章节 1：开场白与原则的价值

📝 本节摘要：

演讲者（Ray Dalio）在开场时强调了“原则”的核心价值。他认为掌握原则如同“授人以渔”，能够让人在不同时代和环境下独立应用这些规律。他分享了自己将决策标准系统化写下来的习惯，以此观察事物发展背后的因果关系并获得客观的洞察力。为了让听众不仅了解他的想法，还能理解其背后的运行机制，他将这些原则分为经济原则与投资原则进行深入探讨。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: if you know the principles it's like it's giving it like a giving a man the fish ability to fish rather than to just give the fish

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你掌握了这些原则（principles），这就像是，就像是授人以渔（ability to fish），而不是仅仅授人以鱼。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I can tell you what I think but if these principles are right then you could apply them yourself to whatever time or circumstances exist

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我可以告诉你我是怎么想的，但如果这些原则是正确的，那么你就可以将它们自己应用到任何存在的时代或环境（circumstances）中。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: As Sasha mentioned it's been 25 years that uh that we've been friends and professional colleagues

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 正如萨沙（Sasha）所提到的，嗯，我们成为朋友和专业同行（professional colleagues）已经25年了。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so you know when I look in the room and I see these old friends I'm so happy to be here

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以你知道，当我环顾这个房间，看到这些老朋友时，我很高兴能来到这里。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: He also mentioned that I'm very systematic meaning I got in a habit of every time I would make a decision to write down the criteria I would use to make that decision

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他也提到我非常系统化（systematic），这意味着我养成了一个习惯，每次我做决定时，都会写下我用来做那个决定的标准（criteria）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We're getting a little echo I think

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我想我们听到了一点回音。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And it's not a big room so I don't even even know if I need a mic

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而且这不是一个很大的房间，所以我甚至不知道我是否需要麦克风（mic）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So every time I would make a decision I would write down the criteria I used for making those decisions because cause effect everything happens because of a cause

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以每次我做决定时，我都会写下我用来做这些决定的标准，因为因果关系（cause effect），一切发生的事情都是因为某个原因。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so and the same things happen over and over again

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，同样的事情会一遍又一遍地发生。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so by taking the time to write them down and then seeing how those criteria would have worked over a period of time I could get perspective

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，通过花时间把它们写下来，然后观察这些标准在一段时间内是如何起作用的，我就能获得洞察力（perspective）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so I wrote down those principles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我写下了那些原则。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And as Hasha mentioned I wrote a book called principles which has to do which just was a collection of the life and work principles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 正如哈沙（Hasha）提到的，我写了一本叫做《原则》的书，这仅仅是生活和工作原则的集合。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So the culture that we have is very very important

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我们拥有的文化非常非常重要。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It was really the most important thing in terms of whatever success we've had

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 就我们取得的任何成功而言，它真的是最重要的事情。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: At the same time I wrote down uh the economic and investment principles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 与此同时，我写下了，嗯，经济和投资原则。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So what I thought I would do today is to share with you what I think are my most important economic and investment principles and then look at the world through the perspective of those principles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我今天想做的是，与你们分享我认为最重要的经济和投资原则，然后通过这些原则的视角来看待这个世界。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words rather than just tell you what I think I want to tell you how it works and then we can apply that mechanics

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，与其仅仅告诉你我是怎么想的，我想告诉你它是如何运作的，然后我们可以应用这种机制（mechanics）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You can decide does it work that way uh or not

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你可以决定它是否是那样运作的，嗯，或者不是。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So are these principles uh valuable because if you know the principles it's like it's giving it like a giving man the fish ability to fish rather than to just give the fish

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那么这些原则有价值吗？因为如果你掌握了这些原则，这就像是授人以渔，而不是仅仅授人以鱼。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I can tell you what I think but if these principles are right then you could apply them yourself to whatever time or circumstances exist

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我可以告诉你我是怎么想的，但如果这些原则是正确的，那么你就可以将它们自己应用到任何存在的时代或环境中。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I broke it down in terms of economic principles and investment principles because the markets follow the economy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我把它分为了经济原则和投资原则，因为市场是跟随经济的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So in order to understand economics in all the markets you have to understand in order to understand the markets you have to understand the economy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，为了理解所有市场中的经济学，你必须理解……为了理解市场，你必须理解经济（economy）。

章节 2：经济机器的运行：生产力与债务周期

📝 本节摘要：

演讲者（Ray Dalio）将经济体比作一台永动机，并阐述了驱动其运行的核心要素：生产力、短期债务周期（即商业周期）和长期债务周期。生产力是长期生活水平提高的根本动力；短期债务周期由央行的信贷扩张与收缩（降息与加息）控制，通常持续7至10年。随着短期债务在周期更迭中不断累积，当央行将利率降至零且无法再降时，便只能被迫印钞购买金融资产（量化宽松），这就标志着长期债务周期的末期。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So I want to describe how I think the economy works I think it's like a ve it's a perpetual motion machine and there are four big forces three important equilibriums and two levers

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我想描述一下我认为经济是如何运作的。我认为它就像一台，嗯，它是一台永动机（perpetual motion machine），并且有四股强大的力量（four big forces），三个重要的均衡（three important equilibriums）和两个杠杆（two levers）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you get this down I think this basically everything through my eyes is along those lines

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你能把这个弄明白，我想基本上我眼中的一切都是沿着这些脉络发展的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Over a period of time we raise our living standards because we learn how to do things better

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 在一段时间内，我们提高了生活水平，因为我们学会了如何把事情做得更好。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We become more efficient That's called productivity Output per manh hour

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们变得更有效率。这叫做生产力（productivity），即每工时产出（Output per manh hour）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And that is something that evolves over a period of time

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这是在一段时间内演变的东西。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That is because it evolves It is not something that is a big thing that's we see as a big thing but it's the most important thing over a period of time

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那是因为它在演变。它不是一个我们在日常能看作是重大事件的东西，但它在一段长期时间内却是最重要的事情。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The big things that we see and feel every day are debt cycles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们每天看到和感受到的那些大事，是债务周期（debt cycles）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Now there's a short-term debt cycle and there's a long-term debt cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 现在，有一个短期债务周期（short-term debt cycle），还有一个长期债务周期（long-term debt cycle）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: When I say a short-term debt cycle what I mean is we think of as normally the business cycle right you have a recession you have a weakness in the economy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 当我说短期债务周期时，我的意思是，我们通常认为的商业周期（business cycle），对吧，你会遇到衰退（recession），你会遇到经济疲软。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: When the rate of economic activity is too low then central banks produce credit and credit is buying power

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 当经济活动率太低时，中央银行就会产生信贷（credit），而信贷就是购买力（buying power）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So they produce that credit it makes purchases of goods services and financial assets happen

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以它们产生那种信贷，它促使购买商品、服务和金融资产（financial assets）的行为发生。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so the economy picks up That cycle usually lasts 7 to 10 years

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此经济开始复苏。那个周期通常持续7到10年。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: As the economy picks up the demand rises relative to the capacity

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 随着经济复苏，需求相对于产能（capacity）开始上升。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: As you get later in the cycle the central bank puts the brakes on it They raise interest rates Tighten monetary policy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 当你进入周期的后期，中央银行就会踩下刹车（puts the brakes on it）。他们提高利率（raise interest rates），收紧货币政策（Tighten monetary policy）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: As the there's less slack in the economy the unemployment rate is low They put the brakes on it Interest rates go up Tightness of monetary policy Then you have a recession slow up

