章节 1：什么是风险与投资者的能力测试

📝 本节摘要：

本节探讨了风险的定义以及它如何作为衡量投资者能力的终极标准。霍华德·马克斯通过对比不同基金经理在市场涨跌中的表现，指出真正的投资能力在于“不对称性”——在市场好时能获取同等收益，在市场差时能有效减少损失。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: hi I'm Howard marks and this is how to think about risk the title of this class is how to think about risk that's an important title not what to think how to think

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 大家好，我是霍华德·马克斯，这是关于“如何思考风险”的课程，这节课的标题是“如何思考风险”，这个标题很重要，它教的不是“思考什么”，而是“如何思考”。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the first question is what is risk risk in my opinion is the ultimate test of an Investor's skill

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第一个问题是，什么是风险？在我看来，风险是对投资者能力的终极考验。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the return alone doesn't tell you how good a job the manager did the key question is you see the return you must ask how much risk did the manager bear to get that return

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 单看回报率并不能告诉你这位基金经理做得有多好，关键问题在于，当你看到回报时，你必须问：基金经理为了获得这个回报承担了多少风险？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now let's look at this range of managers what we posit is that the market is up 10% or down 10%

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在让我们来看看不同类型的基金经理，我们假设市场上涨10%或下跌10%。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now let's look at some individual managers the first one is up 10 when the Market's up 10 and down 10 when the Market's down 10 ACC lishes nothing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在我们来看看一些具体的基金经理，第一位在市场上涨10%时收益10%，在市场下跌10%时亏损10%，这毫无建树。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you might as well have invested in an index fund that emulates the performance of the market no skill no value added

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你还不如去投资一只追踪市场表现的指数基金（Index Fund），这体现不出任何能力，也没有创造附加值（Value Added）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now let's look at the second one up 20 when the market goes up 10 down 20 when the market goes down 10 no skill no value added just a lot of aggressiveness

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在看看第二位，市场上涨10%时他涨20%，市场下跌10%时他跌20%，同样没有体现能力，没有附加值，只是非常激进（Aggressiveness）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what about this one up five when the Market's up 10 down five when the Market's down 10 again no selection ability no discernment no value added just defensiveness

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么这位呢？市场上涨10%时他涨5%，市场下跌10%时他跌5%，同样，没有选股能力（Selection Ability），没有洞察力（Discernment），没有附加值，仅仅是具备防御性（Defensiveness）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you don't need help in achieving that and you sure shouldn't pay a lot for it

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你不需要别人的帮助就能做到这一点，而且你绝对不应该为此支付高昂的费用。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but what about the next one he or she is up 15 when the Market's up 10 and down 10 when the Market's down 10

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但是下一位经理呢？当市场上涨10%时，他（或她）涨了15%；当市场下跌10%时，跌了10%。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so in other words Market type losses on the downside but Superior gains on the upside value added what I call asymmetry does better in the good times than does poorly in the bad times

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 换句话说，在下行期承受市场同等水平的损失，但在上行期获得了超额收益，这就是附加值，我称之为“不对称性（Asymmetry）”——在好光景中的表现优于在坏光景中的表现。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but what about this one and I think this is the most interest I think maybe it characterizes Me Maybe it char izes oak tree to some extent

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但是这一位呢？我认为这是最有趣的，我觉得这也许描绘了我的特点，也许在某种程度上也描绘了橡树资本（Oaktree）的特点。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: up 10 when the Market's up 10 down five when the Market's down 10 so Market type gains in the good times

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 市场上涨10%时收益10%，市场下跌10%时亏损5%，即在好光景中获得市场同等水平的收益。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I personally think that performing with the market when it does well is good enough and that's almost all the time nobody should have to beat the market when it does well

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我个人认为，当市场表现良好时，能与市场表现同步就已经足够好了，而这几乎占据了绝大部分时间，当市场表现良好时，没有人非得去击败市场。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but if you can do that and at the same time be ready to decline less when the market has it down spells I think that's accomplishing something very important

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但是如果你能做到这一点，并且同时准备好在市场出现下行期（Down Spells）时减少跌幅，我认为这就是取得了一项非常重要的成就。

章节 2：风险是损失的概率，无法被量化

📝 本节摘要：

本节中，马克斯反驳了学术界将“波动性”等同于风险的观点。他明确指出，风险的本质是“损失的可能性”，并且无论是在事前预测还是事后复盘，风险都是一种主观判断，根本无法被精确量化。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I believe that risk is not volatility

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为，风险并不是波动性（Volatility）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the academics developing investment Theory largely at the University of Chicago in the early 60s just a couple of years before I got there adopted volatility as their measure of risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 60年代初在芝加哥大学（University of Chicago）发展投资理论（Investment Theory）的学者们——就在我到那里的前几年——采用了波动性作为衡量风险的标准。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I believe they did so largely because volatility is readily quantifiable and nothing else is

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我相信他们之所以这么做，很大程度上是因为波动性很容易被量化（Quantifiable），而其他的都无法量化。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I think volatility can be an indicator of the presence of risk a symptom if you will but it's not risk itself

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为波动性可以是风险存在的一个指标（Indicator），如果你愿意的话，可以称之为一种症状（Symptom），但它并不是风险本身。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so if risk is not volatility then what is it and in my opinion and in the real world sense risk is the probability of loss

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么，如果风险不是波动性，那它是什么呢？在我看来，并且在现实世界的意义上，风险就是损失的概率（Probability of Loss）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I think this is what most people mean when they say risk and I think that this is what people demand compensation for if they're going to Bear it

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为这就是大多数人说到“风险”时的真实含义，而且我认为，这也是人们在准备承担它时所要求得到的补偿（Compensation）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: uh nobody sitting around at Oak Tree says well you know uh we shouldn't make that investment because it might be volatile or uh because it might be volatile we should demand a higher return

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，在橡树资本，没有人会坐下来说，“好吧，你知道的，嗯，我们不应该做那笔投资，因为它可能会产生波动。”或者“嗯，因为它可能会有波动，所以我们应该要求更高的回报。”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: no they say that about the possibility of loss we're not going to make that investment because the possibility of loss is too high

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 不，他们谈论的是损失的可能性。“我们不会进行那笔投资，因为损失的可能性太高了。”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: or because of the possibility of loss we're going to demand a risk premium in terms of the return this is risk the possibility of loss

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 或者说，“因为存在损失的可能性，我们要在回报上要求风险溢价（Risk Premium）。”这就是风险，即损失的可能性。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now another important question is is risk quantifiable in advance and I believe it's not

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在另一个重要的问题是：风险能否被提前量化？而我认为它不能。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: like most things occurring in the future risk cannot be anything except a matter of opinion

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 就像大多数未来发生的事情一样，风险只能是一种个人观点（Matter of Opinion）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I was writing my first memo about risk in 2006 I wrote about my belief that risk is not quantifiable in advance

