📝 本节摘要：
本章作为开篇，主持人 Lex Fridman 简要介绍了传奇激进投资者比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）的背景。阿克曼分享了对他职业生涯影响深远的启蒙著作——本杰明·格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。他详细阐述了价格与价值的本质区别，解释了市场作为“短期投票机”与“长期称重机”的经典隐喻，并深刻剖析了投机与投资的根本差异。阿克曼提出，投资的核心在于将股票视作生意的权益，去预测一家企业在其生命周期内能产生的现金流现值；而他毕生追求的，正是寻找那些在极长周期内具有极高确定性的稀缺公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The only person who cause you more harm than a thief with the dagger is a journalist with a pen.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 唯一能比拿匕首的窃贼对你造成更大伤害的人，是拿笔的记者。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: The following is a conversation with Bill Ackman, a legendary activist investor who has been part of some of the biggest and at times controversial trades in history.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 以下是与比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）的对话，他是一位传奇的激进投资者（activist investor），曾参与过历史上一些规模最大、有时也备受争议的交易。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Also, he is fearlessly vocal on X, FKA Twitter and uses the platform to fight for ideas he believes in.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 此外，他在 X（原名 Twitter）上无所畏惧地发声，利用该平台为他所信仰的理念而战。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: For example, he was a central figure in the resignation of the President of Harvard University, Claudine Gay, the saga of which we discuss in this episode.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 例如，他是哈佛大学校长克劳汀·盖伊（Claudine Gay）辞职事件的核心人物，我们将在本期节目中讨论这一事件的始末。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: This is The Lex Fridman Podcast, to support it please check out our sponsors in the description. And now dear friends, here's Bill Ackman.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 这里是 Lex Fridman 播客，如需支持本节目，请查看简介中的赞助商链接。现在，亲爱的朋友们，有请比尔·阿克曼。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: In your lecture on the basics of finance and investing, you mention a book, "Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham as being formative in your life. What key lesson do you take away from that book that informs your own investing?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 在你关于金融和投资基础知识的演讲中，你提到本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）的《聪明的投资者》（Intelligent Investor）一书对你的人生具有塑造意义。你从这本书中学到了什么关键教训，从而指导了你自己的投资？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sure. Actually it was the first investment book I read, and as such, it was kind of the inspiration for my career and a lot of my life, so important book.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然。实际上这是我读的第一本投资书，正因如此，它成为了我职业生涯乃至人生大部分时光的灵感来源，这是一本非常重要的书。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know bear in mind this is sort of after the Great Depression, people lost confidence investing in markets, World War II and then he writes this book, it's for like the average man.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你要知道，这大致是在大萧条之后，人们对市场投资失去了信心，经历了二战，然后他写了这本书，这就像是为普通人写的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And basically he says that you have to understand the difference between price and value, right? Price is what you pay, value is what you get.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 基本上他说你必须理解价格（price）和价值（value）之间的区别，对吧？价格是你所支付的，价值是你所得到的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And he said the stock market is here to serve you.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他还说，股票市场是为你服务的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it's a bit like the neighbor that comes by every day and makes you an offer for your house. Makes you a stupid offer you ignore it, makes you a great offer, you can take it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这有点像那个每天过来为你房子出价的邻居。如果他给你一个愚蠢的出价，你就不理他；如果他给你一个极好的出价，你就可以接受。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that's the stock market. And the key is to figure out what something's worth and you have to kind of weigh it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这就是股票市场。关键是要弄清楚某样东西值多少钱，你必须去权衡它。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He talked about the difference between, he said the stock market in the short term is a voting machine. It represents speculative interests, supply and demand of people in the short term.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他谈到了这其中的区别，他说股票市场在短期内是一台投票机（voting machine）。它代表了短期的投机利益，以及人们在短期内的供求关系。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But in the long term the stock market is a weighing machine, you know, much more accurate. It's gonna tell you what something's worth.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但从长期来看，股票市场是一台称重机（weighing machine），你知道的，它要准确得多。它会告诉你某样东西到底值多少钱。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so if you can define what something's worth, then you can really take advantage of the market 'cause it's really here to help you. And that's kinda the message of the book.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因此，如果你能定义某样东西的价值，那么你就能真正利用好市场，因为它确实是在帮助你。这差不多就是这本书传达的信息。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: In that same way, there's a kind of difference between speculation and investing.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 同样地，投机（speculation）和投资（investing）之间也存在着某种区别。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah, speculation is just, it's a bit like buying trading crypto, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的，投机仅仅是，这有点像买卖交易加密货币（crypto），对吧？
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Strong words.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 措辞很犀利啊。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: (laughs) Well, short term trading crypto, maybe in the long run there's intrinsic value, but many investors in a bubble going into the crash were really just pure speculators.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: （笑）嗯，短期交易加密货币，也许从长远来看存在内在价值，但在泡沫走向崩溃的过程中，许多投资者实际上纯粹只是投机者。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They didn't know what things were worth, they just knew they were going up, that's speculation.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们不知道这些东西值多少钱，他们只知道它们在上涨，这就是投机。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And investing is doing your homework, digging down, understanding a business, understanding the competitive dynamics of an industry, understanding what management's gonna do, understanding what price you're gonna pay,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而投资是做好你的功课，深入挖掘，理解一门生意，理解一个行业的竞争动态，理解管理层将会做什么，理解你将要支付的价格，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: the value of anything I would say, other than love let's say, is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我会说，除了爱之外，任何事物的价值，都是你在其生命周期内能从中提取的现金的现值（present value）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now some people think about love that way, but it's not, it's not the right way to think about love, but it's... Yeah.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 虽然有些人也是这么看待爱的，但事实并非如此，这不是看待爱的正确方式，但它是……是的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So investing is about basically building a model of what this business is gonna produce over its lifetime.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以，投资从根本上说，就是建立一个关于这门生意在其生命周期内将产出什么的模型。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So how do you get to that, this idea of called value investing? How do you get to the value of a thing, even like philosophically value of anything really. But we can just talk about the things that are on the stock market, companies.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么你如何触及那个点，也就是所谓的价值投资（value investing）的理念？你如何得出一个事物的价值，甚至从哲学意义上来说任何事物的价值。不过我们只讨论股票市场上的事物就好，也就是公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The value of a security, the value is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 证券的价值，其价值就是你在它的生命周期内能从中提取的现金的现值。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So if you think about a bond, a bond pays a 5% coupon interest rate, you get that let's say every year or twice a year, split in half.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以，如果你考虑一张债券，债券支付 5% 的票面利率（coupon interest rate），比方说你每年或者每年两次（分成两半）获得这笔利息。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it's very predictable. And if it's a US government bond you know you're gonna get it, so that's a pretty easy thing to value.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 它是非常可预测的。如果这是一张美国政府债券，你知道你肯定能拿到钱，所以这是件很容易估值的事情。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: A stock is an interest in a business. It's like owning a piece of a company, and a business, a profitable one is like a bond in that it generates these coupons or these earnings or cash flow every year.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 股票是对一门生意的权益。这就像拥有一家公司的一部分，而一门生意，一门赚钱的生意就像债券一样，因为它每年都会产生这些“票息”，或者说这些收益或现金流。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The difference with a stock and a bond is that the bond, it's a contract. You know what you're gonna get as long as they don't go bankrupt and default.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 股票和债券的区别在于，债券是一份合同。只要他们不破产和违约，你就知道自己将得到什么。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: With the stock you have to make predictions about the business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而对于股票，你必须对这门生意做出预测。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know how many widgets are gonna sell this year, how many gonna sell next year? What are the costs gonna be? How much of the money that they generate do they need to reinvest in the business to keep the business going?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你要知道今年会卖出多少个小玩意，明年会卖出多少个？成本会是多少？他们产生的资金中有多少需要重新投资到这门生意中，以维持其运转？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that's more complicated. But what we do is we try to find businesses where with a very high degree of confidence, we know what those cash flows are gonna be for a very long time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这就复杂得多了。但我们所做的，是试图寻找那些我们有极高信心、知道它们在极长一段时间内的现金流会是多少的生意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the very few businesses that you can have a really high degree of certainty about.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 以及那些你能对其抱有极高确定性的极少数生意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And as a result many investments are speculations 'cause it's really very difficult to predict the future.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 正因如此，许多投资其实是投机，因为预测未来真的非常困难。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So what we do for a living, what I do for a living is find those rare companies that you can kind of predict what they're gonna look like over a very long period of time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们以此为生的手段，我以此为生的手段，就是去寻找那些你能大致预测出它们在极长一段时间内会是什么样子的稀缺公司。
📝 本节摘要：
本章探讨了如何寻找和评估具有长期投资价值的“非颠覆性”（non-disruptible）企业。阿克曼以环球音乐集团（UMG）为例，分析了音乐产业从实体唱片向流媒体转型的商业模式优势，强调了订阅制带来的现金流可预测性，并结合本·格雷厄姆的“安全边际”理论阐述了估值与防范风险的投资原则。同时，两人就人工智能（AI）对音乐产业的潜在冲击展开了深入交流。阿克曼认为，AI本质上是提升艺术家创作的工具，人类情感与现场体验的独特联结构成了音乐版权库难以被颠覆的核心护城河。最后，他引入餐饮业（如麦当劳）的案例，进一步说明了满足基本需求的商业模式具备极强的持久性。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So what are the factors that indicate that a company is going to be something that's going to make a lot of money, it's gonna have a lot of value and it's going to be reliable over a long period of time.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么，有哪些因素可以表明一家公司将会赚很多钱、具有巨大价值，并且在很长一段时间内都是可靠的呢？
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And what is your process of figuring out whether a company is or isn't that?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你又是通过什么流程来弄清楚一家公司是否具备这些特质的呢？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So every consumer has a view on different brands and different companies.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 每个消费者对不同的品牌和不同的公司都有自己的看法。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you know, what we look for are sort of these non-disruptible businesses.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你要知道，我们寻找的是那种“非颠覆性”（non-disruptible）的企业。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: A business where you can kind of close your eyes, stock market shuts for a decade and you know that 10 years from now it's gonna be a more valuable, more profitable company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 就是那种你可以闭上眼睛，即使股票市场关闭十年，你也能确信十年后它会成为一家更有价值、更赚钱的公司的生意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we own a business called Universal Music Group.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们拥有一家叫作环球音乐集团（Universal Music Group）的公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's in the business of helping artists become global artists, so recorded music business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 它的业务是帮助艺术家成为全球巨星，即录制音乐业务。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it's in the business of owning rights to sort of the music publishing rights of songwriters.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 此外，它还掌握着词曲作者的音乐出版权等权利。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you know, I think music is forever, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道的，我认为音乐是永恒的，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Music is a many thousand year old part of the human experience, and I think it will be thousands of years from now.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 音乐是人类数千年体验的一部分，而且我认为在距今数千年后它依然存在。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so that's a pretty good backdrop to invest in a company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以，这对于投资一家公司来说是一个非常好的背景。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the company basically owns a third of the global recorded music, the most dominant sort of market share in the business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而这家公司基本上拥有全球录制音乐三分之一的份额，是这个行业中最具统治地位的市场份额。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They're the best at taking an artist who's 18 years old, who's got a great voice and has started to get a presence on YouTube and Instagram and helping that artist become a superstar, and that's a unique talent.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们最擅长发掘一个18岁、嗓音极佳、且已经在YouTube和Instagram上崭露头角的艺术家，并帮助这个艺术家成为超级巨星，这是一种独特的才能。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the result is the best artists in the world wanna come work for them, but they also have this incredible library of the Beatles, the Rolling Stones, U2, et cetera.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 结果就是，世界上最顶级的艺术家都想来为他们工作，而且他们还拥有披头士（the Beatles）、滚石乐队（the Rolling Stones）、U2等令人难以置信的曲库。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then if you think about what music has become used to be about records and CDs and eight track tapes for those of whom, and it was about a new format and that's how they drive sales.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后，如果你回想一下音乐曾经是什么样子——曾经是黑胶唱片、CD，以及对于某些人来说的八轨磁带，它关乎一种新的格式，而这正是他们过去推动销售的方式。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it's become a business which is like the podcast business about streaming.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而现在它已经变成了一门类似播客业务的生意，关乎流媒体（streaming）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And streaming is a lot more predictable than selling records, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而流媒体比卖唱片要可预测得多，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You can sort of say, okay, how many people have smartphones?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你大可以说，好吧，有多少人拥有智能手机？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: How many people are gonna have smartphones next year?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 明年会又有多人拥有智能手机？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: There's a kind of global penetration over time of smartphones and you pay, call it 10, 11 bucks a month for a subscription or last for a family plan.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 随着时间的推移，智能手机在全球有一种渗透率，然后你每个月支付大约10块、11块钱来订阅，或者为家庭套餐买单。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you can kind of build a model of what the world looks like and predict the growth of the streaming business, predict what kind of market share Universal's gonna have over time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这样你就可以建立一个关于世界运转模式的模型，并预测流媒体业务的增长，预测环球音乐随着时间推移将占据多少市场份额。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you can't get to a precise view of value.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 虽然你无法得出一个极其精确的价值估算。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You can get to an approximation.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但你可以得到一个近似值。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the key is to buy at a price that represents a big discount to that approximation.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而关键就在于，以一个相对于这个近似值有巨大折扣的价格进行买入。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that gets back to Ben Graham.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这就又回到了本·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）的理论。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Ben Graham was about what he called, invented this concept of margin of safety, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 本·格雷厄姆关注他所谓的、也是他发明的一个概念——安全边际（margin of safety），对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You wanna buy a company at a price that if you're wrong about what you think it's worth and it turns out to be worth 30% less you paid a deep enough discount to your estimate that you're still okay.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你想以这样一个价格买入一家公司：如果事实证明你对它价值的判断是错的，它其实比你认为的少值30%，由于你支付的价格相对于你的估算有足够深的折扣，你依然安然无恙。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's about investing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这就是关于投资。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: A big part of investing is not losing money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 投资的很大一部分在于不亏钱。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: If you can avoid losing money and then have a few great hits, you can do very, very well over time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你能避免亏钱，然后再命中几个极佳的投资，随着时间的推移，你会做得非常非常好。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Well, music is interesting 'cause yes, music's been around for a very long time, but the way to make money from music has been evolving.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 嗯，音乐很有趣，因为是的，音乐已经存在了很长一段时间，但从音乐中赚钱的方式一直在演变。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Like you mentioned streaming, there's a big transition initiated by, I guess Napster then created Spotify of how you make money on music with Apple and with all of this.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 就像你提到的流媒体，产生了一次巨大的转变——我猜是由Napster发起的，然后催生了Spotify，改变了通过苹果（Apple）以及所有这些平台在音乐上赚钱的方式。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And the question is, how well are companies like UMG able to adjust to such transformations?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么问题是，像环球音乐集团（UMG）这样的公司能够多好地适应这种转型？
