章节 1：开场白与职业建议——“20次打卡”投资观

📝 本节摘要：

本节以一段经典的“打卡器”思维实验开场，巴菲特提出如果一生只有20次投资机会，投资者将因为极度审慎而变得极其富有。随后，他以幽默的“麦克唐纳农场”笑话调侃了内布拉斯加大学的橄榄球员，迅速拉近了与现场听众的距离。在被问及毕业后的去向时，巴菲特给出了他最核心的职业建议：去为你最钦佩的人或机构工作，而不是为了完善简历而去做不喜欢的工作，并用“把性生活攒到老年”的幽默比喻，犀利地指出了追求“完美简历”的荒谬性。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you would be better off if when you got out of school here you got a punch card with 20 punches on it and every big Financial every financial decision you made you used up a punch you'd get very rich because you'd think through very hard each one

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果你从这里毕业时能拿到一张可以打卡20次的打卡器，那会对你大有裨益。你每做一个重大的财务——每一个财务决策，都会消耗掉一次打卡机会，这样你会变得非常富有，因为你会对每一个决策都进行极其严谨的深思熟虑。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: if you went to a cocktail party and somebody talked about a company he didn't even understand what they did or couldn't pronounce the name but they made some money last week and another one like it you wouldn't buy it if you only had 20 punches on that card

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果你去参加一个鸡尾酒会，有人谈论一家他甚至都不了解其主营业务、或者连名字都不会念的公司，只是因为他们上周赚了点钱，以及类似的其他公司，如果你那张卡上只有20次机会，你是绝对不会买入的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: there's a temptation to dabble if uh particularly during B markets uh uh in stocks it's so easy you know it's easier now than ever because you can do it online you know just you click it in and maybe it goes up the point and get excited about that and you buy another one the next day and so on

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 人们总是面临涉足投机的诱惑，特别是——特别是在牛市（bull markets）期间——在股市里这太容易了。你知道，现在比以往任何时候都容易，因为你可以在线交易，你懂的，只需点击一下，也许它涨了一个点，你就为此感到兴奋，然后第二天你又买了一只，以此类推。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you can't make any money over time doing that but if you had a punch card with only 20 punches you weren't going to get another one in the rest of your life you would think a long time before every in vestment decision and you would make good ones and you'd make big ones and you probably wouldn't even use all 20 punches at the in your lifetime but you wouldn't need to

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 长此以往，你用这种方式是赚不到钱的。但如果你有一张只有20次机会的打卡器，而且你余生再也得不到另一张了，那么在做每一个投资决策之前你都会思考很久，你会做出好的决策，做出重大的决策，而且你这辈子甚至可能都用不完这20次打卡机会，但你也不需要用完它。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: testing 1 million 2 million Okay I uh I came in from Nebraska today and uh you're probably all familiar with us mainly by our football team we had those fellas with the uh the big white helmets with those red ends on them

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 测试，100万，200万。好的，我——我今天从内布拉斯加州（Nebraska）过来，嗯——你们可能主要是通过我们的橄榄球队来了解我们的。我们有那些戴着白色大头盔、上面印着红色“N”字母的伙计们。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I asked one of our starters the other day what's the nend stand for and he said knowledge we we uh we make it tough on them though I mean they you don't coaster Nebraska just because you're a football player they they major an agricultural economics and there's a two question final uh for all of the players

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 前几天我问我们的一个首发球员那个“N”代表什么，他说代表“知识（Knowledge）”。我们——我们——嗯，我们对他们要求很严的。我的意思是，在内布拉斯加，你不能仅仅因为自己是个橄榄球员就混日子，他们——他们主修农业经济学，而且——所有球员都要参加一个只有两道题的期末考试。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and first question is uh what did Old McDonald have and uh they were giving that to one of our potential Heisman uh Trophy winners the other day and he started to sweat finally he brightened up he said Farm Professor delighted of course you don't want to flun a Heisman candidate uh so he said now h e said you're halfway home

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 第一道题是——“老麦克唐纳（Old McDonald）有什么？”前几天他们把这道题出给了我们一个可能获得海斯曼奖（Heisman Trophy）的候选人，他开始直冒汗。最后他眼睛一亮，说：“农场（Farm）！”教授很高兴，当然了，你总不想让一个海斯曼奖候选人挂科吧——所以他说，现在——他说，“你已经答对一半了。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: he said just one more question how do you spell Farm now the guy really starts to sweat he looks at the ceiling and he looks around find his face bright he says e e IO so watch for that guy this year he'll be Dynamite uh I really want to talk about what's on your mind so we're going to do a qaa in a minute

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 他说：“最后还有一个问题，‘农场（Farm）’怎么拼写？”现在这家伙真的开始狂流汗了，他看着天花板，四处张望，最后容光焕发，他说：“E-I-E-I-O！”所以今年留心看那个家伙的表现吧，他会一鸣惊人的。嗯——我真的很想聊聊你们心里的想法，所以我们等会儿会做一个问答（Q&A）。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I uh there are a couple questions I always get asked you know I always uh people always say well who should I go to work for when I get out and I've got a very simple answer we we may elaborate more on this as we go along but uh you know the the real thing to do is to get going and for some institution or individual that you admire

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我——有几个问题我总是被问到，你知道，我总是——人们总是说，“我毕业后应该去为谁工作？”我有一个非常简单的答案，在接下来的时间里我们可能会对此做更多展开，但是——你知道——真正要做的，是立即行动起来，去为你钦佩的某个机构或个人工作。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean it's crazy to take in between jobs just because they look good on your resume or because you get a little higher starting pay I I was up at Harvard while back and very nice young guy picked me up at the airport uh Harbor business school attendee and he said look he said I went to undergrad here and then I worked for X and Y and Z and now I've come here

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的意思是，仅仅因为某些过渡性的工作在简历上看起来不错，或者因为你能拿到稍微高一点的起薪就去接受它们，这简直是疯了。我——不久前我去了哈佛（Harvard），一个非常棒的年轻人来机场接我，嗯——他是哈佛商学院的学生，他说：“你看，”他说，“我在这里读了本科，然后我在X、Y和Z公司工作过，现在我又来到了这里。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and he said I I thought it would really round up my resume perfectly if I went to work now for a big management consulting firm and I said well is that what you want to do and he said no but he said that's the perfect resume and I said well when are you going to start doing what you like and he said well I'll get to that someday

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 他说：“我——我觉得如果我现在去一家大型管理咨询公司工作，这能让我的简历变得极其完美。”我问：“那么，这是你想做的事吗？”他说：“不是，但这能打造一份完美的简历。”我说：“那你要什么时候才开始做你喜欢的事情呢？”他说：“嗯，总有一天我会去做的。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and I I said well you I said your plan sounds to me a lot like saving up sex for your old age you know it just doesn't make a lot of sense and I told that same group I said you know go to work for whomever you admire the most and I said you can't get a bad result you'll jump out of bed in the morning and you'll be having fun

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 然后我——我说：“好吧，你——”我说：“你的计划听起来很像是把性生活攒到老年再过。你知道，这实在是说不通。”我也对同一群人说，我说：“你知道，去为你最钦佩的人工作。”我说：“你绝不会得到一个糟糕的结果，你每天早上都会从床上弹起来，你会很享受其中的乐趣。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and Dean called me up a couple weeks later said what' you tell those kids he said they're all becoming self-employed so you've got to you've got to temper that advice a little bit uh uh

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 结果几周后院长给我打电话，说：“你对那些孩子们说了什么？”他说，“他们现在全都要去当个体户了！”所以你们得——你们得稍微变通一下这个建议。嗯——嗯。

章节 2：评估同学的未来——论品格与习惯的力量

📝 本节摘要：

本节中，巴菲特提出了一个著名的思想实验：如果让你买入某个同学未来10%的收益，或者做空某个同学10%的收益，你会如何选择？他指出，决定胜出的往往不是智商、成绩或家庭背景，而是慷慨、诚实等后天培养的品质；反之，导致失败的则是自私、贪小便宜等负面习惯。他借用本杰明·富兰克林和本杰明·格雷厄姆的经历，强调“习惯的枷锁”在年轻时轻若无物，到老时却重得无法挣脱。只要趁年轻养成好习惯，每个人都能成为那个“自己愿意买入10%”的人。（注：文末包含一段原视频发布频道的口播广告，为保证原文完整性已如实保留并翻译）

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: Play One game a little bit with me for just a minute and then we'll uh then we'll get to your questions um uh I'd like for th e moment to have you uh well have you pretend I've made you a great offer

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 跟我玩一分钟的小游戏，然后我们——然后我们就进入你们的提问环节，嗯，我想让此刻的你——嗯，让你假设我给你提供了一个绝佳的报价。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and I've told you that you could pick any one of your classmates and you now know each other probably pretty well after being here for a while you can pick you'd have 24 hours to think it over and you can pick any one of your classmates and you get 10% of their earnings for the rest of their life Liv and I ask you what goes through your mind in determining which one of those you would pick

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我告诉你，你可以挑选你的任何一位同学，你们在这里待了一段时间后现在可能已经相当了解彼此了。你可以挑一个，你有24小时的时间来考虑，你可以挑选你的任何一位同学，然后你将在他们的余生中获得他们收入的10%，我问你，在决定挑选哪一位时，你脑子里在想些什么？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you can't pick the one with the richest father that doesn't count I mean you got to got to do this on Merit but you probably wouldn't pick the person that gets the highest grades in the class I mean that nothing wrong with getting the highest grades in the class but that that's not that isn't going to be the quality that that that sets apart uh a big winner uh from the rest of the pack

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 你不能选那个父亲最有钱的，那不算数。我的意思是，你必须根据真才实学（Merit）来做决定。但你可能也不会选班上成绩最高的那个人，我的意思是，拿最高分并没有错，但这——这不是——这不会是那个将一个大赢家从芸芸众生中区分开来的特质。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: think about who you would pick and why and I think you'll find when you get through you'll pick some individual you've all got the ability you w ouldn't be here otherwise and you've all got the energy I mean you've got you know the initiative is here the intelligence is here uh throughout the class

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 想想你会选谁以及为什么选他，我想你会发现，当你理清思绪后，你会选出某个特定的个体。你们都有这个能力，否则你不会在这里，你们都有精力，我的意思是你们有——你知道，主观能动性都在这里，智力也都在这里，贯穿整个班级。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but some of you are going to be bigger winners than others and uh it gets down to a bunch of qualities that uh interestingly enough are are are self-made I mean it's not how tall you are it's not whether you can kick a football 60 yards it's not whether you can run the 100 yard dash in 10 seconds it's not whether you're the best looking person in the room

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但你们中的一些人会成为比其他人更大的赢家。而这归结于一系列特质，而且——非常有趣的是，这些特质都是后天自我养成的（self-made）。我的意思是，这与你有多高无关，与你能不能把橄榄球踢出60码远无关，与你百米冲刺能不能跑进10秒无关，也与你是不是房间里最好看的人无关。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: it's a whole bunch of qualities that really come out of Ben Franklin or the Boy Scout Cod or or whatever it may be I mean it's it's it's Integrity it's honesty it's it's generosity it's it's being willing to do more than your share it's it's uh just all those qualities that are self- selected

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而是很大一堆真正源自本杰明·富兰克林（Ben Franklin）或者《童子军守则》（Boy Scout Code）的特质，或者不管是源自哪里。我的意思是，那是——那是诚信（Integrity），是诚实，是——是慷慨，是——是愿意付出比你分内更多的东西，是——是所有那些你可以自我选择的特质。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and then if you look on the other side of the Ledger because there's always a catch to these you know free gifts and Genie jokes so you also have to and this is the fun part you also have to se ll short one of the your classmates and pay 10% of what they do

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 然后，如果你看看账本的另一面——因为这种免费礼物和阿拉丁神灯的笑话总是带有附加条件的——所以你还必须（这是好玩的部分），你还必须做空（sell short）你的一位同学，并且支付他们未来收益的10%。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so who do you think is going to do the worst in the class this is way more fun and and think about it again and again it isn't the it isn't the person with the lowest grades or anything anything of the sort it's the person who just doesn't shape up in the Department

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 那么你觉得谁会是班上混得最惨的？这就好玩多了。然后再想一想，再想一想，他不会是——不会是成绩最低或者类似情况的人，而是那个在某些特质层面根本不达标（doesn't shape up）的人。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean we look for three things when we hire people we look for intelligence we look for for initiative or energy and we look for integrity and if they don't have the ladder the first two will kill you because if you're going to get somebody without Integrity you want them lazy and dumb I mean you don't want to you don't want to smart and energetic

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的意思是，我们在招人时看重三点：我们寻找智力，我们寻找主观能动性或精力，我们寻找诚信（Integrity）。如果他们没有后者（诚信），前两点就会要了你的命。因为如果你要找一个没有诚信的人，你会希望他们又懒又笨。我的意思是，你肯定不希望——你肯定不希望他们又聪明又精力充沛。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so uh it's that third quality but everything about that quality is your choice you know you you can't change the way you were wired much but you can change a lot of what you do with that wiring and it's the habits that you generate now on those qualities or those negative qualities

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以，嗯——就是这第三种特质。但关于这种特质的一切都是你的选择。你知道，你——你很难改变你天生的“出厂配置”（wired），但你能极大改变你如何运用这些配置。而决定因素就是你现在围绕这些正面或负面特质所养成的习惯。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean the person the person who al ways you know claims credit for things they didn't do that always cuts Corners that you can't count on I mean in the end those those are habit patterns and the time to form the right habits is when you're when you're your age

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的意思是那些人——那些总是，你知道的，把不是自己做的功劳据为己有的人，那些总是偷工减料走捷径（cuts corners）的人，那些你靠不住的人。我的意思是，归根结底，这些——这些都是习惯模式，而养成正确习惯的最佳时机就是当你——当你在你们这个年纪的时候。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean it uh uh it doesn't do me much good to get golf lessons now if I'd gotten golf lessons when I was your age I might be a decent golfer but but it someone once said the chains of habit are too are too light to be felt until they're too heavy to be broken

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的意思是，它——嗯，我现在去上高尔夫课对我没有多大好处。如果我在你们这个年纪上过高尔夫课，我可能会成为一个还不错的高尔夫球手。但是——但是有人曾说过，“习惯的枷锁在轻得感觉不到时，往往已经重得无法挣脱（the chains of habit are too light to be felt until they're too heavy to be broken）”。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and I see that all the time I see people with habit patterns that are self-destructive uh when they're 50 or 60 and they they really can't change them they're imprisoned by that but you're not imprisoned by anything

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我一直都能看到这种情况。我看到人们在50岁或60岁时有着自我毁灭的习惯模式，嗯——他们真的无法改变这些习惯，他们被习惯囚禁了。但是你们并没有被任何东西囚禁。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so when you write down the qualities of that person that you'd like to buy 10% of look at that list and ask yourself is there anything on that list I couldn't do the there aren't there won't be and when you look at the person you sell short and you look at those qualities that you don't like if yo u see any of those in yourself egotism whatever it may be selfishness you can get rid of that I mean that is not ordained

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以，当你写下那个你愿意买入其10%的人的特质时，看看那张清单，然后问问自己：清单上有什么是我做不到的吗？没有，不会有的。当你看着那个你做空的人，看着那些你不喜欢的特质，如果你——如果你在自己身上看到了其中任何一点，自负，或是其他什么，自私，你是可以改掉它的。我的意思是，那不是命中注定的（ordained）。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and uh if you follow that and and Ben Franklin did this and my old boss Ben Graham did this at early ages in their young teens they just Ben Graham looked around and he said who do I admire you know and he wanted to be admired himself

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而且，嗯——如果你遵循这一点——本杰明·富兰克林就是这么做的，我的老上司本·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）也是在他们十几岁的早年就这样做的。他们只是——本·格雷厄姆环顾四周，他说：“我钦佩谁？”你知道，而且他自己也想受到钦佩。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and he said you know why do I admire these other people and he said if I admire them for these reasons maybe other people will admire me if I behave in a similar Manner and he and he decided what kind of a person he wanted to be