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 2006年，我正在写我的第一篇关于风险的备忘录（Memo）。我写下了我的信念：风险是无法提前量化的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and then I hit the return key and went on to the next section and wrote something I had never thought about before my belief that risk is unquantifiable even after the fact

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 然后我按下回车键，进入下一节，写下了一些我以前从未想过的事情：我的信念是，即使在事后（After the Fact），风险也是不可量化的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and I think this is a fascinating topic uh you buy something for a dollar and a year later you sell it for $2 was it risky

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为这是一个引人入胜的话题。嗯，你花1美元买了一样东西，一年后你以2美元卖出，这有风险吗？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and the interesting thing is that you can't tell from the outcome a profitable investment may or may not have been risky

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 有趣的是，你无法从结果中得出结论。一笔有利可图的投资可能曾经是有风险的，也可能是没有风险的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: was it a safe investment that in the case of my example was sure to double or was it a risky investment where you got lucky in terms of the outcome

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这是一笔如同我的例子中必定翻倍的安全投资呢？还是一笔你在结果上走运了的风险投资？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and as I say you can't tell from the outcome the bottom line is to me it's impossible to quantify risk in advance or even in hindsight

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 正如我所说的，你无法从结果中分辨出来。底线是，对我而言，无论是在事前还是事后，量化风险都是不可能的。

章节 3：错失机会的风险与投资的“死罪”

📝 本节摘要：

风险不仅意味着亏损。本节强调了“错失机会”同样是一种重大的风险形式。马克斯特别指出，投资中最大的错误（死罪）不是在市场高点买入，而是在市场底部恐慌抛售，从而彻底错失了随后的反弹与复苏。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the possibility of loss is not the only form of risk there are lots of forms of risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 损失的可能性并不是风险的唯一形式，风险有许多种形式。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: my last memo on the general subject it's called risk Revisited again and I talk in there about 24 or 25 different forms of risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我上一篇关于这个一般性主题的备忘录名为《重游风险》（Risk Revisited Again），在那里我谈论了24或25种不同形式的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: some serious some facius some important some less important and obscure but still it comes in many forms

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 有些很严肃，有些很滑稽（Facetious），有些很重要，有些不太重要且晦涩，但它依然有许多形式。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the risk of missing opportunities is another important risk in other words if you think about it the risk of not taking enough risk another really important form uh of risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 错失机会的风险是另一个重要的风险。换句话说，如果你仔细想想，没有承担足够风险的风险，是另一种非常重要的风险形式。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I think one of the key risks in investing is the chance of being forced out at the bottom

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为投资中最关键的风险之一是可能被迫在底部出局。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: which is a bigger mistake buying at the high and seeing a decline or selling out at the low and missing out on the recovery clearly it's the ladder

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 哪一个是更大的错误：在高点买入并眼看它下跌，还是在低点卖出并错失随后的复苏？显然是后者（Latter）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: if you buy at a high and you experience a decline if you're able to hold throughout and not lose your nerve the next high is usually higher than the last High

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果你在高点买入并经历下跌，只要你能一路持有并且不失去勇气，下一个高点通常会比上一个高点更高。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the fact that you experienced a downward fluctuation might have been uncomfortable for a little while but by the time the new high is achieved you're you're you're back to to your cost and more

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你经历了向下波动（Downward Fluctuation）的事实可能会让你暂时感到不舒服，但当达到新的高点时，你就回本了，甚至赚得更多。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but if you sell at the bottom and miss out on the subsequent recovery that means you've gotten off the track of investing and uh may never get back on

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但如果你在底部抛售并错过了随后的复苏，这意味着你已经偏离了投资的轨道，并且嗯，可能永远也回不来了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: in my opinion selling at the bottom it's the cardinal sin in investing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 在我看来，在底部抛售是投资中的“死罪”（Cardinal Sin）。

章节 4：未知与无知的哲学思考

📝 本节摘要：

本节从哲学的角度探讨了风险的本质。马克斯引用了彼得·伯恩斯坦和G.K.切斯特顿的观点，指出风险源于我们对未来的无知。世界看似充满规律和数学逻辑，但实际上隐藏着不可预测的“尾部事件”（极端事件），真正有趣且危险的事情往往发生在常态之外。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now I want to get a little philosophical one of my great Heroes Peter Bernstein probably the best thinker in a philosophic sense and and a real investment Sage who sadly passed away around 2009 one said essentially risk says we don't know what's going to happen we walk every moment into the unknown

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在我想谈点哲学的。我的一位伟大英雄彼得·伯恩斯坦（Peter Bernstein）——他可能是在哲学意义上最棒的思想家，也是一位真正的投资圣哲，令人惋惜地在2009年左右去世了——他曾说过，本质上，风险表明我们不知道将会发生什么，我们每时每刻都在步入未知。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: he said there's a range of outcomes and we don't know where the actual outcome is going to fall within the range and often we don't know what the range is

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他说，存在着一系列的结果，而我们不知道实际的结果会落在这个范围的哪里，而且通常我们连这个范围是什么都不知道。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so in other words we have ignorance to varying degrees about what the future holds and it is from this ignorance uh that risk ensues if we knew what was going to happen by definition there would be no risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 换句话说，对于未来会怎样，我们有着不同程度的无知（Ignorance），正是由于这种无知，嗯，风险才随之产生。如果我们知道将会发生什么，根据定义，风险也就不存在了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: in the memo that I mentioned before risk Revisited again there's a great quote uh that I got from a Peter Bernstein memo and I thought it was so important that I took it over word for word in my memo

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 在我之前提到的备忘录《重游风险》中，有一段很棒的引言，嗯，是我从彼得·伯恩斯坦的备忘录里摘录的，我认为它太重要了，所以我在我的备忘录里一字不差地引用了它。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: it's from GK Chesterton who was a English uh writer and he said the following and I'm going to give it to you word for word uh because it's so important

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 它出自G.K.切斯特顿（GK Chesterton）之手，他是一位英国的，嗯，作家，他说了下面这段话，我打算一字不差地念给你们听，嗯，因为它太重要了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world or even that it is a reasonable one

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们这个世界的真正麻烦，并不在于它是一个不合理的世界，甚至也不在于它是一个合理的世界。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable but not quite

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 最常见的麻烦是，它近乎合理，但又不完全合理。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: life is not an illogicality yet it is a trap for logicians it looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is its exactitude is obvious but its inexactitude is hidden its wildness lies in weight

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 生活并不是不符合逻辑，然而它却是逻辑学家的陷阱。它看起来总是比实际情况多那么一点数学性和规律性；它的精确性是显而易见的，但它的不精确性却是隐藏起来的，它的狂野潜伏在暗处等待着爆发（注：原文weight为wait的同音口误或字幕识别错误）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: in other words we know what's likely to happen we know the other things that probably could happen instead we have little appreciation for the things that are highly unlikely to happen but could

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 换句话说，我们知道什么可能发生，我们知道其他可能取而代之发生的事情，但我们很少去体会那些极不可能发生但确实可能发生的事情。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and these are what we call in modern day terms the uh tail events