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 由于经济中的闲置资源（slack）减少，失业率很低。他们踩下刹车。利率上升。货币政策收紧。然后你就会遇到衰退、放缓。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And that's the cycle right and because credit is buying power by providing it it also produces debt

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这就是那个周期，对吧，而且因为信贷是购买力，通过提供信贷，它也产生了债务（debt）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And debt means the obligation to pay back

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而债务意味着偿还的义务（obligation to pay back）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so by its very nature it's cyclical

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，就其本质而言，它是周期性（cyclical）的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: First comes the stimulation then comes the paying back which means when you produce credit you can spend more than you earn

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 首先是刺激（stimulation），然后是偿还（paying back），这意味着当你产生信贷时，你可以花得比你赚的多。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And when you pay back you have to spend less than you earn

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而当你偿还时，你必须花得比你赚的少。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And that's the nature of the cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这就是周期的本质。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And I think we're all acquainted with that type of cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我想我们都熟悉那种类型的周期。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And with that cycle goes market cycles which we'll talk about

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 伴随那个周期的还有市场周期（market cycles），我们稍后会讨论。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That's what I mean by the short-term debt cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这就是我所说的短期债务周期。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There's also a long-term debt cycle which is the accumulation of all of those debt those shorter term debt cycles because everybody wants things to go up

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 还有一个长期债务周期，它是所有那些债务、那些较短期债务周期的积累（accumulation），因为每个人都希望事物向上发展。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: They want their asset prices the markets to go up They want employment to go up They want everything to go up

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们希望他们的资产价格、市场上涨。他们希望就业率上升。他们希望一切都往上走。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And for that reason they central banks over a period of time stimulate and they do that by normally lowering interest rates until interest rates hit zero

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 正因为这个原因，中央银行在一段时间内进行刺激，他们通常通过降低利率来做到这一点，直到利率降至零（hit zero）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then when interest rates hit zero they can't do that anymore

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后当利率降至零时，他们就不能再那样做了。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then we come to the need to print money and buy financial assets which we call quantitative easing

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后我们就面临着印发货币（print money）和购买金融资产的需求，我们称之为量化宽松（quantitative easing）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And when they can't do that anymore or there are limitations we come to the end of the long-term debt cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 当他们不能再那样做，或者存在限制（limitations）时，我们就来到了长期债务周期的末尾。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So there's a short-term debt cycle a long-term debt cycle and productivity

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这里有短期债务周期、长期债务周期和生产力。

章节 3：政治周期、贫富差距与大国博弈

📝 本节摘要：

演讲者将债务周期与国内外政治紧密联系起来。他指出，2008年与1929-1932年极为相似，都经历了利率归零、央行印钞并购买金融资产的过程，这加剧了财富和收入差距，进而引发了左右翼的民粹主义。同时，当前世界也像20世纪30年代一样，正处于一个崛起大国挑战现有大国的地缘政治周期中。政治因素（例如美国的减税政策）会反过来深刻影响经济和市场周期。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Now related to all that is politics internal politics and external politics

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 现在，与所有这些相关的是政治，内部政治和外部政治（internal politics and external politics）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In that normal cycle they're related

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 在那个正常的周期中，它们是相关的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: As we're going to see in terms of that dynamic the period that we're going through 2008 and 9 there was a debt cycle and interest rates hit zero

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 正如我们将要看到的这种动态，我们经历的2008年和09年那段时期，出现了一个债务周期，并且利率降至零。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And that's very similar to 1929-32 there was a debt crisis and interest rates hit zero

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这与1929年到1932年非常相似，当时出现了债务危机（debt crisis），并且利率降至零。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And in both of those cases there was the printing of money and the buying of financial assets which caused those financial asset prices to go up and more liquidity in the economy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 在这两种情况下，都出现了印钞和购买金融资产的行为，这导致那些金融资产价格上涨，并且经济体中出现了更多流动性（liquidity）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And that particularly benefited those who had financial assets and it contributed to the wealth gap and the income gap as did technology

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这尤其让那些拥有金融资产的人受益，并且它促成了财富差距（wealth gap）和收入差距（income gap），技术发展也起到了同样的作用。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And as a result of that in the 1930s as also happened now politics entered into the picture

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 其结果是，在20世纪30年代，正如现在发生的一样，政治因素介入了进来。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So as we're seeing in the world right now that issue of wealth gap is causing populism populism of the left and populism of the right and that's having an effect on the markets and having an effect on the economy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，正如我们现在在世界上看到的，财富差距问题正在引发民粹主义（populism），左翼的民粹主义和右翼的民粹主义，这对市场产生了影响，也对经济产生了影响。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So we are also seeing a situation very much like the 30s in which we're seeing a rising power challenging an existing power that's a geopolitical cycle when a rising power in the form of China challenging an existing power in the form of the United States and if we look at histories and cycles of those periods there's a cycle uh conflict and peace now normally

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，我们也看到了一个非常像30年代的情况，我们看到一个崛起的大国挑战一个现有的大国，那是一个地缘政治周期（geopolitical cycle），当一个以中国为形式的崛起大国挑战一个以美国为形式的现有大国时，如果我们回顾那些历史和周期，就会发现存在一个周期，嗯，冲突与和平的周期，现在通常来说。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Peace happens after a war because some dominant econ wins the war

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 和平发生在战争之后，因为某个占主导地位的经济体赢得了战争。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Nobody wants to fight the dominant power and you have an extended period of peace until there is then that particular conflict

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 没人想和主导大国交战，所以你会有一段很长的和平时期，直到后来发生那场特定的冲突。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Doesn't I'm not saying we're going to have a military conflict or anything like that although you know that always exists as a possibility

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这并不意味着，我不是说我们将要发生军事冲突或类似的事情，尽管你知道那作为一种可能性总是存在的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So these cycles these things have happened over and over again

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这些周期，这些事情已经一遍又一遍地发生过。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So politics enters into can affect the cycles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以政治的介入能够影响这些周期。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: For example the shift in the United States to be able to create tax cut changes helped the corporate tax and caused stock prices to rise

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 例如，美国能够推行减税（tax cut）政策的转变，帮助了企业税收，并导致股票价格上涨。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay those are the cycles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的，这就是那些周期。

章节 4：经济体系的三大均衡与两大杠杆

📝 本节摘要：

在本章中，Ray Dalio 提出了分析经济机器运行状态的“三大均衡”和“两大杠杆”模型。三大均衡分别是：债务增长必须与收入增长相匹配；经济产能利用率需适中（避免过热或萧条）；股票的预期回报必须通过适当的风险溢价高于债券，而债券回报需高于现金。当这些均衡状态被打破时，央行与政府就会通过货币政策和财政政策这两大杠杆（如同刹车和油门）来进行干预。这种政策调整会改变资本的预期回报率和货币的流动方向，进而像“永动机”一般推动着整个经济周期的循环往复。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Then when I look at what's happening I compare it to three equilibriums

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那么当我观察正在发生的事情时，我将其与三个均衡（three equilibriums）进行比较。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: What are these three equilibriums first that debt growth has to be in line with the income growth that's required to service the debt