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 他说：“你知道我为什么钦佩这些其他人吗？”他说：“如果我是因为这些原因钦佩他们，那么如果我也表现出类似的行为举止，也许其他人也会钦佩我。”于是他——于是他决定了自己想成为什么样的人。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and if you follow that at the end you'll be the person you want to buy 10% of I mean that's the goal in the end and it's it's something that's achievable by by everybody in this room so that's the end of the sermon now let's let's talk about what's on your mind

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果你照做，最终你就会成为那个你自己愿意买入10%的人。我的意思是，这才是最终的目标。而且这是——这是在这个房间里的每一个人都能做到的。所以，说教到此结束，现在让我们——让我们聊聊你们心里的想法。

[原文] [Channel Host]: and hey guys if you're enjoying this warm Buffett video then I have a special treat for you you as a thank you for supporting this channel I have put to gether an exclusive investing checklist that summarizes the investment strategy of legendary investor waren Buffett

[译文] [频道插播]: 嘿各位，如果您喜欢这期沃伦·巴菲特的视频，那么我为您准备了一份特别的礼物。作为对支持本频道的感谢，我整理了一份独家的投资清单，总结了传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特的投资策略。

[原文] [Channel Host]: you can get it for completely free at the link in the description and ping comment of this video I've spent hundreds of hours combing through Buffett's interviews and writings to put this checklist together for you guys

[译文] [频道插播]: 您可以通过本视频描述栏和置顶评论中的链接完全免费地获取它。我花了数百小时梳理巴菲特的采访和著作，才为各位整理出这份清单。

[原文] [Channel Host]: if you want to continue learning how to make money in the stock market like warm Buffett make sure to get your free copy because it summarizes Buffett's investment strategy in a clear easy to understand way again thanks for supporting the channel it means the world to me and this is my small way of repaying you now let's get back to the video

[译文] [频道插播]: 如果你想继续学习如何像沃伦·巴菲特那样在股市中赚钱，请务必获取你的免费副本，因为它以一种清晰易懂的方式总结了巴菲特的投资策略。再次感谢支持本频道，这对我是莫大的意义，这也是我回报你们的小小方式。现在让我们回到视频中。

章节 3：定义“能力圈”——理解业务的经济特征

📝 本节摘要：

巴菲特正式开启问答环节。他阐述了自己投资体系中最核心的概念之一：只在“能力圈（Circle of Competence）”内进行投资。他指出，真正的“理解”一项业务，并非仅仅明白它的产品是什么，而是要能清晰预见该业务在未来10到20年的经济特征。他通过对比经久不衰的箭牌口香糖、可口可乐，与那些曾经彻底改变人类生活却让无数投资者血本无归的朝阳产业（如20世纪初的汽车制造、航空业以及电视机行业），深刻揭示了一个真理：预测一个行业的宏伟前景绝不等于找到了一门好生意。基于此，他坦言对于互联网和科技公司，因为无法预判最终的赢家，所以绝不轻易涉足。最后，他引用IBM创始人老汤姆·沃森的话总结：不求无所不知，但求安分守己，待在自己了解的边界之内才是成功的关键。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you can ask anything the only thing I won't tell you is what we're buying or selling or about you know I I don't even tell myself that I mean I I write it down and then it's like the Coca-Cola formula you know there's only two people can get into the trust department and find out what they are and I don't know who the two are so it's uh we don't talk about what we're buying you're selling but anything else is fair game personal business anything i''d like to talk about and actually the tougher the questions are the more interesting it is for me so don't don't spare my feelings I mean just throw at my head and uh and with that let's uh I guess we've got a microphone is this the only microphone or is there one on this the only microphone right here ask a question you'll need to come down to this microphone just stand in line and and I'll be read just fil and then you can yes

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 你们可以问任何问题，唯一我不会告诉你们的是我们在买什么或卖什么，或者关于——你知道，我甚至连自己都不告诉。我的意思是，我把它写下来，然后就像可口可乐的配方一样，你知道的，只有两个人能进入信托部门发现它们是什么，而我都不知道那两个人是谁。所以，嗯，我们不谈论我们在买什么卖什么，但除此之外的任何事情都是允许的（fair game），个人生意，任何想聊的。事实上，问题越刁钻，对我来说就越有趣。所以不要——不要顾及我的面子。我的意思是，尽管朝我砸过来。嗯，那么我们——我猜我们有一个麦克风，这是唯一的麦克风吗，还是这上面有一个？唯一的麦克风就在这里。要提问的话你需要下来到这个麦克风这里，排好队，然后我会——（听不清，意为准备好回答），然后你可以——是的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I have an oldfashioned belief that I can only should expect to make money in things that I understand and when I say understand I don't mean understand you know what the product does or anything like that I mean understand what the economics of the business are likely to look at look like 10 years from now or 20 years from now

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我有一个老派的信念，那就是我只能、也只应期望在自己理解的事物上赚钱。而且当我说“理解”时，我并不是指理解，你知道的，这个产品是做什么的或者类似的东西，我是指理解这项业务的经济特征（economics）在10年后或20年后可能会是什么样子。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I know in general what the economics will say wrigly chewing gum will look like 10 years from now the Internet isn't going to change the way people chew gum it isn't going to change which gum they chew you know if you own the chewing gum Market in a big way and you've got double Min and spearmint and Juicy Fruit those Brands will be there 10 years from now so I can't pinpoint exactly what the numbers are going to look like on regly but I'm not going to be way off if I try to look forward on something like that that evaluating that company is within what I call my circle of competence

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我大体上知道箭牌口香糖（Wrigley chewing gum）10年后的经济特征会是什么样。互联网不会改变人们嚼口香糖的方式，也不会改变他们嚼什么口香糖。你知道，如果你在很大程度上拥有了口香糖市场，并且拥有了“绿箭（Doublemint）”、“白箭（Spearmint）”和“黄箭（Juicy Fruit）”，这些品牌10年后依然会在那里。所以我无法精确指出箭牌未来的财报数字到底会是多少，但如果我试图展望这类事物，我也不会偏离太远。评估那家公司属于我所说的“能力圈（circle of competence）”之内。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I understand what they do I understand the economics of it I understand the competitive aspects of the business there can be all kinds of companies that have wonderful Futures but I don't know which ones they are uh I given talks in the past where I carry with me a a 70 page tightly printed list and it shows 2,000 auto companies

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我了解他们做什么，我了解它的经济特征，我了解这项业务的竞争层面。可能会有各种各样的公司拥有美好的未来，但我不知道它们是哪些。嗯，我过去演讲时曾随身带着一份70页密密麻麻打印出来的名单，上面列着2000家汽车公司。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: now if at the start of the 20th century you had seen what the auto was going to do to this country the impact it would have on the lives of you then you're children and grandchildren and so on that what it just it transformed the American landscape but of those 2,000 companies you know three basically survive and they haven't done that well uh at many times so how do you pick three winners out of 2000 I mean it's not so easy to do it's easy when you look back but it's not so easy looking forward

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果在20世纪初，你看到了汽车将对这个国家产生什么影响，它将对你、对你的子孙后代等人的生活产生什么影响，它——它简直改变了美国的版图。但在那2000家公司中，你知道，基本上只有三家存活了下来，而且在很多时候它们的表现也并没有那么好。那么，你如何从2000家中挑出那3个赢家呢？我的意思是，这可没那么容易做到。回过头看很容易，但向前看就没那么容易了。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so you could have been dead right on on the fact that the Auto industry in fact you probably couldn't have predicted how big impact it would have but you wouldn't have if if You' bought companies across the board you wouldn't have made any money because the economic characteristics of that business were not easy to I said I I've always said the easier thing to do is figure out who loses and what you really should have done in 19 05 or so when you saw what was going to happen with the auto is you should have gone short horses

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以你可能对汽车行业的发展方向完全判断正确（dead right），事实上，你可能无法预测它会产生多大的影响。但如果你全面买入所有公司（bought companies across the board），你是赚不到任何钱的，因为那个行业的经济特征并不容易把握。我曾说过——我总是说，更容易做的事情是找出谁是输家。在1905年左右，当你看到汽车会带来什么影响时，你真正应该做的，是去做空（go short）马匹。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: there were 20 million horses in 1900 and there's about 4 million horses now so it's easy to figure out the losers you know the loser is the horse but the winner was the auto overall but 2,000 companies just about failed a few merged out and so on

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 1900年有2000万匹马，而现在大约有400万匹马。所以很容易找出输家，你知道的，输家就是马。但总体上的赢家是汽车。但是有将近2000家公司倒闭了，少数几家被合并了等等。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: uh there were three companies auto companies in the dowo Industrials in the 1920s and 30s stud Baker Nash Kelvinator and Hudson Motor now those names are all familiar to me and maybe some of them are familiar to you but they're not making any cars you know they didn't make money and yet at one time they were in the Dow 30 they were were the aristocrats of American Business and they got creamed

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，在20世纪20年代和30年代，道琼斯工业指数（Dow Industrials）里有三家汽车公司（注：此处口误列举了四家）：斯图贝克（Studebaker）、纳什（Nash）、开尔文纳特（Kelvinator）和哈德逊汽车（Hudson Motor）。现在，这些名字对我来说都很熟悉，也许你们中有些人也熟悉，但他们已经不造车了。你知道，他们没有赚到钱，然而他们曾经是道琼斯30指数（Dow 30）的成分股，他们曾是美国商业的贵族，但他们被击垮了（got creamed）。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so figuring out the economic characteristics of a the winners in a wonderful business is not easy in North Carolina you know Orville and Wilbur took off or I guess Orville took off and Wilbur watched I'd have been Wilbur uh but if you could have seen the future of the airline business from that point forward and how that would transform things you know it would it would have blown you away and it's excited people Co incidentally ever since

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以弄清楚一项伟大业务中赢家的经济特征是不容易的。在北卡罗来纳州，你们知道奥维尔（Orville）和威尔伯（Wilbur）起飞了，或者我猜是奥维尔起飞了，而威尔伯在旁边看着。换作是我，我会选择做威尔伯——但如果你能从那时起看到航空业的未来，以及它将如何改变世界，你知道，它会——它会让你大吃一惊。而且碰巧从那以后它一直让人们感到兴奋。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but if there had been a capitalist at Kitty Hawk he should have shot Orval down I mean it because it's done nothing but cost investors money there were over 400 airplane companies in the 1920s and 30s alone there was an Omaha there was in Nebraska we were the Silicon Valley of apparently of aircraft and they all disappeared been a terrible business

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但如果当时在基蒂霍克（Kitty Hawk）有一位资本家，他应该把奥维尔（注：原文机器字幕误作Orval，下文误作oral）击落。我是认真的，因为它除了耗费投资者的钱之外，什么也没做。仅在20世纪20年代和30年代就有超过400家飞机公司。奥马哈（Omaha）就有一家，在内布拉斯加（Nebraska），我们显然曾经是航空器的“硅谷”，然后它们全都消失了。这一直是一门糟糕的生意。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: at the end of 1991 if You' added up the aggregate earnings from all airline companies with billion poured in since Wilbur and oral were down there they came to less than zero the number of passengers went up every year the importance of the industry was dramatically increased decade by decade and nobody made any money it uh so figuring out the economic consequences

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 到1991年底，如果你把所有航空公司自威尔伯和奥维尔在那儿起飞以来投入的数十亿美元的总收益加起来，结果是小于零的。乘客数量每年都在上升，该行业的重要性每十年都在急剧增加，却没有任何人赚到钱。嗯——所以去弄清经济后果尤为重要。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: TV I think there's I don't know 20 25 million sets a year sold in the United States I don't think there's one of them made in the United States anymore I mean you'd say TV set manufacturer what a wonderful business I mean everybody now nobody had a TV in 1950 there abouts 45 to 50 everybody has multiple sets now but nobody is in the United States has made any real money making the sets they're all out of business you know the Magna boxes the rcas all of those companies

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 电视，我想在美国每年售出——我不知道——2000万到2500万台电视机。我不认为现在还有哪一台是在美国制造的了。我的意思是，你会说电视机制造商，多么棒的一门生意啊！我的意思是，每个人——1950年左右没人有电视，45到50年的时候，现在每个人都有好几台。但美国没有一个人靠制造电视机赚到了什么真金白银，他们全破产了。你知道的，那些美格（Magnavox）、RCA，所有这些公司。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: radio was the equivalent of the 20 over 500 companies making radios in the 1920s again I don't think there's a a US radio manufacturer at the present time

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 收音机相当于20年代的电视机，在20世纪20年代有超过500家公司制造收音机。同样，我认为目前没有一家美国的收音机制造商了。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but Coca-Cola you know what was it 188 for Jacob's Pharmacy or whatever fellow comes up with something a lot of Co copers over the years but now you've got a company that is selling roughly 1.1 billion 8 ounce servings of its product not all C bright and some others daily throughout the world 117 years later so understanding the economic characteristics of a business is different than predicting the fact that an industry is going to do wonderfully

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但是可口可乐，你知道当时是怎样？188几年为雅各布药房（Jacob's Pharmacy）还是什么的，不管那个家伙发明了什么，这些年来有很多模仿者（注：原文机器字幕误作Co copers），但现在你拥有了一家公司，每天在全世界销售大约11亿份8盎司规格的产品，不全是可口可乐，也有雪碧（注：原文机器字幕误作C bright）和其他一些。117年后依然如此。因此，理解一项业务的经济特征与预测一个行业将会发展得很好，是截然不同的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so when I look at the internet businesses or I look at Tech businesses I say this is a marvelous thing and I love to play around on the computer and it now I order my books from Amazon and all kinds of things but I don't know who's going to win and unless I know who's going to win I'm not interested in investing I'll just play around on the computer and uh uh

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以当我关注互联网业务或者科技业务时，我说这是一件了不起的事情，我也喜欢在电脑上玩，现在我从亚马逊（Amazon）订购书籍以及各种各样的东西。但我不知道谁会赢，除非我知道谁会赢，否则我对投资不感兴趣。我只会在电脑上玩玩。嗯——嗯——

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: defining your circle of competence is the most important aspect of investing it's not how important how how large your circle is you don't have to be an expert on everything but knowing where the perimeter of that Circle of what you know and what you don't know is and staying inside of it is all important Tom Watson senior who started IBM said in his book he said I'm no genius said but I'm smart in spots and I stay around those spots and you know that is the key uh

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 界定你的能力圈（circle of competence）是投资中最重要的一环。重要的不是你的能力圈有多大，你不必成为每个领域的专家，但认清你所知与不知的那条边界线，并待在圈子里面，这才是重中之重。创立IBM的老汤姆·沃森（Tom Watson senior）在他的书中说过，他说：“我不是什么天才，”他说，“但我能在某些点上保持聪明，而且我就待在那些点周围。”你知道，那就是关键。嗯——

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so if I understand a few things and I stick in that Arena I'll do okay and if I don't understand something but I get all excited about because my neighbors are talking about the stocks are going up and everything they start fooling around someplace else eventually I'll get creamed and I should so now let's go over here

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以如果我理解几件事情，并且我坚持留在那个领域里，我会做得不错。如果我不理解某个东西，但我变得非常兴奋，因为我的邻居们都在谈论那些股票在上涨等等，然后他们开始在其他地方胡闹，最终我会惨败（get creamed），而且我也活该如此。所以，现在让我们转向这边。

章节 4：内在价值公式——伊索寓言与投资的本质

📝 本节摘要：

本节中，面对学生关于如何计算“内在价值”的提问，巴菲特给出了经典的定义：内在价值是一家企业从现在到世界末日所能产生的全部现金流的折现值。他指出，投资的唯一目的是现在付出金钱，以期未来获得更多的金钱。相较于收益明确印在纸面上的债券，股票的评估需要分析师将企业的未来收益转化为类似债券的现金流预测。巴菲特借用公元前600年伊索寓言中“一鸟在手胜过双鸟在林”的智慧，将投资核心简化为三个终极问题：林子里有多少只鸟？什么时候能抓出来？你有多大把握？。他强调，评估企业不需要看图表走势或听分析师推荐，关键在于基于利率计算未来现金的折现。如果看不清“林子里的鸟”，就坚决不投，这也再次解释了他避开互联网公司的原因。

