麻烦；如果你以更低的价格买入，你就会顺风顺水。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so um it was very very important then uh to be in an area where the surprises were likely to be on the upside and if you buy the bonds of b-rated companies about which there are such low expectations maybe it's easy for there to be a favorable surprise

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，嗯，当时能够置身于一个惊喜往往出现在上行方向的领域是非常、非常重要的。如果你买入的是 B 级公司的债券，市场对它们的预期如此之低，也许就很容易出现有利的惊喜。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now how can I how can I prove to you that the expectations were low the answer is that uh if you look in the Moody's guide to Bonds in those years it what was the definition of a b-rated bond quote fails to possess the characteristics of a desirable investment in other words it's a bad investment

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么我该如何……我该如何向你们证明当时的预期很低呢？答案是，呃，如果你去查阅那些年的《穆迪债券指南》（Moody's guide to Bonds），B 级债券的定义是什么？引文原话是：“缺乏理想投资的特征（fails to possess the characteristics of a desirable investment）”。换句话说，这是一项糟糕的投资。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now I drove here from the airport in my car and if I take you outside to look at my car and I offer to you for sale because I I don't need that car anymore when I'm done here uh uh I'm not coming back if I say to you would you like to buy my car what is the one question you must ask me before saying yes or no

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在，我是开着我的车从机场来这里的。如果我带你们出去看我的车，并且我想把它卖给你们，因为等我在这里办完事，我……我就不再需要那辆车了，我不打算回去了。如果我对你说：“你想买我的车吗？” 在回答“是”或“否”之前，你必须问我的一个问题是什么？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: price you get an A you get an A so in other words it's a good buy at a certain price it's a bad buy at another price

[译文] [Howard Marks]: “价格。” 你得A！你得A！所以换句话说，在一个特定的价格下它是一笔好买卖，而在另一个价格下它就是一笔坏买卖。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: Moody is now saying that b-rated bonds are a bad buy without any reference to price so in other words there's no price at which a company that has some credit risk uh is is worth investing in

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而穆迪当时的说法是，B级债券是一笔坏买卖，根本不提及价格。所以换句话说，只要一家公司存在信贷风险，无论在什么价格下，呃，它都不值得投资。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and by the way before I turned to high yield bonds in 78 I was part of the bank's me Machinery to buy the bonds of uh the stocks of America's best companies and I explained to lunch how if you bought the bonds of H packet Perkin Elma Texas Instruments Merc Lily Xerox IBM Kodak Polaroid AIG Coca-Cola and Proctor and gam and if you bought them all in ' 68 and you held them until 73 you lost 90% of your money why because they were overpriced

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 顺便说一句，在 78 年我转向高收益债券之前，我是银行投资机器的一部分，负责买入……呃，美国最优秀公司的股票。我在午餐时解释过，如果你买入了惠普（Hewlett Packard）、珀金埃尔默（Perkin Elmer）、德州仪器（Texas Instruments）、默克（Merck）、礼来（Lilly）、施乐（Xerox）、IBM、柯达（Kodak）、宝丽来（Polaroid）、AIG、可口可乐（Coca-Cola）和宝洁（Procter & Gamble）的股票，如果你在 68 年把它们全买了，一直持有到 73 年，你损失了 90% 的钱。为什么？因为它们价格太高了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the average stock since the postwar has traded at 16 times its next year's earnings these were trading at 80 and 90 times why because they were so good everybody it's great companies nothing can go wrong so it doesn't matter what price you pay and if you pay 80 or 90 times that's fine

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 战后以来，普通股票的平均市盈率通常是其明年收益的 16 倍。而这些公司的市盈率是 80 倍和 90 倍。为什么？因为它们太好了，每个人都认为这些是伟大的公司，绝不会出问题。所以你付多少钱并不重要，如果你付 80 倍或 90 倍的市盈率，那也挺好的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and uh so here we are in my experience again experience as a teacher you invest in the best companies in America you lose a lot of money then you go to the high yield Bond business you buy you invest in the worst companies in America you make the most money so it's an instructive lesson if you have your eyes open and and and you learn from experience uh which which I did

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此，呃，回到我的经验——经验再次成为了老师：你投资了美国最好的公司，你亏了一大笔钱；然后你转投高收益债券业务，你买入……你投资了美国最差的公司，你却赚了最多的钱。所以，如果你睁大眼睛，并且……并且你能从经验中学习，这就成了极具启发性的一课，呃，而我正是这么做的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um but the key words were and they survive right there's a little trap there because you have to you have to catch those three words if you buy single B bonds that don't survive then you're in trouble

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，但关键的词是“并且它们幸存下来（and they survive）”，对吧？这里有个小陷阱，因为你必须得抓住这三个词。如果你买入了那些没有幸存下来的单一 B 级债券，那你就有麻烦了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so it but it's obviously it's torically true that if if a company about which the expectations are low uh survives it'll probably at minimum it'll pay off at maturity and maybe in the meantime it'll be upgraded or taken over if they survive

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以这……但这显然在历史上是真实的：如果……如果一家预期极低的公司，呃，幸存了下来，它很可能最起码能在到期时连本带息支付（pay off at maturity）。而且在此期间，如果它们幸存下来，它也许会被上调评级，或者被收购。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so what that convinced me when I was starting the higho bond business and this conversation came at a great point in time is that my analyst should spend all their time trying to weed out the ones that don't survive not finding the ones that will have favorable events but just excluding the ones that have unfavorable events and that's what we did

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，当我刚开始涉足高收益债券业务时，这让我确信——而且这次对话来得正是时候——我的分析师们应该把所有的时间都花在试图剔除那些无法幸存下来的公司上（weed out the ones that don't survive）。不是去寻找那些会有利好事件发生的公司，而仅仅是排除那些会有不利事件发生的公司。 这就是我们所做的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so now uh I'll tell you an interesting story around 05 or 06 the the Bible of investing is a book called security analysis written by Graham and do and uh they they wrote the first edition in 1934 Ben Ben Graham was Warren Buffett's teacher at Columbia and uh in many ways the father of value investing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以现在，呃，我给你们讲个有趣的故事。在大概 05 年或 06 年的时候……投资界的圣经是一本叫做《证券分析》（Security Analysis）的书，作者是格雷厄姆（Graham）和多德（Dodd）。呃，他们……他们在 1934 年写了第一版。本……本·格雷厄姆是沃伦·巴菲特在哥伦比亚大学的老师，而且在许多方面，他被称为价值投资之父。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um and uh he and David Dodd wrote this book in 34 and they updated it in 40 and then several times after and uh the 40 Edition is is is considered to be a great Edition and so in ' 05 mcroy Hill which owned the book said they want to update the book

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 呃，他和大卫·多德（David Dodd）在 34 年写了这本书，他们在 40 年更新了它，之后又更新了几次。呃，40 年的版本被认为是一个伟大的版本。所以在 05 年，拥有这本书版权的麦格劳-希尔公司（McGraw-Hill）说他们想更新这本书。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and uh they uh turned it over to uh Seth claran who's a great dead investor at in Boston at bow post and a professor uh can't remember his name right now H that's right Bruce Greenwald at Columbia so you should be up here I'll sit down

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且，呃，他们……呃，把它交给了塞斯·卡拉曼（Seth Klarman，注：此处原讲者口误为dead investor，实际指卓越的价值投资者），他是波士顿 Baupost 集团一位伟大的投资者；还有一位教授，呃，我现在记不起他的名字了……（注：此时听众提醒）对，没错，哥伦比亚大学的布鲁斯·格林沃尔德（Bruce Greenwald）。你真该坐到上面来，我该坐下去。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: uh and uh they they turned it over to Seth and and Bruce uh to to bring out this this revision and they in turn asked people to revise the sections and they asked me to revise the section on debt

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 呃，所以，呃，他们把它交给了塞斯和布鲁斯来负责这版的修订。而他们又转而邀请其他人来修订不同的章节，他们邀请我来修订关于债务（debt）的章节。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um and so that meant I had to go and read the 1940 Edition in order to update it and I came across something fascinating and it was and it verified what I had always thought it said that Bond investing is a negative art