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这三个均衡是什么？首先，债务增长必须与偿还债务所需的收入增长保持一致。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If debt growth is faster than the income growth that's going to service the debt we're going to have an adjustment

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果债务增长快于将用来偿还债务的收入增长，我们将面临一次调整（adjustment）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so I'm always doing the proforma What is the ability to service that so that's what I'm watching

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我总是进行预估（proforma）：偿还能力是什么，因此这就是我正在观察的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Second equilibrium is that the rate of economic activity economic capacity utilization is neither too high nor too low

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第二个均衡是经济活动率、经济产能利用率（economic capacity utilization）既不太高也不太低。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: What that means is if you have it pressing up too much over an overheating economy that's going to be cause a tightening of monetary policy and a correction

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这意味着如果你让它过度推高、超过一个过热的经济体（overheating economy），那将会导致货币政策的收紧和一次修正（correction）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And if you have it too low so that the economy is depressed and there's a lot of slack that's going to cause an adjustment to bring it up

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而如果你让它太低，以至于经济变得萧条，并且存在很多闲置资源（slack），那将会引发一次调整来把它拉升。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so I'm always watching where are we relative to that because that's a key driver of these cycles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我一直在观察相对于它我们所处的位置，因为那是这些周期的关键驱动力（key driver）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And the third is that the projected returns of equities are above the projected returns of bonds which are above the projected returns of cash by appropriate risk premiums

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第三个均衡是，股票的预期回报（projected returns）要高于债券的预期回报，而债券的预期回报要通过适当的风险溢价（risk premiums）高于现金的预期回报。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words the capital markets produce the circulation of buying power in the form of this credit coming around

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，资本市场以这种信贷流转的形式产生了购买力的循环（circulation of buying power）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And this relationship of the cash to bond yields to stock yields and asset classes determines how money flows through the economy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 现金、债券收益率（bond yields）、股票收益率与资产类别之间的这种关系，决定了货币如何在经济中流动。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And a normal condition is for reasons I won't digress into to have cash have a lower return than bonds that have to have a lower return from equities having to do with how the system works

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 正常的情况是（原因我就不赘述了），现金的回报率低于债券，而债券的回报率又必须低于股票，这与系统的运作方式有关。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Basically central banks put cash on deposit and people with better ideas have to make a profit to that they use that money to create these other level of economic activity and have have to have higher returns

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 基本上，中央银行吸收现金存款（cash on deposit），而那些有更好点子的人必须创造利润，所以他们利用那笔钱来创造其他层面的经济活动，并且必须获得更高的回报。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And when that's not the case the way they tighten it is that there are two levers

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 当情况并非如此时，他们收紧它的方式是，存在两个杠杆（two levers）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So now there are two levers Monetary policy and fiscal policy right monetary policy then is the means by which the brakes and the gas are put on

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以现在有两个杠杆：货币政策（Monetary policy）和财政政策（fiscal policy），对吧？那么货币政策就是踩刹车和踩油门（brakes and the gas）的手段。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And the brakes and the gas being put on become reflected in each of these other items

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 踩下刹车和踩下油门的动作就会反映在这些其他每个项目上。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So let's say if debt growth is too high relative to income growth and capacity utilization is high and stretched monetary policy will be tightened and that tightening of monetary policy will change the projected return of e of cash relative to bonds and of equities those risk premiums and that will slow the economy down and that will drive those cycles and that's how the economy is operating in these perpetual motion kind of way

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那么假设，如果债务增长相对于收入增长太高，且产能利用率很高且紧绷，货币政策将会被收紧，而那种货币政策的收紧将会改变现金相对于债券以及股票的预期回报（即那些风险溢价），那将会使经济放缓，并驱动这些周期，这就是经济以这些永动机（perpetual motion）般的方式运作的原理。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You could almost picture I literally can picture where you are in those cycles and what is happening and you can anticipate what is going to happen next from that because it's that perpetual motion machine

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你几乎可以想象……我简直能直观地想象出你在那些周期中所处的位置以及正在发生什么，并且你可以由此预测接下来会发生什么，因为那就是那台永动机。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So that's my template in a nutshell and if you keep thinking like where are we now you know you can kind of think where we are Okay

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这就是我简而言之的模板（template），如果你一直在思考诸如“我们现在在哪里”的问题，你知道，你大概就能想清楚我们所处的位置。好的。

章节 5：当前周期的位置与资本主义的黄金时代

📝 本节摘要：

在本章中，Ray Dalio 结合数据图表分析了我们当前所处的经济与市场阶段。他指出目前我们已处于短期债务周期的晚期（第9年），央行正通过加息和缩表来收紧货币政策，而当前的债务规模和央行印钞救市的手段与20世纪30年代高度相似。更关键的是，过去几十年受益于技术发展与全球化，企业利润率翻倍，我们经历了一段“资本主义的黄金时代”；但代价是底层60%民众的实际收入停滞，造成了极端的贫富差距与利润差距。这种不平等的加剧正在引发左右翼的民粹主义和政治极化，导致以往支撑市场的“顺风”（如减税和廉价资金）正在转变为“逆风”，而欧美日等主要央行进一步刺激经济的能力已逼近极限。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So I'm just going to show you some charts to help to convey the picture

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我将向你们展示一些图表，以帮助传达这个画面。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This is real GDP going back to 1900

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这是追溯到1900年的实际GDP。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So this is that line is productivity right and that's a big inevitable force that happens over a period of time

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这条线就是生产力，对吧，那是在一段时间内发生的一股巨大的、不可避免的力量。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Even the biggest economic turbulence you know looks like a bump in that cycle right productivity is a big force

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 即使是最大的经济动荡，你知道，在那个周期中看起来也像是一个颠簸，对吧，生产力是一股巨大的力量。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Betting on productivity is a big force

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 押注生产力是一股巨大的力量。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But what happens is that cycle as you get later in the long-term debt cycle that productivity begins to slow because there needs to be investment and there needs to be other things and when you activity when there's prosperity and so on you get more productivity

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但发生的情况是，在那个周期里，当你进入长期债务周期的后期时，生产力开始放缓，因为需要有投资，还需要有其他东西，并且当你有活动……当出现繁荣等等时，你会获得更多的生产力。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It's a self-reinforcing cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这是一个自我强化的周期（self-reinforcing cycle）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So these charts are just meant to show productivity and how it's changing over a period of time in the developed countries and then in China

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这些图表只是为了展示发达国家的生产力，以及随后中国的生产力，在一段时间内是如何变化的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So just to give you a quick picture here you could see it in varying degrees bend over as they are later into their longer term debt cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以为了在这里给你一个快速的整体印象，你可以看到它在不同程度上向下弯曲，因为它们处于其较长期债务周期的后期。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This United States over the last 10 years versus since 1980 and so in each one of those cases you could see it declining

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这是美国过去10年与1980年以来的对比，所以在每一个案例中，你都能看到它在下降。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Japan which is large later in that debt cycle and so on basically hardly any growth in productivity

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 日本，在那个债务周期中处于非常后期的庞大经济体等等，基本上几乎没有任何生产力增长。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So so okay that's what productivity looks like

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，好吧，这就是生产力的状况。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And where are we in the short-term debt cycle or the business cycle this is what the cycle looks like that I was describing