[原文] [Student]: hello Mr Buffett I got two short questions one is how do you find intrinsic value in a company

[译文] [学生]: 您好，巴菲特先生。我有两个简短的问题，第一个是：您如何发现一家公司的内在价值（intrinsic value）？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well intrinsic value is what is the number that if you were all knowing about the future and could predict all the cash that a b a business would give you between now and Judgment Day discounted at the proper discount rate that number is what the intrinsic value of a business is

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，内在价值指的是这样一个数字：如果你对未来无所不知，并且能够预测一家企业从现在到世界末日（Judgment Day）之间能给你的所有现金，并以适当的贴现率进行折现，那个数字就是一家企业的内在价值。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: in other words the only reason for making investment and laying out money now is to get more money later on right that's that's what investing is all about

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 换句话说，现在进行投资和拿出钱的唯一原因，就是为了以后能得到更多的钱，对吧？这——这就是投资的全部意义。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: now when you look at a stock when you look at a bond so means United States Government Bond it's very easy to tell them what you're going to get back it says it right on the bond it says when you get the interest payments it says when you get the principle so it's very easy to figure out the value of a bond it can change tomorrow if interest rates change but you are the cash flows are printed on the bond

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 那么，当你审视一只股票时，当你审视一张债券——比方说是美国政府债券——很容易判断你将会拿回什么。债券上写得明明白白，它写了你什么时候获得利息支付，它写了你什么时候拿回本金。所以计算一张债券的价值是非常容易的。如果利率改变，它的价值明天可能会改变，但是你——那些现金流是印在债券上的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: the cash flows aren't printed on a stock certificate that's the job of the analyst is to print out change that stock certificate which represents an interest in the business and change that into a bond and say this is what I think it's going to pay out in the future

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而现金流并没有印在股票凭证上。那是分析师的工作，就是把代表着在这家企业中拥有权益的股票凭证打印出来、将其转换成债券，并说：“这就是我认为它未来将会支付的金额。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: when we buy you know some new machine for Shaw to make carpet that's what we're thinking about obviously and you you all learn that in business school but it's the same thing for a big business

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 你们知道，当我们为肖氏工业（Shaw）购买一些制造地毯的新机器时，显然我们考虑的就是这个。而且你们——你们在商学院都学过这些，但对于一家大企业来说，道理是一模一样的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: it it if you buy Coca-Cola today the company is selling for about10 to 15 billion do in the market the question is if you had 110 or 15 billion you wouldn't be listening to me but uh I'd be listening to you incidentally uh but the question is would you lay it out today to get what the Coca-Cola company is going to deliver to you over the next two or 3 hundred years

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 它——它——如果你今天买入可口可乐，这家公司在市场上的售价大约是1100到1150亿美元。问题是，如果你有1100或1150亿美元，你现在就不会在这里听我讲话了，而是——顺便说一句，我会听你讲话。嗯——但问题是，你今天愿意拿出这笔钱，来换取可口可乐公司在未来两三百年内将交付给你的东西吗？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: discount rate doesn't make much difference after as you get further out but and that is a question how much cash they're going to give you

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 随着时间的推移越往后，贴现率的差别就不大了，但是——这就成了一个问题：他们到底会给你多少现金？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: it isn't a question of you know isn't a question of how many analysts are going to recommend it or what the volume in the stock is or what the chart looks like or anything it's a question of how much cash it's going to give you that's the only reason the true

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 这不是一个关于——你知道的——这不是关于有多少分析师会推荐它，或者股票的成交量是多少，或者图表走势看起来如何或任何其他事情的问题。这是一个它能给你多少现金的问题，这是唯一真实的依据。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: if you're buying a farm it's true if you're buying an apartment house any financial asset oil in the ground you're laying out cash now to get more cash back later on and the question is is how much you going to get when are you going to get it and how sure are you

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果你买一个农场，这是适用的；如果你买一栋公寓楼，或者任何金融资产，甚至是地下的石油。你现在拿出现金就是为了以后拿回更多的现金。而问题就在于：你能拿到多少？你什么时候能拿到？你有多少把握？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and when I calcul calculate intrinsic value of a business when we buy businesses and whether we're buying all of a business or a little piece of a business I always think we're buying the whole business because that's my approach to it

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而当我计算——计算一家企业的内在价值时，当我们收购企业时，无论我们是买下整个企业还是企业的一小部分，我总是认为我们在买下整个企业，因为那就是我的方法。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I look at it and say what what will come out of this business and when and what you really like of course is them to be able to use the money they earn and earn higher Returns on it as you go along I mean Berkshire has never distributed anything to its shareholders but its ability to distribute goes up as the value of the businesses we own increases we can compound it internally

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我审视它并问自己：“这家企业能产出什么？什么时候产出？”当然，你真正喜欢的是，随着时间的推移，他们能够利用赚来的钱去赚取更高的回报。我的意思是，伯克希尔（Berkshire）从来没有向股东分配过任何利润，但它分配利润的能力随着我们拥有的企业价值的增加而提升，我们可以在内部进行复利增长。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but the real question is Berkshire selling for we'll say 105 or so billion now uh what can we distribute from that 100 if you're going to buy the whole company for 105 billion now can we distribute enough cash to you soon enough to make it sensible at present interest rates to lay out that cash now and that's that's what it gets down to

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但真正的问题是，伯克希尔现在的售价——我们假设是1050亿美元左右——嗯，如果现在你要花1050亿美元买下整个公司，我们能从中分配出多少？我们是否能足够快地分配出足够的现金，使得在当前的利率水平下，你现在拿出这笔现金是明智的？这就是——这就是归根结底的本质。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and if the if you can't answer that question you can't buy the stock you know you can you can gamble in the stock if you want to or your neighbors can buy it but if you don't answer that question and I I can't answer that for for internet companies for example there a lot of companies that all kinds of companies I can't answer it for but I just stay away from those

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果——如果你无法回答那个问题，你就不能买那只股票。你知道，如果你想的话，你可以拿那只股票赌一把，或者你的邻居可以买。但如果你无法回答那个问题——而我——我无法回答那些互联网公司的问题，举个例子。有很多公司，各种各样的公司我都无法回答这个问题，但我就是避开它们。

[原文] [Student]: number two so you got formulas involved in finding intrinsic values on certain companies I you've got a mathematical system set up just kind of present value of future cash yeah second short question is why haven't you um written down your set of formulas or your strategies in written form so you can share with everyone else

[译文] [学生]: 第二个问题。所以您在发现某些公司的内在价值时涉及到了公式，我——您建立了一个数学系统，就像未来现金流的现值（present value）那样。是的，第二个简短的问题是，为什么您没有，嗯，将您的这套公式或策略以书面形式写下来，以便与其他人分享呢？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well I think I actually have written about that if you read the annual reports over the recent years in fact the most recent annual report I I I use what I've just been talking about

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，我想我实际上已经写过这方面的内容了。如果你读过近几年的年度报告，事实上，在最近的年度报告中，我——我——我用的就是我刚才所讲的内容。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I use the illustration of ESOP because here ESOP was in 600 BC smart man wasn't smart enough to know was 600 BC though I mean would take a little foresight uh but ESOP you know in between tortoises and hairs and all these other things he found time to about you know birds

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我用了伊索（Aesop）的例子，因为早在公元前600年的伊索，是个聪明人。虽然他没聪明到知道自己身处公元前600年，我的意思是这需要一点先知先觉。嗯，但是伊索，你知道的，在龟兔赛跑和所有这些其他事情之间，他找出了时间去写——你知道的——关于鸟的事情。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and he said a bird in the hand is worth to in the bush now that isn't quite Complete because the question is how sure are you that there are two in the bush and how long do you have to wait to get them out

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 他说：“一鸟在手，胜过双鸟在林（a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush）。”但这还不算完全完整，因为问题在于：你有多大把握林子里有两只鸟？你还要等多久才能把它们抓出来？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: now he probably knew that but he just didn't have time because he had all these other Proverbs to write uh and had to get on with it so but he was halfway there in 600 BC

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，他可能知道这些，只是没有时间写出来，因为他还有其他这些谚语要写，嗯——而且还得赶工。所以，但在公元前600年，他已经参透一半了。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: that's all there is to investing is how many birds are in the bush when are you going to get them out and how sure are you

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 投资的全部奥秘就在于此：林子里到底有几只鸟？你什么时候能把它们抓出来？你有多大把握？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: now if interest rates are 15% roughly you've got to get two birds out of the bush in five years to equal the bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get two birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting against an interest an interest rate

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 那么，如果利率大约是15%，你必须在五年内从林子里抓出两只鸟，才能抵得上现在手中的这一只鸟。但如果利率是3%，即使你要花20年才能抓出两只鸟，放弃手里的这只鸟依然是划算的，因为这一切都回到了用利率进行贴现（discounting）的问题上。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: problem is often you don't know you know not only how many birds are in the bush but in the case of the internet companies there weren't any birds in the bush but but they still take the bird that you give them in the hand

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 问题往往在于你并不知道——你知道，不仅不知道林子里有多少只鸟，而且在互联网公司的例子中，林子里根本就没有任何鸟！但是——但是他们仍然会拿走你递到他们手上的那只鸟。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but it's but I I I actually have written about this sort of thing and uh stealing heavily from ESOP who wrote it some 2600 years ago but I've been behind on my reading yeah

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但是它——但是我——我——我实际上已经写过这类东西了，而且，嗯——大量剽窃了大约2600年前伊索写的内容，只是我在阅读上落后了些。是的。

章节 5：投资生涯的惨痛教训——“雪茄烟蒂”与错失良机

📝 本节摘要：

在回答学生关于“难忘的错误与失败”时，巴菲特坦诚地分享了他投资生涯中的惨痛教训。他直言买下伯克希尔本身就是一个错误，因为当时的纺织业务极其糟糕，而他当时受到“捡雪茄烟蒂”策略的影响，仅仅因为便宜就买入了它。他强调时间是好企业的朋友，却是烂企业的敌人，宁可以合理的价格买入好企业，也不要以极低的价格买入烂企业。此外，他还幽默地讲述了投资全美航空和早年投资加油站的失败经历，甚至调侃自己成立了“航空股戒断热线”。然而，巴菲特认为最大的错误并非做错决定（commission），而是错失良机（omission）。他坦言因为犹豫不决（嘬大拇指）错过了在能力圈内的房利美，这让他付出了至少数十亿美元的隐性代价。最后，他再次重申了“20次打卡”的严谨投资观，提醒大家在面对投资机会时要极度克制与深思熟虑。

[原文] [Student]: good morning um I know you're famed for your success but I was curious if there were any particular moments in your life that or mistakes or failures that you've made that were particularly memorable what you may have learned from them and if you had any particular advice for the students here and dealing with uh with uh discouraging circumstances

[译文] [学生]: 早上好。嗯，我知道您以成功著称，但我很好奇您的一生中是否有一些特别的时刻，或者是您犯过的让您记忆犹新的错误或失败？您从中学到了什么？对于在座的学生，在应对，嗯——应对令人沮丧的境况时，您有什么特别的建议吗？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I well I made I've made a lot of mistakes biggest mistake well not the biggest necessarily the biggest but but buying Burkshire haway itself was a mistake because Berkshire was a lousy textile business and I bought it very cheap

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我，嗯，我犯过——我犯过很多错误。最大的错误，嗯，不一定是最大的，但是——但是买下伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）本身就是一个错误，因为伯克希尔是一家糟糕的纺织企业，而我当时买它是因为它非常便宜。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I'd been taught by Ben Graham to buy things on a quantitative basis look around for things that are cheap and that I was taught that we'll say in 194 9 or 50 made a big impression on me so I went around looking for what I call you cigar butts of stocks

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我曾受本·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）的教导，基于定量的基础去买东西，四处寻找便宜货。那是我们在1949年或50年学到的，这给我留下了深刻的印象，所以我到处寻找我称之为“雪茄烟蒂（cigar butts）”的股票。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and the cigar butt approach to buying stocks is that you walk down the street and you're looking around for cigar butts and you find this on thisly this terrible looking soggy ugly looking cigar one puff left in it but you pick it up and you get your one puff disgusting you throw it away but it's free I mean it's cheap and then you look around for another soggy you know one puff cigarette

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 这种买股票的“雪茄烟蒂”方法是这样的：你走在街上，四处寻找雪茄烟蒂，然后你发现了这个——这个看起来很糟糕、湿漉漉、丑陋不堪的雪茄，只剩下一口可抽了。但你把它捡起来，抽了那最后一口，很恶心，你把它扔掉，但它是免费的。我的意思是，它很便宜，然后你又去寻找另一个湿漉漉的、你知道的、只能抽一口的烟蒂。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well well that's what I did for years it's a mistake uh although you can make money doing it but you can't make it with big money it's so much easier just to to buy wonderful businesses so now I rather buy a wonderful business at a fair price than a fair business at a wonderful price

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，那就是我这么多年来一直在做的事。这是个错误。嗯——虽然你这么做也能赚钱，但你赚不了大钱。直接去买入出色的企业要容易得多。所以现在，我宁愿以合理的价格（fair price）买入一家出色的企业，也不愿以出色的价格（wonderful price）买入一家平庸的企业。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but in those days I was buying cheap stocks and birkshire was selling below its working capital per share you got the plants for nothing you got the machinery for nothing you got the inventory and receivables at a discount it was cheap so I bought it and 20 years later I was still running a lousy business and that money did not compound

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但在那些日子里，我买的都是廉价股票，而伯克希尔的售价低于其每股营运资金。你等于白送拿到了工厂，白送拿到了机器设备，你以折扣价买到了库存和应收账款。它很便宜，所以我买了它。结果20年后，我依然在经营一家糟糕的企业，而且那笔钱并没有产生复利。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you really want to be in a wonderful business cuz the time is the friend of the wonderful business you keep compounding it keeps doing more business and you keep making more money time is the enemy of the lousy business

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 你真的应该涉足一家出色的企业，因为时间是出色企业的朋友。你不断地复利，它不断地扩大业务，你也不断地赚更多的钱。而时间是糟糕企业的敌人。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I could have sold Berkshire perhaps liquidated it and made a quick little profit you know one puff but staying with those kind of businesses is is is a big mistake so you might say I learned something out of that mistake

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我本可以卖掉伯克希尔，也许将其清算，赚一笔快钱，也就是“抽那一口”。但与这类企业死磕到底，是——是——是一个巨大的错误。所以你可能会说，我从那个错误中学到了一些东西。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and I would have been way better off taking what I did with Burkshire is I kept buying better businesses I started Insurance business Seas candy the Buffalo all all kinds of things I would have been way better doing that with a with a brand new little entity that I'd set up rather than using Burkshire as the platform

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果我用我后来对伯克希尔所做的方式去做（我会好得多）：我不断买入更好的企业，我开始涉足保险业务、喜诗糖果（See's Candy）、《布法罗新闻报》（the Buffalo News）各种各样的生意。如果我当时用一个自己成立的、全新的小实体来做这些事，而不是用伯克希尔作为平台，我会好得多。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: now I've had a lot of fun out of it I mean everything in life seems to turn out for the better so I I I don't have any complaints about that but it was a dumb thing to do

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 不过现在我也从中获得了很大的乐趣。我的意思是，生活中的一切似乎都在往好的方向发展，所以我——我——我对此没有任何抱怨，但这确实是一件愚蠢的事情。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I went into US Air I bought a preferred stock in 1989 uh as soon as my check cleared the company went into the red and never got out I mean it was a really dumb I mean it uh

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我后来投资了全美航空（US Air），在1989年买入了它的优先股。嗯——我的支票一兑现，这家公司就开始亏损（went into the red），而且再也没有扭亏为盈。我的意思是，这真的太蠢了，我的意思是，它——嗯。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I've got an 800 number I call now whenever I think about buying an air airline stock I call them up any hour that fortunately I can call them at 3: in the morning and I just dial and I say my name's Warren I'm an AOH holic you know and I'm thinking about buying this thing and then they talk me down I mean takes takes takes hours sometimes but it's worth it believe me uh