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，所以这意味着我必须去阅读 1940 年版的内容才能对其进行更新。我偶然发现了一些非常迷人的东西，它……它验证了我一直以来的想法。书中写道：债券投资是一门“负面艺术”（a negative art）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what does that mean what it means is I don't know how many of you know how bonds work but a bond is a promise to pay you give me $100 and I promise to give you 5% interest every year and then pay give you bonding back in 20 years fixed income it's called because all the events are fixed the contract is fixed the return is fixed assuming the promise is kept

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这是什么意思？它的意思是——我不知道你们当中有多少人了解债券是如何运作的，但债券就是一种付款承诺（a promise to pay）。你给我 100 美元，我承诺每年给你 5% 的利息，然后在 20 年后把本金还给你。它被称为固定收益（fixed income），因为所有的事件都是固定的，合同是固定的，回报是固定的——前提是承诺得到兑现。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so all 5% bonds that pay will pay 5% no will pay six none will pay four all the ones that pay will pay 5%

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，所有履约支付的 5% 收益率的债券，都会支付 5%。没有哪个会支付 6%，也没有哪个会支付 4%。所有那些履约的，都会支付 5%。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what does that mean it means it doesn't of the ones that pay it doesn't matter which ones you buy I'm going to like this one I like that one a lot that pays five I like that one that pays five it doesn't make any difference you're not GNA be a hero by choosing among the bonds that pay

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这意味着什么？这意味着，在那些会履约的债券中，你买哪一只根本不重要。“我会喜欢这只，我很喜欢那只支付 5% 的，我喜欢这只支付 5% 的……”这没有任何区别。在那些会兑现承诺的债券里做选择，你当不了英雄。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the only thing that matters is to exclude the ones that don't pay

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 唯一重要的事情，就是排除掉那些不兑现承诺的债券。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so if there are 100 bonds 90 will pay they'll all pay the same thing it doesn't matter which of the 90 you choose the only thing that matters is excluding the 10 that don't pay negative art the the the greatness of your performance comes not from what you buy but from what you exclude

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，如果有 100 只债券，90 只会履约，它们支付的钱都一样，你选那 90 只里的哪一只并不重要。唯一重要的是排除掉那 10 只不履约的债券。负面艺术！你业绩的卓越并非来自于你买入了什么，而是来自于你排除了什么。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so I thought that was very useful I should have that up here too but anyway so that that milin was my fourth uh input

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以我认为这非常有用，我也应该把这句话放到幻灯片上。但无论如何，这就是……米尔肯是我的第四个，呃，灵感输入。

章节 6：橡树资本的六大投资法则

📝 本节摘要：

本章中，霍华德·马克斯将前文提到的四位大师（塔勒布、加尔布雷斯、埃利斯、米尔肯）的灵感进行了串联与总结，并以此引出了橡树资本（Oaktree Capital）在1995年成立时确立的投资组合法则。他详细阐述了其中的核心理念：风险控制永远排在第一位，追求长期一致性远比单年度的业绩拔尖更重要；宏观预测不应作为投资决策的依据，且应尽量避免市场择时。最终，所有这些原则都汇聚成了橡树资本的座右铭：“只要避免了失败者，赢家自然会显现”。马克斯强调，通过砍掉概率分布中代表极端风险的“左尾”，投资者自然能长期获得稳健且优异的回报。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so to lab says that the future consists of a range of possibilities with the outcome significantly influenced by Randomness and galra says that forecasting is feudal and Ellis says that if the game isn't controllable it's better to work to avoid losers than to try for winners and milin says that holding survivors and avoiding defaults is the key in bond investing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，塔勒布（Taleb）说，未来由一系列可能性组成，其结果深受随机性（Randomness）的影响；加尔布雷斯（Galbraith）说，预测是徒劳的（futile，注：原文转录错为feudal）；埃利斯（Ellis）说，如果游戏是不可控的，那么致力于避免失误比试图击出制胜球更好；而米尔肯（Milken）说，持有幸存者并避免违约（defaults）是债券投资的关键。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so if you put them all together that's how you get the philosophy that's in the book these were my Origins

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，如果你把它们全都放在一起，你就会得到我在书里写的那套哲学，这些就是我的起源。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so when we started oak tree April the 10th of 1995 almost exactly 20 years ago we wrote down our investment philosophy and here it is we published it

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此，当我们在 1995 年 4 月 10 日创立橡树资本（Oaktree）时——几乎正好是 20 年前——我们写下了我们的投资哲学，就在这里，我们把它公之于众了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: we were a bunch of guys who had been working together for most of the previous 10 years at a at a different uh employer and we left there as a group and we started oak tree

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们是一群在过去10年里大部分时间都在一起工作的家伙，在另一家、呃，另一个雇主那里工作。然后我们作为一个团队离开了那里，创立了橡树资本。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and so for a philosophy so I believe in writing things down and like like learning at the L says today write them down right

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 至于投资哲学，我坚信要把事情写下来，就像，就像今天在学习中所说的那样，把它们写下来，对吧？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so uh we wrote down our philosophy we published it we' never changed a word since and the clients like knowing what our road map is

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，呃，我们写下了我们的哲学，我们发表了它，从那以后我们一个字也没改过，而客户们喜欢知道我们的路线图（road map）是什么。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so these were the six tenants of the investment philosophy

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么，这些就是投资哲学的六大信条（tenets，注：原文转录错为tenants）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so the first one says that the the most important thing is risk control

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第一条写道，最重要的事情是风险控制（risk control）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and we tell the clients we think that for a for excellence in investing the most important thing is not be making a lot of money it's not beating the market it's not being in the top cortile the most important thing is controlling risk that's our job that's what we'll do for you

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们告诉客户，我们认为要在投资中取得卓越成就，最重要的事情不是赚很多钱，不是跑赢市场，也不是挤进前四分之一（top quartile）；最重要的事情是控制风险。那是我们的工作，那是我们将为你们做的事。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and the clients come to us who want to invest in our asset classes with the risks under control

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而那些想在风险受控的情况下投资我们资产类别的客户，就会来找我们。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: there are other people who who who put less emphasis on controlling risk and they have better results in the good times and worse results in the bad times our clients want what we give them

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 也有其他人，他们对控制风险的重视程度较低，他们在好光景里会有更好的业绩，在坏光景里业绩更差。但我们的客户想要的是我们提供给他们的东西。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: number two we have an emphasis on consistency

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第二条，我们强调一致性（consistency）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so we say we don't try for the moon at the danger of crashing you know

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以我们说，我们不会冒着坠毁的危险去登月（try for the moon），你们懂的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: uh the first memo that I wrote in 1990 I'm sure you remembered that J uh talked about uh a guy who was head of an an asset manager that had a terrible year

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 呃，我在 1990 年写的第一篇备忘录——我确信你们记得那个——呃，谈到了，呃，一个资产管理公司的负责人，他们那一年业绩很糟糕。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and he said well it's very simple if you want to be in the top 5% of money managers you have to be willing to be in the bottom

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他说：“嗯，这很简单。如果你想成为排名前5%的资金管理人，你就必须愿意承受垫底的风险。”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I have no interest in being in the bottom 5% I don't care about being in the top 5% I want to be above the middle on a consistent basis over the long term

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我对成为垫底的 5% 毫无兴趣，我也不在乎能不能成为前 5%。我想要的是在长期内、持续地（on a consistent basis）保持在中等水平之上。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and there's a funny bit of math this will confound the uh what do you call yourself data scientists this will confound the data scientists in the room

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这里有一道有趣的数学题，这会让……你们怎么称呼自己来着？数据科学家（data scientists）。这会让在座的数据科学家们感到困惑。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but the the so in that first memo I contrasted the comments from that uh that uh uh uh money manager with uh a comment from one of my clients who told me right about the same time it was the ju Theos that caused me to write that first memo

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 在那第一篇备忘录中，我将那位资金管理人的言论，与我的一个客户差不多在同一时间对我说的一番话进行了对比。正是这种并置对比（juxtaposition，注：原文转录错为ju Theos）促使我写下了第一篇备忘录。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: he told me that for the previous 14 years his pension fund had never been above the 27th percentile or below the 47th percentile so it was solidly in the second quartile every year for 14 years