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而这些就是我们用现代术语所称的，嗯，尾部事件（Tail Events）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: my friend Rick kanaine once said that 96% of financial history has occurred within two standard deviations but everything interesting has happened outside of two standard deviations that's the wild part

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我的朋友里克·凯恩（Rick Kanaine）曾经说过，96%的金融历史都发生在两个标准差（Standard Deviations）之内，但所有有趣的事情都发生在两个标准差之外。那就是狂野的部分。

章节 5：理解风险的四个基本原则

📝 本节摘要：

本节详细阐述了理解风险的四个基本原则。第一，风险意味着“可能发生的事情比将要发生的事情多”；第二，未来不是固定的，而是一个包含各种可能性的“概率分布”；第三，知道概率并不等同于知道最终结果（因为我们生活在唯一的“样本”而非充满可能性的“宇宙”中）；第四，在决策中单纯依赖“预期价值”可能是存在谬误的，因为有时候预期价值对应的结果本身就不会发生，甚至最高预期价值的选项可能暗含着令人无法承受的“破产风险”。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so now let me try in a slightly philosophical sense to reflect to you how I think about risk how I think you might consider risk through four basic points

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么现在，让我尝试以一种稍微偏哲学的意义，向你们反映我是如何思考风险的，以及我认为你们可以通过四个基本原则来考量风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: number one there was a professor at the London Business School who said risk means more things can happen then will happen

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第一点，伦敦商学院（London Business School）的一位教授曾说过，风险意味着可能发生的事情比实际将会发生的事情要多。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: for most events that lie in the future there are a number of things that could occur we don't know which one it will be that's where the risk comes in more things can happen then will happen

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 对于大多数处于未来的事件，有许多事情可能会发生，但我们不知道具体会是哪一件，这就是风险的来源：可能发生的事情比将会发生的事情多。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: number two as a result of that the future should be viewed not as a fixed outcome that's destined to happen and capable of being predicted but as a range of possibilities and hopefully because you have some insight into their respective likelihoods as a probability distribution the most likely the less likely the unlikely but not impossible

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第二点，正因为如此，未来不应被视为一个注定发生且能够被预测的固定结果，而应被视为一系列的可能性；并且希望因为你对它们各自的可能性有所洞察，将其视为一个概率分布（Probability Distribution）——最可能的、较不可能的、以及不太可能但并非不可能的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: number three it's important to accept that even when you know the probabilities that doesn't mean you know what's going to happen uh this is uh something that I think many people fail to grasp

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第三点，重要的是要接受，即使你知道了概率，那也不意味着你就知道将会发生什么，嗯，我认为这是许多人未能掌握的一点。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I play a lot of back gamon and a lot of my examples uh on risk and uncertainty uh come from the game of back gamut which is played with a pair of dice and when you roll your pair of dice we know exactly in advance what the probabilities are

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我经常打双陆棋（Backgammon），我很多关于风险和不确定性的例子，嗯，都来自双陆棋这个游戏，它是用一对骰子来玩的，当你掷出一对骰子时，我们能提前确切地知道概率是多少。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: each die has six sides there are 36 possible combinations of the six sides we know how many of them for example will add up to seven and seven is the most likely single outcome 1 16 25 34 43 52 61

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 每个骰子有六个面，这六个面有36种可能的组合，我们知道其中有多少种加起来等于7，例如，7是最可能的单一结果：1和6，2和5，3和4，4和3，5和2，6和1。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: there are six possibilities out of the 36 that will give you a seven that's the most likely outcome uh six out of 36 that's 16.7% probability

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 36种组合中有6种可能让你得到7，这是最可能的结果，嗯，36分之6，也就是16.7%的概率。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now what if instead you want to know about a six well with a six there are five possibilities five possibilities out of 36 that's a little less than a seventh

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么，如果你想知道得到6的情况呢？对于6，有5种可能性，36分之5，略低于七分之一。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and then when you get down to uh the number two is's only one one one one out of 36 and for the number 12 only one 66 one out of 36 both of those are about a 3% probability of happening

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 然后当你降到，嗯，数字2时，只有一种情况即两个1，36分之一；对于数字12，只有一种情况即两个6，36分之一，这两者发生的概率大约都是3%。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so we know exactly what the probability distribution looks like uh uh we know what's the most likely the other likely possibilities and the unlikely possibilities we still don't know what's going to happen so knowing the probabilities does not eliminate the uncertainty

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以我们确切地知道概率分布看起来是什么样的，嗯嗯，我们知道最可能发生的是什么、其他可能发生的情况以及不太可能的情况，但我们仍然不知道究竟会发生什么。因此，知道概率并不能消除不确定性（Uncertainty）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I work with a professor at Warden named Chris gsy and the way he put it to me one time we live in the sample not the universe

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我和沃顿商学院（Wharton）一位名叫克里斯·格西（Chris Geczy）的教授共事，有一次他对我这么说：我们生活在样本（Sample）中，而不是宇宙（Universe）里。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: in other words the universe statistics like I just explained for the dice determine the things that could happen and maybe their possibility but we live in the sample we only have one outcome and therein lies the uncertainty

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 换句话说，就像我刚刚解释的骰子一样，宇宙的统计数据（Universe Statistics）决定了可能发生的事情，也许还决定了它们发生的可能性，但我们生活在样本中，我们只能得到一个结果，不确定性就存在于此。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: a great way to think about this is on Super Bowl morning in 2016 they had a former football player on uh and he said what I thought was one of the smartest things about uh probability I had ever heard

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 思考这个问题的一个好方法是，在2016年超级碗（Super Bowl）比赛的那个早上，他们请来了一位前橄榄球运动员，嗯，他说了一段我认为是我听过的关于嗯，概率的最聪明的话之一。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: this game was Denver versus Carolina and Carolina was heavily favored and they asked him who he thought would win and he said the following Carolina wins eight times out of 10 this could be one of the two

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那场比赛是丹佛队对阵卡罗莱纳队，卡罗莱纳队非常被看好，他们问他认为谁会赢，他说了以下的话：打十次卡罗莱纳能赢八次，但今天这场比赛可能是另外那两次中的一次。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now this gives you the UN the essence of probability and the essence of risk uh most people if they hear that something's 80% likely to happen they say well then I guess we know what's going to happen I guess they might might as well not play the game

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这为你揭示了概率的本质以及风险的本质，嗯，大多数人如果听说某件事有80%的可能发生，他们会说，好吧，那我猜我们知道会发生什么了，我猜他们甚至都不用去比赛了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: no 80% likely means that the other team should win one game out of five so have to play the game because we have to figure out which game this will be

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 不，80%的可能性意味着另一支球队在五场比赛中应该赢一场，所以必须去比赛，因为我们必须弄清楚今天这场会是哪一种情况。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and that leads to number four I take Dimson statement that uh risk means more things can happen than will happen and I turn it over even though many things can happen only one will