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那么我们在短期债务周期或商业周期中处于什么位置呢？这就是我刚才描述的那个周期的样子。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words what happens from the capital markets perspective as as you begin to go to higher levels of operating rates lower levels of unemployment central banks begin to tighten liquidity starts to tighten then risk premiums start to rise

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，从资本市场的角度来看，当，当你开始进入更高的开工率、更低的失业率水平时，中央银行开始收紧，流动性（liquidity）开始收紧，然后风险溢价（risk premiums）开始上升。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay in this cycle we're nine years into the cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的，在这个周期中，我们已经进入周期九年了。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Unemployment rates are comparatively low and there's less slack

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 失业率相对较低，而且闲置资源（slack）较少。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So you know no surprise central banks tighten monetary policy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以你知道，毫不奇怪，中央银行会收紧货币政策。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And the way they tighten monetary policy is by either raising interest rates or lowering the purchases of the financial assets that they buy by expanding the balance sheet

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们收紧货币政策的方式，要么是提高利率，要么是减少他们通过扩张资产负债表（balance sheet）所购买的金融资产。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So that's where we are in that cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这就是我们在那个周期中所处的位置。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Now if you look at uh how markets behave in that part of the cycle this is breaking the cycles into three parts

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 现在如果你看看，嗯，市场在周期的那个阶段是如何表现的，这里将周期分成了三个部分。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The early phases of the cycle the mid phase of the cycle and the late phase of the cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 周期的早期阶段，周期的中期阶段，以及周期的晚期阶段。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And this is across the world uh different countries

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这是在世界范围内的，嗯，不同国家。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This is the United States This is Europe to show how the historical

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这是美国。这是欧洲，展示了历史上的情况。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So we're in a period of time This period of time which is rel relatively late in the cycle is also associated with a period of time where there is less attractive returns greater vulnerability

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我们正处于一个时期。这个在周期中相对较晚的时期，也伴随着一个回报吸引力下降、脆弱性（vulnerability）增加的时期。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So that's largely where we are in the cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这很大程度上就是我们在周期中所处的位置。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Interest rates hit their lows in some cases can't go lower

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 利率触及低点，在某些情况下无法再低了。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then we're dealing with the issue of quantitative easing

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后我们在处理量化宽松（quantitative easing）的问题。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So taking this back to this goes back to 1900

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以把这个带回到，这追溯到1900年。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This shows debt debt to GDP ratio in the United States and it just shows how the cycle that we're going through now is very similar to the cycle that we went into the 30s

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这展示了美国的债务、债务与GDP比率（debt to GDP ratio），它恰恰表明了我们现在正在经历的周期，与我们进入30年代的周期非常相似。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words because of that debt crisis and interest rates hitting zero you had the printing of money

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，因为那场债务危机和利率降至零，你看到了印钞。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This shows the central bank's balance sheet uh the monetary base the acceleration of printing of money

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这展示了中央银行的资产负债表，嗯，基础货币（monetary base），印钞的加速。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Same thing happened in the 2008 financial crisis

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 同样的事情发生在2008年的金融危机中。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You could see what happens is you have the debt crisis

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你可以看到发生的事情是，你遇到了债务危机。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You have the hitting of zero in interest rates

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你遇到了利率降至零的情况。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: They're stuck

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们陷入了困境（stuck）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So they have to print the money and then we have the reaction very similar to 1932 to 1937

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以他们不得不印发货币，然后我们看到了与1932年到1937年非常相似的反应。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The economy picks up 1937 they start to tighten monetary policy because they're worried that the economy is overheating and inflation's going to rise and they cause a recession

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 经济复苏，1937年他们开始收紧货币政策，因为他们担心经济过热且通胀将会上升，于是他们引发了一场衰退（recession）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That's the first time they use the word recession

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那是他们第一次使用“衰退”这个词。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Recession it was like redepression

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 衰退，它就像是再次萧条（redepression）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: They use the term recession and that was the 1938 period

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们使用了衰退这个词，那是1938年的时期。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Now I talked about debt but there are also unfunded liabilities that we don't call debt which would be pension and healthcare liabilities

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 现在我谈到了债务，但还有一些我们不称之为债务的无资金准备的负债（unfunded liabilities），那将是养老金（pension）和医疗保健的负债。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And I just wanted to give you a picture of what that's like

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我只是想给你展示一下那是怎样的画面。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That has there's a lot of liabilities out there promises that have to be kept

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那有……外面有很多负债，必须兑现的承诺。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so the liabilities of are very large

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以负债非常庞大。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I want you to focus then on these the bottom charts before I put the top charts in because I I want to convey as it relates to both markets and the economy the important realizing that we've been really in a golden age of capitalism in the following sense

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后我想让你们把注意力集中在这些底部图表上，在我放入顶部图表之前，因为我，我想传达与市场和经济都有关的重要认识：在以下意义上，我们真的处于资本主义的黄金时代（golden age of capitalism）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This chart shows how profit margins have increased

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这张图表展示了利润率（profit margins）是如何增加的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words they've more than doubled since 2000

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，自2000年以来它们增加了一倍多。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That means if you didn't have an expansion in profit margins you wouldn't have you'd have the stock market 40% lower

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这意味着如果你没有利润率的扩张（expansion），你将不会有……你的股票市场将会低40%。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You had an expansion in profit margins and at the same time you had a decrease in the form of employee compensation and profit margins be largely because of a number of factors but technology has been replacing people and so it's made it more efficient

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你有了利润率的扩张，同时你在员工薪酬（employee compensation）的形式上出现了下降，而利润率（扩张）很大程度上是因为一些因素，但技术一直在取代人类，所以这让它变得更有效率。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So that that was an element

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以那是一个因素。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Also globalization has helped

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 全球化（globalization）也有所帮助。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Just to show you a couple of charts pertaining to this

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 只是向你展示几张与此相关的图表。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This is the globalization movement and this is capital movement

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这是全球化运动，这是资本流动（capital movement）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And these scatter diagrams show if you go the globalization companies that have gone global on the margin have improved their profit margins more

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这些散点图显示，如果你看全球化，那些在边际上实现全球化的公司更多地提高了他们的利润率。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And those that are more concentrated have improved their profit margins more

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而那些更集中的公司更多地提高了他们的利润率。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And those who have reduced union membership have produced their profit margins more

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而那些减少了工会成员（union membership）的公司更多地创造了利润率。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so as a result of that this has contributed to the growth of the wealth gap and the profit gap

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以结果就是，这促成了财富差距（wealth gap）和利润差距（profit gap）的增长。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It's been great for companies but it has not been good for a certain percentage of the population

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这对公司来说很棒，但对一定比例的人口来说并不好。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you look at the conditions of the bottom 60% of the co population bottom six 60 means the majority

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你看看底层60%人口的状况，底层60意味着大多数人。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The conditions have been bad

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 状况一直很糟糕。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There has not been over the since 1980 any income growth real income growth in the United States

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 自1980年以来，美国没有任何收入增长，实际收入增长（real income growth）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In a Fed survey the 40% of all Americans could not raise $400 in the event of an emergency

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 在美联储的一项调查中，40%的美国人在发生紧急情况时无法筹集到400美元。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So there is a gap and with that gap has come this is the wealth gap

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以存在一个差距，伴随着那个差距而来的，这就是财富差距。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The top onetenth of 1% of the population's net worth is almost the same as the bottom 90% combined