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我现在有一个800免费电话，每当我想要买入航空股的时候，我就打给他们。随时都能打，幸运的是我可以在凌晨3点打给他们。我只管拨号，然后说：“我的名字叫沃伦，我是一个‘航空股瘾君子（Air-aholic）’，你知道的，我正在考虑买这玩意儿。”然后他们会劝阻我。我的意思是，有时这需要——需要花上好几个小时，但这是值得的，相信我。嗯——

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: if you ever think about that air buying an airline stock call me and I'll give you the 800 number cuz you you don't want to do it uh but we got lucky in terms of how we eventually came out on it but it was a dumb dumb decision all mine uh

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果你曾考虑过那个——买入一只航空股，打给我，我会把那个800号码给你。因为你——你绝对不想去干这事的。嗯，我们在最终脱身的方式上算是走运了，但那是一个极其愚蠢的决定，全怪我。嗯——

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and I've done biggest biggest uh in terms of EV in terms of opportunity cost eventual costs I bought half interest in a Sinclair Filling Station when I was about 20 with a guy I was in the National Guard with and I had about $10,000 then and I put $2,000 in and I lost it all so that was 20%

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而且我犯过最大的——最大的，嗯，在预期价值（EV）、在机会成本、最终成本方面——大约在我20岁时，我和国民警卫队里的一个伙计买下了一个辛克莱加油站（Sinclair Filling Station）一半的权益。我当时大概有1万美元，我投了2000美元进去，结果赔了个精光，所以那亏掉了20%。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and that means that the opportunity cost is now $6 billion dollar of that of that uh filling station which is big price to pay for you know getting to wipe a few windows and a few windshields and things like that so actually I like it when Berkshire goes down because it reduced the cost of that mistake on an opportunity uh

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而这意味着那个——那个加油站的机会成本现在是60亿美元！这个代价未免也太大了，就为了换取，你知道的，去擦几扇车窗、几块挡风玻璃之类的机会。所以事实上，我挺喜欢伯克希尔股价下跌的，因为这降低了那个错误带来的机会成本损失。嗯——

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but the biggest mistakes we've made by far I've made not we've made biggest mistakes I've made by far are mistakes of omission and not commission

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但是到目前为止，我们犯过的最大错误——不是我们，是我犯过的最大错误，绝大多数都是“错失良机（omission）”而不是“做错决定（commission）”。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean it's the things I knew enough to do they were within my circle of competence and I was sucking my thumb and that is really those are the ones that hurt they don't show up any place

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的意思是，对于那些我足够了解、原本应该去做的事情，它们在我的能力圈范围内，而我却在一旁嘬大拇指（犹豫不决）。那才是真正——真正让人痛心疾首的错误，而且这些错误不会在任何地方显示出来。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I probably cost Burkshire at least $5 billion for example by sucking my thumb 20 years ago or close to it when Fanny May was was having some troubles and we could have bought the whole company for practically nothing

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 举个例子，大概在20年前或者差不多的时候，我因为“嘬大拇指”可能让伯克希尔至少损失了50亿美元。当时房利美（Fannie Mae）遇到了一些麻烦，我们本可以几乎不花什么钱就买下整个公司。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and I don't worry about that if it's Microsoft because I don't know it Microsoft isn't in my circle of competence and so I I I I I don't have any reason to think I'm entitled to make money out of Microsoft or out of cocoa beans or whatever

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果错失的是微软（Microsoft），我一点都不在意，因为我不了解它。微软不在我的能力圈范围内，所以我——我——我没有理由认为我理应从微软，或是从可可豆或其他任何东西上赚钱。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but I did know enough to understand Fanny May and I blew it and that never shows up under conventional accounting but the co I know the cost of it I know I know you know I I passed it up and those are the big big mistakes and uh I've had plenty of them

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但我当时确确实实足够了解房利美，而我却搞砸了。这在传统的会计报表上永远不会显示出来，但这个成——我知道它的成本（代价），我知道。我知道，你知道的，我错过了它。而这些才是大错特错，并且，嗯，我犯过很多这种错误。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: at and you unless I tell you about them in the annual report and I resist the temptation sometimes unless I tell you about them in the annual report you're not going to know it because it doesn't show up under conventional accounting but om mission is way bigger than Co Mission

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 在——除非我在年度报告里告诉你们——而我有时还要克制住（不写）的诱惑——除非我在年度报告里告诉你们，否则你们是不会知道的。因为它在传统会计下是体现不出来的。但错失良机（omission）的代价要远比做错决定（commission）大得多。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: there's big opportunities in life have to be seized uh we don't do very many things but when we get the chance to do something that's right and big we've got to do it and even to do it in a small scale is just as big a mistake almost is not doing it at all I mean if really got to you got to grab them when they come because they you're not going to get 500 great opportunities

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 生命中的重大机遇必须被牢牢抓住。嗯，我们做的事情并不多，但当我们有机会去做一件既正确又重大的事情时，我们必须放手去做。即使只做很小规模的尝试，也几乎和完全没做一样，是个巨大的错误。我的意思是，如果真的看准了，当机会来临时你就得一把抓住它们，因为你这辈子不可能遇到500个绝佳的机会。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you would be better off if when you got out of school here you got a punch card with 20 punches on it and every big Financial every financial decision you made you used up a punch you'd get very rich because you'd think through very hard each one of them

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果你从这里毕业时能拿到一张可以打卡20次的打卡器，那会对你大有裨益。你每做一个重大的财务——每一个财务决策，都会消耗掉一次打卡机会。这样你会变得非常富有，因为你会对它们中的每一个都进行极其严谨的深思熟虑。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you went to a cocktail party and somebody talked about a company you didn't even understand what they did or couldn't pronounce the name but they made some money last week and another one like it you wouldn't buy it if you only had 20 punches on that card

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果你去参加一个鸡尾酒会，有人谈论一家你甚至都不了解其主营业务、或者连名字都不会念的公司，只是因为他们上周赚了点钱，以及类似的其他公司。如果你那张卡上只有20次机会，你是绝对不会买入的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: there's a temptation to dabble if uh particularly during bull markets uh uh in stocks is so easy you know it's easier now than ever because you can do it online you know just you click it in and maybe it goes up a point and get excited about that and you buy another one the next day and so on

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 人们总是面临涉足投机的诱惑，特别是，嗯——特别是在牛市（bull markets）期间。嗯——在股市里这太容易了。你知道，现在比以往任何时候都容易，因为你可以在线交易。你懂的，只需点击一下，也许它涨了一个点，你就为此感到兴奋，然后第二天你又买了一只，以此类推。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you can't make any money over time doing that but if you had a punch card with only 20 punches you weren't going to get another one in the rest of your life you would think a long time before every investment decision and you would make good ones and you'd make big ones and you probably wouldn't even use all 20 punches at the in your lifetime but you wouldn't need to

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 长此以往，你用这种方式是赚不到钱的。但如果你有一张只有20次机会的打卡器，而且你余生再也得不到另一张了，那么在做每一个投资决策之前你都会思考很久。你会做出好的决策，做出重大的决策，而且你这辈子甚至可能都用不完这20次打卡机会，但你也不需要用完它。

章节 6：卖出准则与股东关系——寻找“低预期”的长期联姻

📝 本节摘要：

本节聚焦巴菲特的“卖出准则”。面对学生关于何时抛售不良资产的提问，巴菲特回顾了早年因资金短缺而不得不“弃弱留强”的经历。但他指出，目前伯克希尔的策略已演变为“绝不轻易出售优质的全资控股企业”，即便有人出价三倍也不卖。他将伯克希尔的股东视为“终身合伙人”，并用极其幽默的“婚姻论”阐述了股东关系管理的秘诀：正如维系长久婚姻的核心不在于美貌或智商，而在于“低预期”，他希望通过开诚布公的沟通，让合伙人保持低预期，从而达成一段长久且坚固的“财务婚姻”。

[原文] [Student]: yep Mr Buffett good morning um in your comments about making mistakes and errors like that you talk a little bit about your sell discipline when you're in a position and you you feel like it's no longer good you know what criteria to you use to when you just finally abandon it yeah

[译文] [学生]: 是的，巴菲特先生，早上好。嗯，在您关于犯错误和类似失误的评论中，您谈到了一点您的卖出准则（sell discipline）。当您持有一个仓位，并且您——您觉得它不再是个好投资时，你知道，当您最终决定放弃它时，您使用的是什么标准？是的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: whe n I started out the self situation has changed over the years cuz when I started out I had way more ideas than money I mean I would go through Moody's manual I went through it Page by Page and then I went through it again again Page by page and I found stocks in there that I could understand that we selling at like two times earnings even one times earnings

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 当我刚起步时——关于卖出（注：原文自懂字幕误将sell识别为self）的情况这些年来已经发生了改变——因为当我刚起步时，我的想法远比我的资金多。我的意思是，我会去翻阅《穆迪手册》（Moody's manual），我一页一页地翻看，然后我又一遍又一遍地逐页翻看。我在里面找到了我能看懂的股票，它们的售价大概只有两倍市盈率，甚至一倍市盈率。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well when you only have 10,000 bucks that can get a little frustrating and and if you don't like to borrow money which I never like to borrow money so I was always coming up with more ideas than I had money so I had to sell whatever I liked least to buy something new that just was compelling to me

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，当你只有1万美元的时候，这会让人有点沮丧，而且——如果你不喜欢借钱，而我从不喜欢借钱——所以我总是产生比我的资金更多的想法。所以我不得不卖掉我最不喜欢的那些资产，去买入那些对我来说极具吸引力的新东西。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and for a long time I was in that mode and now our problem is we have more money than ideas uh so we're if you look at our annual report which is on the uh internet under at our homepage Berkshire out.com you'll see something in the back called the economic principles of birkshire

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 很长一段时间我都在那种模式下。而现在我们的问题是，我们的钱比想法多。嗯——所以我们——如果你看看我们在互联网上、在我们主页Berkshire Hathaway.com（注：原文口误为Berkshire out.com）上的年度报告，你会在后面看到一些被称为“伯克希尔的经济原则”的内容。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and you will see which I believe in setting out for my my p artners they are my partners I don't look at them as shareholders I look at them as partners they're going to be my partners for life so I want to tell them how I think and if they don't agree with the way I think that's fine but I don't want them to I don't want to be disappointed in me you know so I lay out there

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 你会看到我坚信为我的——我的合伙人们定下的原则。他们是我的合伙人，我没有把他们看作是股东（shareholders），我把他们看作是合伙人（partners）。他们将成为我终身的合伙人，所以我想告诉他们我是怎么想的。如果他们不同意我的想法，那没关系，但我不想让他们——我不想让他们对我感到失望，你知道吗？所以我把这些都坦诚布公地写在那里。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and I say in terms of our wholly owned businesses we're not going to sell no matter how much anybody offers this form I mean if somebody offers us three times what something is worth se's candy the Buffalo News Bor shimes whatever it may be we're not going to sell it

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我说，就我们全资拥有的企业而言，无论任何人出价多少，我们都不会卖。我的意思是，如果有人出价三倍于资产本身的价值——喜诗糖果（See's Candy）、《布法罗新闻报》（Buffalo News）、波仙珠宝（Borsheims），不管它是什么——我们都不会卖。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I may be wrong in having that approach I know I'm not wrong if I owned 100% a birer because that's the way I want to live my life I've got all the money I could possibly need you know it just amounts to a a change in the newspaper story on my obituary and the amount of money that the foundation has

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我采用这种方法也许是错的，但我知道如果我100%拥有伯克希尔，我就没做错，因为那就是我想要的生活方式。我已经拥有了我可能需要的所有金钱，你知道，（卖掉它们）只不过是改变一下报纸上关于我讣告的报道内容，以及改变基金会拥有的金钱数量而已。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and to break off relationships with people I like and people that have join me because they think it's a permanent home to do that simply because somebody waves a big check at me would be like selling one of my children because somebody weighed a big check so I won't do that and I want to tell my partners I won't do it so that they're not disappointed me

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而且，要让我与我喜欢的人、以及那些因为认为这里是永久归宿而加入我的人断绝关系——仅仅因为有人向我挥舞一张大额支票就这么做，那简直就像是因为有人开了一张大额支票而卖掉我的一个孩子一样。所以我不会那样做，而且我想告诉我的合伙人们我不会那样做，这样他们就不会对我感到失望。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: more and more with certain stocks we've got that approach now if we were chronically short of funds and had all kinds of opportunities coming we might have a somewhat different approach but our inclination is not to sell things unless we get really discouraged perhaps with the management or we think the economic characteristics of the business change in a big way I mean and that happens

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 越来越多了，对于某些股票我们现在也采取这种方法。如果我们长期缺乏资金，并且面临着各种各样的机会，我们可能会采取有些不同的方法。但我们的倾向是不会去出售东西，除非我们真的感到非常沮丧，也许是对管理层感到沮丧，或者我们认为这家企业的经济特征发生了巨大的改变。我的意思是，这种事是会发生的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so but we're not going to sell simply because it looks too high in in all likelihood I mean that you can't make that 100% but it's it's uh that's that's that's the principle under which we're operating we're generating right now five billion of cash a year at least so it's 100 million bucks every week

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以，但我们极大概率不会仅仅因为它的价格看起来太高了就把它卖掉。我的意思是，你不能把话说得100%绝对，但那是——那是——那就是我们运作的原则。我们现在每年至少产生50亿美元的现金，所以那是每周1亿美元。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and you know just that we've been talking here half an hour and I h aven't done a damn thing uh so uh it's you know the real question is how do you put it out intelligently and and if we were selling things it'd be just that much more so there may there there may come a time when that would change

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而且你知道，就我们在这里聊天的这半个小时里，我啥正经事都没干（注：暗指现金还在源源不断地产生）。嗯，所以，嗯——你知道，真正的问题是，你该如何明智地把这些钱投出去？而如果我们还在卖东西的话，钱只会变得更多。所以也许——也许——也许总有一天这种情况会改变。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but but we want to and I have Partners shareholders Partners who would say if you can get three times what se's candy is worth why don't you sell it and that's why I want to be sure before they come in they know how I think on that I mean they're they're entitled to know that

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但是——但是我们希望，而且我也有一些合伙人——股东、合伙人们，他们会说：“如果你能拿到喜诗糖果价值三倍的钱，你为什么不卖掉它呢？”这就是为什么我想确保在他们加入之前，他们知道我在这个问题上是怎么想的。我的意思是，他们——他们有权知道这一点。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: uh you really want think for a minute you know if you're going to get married and you want a marriage that's going to last not necessarily the happiest marriage you know or one that that uh Martha Stewart will talk about or anything but you want a marriage that's going to last what quality do you look for on a spouse

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，你真的需要花一分钟想一想。你知道，如果你打算结婚，并且你想要一段能够长久的婚姻——不一定是最幸福的婚姻，你知道，或者那种，嗯，玛莎·斯图尔特（Martha Stewart）会津津乐道的那种，或者任何其他形式——但你想要一段能长久的婚姻，你会在配偶身上寻找什么特质？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: one quality do you look for brains do you look for humor do you look for character do you look for beauty no you look for low expectations that is that is the marriage tha t's going to last both have low expectations

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 哪一种特质？你会寻找聪明才智吗？你会寻找幽默感吗？你会寻找品格吗？你会寻找美貌吗？不，你应该寻找“低预期（low expectations）”。那就是——那就是能够长久的婚姻：双方都抱有低预期。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean it uh uh and I want my partners to be on the low side on expectations coming in because want the marriage to last it's a financial marriage when they join me at Berkshire and I I don't want them to think I'm going to do things that I'm I'm not going to do so that's uh that's our guiding principle theice is all free and your marital advice everything else next

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我是认真的。嗯——嗯——而且我希望我的合伙人们在加入时能将预期保持在较低的水平，因为我希望这段婚姻能够长久。当他们加入伯克希尔与我共事时，这是一场财务上的婚姻。而我——我不想让他们认为我会去做那些我——我根本不会去做的事情。所以那是——那是我们的指导原则。这建议全免费（注：原文theice为the advice的错音识别），还有你们的婚姻建议以及所有其他的。下一个问题。