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这引出了第四点。我引用迪姆森（Dimson）的观点，即嗯，风险意味着可能发生的事情比将会发生的事情多，然后我把它反过来：尽管许多事情都可能发生，但只有一件事情会真正发生。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: thus the expected value the probability weighted average of the possible outcomes which is the basis on which people make uh many decisions it can be irrelevant

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此，预期价值（Expected Value），即可能结果的概率加权平均值（Probability Weighted Average），它是人们做出嗯许多决策的基础，但它可能是毫不相干的（Irrelevant）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: they take each outcome they multiply it by the probability they add them up and they get the expected outcome and many people will say well we're going to take the course of action that has the highest expected value

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他们取每一个结果，乘以其发生的概率，把它们加起来，然后得出预期结果，许多人会说，好吧，我们要采取具有最高预期价值的行动方案。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but sometimes the expected value isn't even among the possibilities now this sounds highly counterintuitive but think about this let's consider a course of action which has four possible outcomes 2 4 6 and 8 and let's say that we conclude that each of those four is equally likely to happen

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但有时预期价值甚至不在那些可能性之中。这听起来非常违背直觉，但想一想，让我们考虑一个有四种可能结果（2、4、6和8）的行动方案，假设我们得出结论，这四个结果发生的可能性完全相等。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so what we do is we take each one 2 4 6 8 we multiply it by 25% the possibility of it happening and we add it together and in this case the the expected value of 2 468 is five but five can can't happen remember I said the outcomes can be 2 4 6 and eight

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以我们所做的是，把每一个结果（2、4、6、8）乘以它发生的概率25%，然后把它们加在一起，在这种情况下，2、4、6、8的预期价值是5，但5是不可能发生的，记住我说的，结果只能是2、4、6和8。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so it I'm I'm only going through this to show you the possible fallacy of expected value there's another problem with expected value

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，我讲这些只是为了向你们展示预期价值潜在的谬误（Fallacy）。预期价值还有一个问题。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: because even though course of action a can have a higher expected value than course of action B course of action a may include some possibilities that you just can't live with

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因为即便行动方案A的预期价值可能高于行动方案B，行动方案A也可能包含一些你根本无法承受（Can't Live With）的可能性。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: maybe course of action a uh includes some remote possibility that you lose all youry money and even though it's highly unlikely you you may say I just don't want to contemplate that

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 也许行动方案A，嗯，包含某种你会亏掉所有钱的极低可能性，即使它极不可能发生，你也可能会说，我就是不想去冒那个险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so you don't take a you take b instead which has a slightly lower expected value uh but without the risk of Ruin

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以你不选择A，而是选择B，B的预期价值稍微低一点，嗯，但没有破产的风险（Risk of Ruin）。

章节 6：风险的违背直觉与反常特性

📝 本节摘要：

本节探讨了风险的违背直觉与反常特性。马克斯通过荷兰取消交通标志和登山设备升级两个例子，说明风险不仅在于活动本身，更在于参与者的行为方式。在投资中，最危险的往往是人们认为没有风险的时候；而当人们感到恐惧并保持谨慎时，风险反而降低。同时，风险是反常的：资产价格下跌时风险降低，而价格上涨时风险反而增加。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now moving on a little bit to to talk about the character of risk I think it's interesting to note that risk is counterintuitive

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在稍微转移一下话题，谈谈风险的特征，我认为值得注意的是，风险是违背直觉的（Counterintuitive）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: they did an experiment in the town of draon Holland they took away all the traffic lights traffic signs and Road markings

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他们在荷兰的德拉赫滕（Drachten）镇做了一个实验，他们撤掉了所有的红绿灯、交通标志和道路标线。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what do you think happened to the level of accidents and fatalities it went down

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你认为事故和死亡率发生了什么变化？它下降了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: how could it possibly have gone down when all the road AIDS were gone and the answer is people said oh there are no more traffic signs traffic lights or Road markings I'd better drive more carefully

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当所有的道路辅助设施（Road Aids）都没了的时候，它怎么可能会下降呢？答案是人们会说：“哦，这里不再有交通标志、红绿灯或道路标线了，我最好开得更小心一点。”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: on the other hand Jill fredson is uh an expert on a avalanches and uh she said that better gear is created every year which makes it easier and more feasible to to climb

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 另一方面，吉尔·弗雷德斯顿（Jill Fredston）是，嗯，一位雪崩（Avalanches）专家，嗯，她说每年都会制造出更好的装备，这让攀登变得更容易、更可行。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and yet the risk the number of fatalities and accidents in Climbing doesn't go down

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 然而风险，即攀登中的死亡和事故数量并没有下降。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: how can that be obviously counterintuitive people see that better gear is being invented and they say Well since we have better gear we can do riskier things and the level of accidents and fatalities is maintained even in in spite of the arrival of better gear

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这怎么可能呢？显然是违背直觉的，人们看到更好的装备被发明出来，他们会说：“好吧，既然我们有了更好的装备，我们可以做更危险的事情”，因此，即使有了更好的装备，事故和死亡的水平依然维持不变。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so if you think about those two examples you realize that the risk of an activity doesn't just lie in the activity in itself but importantly in how the participants approach it

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，如果你思考一下这两个例子，你会意识到一项活动的风险不仅在于活动本身，更重要的是在于参与者如何对待它。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the degree of risk present in a market or in an investment doesn't come just from the market or the investment but how people participate in that investment

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 一个市场或一项投资中存在的风险程度，不仅仅来源于市场或投资本身，还来源于人们如何参与该项投资。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and if they conclude that the market has become safer they may say that that frees them to do riskier things

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果他们得出结论认为市场变得更安全了，他们可能会说，这让他们可以放手去做更危险的事情。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and that's why I believe that risk is low when investors behave prudently and High when they don't

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这就是为什么我相信，当投资者行事谨慎（Prudently）时风险很低，而当他们不谨慎时风险很高。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: just as risk is counterintuitive I believe that risk is perverse

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 正如风险是违背直觉的一样，我相信风险也是反常的（Perverse）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: as I said the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's there's no risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 正如我所说，世界上最危险的事情就是相信没有风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: a high level of risk Consciousness on the other hand tends to mitigate risk so when people say well that's really risky if they take a a cautious approach then it becomes safe

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 另一方面，高度的风险意识（Risk Consciousness）往往会减轻风险，因此，当人们说“嗯，这真的很危险”时，如果他们采取谨慎的态度，那么它就变得安全了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: as an asset declines in price most people say oh it's risky look how it's falling but with the lower price it actually becomes less risky

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当一项资产价格下跌时，大多数人会说：“哦，这很危险，看它跌得多惨”，但随着价格走低，它实际上变得不那么危险了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: as an asset appreciates most people say that's a great asset look how well it's doing but the rising price makes it riskier so again pervert