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 顶层0.1%人口的净资产几乎等于底层90%人口的总和。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And as a result we have populism

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 结果，我们有了民粹主义（populism）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Populism of the left and populism of the right

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 左翼的民粹主义和右翼的民粹主义。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That was a phenomenon that developed countries didn't used to have

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那是发达国家过去不曾有过的现象。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so now it is a not only political phenomenon it's an economic and market phenomenon

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以现在它不仅是一个政治现象，它还是一个经济和市场现象。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Because as we come to go into the political elections in a number of countries in Europe and in the United States it will be really a conflict over capitalism versus socialism or the left and the right

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因为当我们即将进入欧洲多个国家以及美国的政治选举时，它将真正成为资本主义与社会主义（capitalism versus socialism）之间的冲突，或者说左翼与右翼之间的冲突。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And it's going to become rather extreme in both of those cases

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而且在两种情况下它都会变得相当极端（extreme）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And that has an implication just as the these profit margins improved and and then tax rates that's the effective corporate tax rate and how the effective corporate tax rate isn't that's been fantastic

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这就产生了一个暗示，就像这些利润率的提高，然后是税率——那是实际企业税率（effective corporate tax rate），以及实际企业税率如何……那真是太棒了。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So imagine you have profit margins increasing you have the tax rate going down you have cheap money cheap money has been used to borrow to buy back stock or make mergers that's also supportive to stock prices and so on many of those things will not continue

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以想象一下，你有利润率在上升，你有税率在下降，你有廉价货币（cheap money），廉价货币被用来借款回购股票（buy back stock）或进行并购（mergers），这对股票价格也有支撑作用等等，这些事情中的许多将不会继续下去。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We think profit margins will go down

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们认为利润率将会下降。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I think you're at the best of the corporate tax rates and in terms of uh the issue in terms of the wealth gap

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我认为你们正处于企业税率的最佳时期，就……嗯，就财富差距的问题而言。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So we're entering a newer environment including an environment which is not going to be as conducive to the purchasing of financial assets by central banks and all of that

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我们正在进入一个更新的环境，包括一个不那么有利于中央银行购买金融资产等等的环境。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We're going from headwinds from tailwinds to headwinds

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们正在从顺风（tailwinds）转为逆风（headwinds）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And to give you a a flavor of what this political situation is like and the polarity and the entrenchedness these are two charts

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 为了让你体会一下这种政治局势是什么样的，以及这种两极分化（polarity）和根深蒂固的程度，这里有两张图表。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The first they go back to 1900

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第一张它们追溯到1900年。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The first chart which is the red chart shows how conservative the Republicans are surveyed economically conservative

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第一张图表也就是红色图表，显示了被调查的共和党人有多么保守，经济上的保守。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So the they're more conservative than they have ever been the Democrats it shows how liberal they are in terms of policies and they're more liberal than they have ever been

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，他们比以往任何时候都更加保守；民主党人，它显示了他们在政策方面有多么自由派（liberal），并且他们比以往任何时候都更加自由派。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So the two have not had greater polarity than we have today in politics

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这两党在政治上的两极分化从未像今天这么严重过。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And this shows how much is the votes cast along party lines

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这个展示了有多少投票是沿着党派路线（party lines）进行的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words Republicans sticking with Republicans and Democrats sticking with de Democrats

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，共和党人坚定支持共和党人，民主党人坚定支持民主党人。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so it shows the entrenched conflict that we're having

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以它表明了我们正在经历的根深蒂固的冲突。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This is in the United States

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这是在美国。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This is not just a United States phenomenon

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这不仅仅是一个美国现象。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It is a European phenomenon as much

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这同样也是一个欧洲现象。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We're going to be going into elections in Europe for the European elections and then we're also going to have changes in politics and there's going to be more movement to political extremes

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们将要进入欧洲的选举，即欧洲选举，然后我们也将在政治上迎来改变，并且将会有更多走向政治极端（political extremes）的运动。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: For example in the UK I think it's likely that Jeremy Corbin will be in power which will have an effect on capital flows

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 例如在英国，我认为杰里米·科尔宾（Jeremy Corbin）很可能会掌权，这将对资本流动（capital flows）产生影响。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So we're entering a period of time in which we're late rather late in the cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我们正在进入这样一个时期：在周期中，我们处于晚期，相当晚的阶段。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Central banks have less power than they used to to ease and we're having this populism in an election cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 中央银行用于宽松（ease）的权力不如以前了，而且我们在选举周期中面临着这种民粹主义。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So that's kind of the lay of the land

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这大概就是目前的局势（lay of the land）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you look at Europe you can judge the capacity of a country to ease by looking at the level of interest rates relative to zero and the amount of quantitative easing that can take place and its marginal effects

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你看看欧洲，你可以通过观察相对于零的利率水平、可以进行的量化宽松数量及其边际效应（marginal effects），来判断一个国家的宽松能力。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So let's say in the United States you go from 2.5% to zero and you're done

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以比方说在美国，你从2.5%降到零，你就无计可施了。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In Europe you're at zero

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 在欧洲，你已经处于零了。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And in Europe there are limitations caps at 33% of certain types of debt that they have hit that they can't go beyond unless there's some sort of an agreement

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而在欧洲，存在着对某些类型债务33%的限制上限（caps），他们已经触及了这个上限，除非达成某种协议，否则他们无法超越。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And politically it's very difficult to have an agreement

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而在政治上，达成协议是非常困难的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So in in Europe is going to be a problem for the ECB in terms of being able to have the ability to stimulate

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以在欧洲，对于欧洲央行（ECB）来说，能否拥有刺激能力将成为一个问题。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And Japan is in a pi position somewhat similar with these negative interest rates slightly negative interest rates father and lesser ability to to stimulate

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而日本处于一个有些相似的位置，伴随着这些负利率（negative interest rates），稍微负的利率，并且拥有更少的刺激能力。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So that's the lay of the land I think in terms of markets and economy within the template that I showed you for to begin with

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我认为，在开始时我向你们展示的模板范围内，这就是关于市场和经济的局势。

章节 6：世界储备货币的兴衰史与六大力量

📝 本节摘要：

在本章中，Ray Dalio 将视角转向宏观地缘政治与历史长河，深入探讨了中国作为崛起大国在全球日益增长的影响力，以及历史上世界储备货币（荷兰盾、英镑、美元）的兴衰周期。他指出，大国的崛起往往由技术创新（如早期的造船术与当今的5G技术）驱动，进而带动全球贸易、军事扩张，并最终确立其货币的世界储备地位。通过整理决定国家实力的核心要素，他不仅梳理了过去几百年的大国权力更迭，也为判断当前经济周期晚期及政治极化环境下的资本流动趋势提供了历史坐标系。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay In terms of the rising power challenging existing power China will be an important influence in the world that we're operating in for the rest of our lifetimes

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。就挑战现有大国的崛起大国而言，在我们的余生中，中国将对我们所处的世界产生重要影响。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It'll become an increasing influence in that globalization and so on

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 它将在全球化（globalization）等方面发挥越来越大的影响。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So uh this just shows where they are in United States and uh China in relative output

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，嗯，这仅仅展示了美国和，嗯，中国在相对产出（relative output）上的位置。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This is what I believe that we're what's likely in terms of equity market cap and share of debt securities outstanding