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: One, I could ask you about the future, which is artificial intelligence being able to generate music, for example.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 第一，我可以问你关于未来的事情，例如能够生成音乐的人工智能（AI）。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: There have been a lot of amazing advancements with, so do you have to also think about that?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 这方面已经取得了许多令人惊叹的进展，所以你也必须考虑到这一点吗？
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Like when you close your eyes, all the things you think about, are you imagining the possible ways that the future's completely different from the present and how well this company will be able to surf the wave of that?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 比如当你闭上眼睛时，你脑海里思考的所有事情中，是否会想象未来与现在完全不同的可能方式，以及这家公司能在多大程度上驾驭这股浪潮？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sure. And they've had to surf a lot of waves.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然。而且他们已经不得不驾驭过许多次浪潮了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And actually the music business peaked the last time in like the late '90s or 2000 timeframe.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上，音乐产业上一次达到顶峰大约是在90年代末或2000年左右。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that really innovation, Napster digitization of music almost killed the industry.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而那一次真正的创新——Napster对音乐的数字化，几乎毁掉了这个行业。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And Universal really led an effort to save the industry and actually made an early deal with Spotify that enabled the industry to really recover.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但环球音乐真正领导了拯救行业的努力，实际上他们早早地与Spotify达成了一项协议，使整个行业得以真正复苏。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so by virtue of their market position and their credibility and their willingness to kind of adopt new technologies, they've kept their position.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因此，凭借他们的市场地位、信誉以及愿意采用新技术的意愿，他们保住了自己的位置。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now they of course had this huge advantage. 'Cause I think the Beatles are forever.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 现在，他们当然拥有这个巨大的优势。因为我认为披头士是永恒的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think U2 is forever. I think Rolling Stones are forever.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为U2是永恒的。我认为滚石乐队是永恒的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So they had a nice base of assets that were important and I think will forever be, and forever is a long time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他们拥有一个很好的重要资产基础，而且我认为这些资产将永远重要，而“永远”是一段很长的时间。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But you know, again, there's enormous, there are all kinds of risks in every business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但是你知道的，话说回来，这其中是巨大的，每门生意都存在各种各样的风险。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: This is one that I think has a very high degree of persistence.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我认为这是一门具有极高持久度（persistence）的生意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I can't envision a world where beyond streaming in a sense, now you may have a Neuralink chip in your head instead of a phone, but the music can come in a digitized kind of format.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我无法设想一个超越流媒体的世界，某种意义上，也许未来你脑袋里会植入一块Neuralink芯片而不是拿一部手机，但音乐依然可以以数字化的格式传输。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You're gonna wanna have an infinite library that you can walk around in your pocket or in your brain.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你会想要拥有一个无限的曲库，可以揣在你的口袋里或装在你的大脑里四处走动。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's not gonna matter that much if the form factor, the device changes, it's not really that important whether it's Spotify or Apple or Amazon that are the so-called DSPs or the providers.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果外形尺寸或设备发生改变，这并没有那么重要；究竟是Spotify、苹果还是亚马逊成为所谓的DSP（数字服务提供商）或供应商，其实也没有那么重要。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think the values really gonna reside in the content owners, and that's really the artists and the label.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为真正的价值将驻留在内容所有者身上，也就是艺术家和唱片公司。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And I actually think AI is not going to be the primary creator of music.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 而且我实际上认为，AI不会成为音乐的主要创造者。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I think we're going to actually face the reality that it's not that music has been around for a thousands of years, but musicians and music has been around.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我认为我们实际上将面对一个现实：流传数千年的不仅仅是音乐，而是音乐家和音乐并存。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Like we actually care to know who's the musician that created it.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 就像我们实际上很在乎知道，是哪位音乐家创作了这首曲子。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Just like we wanna know that who's the artist, human artists that created a piece of art.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 这就如同我们想知道，是哪位艺术家、哪位人类艺术家创作了这件艺术品。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I totally agree.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我完全同意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I think if you think about it there's other lots of other technologies and computers that have been used to generate music over time, but no one falls in love with a computer generated track, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我觉得如果你仔细想想，随着时间的推移，还有许多其他的技术和计算机被用来生成音乐，但没有人会爱上一首计算机生成的曲目，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you know, Taylor Swift, you know incredible music, but it's also about the artist and her story and her physical presence and the live experience.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且你知道的，泰勒·斯威夫特（Taylor Swift），你知道她的音乐极其出色，但这也关乎艺术家本人、她的故事、她的亲临现场以及现场演出的体验。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I don't think you're gonna sit there and someone's gonna put a computer up on stage and it's gonna play and people are gonna get excited around it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我不认为你会坐在那里，看着有人把一台电脑放在舞台上播放，然后周围的人会为此兴奋不已。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I think AI is really gonna be a tool to make artists better artists and I think like a synthesizer, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我认为AI实际上将会是一个工具，让艺术家成为更好的艺术家，就像合成器一样，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Really created the opportunity for one man to have an orchestra.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 它真正创造了一个人就能拥有一支管弦乐队的机会。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Maybe a bit of a threat to a percussionist, but maybe not, maybe it drove even more demand for the live experience.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 也许这对打击乐手来说是个小小的威胁，但也可能不是，也许它反而推动了人们对现场体验产生更多的需求。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Unless that computer has human-like sentience, which I believe is a real possibility.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 除非那台计算机拥有类似人类的感知能力（sentience），我相信这是一个真实的可能。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: But then it's really from a business perspective no different than a human.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 但如果是那样的话，从商业的角度来看，它与人类其实并没有什么不同。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: If it has an identity that's basically fame and an influence and there'll be a robot Taylor Swift and it doesn't really matter--
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 如果它拥有一个代表着名气和影响力的身份，也许会出现一个机器人版的泰勒·斯威夫特，而这其实也无所谓——
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: That's a copyrightable asset I would think.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我想那会是一项可拥有版权的资产。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And then there'll be--
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 然后还会出现——
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'm not sure that's the world I'm excited about.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我不太确定那是我所期待的世界。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Well, that's a different discussion.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 好吧，那是另一个话题了。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: The world is not gonna ask your permission to become what it's becoming but you could still make money on it.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 这个世界在演变成它应有的样子时，是不会征求你的同意的，但你依然可以在这上面赚钱。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Presumably there'd be a capital system and there'd be some laws under which, which I believe AI systems will have rights that are akin to human rights and we're gonna have to contend with what that means.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 大概率会有一个资本系统，也会有一些法律，根据这些法律，我相信AI系统将会拥有类似于人类权利的权利，而我们将不得不去应对这意味着什么。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Well there's sort of name and likeness rights that have to be protected now.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 嗯，现在已经有了那种必须受到保护的姓名和肖像权。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Can a name be attributed to a Tesla robot?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 一个名字能归属于一个特斯拉机器人吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I don't know.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我不知道。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I think so.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我觉得可以。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I think it's quite obvious to me.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我认为这对我来说显而易见。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Okay, so those are more potential artists for us to represent at Universal.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 好的，所以对于我们在环球音乐来说，那些将是我们可以代理的更多潜在艺术家。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Exactly. Exactly.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 正是如此。完全正确。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: That's sort of one example.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这算是一个例子。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Another example could be just the restaurant industry.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 另一个例子可能就是餐饮业。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: If you can look at businesses like a McDonald's, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你可以看看像麦当劳（McDonald's）这样的企业，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's a whatever the company's like a 1950 vintage business and here we are 75 years later and you can kind of predict what it's gonna look like over time and the menu's gonna adjust over time to consumer tastes but I think the hamburger and fries is probably forever.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 不管这是一家起源于1950年代的复古企业还是怎样，现在75年过去了，你可以大致预测随着时间的推移它会变成什么样，菜单会随着时间根据消费者的口味进行调整，但我认为汉堡和薯条大概率是永恒的。
📝 本节摘要：
本章中，阿克曼详细分享了他对墨西哥快餐连锁品牌 Chipotle 的尽职调查全过程：从阅读SEC文件、研究管理层过往言论，到利用专家网络进行深入分析。他提出，最优质的企业应当具备可预见的长期增长、充沛的现金流和难以逾越的竞争壁垒（护城河）。然而，好公司往往价格高昂，因此他的投资策略是寻找那些遭遇短期危机（如Chipotle的食品安全风波）、股价大跌但基本面依然可修复的伟大企业。此外，两人还探讨了餐饮特许经营的核心在于“系统化”运作，以及抗衡科技颠覆的商业韧性。最后段落里，Lex分享了自己只吃快餐汉堡肉饼的“纯肉饮食法”，阿克曼则幽默地顺势为他投资的汉堡王（Burger King）打起了广告。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: The Beetles, the Rolling Stones, the hamburger and fries are forever. I was eating at Chipotle last night as I was preparing these notes (laughs)
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 披头士、滚石乐队、汉堡和薯条是永恒的。我昨晚在准备这些笔记的时候就在吃Chipotle（笑）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Thank you.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 谢谢你。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And yeah, it is one of my favorite places to eat. You said it is a place that you eat, well, you obviously also invest in it. What do you get at Chipotle?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 是的，那是我最喜欢吃饭的地方之一。你说那也是你吃饭的地方，嗯，显然你也投资了它。你在Chipotle一般点什么？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I tend to get a double chicken.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我通常会点双份鸡肉。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Bowl or burrito?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 碗装的还是墨西哥卷饼（burrito）？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I like the burrito, but I generally try to order the bowl, cut the carb.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我喜欢墨西哥卷饼，但我通常会尽量点碗装的，减少碳水化合物摄入。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: For health reasons. Alright.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 为了健康原因。好的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And double chicken, guac, lettuce, black beans.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 双份鸡肉、牛油果酱（guac）、生菜和黑豆。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And I'm more of a steak guy. Just putting that on the record. What's the actual process you go through? Like literally like the process of figuring out what the value of a company is? Like how do you do the research? Is it reading documents? Is it talking to people? How do you do it?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 而我更偏爱牛排。先把这事儿记录在案。你实际经历的流程是怎样的？我是说，字面上那种搞清楚一家公司价值的流程？你究竟是如何做研究的？是阅读文件吗？是找人交谈吗？你是怎么做的？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's all the above. So Chipotle, what attracted us initially is the stock price dropped by about 50%. Great company, great concept, you know athletes love it. Consumers love it. Healthy, sustainable fresh food made in front of your eyes.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 以上皆是。以Chipotle为例，最初吸引我们的是它的股价下跌了大约50%。一家伟大的公司，极佳的理念，你知道运动员们喜欢它。消费者们喜欢它。健康、可持续的生鲜食品，就在你眼前制作。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And great Steve Ells, the founder did an amazing job, but ultimately the company's lacking some of the systems and had a food safety issue. Consumers got sick, almost killed the rent.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且了不起的创始人史蒂夫·埃尔斯（Steve Ells）做得很出色，但归根结底，这家公司缺乏一些系统机制，并且出现过食品安全问题。消费者吃病了，几乎毁掉了这个品牌（注：原文rent疑为brand转录错误）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But the reality of the fast food quick service industry is almost every fast food company has had a food safety issue over time, and the vast majority have survived.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但快餐服务行业的现实是，随着时间的推移，几乎每一家快餐公司都曾出现过食品安全问题，而绝大多数都挺了过来。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we said, look, it's such a great concept, but their approach was not, it was far from my deal, but we start with usually reading the SEC filing. So companies file a 10 k or an annual report, they file these quarterly reports called 10 Qs.