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当一项资产升值时，大多数人会说：“那是一项很棒的资产，看它表现得多好”，但不断上涨的价格使其变得更具风险，所以，这又是反常的（注：原文pervert为口误，意指perverse）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and this perversity is one of the main things that render most people incapable of understanding risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而这种反常性，正是导致大多数人无法理解风险的主要原因之一。

章节 7：风险的隐蔽性与欺骗性

📝 本节摘要：

本节指出了风险的隐蔽与欺骗特质。 马克斯引用巴菲特“潮水退去才知道谁在裸泳”的名言，以及加州房屋地震的缺陷比喻，生动地说明：在顺境中，风险可能长时间蛰伏而不爆发；这种损失发生的低频率，往往会欺骗投资者，使他们严重低估一项投资或活动中实际蕴含的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I think it's important to grasp a concept risk is hidden and risk is deceptive

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为掌握一个概念很重要：风险是隐蔽的（Hidden），并且风险是具有欺骗性的（Deceptive）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: loss is what happens when risk the potential for loss collides with negative events

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 损失是当风险——即损失的潜在可能性——与负面事件相撞时所发生的结果。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you know Buffett says everything the greatest and he said that uh it's only when the tide goes out that we find out who's been swimming naked

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你知道，巴菲特（Buffett）把一切都说得最透彻，他说，嗯，只有当潮水退去时，我们才会发现谁一直在裸泳。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: uh it's only in times of testing that investors and their strategies uh are examined uh for the risk they really held

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，只有在接受考验的时期，投资者及其策略，嗯，才会被检验出他们实际承担的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: an example of that I wrote in my book The most important thing uh those of us who live in California as I did at the time our houses might contain a construction flaw

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我在我的书《投资最重要的事》（The Most Important Thing）中写过一个例子。嗯，像我当时那样住在加州（California）的人，我们的房子可能包含某种建筑缺陷（Construction Flaw）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but if all is well that flaw sits there for year after year and doesn't produce any loss

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但是，如果一切安好，那个缺陷就会年复一年地留在那里，不会造成任何损失。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: it's only when the earthquakes occur that the house is tested and the flaws are disclosed and the risk the potential for loss turns into actual loss

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 只有当地震发生时，房子才会经受考验，缺陷才会暴露出来，而风险——损失的可能性——才会转化为实际的损失。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so similarly an investment can be risky but if it only exists in salutary environments it may look like a winter for a long time and it may look safe for a long time

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 同样地，一项投资可能是有风险的，但如果它仅仅身处有利的环境（Salutary Environments）中，它可能很长一段时间看起来像个赢家（注：原文winter疑为winner的口误或识别错误，译文以winner语义直译），并且可能很长一段时间看起来很安全。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the fact that an investment is susceptible to a risk that occurs extremely rarely uh what I call an improbable disaster what Nasim Nicholas TB called The Black Swan in his excellent book

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 一项投资容易受到极罕见风险的影响——嗯，也就是我所说的“不大可能发生的灾难”（Improbable Disaster），纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）在其出色的著作中所称的“黑天鹅”（Black Swan）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: The infrequency of loss can make it appear that the investment is safer than it really is

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 损失发生的低频率（Infrequency），会使这项投资看起来比它的实际情况更安全。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and of course that's an entirely risky uh conclusion

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当然，那是一个完全危险的，嗯，结论。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so uh the infrequency with which uh risk turns into loss uh can be deceptive uh and cause people to underrate the risk involved in an activ

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此，嗯，风险转化为损失的低频率，嗯，可能会具有欺骗性，嗯，并导致人们低估某项活动（注：原文activ应为activity的截断）中包含的风险。

章节 8：风险与资产质量无关：价格决定风险

📝 本节摘要：

本节打破了“好资产就是安全，差资产就是危险”的传统观念。马克斯通过“漂亮50”和高收益债券的历史经验指出，任何高质量资产如果买入价格过高都会变得极具风险，而低质量资产如果价格足够便宜也可以是安全的。投资成功的关键不在于“买好资产”，而在于“买得好”。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: one of the most important things for every investor to learn is that risk is not a function of asset quality this too sounds counterintuitive

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 对每一位投资者来说，需要学习的最重要的事情之一就是：风险并不是资产质量的函数。这听起来同样有悖直觉。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: there's a belief that high quality assets are safe and lowquality assets are risky I believe quite the opposite a high quality asset can be priced so high that it's risky

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 有一种信念认为高质量资产是安全的，而低质量资产是有风险的。我的看法恰恰相反，一项高质量资产的价格可能会被定得如此之高，以至于它变得具有风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I came to to work in this industry in September of 1969 the banks at that time and I was hired by one of them engaged in what was called nifty50 investing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我在1969年9月进入这个行业工作，当时的银行——我被其中一家雇佣——参与了一种被称为“漂亮50”（Nifty Fifty）的投资。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: they invested in what were considered to be the 50 best and fastest growing companies in America companies so good that nothing bad could ever happen and there was no price too high for their stocks

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他们投资于被认为是美国最好、增长最快的50家公司。这些公司如此之好，以至于人们认为绝不可能发生任何坏事，而且对于它们的股票来说，没有任何价格是过高的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and if you bought those great companies the day I got to work in September of 1969 and if you held their stocks tenaciously for the next five years you lost more than 90% of your money because the prices paid were just too high and unsustainable

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 而如果你在1969年9月我开始上班的那一天买入了那些伟大的公司，并且在接下来的五年里顽强地（Tenaciously）持有它们的股票，你损失了超过90%的资金，因为你支付的价格实在是太高了，且不可持续。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and roughly half of those companies did run into serious fundamental problems their quality alone or their perceive quality did not impart to them the safety that people thought it would

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 并且，大约一半的公司确实遇到了严重的基本面问题，单靠它们的质量，或者说人们所感知的质量，并没有赋予它们人们想象中的那种安全性。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and in fact because people thought they were so safe they bid them up to prices which in fact made them risky

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 事实上，正是因为人们认为它们如此安全，从而把它们的价格推高到了极点，这反而让它们变得危险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: on the other hand a lowquality asset can be cheap enough to be safe again this seems counterintuitive and maybe even perverse

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 另一方面，一项低质量的资产如果足够便宜，也是可以变安全的。这再次看起来有悖直觉，甚至可能是反常的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: when I left the world of equities in 1978 I was asked by City Bank to start their activity in high yield bonds and now I was investing in the lowest quality uh public companies in America and making money steadily and safely

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当我在1978年离开股票世界时，花旗银行（Citibank）邀请我去开启他们的高收益债券（High Yield Bonds）业务。于是，我现在投资于美国质量最低的，嗯，上市公司，但我却在稳定且安全地赚钱。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the ju toos of these events taught me an important lesson uh that I want to share sh with you uh so that you don't have to learn it firsthand

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这些事件的并置对比（Juxtaposition）（注：原文识别有误，应为juxtaposition）给我上了重要的一课，嗯，我想与你们分享，嗯，这样你们就不必亲身去经历教训了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: my conclusion was it's not what you buy it's what you pay and investment success doesn't come from buying good things but from buying things well and if you don't know the difference you have to study up um