章节 7：企业避税与底线——合法激励与非法逃税的界限

📝 本节摘要：

本节探讨了企业避税的边界与投资者的道德底线。针对学生关于“企业利用避税手段是否对投资者有益”的提问，巴菲特明确区分了“合法税收优惠”与“非法逃税”。他以伯克希尔参与政府鼓励的“低收入住房税收抵免”为例，说明顺应国会政策的合法避税无可厚非；同时指出，企业即使为省税将注册地外迁至百慕大，只要遵守规则也是合法的。然而，他严厉抨击了近年来游走在规则边缘、甚至越界构成欺诈的逃税行为，以及审计机构与企业串通“购买法律意见”以逃避牢狱之灾的乱象。他坚定地表示，伯克希尔绝不会为了短期的利益而触碰这些底线。

[原文] [Student]: good morning Mr Buffett I have a question regarding evaluation of the sness of investment in recent years it appears that the use of uh tax Sheltering incorporation is increasing and such you know companies like ups and others are involved in cold battles over uh shelters with IRS uh and as we know most of these transactions are fairly artificial but yet there is a profit there from the investor perspective do you think it's beneficial for investor that the company that they invest uh are involved in those uh shorters and if so do you think it' be helpful is if those transac disclosed in uh statements meaning the uh notes to statements

[译文] [学生]: 早上好，巴菲特先生。我有一个关于近期投资稳健性评估的问题。似乎近年来，嗯，企业使用避税港（tax Sheltering）的情况正在增加。而且，你知道，像UPS以及其他一些公司卷入了与美国国税局（IRS）关于，嗯，避税的冷战中。嗯，正如我们所知，这些交易大多相当人为做作，但从投资者的角度来看确实有利可图。您认为投资者投资的公司，嗯，卷入这些，嗯，避税行为（shorters/shelters），对投资者是有益的吗？如果是这样，您认为在，嗯，财务报表中，也就是报表附注中披露这些交易会有帮助吗？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I'm not sure I got that 100% George could you

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我不太确定我完全听懂了，乔治（George），你能……

[原文] [Student]: I I will repeat if you think that uh involvement of corporations that you invest or anybody for that matter invest in tax shelter which is by some definition tax shelters right

[译文] [学生]: 我——我重复一遍。如果您认为，嗯，您投资的或者任何人投资的企业卷入了避税港（tax shelter）——在某种定义上就是避税对吧？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I've never used one you

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我从来没用过……

[原文] [Student]: no no I'm not I'm not saying so I'm asking if you know that that Corporation is involved in uh such activity that is beneficial in short term would you think that that helpful for investors

[译文] [学生]: 不，不，我不是——我不是那个意思。我问的是，如果您知道那家公司卷入了，嗯，这种在短期内有利可图的活动，您认为那对投资者有帮助吗？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well there's I mean there there's there perfectly legal ways to shelter taxes I mean we we did and still do but we were one of the earliest ones to go in for low-income tax housing credits in fact I met with president first President Bush about about that one and that benefits us to mild degree it it's not a big element uh of birsh I mean it's a penis in terms of berkshire's overall value but it it is a congressionally ordained uh tax benefit I wouldn't call it exactly a shelter it's a tax benefit that Congress has decided they're willing to offer businesses and and because they think it's the best way to to uh generate uh low-income housing so we participate in something but that it's not a it's not a big factor in in in what we do and uh but I don't there's there's nothing wrong with that

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，这——我的意思是，有——有——有完全合法的避税方式。我的意思是，我们——我们过去做过，现在仍在做。但我们是最早参与低收入住房税收抵免（low-income tax housing credits）的公司之一。事实上，我曾就这个问题与第一任布什总统（President Bush）会过面，那对我们有轻微的益处。它——它不是伯克希尔的一个重要组成部分。嗯，我的意思是，就伯克希尔的整体价值而言，这只是九牛一毛（注：原文机器字幕误识别为penis，实为pittance的口误或错识），但这——这是国会颁布的，嗯，一项税收优惠（tax benefit）。我不会把它确切地称为避税（shelter），它是国会决定愿意提供给企业的一项税收优惠。而且——因为他们认为这是，嗯，产生，嗯，低收入住房的最佳方式。所以我们参与了其中一些，但这——它不是——在我们所做的事情中，它不是一个大因素。而且，嗯——但我不觉得——这没有任何错。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: then if you get into tax evasion I mean that's a whole different game at that point they ought go to jail you know uh but certain businesses some insurance companies reincorporated in Bermuda and you can save a lot of taxes you have to meet certain other tests which we wouldn't want to meet but if we were willing to meet those other tests there's nothing illegal or immoral about us moving to Bermuda we're not going to do it and uh but if if the restrictions weren't there I mean the tax code is the rule book and you follow the rule book

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 接下来，如果你涉足逃税（tax evasion），我的意思是，那就完全是另一回事了，到了那种地步，他们应该进监狱，你知道的。嗯——但是某些企业，一些保险公司在百慕大（Bermuda）重新注册，这样你可以省下很多税。你必须满足某些其他的测试条件，而这些条件是我们不想去满足的，但如果我们愿意满足那些其他测试条件，我们搬到百慕大也并没有任何非法或不道德的地方。我们不会这么做。而且，嗯——但如果——如果那些限制不存在，我的意思是，税法（tax code）就是规则手册，你只需遵循规则手册办事。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I think some of the things people do in terms of bending that rule book get very close to fraud and sometimes cross the line in Def fraud and when they do I think they ought to be be prosecuted uh uh but that's that's another game

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我认为，人们在钻规则手册空子方面所做的一些事情，已经非常接近欺诈（fraud），而且有时已经越过了界限变成了彻头彻尾的欺诈。当他们这样做时，我认为他们应该——应该被起诉。嗯——嗯——但那是——那就是另一回事了。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and inent there has been more pushing on that I would say in the last five years and certainly was my experience earlier and there are more there I think now it's diminishing the last year or twoo but a couple years ago there was some very aggressive marketing by some of the auditing firms and of of these even with share percentage shares of the gain to be paid to the a I think that those things got fairly dubious and particularly when they shopped for legal opinions you know so that if you got caught doing these things you can say well I was relying on this legal opinion and therefore I shouldn't go to jail but just pay the back taxes

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而且，碰巧的是（注：原文inent疑为incidentally的字幕识别错误），我想说，在过去五年里，这方面的推进变多了，而且肯定比我早年的经验要多。我认为最近一两年这种情况正在减少。但几年前，一些审计公司在这方面进行了非常激进的营销，甚至要求从收益中按百分比提取份额支付给审计方（注：原文the a疑为the auditors的识别错误）。我认为这些事情变得相当可疑，特别是当他们四处寻找对自己有利的法律意见（shopped for legal opinions）时。你知道的，这样一来，如果你做这些事被抓了，你可以说：“好吧，我是依赖这份法律意见的，因此我不该进监狱，只需补缴欠税就行了。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so I I don't know of any anything worse associated with that has done that but I obviously if they push too far we don't want to be there y

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以，我——我不知道还有什么比这更糟糕的事情了。但我——显然，如果他们做得太过分，我们绝不想卷入其中。是的。

章节 8：财富观与慈善事业——将幸运的回报还给社会

📝 本节摘要：

本节中，巴菲特分享了他对财富分配与慈善事业的深刻见解。他高度赞扬了比尔·盖茨在慈善领域的理性与高效，即把资金集中用于能在全球范围内拯救最多生命的项目（如疫苗和抗击艾滋病）。巴菲特宣布，他和妻子离世后，99%以上的个人财富都将捐给基金会，因为他的财富取之于社会，理应还给社会。他认为私人慈善的意义在于去解决那些政府无法解决、缺乏自然资金支持且极具挑战性的社会难题，绝不赞成“滴管式（雨露均沾）”的捐赠。同时，他提出了著名的“卵巢彩票”理论，坦言自己的成功并非因为高人一等，而是恰好以适应资本主义社会的“出厂设置”降生在了正确的时代和国家，这份运气带来的财富最终应当由品德高尚的受托人明智地回馈给社会。

[原文] [Student]: I was curious with the uh large number of people you now have with h tremendous amounts of wealth what do you think of the current state of philanthropy

[译文] [学生]: 我很好奇，嗯，现在有大量拥有巨额财富的人，您对当前慈善事业的现状有什么看法？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well I'll be out this week uh actually I'm going to Coca-Cola meting and I'm flying out to Seattle and and and talking to the United Way group out there they Seattle United Way raises more per capita I believe in the United Way in the country and and Bill Gates will be there we're talking jointly

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，我这周要出门，嗯，实际上我要去参加可口可乐的会议，然后飞往西雅图，去和那里的联合劝募会（United Way）团体交谈。西雅图联合劝募会的人均筹款额，我相信是全国联合劝募会中最高的，而且比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）也会在那里，我们将共同发表演讲。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: his mother was very active in United Way but Bill uh was going to give away over a billion dollars a year a lot more later on but right now a billion and it's very interesting I mean he is very rational about it and he's very informed

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 他的母亲在联合劝募会非常活跃，但比尔，嗯，打算每年捐出超过10亿美元，以后还会捐得多得多，但目前是10亿。这非常有趣，我的意思是，他在这个问题上非常理性，而且见识广博。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: in fact he got somebody I think his primary adviser in the medical field is a fellow who was with the CDC in in Atlanta and Bill reads 15 books a a month on this I mean he he he can just absorb it I I wouldn't be able to get it that fast but he just says with a billion he wants to save as many lives per year as he can

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 事实上，他找了个人，我想他在医学领域的主要顾问是一位曾在亚特兰大疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）工作过的伙计。比尔每个月要读15本关于这方面的书，我的意思是，他——他——他能直接吸收这些知识。我——我没法学得那么快，但他只是说，用这10亿美元，他希望每年能尽可能多地拯救生命。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so how do he that's his objective's it's just as much a metric of his of his foundation as some other metric return on Capital might be for a business

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 那么他该怎么做？这是他的目标。这作为他的——他的基金会的衡量标准，就如同资本回报率（return on Capital）作为企业的衡量标准一样重要。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and he says I'm going to spend a billion dollars a year how many how many lives can be saved for that so he's gotten very heavily into vaccines and and uh AIDS in Africa a number of things uh it's very rational uh

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 他说：“我每年要花10亿美元，这笔钱能——能拯救多少人的生命？”所以他非常深入地投入到疫苗领域，以及，嗯，非洲的艾滋病等许多事务中。嗯，这非常理性。嗯——

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I personally think all of my 99 point something per of my netw worth will go to a foundation after the latter of my wife and I die I mean it's all going to go to a foundation as far as I'm concerned I got it from society it's going to go to society

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我个人认为，我和妻子中后离世的那位去世后，我99点几的个人净资产都将捐给一个基金会。我的意思是，全都会捐给基金会。就我而言，我的财富取之于社会，必将用之于社会。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I've written a letter to my trustees and I've got very few trustees if you got a whole bunch of Trustees in my view it they just homogenize themselves down to sort of the lowest common denominator

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我给我的受托人们写了一封信，我的受托人非常少。如果你有一大帮受托人，在我看来，他们只会自我同化，最终妥协于某种最低标准的共识（lowest common denominator）。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: because you get 30 people in a room and uh prestigious people but they'll they'll all have their particular alom Moder and they'll all have their particular hospital and it'll become a big trade golf game you know it'll be a little like Congress

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 因为如果你把30个人聚在一个房间里，嗯，都是有声望的人，但他们——他们都有自己偏爱的母校（注：原文alom Moder为alma mater的机器误识），他们都有自己偏爱的医院，然后这就变成了一场大型的利益交换高尔夫球赛。你知道的，那会有点像美国国会。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so uh I have very few people and I don't give them anything specific because I tell them their judgment above ground will be better than my instructions from six feet underground so I don't like to think that but it's true

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以，嗯，我只有很少几个受托人，我没有给他们任何具体的指示，因为我告诉他们，他们在地面上（活着时）的判断，总好过我在地下六英尺（死后）给出的指示。所以我虽然不喜欢往那方面想，但这是事实。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so I tell them look Society are the ones that don't have an actual funding constituency you or are just damned intractable and very difficult to solve

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以我告诉他们：“听着，社会上有些问题是没有实际资金后盾（funding constituency）的，或者就是极其棘手且极难解决的。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so I tell I am not going to haunt them at all if they spend big money on some terribly important problem and they fail because they're taking on tough problems

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以我告诉他们，如果他们在某个极其重要的问题上花了大笔钱却失败了，我绝对不会（阴魂不散地）去纠缠他们，因为他们正在承担艰难的问题。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: when I buy businesses I'm buying easy businesses but the reason the big problems of society are big problems is that they're damn tough to solve so they are they're swinging at bad pitches I'm swinging at easy pitches in business but they're swinging at they have to swing at bad pitches

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 当我收购企业时，我买的是容易看懂的企业。但社会上的大问题之所以是大问题，正是因为它们太难解决了。所以他们——他们是在挥棒击打坏球（bad pitches）。在商业中，我挥棒击打的是好球（easy pitches），但他们挥棒——他们不得不去击打坏球。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but I tell them I want them to try and do it and if they fail it doesn't bother me at all I tell them if they give a million bucks a here and a million ion bucks there and a million bucks there they're not going to sleep because I'm going to be haunting them I'm going to come back every night you know

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但我告诉他们，我希望他们去尝试、去做，就算失败了我也毫不在乎。我告诉他们，如果他们在这里捐个100万，在那里捐个100万，在那里又捐个100万，他们会睡不着觉的，因为我会去缠着他们，我每天晚上都会阴魂不散地回来找他们，你知道的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I do not want the ey dropper approach used to philanthropy uh but I want them to use their judgment to look at important problems that do not have a natural funding constituency

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我绝对不希望把“滴管式（eye dropper）”的方法用在慈善事业上。嗯，但我希望他们运用自己的判断力，去关注那些没有天然资金后盾的重要问题。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you know if the government's going to fund it fine you know I mean there should be funding important problems but we won't need to do it the role of priv philanthropy in my my opinion is to fund things that don't have the natural constituency and that's what Bill's doing

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 你知道，如果政府打算提供资金，那很好。你知道，我的意思是，确实应该资助重要的问题，但那样就不需要我们去做了。在我看来，私人慈善机构的作用，就是去资助那些没有天然资金后盾的事情，而这正是比尔正在做的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: there isn't a there aren't a bunch of people around that you can make an emotional appeal to to make vaccines available to millions and millions of kids around the world it just it doesn't tug at anybody's heartstrings you can't name buildings after them

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 并没有——并没有一大群人让你可以通过情感呼吁，来为全世界成千上万的孩子提供疫苗。这——这无法触动任何人的心弦，你也没法用他们的名字来命名建筑物。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean it just isn't the sort of thing that you can raise money for on an emotional basis and there's nothing wrong with raising money on an emotional basis but that is a problem that won't get solved by a funding constituent that's responding to that

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的意思是，这根本就不是那种你可以基于情感基础去筹集资金的事情。基于情感基础筹集资金并没有错，但那样的问题，是无法通过回应情感呼吁的资金赞助者来解决的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but Bill is responding to what in his mind is is the important thing which is saving lives and he doesn't care whether he gets his name out a building or whether anything happens or whether anybody knows about it I mean he gets publicity just because of the scale he's on but it he doesn't care about that I can promise you that

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但比尔回应的是他心目中真正重要的事情，那就是拯救生命。他不在乎他的名字是否被挂在某栋建筑物上，不在乎会发生什么，也不在乎是否有任何人知道这件事。我的意思是，他之所以获得宣传关注，仅仅是因为他做的规模太大了，但他——他根本不在乎那些，我可以向你保证。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so that's my philosophy is that I got this money not because I'm a superior human being not because I've done more for society than other people