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们当时说，看，这是一个极好的理念，但他们的方法不行，远非理想（注：原文my deal疑为ideal转录错误），但我们通常从阅读美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件开始。公司会提交 10-K 表格或年度报告，还会提交称为 10-Q 的季度报告。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They have a proxy statement which describes kinda the governance, the board structure, conference call transcripts are publicly available. It's kind of very helpful to go back five years and kinda learn the story.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们有委托声明书（proxy statement），其中描述了公司治理和董事会结构，而且电话会议的文字记录都是公开的。回溯过去五年的记录去了解它的故事，是非常有帮助的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know here's how management describes their business, here's what they say they're gonna do, and you can follow along to see what they do. It's like a historical record of how competent and truthful they are. It's a very useful device.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道这是管理层如何描述他们业务的，这是他们说他们将要做的，然后你可以跟踪观察他们实际做了什么。这就像一份历史记录，展示了他们有多么胜任和诚实。这是一个非常有用的工具。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then of course looking at competitors and thinking about what could dislodge this company? And then we'll talk to, if it's an industry we don't know well we know the restaurant industry really well, music industry, we'll talk to people in the industry.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 接下来当然是观察竞争对手，思考什么能够取代这家公司？然后我们会去交谈，如果这是一个我们不太了解的行业——我们对餐饮业非常了解，但比如音乐产业——我们会和那个行业里的人交谈。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We'll try to understand the difference between publishing and recorded music. We'll look at the competitors, we'll talk to... We'll read books. I read a book about the music industry or a couple books about the industry. So it's a bit like a big research project.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们会尝试理解音乐出版和录制音乐之间的区别。我们会研究竞争对手，我们会和别人谈话……我们会读书。我读过一本关于音乐产业的书，或者说是两本关于该行业的书。所以这有点像一个大型研究项目。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And there are these so-called expert networks now and you can get pretty much anyone on the phone and they'll talk to you about an aspect of the industry that you don't understand, wanna learn more about, try to get a sense.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且现在有这些所谓的“专家网络”，你几乎可以给任何人打电话，他们会跟你谈论这个行业中你不了解、想要深入学习的某个方面，试着让你建立一种认知。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Public filings of companies generally give you a lot of information but not everything you wanna know. And you can learn more by talking to experts about some of the industry dynamics, the personalities.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 公司的公开文件通常会给你提供很多信息，但并不是你想知道的一切。你可以通过与专家讨论某些行业动态及个人特质来了解更多。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You wanna get a sense of management. I like watching podcasts. If a CEO were to do a podcast or a YouTube interview, you get a sense of the people.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你会想了解一下管理层。我喜欢看播客。如果一位CEO做了播客或YouTube访谈，你就能对这些人有所感觉。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So in the case of Chipotle, for example, by the way, I could talk about Chipotle all day. I just love it. I love it. I wish there was a sponsor. (both chuckling)
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么以Chipotle为例，顺便说一下，我可以聊一整天Chipotle。我就是爱它。我爱它。真希望这里有个赞助。（两人轻笑）
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'll mention it to the CEO.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我会和他们的CEO提一下这事的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Don't make promises you can't keep Bill.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 比尔，别做你兑现不了的承诺。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'm not making, I can't. Brian Nichols a fantastic CEO, he's not gonna spend $1 that he doesn't think its the company's best interest.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我没有承诺，我给不了承诺。布莱恩·尼科尔斯（Brian Nichols）是一位出色的CEO，他不会花哪怕一美元在他认为不符合公司最大利益的地方。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: All right. All I want is free Chipotle, come on now. What was I saying? Oh, and so you look at a company like Chipotle and then you see there's a difficult moment in its history like you said that there was a food safety issue.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 好吧。我想要的只是一顿免费的Chipotle，拜托。我刚才说到哪了？哦，所以你看着像Chipotle这样的公司，然后你看到在它的历史上有一个艰难时刻，就像你说的食品安全问题。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And then you say, okay, well I see a path where we can fix this and therefore even though the price is low, we can get it to where the price goes up to its value.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 然后你说，好吧，我看到了一条我们可以修复这个问题的路径，因此尽管它的价格很低，我们可以让它回归到它的价值。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So the kind of business we're looking for is sort of the kind of business everyone should be looking for, right? A great business. It's got a long-term trajectory of growth out into you know even beyond the foreseeable distance. Those are the kinda businesses you wanna own.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们在寻找的生意，某种程度上正是每个人都应该寻找的那种生意，对吧？一门极好的生意。它有着一条长期的增长轨迹，延伸到你知道的甚至超越可预见未来的距离。这些正是你想要拥有的企业。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You want businesses that generate a lot of cash. You want businesses you can easily understand. You want businesses with these sort of huge barriers to entry where it's difficult for others to compete.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你想要能产生大量现金的生意。你想要你容易理解的生意。你想要带有这种巨大准入壁垒、让其他人难以竞争的生意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You want companies that don't have to constantly raise capital. And these are some of the great business of the world, but people have figured out that those are the great businesses.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你想要不需要不断筹集资金的公司。这些是世界上一些伟大的生意，但人们也已经弄清楚了它们是伟大的生意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So the problem is those companies tend to have very high stock prices and the value is generally built into the price you have to pay for the business. So we can't earn the kind of returns we wanna earn for investors by paying a really high price. Price matters a lot.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以问题在于，这些公司往往有很高的股价，而它的价值通常已经包含在你必须为这家企业支付的价格中了。因此，如果我们支付一个极高的价格，我们就无法为投资者赚取我们想要赚取的那种回报。价格非常重要。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You can buy the best business in the world and if you overpay, you're not gonna earn particularly attractive returns.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你可能买下了世界上最好的生意，但如果你支付了过高的价格，你是赚不到特别有吸引力的回报的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we get involved in cases where a great business has kind of made a big mistake or you've a company that's kinda lost its way, but it's recoverable.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们会介入这样一些案例：一家伟大的企业犯下了一个大错误，或者你遇到了一家迷失方向的公司，但它是可以修复的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we buy from shareholders who are disappointed, who've lost confidence selling at a low price relative to what it's worth if fixed and then we try to be helpful in fixing the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们从那些感到失望、失去信心的股东手中买入，相对于公司被修复后的价值而言，我们以一个很低的价格买入，然后我们努力协助修复这家公司。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: You said that barriers to entry, you said a lot of really interesting qualities of companies very quickly in a sequence of statements that took like less than 10 seconds to say, but some of them were fascinating, all of them were fascinating.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你提到了准入壁垒，你在不到10秒的连珠炮般的话语中，迅速说出了公司许多极其有趣的特质，其中一些令人着迷，全都很令人着迷。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So you said barriers to entry. How do you know if there's a type of moat protecting the competitors from stepping up to the play?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以你提到了准入壁垒。你如何知道是否存在某种护城河，能够阻止竞争对手入场角逐？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The most difficult analysis to do as an investor is kind of figuring out how wide is the moat, how much at risk is the business to disruption?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 作为一名投资者，最难做的分析就是弄清楚护城河有多宽，以及这家企业面临被颠覆的风险有多大？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we're in, I would say the greatest period of disruptive ability in history, right? Technology, you know, a couple of 19 year olds can leave whatever university or maybe they didn't even go in the first place.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我敢说，我们正处于历史上最具颠覆能力的时期，对吧？科技方面，你知道的，几个19岁的年轻人可以离开任何一所大学，或者可能一开始连大学都没上。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They can raise millions of dollars. They can get access to infinite bandwidth storage. They can contract with engineers in low cost markets around the world. They could build a virtual company and they can disrupt businesses that seem super established over time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们可以筹集数百万美元。他们可以获得无限的带宽和存储。他们可以与全球低成本市场的工程师签约。他们可以建立一家虚拟公司，并且可以颠覆那些长期以来看似极其稳固的企业。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then on top of that, you have major companies with multi-trillion dollar market caps working to find profits wherever they can. And so that's a dangerous world in a way to be an investor.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 除此之外，你还有那些市值高达数万亿美元的大公司，在尽可能地到处寻找利润。因此，在某种程度上，对投资者来说这是一个危险的世界。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so you wanna, you have to find businesses that it's hard to foresee a world in which they get disrupted.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以你想要、你必须找到那些很难预见到它们会被颠覆的商业模式。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the beauty of the restaurant business, and we've actually, our best track record is in restaurants. We've never lost money. We've only made a fortune interestingly, investing restaurants.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而餐饮业的美妙之处在于——实际上我们在餐饮业有着最好的业绩记录。我们从未亏过钱。有趣的是，我们在投资餐厅上只赚了一大笔。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: A big part of, it's a really simple business. And if you get Chipotle right and you're at a hundred stores it's not so hard to envision getting to 200 stores and then getting to 500 stores, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 很大一部分原因在于，这是一门非常简单的生意。如果你在Chipotle做得对，并且你有一百家店，你是不难想象开到200家店，然后再开到500家店的，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the key is maintaining the brand image, growing intelligently, having the right systems and when you go from 100 stores to 3,500 stores, you have to know what you're doing. And there's a lot of complexity, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 关键是维持品牌形象，明智地扩张，拥有正确的系统，当你从100家门店扩张到3500家时，你必须清楚自己在做什么。这里面存在很多复杂性，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: If you think about your local restaurant, the family's working in the business, they're watching the cash register and you can probably open another restaurant across town. But there are very few restaurant operators that own more than a few restaurants and operate them successfully.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你回想一下你当地的餐馆，一家人都在店里干活，他们盯着收银机，你也许可以在城镇另一边再开一家。但很少有餐饮经营者能够拥有几家以上的餐厅并成功运营它们。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the quick service business is about systems and building a model that a stranger who doesn't know the restaurant industry can come in and enter the business and build a successful franchise.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而快餐服务业务关乎建立系统和构建一个模型，让一个不懂餐饮业的陌生人也能走进来，进入这门生意，并建立一个成功的特许经营店。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now, Chipotle's not a franchise company, they actually own all their own stores, but many of the most successful restaurant companies are franchise models like a Burger King, a McDonald's, Tim Horton's, you know, all these various brands, Popeye's.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 现在，Chipotle不是一家特许经营公司，他们实际上拥有所有的直营门店，但许多最成功的餐饮公司都是特许经营模式，比如汉堡王（Burger King）、麦当劳、Tim Horton's，你知道的，所有这些不同的品牌，还有Popeye's。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And there it's about systems, but the same systems apply whether you own all the stores and it's run by a big corporation or whether the owners of the restaurants are sort of franchisees, you know, local entrepreneurs.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这些都是关于系统，但同样的系统既适用于你拥有所有门店并由一家大公司运营，也适用于那些餐厅老板是某种特许经营者，也就是你知道的当地企业家。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So if the restaurant has scaled to a certain number that means they've figured out some kind of system that works and it's very difficult to develop that kind of system, so that's a moat.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以如果餐厅扩张到了一定的数量，意味着他们已经弄清楚了某种行之有效的系统，而开发这种系统是非常困难的，因此那就是一道护城河。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: A moat is you get to a certain scale and you do it successfully. And the brand is now understood by the consumer.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 护城河就是你达到了一定规模，并且你做得非常成功。此时品牌已经被消费者所理解。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And what's interesting about Chipotle is what they've achieved is difficult, right? They're not buying frozen hamburgers getting shipped in. They're buying fresh sustainably sourced ingredients, preparing food in the store. That was a first, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而Chipotle有趣的地方在于他们所取得的成就是非常困难的，对吧？他们不是去买运进来的冷冻汉堡。他们买的是可持续来源的生鲜食材，并在店里准备食物。这是史无前例的，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The quality of the product at Chipotle is incredible, it's the highest quality food you can get for, you can get a serious dinner for under 20 bucks and eat really healthfully and very high quality ingredients, and that's just not available anywhere else.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: Chipotle产品的质量令人难以置信，那是你能获得的最优质的食物，花不到20美元你就能吃上一顿正经的晚餐，而且吃得极其健康，食材质量极高，这在其他任何地方都是找不到的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it's very hard to replicate and to build those relationships with farmers around the country. It's a lot easier to make a deal with one of the big massive food producers and buy your pork from them than to buy from a whole bunch of farmers around the country.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这是极难复制的，极难去和全国各地的农场主建立起那些联系。比起从全国各地一大群农场主那里采购，与其中一家大型食品生产商达成协议并从他们那里购买猪肉要容易得多。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so that is a big moat for Chipotle. Very difficult to replicate.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以这对Chipotle来说是一道巨大的护城河。极难复制。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And by the way, another company I think you have a steak is McDonald's?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 顺便问一句，我想你在另一家公司也有股份（stake，发音同steak/牛排），是麦当劳吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: No, we own a company called Restaurant Brands. Restaurant Brands owns a number of quick service companies, one of which is Burger King.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 不，我们拥有一家叫做餐饮品牌国际（Restaurant Brands）的公司。它旗下拥有多家快餐服务公司，其中一家是汉堡王。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Burger King?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 汉堡王？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Okay, well it's been a meme for a while, but burger King is great too, Wendy's whatever, but usually I go McDonald's, I'll just eat burger patties. I don't know if you knew you could do this but a burger patty at Burger King can do this, McDonald's, it's actually way cheaper.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 好的，这成梗有一段时间了，不过汉堡王也很棒，Wendy's或者其他什么都行，但我通常去麦当劳，我只吃汉堡肉饼。我不知道你是否了解这个操作，但在汉堡王或麦当劳买个肉饼其实要便宜得多。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They'll just sell you the patty.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们可以直接把肉饼卖给你。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: The patty and it's cheap. It's like a $1.50 or $2 for per patty and it's about 250 calories and it's just meat. And despite like the criticism of memes out there, that's--
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 只买肉饼，而且很便宜。大约1.5美元或2美元一个，大概250卡路里，全都是肉。尽管外面有那些梗在批评它，那还是——