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我的结论是，关键不在于你买了什么（What You Buy），而在于你付出的价格（What You Pay）。投资组合的成功并不来源于买“好东西”（Buying Good Things），而是来源于“买得好”（Buying Things Well）。如果你不懂得这两者的区别，你需要深入学习，嗯。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: there are no assets that are so good that they can't become overpriced and dangerous there are very few assets that are so bad that they can't be cheap enough to be attractive as Investments

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 没有任何资产能好到无法被高估并变得危险的地步；也很少有资产能差到无法跌至足够便宜，从而作为投资具备吸引力的地步。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so this is a a simple concept it sounds like to me but I hope you'll spend a lot of time thinking about its consequences

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以这听起来像是一个很简单的概念，但我希望你们能花大量的时间去思考它所带来的影响。

章节 9：风险与回报的真实关系

📝 本节摘要：

本节探讨了风险与回报之间的真实关系。马克斯反驳了传统金融学中“高风险带来高回报”的线性假设，指出这种表述极具误导性。他提出了一种新的钟形曲线模型：承担更高风险并不意味着必定获得更高回报，而是意味着预期回报增加的同时，可能结果的范围变得更宽，且可能出现的最坏情况会变得更糟。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now let's talk for a while about the relationship between risk and return this is one of the most important of all the topics

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在让我们花点时间谈谈风险与回报之间的关系。这是所有话题中最重要的话题之一。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: when I got to University of Chicago The Chicago School of theory with regard to investment had just been developed mostly between 62 and 64 and I arrived in ' 67

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当我进入芝加哥大学时，关于投资的芝加哥学派理论刚刚发展起来，主要是在1962年到1964年之间，而我是在1967年到达的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and there was a graphic that we saw all the time it shows uh return on the vertical axis risk on the horizontal axis and an upward sloping line to the right

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那里有一张我们经常看到的图表，它显示，嗯，纵轴是回报，横轴是风险，以及一条向右上方倾斜的线。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: we call that a positive correlation one goes up the other goes up as well

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们称之为正相关（Positive Correlation）——一个上升，另一个也随之上升。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now most people would look at that graphic and say well that means two things that uh riskier assets have higher returns and if you want to make more money the way to do it is to take more risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在大多数人看着那张图表会说，嗯，这意味着两件事：一是高风险资产拥有更高的回报；二是如果你想赚更多的钱，方法就是承担更多的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I think that's a terrible formulation very simply if it were true that riskier assets produce higher returns then they wouldn't be riskier would they

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为这是一种非常糟糕的表述。很简单，如果“高风险资产能产生高回报”是真的，那么它们就不算高风险了，不是吗？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so that can't be the right explanation

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以这不可能是正确的解释。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what the upward sloping line the positive correlation means is that Investments that are perceived as being risky have to be perceived as offering higher returns to induce people to make those Investments

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 向右上倾斜的线条——即正相关——的真正含义是：那些被认为具有风险的投资，必须被认为能够提供更高的回报，以诱导（Induce）人们去进行这些投资。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: that makes perfect sense the only thing is they don't have to deliver and it's from the possibility that the projected returns will not be delivered that the risk ensues

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这完全说得通。唯一的问题是，它们不一定非得兑现（Deliver）。正是由于这种预期回报可能无法兑现的可能性，风险才随之产生。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: when you look at the old graph the linearity of the relationship between risk and return implies a Dependable relationship and I've always felt that that was misleading

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当你看着那张旧图表时，风险与回报之间关系的线性（Linearity）暗示了一种可靠的关系（Dependable Relationship），而我一直觉得那是具有误导性的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I was never happy uh when I got out into the real world and and and had to live with the consequences and so I developed my own version of that chart

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当我步入现实世界并，并，并不得不承受其后果时，我一直对此感到不满，嗯，因此我开发了自己版本的图表。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I took some little bell-shaped probability distributions and I turned them on their side and I superimpose them on the same line

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我拿了一些小的钟形（Bell-shaped）概率分布图，把它们侧放，然后叠加在那条线上。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: it's the same underlying line just now with some embellishment

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 还是同样的那条基础线，只是现在多了一些修饰（Embellishment）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: with the old graph as you moved from left to right the risk increased and the return increased

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 在旧图表中，当你从左向右移动时，风险增加，回报也增加。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but with this new graft As you move from left to right the expected return increases just as it did in the old one

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但在这个新图表（注：原文graft疑为graph的口误）中，当你从左向右移动时，预期回报像旧图表一样增加了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but at the same time the range of possibilities becomes wider and the worst outcomes become worse

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但与此同时，可能性的范围变得更宽了，而且最坏的结果变得更糟了。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: that's risk this is the way to think about the risk return relationship

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那就是风险。这才是思考风险与回报关系的正确方式。

章节 10：应对风险：抽彩票与持续管理的足球模型

📝 本节摘要：

本节主要探讨了投资者应该如何应对和处理风险。马克斯将投资比作从碗中抽取彩票，卓越的投资者更能估算赢家和输家的比例。同时，他提出风险管理必须是持续不断的过程。他将投资组合的管理比作足球（Soccer/Football），而不是美式橄榄球（American Football）：比赛不会暂停让你换人，你必须用同一套阵容在攻防之间随时无缝切换，不断平衡。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so now let's talk a little more about how risk should be handled what determines investment success and the best way I have uh to communicate this to you in my opinion is like the act of pulling one Lottery Ticket the outcome from a bowl full of lottery tickets the full range of possible outcomes

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么现在，让我们再多谈一点应该如何处理风险，是什么决定了投资的成功，嗯，在我看来，向你们传达这一点的最好方式，就像是抽一张彩票（Lottery Ticket）的行为——从装满彩票的碗里抽出结果，代表了所有可能结果的完整范围。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: as Dimson said we're going to have one outcome there could be many outcomes and the outcome that occurs never amounts in my opinion to anything but one ticket pulled from among the many

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 正如迪姆森（Dimson）所说，我们只会得到一个结果，尽管可能会有许多种结果，但在我看来，最终发生的结果无非就是从众多彩票中抽出的那一张而已。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: in my opinion Superior investors have a better sense for the tickets in the bowl for What proportion of them are winners and What proportion of them are losers than do most other people

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 在我看来，卓越的投资者对于碗里的彩票有着比大多数人更好的直觉，知道其中有多大比例是赢家，多大比例是输家。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: that's what makes them Superior and thus they have a better grasp of whether it's worth participating in a any given Lottery and how heavily to bet

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这正是使他们卓越的原因，因此，他们能更好地把握是否值得参与某个特定的抽奖，以及下注多少。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now how should each of us deal with risk I think that risk is best assessed through subjective judgment

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在，我们每个人应该如何应对风险？我认为风险最好通过主观判断（Subjective Judgment）来评估。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: since risk cannot be measured gauging it has to be the province of subject matter experts and I'm clearly uh jist on the subject of quantification