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以那就是我的哲学，我之所以得到这些钱，并不是因为我是一个更优越的人，也不是因为我对社会的贡献比别人多。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I was wired the right way to be dropped into the United States at this particular particular time I mean it's a huge capitalistic society and I'm wired no credit to me but I just born that way so that I'm better at asset allocation than other people to some degree just like other people are better at all kinds of other things

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的“出厂设置（wired）”恰好契合了在这个特定的、特定的时代被降生到美国。我的意思是，这是一个巨大的资本主义社会，而我的基因配置——这不是我的功劳，但我生来如此——使我在某种程度上比其他人更擅长资产配置，就像其他人更擅长各种各样其他事情一样。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and I was with two teachers out at Sun Valley that are doing more for society than I am and they don't this market system does nothing for them market system does all kinds of things for me

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我在太阳谷（Sun Valley）和两位老师在一起，他们为社会做的贡献比我大得多，但他们没有——这个市场体系对他们毫无回馈。而市场体系却给了我一切。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: gate says if I'd been born 5,000 years ago you know I'd have been some animals lunch you know cuz I can't run very fast and can't climb trees

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 盖茨说过，如果我早出生5000年，你知道的，我早就成了某些动物的午餐了。你知道，因为我跑得不快，也不会爬树。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean you know what those and I could I could tell that animal was chasing me in a wait till see how I can allocate assets you know it wouldn't have made any difference so here I am you know I'm born now you know I just very very lucky

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的意思是，你知道那是怎么回事。我总不能——我总不能对那只追我的动物说：“等一下，让你见识见识我怎么配置资产！”你知道，那不会有任何用处。所以我就在这里，你知道，我刚好在这个时代出生，你知道，我只是非常、非常的幸运。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and the odds when I was born in 1930 the odds were 50 to1 against me being born in the United States that's a terrible set of odds to face and yet I was dropped down here you know and if I'd been dropped down in Peru or someplace or or China I mean I wouldn't have had a chance

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 当我在1930年出生时，我出生在美国的概率是五十万分之一（注：此为巴菲特著名“卵巢彩票”概念的比喻，原文50 to 1疑为数字表述习惯或口误，译文以原文为准）——50比1的概率我不会出生在美国，那是面对的一种极其糟糕的几率。然而我却降生在了这里，你知道，如果我被降生在秘鲁或者其他什么地方，或者——或者中国，我的意思是，我根本不会有（今天这样的）机会。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so Society is what does it for you and and uh it should go back in my view it should go back to society if you've been lucky enough to be dropped into a society where your particular wiring pays off big you know it that uh that's just luck and and uh you know there's nothing wrong with being lucky I don't feel guilty about or anything else

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以是社会为你造就了这一切。而且，嗯，它应该回馈——在我看来，它应该回馈给社会。如果你足够幸运，降生在一个你的特定技能（基因配置）能得到巨大回报的社会，你知道它——嗯——那纯粹就是运气。而且，嗯，你知道，运气好并没有什么错，我对此没有任何负罪感或其他感觉。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but I also don't feel that I feel I have a lot of fun doing what I do but I feel the money should go back into society and it should go back as intelligently as it can

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但我也并不觉得——我觉得我在做我现在做的事情时获得了很多乐趣，但我认为这些钱应该回到社会中去，而且应该尽可能以最明智的方式回去。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and best way to do do it intelligently is to have highgrade and intelligent people administering it uh at the time and you don't know the problems that are going to be out there 10 years from now or 20 years from now or 30 years from now

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而明智地做到这一点的最好方法，是在那时让道德高尚（highgrade）且聪明的人来管理它。嗯，而且你不知道10年后、20年后或30年后社会上会出现什么问题。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but I do know if I've got a small number of high-grade smart people and high grade is more important I'll I'll if you gave me 20 extra points of IQ but but cheated a little on the high grade I wouldn't take it

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但我确实知道，如果我有一小群高品格的聪明人，而且高品格更为重要——我——我——如果你给我增加20点的智商，但在高品格上打一点点折扣，我都绝对不要。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: because they got to be they got to be there's so many chances to to do things in a petty way or you know to try to I mean people get subverted in their own minds to their own interest rather than the interests of the institution

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 因为他们必须是——他们必须是——（因为管理慈善基金）有太多的机会去做心胸狭隘的事，或者，你知道，试图去——我的意思是，人们的心智很容易被自己的私利所腐蚀颠覆，而置机构的利益于不顾。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so I really want super high-grade people doing it and I've got them and I think the money might do a lot of good it may do no good but it'll be operating in fields where if it does some good that good probably wouldn't have been done otherwise yep

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以我真的希望由极其高尚的人来做这件事，而且我已经找到他们了。我认为这些钱可能会发挥很大的作用，也可能毫无用处。但它将在那些领域运作——在那些领域，如果它确实产生了一些好的结果，那么那些好的结果很可能是通过其他任何途径都无法实现的。是的。

章节 9：百年股市启示录——市场情绪、贪婪与理性的博弈

📝 本节摘要：

在回答关于股市繁荣与衰退周期的问题时，巴菲特回顾了整个20世纪美国股市与宏观经济的奇特背离。他指出，尽管美国在这个世纪的每一个十年里人均GDP都在稳步增长，但股市却经历了长达56年的停滞期和仅有43年的狂飙期。这揭示了一个深刻的真理：股市的波动往往不反映基本面，而是由投资者的“后视镜”心理与群体性的贪婪、恐惧所驱动。他分享了1950年代以极低市盈率推销堪萨斯城人寿保险股票屡屡碰壁的趣事，强调在狂热的泡沫（如互联网泡沫）中保持情绪稳定和独立思考，才是获取巨额财富的终极秘诀。

[原文] [Student]: I was just wondering um there's a lot of differences between the recent boom and bust and stock market and one in the 1920s uh but there's also a lot of similarities and those similarities are are allowing people to draw the conclusion that uh stock prices will be depressed for uh some time to come what where do you disagree and agree with that conclusion

[译文] [学生]: 我只是在想，嗯，最近股市的繁荣与萧条和20世纪20年代的那次有很多不同之处，嗯，但也有很多相似之处。而这些相似之处让人们得出这样一个结论，嗯，股票价格在未来一段时间内将会被压抑。您在哪些方面同意或不同意这个结论？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: well the the whole century is quite interesting if you take the 20th century it was an unbelievable Century for the United States the GDP per capita and that's the way to think of it as per capita sometimes they talk about our GDP versus Europe's but if their population's the same every year and ours goes up 1% you've got to you know in the end you got to you got to have a divisor as well as a numerator

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，整个世纪都非常有趣。如果你纵观20世纪，对美国来说那是一个难以置信的世纪。人均GDP（GDP per capita），而且应该用人均的角度去思考它。有时人们谈论我们的GDP与欧洲的对比，但如果他们的人口每年保持不变，而我们的人口增长1%，你就必须，你知道，归根结底你必须——你必须既看分子也要看分母。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and so GDP per capita in the 20th century in the United States went up 610 per. actually qualitatively it went up far more than that because you can't really measure you know certain things uh in medicine or whatever it may be and improvements but just on a quantitative basis it went up every single decade including the decade of the 30s

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以在20世纪，美国的人均GDP增长了610%（610 per.）。实际上在质量上它的增长远不止于此，因为你无法真正衡量，你知道，某些事情，嗯，在医学上或其他任何方面的进步。但仅仅在数量基础上，它在每一个十年都在增长，甚至包括30年代那十年。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so here you had a 100 years when basically the US citizenry was getting was improving their lot decade by decade by decade the 30s it was up 13% uh best decade was World War II the 40s was up 36% the worst decade was the first world war so you get sometimes the anal you know you can get in trouble on analogies but in any event it was it was a huge period

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以在这里，你看到了这100年，基本上美国公民的命运在一个十年接一个十年地改善。30年代它增长了13%，嗯，最好的十年是二战时期，40年代增长了36%，最差的十年是一战时期。所以有时你做类比，你知道的，做类比可能会陷入麻烦，但无论如何，那是——那是一段宏大的时期。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: interestingly enough there were six big periods in there for the stock market in both directions there were three big bull market from 1900 to 1921 the Dow went from 66 to 71 less than a 10% move in 20 years less than half a percent a year you got dividends too but a half a so it didn't move

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 很有趣的是，那期间股市在两个方向上经历了六个大周期。有三次大牛市（bull market）。从1900年到1921年，道琼斯指数从66点涨到71点，20年里的变动不到10%，每年不到0.5%。你当然也拿到了股息，但是那百分之零点五——所以它其实根本没怎么动。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: from 21 to 29 as you point out it went it went from 71 to a high of 381 in September of 1929 went up 500% well obviously the the wellbeing of the country didn't go up 5 00% during that period and the well-being of the company country went up a whole lot more than 10% during that first 21 years

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 从21年到29年，正如你所指出的，它从——它从71点涨到了1929年9月381点的高点，涨了500%。嗯，显然这个国家的福祉在那段时间里并没有提升500%，而且在前21年里，这个国家（口误纠正）的福祉提升得远不止10%。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so he got this very uneven development then from 19 from September 1929 until the end of 1948 the Dow went from 381 to about 180 was cut in half and that was 18 long years and yet the per capita GDP was moving right up during this whole period so the economy was doing fine

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以你就看到了这种极其不均衡的发展。然后从19——从1929年9月一直到1948年底，道指从381点跌到了180点左右，被腰斩了，那是漫长的18年。然而在整个这段时期，人均GDP却在直线上升，所以经济其实运转良好。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: from 48 to 65 the Dow went again from about 180 up to close to 1,000 again 5 for one which was far out stripping it from 65 to 81 the Dow went down literally well again per capita GP and then we've had this last period where it's gone up terrifically

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 从48年到65年，道指再次从大约180点涨到接近1000点，又翻了5倍（5 for one），这远超了经济增速。从65年到81年，道指实实在在地往下跌，而嗯，人均GDP再次上涨。然后我们就迎来了这最后一段涨得极其惊人的时期。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: if you take the whole hundred years it went up10 for one every ,000 became 180,000 but 43 and a quarter year 43 and 3/4 years were those three big huge bull markets and 56 and a quarter years were periods of stagnation all in an economy that was doing fine you know year after year after year

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 如果你纵观这整整一百年，它涨了180倍，每1000变成了18万。但是有43又1/4年——43又3/4年是那三次超级大牛市，而有56又1/4年是停滞期。所有这些都发生在一个运行良好的经济体中，你知道，年复一年，年复一年。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: 56 and a quarter years net the Dow was down a couple hundred points during that period and the other 43 and 3/4 years made up the rest of this move from 66 to 11,000 somewh on the Dallas

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 在那56又1/4年里，道指净跌了几百点。而另外的43又3/4年构成了道指（口误为Dallas）从66点涨到11000点左右的其余所有涨幅。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so you say to yourself how could it be that you could have a country that was doing better and better and better and better citizens were living every every generation was was living better than the one that preceded it but you had these huge changes big gains a few times long periods of stagnation 20 years I mean that's a long time to do nothing

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以你会对自己说：这怎么可能呢？你拥有一个越来越好、越来越好、越来越好的国家，公民的生活——每一代人都比上一代人生活得更好，但你却经历了这些巨大的变化：几次巨大的涨幅，长期的停滞。20年，我的意思是，20年什么动静都没有，那可是很长的一段时间。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: the answer is that investors behave in very human ways which is they get very excited during bull markets and they look in the rearview mirror and they say I made money last year I'm going to make more money this year so this time I'll borrow you know or or the neighbor says you know I wasn't in last year when that neighbor was Dumber than I have made a lot of money so I'm going to go in this year

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 答案是，投资者的行为非常符合人性，那就是他们在牛市期间会变得非常兴奋。他们看着“后视镜（rearview mirror）”说：“我去年赚到钱了，我今年还要赚更多的钱，所以这次我要借钱（加杠杆）。” 你知道，或者——或者邻居会说：“你知道，去年我没参与，而那个比我笨的邻居却赚了一大笔钱，所以我今年也要冲进去。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so they're always looking in the rearview mirror and when they look in the rearview mirror and they see a lot of money having been made in the last few years they plow in and they just push and push and push on prices and when they look in the rview mirror and they see no money having been made they just say this is a lousy place to be so they don't care what's going on in the underlying business

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以他们总是看着后视镜。当他们看着后视镜，看到过去几年里有人赚了一大笔钱时，他们就一头扎进去，然后不停地、不停地、不停地推高价格。而当他们看着后视镜，看到没人赚到钱时，他们只会说：“这是个烂地方。” 所以他们根本不在乎底层企业的经营情况到底如何。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and it's it's astounding but that's that makes for huge opportunity just huge opportunity I mean I lived through roughly half in an investing sense about half that period and I've had that long period of stagnation from 48 uh I mean from 65 uh to 82 17 years

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 这——这令人震惊。但这恰恰创造了巨大的机会，巨大的机会！我的意思是，在投资意义上，我大约经历了那段时期的一半时间，我经历了从48年——嗯，我是说从65年，嗯，到82年那长达17年的漫长停滞期。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I wrote an article for Forbes in 1979 I just said how can this be Pension funds in the in 1970 put 10 and some per of their new money in stock because they were wild about stocks then they got a lot cheaper and they put a record low in 9% of their net new money in in 1978 when stocks were way cheaper

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我在1979年为《福布斯》（Forbes）写了一篇文章，我当时就说，怎么会这样？养老基金在1970年把他们百分之十几的新增资金投入股市，因为那时他们对股票陷入狂热；然后股票变得便宜得多了，而在1978年股票便宜得多的时候，他们投入的新增净资金却创下了9%的历史新低。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: people behave very peculiarly in in in terms of the reactions because they they're human beings and they they get excited when others get excited they get greedy when others get greedy they get fearful when others get fearful and they'll continue to do so

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 人们在反应方面表现得非常古怪，因为他们——他们是人。当别人兴奋时，他们也会兴奋；当别人贪婪时，他们也会贪婪；当别人恐惧时，他们也会恐惧，而且他们还会继续这么做。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and you will you know you will see things you won't believe in your lifetime and securities markets and the country will do very well over time but you will see these huge waves and and uh if you can stay objective throughout that if you can detach yourself tempor mentally from the crowd you get very rich and you won't have to be be very bright

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 并且你会，你知道，你会在你的有生之年，在证券市场上看到你无法相信的事情。这个国家随着时间的推移会发展得非常好，但你会看到这些巨大的波澜。并且，嗯，如果你能在这一切之中保持客观，如果你能在心智情绪上（temperamentally）将自己从人群中抽离出来，你就会变得非常富有，而且你不需要非常聪明。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean it I'm sure you are but but you want you know it just it doesn't take brains it takes temperament it takes the ability to sit there and look at something

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我是认真的。我确信你很聪明，但是你要——你知道，这只是不需要靠高智商，它需要的是性情（temperament），它需要你能坐在那里并审视某事的能力。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: when I started out in 1950 I would go through and find things at two times earnings and they were perfectly decent businesses and people wanted jobs at those companies and everybody knew they were going to be around and they wouldn't buy them at two times earnings and that's when interest rates were 2 and a half%

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 当我在1950年起步时，我会去翻阅资料，找到两倍市盈率的东西。它们是完美得体的企业，人们想去那些公司工作，每个人都知道它们会一直存在下去，但他们就是不愿以两倍的市盈率买入它们。而那时的利率是2.5%。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you know I went to the I started selling securities when I was 21 and a Kansas City Life Insurance Company happened to be fairly prominent company in Omaha and the policies they sold you if you were buying life insurance from them had a buildin Assumption of 2% interest

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 你知道，我去了——我21岁开始卖证券时，堪萨斯城人寿保险公司（Kansas City Life Insurance Company）碰巧在奥马哈是家相当出名的公司。如果你从他们那里买人寿保险，他们卖给你的保单内置了一个2%利率的假设。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: the stock of Kansas City life was selling at less than three times earnings you were getting 35% if you bought the stock no question about the soundness of the company