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Pretty healthy stuff.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 相当健康的东西。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: It's healthy stuff. And so when I go... The healthiest I feel is when I do carnivore, it doesn't sound healthy, but if I eat only meat, I feel really good. I lose weight, I have all this energy. It's crazy. And when I'm traveling the easiest way to get meat is that.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 它很健康。所以当我去的时候……我感觉最健康的状态是我坚持纯肉饮食（carnivore）的时候，听起来不太健康，但如果我只吃肉，我感觉非常好。我体重减轻了，精力充沛。简直不可思议。当我在旅行时，最简单的吃肉方式就是那样。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Is you go to McDonald's, you order six patties.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 就是你去麦当劳，点六块肉饼。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Exactly. So there's this sad meme of me just sitting alone in a car when I'm traveling, just eating beef patties at McDonald's. But I love it. And you gotta do what you love, what makes you happy, and that's what makes me happy.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 没错。所以有个很惨的梗是，我在旅行时独自坐在车里，就在那儿吃麦当劳的牛肉饼。但我爱它。你必须做你热爱的事，做让你开心的事，而这让我感到开心。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think we should maybe we'll have Burger King feature in it. What about Flame World? What's with these fried burgers? We gotta get you to Burger King grilled burgers.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我觉得我们也许该让汉堡王也加入进来。那种炭火明烤（Flame World，指代汉堡王的特色）怎么样？那些煎出来的汉堡有什么好的？我们得带你去吃汉堡王的明火烤汉堡。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Wait, is this like fast food trash? I didn't know. I don't know the details of how they're made. I don't have allegiance.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 等一下，这算快餐垃圾话吗？我之前不知道。我不清楚它们具体是怎么制作的。我没有什么忠诚度偏好。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think we got a chance to switch you to Burger King.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我想我们有机会把你转移到汉堡王的阵营里来。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Great. We'll see. I'm making so many deals today, it's wonderful.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 太好了。走着瞧。我今天谈成了好多交易，这感觉真奇妙。
📝 本节摘要：
本章将讨论焦点转向科技巨头Alphabet（谷歌）。阿克曼剖析了在AI（尤其是ChatGPT）引发市场恐慌时，他为何选择重仓买入谷歌。他指出，谷歌的搜索业务已经成为一种“动词”，拥有极其强大的护城河与广告盈利能力。尽管微软的ChatGPT一度让市场认为谷歌落后，但阿克曼认为谷歌凭借海量训练数据、顶尖工程师和强大的财力，其AI能力甚至可能更胜一筹。此外，他还谈到了科技巨头在舒适区中变得“安于现状”（fat and happy）的现象，以及“耻辱感”与“自尊心”如何成为驱动谷歌重新找回战斗力、加速内部整合重组的巨大动力。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Okay, you were talking about moats and this kind of remind me of Alphabet, the parent company.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 好的，你刚才谈到了护城河，这让我想到了Alphabet，也就是谷歌的母公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sure. It's a big position for us.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然。那是我们的一个重仓股。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So it's interesting that you think that maybe Alphabet fits some of these characteristics. It's tricky to know with everything that's happening in AI, and I'm interviewing Sundar Pichai soon.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以很有趣的是，你认为也许Alphabet符合其中的一些特质。考虑到AI领域正在发生的一切，这其实很难判断，而且我很快就要采访桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai）了。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: It's interesting that you think that there's a moat. And it's also interesting to analyze that, 'cause the consumer is just a fan of technology.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 很有趣的是，你认为它存在护城河。去分析这一点也很有趣，因为消费者往往只是科技的粉丝。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Why is Google still around like they've been, it's not just a search engine, it's doing it all the basics of the business of search really well but they're doing all these other stuff.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 为什么谷歌还能像过去那样屹立不倒，它不仅仅是一个搜索引擎，它把搜索业务的所有基础都做得非常好，而且他们还在做所有这些其他的事情。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So what's your analysis of Alphabet? Why are you still positive about it?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么你对Alphabet的分析是什么？为什么你仍然看好它？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sure. So it's a business we've admired as a firm for whatever, 15 years, but rarely got to a price that we felt we could own it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然。作为一家投资公司，这是一门我们已经仰慕了大概15年的生意，但很少能遇到一个让我们觉得可以买入的价格。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Because again, the expectations were so high and price really matters.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因为话又说回来，期望值太高了，而价格真的非常重要。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And really the sort of AI scare I would call it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后真正出现了那种我称之为“AI恐慌”的局面。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know Microsoft comes out with Chat GPT, they do an amazing demonstration. People like this most incredible product.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，微软（Microsoft）推出了ChatGPT，他们做了一场令人惊叹的演示。人们喜欢这个极其不可思议的产品。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And Google, which had been working on AI even earlier, obviously the Microsoft was behind an AI.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而谷歌，其实更早就在研发AI了，很显然微软在AI领域原本是落后的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was really their chat GPT deal that gave them a kind of a market presence.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上正是他们关于ChatGPT的交易，让他们获得了一种市场存在感。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then Google does this fairly disastrous demonstration of Bard and the world says, oh my god, Google's fallen behind an AI.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 接着谷歌对Bard进行了一场相当灾难性的演示，然后全世界都在说，我的天哪，谷歌在AI领域落后了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: AI is the future. Stock gets crushed.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: AI是未来。于是股票被压垮了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Google gets to a price around 15 times earnings, which for a business of this quality is an extremely low price.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 谷歌跌到了大约15倍市盈率（earnings）的价格，对于这种质量的企业来说，这是一个极低的价格。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And our view on Google, one way to think about it when a business becomes a verb, that's usually pretty good sign about the mode around the business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我们对谷歌的看法是，有一种思考方式是：当一门生意变成了一个动词时，这通常是围绕这门生意的护城河（注：原文mode疑为moat转录错误）的一个非常好的信号。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So you'd open your computer and you open your search and very high percentage of the world starts with a Google page and a one line where you type in your search.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以你打开电脑，打开你的搜索，世界上极高比例的人都是从一个谷歌页面和一行让你输入搜索内容的输入框开始的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know the Google advertising search, YouTube franchise is one of the most dominant franchises in the world.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你要知道，谷歌的广告搜索、YouTube特许经营权（franchise）是世界上最具统治地位的特许经营权之一。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Very difficult to disrupt, extremely profitable.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 极难被颠覆，且极其赚钱。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The world is moving from offline advertising to online advertising and that trend I think continues. Why?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这个世界正在从线下广告向线上广告转移，我认为这一趋势还在继续。为什么呢？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Because you can actually see whether your ads work.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因为你真的能看到你的广告是否有效。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They used to say about advertising spend a fortune and you just don't know which 50% of it's works, but you just sort of spend the money 'cause you know, ultimately that's gonna bring in the customer.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们过去在谈论广告时总说，花了一大笔钱，你就是不知道其中哪50%起了作用，但你还是得花这笔钱，因为你知道这最终会带来客户。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And now with online advertising, you can see with granularity which dollars I'm spending.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而现在有了线上广告，你可以颗粒度极细地看到我花的每一美元去哪了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know when people click on the search term and end up buying something and I pay, it's a very high return on investment for the advertiser and they really dominate that business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，当人们点击搜索词并最终买下某个东西，然后我为此买单时，这对广告主来说是非常高的投资回报率，而他们真正主导了那门生意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now AI of course is a risk if all of a sudden people start searching or asking questions of Chat GPT and don't start with the Google search bar, that's a risk to the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然，现在AI是一个风险，如果突然之间人们开始向ChatGPT搜索或提问，而不再从谷歌搜索栏开始，这对这家公司来说就是一个风险。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so our view based on work we had done and talked to industry experts is that Google if anything had a, by virtue of the investment they've made, the time, the energy that people put into it, we felt their AI capabilities were if anything potentially greater than Microsoft Chat GPT and that the market had overreacted.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因此，基于我们所做的工作以及与行业专家的交流，我们的看法是：凭借他们所做的投资、投入的时间和精力，即使有什么的话，我们认为谷歌的AI能力也有可能比微软的ChatGPT更强大，是市场反应过度了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And because Google is a big company global business regulators scrutinized it incredibly carefully.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且因为谷歌是一家大公司，全球商业监管机构对它的审查极其严格。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They couldn't take some of the same liberties a startup like OpenAI did in releasing a product.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在发布产品时，他们无法像OpenAI这样的初创公司那样随心所欲。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I think Google took a more cautious approach in releasing an early version of Bard in terms of its capabilities.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为谷歌在发布早期版本Bard的功能时，采取了一种更为谨慎的策略。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that led the world to believe that they were behind.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这导致全世界都认为他们落后了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we ultimately concluded, if any they're tied or ahead and you're paying nothing for that potential business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我们最终得出的结论是，就算有差距，他们也是打平甚至领先的，而且你完全没有为那个极具潜力的业务支付任何溢价。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And they also have huge advantages by virtue.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 并且他们凭借实力也拥有巨大的优势。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: If you think of all the data Google has, like the search data, all the various applications, you know, email and otherwise the kinda the Google suite of products, it's an incredible data set.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你想想谷歌拥有的所有数据，比如搜索数据、所有各种应用软件，你知道的，电子邮件以及其他那些谷歌产品套件，那是一个不可思议的数据集。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So they have more training data than pretty much any company in the world.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他们拥有比世界上几乎任何公司都要多的训练数据。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They have incredible engineers, they have enormous financial resources so that was kind of the bet.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们有不可思议的工程师，他们有巨大的财务资源，所以这差不多就是我们的赌注。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we still think it's probably the cheapest of the big seven companies in terms of price you're paying for the business relative to its current earnings.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 就你为这家企业支付的价格相对于其当前收益而言，我们仍然认为它可能是“七巨头”中最便宜的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It also is a business that has a lot of potential for efficiency.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这同样是一门在提高效率方面拥有巨大潜力的生意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sometimes when you have this enormously profitable dominant company, all of the technology companies in the post March 20 world grew enormously in terms of their teams and they probably overhired.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 有时候，当你拥有这种极其赚钱的主导型公司时——在2020年3月之后的世界里，所有的科技公司在团队规模上都出现了极大的膨胀，他们可能过度招聘了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so you've seen some, the Facebooks of the world and now even Google starting to get a little more efficient in terms of their operation.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以你已经看到了一些情况，比如世界上的Facebook们，现在甚至连谷歌也开始在运营方面变得更有效率一点了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we bet a low multiple for the business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们押注这家企业有一个较低的估值倍数（multiple）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: One way to think about the value of the business is the price you pay for the earnings or alternatively what's the yield.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 思考这家企业价值的一种方式是，你为盈利支付的价格是多少，或者换个角度看，它的收益率（yield）是多少。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: If you flip over the price over the earnings, it gives you kind of the yield of the business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你把市盈率（价格除以收益）倒过来，就能得出这家企业的大致收益率。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So a 15 multiple is about almost a seven and a half percent yield and that earnings yield is growing over time as the business grows compare to what you can earn lending your money to the government, 4%, that's a very attractive going in yield.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因此，15倍的估值倍数差不多相当于近7.5%的收益率，而且随着业务的增长，这个盈利收益率会随时间不断增长。与你把钱借给政府能赚到的4%相比，这是一个非常有吸引力的初始收益率。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then there's all kinds of what we call optionality in all the various businesses and investments they've made that are losing money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 另外，在他们所做的各种目前处于亏损状态的业务和投资中，还存在各种我们称之为“可选性”（optionality/期权价值）的东西。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They've got a cloud business that's growing very rapidly, but they're investing basically 100% of the profits from that business and growth.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们有一项增长非常迅速的云业务，但他们基本上把那项业务100%的利润都重新投资于增长了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So you're in that earnings number, you're not seeing any earnings from the cloud business and you know, they're one of the top cloud players.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以你在那个盈利数字中，并没有看到来自云业务的任何盈利，而你知道，他们是顶级的云服务玩家之一。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So very interesting, generally well-managed company with incredible assets and resources and dominance, and it has no debt.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以这非常有趣，总的来说是一家管理良好、拥有不可思议资产、资源和统治力的公司，而且它没有负债。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's got a ton of cash. And so pretty good story.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 它有大量的现金。所以这是一个非常好的故事。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Is there something fundamentally different about AI that makes all of this more complicated, which is the sort of the exponential possibilities of the kinds of products and impact that AI could create when you're looking at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Google, all these companies, xAI or maybe startups, is there some more risk introduced by the possibilities of AI?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: AI是否存在一些根本上的不同，使得这一切变得更加复杂？当你在观察Meta、微软、Alphabet、谷歌、所有这些公司、xAI或者可能是初创公司时，AI所能创造的各种产品和影响的指数级可能性，是否引入了更多的风险？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Absolutely. That's a great question.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 绝对的。这是一个极好的问题。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know business investing is about finding companies that can't be disrupted.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，商业投资就是关于寻找那些无法被颠覆的公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: AI is the ultimate disruptable asset or technology.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而AI是终极的具颠覆性的资产或技术。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that's what makes investing treacherous is that you own a business that's enormously profitable.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而这正是让投资变得凶险的原因——你拥有一家极其赚钱的企业。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Management gets, if you will, fat and happy and then a new technology emerges that just takes away all their profitability.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 管理层变得，怎么说呢，“心宽体胖”、安于现状（fat and happy），然后一种新技术出现了，直接夺走了他们所有的盈利能力。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And AI is this incredibly powerful tool, which is why every business is saying, how can I use AI in my business to make us more profitable, more successful, grow faster and also disrupt or protect ourself from the incomings,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而AI就是这样一个极其强大的工具，这就是为什么每一家企业都在说：我该如何在我的业务中使用AI，让我们变得更赚钱、更成功、增长更快，同时颠覆他人或者保护我们自己免受外敌入侵，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's a bit like, you know, Buffett talks about a great business like a castle surrounded by this really wide moat, but you have all these barbarians trying to get in and steal the princess and it happens.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这有点像，你知道的，巴菲特在谈论一门极好的生意时，就像是一座被极宽护城河环绕的城堡，但你总会面临所有这些野蛮人试图闯入并抢走公主的情况，而且这种事确实会发生。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, Kodak for example, was an amazing, incredibly dominant company until it disappeared.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，以柯达（Kodak）为例，它曾是一家令人惊叹、极具统治力的公司，直到它消失。