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 既然风险无法被衡量，那么估算它就必须是主题专家（Subject Matter Experts）的领域，而显然，嗯，我对量化（Quantification）这个话题抱有保留态度（注：原文jist疑为prejudiced/jaundiced的误听或截断）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I believe imprecise qualitative expert opinion about the probability of loss is far more useful than precise but largely irrelevant numbers concerning past and projected volatility

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为，关于损失概率的不精确的、定性的（Qualitative）专家意见，远比那些关于过去和预测波动率的精确但大多无关紧要的数字有用得多。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so what is the essence of risk management Peter Bernstein again my my hero he said because of the existence of risk things are going to be different from what we expect from time to time

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么风险管理的本质是什么？再次引用我的，我的英雄彼得·伯恩斯坦的话，他说，因为风险的存在，事情时不时会变得与我们预期的不同。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: how well are we prepared to deal when it's different this is a great formulation there's no challenge dealing with the events when they turn out as we expected

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当情况不同时，我们准备得有多充分？这是一个极好的表述，当事件如我们预期般发生时，应对它们没有任何挑战。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the question is are we prepared for when they don't turn out as expected

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 问题是，当它们没有如期发生时，我们准备好了吗？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: according to Bernstein risk just means things are uncertain good things can happen as well as bad things but I think the definition of risk should emphasize the bad things

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 按照伯恩斯坦的说法，风险仅仅意味着事情是不确定的，好事情可能发生，坏事情也可能发生，但我认为，风险的定义应该强调坏事情。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and thus I would say risk is the possibility that from the range of Uncertain outcomes an unfavorable one will be the one that materialize izes

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此我要说，风险就是，在一系列不确定的结果中，一个不利的结果最终成为现实（Materializes）的可能性。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: it can consist of suffering a permanent loss of capital when bad things happen it can also consist of missing out on gains when good things happen these things have to be balanced

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 它可能包括在坏事发生时遭受资本的永久性损失（Permanent Loss of Capital），也可能包括在好事发生时错失收益，这些事情必须被平衡（Balanced）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: let's say you think that if you buy something today there's a one-third chance it'll be down in six or 12 months what will you do about that risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 假设你认为，如果你今天买入某样东西，它在6个月或12个月后有三分之一的概率会下跌。你会如何应对这个风险？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: many people will say well I just wouldn't buy it but what do you do about the other 2third the chance that it'll be up in 6 to 12 months

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 很多人会说，“好吧，那我就不买它了。”但是，对于另外三分之二会在6到12个月内上涨的机会，你又该怎么做呢？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: how do you balance the two risks and you know in the real world we can't make decisions in one dimension we basically have to balance

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你如何平衡这两种风险？你知道，在现实世界中，我们不能在一个维度上做决定，我们基本上必须去平衡。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I think that risk is something that should be dealt with uh constantly continuously not sporadically

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为风险是应该被，嗯，不断地（Constantly）、持续地（Continuously）处理的，而不是偶尔为之（Sporadically）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: that's why I Bridal when I hear this formulation is this a risk on Market or a risk off Market

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这就是为什么当我听到“这是一个追逐风险的市场（Risk-on Market）还是一个规避风险的市场（Risk-off Market）”这种说法时，我会感到反感（Bridle）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: remember risk produces loss when bad things happen and that's when we need risk control

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 记住，当坏事发生时，风险会产生损失，而那正是我们需要风险控制（Risk Control）的时候。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but I believe we never know when bad things will happen and thus when risk control will be needed

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但我相信我们永远不知道坏事何时会发生，因此也就不知道何时需要风险控制。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I think the right model for thinking about whether we need risk control isn't American football is soccer

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为，思考我们是否需要风险控制的正确模型不是美式橄榄球（American Football），而是足球（Soccer）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: in American football the team with the ball has the offense on the field they have four tries to go 10 yards

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 在美式橄榄球中，持球的一方让进攻组上场，他们有四次机会推进10码。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: if they go 10 yards they get four more tries to go 10 more yards and if they can keep doing it they eventually score

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果他们推进了10码，他们就获得额外的四次机会再去推进另外的10码，如果他们能继续这样做，最终就会得分。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but if the team doesn't go 10 yards in four tries the referee Blows the Whistle the ball goes over to to the other team and they try to go 10 yards in four tries in the opposite direction

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但如果球队在四次机会中没有推进10码，裁判就会吹哨，球权转移给另一支球队，然后他们尝试向相反方向在四次机会中推进10码。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so we have two teams switching between offense and defense changing Personnel when there are stoppages

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以我们有两支队伍在进攻和防守之间切换，在比赛停顿时更换人员（Personnel）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: that has nothing to do with the real world

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这与现实世界毫无关系。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the right model as I say is what the rest of the world calls football the same 11 people mostly play the whole game nobody tells you when to be on offense or defense and there are very few stoppages in which to adjust tactics and and Personnel

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 正如我所说，正确的模型是世界其他地方所称的足球（Football）：基本上是同样的11个人踢满全场，没有人告诉你什么时候该进攻或防守，并且很少有停顿时间让你调整战术和人员。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: that's the real world in investing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那才是投资的现实世界。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: one of the key decisions is when to be on offense when to be on defense how much to allocate to each of those but nobody tells you when to do it and nobody stops the game to give you time

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 关键的决定之一是何时进攻、何时防守，以及在两者之间分配多少比例，但没有人告诉你该什么时候做这些，也没有人会暂停比赛来给你时间。

章节 11：聪明地承担风险：人寿保险的启示

📝 本节摘要：

本节通过汽车保险和人寿保险的生动比喻，阐述了什么是“聪明地承担风险”。马克斯强调，真正的风险管理不是完全规避风险，而是像保险公司那样做到四点：第一，承担已知的风险；第二，承担可以被分析的风险；第三，通过分散投资来对冲风险；第四，只承担那些能获得丰厚回报补偿（风险溢价）的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I think the best model for investing and risk management is automobile insurance

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为投资和风险管理的最佳模型是汽车保险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: we all drive we all have cars we all have insurance on our cars but I don't think of us get to the end of a year and say I wish I hadn't had Insurance because I didn't have an accident

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们都开车，我们都有车，我们的车都有保险，但我认为我们中没有人会在年底时说：“我希望我没买过保险，因为我没有发生意外。”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: we like having insurance for the safety it give us regardless of whether or not we have an accident in a particular year

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们喜欢拥有保险，因为无论我们在特定年份是否发生意外，它都能给我们带来安全感（Safety）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I think about the intelligent bearing of risk for profit

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我思考的是为了获利而聪明地承担风险（Intelligent Bearing of Risk）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: back in 1981 I was interviewed by one of the first cable networks and uh the reporter said to me how can you invest in high yield bonds when you know some of them are going to go bankrupt

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 早在1981年，我接受了一家最早的有线电视网的采访，嗯，记者对我说：“当你明知道其中有些公司会破产时，你怎么还能去投资高收益债券呢？”