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 客户告诉我，在过去的 14 年里，他的养老基金的业绩排名从未高过第 27 百分位（percentile），也从未低过第 47 百分位。所以，在长达 14 年的时间里，它每年都稳稳地处于第二四分位数区间。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so let's see 27 47 the average of that is 37 right what percentile do you think that fund was in for the whole 14 years four four

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么我们来看看，27 和 47，平均值是 37，对吧？你认为在整个 14 年期间，这只基金的总体业绩排名在第几百分位？第四！第四百分位！

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and it it if you think about it it's really almost mysterious why why the fourth not the 37th and the answer is that when people blow up they really blow up

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果你仔细想一想，这真的几乎是个谜：为什么是第四，而不是第 37？答案是，当其他人的业绩崩溃（blow up）时，他们是真的崩得很惨。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and so uh uh we said we want consistency we want to be a little bit above the middle all the time

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此，呃，呃，我们说我们想要一致性，我们想要一直保持在略高于中等水平的位置。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: maybe we'll pop up to the top in the years when the markets are terrible and our risk control is rewarded but we think that over a long period of time we'll be uh very respectable that way and our clients will have an absence of bad experiences which I think for them is very important

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 也许在市场行情极度糟糕的年份，我们会跃升至顶部，那是因为我们的风险控制得到了回报。但我们认为，在很长一段时期内，我们用这种方式能获得非常体面的业绩，而我们的客户也将不会有糟糕的体验，我认为这对他们来说非常重要。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so then macro forecasting is not critical to investing we do not make our decisions based on macro forecast as I explained to you

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 然后接下来，宏观预测（macro forecasting）对投资来说并不关键。正如我向你们解释过的那样，我们不基于宏观预测来做决策。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: we all have opinions we all we our official dictum is that it's okay to have an opinion you just shouldn't act as if it's right

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们都有自己的观点，我们都有。我们的官方格言（official dictum）是：拥有观点是可以的，你只是不应该表现得仿佛它是绝对正确的那样去采取行动。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and and and I think this is this is very important you know Mark Twain said it's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble it's what you know for certain that just ain't true

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且……而且我认为这非常重要。你们知道马克·吐温（Mark Twain）说过：“让你陷入麻烦的不是你不知道的事，而是你确信无疑但其实并非如此的事。”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and and so uh we try to avoid holding strongly to those macro opinions

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，呃，我们尽量避免对那些宏观观点抱有过于强烈的执念。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and finally we don't do a lot of Market timing which is very very hard to do we do long term investing in assets that we think are underpriced

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 最后，我们不做大量的市场择时（Market timing），那是一件非常、非常难做到的事。我们在那些我们认为被低估（underpriced）的资产上进行长期投资。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so that's the oak tree philosophy you can see how the uh Origins and Inspirations that I went through uh fed into that

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这就是橡树资本的哲学。你们可以看到，我之前讲过的那些，呃，起源与灵感，呃，是如何融入到其中的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and in fact it's all distilled in our motto which says that if we avoid the losers the winners to take care of themselves

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 事实上，这一切都浓缩在了我们的座右铭里，那就是：“如果我们避免了失败者（losers），赢家（winners）自然会照顾好自己。”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and if we avoid if we can make a large number of investors and just weed out the problems then we'll have just think of the bell-shaped curve we'll have a lot that do okay and an occasional one which is exceptional if we can read these out

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果我们避免……如果我们能进行大量的投资，并且仅仅是剔除掉有问题的那些，那么我们将会得到——想想钟形曲线（bell-shaped curve）——我们将会得到很多表现还不错的投资，以及偶尔一个表现极为优异的投资。只要我们能把问题剔除掉（weed these out，注：原文转录为read these out）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so a lot of money managers go into the clients and say we will get you in the top cortile into the great righthand tail I think it's hard to do on a consistent basis and if you aim for the right hand tail and you miss you end up in the left hand tail

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 很多资金管理人走到客户面前说：“我们将带你进入前四分之一区间（top quartile），进入那条美妙的右尾（righthand tail）”。我认为这很难持续做到。如果你瞄准的是右尾，一旦失手，你最终就会落入左尾（left hand tail）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what we say is we'll just Lop off the left hand tail and if we can do that successfully and we pretty much have then what will you have okay good very good great terrific but no terrible the average will be very good and that's basically what we've had

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而我们所说的是，我们仅仅是砍掉左尾（Lop off the left hand tail）。如果我们能成功做到这一点——而且我们在很大程度上已经做到了——那你将会得到什么？“还可以”、“好”、“非常好”、“很棒”、“极好”，但绝对没有“糟糕透顶”。平均下来的结果将会非常好，而这基本上就是我们一直以来所取得的业绩。

章节 7：最受用的三句投资箴言

📝 本节摘要：

霍华德·马克斯在演讲结尾分享了他职业生涯中最受用的三句投资箴言。第一句揭示了市场趋势的演变，指出“智者始而愚者终”，告诫投资者不要盲从跟风；第二句重申了风险控制的底线思维，强调“不能只靠平均水位存活”，必须确保在市场最糟糕的日子里也能存活下来；第三句点出投资时机的艰难，指出“超前时代太多与犯错无异”。最后，他以“谦逊”作为演讲的主题收尾，强调对抗过度自信才是抵御最大风险的关键，并随之步入现场问答环节。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so lastly I'll just leave you with what I consider my three greatest adages not mine but the ones I've encountered over my career and that have been the most helpful um and they're all used in the book

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以最后，我只想给你们留下三句我认为最伟大的箴言（adages）——不是我原创的，而是我在职业生涯中遇到过并且对我帮助最大的，嗯，它们都在书里用到了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: first of all what the wise man does in the beginning the fool does in the end in every Trend in invest testing it eventually becomes overdone

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 首先，“智者始而为之，愚者终而效之（what the wise man does in the beginning the fool does in the end）”。在投资（注：原文口误为invest testing）的每一个趋势（Trend）中，它最终都会变得过度（overdone）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: if you find an asset which is cheap and buy it that's great if everybody else figures that out that it's cheap then it'll go up every then people see that it's rising and more people jump on the bandw and goes up up up and the last person to buy it is a is a fool and the first person to do do it buy it is a wise man it's the same asset just at different prices

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果你发现了一项便宜的资产并买入它，那太棒了。如果其他所有人都弄清楚了它很便宜，那么它就会上涨。然后人们看到它在上涨，越来越多的人跳上花车（jump on the bandwagon），价格不断上涨、上涨、上涨。最后一个买入它的人就是一个愚者，而第一个去……去买入它的人就是一个智者。这完全是同一项资产，只是在不同的价格下而已。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and and as as people say first the the innovator then the imitator then the idiot so that's another way to look at this adage

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且……而且正如人们所说，首先是创新者（innovator），然后是模仿者（imitator），最后是白痴（idiot）。所以这是看待这句箴言的另一种方式。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: number two never forget the six foot tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was 5T deep on average kind of like that sky diver who's right 98% of the time it's not sufficient depending on how you want to live your life to survive on average we have to survive on the bad days so we have to be able to survive the low spots in the stream your portfolio has to be set up to survive on the bad days so you won't be shaken out uh of of your Investments

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第二句，“永远不要忘记那个身高六英尺，却在平均水深五英尺的河里淹死的人。” 这点就像那个 98% 的时间都跳对的跳伞运动员一样。仅仅靠平均水平存活下来是不够的——这取决于你想怎样度过你的人生。我们必须得在糟糕的日子里存活下来，所以我们必须能够挺过河流里的低洼处。你的投资组合（portfolio）必须被设置成能够在糟糕的日子里存活下来，这样你才不会被震荡出局（shaken out），呃，被迫放弃你的投资。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and then finally being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong and yet that's a great challenge because as I said before the things that are supposed to happen will not necessarily happen and they absolutely will not happen on time so you have to be able to live until the wisdom of your decisions is proved if at all