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这是我认为我们……在股票市值（equity market cap）和未偿还债务证券份额（share of debt securities outstanding）方面可能的情况。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words the Chinese markets are big and becoming bigger and more liquid and more effective and they are going to play an important role as will the Chinese economy in the environment we're in not only in the form of trade but also in the form of you know the the whole geopolitics particularly reflected through technology

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，中国市场规模庞大，并且正变得越来越大、流动性（liquid）越来越好、越来越有效率，它们将发挥重要作用，正如中国经济在我们所处的环境中也将发挥重要作用一样，不仅以贸易的形式，而且你知道，以整个地缘政治（geopolitics）的形式，特别是通过技术反映出来。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you look at history and what caused countries to succeed and fail it was particularly led by technology

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你纵观历史，看看是什么导致了国家的成功与失败，那特别是受技术主导的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So I've been over the last several months wanting to research the rise and declines of world reserve currencies

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以在过去的几个月里，我一直想研究世界储备货币（world reserve currencies）的兴衰。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And in order to do that I have to watch the arc of each one of these reserve currencies

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 为了做到这一点，我必须观察这些储备货币中每一种的轨迹（arc）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There's the US dollar Before that there was the British pound Before that there was the Dutch Gilder

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 有美元。在那之前是英镑。在那之前是荷兰盾（Dutch Gilder）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And as a result of that I needed to understand a number of things about the economies that made them reserve currency

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 结果就是，我需要了解那些使它们成为储备货币的经济体的许多事情。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: How did they become reserve currencies how did they lose their reserve currency status and that led me to watch a number of factors and studying those

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 它们是如何成为储备货币的？它们是如何失去其储备货币地位（reserve currency status）的？这促使我观察并研究了许多因素。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I I love putting together statistics and numbers to put together indices

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我……我喜欢把统计数据和数字整理在一起，以汇编成指数（indices）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So these are the six main factors that you can judge a country's power by

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这里有六个主要因素，你可以据此判断一个国家的力量。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You know power is a a vague thing

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你知道，力量是一个模糊的东西。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You can have economic power You can have military power You can have power in different ways

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你可以拥有经济力量。你可以拥有军事力量。你可以拥有不同方式的力量。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But this is the when I went to each one of these four cases Here's the Dutch cycle Here's the British cycle Here's the US cycle Here's the Chinese cycle in reflected in these this dynamic

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但这是……当我研究这四个案例中的每一个时。这是荷兰的周期。这是英国的周期。这是美国的周期。这是中国的周期，反映在这些……这种动态中。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And what you can see this classic cycle is first it's innovation meaning technology education and competitiveness mostly a new technology and the new technology like the 5G technology today and the issues pertaining to Huawei and other technology companies if you have technology it works both economically and militarily and so there's always a new technology in the case of the Dutch

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你能看到这种经典的周期首先是创新（innovation），意味着技术、教育和竞争力，主要是一项新技术，而这项新技术就像今天的5G技术以及与华为及其他科技公司相关的问题，如果你拥有技术，它在经济和军事上都能起作用，所以总会有一项新技术，以荷兰人为例。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It was the ability to build ships that can go anywhere around the world

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那是建造能够航行到世界任何地方的船只的能力。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And they took those ships and because the Europeans were experts in fighting because they always fought with each other they took the guns they put them on the ships and they go out to the rest of the world and they accounted for half of world trade

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们开着那些船，因为欧洲人是战斗专家（因为他们总是互相打仗），他们带着枪，把它们放在船上，然后去往世界其他地方，他们占据了世界贸易的一半。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Can you imagine that and when they go out there with half of world trade they're bringing their money the Dutch gilder

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你能想象吗？当他们带着世界贸易的一半出去时，他们带着他们的钱，即荷兰盾。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay And they so they bring the money and when they ha bring the money it becomes a world reserve currency and in order to go out in the world they have to have a military to support that

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。所以他们带来了钱，当他们带来钱时，它就成了一种世界储备货币，而为了走向世界，他们必须拥有支持它的军事力量。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so these cycles go on and if you look at that this is uh the red line is China and the blue line is the United States in terms of the averages of these things and it goes back to 1500

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这些周期不断延续，如果你看这个，这是，嗯，红线是中国，蓝线是美国，就这些因素的平均值而言，它可以追溯到1500年。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And one of the things you could see there is that the Chinese have typically been number one or number two

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你在那能看到的其中一件事是，中国人通常排在第一或第二位。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Although the world was a different size then you know those were all very far away places We now have one sort of world

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 尽管那时的世界有着不同的规模，你知道那些都是非常遥远的地方。我们现在拥有了某种同处于一个世界的格局。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So those are the economic principles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以以上那些就是经济原则。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So I think we're late in the business cycle relatively late I would say the seventh inning of the business cycle

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我认为我们处于商业周期的晚期，相对较晚，我会说是商业周期的第七局（seventh inning）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There is a relatively tightening of monetary policy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 存在着货币政策的相对收紧。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We have li less capacity we have greater polarity and we have um a situation in which we're going to have political issues and those political issues will be market issues because as as we start to think will this be a movement to the right or a movement to the left that will affect capital flows

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们的产能较少，我们的两极分化更严重，而且我们，嗯，处于一种将面临政治问题的局面，而那些政治问题将成为市场问题，因为当我们开始思考这是否将是一场向右的运动或向左的运动时，那将会影响资本流动（capital flows）。

章节 7：核心投资原则与资产回报机制

📝 本节摘要：

演讲者（Ray Dalio）从宏观经济转向了具体的投资原则。他指出，投资的理论价值是未来现金流的现值，而实际价值由总支出和数量决定。资产类别在长期内必须跑赢现金，但这种超额收益往往伴随波动。他引入了“贝塔（Beta）”和“阿尔法（Alpha）”的概念，前者由经济增长和通胀等宏观环境驱动，后者则是投资者互博的零和游戏。Dalio 强调，应对未知最好的方法是建立永恒且普遍的决策规则，并通过“风险平衡”构建出全天候的多元化投资组合，因为绝大多数投资者常犯的错误是将“近期涨得好”误认为“值得投资”。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So these are my list of investment principles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这些是我的投资原则清单。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The template that I look first the theoretical value equals the present value of future cash flows

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我首先看的模板是，理论价值（theoretical value）等于未来现金流的现值（present value）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words every investment is a lumpsum payment for a future cash flow

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，每一项投资都是为了未来的现金流而支付的一笔总额（lumpsum payment）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So when we think what is something worth we look at those projected cash flows and we discount it with an interest rate

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以当我们在思考某样东西值多少钱时，我们看的是那些预期现金流（projected cash flows），并且我们用一个利率对其进行折现（discount）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That's the theoretical value the actual value that it will trade at will equal the total amount of spending

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那是理论价值，而它交易的实际价值（actual value）将等于总支出金额。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If I calculate total amount of dollars spending on something divided by the quantity of goods sold

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果我计算花在某样东西上的美元总额，除以售出的商品数量。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So I'm always looking at who how much is going to be spent and what are the motivations of the spenders and how much of it it's going to be quantity

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我总是在观察谁会花多少钱、支出者的动机是什么，以及其中有多少会是数量（quantity）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I try to estimate what the total spending is divided by the quantity to estimate the price Okay

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我试图估算总支出除以数量，以此来估算价格。好的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Number three is that asset classes will outperform cash over the long term