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and for some reason I was able to come up with the right answer on the spot

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 出于某种原因，我能够当场给出正确的答案。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I said the most conservative companies in America are the life insurance companies how can they Ure people's lives when they know they're all going to die

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我说：“美国最保守的公司是人寿保险公司（Life Insurance Companies），既然他们知道人终有一死，他们怎么还能为人们的生命承保呢？”（注：原文Ure应为insure）

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and I think it's an interesting question but the life insurance company is number one taking a risk that it's aware of

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为这是一个有趣的问题，但是人寿保险公司，第一，承担的是它所意识到的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: they're not shocked when somebody dies that's the way it goes

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 当有人去世时，他们并不感到震惊，事情本来就是这样的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: number two they take a risk they can analyze and when I was a young man and got my first insurance policy they sent a doctor to my house to see if I was healthy

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第二，他们承担的是可以被分析的风险。当我还是个年轻人，买下我的第一份保单时，他们派了一位医生到我家里来看看我是否健康。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: number three they take a risk that can be Diversified

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第三，他们承担的是可以被分散（Diversified）的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so no life insurance companies insure just smokers or just people who live in on the San Andreas fault or just skydivers just young people or just old people

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以，没有人寿保险公司只为吸烟者承保，或者只为住在圣安德烈亚斯断层（San Andreas Fault）上的人，或者只为跳伞者、只为年轻人、或只为老年人承保。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: they have a mix a diversified portfolio

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他们有一个混合的组合，一个分散投资的投资组合（Diversified Portfolio）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and they take a risk that they're well paid to Bear

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 并且，他们承担的是能获得丰厚报酬（Well Paid to Bear）的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: they figure out the probability of what they're going to have to pay you based on Actuarial assumptions

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他们基于精算假设（Actuarial Assumptions）算出他们将不得不赔付给你的概率。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: they allow some windage for the uncertainty and then they charge you a premium

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 他们为不确定性留出一些余量（Windage），然后向你收取保费（Premium）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: we do the same we take credit risk that we're aware of we analyze it we take a risk that we can diversify we have large numbers of Holdings in every portfolio which respond to different factors and it's a risk we're well paid to Bear

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们做的事情是一样的：我们承担我们意识到的信用风险（Credit Risk），我们分析它，我们承担我们可以分散的风险，我们在每个投资组合中都有大量的持仓，这些持仓会对不同的因素做出反应，并且这是我们能获得丰厚报酬的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: we get What's called the risk premium or a yield premium to take the risk of default

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我们获得所谓的风险溢价（Risk Premium）或收益溢价（Yield Premium），以此来承担违约（Default）的风险。

章节 12：总结：卓越投资者的不对称性与风险控制

📝 本节摘要：

这是全篇演讲的总结。马克斯重申了投资的核心在于“不对称性”——在顺境中获利，在逆境中控制损失。他强调，投资绝不是要规避所有风险，因为规避风险等同于规避回报（正如不走到树枝末端就摘不到果实）。卓越的投资者之所以杰出，是因为他们对“概率分布”有更敏锐的直觉，能够在限制不确定性的同时，保持巨大的获利潜力。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so the bottom line is that I believe risk is kept under control in Superior portfolios that's one of the things that Superior investors do

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 所以底线是，我相信在卓越的投资组合中风险是受控的，这也是卓越投资者所做的事情之一。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: highly skilled investors assemble portfolio that will produce good returns if things go as expected and resist declines if they don't

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 高度熟练的投资者会构建这样的投资组合：如果事情如预期般发展，它能产生良好的回报；如果事情不如预期，它能抵御下跌。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: this asymmetry is in my opinion the critical element the Cornerstone of superior investing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 在我看来，这种不对称性（Asymmetry）是关键要素，是卓越投资的基石（Cornerstone）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: assembling a portfolio that incorporates risk control along with the potential for gains is a great accomplishment

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 构建一个既包含风险控制又具备获利潜力的投资组合是一项伟大的成就。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but it's often a hidden accomplishment because risk only turns into loss occasionally When the tide go goes out

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但它通常是一项隐蔽的成就，因为风险只有在偶尔潮水退去时才会转化为损失。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but The Prudent investor and hopefully his or her clients knows that risk is being controlled even at times when it doesn't come to the surface

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但是，谨慎的投资者及其客户（希望如此）知道，即使在风险没有浮出水面的时候，它也在被控制着。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so I think that risk is something to be managed and controlled but not avoided

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 因此我认为，风险是需要被管理和控制的，而不是去规避的。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: risk control is indispensable risk avoidance is not an appropriate goal in investing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 风险控制是不可或缺的，而规避风险在投资中并不是一个合适的目标。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: Will Rogers said you've got to go out on a limb sometimes because that's where the fruit is

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 威尔·罗杰斯（Will Rogers）说过，有时候你必须走到树枝的末端去（Go out on a limb，意为冒险），因为果实长在那里。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I think and my experience tells me from watching others that risk avoidance equates to return avoidance

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我认为，并且我观察他人的经验告诉我，规避风险就等于规避回报。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: intelligent bearing of risk should be able to enable us to make good returns with the risk under control

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 聪明地承担风险应该能够使我们在风险受控的情况下获得良好的回报。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so what's the bottom line of all that foregoing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么，上述所有内容的底线是什么呢？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you shouldn't expect to make money without bearing risk you shouldn't expect to make money just for bearing risk

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你不应该指望不承担风险就能赚钱，你也不应该指望仅仅因为承担了风险就能赚钱。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: risk is best handled on the basis of accurate subjective judgments made by experienced expert investors who emphasize risk Consciousness

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 风险最好由强调风险意识的、经验丰富的专家级投资者，基于准确的主观判断来处理。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the great challenge in investing is to limit uncertainty and still maintain substantial potential for gains

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 投资中的巨大挑战在于，在限制不确定性的同时，依然保持巨大的获利潜力。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and in conclusion I'll just say that outstanding investors are out standing for the simple reason that they have a superior sense for the probability distribution that governs future events the tickets in the bowl

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 最后，我只想说，杰出投资者之所以杰出，原因很简单：对于主导未来事件的概率分布（碗里的彩票），他们有着比常人更敏锐的直觉。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: and for whether the potential return compensates for the risks that lurk in the distribution's unattractive left-and tail

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 并且能敏锐地判断潜在的回报是否足以补偿潜伏在该分布缺乏吸引力的左侧尾部（Left-hand Tail）中的风险。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: this is what enables them to achieve the asymmetry that characterizes Superior investors participating strongly in the game GS when there are gains and avoiding many of the losses when there are losses

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这使得他们能够实现卓越投资者所具备的“不对称性”特征——在有收益时积极参与游戏（注：原文GS应为games的口误或识别错误，此处以games意译），而在有损失时避免许多亏损。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I hope the foregoing discussion will help you be among them for

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我希望上述的讨论能帮助你成为他们中的一员。