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而堪萨斯城人寿的股票售价不到其收益的三倍。如果你买了那只股票，你就能获得35%的收益率。这公司的稳健性毋庸置疑。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I went to the local agent I I fig ought be able to sell him a few shares of stock I mean the guy understand I he's got his whole life invested in this company I went to local agent who' been with him for 20 years as his name was moose I said Mr moose I said you know you're selling these policies with 2% you may even have a few on members of your own family

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我去找当地的代理人，我——我觉得我应该能卖给他几股股票。我的意思是，这家伙了解——我——他的毕生心血都投在这家公司了。我去找那个在那里工作了20年的当地代理人，他名叫穆斯（Moose）。我说：“穆斯先生，”我说，“你知道，你卖的这些保单利率只有2%，你甚至可能还在自己家人身上买了几份。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and you can buy into this company whose paycheck you depend on every month and you and whose future you your your beneficiaries of these Life policies depend on and who you're selling them you know a 2% investment on and you can get 35% on your money and you know stocks aren't any good and and I couldn't I couldn't sell the you know I was a lousy salesman I mean well you have to start with that

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: “而现在你可以买入这家你每个月靠它发薪水的公司，你和你这些寿险保单的受益人的未来都依赖于它。你卖给别人的是一项2%收益的投资，而你自己的钱投进去能获得35%的收益。” 然后你知道，“股票都不是好东西”，而且——而且我卖不出去——你知道，我是个糟糕的推销员，我的意思是，嗯，你只能从头学起。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but but uh it it just blew me away it blew me away I thought sometimes I used to wonder if I was nuts you know but those things the same thing happened I mean in 1964 the dowal closed at 8 864 at the end of 1981 17 years later later it closed at 865 it moved one point in 17 years

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但是——但是，嗯，这简直让我惊掉下巴，让我惊掉下巴。我想，有时我过去常常怀疑自己是不是疯了，你知道。但是那些事情，同样的事情发生了。我的意思是，在1964年，道指收盘于864点。在1981年底，17年后，它收盘于865点。17年里它只涨了1点！

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: now that's not a big move and that you you can't believe the how how discouraged people were by that by during that period but you know people were living better uh so things can go on a long time that don't make sense and but they do come to an end

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，这可不是什么大动作。而且你——你简直无法相信在那段时期人们因此变得多么灰心丧气。但是你知道，人们的生活确实变得更好了。嗯——所以，毫无道理的事情可能会持续很长一段时间，但它们终会结束。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean the internet thing I mean you had these companies selling for many billions of dollars that had no really practically no prospects of making any money that that's a that's a bubble but herbstein one time said anything that can't go on for forever will end

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的意思是关于互联网泡沫。我的意思是，你看到这些公司售价高达数十亿美元，但它们实际上完全没有任何赚钱的前景。那是——那是一个泡沫。但是赫布·斯坦（Herb Stein）曾经说过：“任何不能永远持续下去的事情，终将结束。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: now that seems pretty but think about that and uh particularly think about it next time you're inclined to do something just cuz the Stock's gone up a whole lot you know and your neighbors made money or something it uh you've got to be you just have to sit and think objectively and think about would I buy this whole business

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 这句话现在听起来挺好听的。但想一想这句话。而且，嗯，特别是下次当你仅仅因为股票大涨、你知道，或者你的邻居赚了钱或怎样，你就倾向于去做某事时，好好想想这句话。你必须——你只需坐下来，客观地思考，想一想：我愿意买下这整个企业吗？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: it's an internet company's got 100 million shares out and selling 100 that's 10 billion do is it worth1 billion if it's worth 1010 billion it's got to be able to give you you know 7 or 800 million next year and if it doesn't give you 7 or 800 million next year it has to give you maybe 10% more than that the year after and continue to be there aren't a lot of businesses that can do that

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 这是一家互联网公司，发行了1亿股，每股卖100美元，那就是100亿美元。它值100亿美元吗？如果它值100亿——100亿美元，它必须能够，你知道的，明年给你7亿或8亿美元的回报。如果它明年给不了你7、8亿美元，那后年它就得给你比这多大约10%的回报，并且持续下去。没有多少企业能做到这一点。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and people just go crazy and of course it's fun I mean it's you know it's like that sign they they put in brokerage offices it says avoid hangovers stay drunk you know I mean it's it's just so much fun to keep playing but uh you got to you got to do sensible things to get to get good results yeah yeah next well we got three people standing there so let's let's do the three that are standing there okay

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而人们简直疯了。当然，这很有趣。我的意思是，这——你知道，这就像他们在券商营业部挂的那个牌子，上面写着：“避免宿醉的方法就是保持醉酒（avoid hangovers stay drunk）”。你知道，我的意思是，一直玩下去确实太好玩了。但是，嗯，你必须——你必须做理智的事情，才能——才能得到好的结果。是的，是的。下一个问题。嗯，我们有三个人站在那里，所以让我们——让我们回答站着的那三个人的问题，好的。

章节 10：宏观经济把控——对美联储与格林斯潘的看法

📝 本节摘要：

本节中，面对关于美联储近期举措的提问，巴菲特对时任美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘给予了高度评价，但也犀利地指出了人们对美联储权力的迷信。他生动地比喻道：美联储的“刹车”远比“油门”好用。当美联储猛踩刹车（如保罗·沃尔克在1980年代遏制通胀）时，确实能让经济停滞；但当美联储狂踩油门（如日本面临零利率困境）时，却往往无法刺激经济。此外，他还探讨了美国贸易逆差与美元资产分配的本质逻辑，指出宏观经济学绝非一成不变的物理公式，并引用马克·吐温的名言“历史不会重演，但会押韵”，提醒投资者不要僵化地套用经典经济学理论或历史经验来预测未来。

[原文] [Student]: good morning sir hi hi I was wondering um what your opinion is of the Federal Reserve and their actions taken recently do you feel they've done enough to boost the economy

[译文] [学生]: 早上好，先生。嗨，嗨，我想知道，嗯，您对美联储（Federal Reserve）以及他们最近采取的行动有什么看法？您觉得他们为了提振经济做得足够了吗？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: yeah well I'm a I'm a fan of Allen greenspans over time I've known him for a long long time we were on a board together at cap cities and Allen is a very very smart guy he is motivated in my opinion entirely by what is good for the United States people of the United States and so you've got a you've got you couldn't have a better person in there

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 是的，嗯，一直以来我都是艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）的粉丝。我认识他很长很长时间了，我们曾一起在凯普城市公司（Cap Cities）的董事会共事过。艾伦是一个非常非常聪明的人。在我看来，他的动机完全是出于对美国、对美国人民的利益考量。所以你拥有了一位——你拥有了一位——你不可能找到比他更好的人选坐在那个位置上。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and the problem he may have is that that because his tenure in office has been associated with this incredible bull market that that even though he wouldn't have claimed credit for it that people might associate it because of the importance of the FED generally they might associate with him so they may if things don't work out so well they may blame him as well but I think his policy has generally been very good

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而他可能面临的问题在于，因为他的任期一直与这场令人难以置信的牛市联系在一起，所以即使他自己不会将此归功于己，但考虑到美联储通常的重要性，人们可能会把（牛市）与他联系起来。因此，如果事情进展得不太顺利，他们可能也会责怪他。但我认为，他的政策总体上是非常好的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: you have to understand one thing about the FED is that it's not as powerful as the Mystique would make it it's brake is better than its gas pedal when the FED wants to put on the brakes we go through the windshield I mean you know the economy just yeah H they can put on the brakes

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 关于美联储，你必须明白一件事，那就是它并没有那种神秘感（Mystique）所渲染的那么强大。它的“刹车（brake）”比它的“油门踏板（gas pedal）”好用得多。当美联储想要踩下刹车时，我们会直接飞出挡风玻璃（go through the windshield）。我的意思是，你知道的，经济就会——是的，嗯，他们确实能踩下刹车。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: Paul vuler did it he broke inflation by doing it but I mean when he put on the brakes in that period around 1980 I mean people hated he's crucified for but it was the right thing to do and he could do it he did it all by himself and he's he and and it was the only way because of the momentum that inflation was generating it was the only thing that it was what was needed then enormously unpopular

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）就这么做过，他通过这种方式击垮了通胀。但我的意思是，在1980年左右的那段时期，当他踩下刹车时，人们都恨透了他，他简直被钉在了十字架上。但那是正确的事情，而且他能做到，他完全凭一己之力做到了。他——他——而且那是唯一的方法，因为通胀当时正在产生的势头，那是唯一能做的事，那是当时真正需要的，尽管极其不得人心。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: it's much harder for a green span to put on the brakes because nobody wants him to put on the brakes plus he's so visible but he's put him on sort of gradually uh but stepping on the gas pedal he does not necessarily get the same result it may help but there are thousand other variables operating

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 对格林斯潘来说，踩刹车要困难得多，因为没有人希望他踩刹车，加上他是如此地备受瞩目，但他还是在逐步地踩下刹车。嗯——但是踩下油门踏板，他却不一定能得到相同强度的结果。这可能会有帮助，但还有成千上万个其他的变量在起作用。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and as you see in Japan you know you can get down to zero interest rates and you can't stimulate anything so it isn't like the Japanese haven't read the same books we've read about economics I mean they've read canes and they've read the whole thing so we're not smarter than they are we don't have any secrets they don't have but they don't know how to get their economy going

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 正如你在日本看到的那样，你知道的，你可以把利率降到零（zero interest rates），但你什么也刺激不起来。所以这并不是说日本人没有读过我们读过的那些经济学著作，我的意思是，他们读过凯恩斯（Keynes），他们通读了所有的理论。所以我们并不比他们聪明，我们也没有什么他们不知道的秘密，但他们就是不知道该如何让他们的经济重新运转起来。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and uh you know there J GDP there has been gone no place you know in The Last 5 Years and there's still problems around so easy money doesn't solve everything but green span could very well get blamed for the fact that that he hasn't solved everything and it's just not in his power to solve it

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而且，嗯，你知道，日本的——日本的GDP在过去的五年里一直在原地踏步，问题依然环伺。所以，宽松的货币政策（easy money）并不能解决一切问题，但格林斯潘很可能会因为他没有解决一切问题而受到指责，而实际上解决这些问题根本不在他的权力范围之内。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: uh he can help in various ways and I but I I don't think you could have anybody bu better and I think he's done the right thing to this point but the right thing may not be quite as as effective as as people may hope that it would be

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 嗯，他可以在各种方面提供帮助。而且我——但是我——我认为你找不到比他更好的人选了。并且我认为到目前为止他做的都是正确的，但正确的事情可能并不像人们所希望的那样有效。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and economics is always you always want to ask and then what you'll read in the paper well what happens if the Japanese start selling government our government bonds or what happened if they dump the dollar

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而且经济学总是——你总是要问，“然后呢？”你会在报纸上读到，“如果日本人开始抛售政府——我们的政府债券，或者如果他们抛售美元，会发生什么？”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: they can't dump the dollar there's no way to dump dollars you can you can at least dollar assets because if the Japanese want to sell government our government bonds they sell them to us you know they get a time deposit or a demand deposited City or they still own a dollar asset if they sell them to the French they get they may get some assets from the French but now the French have it

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 他们无法抛售美元。没有办法抛售美元，你至少——你可以（转换）美元资产。因为如果日本人想卖政府——我们的政府债券，他们是卖给我们，你知道，他们会得到一笔定期存款，或者花旗银行（Citi）的一笔活期存款，不管怎样他们依然持有一项美元资产。如果他们把债券卖给法国人，他们可能会从法国人那里得到一些资产，但现在这些美元资产到了法国人手里。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but I mean the only way you can reduce foreign investment in the United States is to change it around so they're consuming more than from us more than we're consuming from them

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但我的意思是，你要减少外国在美国投资的唯一方法，就是扭转这种局面，让他们从我们这里消费的东西，超过我们从他们那里消费的东西。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean when when when we buy a television set from Japan if we buy more television sets from them than they buy equivalent consumables from us the exchange what balances things is we give them some investment type asset whether it's cash or US Government Bond or our stocks or our Mo Movies Studios or our real estate or different things

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的意思是，当——当——当我们从日本买一台电视机时，如果我们从他们那里买的电视机，比他们从我们这里买的同等消费品要多，这个交换——用来平衡账目的东西，就是我们给了他们一些投资型资产。无论是现金、美国政府债券、我们的股票、我们的电影制片厂、我们的房地产还是其他什么东西。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and the only way that reverses is when we start running a trade surplus which we're miles away from so logically you know if you read classic economics that uh you would believe that our currency would have been weak along or weaker uh over the recent years and that it would be weak now

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而唯一能让这种情况逆转的，是当我们开始实现贸易顺差（trade surplus）的时候，而我们离这一目标还差了十万八千里。所以从逻辑上讲，你知道，如果你读过经典的经济学理论，嗯，你会相信我们的货币在最近几年早就应该一直疲软，或者变得更疲软，而且现在也应该是疲软的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but there are other things operating and that's one of the problems about economics is there's never just one variable there's usually hundreds of variables and they operate with different impact at different times I mean it's a it's it's not like a physics formula

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但还有其他因素在起作用。这就是经济学的问题之一：从来都不只有一个变量，通常有几百个变量，而且它们在不同时期会产生不同的影响。我的意思是，这——它——它不像是一个物理公式。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: I mean well I guess it would be if you got in the Heisenberg Principle or something like that but but the the formula has a lot of the same variables year after year but the relative importance of those variables and how they interact with each other is is never exactly the same and that's what we find out the Japanese find out everybody finds out

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我的意思是，好吧，我想如果加入了海森堡测不准原理（Heisenberg Principle）或者类似的东西，它可能会像物理公式。但是——但是这个公式年复一年都包含很多相同的变量，但这些变量的相对重要性以及它们之间如何相互作用，永远不会完全一样。而这正是我们所发现的，是日本人所发现的，也是每个人都发现的。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and and foreign currency or the Curren the value of our dollar and currency rates are defying what you would expect based on history but as somebody said if history were a perfect guide you know the fors 400 would all be Librarians you know they just go look it up in the books and they'd always know all the answers

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 而且——而且外汇，或者说货币——我们美元的价值和汇率，正在打破你基于历史规律所做出的预期。但正如有人所说：“如果历史是一个完美的指南针，你知道，那《福布斯》400富豪榜（Forbes 400）上全都会是图书管理员了。” 你知道，他们只要去书里翻一翻，就总是能知道所有的答案。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but uh it history doesn't repeat itself as Mark Twain said history doesn't repeat itself but it Rhymes I mean things come back but they don't quite come back in the same form and we'll understand all this perfectly in a few more years why the dollars behave the way it has but I I think it would be useful net for the us if the dollar were less strong

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但是，嗯，它——历史不会重演。正如马克·吐温（Mark Twain）所说：“历史不会重演，但会押韵（history doesn't repeat itself but it Rhymes）。”我的意思是，事情会卷土重来，但它们不会以完全相同的形式重现。再过几年，我们就会完全明白这一切，明白美元为什么会表现出现在的这种走势。但我——我认为，如果美元稍微走弱一点，净算下来（net）对美国来说是有好处的。

章节 11：小企业的生存之道——内布拉斯加家具卖场的奇迹

📝 本节摘要：

本节迎来了整个讲座最鼓舞人心的结尾，聚焦于小企业如何在巨头垄断的阴影下生存与逆袭。面对学生关于规模效应的担忧，巴菲特指出，虽然在某些领域规模是优势，但在更多领域，小企业凭借敏捷性和对客户的极致专注能够击败大公司。他以沃尔玛击败西尔斯百货为例，证明了热情与正确做事方式的力量。更令人震撼的是，他详细讲述了内布拉斯加家具卖场（Nebraska Furniture Mart）创始人罗斯·布鲁姆金（B夫人）白手起家的传奇故事。一个不识字、不会说英语、仅靠500美元起家的俄罗斯移民，凭借绝不欺客的底线和惊人的商业直觉，打败了所有大城市的百货巨头。巴菲特用这个故事证明：极致的客户关怀和企业家的内在驱动力，是通用汽车等任何大企业都无法复制或制度化的终极护城河。