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 然后最后一句，“超前时代太多与犯错无异（being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong）”。然而这是一个巨大的挑战，因为正如我之前所说，那些“应该”发生的事情并不一定会发生，而且它们绝对不会“如期”发生。所以你必须能够活到你的决策的智慧被证明的那一天——如果它最终能被证明的话。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so all of these things I think say something about modesty and humility of belief rather than cock shess which I think is the greatest risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以我认为，所有这些事情都说明了信仰上的谦逊（modesty）和谦卑（humility），而不是自以为是（cocksureness，注：原文转录错为cock shess），我认为后者才是最大的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so with that s Rob I'll stop talking and we have a little time left and I'd love to take your questions that's what I'm here for

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么说到这里，索拉布（Saurabh，注：原文转录为s Rob），我就停止发言了。我们还剩下一点时间，我很乐意回答你们的问题，这正是我来这里的目的。

[原文] [Video Host]: thank you Howard this was fascinating so we are open for questions please raise your hand and I'll bring the mic to you um

[译文] [Video Host]: 谢谢你，霍华德，这太精彩了。现在我们开放提问环节，请举手，我会把麦克风递给你们，嗯。

章节 8：问答（上）——人性弱点、宏观框架与被动投资的局限

📝 本节摘要：

本节进入现场问答环节。面对观众关于“如果所有人都避免亏损，追求赢家是否会成为新策略”的提问，马克斯指出贪婪与渴望暴富是人性中难以抹灭的弱点，因此大多数人总会在错误的时机（如市场高点）放弃谨慎。随后，在回应“既然不做宏观预测那如何面对极端宏观风险”时，马克斯澄清道：投资者需要一个基础的“宏观框架”，但决不能将注下在极端的宏观预测上，此时“第二层思维”和卓越的判断力是制胜关键。最后，针对指数基金能否保护业余投资者的提问，马克斯给出了精辟的见解：指数基金仅仅消除了跑输市场的风险（基准风险），但并没有消除底层资产本身的下跌风险。

[原文] [Audience]: the thing you said about uh what the wise man does in the beginning the fool does in the end can can come you can come up from a single stock and you can think about your whole philosophy that way so you've been focusing here on avoiding losers and maybe humans are kind of generally focus on trying to find Winners maybe that's why we'll always do wrong but if everybody in the world was trying to avoid losers maybe the wise investor now Shoots for the winners do you know what I mean it's sort of self balancing sure

[译文] [观众]: 你提到“智者始而为之，愚者终而效之”，这可以从单只股票的角度来看，也可以贯穿你的整个投资哲学。你在这里一直强调要避免失败者（avoiding losers），而也许人类的本性通常是致力于寻找赢家（find Winners），也许这就是为什么我们总会犯错。但是，如果世界上每个人都在试图避免失败者，也许明智的投资者现在反而应该去追求赢家了，你明白我的意思吗？这是一种自我平衡，对吧？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: well number one I don't think I don't think that we have to worry about everybody becoming too prudent or too wise because we're talk because we're talking about human nature

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，第一，我不认为……我不认为我们需要担心每个人都变得过于谨慎或过于明智，因为我们正在谈论……因为我们正在谈论的是人性（human nature）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: Charlie Monger the boys went to see Charlie merer this week one of the one of the great quotes that Charlie gave me was from the philosopher deines who said for that which a man wishes that he will believe

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 查理·芒格——小伙子们这周去看了查理·芒格——查理给我的一句伟大的名言来自哲学家狄摩西尼（Demosthenes，原文转录错为deines），他说：“一个人总是愿意相信他所希望的（for that which a man wishes that he will believe）”。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what do most people want more than anything else they want to get rich very few people think that the future that that the that the that the uh the secret to their happiness comes from prudence and caution,

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 大多数人最想要的是什么？他们想要致富（get rich）。很少有人会认为，认为未来……认为……认为他们幸福的秘诀来自于谨慎（prudence）和小心（caution）,。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: most people think it comes from that stroke of Genius which will put him on Easy Street uh so but you're you're absolutely right and there are times when most people are behave in a prudent and cautious manner

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 大多数人认为这来自于某种天才的灵光一现（stroke of Genius），这将使他们从此过上无忧无虑的生活（put him on Easy Street）。呃，但是……但是你完全正确，有时候大多数人确实会表现得非常谨慎和小心。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: when is it it's in a crash when security prices are down here right that's the time to turn aggressive and buy

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那是什么时候？是在崩盘（crash）的时候，当证券价格跌到谷底时，对吧？那才是应该转为激进（aggressive）并买入的时候。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so Buffett says the less Prudence with which others conduct their Affairs the greater the Prudence with which we must conduct our own Affairs and there are times when we should turn aggressive and that's when everything's being given away

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以巴菲特说：“别人在处理他们的事务时越不谨慎，我们在处理自己的事务时就必须越谨慎。” 而且有时候我们应该变得激进，那就是当所有东西都在被毫无保留地抛售（given away）的时候。

[原文] [Audience]: um so you said that you do not predict you do not make any Micro Focus right but actually the macros can affect companies in a lot of ways like I mean if you have interest rate like 30% I mean 99% of the companies will be gone or something like that right so how do you even make an investment

[译文] [观众]: 嗯，所以你刚才说你不做预测，你不做任何宏观（宏观原文转录错为Micro Focus，结合语境应为macro forecast）预测，对吧？但实际上，宏观因素会在很多方面影响公司，比如，我的意思是，如果利率达到 30%，我的意思是 99% 的公司都会倒闭之类的，对吧？那你们还怎么进行投资呢？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: okay so now now I know I'm not coming back to Google anymore because the people are too intelligent because this is one of the great traps,

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 好的，所以现在……现在我知道我以后不会再来谷歌（Google）了，因为这里的人太聪明了，因为这正是其中一个巨大的陷阱（traps）,。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I say that we don't invest on the basis of macro forecast but you have to have a an economic framework in mind when you predict the fortunes of individual companies

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我说过我们不基于宏观预测（macro forecast）进行投资，但是当你预测个别公司的命运时，你的脑海中必须有一个经济框架（economic framework）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um and uh what I would say is what we try to do is we you know it's one thing to say that oil is at 50 and we're going to invest in this company because it will do fine if oil's at 50 survive if it goes to 30 and Thrive if it goes to 70

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，而且，呃，我想说的是我们试图做的是……你知道，说“现在的油价是 50 美元，我们将投资这家公司，因为如果油价在 50 美元它会表现良好，如果跌到 30 美元它能幸存（survive），如果涨到 70 美元它会繁荣（Thrive）”，这是一回事；

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but it's another thing to say oil is 50 I think it's going 110 10 I'm going to invest in this company which is going to be great if if it goes to 110 but bankrupt if it stays at 50

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但说“油价是 50 美元，我认为它会涨到 110 美元……110 美元，我打算投资这家公司，如果油价涨到 110 美元它会非常棒，但如果油价停留在 50 美元它就会破产”，这完全是另一回事。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so the question is how radical are your forecasts and we try to anticipate a future that looks pretty much like the norm and make allowance for the thing that that things other than the norm can happen

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以问题在于，你的预测有多极端（radical）？我们试图预期一个看起来非常像常态（norm）的未来，并为那些常态之外可能发生的事情留出余地（make allowance）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and I can't really uh be much more concrete than that it's all you know all this by the way all this stuff is Judgment you know there are no rules there are no algorithms there are no there are no formulas that always work none of this is any good unless the person making the decision has Superior judgment,

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我实在无法，呃，给出比这更具体的回答了。顺便说一句，所有这些东西都取决于判断力（Judgment）。你要知道，没有规律，没有算法（algorithms），没有……没有永远行之有效的公式（formulas）,。除非做决策的人拥有卓越的判断力（Superior judgment），否则所有这些都不起作用。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and you know the first chapter of the book says the most important thing is second level thinking

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你知道，《投资最重要的事》这本书的第一章写道，最重要的事是第二层思维（second level thinking）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: most people think on the first level to be a superior investor you must think on the second level you have to think different from everybody else but in being different you have to be better

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 大多数人停留在第一层思维。要成为一名卓越的投资者，你必须在第二层思维上进行思考。你必须想得跟其他所有人都不一样，但在与众不同的同时，你还必须比别人更好。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you know so the the first the first level thinker is naive he says this is a great company let's buy the stock the second level thinker says it's a great company but it's not as great as everybody thinks it is we better sell the stock