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第三点是，资产类别（asset classes）在长期内表现将优于现金（outperform cash）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I explained that it's required otherwise the gears economy comes to a halt and that the per outperformance of asset classes over cash that beta uh cannot be very positive for too long because if it was it would be easy if it was positive you just buy borrow cash and you buy the long things and you make a lot of money

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我解释过这是必须的，否则经济齿轮就会停滞；而且资产类别优于现金的表现——即贝塔（beta），嗯，不能在太长时间内表现得非常正向，因为如果它是正的，那就太容易了，你只需借入现金并买入做多资产，你就能赚很多钱。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It have comes with big bumps along the way and that assets are priced to discount future expectations most importantly inflation growth risk premiums and discount rates

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 它在发展过程中必然伴随着巨大的颠簸，且资产的定价是对未来预期（future expectations）的折现，最重要的是通货膨胀、经济增长、风险溢价（risk premiums）和折现率（discount rates）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And I'm going to get into that in a minute

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我马上就会详细讲这一点。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then every investment is a return stream

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后，每一项投资都是一个回报流（return stream）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: What I mean is every day you can market to the market You know what it's like

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我的意思是，每天你都可以按市场计价（market to the market）。你知道那是什么感觉。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so the key is to be able to put together portfolios of return streams so that they balance well as Hashim was saying

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以关键在于能够把这些回报流组合成投资组合（portfolios），让它们良好地平衡，就像哈希姆（Hashim）刚才说的那样。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I would say whatever success that I've had in life or that Bridgewwater has had to do with knowing how to deal with our not knowing more than anything we know because what you don't know is a lot

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我想说，无论我在生活中或者桥水基金（Bridgewater）取得了怎样的成功，都与知道如何应对我们的“无知”有关，这比我们所知道的任何事情都重要，因为你不知道的东西有很多。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And if and you can reduce your risk by a lot more than you could reduce your return by knowing how to diversify well

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而且如果你懂得如何很好地进行多元化（diversify），你降低风险的程度将远大于你降低回报的程度。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So diversification can reduce risk more than it reduces return

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以多元化降低风险的程度超过了它降低回报的程度。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So it improves the return to risk ratios

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以它提高了回报风险比（return to risk ratios）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then I say that there I'm sorry if I'm getting technical but there are two types of return streams

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后我说，很抱歉如果我讲得有些技术性了，但存在两种类型的回报流。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There is a beta return and an alpha return stream

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 有一种贝塔（beta）回报流和一种阿尔法（alpha）回报流。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And what I mean by a beta return stream is that there is an intrinsic reason that that asset class will behave in a certain way that you will know

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我所说的贝塔回报流是指，存在一个内在的原因，使得该资产类别会以一种你会知道的特定方式表现。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words if growth rises faster than discounted and interest rates don't rise much you know that that stocks are going to go up

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，如果经济增长快于折现预期，并且利率没有上升太多，你就知道股票会上涨。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So there is environmental so you can structure that

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以存在环境因素，因此你可以据此进行构建（structure）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Alpha is a zero- sum game

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 阿尔法是一个零和游戏（zero-sum game）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words for me to produce alpha I have to be outperform I have to take money away from somebody else

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，为了让我产生阿尔法，我必须表现出色，我必须从别人那里把钱拿走。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It's a zero- sum game like poker at a poker table

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这是一个零和游戏，就像扑克桌上的扑克牌一样。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So they can be either alphas or betas

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以它们可以是阿尔法或贝塔。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And the key to good investing is to create good portfolios of good return streams

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而成功投资的关键在于用好的回报流创建优秀的投资组合。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then in order to balance these you have to risk balance them

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后为了平衡这些，你必须对它们进行风险平衡（risk balance）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words if if somebody might think if I put 50% of my dollars in stocks and 50% of my dollars in bonds that I have my diversification but not so because the volatility of stocks is greater than twice the volatility of bonds

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，如果有人可能认为，如果我把50%的钱放在股票里，50%的钱放在债券里，我就实现了多元化，但事实并非如此，因为股票的波动性（volatility）大于债券波动性的两倍。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And because of that you have to risk balance them

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 正因为如此，你必须对它们进行风险平衡。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then the holy grail of investing is to find 15 or more good uncorrelated return streams I'll get into that in a minute

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后投资的圣杯（holy grail of investing）是找到15个或更多优秀的不相关（uncorrelated）回报流。我马上就会讲到。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then as Hasha mentioned then the systemizing decision rules is critical and those rules should be timeless and universal

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后正如哈沙（Hasha）提到的，系统化决策规则是至关重要的，而这些规则应该是永恒且普遍的（timeless and universal）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: What I mean is as I said I write down the criteria

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我的意思是，就像我刚才说的，我写下了这些标准。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We write down the criteria for investing and then we take those criteria and we test them through all periods of time and all countries timeless and universal

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们写下投资的标准，然后我们拿着这些标准，在所有时间段和所有国家中进行测试，做到永恒且普遍。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Because if something happened in one time and your process is not working in that time then it must be that you haven't explained the differences

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因为如果在某个时间发生了一件事，而你的流程在那个时间不起作用，那就一定是因为你没有解释清楚其中的差异。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so by forcing ourselves to try to make those rules timeless and universal it then becomes the you know the the standard that we operate by

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以通过强迫我们自己努力使这些规则变得永恒且普遍，它随后就成为了，你知道的，我们运作的标准。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So all of the rules that we're operating by are timeless and universal

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我们用来运作的所有规则都是永恒且普遍的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I'll just pass through some charts

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我将快速过一下一些图表。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So this going back to 1975 think of this as the rolling returns of asset classes

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那么这个追溯到1975年，把这个看作是资产类别的滚动回报（rolling returns）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay what you can see is that all of the asset classes have sometimes that are good sometimes that are bad

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的，你可以看到的是，所有的资产类别都有表现好和表现差的时候。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: On average they're above zero but they all have periods of down

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 平均而言它们高于零，但它们都有下跌的时期。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And inevitably what happens is that investors most investors love the asset classes that did well

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而不可避免发生的情况是，投资者，大多数投资者喜欢那些表现良好的资产类别。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The biggest mistakes of most investors is that they think that the investment that did well is a good investment rather than it's an more expensive investment

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 大多数投资者犯的最大错误是，他们认为表现良好的投资就是一项好投资，而不是一项更昂贵（more expensive）的投资。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Here's equities recently done well Here's commodities done very poorly then here but here's equities right done very poorly in that period of time

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这里是最近表现良好的股票。这里是表现非常差的大宗商品（commodities），然后这里，但这里是股票，对吧，在那段时间里表现非常差。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So the key as Hashim was saying is balance how to do that

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以关键正如哈希姆所说的那样，是平衡，如何做到这一点。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So you can break the drivers of asset class returns into a few categories

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以你可以将资产类别回报的驱动因素分为几个类别。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This is true for any asset class and it's true for all asset classes

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这对任何资产类别都适用，并且对所有资产类别都适用。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There are two main things that drive it in terms of that's inflation and growth

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 就这方面而言，有两个主要因素驱动它，那就是通货膨胀（inflation）和经济增长（growth）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Basically if you tell me that inflation's going to be higher than expected and growth be higher than expected I would know what to invest in higher than discounted