[原文] [Student]: yes Mr Buffett thanks for taking my question um my question pertains to small business and my family's been in uh the truckload sector of transportation for about 50 years and as you talked about the airline industry and all the mergers and Acquisitions and things going on and a lot of the smaller players being uh tossed out of the market uh what do you see for people that um like in this room for students that want to start a small business and maybe they want to start in a business that is a somewhat of a commodity type business but as businesses the large corporations get larger and their efficiencies increas how can a small business compete these people

[译文] [学生]: 是的，巴菲特先生，感谢您回答我的问题。嗯，我的问题与小企业有关，我的家族在，嗯，整车运输行业已经做了大约50年。正如您谈到航空业以及正在发生的所有并购事件，许多较小的参与者被，嗯，被踢出了市场。嗯，对于那些，嗯，比如在这个房间里想要创办小企业的学生们，也许他们想在一个有点类似于大宗商品类型的行业里创业，但随着企业——大公司变得越来越大，他们的效率不断提高，一家小企业该如何与这些人竞争呢？

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: yeah the the in many areas small businesses have an advantage you know and other businesses scale has a huge advantage and I mean you don't want to be a a tiny carbon steel producer on the other hand when mini Mills came along and learned how to use scrap more effectively than than the the older methods of making steel they actually had an advantage so scale is a huge advantage in some businesses it's you know the largest Airlines haven't won Southwest Airlines has won starting with you know just a few planes flying down there between Houston and Dallas and and they have become bigger but their ambition hasn't been to be the biggest and you know they they probably buy their fuel just as cheap as United and they probably bought it you know when they're a lot smaller

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 是的，在很多领域小企业是有优势的，你知道的。而在其他一些行业，规模具有巨大的优势，我的意思是，你肯定不想成为一家微型碳钢生产商。但另一方面，当微型钢厂（mini Mills）出现时，他们学会了比那些老式炼钢方法更有效地使用废钢，他们实际上就拥有了优势。所以，规模在某些行业确实是巨大优势。你看，你知道的，最大的航空公司并没有赢，西南航空（Southwest Airlines）赢了。他们开始时，你知道的，只有几架飞机在休斯顿和达拉斯之间飞来飞去，他们现在变得更大了，但他们的野心从来不是成为最大的一家。而且你知道，他们买燃料可能和美联航（United）一样便宜，甚至在他们小得多的时候，可能买得也是那么便宜。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: Walmart is a classic example I mean who would have thought 25 years ago 30 years ago I mean here was Sears with a 100 story plus building in Chicago had access to money far cheaper than Sam Walton I mean Sam Walton's credit was not as good as Sears every supplier wanted to do business with Sears nobody had ever heard of Sam every real estate developer who was developing a new shopping center went first to Sears you know and Sam got a short end so here's the guy starting in Bentonville Arkansas and he kills them over time just playing kills them and disadvantage in buying disadvantage in borrowing disadvantage in real estate Advantage Sam Walton and his ability to inspire in the end hundreds of thousands of people to be enthusiastic about going to work and doing all the doing the right things over time

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 沃尔玛（Walmart）就是一个经典的例子。我的意思是，25年前、30年前谁能想到呢？我的意思是，那可是西尔斯百货（Sears），在芝加哥有一栋100多层的大楼，他们获取资金的成本比山姆·沃尔顿（Sam Walton）便宜得多。我的意思是，山姆·沃尔顿的信用评级远不如西尔斯。每一个供应商都想和西尔斯做生意，根本没听说过山姆。每一个开发新购物中心的房地产开发商首先找的都是西尔斯，你知道的，山姆只能捡人家挑剩的。所以，就是这个在阿肯色州本顿维尔（Bentonville Arkansas）起家的家伙，随着时间的推移，他干掉了他们，就是彻头彻尾地干掉了他们。在采购上处于劣势，在借款上处于劣势，在房地产上处于劣势；但优势在于山姆·沃尔顿，以及他最终激励数十万人保持热情去工作、并且随着时间的推移一直坚持做正确事情的能力。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: so I would be just as optimistic about small business generally now there's certain areas uh where scale just as is just plain important but but I see no disadvantage we intentionally at birkshire we have 112,000 employes more in Georgia than in any other state of the union incidentally uh uh we employ a lot up near Dalton and we employ a lot of people in making it Geico and we intentionally with our 112,000 we probably have I don't know how many business units but lots and we only have 13.8 people at headquarters I'm not the point8 in said that I resent it when people think that I'm a full

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以我总体上对小企业同样感到乐观。现在某些领域，嗯，规模确实极其重要，但是我——但我没有看到小企业有什么劣势。我们在伯克希尔是刻意这么做的，我们有11.2万名员工。顺便说一句，在佐治亚州的员工比美国其他任何州都多，嗯，我们在道尔顿（Dalton）附近雇佣了很多人，我们在盖可保险（Geico）也雇佣了很多人。尽管我们有11.2万名员工，我们可能拥有——我不知道多少个业务部门，反正有很多，但我们刻意保持总部只有13.8个人。我可不是那个“0.8”，实际上我很反感人们认为我是个全职工作的人。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but we have one woman that works four days a week and that's all we have at headquarters 112,000 people 105 billion of market cap but we intentionally keep our units small we think we we want them to have the nimbleness the responsiveness to the customer particularly that will turn them you know that essentially will more than offset anything that the scale of having maybe a little more purchasing power or something will develop

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我们有一位女士每周工作四天，这就是我们总部所有的人了。11.2万人，1050亿美元的市值。但我们刻意保持业务单元的“小”。我们认为，我们希望他们拥有敏捷性，特别是对客户的响应能力。这会让他们，你知道的，这在本质上将足以抵消因为规模而产生的诸如可能多一点采购力等任何其他优势。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: we own a home furnishing we have Furniture Home Furnishing business in Utah run by a fellow named Bill child he was featured in Fortune about one issue ago that the the cover story was God and business it was and it was Bill was the number one illustration Bill took that business from his father-in-law when it was doing $250,000 a year and then now was over half the business in Utah in his field about close to 400 million he built it by thinking about the customer and the truth he was competing with Sears he was competing uh with Levitz was a huge Furniture retailer in the past he was competing with everybody but all he thought about from the moment he got up in the morning was how do I take care of my customer and that wins

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我们拥有一家家居用品——我们在犹他州有一家家具家居企业，由一个叫比尔·查尔德（Bill Child）的伙计经营。他大约在上一期《财富》（Fortune）杂志上被报道过，那一期的封面故事是“上帝与商业”，而比尔就是第一号插图人物。比尔从他岳父那里接手那笔生意时，它每年的营业额只有25万美元。而现在，他占据了犹他州该领域一半以上的业务，将近4亿美元。他是靠“为客户着想”建立起这一切的。事实是，他在和西尔斯竞争，他在和，嗯，莱维茨（Levitz）——过去一家巨大的家具零售商竞争，他在和所有人竞争。但他从每天早上起床那一刻起，脑子里想的全都是：“我该如何照顾好我的客户？”这就赢了。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: we have a business in Omaha some of you may have heard of it's the largest home furnishing store in the world in alaha which only has a smsa of 650,000 people it's on 72 Acres it's the $325 million in one location which happens to be $500 for every man woman and child in the smsa but it draws from Beyond that that business comes about or has resulted from an investment of $500 in 1937 by a woman who walked out of Russia in 1921 she land she walked out got on a peanut boat landed in Seattle with a tag around her neck she couldn't speak one word of English

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 我们在奥马哈（Omaha）有一家企业，你们中有些人可能听说过，那是世界上最大的家居用品店。在只有65万常住人口（标准大都会统计区）的奥马哈，它占地72英亩，在仅仅这一个地点就创造了3.25亿美元的营业额。这相当于那个区域里的每一个男人、女人和孩子都在这花出了500美元。但它的客源远不止于此。那家企业的诞生，或者说它的成果，源于1937年一笔500美元的投资。投资人是一位在1921年走出俄罗斯的女性。她——她走出来，上了一艘运花生的货船，在西雅图登陆，脖子上挂着一个标签，她连一个英语单词都不会说。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: the American Red Cross looked at the tag it said Fort Dodge Iowa they got her at Fort Dodge Iowa she couldn't pick up the language she was there two years she said she felt like a dummy so she came to Alo because there were other Russian Jews there and she'd at least have somebody to talk to her little girl started school Francis Francis would come home at night and teach her mother the words she learned in school that day that's how this woman Rose blump can learn the English language but from her from her daughter from kindergarten on teaching her the words she brought seven siblings over from Russia one at a time 50 bucks every time she saved 50 bucks she sold used clothing and other works she got her seven siblings over her mother and father and by 1937 16 years after she got here she saved $500

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 美国红十字会看了那个标签，上面写着“爱荷华州道奇堡（Fort Dodge Iowa）”。他们把她送到了爱荷华州道奇堡。她学不会这门语言，在那里待了两年，她说她觉得自己像个哑巴（傻子）。所以她来到了奥马哈，因为那里有其他的俄罗斯犹太人，她至少能找到人说话。她的小女儿弗朗西斯（Francis）开始上学了，弗朗西斯晚上回家，教她母亲当天在学校学到的单词。这就是这位名叫罗斯·布鲁姆金（Rose Blumkin，即B夫人）的女人学习英语的方式，跟着她——跟着她从幼儿园起步的女儿教她的单词学。她把七个兄弟姐妹从俄罗斯接了过来，一次接一个。每存下50美元——每次攒够50美元，她卖旧衣服以及干其他杂活，她把她的七个兄弟姐妹、母亲和父亲都接了过来。到了1937年，也就是她到这里16年后，她存下了500美元。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: she got on a train went to Chicago to the American Furniture Mart which was this huge impressive thing she had this she was smart as hell but she thought like a peasant in a way and she saw this building and she decided to name her company the Nebraska Furniture she went and bought $500 worth of she bought about $22,000 worth of merchandise all the way back to Omaha she worried because she thought I owe $1,500 and she only had a $500 Equity so she got to Omaha she took the bed the sofa the refrigerator out of her own home to sell fast so she could get the money so she could pay on time

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 她上了一辆火车去了芝加哥的美国家具城（American Furniture Mart），那是个极其庞大、令人震撼的地方。她有这种——她聪明极了，但在某种程度上她也有农民般的朴素思维。她看到了那栋大楼，于是决定将自己的公司命名为“内布拉斯加家具（Nebraska Furniture）”。她去买了500美元的——她大约买了价值2000美元的商品。在回奥马哈的一路上，她非常担心，因为她想：“我欠了1500美元，而我只有500美元的本钱。” 所以她一到奥马哈，就把自己家里的床、沙发、冰箱搬出来快速卖掉，这样她就能筹到钱，好按时还款。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: she took that business and build it from that start no one would sell to her she went into court four times because they tried to the carpet manufacturers tried to keep her from selling at a discount and she went into court and told the judge cuz she figured out ways to buy this stuff in various nefarious ways from other had other people buy it for and she said look it I pay $3 a yard for this carpet brand I sells it for $6.98 she says I sell it for 3.98 just tell me judge how much you want me to rob people she defended herself papers wrote it up the judge bought carpet from her the next day I mean it was it was marvelous brandise isn't selling anymore they were the huge department store in she put everybody out of business

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 她接手了那笔生意，并从那个起点开始把它做大。没有人愿意把货卖给她，她四次被告上法庭，因为他们试图——地毯制造商试图阻止她打折销售。她走上法庭告诉法官——因为她想出了通过其他各种“恶劣”的方式买到这些东西的办法，让别人替她买。她说：“看这里，这个品牌的地毯我进价是每码3美元。别人卖6.98美元，”她说，“我卖3.98美元。法官，您直接告诉我，您想让我去抢劫老百姓多少钱？” 她为自己辩护，报纸对此进行了大肆报道，结果法官第二天就找她买了地毯！我的意思是，这——这太不可思议了。布兰代斯百货（Brandeis）再也卖不出东西了，他们曾经是当地巨大的百货公司。她把所有人挤出了生意场。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and the punchline she worked till she was 103 she sold me the business when she was 89 and she didn't have she didn't have an audit I went out this year at one afternoon I took a check out with me and because I knew she wanted to do something and I said Mrs B here's the money I said I don't need an audit just tell me whether you owe any money she said I've never owed any money since I owed those guys back in 1937 and she said it's all free and clear

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 故事的高潮是，她一直工作到103岁。她在89岁时把生意卖给了我。而她没有——她没有做过任何审计。某天下午我出去了，我带了一张支票，因为我知道她想做些什么。我说：“B夫人（Mrs. B），这是钱。”我说，“我不需要审计，你只要告诉我你有没有欠别人钱就行了。” 她说：“自从我在1937年欠了那些家伙钱之后，我再也没有欠过任何钱。” 她说，“一切干干净净（free and clear）。”

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: she'd never seen a balance sheet she didn't know what counting terms meant but she understood the nature of the business and I told her I said I'd rather have I'd rather have your word you know than an audit from every one of the big six or big eight or whatever they were number at the time of the top auditing firms and and she worked till she was 103 she died at 104 she had three siblings at her funeral I mean those are some jeans her son works there now he's 82 or three and the three sisters are all alive

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 她从未见过资产负债表，她不懂任何会计术语是什么意思，但她理解生意的本质。我告诉她，我说：“我宁愿要——我宁愿要你的承诺，你知道，也不要每一家‘六大’或‘八大’（审计公司）——或者那时候排名前列的那些顶级审计公司的审计报告。” 并且，她一直工作到103岁，104岁时去世。她的葬礼上来了她的三个兄弟姐妹，我的意思是，这基因可真不一般。她的儿子现在还在那里工作，他已经82岁或83岁了，并且三个姐妹都还健在。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: but the punchline is she couldn't read or right this woman could not read or right if you told her this room was 68 ft by 43 she would tell you how many square yards it was like that she never went to school a day in her life she would tell you how how much that was at 5.98 a yards she'd add the tax she'd knock off something cuz she liked your looks and that would be it and that that's you know that is the that you can't beat that you know and and you can't replicate that at General Motors you can't can't institutionalize that the the person who brings that kind of drive to a business and does it day after day and thinks about their customer uh and that's all she did can't and well she raised four kids in the process too but you can't it it can't miss

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 但故事真正的高潮是，她不识字，也不会写字。这个女人不识字也不会写字！如果你告诉她这个房间是68英尺乘43英尺，她会立刻告诉你那是多少平方码，就是这么快。她这辈子没上过一天学。她会告诉你每码5.98美元总共是多少钱，她会加上税，然后因为看你顺眼再给你打个折，这笔买卖就成了。那就是——那就是，你知道，那是你无法击败的东西。你知道，并且——并且你在通用汽车（General Motors）也无法复制这个，你不可能——不可能将这个制度化。一个人带着那样强大的内驱力投入到一项事业中，日复一日地做着，时刻为他们的客户着想。嗯，这就是她所做的一切。而且，嗯，她在这个过程中还养育了四个孩子。你无法阻挡它——它——它绝不会失败。

[原文] [Warren Buffett]: and no you don't have to worry if you're an entrepreneur in most Fields there's some Fields where you can't do it because there are scale aspects to it but in most Fields you know you'll you'll kill people Bob Shaw did that was with Shaw nobody ever heard of Shaw in carpet 30 years ago and he's got 40% of the carpet business in the country uh so don't I it's it's a great field of opportunity out there and I uh uh I don't know about Trucking specifically but I wish you the best on it and you're you won't be at a disadvantage in many fields if if you're small and you'll actually have an advantage thank you okay oh

[译文] [沃伦·巴菲特]: 所以不，如果你是一个企业家，在大多数领域你都不必担心。有些领域你没法做，因为存在规模因素。但在大多数领域，你知道的，你会——你会秒杀那些大公司。鲍勃·肖（Bob Shaw）做到了，那就是肖氏地毯（Shaw）。30年前在地毯行业没人听说过肖氏，而现在他占据了全国40%的地毯业务。嗯——所以，这是一个充满巨大机会的领域，而我，嗯，嗯，我不太了解整车运输的具体情况，但我祝你一切顺利。而且在许多领域如果你是小企业，你并不会处于劣势，你实际上会有优势。谢谢大家。好的，噢。