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你知道，所以，第一层思维者是天真的（naive），他说：“这是一家伟大的公司，让我们买入它的股票吧。” 第二层思维者会说：“这是一家伟大的公司，但它并没有大家认为的那么伟大，我们最好卖掉它的股票。”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: that's the difference between being an average person and a person with Superior Insight by the by the way uh most people are not above average

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这就是作为一个普通人与作为一个拥有卓越洞察力（Superior Insight）的人之间的区别。顺便……顺便说一句，呃，大多数人并不在平均水平之上。

[原文] [Audience]: yes sir do you think Diversified index funds adequately protect the amateur investor from losers

[译文] [观众]: 是的，先生。你认为分散化的指数基金（Diversified index funds）能充分保护业余投资者免受失败者（losers）的伤害吗？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: well this is a great this is a great question the role of the index fund um a lot of people say I'm going to take a lowrisk approach I'm going to invest in an index fund and they are confused,

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，这是一个很好的……这是一个很好的问题，关于指数基金的作用。嗯，很多人说：“我要采取一种低风险的策略，我要去投资指数基金”，而他们其实陷入了困惑,。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what an index fund does is it guarantees you performance in line with the index

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 指数基金所做的，是向你保证能获得与指数一致（in line with the index）的业绩。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so the point is because of the operation of What's called the efficient market not many people can beat the market it's true most mutual funds do not beat the market most mutual fund investors would would be better off just to be in an index fund

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以关键在于，由于所谓的“有效市场”（efficient market）的运作，没有多少人能够跑赢市场，这是事实。大多数共同基金（mutual funds）跑不赢市场，大多数共同基金投资者如果只投资指数基金，情况会好得多（would be better off）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and in in and in fact most active investment schemes impose fees that they don't earn and that is one of the major reasons that most active investment schemes perform below average

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 并且……而且事实上，大多数主动投资产品（active investment schemes）收取了他们根本不配得到的费用，而这也是大多数主动投资产品业绩低于平均水平的主要原因之一。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so the index fund which is called passive investing yes it does reduce the eliminates the likelihood that you fail to keep up with the index it also of course eliminates the possibility that you outperform the index

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此，被称为被动投资（passive investing）的指数基金，是的，它确实减少了……消除了你未能跟上指数的可能；但当然，它也消除了你跑赢（outperform）指数的可能。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so you trade away the two sides of the probability distribution for shity that you get index results

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以你用概率分布（probability distribution）的两端作为交换，来换取你一定会获得指数回报的确定性（surety，原文发音近似被转录为shity）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so but it doesn't eliminate the risk of the investment it eliminates the risk of deviating from the index,

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，但它并没有消除投资的风险，它仅仅是消除了偏离指数（deviating from the index）的风险,。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what you have to to keep in mind is that the index fund investor loses money every time the index goes down why because there's no value added to to keep it above

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你必须……必须牢记的是，每当指数下跌时，指数基金投资者都会亏钱。为什么？因为没有任何附加价值（value added）能让它保持在指数之上。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so uh and it by the way index investing is a fine thing for the average amateur investor because the average amateur investor number one can't beat the market number two can't find anybody or hire anybody who can beat the market

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，呃，而且顺便说一句，对普通的业余投资者来说，指数投资是一件好事。因为普通的业余投资者，第一，无法跑赢市场；第二，找不到也雇不到任何能跑赢市场的人。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but the only thing is he shouldn't think that it's a riskless trade it's you you you uh eliminate what we call Benchmark risk but you retain the risk of the underlying assets

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但唯一的问题是，他不应该认为这是一笔无风险的交易（riskless trade）。你……你……你，呃，消除了我们所说的“基准风险”（Benchmark risk），但你仍然保留了底层资产（underlying assets）的风险。

章节 9：问答（中）——市场有效性与价值回归的“催化剂”

📝 本节摘要：

在本节问答中，观众询问在信息高度发达的今天，普通投资者的行为是否与20年前有所不同。马克斯表示，虽然被动投资（指数化）的趋势在增长，但大多数人跑不赢市场的原因依然是“市场有效性”。只有当主动投资者大幅减少，市场不再有人去努力寻找错误定价时，主动投资才会重新奏效。随后，另一个核心问题被抛出：既然通过价值投资找到了价格低于内在价值的资产，如何预估价格回归价值所需的时间？马克斯坦言“你永远无法知道”，并引入了“催化剂”的概念。他解释说，债券到期或激进投资者的介入等事件能加速价格向价值的收敛，但对于大多数没有催化剂的股票而言，等待回归的过程往往极其漫长，这再次印证了“超前时代太多与犯错无异”的投资箴言。

[原文] [Audience]: sorry um so you've been through one or two of these business Cycles I guess and uh with the availability of information and uh with the number of books being written about this subject about value and proper investing and how many managers don't beat the market do you think the average investor is doing anything different than they were 20 years ago

[译文] [观众]: 抱歉，嗯，所以我想你已经经历过一两个这样的商业周期了。而且，呃，随着信息的普及，呃，以及关于这个主题——关于价值和正确的投资，以及有多少管理者跑不赢市场——写了这么多的书，你认为普通投资者现在的做法和20年前有什么不同吗？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: well look I think I think there's a minor movement toward indexation it's not a a a ground swell there's still lots of money in actively managed uh mutual funds where the where there's 2% a year of fees and costs or one and a half uh uh

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，听着，我认为……我认为目前存在一种向指数化（indexation）靠拢的微弱趋势，但它还不是一种席卷一切的浪潮（ground swell）。在主动管理的共同基金里仍然有大量的资金，那里的……那里的年费和成本高达 2% 或者 1.5%。呃，呃。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but but I think there's more in indexation every year and that's probably appropriate

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但是……但是我认为每年进入指数化投资的资金都在变多，这可能是合适的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but here's an I'll just turn it around I'll leave you with a question why can't people beat the market because the Market's pretty efficient and market prices most things right and most people can't find and identify and act on the times when the market prices things wrong

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但是这里有一个……我反过来说，我留给你们一个问题：为什么人们无法跑赢市场？因为市场相当有效（efficient），而且市场对大多数事物的定价是正确的。大多数人无法在市场对事物定价错误的时候，去发现、识别并采取行动。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: that's why most people can't beat the market that's what I learned at University of Chicago and I think it's pretty true

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这就是大多数人跑不赢市场的原因，这也是我在芝加哥大学（University of Chicago）学到的，而且我认为这非常正确。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so the reason for the inability to beat the market is the Market's efficiency the Market's efficiency comes from the concerted efforts of thousands of investors who are trying to find the bargains what happens when they stop trying

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，无法跑赢市场的原因在于市场的有效性。而市场的有效性，来源于成千上万试图寻找便宜货（bargains）的投资者的共同努力。当他们停止尝试时会发生什么？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so when when when the interest in P in active investment declines because people give up on it and turn to passive investing and all the analysts quit studying the companies then prices resume their deviation from intrinsic value then it becomes uh uh possible to beat the market again

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，当……当……当对主动投资的兴趣下降，因为人们放弃了它并转向被动投资，并且所有的分析师都不再研究这些公司时，那么价格就会恢复其偏离内在价值（intrinsic value）的状态。然后，跑赢市场就变得……呃，呃，重新成为可能了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so it's really paradoxical and I would say counterintuitive but I don't think we we're close to that day but in theory there comes a day when so little attention is being paid to active investing that active investing starts working again

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以这真的很矛盾（paradoxical），我会说它是反直觉的（counterintuitive）。但我认为我们……我们离那一天还很远。但在理论上，总有一天，当人们对主动投资的关注度极低时，主动投资就会重新开始奏效。

[原文] [Audience]: yes sir thanks our for coming for the talk uh so you talk about the difference in value and the price uh the other dimension is time so how do you estimate the time taken to that preach to close