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Polaroid, this incredible technology and that's why we have tended to stay away from companies that are technology companies.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 宝丽来（Polaroid），那项不可思议的技术。这也是为什么我们过去倾向于远离那些科技公司的原因。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: 'Cause technology companies generally the world is such a dynamic place.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因为对科技公司来说，通常这个世界是一个如此充满动态变化的地方。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's one's always working on a better version.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 总有人在研发一个更好的版本。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you know, Kodak was caught up in the analog film world and then the world changed.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 结果你知道的，柯达陷入了模拟胶片世界无法自拔，然后世界变了。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Well, Google was pretty fat and happy until Chat GPT came out.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 嗯，在ChatGPT问世之前，谷歌也曾经相当“心宽体胖”且安于现状。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: How would you rate their ability to wake up, lose weight, and be less happy and aggressively rediscover their search for happiness?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你如何评价他们醒悟过来、甩掉赘肉、变得不再那么安逸，并积极重新寻找属于他们的“幸福”的能力？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think you've seen a lot of that in the last year and I would say some combination of embarrassment and pride are huge motivators for everyone from Sergey Brin, to the management of the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我想在过去一年里你已经看到了很多这方面的情况。我会说，耻辱感和自尊心的某种结合，对从谢尔盖·布林（Sergey Brin）到公司管理层的每个人来说，都是巨大的动力。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And Demis Hassabis has thrown 'em into the picture and all of DeepMind teams and the unification teams and like all the shakeups.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 德米斯·哈萨比斯（Demis Hassabis）把他们带入了局中，还有DeepMind的所有团队、整合团队，以及所有的这些重组。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: It was interesting to watch the chaos, I love it.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 看着这种混乱发生很有趣，我喜欢这样。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I love it when everybody freaks out, like you said, partly embarrassment and partly that competitive drive that drives engineers it was great, I can't wait to see what there've been just a lot of improvement in the product let's see where it goes.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 当所有人都惊慌失措时我喜欢这种感觉，就像你说的，部分是出于耻辱感，部分是那种驱动着工程师们的竞争欲望，这太棒了。我迫不及待地想看他们的产品已经取得了大量的改进，让我们看看它将走向何方。
📝 本节摘要：
本章重点探讨了企业管理层评估的核心标准以及顶级投资者必备的心理素养。阿克曼指出，“动机驱使人类行为”，评估管理层不仅要看他们的过往记录与言出必行的诚信度，更要看顶层领导者（尤其是CEO）的招募与建队能力。随后，他分享了从人生导师沃伦·巴菲特身上学到的宝贵经验——保持绝对的理性与情绪控制力（即“性情”）。阿克曼强调，在面对市场剧烈波动时，投资者必须克服人类本能，与“羊群效应”逆向而行。而保持冷静的底层逻辑，在于拥有充足的财务安全感（绝不借钱炒股），以及对所投企业基本面的深刻理解。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: You mentioned management, how do you analyze the governance structure and the individual humans that are the managers of a company?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你提到了管理层，你如何分析公司的治理结构以及作为公司管理者的个体人类？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So as I like to say, incentives drive all human behavior and that certainly applies in the business world.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 正如我常说的，动机（incentives）驱使着所有人类的行为，这在商业世界中绝对适用。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So understanding the people and what drives them and what the actual financial and other incentives of a business are very important part of the analysis for investing in a company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以，了解这些人以及驱动他们的是什么，了解一门生意实际的财务动机和其他动机是什么，是投资一家公司时非常重要的分析环节。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you can learn a lot. You know I mentioned before one great way to learn about a business is go back a decade and read everything that management has written about the business and see what they've done over time. See what they've said.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你能从中推测出很多东西。你知道我之前提到过，了解一家公司的一个好方法是回溯十年，阅读管理层关于这家企业写过的所有东西，看看他们随着时间推移都做了什么。看看他们说过什么。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Conference calls are actually relatively recent. When I started in the business, there weren't conference call transcripts.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 电话会议实际上是相对较近才有的事。当我刚入行时，并没有电话会议的文字记录。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now you have a written record of everything management has said in response to questions from analysts at conferences and otherwise.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 现在你拥有了管理层在会议或其他场合回答分析师提问时所说的一切的书面记录。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You learn a lot about people by listening to what they say, how they answer questions and ultimately their track record for doing what they say they're gonna do.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 通过倾听他们说什么、他们如何回答问题，以及最终他们是否言出必行的过往记录，你会对这些人有很深的了解。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Do they under promise and over deliver? Do they over promise and under deliver? Do they say what they're gonna do? Do they admit mistakes? Do they build great teams? Do people wanna come work for them or are they able to retain their talent?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们是承诺少而交付多吗？还是承诺多而交付少？他们说的和做的一致吗？他们承认错误吗？他们建立起优秀的团队了吗？人们愿意来为他们工作吗，或者他们能够留住人才吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then part of the is do they, how much are they running the business for the benefit of the business? How much are they running the business for the benefit of themselves? And that's kind of the analysis you do.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 接着有一部分是看他们，他们在多大程度上是为了企业的利益在运营企业？又在多大程度上是为了他们自己的利益在运营企业？这差不多就是你要做的分析。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Are we talking about CEO, COO? What does management mean? Oh, how deep does it go?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我们在说的是CEO、COO吗？管理层指的是什么？哦，这要考察到多深的层级？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sure. So this very senior management matters enormously.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然。可以说这种极高层的高管极其重要。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We used the Chipotle example, Steve Ell's great entrepreneur, business got to a scale he really couldn't run it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们拿Chipotle举例，史蒂夫·埃尔斯（Steve Ells）是一位伟大的企业家，但当企业发展到了某个规模时，他真的无法再驾驭它了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We recruited a guy named Brian, helped a company recruit a guy named Brian Nichol. And he was considered the best person in the quick service industry. He came in and completely rebuild the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们招募了一个叫布莱恩的人，帮助公司招募了一个叫布莱恩·尼科尔斯（Brian Nichols）的人。他被认为是快餐服务行业里最顶尖的人才。他进来后彻底重建了这家公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Actually we moved the company, Chipotle was moved to California. And sometimes one way to redo the culture of a company is just to move it geographically and then you can kind of reboot the business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上我们把公司搬了，Chipotle被搬到了加利福尼亚。有时候，重塑一家公司文化的一种方法，就是单纯在地理位置上对它进行搬迁，然后你就能在某种程度上重启这门生意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But a great leader has great followership, well over the course of their career they'll have a team they've built that will come follow them into the next opportunity.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但一位伟大的领导者拥有极佳的追随群体，在他们职业生涯的过程中，他们建立起的一支团队会跟随他们进入下一个机会。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But the key is, really the top person matters enormously and then it's who they recruit.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但关键在于，最顶层的那个人真的极其重要，然后就是看他们招募了谁。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know you recruit an A+ leader and they're gonna recruit other A type people. You recruit a B leader, you're not gonna recruit any great talent beneath them.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道的，你招募了一位 A+ 级别的领导者，他们就会去招募其他 A 类的人才。如果你招募了一位 B 级别的领导者，你是不可能在他们手下招募到任何顶尖人才的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: You mentioned Warren Buffett, you said you admire him as an investor. What do you find most interesting and powerful about his approach? What aspects of his approach to investing do you also practice?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你提到了沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett），你说你钦佩作为投资者的他。你觉得他的方法中最有趣、最强大的地方是什么？你在多大程度上也实践了他投资方法的哪些方面？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sure. So most of what I've learned in the investment business, I learned from Warren Buffett. He's been my great professor of this business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然。我在投资行业学到的大部分东西，都是从沃伦·巴菲特那里学来的。他一直是我在这个行业里的伟大导师（professor）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: My first book I read in the business was the Ben Graham "Intelligent Investor". But fairly quickly you get to learn about Warren Buffett and I started by reading the Berkshire Hathaway and reports.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我入行读的第一本书是本·格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。但很快你就会了解到沃伦·巴菲特，然后我开始阅读伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）的年度报告。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then I eventually got the buffet partnership letters that you can see, which are an amazing read to go back to the mid 1950s and read what he wrote to his limited partners when he first started out and just follow that trajectory over a long period of time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我最终拿到了你能看到的那些巴菲特合伙企业信件，那是非常奇妙的阅读体验，回到20世纪50年代中期，阅读他刚起步时写给他的有限合伙人的信，并在很长一段时间内去追踪那种轨迹。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So what's remarkable about him is one, duration, right? He still added it at '93, two, you know, it takes a very long-term view.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他的非凡之处在于：第一，持续时间（duration），对吧？他在93岁时依然在干；第二，你知道的，他采取一种极其长期的视角。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But a big thing that you learn from him, investing requires this incredible dispassionate on emotional quality. You have to be extremely economically rational, which is not a basic, it's not something you learn in the jungle.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但你从他身上学到的一件大事是，投资需要这种令人难以置信的、对情绪极度冷静（dispassionate）的素质。你必须在经济层面上极度理性，这并不是基础本能，这不是你在丛林里能学到的东西。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I don't think it's something that, you know, if you think about surviving the jungle the lion shows up and everyone starts running, you run with them. That does not work well in markets.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我不认为这是，你知道的，如果你想在丛林里生存下来，狮子出现了，大家都开始跑，你也就跟着跑。这在市场中是行不通的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: In fact, you generally have to do the opposite, right? When the lemmings are running over the cliff, that's the time where you're facing the other direction and you're running the other direction, i.e you're stepping in, you're buying stocks at really low prices.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 事实上，你通常必须反其道而行之，对吧？当旅鼠（lemmings，喻指盲从的羊群）正冲下悬崖时，那是你必须朝向相反方向并往回跑的时候，也就是说，你要介入进去，你要以极其低廉的价格买入股票。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Buffet's been great at that and great at teaching about what he calls temperament, which is this sort of emotional kind of or unemotional quality that you need to be able to dispassionately look at the world and say, okay, is this a real risk, are people overreacting?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 巴菲特在这方面极其出色，他在教授他所谓的“性情”（temperament）方面也极其出色，这就是这种你需要具备的、情绪化的或者说非情绪化的素质，让你能够冷静地看待世界并问自己：好吧，这是一个真实的风险，还是人们反应过度了？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: People tend to get excited about investments when stocks are going up and they get depressed when they're going down. And I think that's just inherently human.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 人们往往在股票上涨时对投资感到兴奋，而在股票下跌时感到沮丧。我认为这恰恰是人类固有的本性。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You have to reverse that. You have to get excited when things get cheaper and you gotta get concerned when things get more expensive.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你必须逆转这一点。当东西变得更便宜时，你必须感到兴奋；当东西变得更昂贵时，你必须感到担忧。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: You've been a part of some big battles, some big losses, some big wins. So it's been a rollercoaster.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你曾参与过一些大型战役、经历过一些巨大的亏损，也获得过一些巨大的胜利。所以这一路就像过山车一样。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So in terms of temperament psychologically, how do you not let that break you? How do you maintain a calm demeanor and avoid running with the lemmings?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么从心理素质和性情的角度来说，你如何不让那些击垮你？你如何保持冷静的风度并避免和那些“旅鼠”一起随波逐流？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think it's something you kind of learn over time. A key success factor is you wanna have enough money in the bank that you're gonna survive regardless of what's going on with volatility in markets.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为这在某种程度上是你随着时间推移学到的东西。一个关键的成功因素是：你想让银行里有足够的钱，这样无论市场波动如何，你都能生存下来。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: One, you shouldn't borrow money. So if you borrow money, you own stocks on margin, markets are going down and you have your livelihood at risk, it's very difficult to be rational.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 第一，你不应该借钱。所以如果你借钱，你通过保证金（margin，加杠杆）持有股票，市场在下跌，而你的生计正面临风险，你是很难保持理性的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So key is getting yourself to a place where you're financially secure, you're not gonna lose your house, right? That's a kind of a key thing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以关键是让自己处于一个财务安全（financially secure）的境地，你不会失去你的房子，对吧？这算是关键之一。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then also doing your homework, stock prices. Stocks can trade at any price in the short term.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 其次还要做好你的功课，关于股票价格。股票在短期内可以以任何价格交易。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And if you know what a business is worth and you understand the management, you know it extremely well, it doesn't bother you when a stock price goes down or it has much less impact on you because you know, again, as Mr. Graham said, you know, the short term, the market's a voting machine, you have a bunch of lemmings voting one direction that's concerning.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你知道一家企业值多少钱，并且你了解管理层，你对它极其了解，那么当股价下跌时这并不会困扰你，或者它对你的影响要小得多。因为你知道，再次引用格雷厄姆先生的话，短期内市场是一台投票机，你看到一群“旅鼠”朝着一个方向投票，这确实令人担忧。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But if it's a great business doesn't have a lot of debt and people are gonna just listen to more music next year than this year, you know you're gonna do well.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但如果这是一门极好的生意，没有太多负债，而且人们明年肯定会比今年听更多的音乐，你就知道你肯定会有好结果。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So it's a bit some combination of being personally secure and also just knowing what you own and over time you build calluses, I would say.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以这有点像是保持个人财务安全与仅仅知道你拥有什么的某种结合，随着时间的推移，我想说，你会长出老茧（变得百毒不侵）。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So psychologically, just as a human being speaking of lions and gazelle and all this kind of stuff. Is it as simple as just being financially secure? Is there some just human qualities that you have to be born with/develop?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么从心理上来说，仅仅作为一个人类，谈到狮子和瞪羚以及所有这类事情。真的像保持财务安全那么简单吗？是否存在一些你必须与生俱来或需要培养的人类品质？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think so. I think I'm a pretty emotional person I would say. Or I feel pretty strong emotions, but not in investing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我觉得是有的。我想说，我认为我是一个相当情绪化的人。或者说我会感受到相当强烈的情绪，但在投资中不会。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'm remarkably immune to kind of volatility and that's a big advantage and it took some time for me to develop that.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我对某种市场波动具有极其显著的免疫力，这是一个巨大的优势，而我花了一些时间才培养出这种能力。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So you weren't born with that, you think?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以你认为自己并不是天生就具备这种素质的？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: No.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 不是。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So being emotional, do you want to respond to volatility?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以作为一个情绪化的人，你会想对波动做出反应吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah. And you just, it's a bit... Again, you can learn a lot from other people's experience. It's one of the few businesses where you can learn an enormous amount by reading about other periods in history.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。你只是，这有点……再说一次，你可以从别人的经验中学到很多。这是少数几个你可以通过阅读历史上其他时期来学到海量知识的行业之一。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Following Buffet's career, the mistakes he made. If you're investing a lot of capital, every one of your mistakes can be big. So we've made big mistakes.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 追踪巴菲特的职业生涯，他犯过的错误。如果你投入了大量资金，你的每一个错误都可能是巨大的。所以我们也犯过大错。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The good news is that the vast majority of things we've done have worked out really well. And so that also gives you confidence over time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 好消息是，我们做过的绝大多数事情都取得了非常好的结果。因此随着时间推移，这也给了你信心。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But because we make very few investments, we own eight things today or seven companies of that matter, if we get one wrong, it's gonna be big news.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但因为我们做的投资非常少，我们今天只拥有八个项目，或者就此而言是七家公司，如果我们搞砸了一个，那将是个大新闻。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so the other nature of our business you have to be comfortable with a lot of public scrutiny, a lot of public criticism and that requires some experience. I call it that.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因此，我们这行的另一个本质是，你必须适应大量的公众审查和大量的公众批评，而那需要一些经验。我是这么称呼它的。