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 基本上，如果你告诉我通胀将高于预期，并且增长将高于预期，我就会知道该投资什么——高于折现预期的资产。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And if it's you say it's lower I'll know what to invest in

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而如果你说它更低，我就知道该投资什么。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Then most people here would

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那么这里的大多数人也会知道。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So those become the two main drivers They can rise or they decline

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以那两个因素成为了主要的驱动力。它们可以上升，也可以下降。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then there are discount rates and risk premiums

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后还有折现率（discount rates）和风险溢价（risk premiums）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Discount rates mean the in as I told you the interest rate affects all asset classes because the interest rate is the discount rate that you use to compare the cash flow

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 折现率意味着，正如我告诉过你的，利率影响所有的资产类别，因为利率就是你用来比较现金流的折现率。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So you raise the interest rate and that's negative for all asset classes and then you have when you strip all of that risk premiums out and if you and that equals the following

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以你提高利率，那对所有的资产类别都是负面的；然后当你剥离所有那些风险溢价之后，并且如果你……这就等于以下几点。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This shows what happened in history in relationship to that context

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这展示了在那种背景下历史上发生了什么。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The top chart shows a growth assets relative to strong and assets that you'd hold if you had a falling growth environment assets that you'd have a rising fry Same with inflation

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 最上面的图表显示了相对于强劲增长的增长型资产，以及如果你处于经济增长下降环境中你会持有的资产，以及处于上升环境中的资产。通胀也是同样的道理。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Then it shows what the discount rate is and then it shows what the risk premium which was the residual of that and that's what we have all weather return all weather is a our optimally diversified portfolio

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后它显示了折现率是多少，接着它显示了作为其剩余部分的风险溢价是多少；这就是我们拥有的全天候回报（all weather return），全天候是我们最优化的多元化投资组合（optimally diversified portfolio）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay I'm going to skip this chart What it's meant to show basically is that how diversification can substantially improve your risk to return ratio

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的，我打算跳过这张图表。它要表达的基本意思是，多元化能如何在很大程度上提高你的风险回报比。

章节 8：投资的圣杯：去相关性与多元化

📝 本节摘要：

在本章的总结部分，Ray Dalio 揭示了他眼中的“投资圣杯”——寻找10到15个拥有良好回报且互不相关的投资流。他指出，绝大多数投资者的误区在于试图把所有资金押注在“最好”的单一资产上；而实际上，通过合理的多元化配置，投资者可以在完全不降低预期回报的前提下，将投资风险大幅降低近80%。这种操作极大地提升了风险回报比。因此，建立高度分散的战略资产配置（Beta），并寻找上百种不同的超额收益来源（Alpha），才是长期投资成功的终极密码。演讲最后，他向听众表达了感谢并开启互动问答。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I want to turn to this chart

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我想转向这张图表。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So this is what I believe the holy grail of investing is

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这就是我认为的投资的圣杯（holy grail of investing）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you can do this you'll make a fortune You'll be very successful

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你能做到这一点，你就能赚大钱，你将会非常成功。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And it's simple Really maybe not simple to pull off but simple concept

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而且这很简单。真的，也许执行（pull off）起来不简单，但概念很简单。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you can get 10 good uncorrelated investments five good uncorrelated investments 15 good uncorrelated investments you can substantially improve the return to risk ratio

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你能获得10个良好的不相关投资（uncorrelated investments），5个良好的不相关投资，15个良好的不相关投资，你就能大幅提高回报风险比（return to risk ratio）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And this just shows how it works and why diversification is more important than being good even in picking the best investments

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这仅仅展示了它是如何运作的，以及为什么多元化（diversification）甚至比擅长挑选最佳投资更重要。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And most people think give me the best investment and let me put all my money in what I think is the best investment

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而大多数人认为，给我最好的投资，让我把我所有的钱投入到我认为最好的投资中。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Wrong

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 错了。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The best find your best 10 uncorrelated investments and put your money in that and you're going to do a lot better

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 最好的做法是找到你最好的10个不相关投资，把你的钱投入其中，你会做得好得多。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And this just gives you an example

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这只是给你举个例子。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So this is the standard deviation let's call it the risk of 10%

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那么这就是标准差（standard deviation），我们称之为10%的风险（risk）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And just imagine I put in an asset I'll use a simple example that has 10% return and 10% standard deviation

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 想象一下，我放入一项资产，我用一个简单的例子，它有10%的回报和10%的标准差。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So let's say it's 10% return 10% standard deviation and let's say I put in a second investment that is 60% correlated with that

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 假设它是10%的回报、10%的标准差，假设我放入第二项投资，它与前一项有60%的相关性（correlated）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Third fourth fifth and sixth and so on

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第三、第四、第五、第六项，以此类推。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This is how my risk in my portfolio would change

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这就是我的投资组合（portfolio）中风险将会发生怎样的变化。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That means like if you have a diversified portfolio of stocks average stock is about 60% correlated with average other stocks and you can put in a 100 you can put in a thousand and you are not going to materially reduce your risk relative to putting in you know just 5 to 10 and you could see that that'll lower your risk by 10 or 15%

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这意味着，如果你有一个多元化的股票投资组合，平均每只股票与其他平均股票的相关性约为60%，你可以放入100只，你可以放入1000只，相对于只放入你知道的仅仅5到10只，你并不会实质性地降低你的风险，你可以看到那只会降低你10%或15%的风险。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you have an uncorrelated return stream and you can get actually better than uncorrelated because you could have negatively correlated

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你有一个不相关的回报流，并且实际上你可以获得比不相关更好的结果，因为你可以拥有负相关（negatively correlated）的回报。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But let's say I put in an uncorrelated return stream

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但假设我放入了一个不相关的回报流。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: This is how the line goes

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这里的曲线是这样走的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So you could see like at five you've more than cut your risk in half

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以你可以看到，大概在放入5个时，你的风险已经降低了一半以上。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Five uncorrelated return streams

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 5个不相关的回报流。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you have down to 15 you're going to reduce your risk by nearly 80%

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你放到了15个，你将减少近80%的风险。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That means you've improved your return to risk ratio by a factor of five

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这意味着你把你的回报风险比提高了5倍（by a factor of five）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So you can reduce your risk a lot without reducing your return

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以你可以在不降低回报的情况下大幅降低风险。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And that is the key to it

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而这就是关键所在。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Right so when I look at this I think that there are two types of assets

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 对的，所以当我看着这个，我认为有两种类型的资产。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: What's your strategic asset allocation mix what is your beta in other words what portfolio do you normally have and in my opinion it should be highly diversified but with along those lines in terms of like half in growth half inflation rising or declining

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 什么是你的战略资产配置组合（strategic asset allocation mix），什么是你的贝塔（beta），换句话说，你通常拥有什么投资组合？在我看来，它应该是高度多元化的，顺着那些脉络，比如一半在经济增长、一半在通胀上升或下降的资产中。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then alphas you have to have a lot of different alphas

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后是阿尔法（alphas），你必须有很多不同的阿尔法。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Like in our case we have you know well over 100 different types of alphas about 130 different kinds of markets actually in terms of trading

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 就像我们的情况，我们有，你知道的，超过100种不同类型的阿尔法，在交易方面实际上大约有130种不同的市场。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So that's it

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以就是这样。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Thank you for your patience

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 感谢你们的耐心。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Let's have a conversation about it

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 让我们就此展开讨论吧。