[译文] [观众]: 是的，先生。感谢你来做这次演讲。呃，所以你谈到了价值和价格之间的差异，呃，另一个维度是时间。所以你如何估计那种价差闭合（close，注：原文转录为that preach to close，结合语境应为that gap to close）所需的时间？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you never do you never know see what he's saying I mean again it's a very good question and and what we want to do is we want to find things where the intrinsic value is here and the price is here and so his question is how do we estimate the time that it's going to take for The Gap to close and the answer is there's no way to say

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你永远做不到，你永远无法知道。明白他在说什么吗？我的意思是，这又是一个非常好的问题。而且……而且我们想做的是，我们想找到那些内在价值在“这里”，而价格在“那里”（比划高低）的东西。所以他的问题是，我们如何估计价差（The Gap）闭合所需的时间？答案是，根本无法预估。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: uh on occasion there are what we call catalysts and um one Catalyst would be uh the maturity the pending maturity of a bond

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 呃，偶尔会有一些我们称之为“催化剂”（catalysts）的东西。而且，嗯，一种催化剂将是，呃，债券的到期（maturity），即即将到期的债券。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: if a bond is going to mature in 2012 and it's selling at 60 because most people think it's going to go bankrupt but it's but we think it's going to pay off and and uh at maturity then the date of that the existence of a maturity date is going to force the convergence of price to Value

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果一只债券将在 2012 年到期，目前它的售价是 60，因为大多数人认为它会破产；但是……但是我们认为它会兑现承诺，并且，并且，呃，在到期时连本带息支付，那么那个日期……到期日的存在，将强制促使价格向价值收敛（convergence of price to Value）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: uh another uh Catalyst today is all these um um activist investors they find the company it's selling they think the intrinsic value is here it's selling here because the management is subpar and they're not doing the right strategy

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 呃，今天另一种，呃，催化剂，就是所有这些，嗯，嗯，激进投资者（activist investors）。他们找到一家公司，它的售价……他们认为内在价值在“这里”，而售价在“这里”（比划低位），因为管理层不达标（subpar），而且他们没有采取正确的战略。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so they go in they F in trouble they try to get a board seat they try to force the management to do the right thing to course to to cause the price to converge with the value

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以他们介入进去，他们挑起事端（原文转录为F in trouble，结合语境应为stir up trouble或find trouble），他们试图获得一个董事会席位，他们试图强迫管理层做正确的事，从而导致……促使价格与价值收敛。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so there are a few catalysts in the world but generally speaking you buy a stock you hope you think it's worth here the price is here you hope it'll converge but there's no way to estimate the time

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以在这个世界上确实存在一些催化剂。但一般来说，你买入一只股票，你希望……你认为它值这个价，而当前价格在这里，你希望它能收敛，但根本没有办法预估时间。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and that's the reason why being too far ahead of your time is industrial from being wrong because it can take a long time

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而这正是为什么“超前时代太多与犯错无异（indistinguishable from being wrong，注：原文转录错为industrial from being wrong）”的原因，因为这可能需要经历一段漫长的时间。

[原文] [Audience]: so would you always look for presence of catalyst when you find a gap

[译文] [观众]: 那么，当你发现价差时，你会总是去寻找催化剂的存在吗？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: there aren't enough I mean it happens you know most of what we do is in the fixed income world and there are more catalysts in the fixed income world than in the equity world

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 没有那么多（催化剂）。我的意思是，它确实会发生。你知道，我们所做的大部分工作都是在固定收益（fixed income）领域，而固定收益领域里的催化剂比股票（equity）领域里的要多。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you find a stock you know the how many how many stocks you think the the the activist investors go after a year 10 20 5050 100 no more there are thousands of stocks so most stocks are never going to get catalyzed

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你找到了一只股票，你知道……你认为激进投资者一年会追逐多少只股票？10只？20只？50只？100只？不会再多了。而市场上有成千上万只股票，所以大多数股票永远不会被“催化”（get catalyzed）。

章节 10：问答（下）——逆向募资的艰难、不良债务与当下的“逐底竞争”

📝 本节摘要：

在最后的问答环节中，马克斯回忆了早期推销“垃圾债”和“不良债务”时遭遇的巨大阻力。他生动地解释了不良债务投资的底层逻辑：当企业破产时，原债权人将转化为新股东，若以极低价格买入这些债权，便能获得惊人回报。随后，他认同了巴菲特的观点，指出小资金规模的投资者在寻找市场无效性方面具备天然优势，前提是抵挡住盲目扩张规模的诱惑。最后，面对当前市场的估值问题，马克斯发出了严厉警告：零利率环境正迫使传统上寻求安全的投资者盲目转向高风险资产以追求收益。这种为了抢夺资产而不断降低预期回报、放弃保护性条款的行为，正在引发一场危险的“逐底竞争”（Race to the Bottom）。他以橡树资本当下的座右铭作为全场总结：“前进，但要保持谨慎”。

[原文] [Audience]: curious if you could tell us what uh it was like when you were out raising money for oak tree in the early days I I I would imagine that I would imagine that today some clients are are skeptical uh but I would imagine that it was was it a lot different for you back then and

[译文] [观众]: 很好奇你能否告诉我们，早期你出去为橡树资本（Oaktree）募资时是怎样的情形？我……我能想象到……我猜想今天有些客户依然会持怀疑态度，但我猜想在那个时候，情况对你来说肯定大不相同吧？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: well by the time we started oak tree it wasn't that hard because we had a reputation but when we but but but you know when I started raising money for our strategies 1978 junk bonds 90% of investment organizations like Google had a rule a concrete rule against any bond investing below triple below a or below investment grade which is Triple B

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，到我们创立橡树资本的时候，其实已经没那么难了，因为我们已经有了名气。但是当我们……但是……但是你知道，当我在 1978 年开始为我们的策略——垃圾债券（junk bonds）——募资时，90% 的投资机构（就像谷歌这样的机构）都有一条规定，一条非常明确的规定：禁止投资任何低于……低于 A 级，或者低于投资级（investment grade，即 BBB 级）的债券。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and of course Moody said it's an improving investment so that was very very hard to overcome but you have what you have to do is you have to find a few people you see you have to find a few people you have to go say him to him you should do this because nobody else is because nobody else is doing it it's languishing cheap

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且当然了，穆迪（Moody's）也说它是一项“需要改善的投资”，所以这非常、非常难以克服。但你必须……你必须做的是，你必须找到几个人，你懂的，你必须找到几个人，你必须走到他们面前对他们说：“你应该做这个，因为其他人都没有做；正因为其他人都没有做，所以它现在极其廉价（languishing cheap）。”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you make no money doing the things that everybody wants to do you make money by doing the things that nobody wants to do who then turn out to have value

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 做每个人都想做的事情是赚不到钱的。你是通过做那些没人愿意做、但后来被证明有价值的事情来赚钱的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and if you say that message to a 100 investors in the beginning maybe 10 jump on board after it works for a while then the rest come on like the screen says but but uh hopefully not too extreme but the point is it was very hard in the beginning

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果你一开始把这个信息告诉 100 个投资者，也许有 10 个人会加入。等它奏效了一段时间后，其余的人就会像屏幕上显示的那样蜂拥而至，但是……但是呃，希望不会太极端。但关键是，在一开始真的非常艰难。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and uh you know in certain foreign countries it was even harder because in certain foreign countries where the thinking is a little more narrow than American thinking I always thought that if I go into somebody's office I say you should do this because nobody else is they'd call the man in a white coat to take me away they don't they don't understand that

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且呃，你知道，在某些外国国家，这甚至更难。因为在某些思维比美国人更狭隘的外国国家，我总觉得如果我走进某人的办公室说：“你应该做这个，因为其他人都没有做”，他们会打电话叫穿白大褂的人（指精神病院护工）把我带走。他们不……他们不理解这一点。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you know I think that Americans semi intuitively understand the value of contrarianism and of being a Maverick but in many countries they they they just don't get it

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你知道，我认为美国人半直觉性地理解逆向投资（contrarianism）和特立独行（being a Maverick）的价值，但在许多国家，他们……他们……他们就是不明白。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so that's an example high yield now in but then we started Oak Tree in oh no no that was a city in 85 I switched from City to trust compy the West TCW and in 88 we we brought out the first distress debt fund