📝 本节摘要：
本章专门探讨了给普通（散户）投资者的理财建议。阿克曼强调了两个铁律：永远不要投资你亏不起的钱，绝对不要借钱（加杠杆）炒股。在投资工具选择上，他指出大多数共同基金因收费高昂且过度分散，表现往往不如直接购买指数基金。然而，他也鼓励普通投资者进行适度的“集中投资”——挑选大约十几个自己作为消费者能深刻理解、且没有大量负债的简单企业（如特斯拉或Chipotle）。阿克曼认为，在当今信息高度透明的时代，消费者对所热爱产品的直觉，往往比华尔街专业分析师更能精准把握一家公司的基本面；而关键仍在于保持长远目光，不被短期的市场波动影响生活质量。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I think we'll talk about some of that. Financially secure is something I believe also recommend for even just to everyday investors. Is there some general advice from the things you've been talking about that applies to everyday investors?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我想我们会谈到其中一些内容。保持财务安全，我相信这也是我会推荐给甚至仅仅是普通投资者的一点。从你刚才谈到的这些内容中，有没有什么适用于普通投资者的一般性建议？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sure. So never invest money you can't afford to lose where it would if you'd lost this money and you lose your house, et cetera.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然。首先，永远不要投资你亏不起的钱，如果亏了这笔钱会导致你失去你的房子等等。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Being in a place where you're investing money that you don't care about the price in the short term, you know it's money for your retirement and you take a really long term view, I think that's key.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 让自己处于这样一种状态：你投资的钱是让你不在乎短期价格波动的钱，你知道那是你用来养老的钱，并且你采取的是一种极其长期的视角，我认为这是关键。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Never investing, you borrow money against your securities?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 绝对不要在投资时，用你的证券做抵押去借钱？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know the markets offer you the opportunity to leverage your investment and in most worlds you'll be okay, except if there's a financial crisis or a nuclear device gets detonated, God forbid somewhere in the world, or there's a unexpected war or someone kills a leader unexpectedly.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，市场为你提供了给投资加杠杆（leverage）的机会，在大多数情况下你会安然无恙，除非发生金融危机，或者某个核装置被引爆——上帝保佑世界上千万别发生这种事，或者发生了一场意想不到的战争，或者有人意外刺杀了某位领导人。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Things happen that can change the course of history and markets react very negatively to those kinds of events.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 总有一些能改变历史进程的事件发生，而市场对这类事件的反应会非常负面。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you can own the greatest business in the world, trading for $100 a share and next moment it could be 50.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你可能拥有世界上最伟大的企业，以每股100美元交易，但下一刻它可能就会变成50美元。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So as long as you don't borrow against securities, you own really high quality businesses and it's not money that you need in the short term, then you can actually be thoughtful about it and that is a huge advantage.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以，只要你不拿证券抵押借钱，你拥有真正高质量的企业，而且这又不是你短期内急需的钱，那你实际上就能对此进行深思熟虑，这是一个巨大的优势。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The vast majority of investors it seems tend to be the ones that panic and the downturns get over elated when markets are doing well.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 看起来绝大多数投资者往往是那些在市场低迷时恐慌，而在市场表现好时又过度兴奋的人。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So be able to think long-term and be sufficiently financially secure such that you can afford to think long-term.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以要能够做长期思考，并拥有足够的财务安全感，这样你才有资本去进行长期思考。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah, Buffett is the ultimate long-term thinker and just the decisions he makes, the consistency of the decisions he's made over time and fitting into that sort of long-term framework is a very, very educational, let's put it that way for learning about this business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的，巴菲特是终极的长期思考者，看看他所做的决定、他随着时间推移做决定的连贯性，以及如何融入那种长期框架中，这些都是非常非常有教育意义的——就学习这门生意而言，姑且这么说吧。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So you mentioned eight companies, but what do you think about mutual funds for everyday investors that diversify across a larger number of companies?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你提到了只投八家公司，但对于普通投资者来说，你如何看待那种将资金分散投资于大量公司的共同基金（mutual funds）？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think there are very few mutual funds. There are thousands and thousands of mutual funds.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为极少有优秀的共同基金。市面上成千上万的共同基金。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: There are very few that earn their keep in terms of the fees they charge.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 就它们收取的费用而言，极少有哪家是物有所值的（earn their keep）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They tend to be too diversified and too short term.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 它们往往过度分散（diversified），而且太看重短期。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you're often much better off just buying an index fund.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以你通常最好直接买一只指数基金（index fund）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And many of them perform, if you look carefully their portfolios are not so different from the underlying index itself and you tend to pay a much higher fee.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 很多基金的表现，如果你仔细看它们的投资组合，和底层指数本身并没有太大区别，而你却往往要支付高得多的费用。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now, all of that being said, there's some very talented mutual fund managers, a guy named Will Danoff at Fidelity's had a great record over a long period of time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 话虽如此，也有一些非常有才华的共同基金经理，富达（Fidelity）有个叫威尔·丹诺夫（Will Danoff）的人在很长一段时间内保持了极佳的记录。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, the famous Peter Lynch, Ron Baron, another great long-term growth stock investor.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道的，还有著名的彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）、罗恩·巴伦（Ron Baron），另一位伟大的长期成长股投资者。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So there's some great mutual funds, but I put them in the handful versus the thousands.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以存在一些极好的共同基金，但我认为它们只是数以千计中的屈指可数。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And if you're in the thousands I'd rather someone bought just an index fund basically,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你要从那几千个里挑，我宁愿让人们直接买指数基金就好了，基本上就是这样。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Yeah, index funds. But what would be the leap for an everyday investor to go to investing in a small number of companies like two, three, four, five companies?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 是的，指数基金。但是对于一个普通投资者来说，去投资少数几家公司，比如两、三、四、五家公司，这种跨越会是怎样的？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I even recommend for individual investors to invest in a dozen companies.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我甚至建议个人投资者去投资大约十几家（a dozen）公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You don't get that much more benefit of diversification going from a dozen to 25 or even 50.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当你把投资标的从十几家增加到25家甚至50家时，你并不会从分散投资中获得那么多额外的好处。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Most of the benefits diversification come in the first, you know, call it 10 or 12.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 分散投资的大部分好处，在最开始的，你知道的，就说10到12家公司时就已经体现了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And if you're investing in businesses that don't have a lot of debt, they're businesses that you can understand yourself.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你投资的是那些没有大量负债的企业，且都是你自己能够理解的生意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You understand, you know, actually individual investors did a much better job analyzing Tesla than the so-called professional investors or analysts, the vast majority of them.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你能理解的，你知道吗，实际上在分析特斯拉（Tesla）时，个人投资者做的比那些所谓的专业投资者或分析师——我是说他们中的绝大多数——要好得多。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So if it's a business, you understand if you bought a Tesla, you understand the product and its appeal to consumers.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以如果这是一门生意，如果你买过特斯拉，你就能理解它的产品以及它对消费者的吸引力。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's a good place to start when you're analyzing a company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这是你在分析一家公司时的一个绝佳起点。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I would invest in things you can understand that's kind of a key.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我会投资那些你能理解的东西，这是个关键。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know you like Chipotle, you understand why they're successful.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道你喜欢Chipotle，你就懂他们为什么成功。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You can go there every week and you can monitor is anything changing?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你可以每周都去那里，你可以去观察有什么东西在改变吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, how these new kind of, how's chicken el pastor is that a good upgrade from the basic chicken, The drink offerings improving, the store is clean.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，这些新出的，比如“牧师烤肉味鸡肉（chicken el pastor）”相对于基础款鸡肉是不是一个很好的升级，饮品供应是否有改善，店面是否干净。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think you should invest in companies you really understand.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为你应该投资你真正了解的公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Simple businesses where you can predict with a high degree of confidence what it's gonna look like over time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那些简单的生意，在这些生意上你有极高的信心能预测出随着时间的推移它们会变成什么样。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And if you do that in a not particularly concentrated fashion and you don't borrow money against your securities, you're probably do much better than your typical mutual fund.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你能以一种不那么极端集中的方式去做这件事，并且你不拿证券抵押去借钱，你大概率会比那些典型的共同基金做得好得多。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Yeah, it's interesting. Consumers that love a thing are actually good analysts of that thing, or I guess a good starting point.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 是的，这很有趣。热爱某样东西的消费者实际上是这样东西的好分析师，或者我猜这是一个很好的起点。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And by the way, there's much more information available today.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 顺便说一下，今天可获取的信息要多得多。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: When I was first investing, literally we had people faxing us documents from the SEC filings in Washington DC.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当我刚开始投资时，毫不夸张地说，我们需要让人把SEC在华盛顿特区的文件传真给我们。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now everything's available online, conference call transcripts are free.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 现在一切都可以在线获取，电话会议的文字记录都是免费的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You have AI, you have unlimited data and all kinds of message boards and Reddit forums and things where people are sharing advice.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你有AI，你有无限的数据，还有各种留言板、Reddit论坛以及人们分享建议的地方。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And everyone has their own, you know, by virtue of their career or experience they'll know about an industry or a business and that gives them... I would take advantage of your own competitive advantages.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 每个人都有他们自己的专长，你知道，凭借他们的职业或经验，他们会对某个行业或生意有所了解，这赋予了他们……我会充分利用你自身的竞争优势。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I'm just afraid if I invest in Chipotle, I'll be like analyzing every little change of menu from a financial perspective and just be very critical.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我只是担心如果我投资了Chipotle，我就会像从财务角度去分析菜单上的每一个小变化一样，变得非常挑剔。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: If it's gonna affect your experience I wouldn't buy the stock.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果这会影响你的就餐体验，那我就不会买它的股票。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Yeah, I mean I should also say that I am somebody that emotionally does respond to volatility, which is why I've never bought index funds and I just notice myself psychologically being affected by the ups and downs of the market.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 是的，我是说我也应该坦白，我是那种在情绪上确实会对波动做出反应的人，这就是为什么我从没买过指数基金的原因，我就是注意到自己在心理上会受到市场涨跌的影响。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I want to tune out because if I'm at all tuned in and has a negative impact on my life.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我想屏蔽这些信息（tune out），因为如果我一旦关注进去，它就会对我的生活产生负面影响。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah, that's really important.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的，这确实非常重要。
📝 本节摘要：
本章深入探讨了“激进投资”（Activist Investing）的本质及其历史演变。阿克曼将其与缺乏人类主观判断的被动指数基金进行了对比，指出激进投资是通过集中持股并深度参与公司治理来解锁企业价值的策略。他回忆了潘兴广场（Pershing Square）早期的“敲门时代”——以投资温蒂汉堡（Wendy's）为例，说明在缺乏信誉时，必须依靠公开信和媒体施压来推动管理层变革。随着战绩积累，他如今已无需“在门外大喊”，而是被直接邀请进入董事会成为“深度参与的拥有者”（engaged owner）。阿克曼认为，这种模式恢复了19世纪末股东与管理层之间的权力平衡，有助于保护秉持长期主义的优秀CEO免受华尔街短期业绩压力的侵扰；同时，他指出当今庞大的指数基金作为稳定基石，实际上也杜绝了那些旨在搞垮公司赚快钱的恶意做空者的生存空间。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Can you explain what activist investing is? You've been talking about investing and then looking at companies when they're struggling,
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你能解释一下什么是激进投资（activist investing）吗？你一直在谈论投资，然后考察那些陷入困境的公司，
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: stepping in and reconfiguring things within that company and helping it become great.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 介入其中并重组公司内部的事务，帮助它变得伟大。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So that's part of it, but let's just sum out, what's this idea of activist investing?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以这是其中的一部分，但让我们总结一下，这种激进投资的理念究竟是什么？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think recently in the last couple of days I read an article saying that more than 50% of the capital in the world today that's invest in the stock markets, passive indexed money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我想最近这几天我读了一篇文章，说如今世界上投资于股票市场的资本中，有超过 50% 是被动指数资金（passive indexed money）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that's the most passive form, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那是最被动的形式，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So if you think about an index fund, a machine buys a fixed set of securities in certain proportion. There's no human judgment at all.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以如果你想想指数基金，就是一台机器按特定比例买入固定的一组证券。这其中根本没有任何人类的判断。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And there's no real person behind it in a way. They never take steps to improve a business. They just quietly own securities.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在某种意义上，它背后没有真实的人。他们从不采取措施去改善一家企业。他们只是安静地持有证券。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: What we do is we invest our capital in a handful of things. We get to know them really, really well.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们所做的，是将我们的资本投资于屈指可数的几个项目。我们对它们了解得非常、非常透彻。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: 'Cause you're gonna put 20% of your assets in something you need to know it really well.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因为你要把 20% 的资产投入到某个东西里，你必须对它非常了解。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But once you become a big holder and if you've got some thoughts on how to make a business more valuable, you can do more than just be a passive investor.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但一旦你成为大股东，而且如果你对如何让一家企业变得更有价值有自己的想法，你可以做的事情远不止是当一个被动的投资者。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So our strategy is built upon finding great companies in some cases that have lost their way and then helping them succeed.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们的策略建立在寻找那些在某些情况下迷失了方向的伟大公司，然后帮助它们取得成功。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we can do that with ideas from outside the boardroom.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们可以利用董事会之外（outside the boardroom）的想法来做到这一点。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sometimes we take a seat on a board or more than one, and we work with the best management teams in the world to help these businesses succeed.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 有时候我们在董事会占据一个或多个席位，我们与世界上最优秀的管理团队合作，以帮助这些企业取得成功。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So when I first went into this business no one knew who we were and we didn't have that much money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当我刚进入这个行业时，没人知道我们是谁，我们也没有那么多钱。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so to influence what was to us a big company, we had to make a fair bit more noise, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以，为了去影响一家对我们来说属于大公司的企业，我们必须制造出相当大的动静，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we would buy a stake, we'd announced it publicly, we'd attempt to engage with management.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们会买入股份，我们会公开宣布，我们会试图与管理层接触。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The first activist investment we made at Persian Square was Wendy's.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们在潘兴广场（Pershing Square）做的第一笔激进投资是温蒂汉堡（Wendy's）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I couldn't get the CEO to ever return my call. He didn't even return my call.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我怎么也无法让那位CEO回我的电话。他甚至都不回我的电话。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we actually, in that case, our idea was Wendy's owned a company called Tim Horton's, which was this coffee donut chain.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以实际上，在那个案例中，我们的想法是，温蒂汉堡拥有一家叫做 Tim Horton's 的公司，那是家咖啡甜甜圈连锁店。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you could buy Wendy's for basically $5 billion and they owned a hundred percent of Tim Horton's, which itself was worth more than 5 billion.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你基本上可以花 50 亿美元买下温蒂汉堡，而他们拥有 Tim Horton's 100% 的股份，这家店本身就值超过 50 亿美元。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So you could literally buy Wendy's, separate Tim Horton's and get Wendy's for negative value. That seemed like a pretty good opportunity
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以你完全可以买下温蒂汉堡，把 Tim Horton's 分拆出去，然后以负资产的代价获得温蒂汉堡。这看起来是个相当不错的机会，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: even though the business wasn't doing that well.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 尽管当时的业务做得并没有那么好。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we bought the stake called the CEO, couldn't get a meeting, nothing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们买入了股份，打电话给CEO，争取不到会议，什么都没有。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we hired actually Blackstone, which was at that time an investment bank.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们实际雇佣了黑石集团（Blackstone），当时它还是一家投资银行。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we hired them to do what's called a fairness opinion of what Wendy's would be worth if they followed our advice and they agreed to do it, paid 'em a fee for it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们雇佣他们去出具一份所谓的公平性意见（fairness opinion），评估如果温蒂汉堡听从我们的建议会值多少钱，他们同意做这事，我们为此付了费。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then we mailed in a letter with a copy of the fairness opinion saying Wendy's would basically be worth 80% more if they did what we said.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我们寄了一封信，附上那份公平性意见的复印件，说如果他们按照我们说的做，温蒂汉堡基本上会多值 80%。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And six weeks later they did what we said.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 六个星期后，他们照我们说的做了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So that's activism, at least an early form of activism.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这就是激进投资，至少是激进投资的一种早期形式。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: With that kind of under our belt, we had a little more credibility and now we started to take things and stakes in companies.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 有了那样的战绩傍身，我们就多了一点信誉，然后我们开始采取行动并在各家公司入股。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The media would pay attention. So the media became a kind of an important partner and some combination of shame, embarrassment and opportunity motivated management teams to do the right thing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 媒体会关注。所以媒体成了一种重要的合作伙伴，而羞耻心、尴尬与机遇的某种结合，促使管理团队做出了正确的事情。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then beyond that there's certain steps you can take if management's recalcitrant and the shareholders are on your side.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 除此之外，如果管理层顽抗到底，而股东们站在你这边，你可以采取某些措施。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But it's a bit like running for office.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但这有点像竞选公职。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You've gotta get all the constituents to support you and your ideas.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你必须让所有的选民（股东）都支持你和你的想法。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And if they support you and your ideas, you can overthrow, if you will, the board of a company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果他们支持你和你的想法，如果你愿意的话，你可以推翻一家公司的董事会。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You bring in new talent and then take over the management of a business. And that's the most extreme form of activism.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你引入新的人才，然后接管一门生意的管理。那是激进投资最极端的形式。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So that's kind of the early days.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 差不多就是那些早期的日子。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And what we did, and a lot of the early things that we did were we call it sort of like investment banking activism where we'd go in and recommend something, a good investment bank would've recommended.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们所做的，以及我们在早期所做的大量事情，我们称之为有点类似投资银行式激进投资（investment banking activism），即我们介入进去，提出一些建议，也就是一家好的投资银行会提出的建议。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And if they do it, we make a bunch of money and then we moved on to the next one.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果他们照做了，我们就能赚一大笔钱，然后我们再转向下一个目标。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then we realized an investment, a company called General Growth was the first time we took a board seat on a company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我们做了一笔投资，一家叫做 General Growth 的公司，那是我们第一次在一家公司中取得董事会席位。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And there it was some financial restructuring and also an opportunity to improve the operations of the business, sit on the board of a company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在那个案例中进行了一些财务重组，这也是一个改善企业运营、坐在公司董事会席位上的机会。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that was one of the best investments we ever made.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而那是我们做过的最棒的投资之一。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we said, okay, we can do more than just be an outside the boardroom investor and we can get involved in helping select the right management teams
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我们说，好的，我们可以做的不仅仅是一个在董事会门外的投资者，我们可以参与进来，帮助挑选正确的管理团队，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: and helping guide the right management teams. And then we've done that over years.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 并帮助引导正确的管理团队。我们在过去这些年里一直这么做。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then I would say the last seven years we haven't had to be an activist.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我想说，过去七年里我们已经不需要去充当一个激进分子了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: An activist is generally someone who's outside banging on the door, trying to get in.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 一个激进分子通常是那个在外面猛敲大门、试图进去的人。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We've sort of built enough credibility that they open the door and they say, "Hey Bill, what ideas do you have? "So welcome. Would you like to join the board?"
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们可以说已经建立起足够的信誉，以至于他们会主动打开门说：“嘿，比尔，你有什么想法？欢迎你。你愿意加入董事会吗？”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We're treated differently today than we were in the beginning.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 今天我们受到的待遇与一开始已经截然不同了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that is, I would say some people might just call it being an engaged owner.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这就是，我想说有些人可能会直接称之为做一名“深度参与的拥有者（engaged owner）”。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that by the way, that's the way investing was done in the Andrew Carnegie, JP Morgan days, 150 years ago, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 顺便说一句，这正是 150 年前，在安德鲁·卡内基（Andrew Carnegie）和 J.P. 摩根时代的投资方式，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You had these iconic business leaders that would own 20% of US steel, and when things would go wrong, they'd replaced the board and the management and fix them.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你有这些标志性的商业领袖，他们会拥有美国钢铁公司（US steel）20%的股份，当事情出错时，他们就会更换董事会和管理层并修复问题。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And over time we went to a world where mutual funds were created like in the 1920s, '30s, index funds with Vanguard and others.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 随着时间推移，我们进入了一个共同基金被创造出来的世界，大约在1920年代、30年代，还有领航投资（Vanguard）和其他机构的指数基金。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that all these controlling shareholders would kind of gave their stock to society or their children and multiple generations and there were no longer kind of controlling owners of businesses were very few.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以所有这些控股股东都相当于把他们的股票交给了社会，或是交给了他们的孩子，经过几代人的传承，就不再有那种商业控制性拥有者了，变得非常少。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that led to underperformance and the opportunity for activists over time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而这导致了业绩表现不佳，并随着时间推移为激进投资者创造了机会。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And what activism has done, and I think we've helped lead this movement, is it restored kind of the balance of power between the owners of the business and the managements of the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 激进投资所做的，而且我认为我们帮助引领了这场运动——就是它恢复了企业的所有者（owners）和公司管理层（managements）之间的某种权力平衡。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that's been a very good thing for the performance of the US stock market actually.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上，这对美国股票市场的表现来说是一件非常好的事。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So the owners meaning the shareholders?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所谓所有者，指的是股东？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yes.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And so there's a more direct channel of communication with activists investing between the shareholders and the people running the company.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以在股东和运营公司的人之间，有了一条更加直接的、关于激进投资的沟通渠道。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yes. So activists generally never own more than five or 10% of a business. So they don't have control.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。所以激进投资者通常持有一家企业的股份永远不会超过 5% 或 10%。因此他们没有控制权。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So the way they get influence is they have to convince the other but they have to get to sort of a majority of the other shareholders to support them.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他们获得影响力的方式是，他们必须去说服其他人，他们必须获得差不多多数其他股东的支持。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And if they can get that kind of support, they can behave almost like a controlling shareholder, and that's how it works.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果他们能获得那样的支持，他们的行为就几乎可以像一个控股股东一样，这就是它的运作方式。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So the running of a company's according to Bill Ackman is more democratic now?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以根据比尔·阿克曼的说法，现在一家公司的运营变得更民主了？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It is, it is. But you need some thought leaders.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 确实如此，确实如此。但你需要一些思想领袖。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So activists are kind of thought leaders 'cause they can spend the time and the money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以激进投资者有点像思想领袖，因为他们可以花时间和金钱。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, a retail investor that owns a thousand shares doesn't have the resources or the time, they got a day job.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，一个拥有1000股的散户投资者是没有资源和时间的，他们有自己的全职工作。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Whereas an activist day job is finding the handful of things where there are opportunities.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而一个激进投资者的全职工作，就是去寻找那少数几个存在机会的项目。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So on average, is it good to have such an engaged, powerful, influential investor helping control the direction of a company?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么平均来说，拥有这样一个深度参与、强大且具有影响力的投资者，来帮助控制公司的方向是一件好事吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It depends who that investor is, but generally I think it's a good thing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这取决于那个投资者是谁，但总的来说我认为这是一件好事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that's why one of the problems with being CEO of a company today and having a very diversified shareholder base is the kind of short term, long term balance.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这就是为什么如今身为一家公司的CEO，并且拥有极其分散的股东基础时，面临的问题之一就是短期与长期的平衡。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you have investors who have all different interests in terms of what they want achieve and when they wanted it achieved.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你有各不相同的投资者，就他们想要实现什么目标、以及希望何时实现而言，他们的利益诉求都不一样。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And CEO of a new company hasn't had... A new CEO of an old company, let's say, hasn't had the chance to develop the credibility to make the kinda longer term decisions
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而一家新公司的CEO还没能……我们这么说吧，一家老公司的新任CEO，还没机会建立起做那种长期决策的信誉，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: and can be stuck in a cycle of being judged on a quarterly basis.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因此很容易陷入基于每个季度业绩被评判的死循环中。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And a business, the best businesses are forever assets and decisions you make now have impact three, four or five years from now.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但一门生意，最优质的生意是永恒的资产，你现在做的决定会在三年、四年或五年后产生影响。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And sometimes there are decisions we make that have the effect of reducing the earnings of a company in the short term because in the long term it's gonna make the business much more valuable.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 有时候我们做的决定会在短期内降低公司的收益，因为从长期来看，它会让这家企业变得更有价值。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But it's sometimes it's hard to have that kind of credibility when you're a new CEO of a company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但当你作为一家公司的新任CEO时，有时很难拥有那样的信誉。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So when you have a major owner that's respected by other shareholders sitting on the board saying, hey, the CEO's doing the right thing and making this expensive investment in a new factory, we're spending more money on R&D because we're developing something that's gonna pay off over time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以，当你在董事会上有一位受其他股东尊敬的大股东发声说：嘿，CEO在做正确的事，在建新工厂上做这笔昂贵的投资是正确的，我们在研发上花更多的钱，因为我们在开发的东西会随着时间推移产生回报。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: That large owner on the board can help buy the time necessary for management to behave in a longer term way.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 董事会上的那位大股东，可以帮助管理层争取必要的时间，以一种长期的思维来行事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that's, I think, good for all the shareholders.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我认为，这对所有股东来说都是好事。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So that's the good story. But can it get bad? Can you have a CEO who is a visionary and sees the long-term future of a company