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以这是一个例子，高收益债券。然后我们创立了橡树资本……哦，不，不，那是花旗银行。在 85 年，我从花旗银行跳槽到了西部信托公司（Trust Company of the West, TCW）。然后在 88 年，我们……我们推出了第一支不良债务基金（distress debt fund）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now now we're not investing in companies that have a risk of default we're investing in bonds that are either in the fault or sure to be and people would say well how can can you possibly make moneyy investing in the bonds of bankrupt companies

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在……现在我们投资的不再是有违约风险的公司了，我们投资的是那些已经违约（in default），或者必定会违约的债券。人们会说：“天呐，你投资破产公司的债券怎么可能赚到钱？”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and we had to explain to them that that if a if a if a creditor of a company doesn't get paid the interest in Principle as promised they have a claim against the value of the company and they exert that claim in a process called bankruptcy

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们不得不向他们解释，如果……如果……如果一家公司的债权人（creditor）没有按约定获得利息和本金，他们就对该公司的价值拥有索赔权（claim）。而他们是在一个叫做“破产”（bankruptcy）的程序中行使这项索赔权的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and in bankruptcy to oversimplify and overgeneralize the old owners are wiped out and the old creditors become the new owners

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而在破产程序中——说得极端简化和概括一点——原来的所有者（股东）被淘汰出局（wiped out），而原来的债权人成为了新的所有者。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and if you bought an ownership stake through the debt for what for less than it's worth then you make money and the you know we've made about 23% a year for 28 years uh investing in distress debt before fees uh without any leverage so that's pretty astronomical

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果你通过购买债务，以……以低于它价值的价格买入了一项所有权股份（ownership stake），那你就会赚钱。而且，你知道，我们在这 28 年里投资不良债务的年化回报率大约是 23%（扣除费用前），而且呃，没有使用任何杠杆（leverage）。所以这是一个相当天文数字的回报。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: uh why because from time to time in distress debt you get to buy things for less than they're worth and in fact because other people are fleeing from the bankruptcy maybe you get them to buy get them to buy them for a lot less than they're worth

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 呃，为什么？因为在不良债务领域，你时常能以低于其价值的价格买到东西。事实上，因为其他人都在从破产中逃离（fleeing），也许你就能以远远低于它们价值的价格买到它们。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so you know it was very challenging but uh you know if you can like and you can't convince everybody but if you can explain the merits and and and tell the story clearly and concisely and persuasively then you get some clients and then if you get good results then you get more clients

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，你知道，这非常具有挑战性。但是呃，你知道，如果你能……就像你无法说服所有人，但如果你能解释清楚其中的优点，并且……并且清晰、简明且有说服力地把这个故事讲出来，那么你就会得到一些客户。然后，如果你取得了好的业绩，你就会得到更多的客户。

[原文] [Audience]: thank you a for for your talk uh one question uh Buffett uh in 99 said that if he was running very small amounts of money he would be able to find lots of Bargains and beat the market by 50% and he would use the word guaranteed

[译文] [观众]: 感谢你的演讲。呃，一个问题。巴菲特在 99 年曾说过，如果他管理的是非常少量的资金，他将能够找到很多便宜货（Bargains），并以 50% 的优势跑赢市场，而且他甚至使用了“保证”（guaranteed）这个词。

[原文] [Audience]: uh I presume he meant that there are a lot of inefficiencies in the small um capitalization stocks one thing that kind of surprises me is if uh someone an analyst willing to work hard on his own not in an institution the world of distress debt investing is kind of shut out even for the value investor filled with lot of technicalities and seems like the big institution has a lot of Advantage

[译文] [观众]: 呃，我猜他的意思是，在小盘股（small capitalization stocks）中存在很多无效性（inefficiencies）。有一件事让我感到有些惊讶，那就是如果……如果某个人，一个愿意自己努力工作的分析师，不在机构里工作，不良债务投资的世界似乎对价值投资者来说也是关闭的，里面充满了大量的技术细节（technicalities），而且似乎大型机构在这方面拥有极大的优势。

[原文] [Audience]: are there such inefficiencies that are kind of shut out to the institutions but the small investor willing to work hard can find inefficiencies in the debt World

[译文] [观众]: 在债务世界中，是否存在这种对机构关闭，但愿意努力工作的小散户却能找到的无效性呢？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: well I think that uh I I think that I think that this the small guy can even be active in distress debt uh he he can't get enough bonds to get a seat at the creditors committee table or have a voice but he can still uh find Superior values

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，我认为……呃，我……我认为，我认为小资金散户（small guy）甚至也能在不良债务领域表现活跃。呃，他……他无法获得足够的债券来在债权人委员会（creditors committee）的桌上赢得一个席位或拥有发言权，但他仍然可以，呃，找到极具卓越价值的标的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: um you know so what I was saying in answer to your question is that if you have good if you get some accounts and you have good performance you'll get more accounts so that that goes a little further because what I really say is that if you have good performance you'll get more money and eventually if you let that process become unchecked if you get more money you'll have bad performance and this is one of the conundrums in our in our business and so you have to hold that

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，你知道，所以我在回答之前那个问题时说的是，如果你有好的……如果你得到了一些账户，并且你取得了好的业绩，你就会得到更多的账户。这其实还有更深一层的含义，因为我真正想说的是：如果你业绩好，你就会得到更多的资金；而最终，如果你让这个过程不受控制（unchecked），如果你管理的资金越来越多，你的业绩就会变差。这是我们……我们这个行业里的难题（conundrums）之一，所以你必须得把控住。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but the truth of the matter is that the little guy has an advantage as long as he's willing to stay small many people are not because the in the short run the more money you manage when you get fees the you know there's a it's a great lure to take on more money but you have to stop it at a point where it's before it starts ruining your performance

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但事实的真相是，只要小散户愿意保持小规模，他就有优势。 许多人不愿意这样，因为在短期内，你管理的资金越多，你收取的管理费就越多。你知道，接纳更多的资金是一种巨大的诱惑（lure），但你必须在一个特定的节点停下来——在它开始毁掉你的业绩之前。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now uh for the data scientists Among Us I always like to point out that if if if I worked at uh uh you know Firestone Tires and I developed a new tire and I wanted to know how far it would go I would put it on a car and run it until it blew up right that's called destructive testing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在，呃，对于我们在座的数据科学家们，我总喜欢指出一点：如果……如果……如果我在，呃，呃，你知道的，凡士通轮胎（Firestone Tires）工作，我开发了一款新轮胎，我想知道它能跑多远，我会把它装到车上，一直跑直到它爆胎，对吧？这叫做“破坏性测试”（destructive testing）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but as an investor with clients and a fiduciary responsibility I don't have the luxury of doing destructive testing so I can't add more people always say to me well what's the limit on how much money you can invest well and I can't find out by running into the wall I have to stop this side of the wall

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但作为一名拥有客户并背负受托责任（fiduciary responsibility）的投资者，我没有这种做破坏性测试的奢侈。所以我不能无限制地增加资金。人们总是问我：“嗯，你们能妥善投资的资金上限是多少？” 嗯，我不能通过“撞到南墙”（running into the wall）来找出这个答案。我必须在撞墙之前停下来。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: one of the interesting lessons is that if you stop this side of the wall then you never find out where the wall really is but that's what we have to do and uh uh so but uh so you have to stop

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 其中一个有趣的教训是，如果你在撞墙之前停下了，你就永远不知道这堵墙到底在哪里。但这就是我们必须做的。而且呃，呃，所以……但是呃，所以你必须停下来。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and I believe that the person who has uh a big brain and a little money and a lot of time and uh exceptional Insight can find great bargain uh but you know that's that's a pretty daunting list and I don't think that Buffett's guarantee uh necessarily extends to everybody in this room

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我相信，一个拥有、呃，高超的智慧、少量的资金、充裕的时间、以及，呃，非凡的洞察力的人，绝对能找到极好的便宜货。呃，但你们知道，那是一个相当苛刻的条件清单。而且我不认为巴菲特的“保证”，呃，必然适用于这个房间里的每一个人。

[原文] [Audience]: do you see any unhealthy Trends in valuation in the market today the same way Tech or housing was valued in the past

[译文] [观众]: 你认为当今市场在估值方面是否存在任何不健康的趋势（unhealthy Trends）？就像过去科技股或房地产被高估的那样？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: yes I do um because uh to the the market extends the the menu extends the what we call the Capital Market line extends from What's called the risk-free rate the risk-free rate is the rate generally speaking on the 30-day treasury bill

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 是的，我认为存在。嗯，因为，呃，市场延伸了……菜单延伸了……我们所说的“资本市场线”（Capital Market line）是从所谓的“无风险利率”（risk-free rate）开始延伸的。无风险利率，一般来说，就是 30 天期国库券（treasury bill）的利率。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and of course if you can get 3% on the risk-free rate then you in order to tie up your money for five years in a 5-year treasury you want four and to get it years you want five and if you can get 10 years on a government security uh 5% then in order to go into a corporate security which has some credit risk you would demand six and to go into a high yield Bond you demand 12 and so forth

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当然，如果在无风险利率上你能得到 3%，那么为了把你的钱在 5 年期国债里锁定 5 年，你会想要 4%；为了锁定更长时间，你会想要 5%。如果在 10 年期政府证券上你能得到，呃，5%，那么为了进入带有一定信贷风险的企业证券，你会要求 6%；为了进入高收益债券，你会要求 12%，以此类推。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so there's a there's a kind of a process called equilibration uh which makes things line up in terms of relative risk and return but always tied pegged from the risk-free rate today the risk free rate is zero so everything that I just named this Capital Market Market line has had a parallel downward shift

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以存在一个……存在一种被称为“平衡”（equilibration）的过程，呃，它使各项资产在相对风险和回报的层面上排列开来，但它始终是锚定（pegged）在无风险利率上的。今天，无风险利率是零。所以我刚才提到的所有一切，这条资本市场线，整体发生了平行的向下移动。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and so it's it before the crisis I had you know uh sirab mentioned about the fact that I turned bearish all my money was in was in treasuries uh all the money that I had outside of oak tree was in treasuries and I was getting six and a half% for 1 two 3 four 5 six year maturities I was getting income and safety

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以这……这导致在金融危机之前，我……你知道，呃，索拉布提到了我当时转为看空的事实，我所有的钱都在……都在国债里，呃，我在橡树资本之外的所有钱都在国债里。我买的 1 到 6 年期不等的国债收益率是 6.5%。我当时既获得了收益（income），又获得了安全（safety）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: today you have a choice income or safety because the things today that are highly safe pay no income you know and if you go to Fidelity conduct an experiment go to Fidelity or Vanguard or big mutual fund firm and go online and look at their menu of offerings and what is the current yield on current net yield after fees and expenses and for you'll see that for money market and short-term treasuries and maybe intermediate treasury the yield is zero

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 今天，你只能面临二选一的抉择：要收益，还是要安全。 因为今天那些高度安全的资产根本不支付任何收益。你知道，如果你去富达（Fidelity）——做个实验，去富达或者先锋领航（Vanguard）或者大型共同基金公司的网站，看看他们的产品菜单。扣除各项费用后的当前净收益率是多少？你会发现，对于货币市场基金、短期国债，也许还有中期国债，它们的收益率全是零。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so just think the guy is watching the Super Bowl in his undershirt he gets a statement from Fidelity he opens it up and it says the yield on your fund is now zero he grabs the phone he calls the 800 number he says get me out of that fund that yields zero and put me in the one that yields six

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以想想看，一个穿着汗衫正看着超级碗（Super Bowl）的家伙，他收到了一份来自富达的对账单。他打开一看，上面写着“您的基金收益率现在是零”。他抓起电话，拨打 800 免费热线，他说：“把我从那个收益率为零的基金里弄出来，把我放进那个收益率是 6% 的基金里！”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and he becomes a high yield Bond investor he has no idea why he doesn't know what a high yield bond is he doesn't understand what the dangers are he doesn't understand how to pick a high Bond manager but he seduced by that 6% versus zero

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 然后他就成了一名高收益债券投资者。他根本不知道为什么，他不知道什么是高收益债券，他不了解其中的危险是什么，他也不懂得如何挑选高收益债券的基金经理。但他被这“6%”与“零”的差距诱惑了（seduced）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and all around the investment world today people are chasing return they don't like the low returns that are available on safe instruments they're going for the for the Gusto they're going for riskier instruments and they're doing it mindlessly

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 今天，在整个投资界，人们都在追逐回报（chasing return）。他们不喜欢安全工具上提供的低迷回报，他们为了刺激（going for the Gusto），为了追求收益而转向风险更高的工具，而且他们做得非常盲目（mindlessly）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and uh I promise you I'd mentioned some memos I thought forgot to do that but if you go back that I wrote One in March of ' 07 called the race to the bottom and I talked about the fact that when people are number one eager to invest and number two not sufficiently risk conscious they do risky things and when people do risky things the market becomes a risky place

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而且呃，我答应过你们我会提到一些备忘录，我以为我忘了，但如果你回头去查，我在 07 年 3 月写过一篇名为《逐底竞争》（The Race to the Bottom）的备忘录。我在里面谈到了一个事实：当人们第一，极度渴望投资；第二，缺乏足够的风险意识时，他们就会做出危险的举动。而当人们做出危险的举动时，市场就会变成一个危险的地方。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and that's why Buffett says the less Prudence with which others conduct their Affairs the greater the Prudence with which we must conduct our own Affairs and that is going on now to some extent because people can't get a good return from safe instruments they're going into the risky ones and they're bidding you know so there's a there's a race to the bottom it's like an auction

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这就是为什么巴菲特说：“别人在处理他们的事务时越不谨慎，我们在处理自己的事务时就必须越谨慎。” 这在某种程度上正是现在正在发生的事情。因为人们无法从安全的工具中获得丰厚的回报，他们就会转向有风险的工具，并且他们在盲目竞价。你知道，所以这存在着一场“逐底竞争”，就像一场拍卖会。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now if you want to buy a painting at sbe's there's an auction and the painting goes to the person who pays the highest price but in the investment world it's a reverse auction well sometimes you pay highest price but sometimes you you bid in lowest return

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果你想在苏富比（Sotheby's）买一幅画，那里会举行一场拍卖，这幅画会归属于出价最高的人。但在投资世界里，这是一场“反向拍卖”（reverse auction）。嗯，有时你是支付最高的价格，但有时你是以“最低的回报率”在竞标（bid in lowest return）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so there's a there's a uh there's a bond that's going to be issued by a company I say I demand 7% interest and this fell says no I'll take take six and that guy says I'll take five I say I want protective Covenant to make sure that the company can't do things that that ruins its own creditworthiness he says I'll do it with less covenants and that guy says I'll take I'll do it with no covenants

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 比如这里有一家……呃，有一家公司要发行债券。我说我要求 7% 的利息；而这个家伙说不，我接受 6%；那边的家伙说，我接受 5%。我说我需要保护性条款（protective Covenant），以确保公司不能做出破坏其自身信用资质的事情；他说，我可以接受更少的条款；而那边的家伙说，我接受完全没有保护条款！

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what happens the bond is issued at 5% with no covenants and that's the race to the bottom and anybody who participates in that Bond probably you know could be making a mistake and that's going on now not to the same terrible extent that it was in ' 06 and 07 but you got to be be careful today

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 结果发生了什么？这支债券以 5% 的利率发行，而且没有任何保护条款。这就是“逐底竞争”。而任何参与购买那支债券的人，可能……你知道，可能正在犯下一个大错。这正是现在正在发生的事情，虽然还没到 06 年和 07 年那种可怕的程度，但今天你必须得非常小心。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: Oak tre's motto for the last three and a half years has been moved forward but with caution caution has to be a very important component of everybody's actions today well thank you very much for being with me and I hope you enjoyed it and uh uh when I think of more stuff I'll come back thank you so much

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 橡树资本在过去三年半里的座右铭一直是：“前进，但要保持谨慎（moved forward but with caution）。” 谨慎必须成为今天每个人行动中极其重要的组成部分。好了，非常感谢大家与我共度这段时光，希望你们喜欢。而且，呃，呃，等我想到更多要分享的东西时，我会再来的。非常感谢大家！