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 这是一个美好的故事。但情况会变坏吗？比如，你会不会遇到一个极具远见的CEO，他看到了公司的长远未来，
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: and an investor come in and have very selfish interest in just making more money in the short term and therefore destroy and manipulate the opinions of the shareholders and other people on the board in order to sink the company, maybe increase the price, but destroy the possibility of long-term value?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 但是一个投资者进来了，他出于极其自私的利益，只想在短期内赚更多的钱，因此破坏并操纵了股东以及董事会其他人的意见，借此搞垮公司，也许推高了股价，但却摧毁了创造长期价值的可能性？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It could theoretically happen, but again, the activist in your example, generally doesn't own a lot of stock.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 理论上可能会发生这种事，但再说一遍，你例子中的那个激进投资者，通常并不持有大量股票。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The shareholder bases today, the biggest shareholders are these index funds that are forever, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在今天的股东结构中，最大的股东是那些永远存在的指数基金，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, their ownership stakes are just at this point only growing 'cause of the inflows of capital they have from shareholders.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 贝莱德（BlackRock）、领航投资（Vanguard）、道富银行（State Street），现阶段由于股东资金的流入，他们持有的股份只会不断增长。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So they have to think or they should think very long term and they're gonna be very skeptical of someone coming in with a short term idea that drives the stock price up in the next six months.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他们必须、或者说他们应该进行极其长期的思考，他们会对那种带着旨在未来六个月内推高股价的短期想法闯进来的人持非常怀疑的态度。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But impairs the
📝 本节摘要：
本章详细回顾了阿克曼职业生涯中最经典的破产重组战役——对全美第二大购物中心运营商General Growth Properties（GGP）的投资。在2008年金融危机期间，该公司因短期债务到期面临破产，股价从63美元暴跌至34美分。阿克曼通过仔细研读破产法，敏锐地发现其底层资产价值远大于负债。Pershing Square以极低价格收购了25%的股份，阿克曼成功进入董事会并主导了重组。最终，这笔最初仅投入6000万美元（后增资）的交易获得了数十倍的惊人回报。阿克曼借此强调，通过独立研究、打破常规思维（即不受传统破产投资成见的束缚），即使在绝望的危机中也能发掘出巨大的投资价值。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: You mentioned General Growth. I read somewhere called arguably one of the best hedge fund trades of all time.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你提到了General Growth（通用增长资产公司）。我曾在某处读到，这可以说是史上最伟大的对冲基金交易之一。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So I guess it went from $60 million to over 3 billion.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以我猜它是从6000万美元涨到了超过30亿美元。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was a good one.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那是一笔极好的投资。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But it wasn't a trade, I wouldn't describe it as a trade.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但那不是一笔“交易”（trade），我不会把它描述为一次短线交易。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: A trade is something you buy and you flip.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 交易是你买入然后再倒手卖出的东西。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: This is something where we made the investment initially in November of 2008,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这次是我们最初在2008年11月进行的投资，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: and then we still own a company we spun off of General Growth and it's now 15 years later.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我们至今仍拥有一家从General Growth剥离出来的公司，而现在已经是15年后了。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Can you describe what went into making that decision to actually increasing the value of the company?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你能描述一下为了真正提升公司价值，做出那个决定背后都经历了什么吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sure. So this was at the time of the financial crisis circa November, 2008.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然。那是大约在2008年11月金融危机期间。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: What real estate's always been a kind of sector that I've been interested in.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 房地产一直是我很感兴趣的一个领域。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I began my career in the real estate business working for my dad actually ranging mortgages for real estate developers.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我的职业生涯始于房地产行业，实际上是为我父亲工作，为房地产开发商安排抵押贷款。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I have kind of deep ties and interest in the business and General Growth was the second largest
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我对这门生意有着很深的渊源和兴趣，而General Growth是当时全美第二大
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: shopping mall company in the country.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 的购物中心公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Simon Properties, many people have heard of, General Growth was number two.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 西蒙地产（Simon Properties）很多人都听说过，General Growth当时排第二。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They owned some of the best malls in the country.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们拥有全国最好的一些购物中心。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And at that time people thought of shopping malls as these non-disruptively things.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且在那个时候，人们认为购物中心是那种“不可颠覆”的业态。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Again, we talk about disruption.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们又聊到颠覆了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Malls have been disrupted in many ways.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 购物中心已经在许多方面被颠覆了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And General Growth, the company, the CFO in particular was very aggressive in the way that he borrowed money,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而General Growth这家公司，特别是它的CFO，在借钱的方式上非常激进，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: and he borrowed money from a kind of Wall Street, not long-term mortgages but generally relatively short-term mortgages.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他从华尔街那里借钱，不是长期的抵押贷款，而通常是相对短期的抵押贷款。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was pretty aggressive as the value went up, he would borrow more and more against the assets
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 随着资产价值的上升，这种做法相当激进，他会拿资产抵押借来越来越多的钱，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: and that helped the short-term results of the business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而这有助于提升企业的短期业绩。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The problem was during the financial crisis, the market for what's called CMBS, commercial mortgage backed securities basically shut
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 问题在于，在金融危机期间，所谓的CMBS（商业抵押担保证券）市场基本上关闭了，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: and the company 'cause its debt was relatively short term, had a lot of big maturities coming up that they had no ability to refinance.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而由于该公司的债务相对短期，面临大量即将到期的巨额债务，他们根本无力进行再融资。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the market said, oh my god, the lenders are gonna foreclose and the shareholders are gonna get wiped.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 于是市场都在说，我的天哪，贷款人要取消抵押品赎回权了，股东们要血本无归了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The company's gonna go bankrupt, they're gonna get wiped out.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 公司要破产了，他们要被彻底清盘了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The stock went from $63 a share to 34 cents.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 股价从每股63美元跌到了34美分。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: There was a family, the bucks bound family owned I think about 25% of the company
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 有一个家族，Bucksbaum家族（原文误录为bucks bound），我认为他们拥有公司大约25%的股份，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: and they had 5 billion of stock that was worth 25 million or something by the time we bought a stake in the business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当我们入股这家企业时，他们原本价值50亿美元的股票，已经跌到只值2500万美元左右了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And what interested me was I thought the assets were worth substantially more than the liabilities.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而让我感兴趣的是，我认为其资产的价值远远超过了负债。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The company had 27 billion of debt and had a hundred million dollars value of the equity down from like 20 billion.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这家公司有270亿美元的债务，而其股权价值从大概200亿美元跌到了只有1亿美元。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And one that, you know, sort of an interesting place to start with a stock down 99%.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，对于一只暴跌了99%的股票来说，这算是一个相当有趣的切入点。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But the fundamental drivers, the mall business are occupancy.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但购物中心业务的根本驱动力是出租率。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: How occupied are the malls.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 购物中心的入驻率有多高。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Occupancy was up year on year between '07 and '08.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在07年到08年期间，出租率同比是上升的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Interestingly, net operating income, which is kind of of a measure of cash flow from the malls, that was up year on year.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 有趣的是，净营业收入（NOI）——这算是衡量购物中心现金流的一个指标——也是同比上升的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So kind of the underlying fundamentals were doing fine.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以，它的底层基本面其实表现不错。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The only problem they had is they had billions of dollars of debt that they had to repay, they couldn't repay.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们唯一的问题是，他们有数十亿美元必须偿还的债务，但他们还不上。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And if you kind of examine the bankruptcy code that it's precisely designed for a situation like this where it's kind of this resting place you can go to kind of restructure your business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你去仔细研究《破产法》，就会发现它恰恰就是为这种情况设计的——它就像是一个你可以进去休整、重组业务的避风港。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now the problem was that every other company that had gone bankrupt, the shareholders got wiped out.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 现在的问题是，在之前每一个破产的公司案例中，股东都被彻底清空了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so the market's seeing every previous example, the shareholders get wiped out the assumptions is this stocks gonna go to zero.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因此，市场看到了之前所有的先例，股东血本无归，所以普遍假设这只股票会归零。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But that's not what the bankruptcy code says.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但《破产法》并不是这么写的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: What the bankruptcy code says is that the value gets apportioned based on value.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 《破产法》规定，价值是根据资产价值本身来进行分配的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And if you could prove to a judge that there was the assets worth more than the liabilities,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你能向法官证明其资产价值大于负债，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: then the shareholders actually get to keep their investment in the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那么股东实际上就能保留他们在公司的投资。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that was the bet we made.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这正是我们所押注的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so we stepped into the market and we bought 25% of the company in the open market.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 于是我们介入市场，在公开市场上买入了这家公司25%的股份。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We had to pay up.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们不得不提高出价。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It started out at 34 cents, I think there were 300 million shares.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 它是从34美分开始的，我想当时大约有3亿股。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So it was at a hundred million dollars value.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以它的市值大约是1亿美元。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: By the time we were done we paid an average of, we paid 60 million for 25% of the business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 等我们买完的时候，我们支付的平均成本是，我们花了6000万美元买下了这家企业25%的股份。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So about $240 million for the equity of the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以当时公司的整体股权价值大约是2.4亿美元。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then we had to get on the board to convince the directors the right thing to do.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 接下来，我们必须进入董事会，去说服董事们采取正确的行动。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the board was in complete panic, didn't know what to do, spending a ton of money on advisors.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而当时董事会处于彻底的恐慌之中，不知道该怎么办，花了大笔的钱在顾问身上。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you know, I was a shareholder activist, four years into Pershing Square and no one had any idea what we were doing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，我是一个激进投资者，Pershing Square（潘兴广场）成立才四年，根本没人知道我们在干什么。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They thought we were crazy every day stock.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们觉得我们每天买这股票是疯了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Every day we'd go into the market and we'd buy this penny stock and we'd file what's called a 13 D, every 1% increase in our stake.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 每天我们都会进入市场买入这只仙股，而且我们的股份每增加1%，就会提交一份所谓的13D表格（举牌报告）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And people just thought we were crazy.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 人们就是觉得我们疯了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We're buying stock in a company that's gonna go bankrupt.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们居然在买一家即将破产的公司的股票。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Bill, you're gonna lose all your money, you know, run.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 比尔，你会把钱全亏光的，你知道的，快跑吧。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I said, well wait, you know, bankruptcy code says that it was more asset value than liabilities.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我说，等等，要知道《破产法》规定只要资产价值大于负债，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We should be fine.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们就会没事的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the key moment if you're looking for fun moments is there's a woman named Maddie Buxbaum who was from the Bucksbaum family and her cousin John was chairman of the board, CEO of the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你在寻找有趣的历史时刻，这里的关键转折是有一位名叫Maddie Buxbaum的女士，她来自Bucksbaum家族，而她的表亲John是董事会主席兼公司CEO。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I said, as she calls me after we disclose our stake in the company, she's like, "Billy Ackman, I'm really glad to see you here".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在我们公开了公司股份后，她打电话给我，大概意思是说：“比利·阿克曼，我真的很高兴看到你在这里。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I met her like, I don't think it was a date, but I kind of met her in a social context when I was like 25 or something.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我曾经见过她，我不觉得那算是一次约会，但在我大概25岁的时候，我在某个社交场合见过她。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And she said, "Look, I'm really glad to see you here and if there's anything I can do to help you call me".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 她说：“听着，我真的很高兴看到你在这里，如果有什么我能帮上忙的，给我打电话。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I said sure.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我说好的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We kept trying to get on the board of the company, they wouldn't invite us on, couldn't really run a proxy contest not with a company going bankrupt.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们一直试图进入公司董事会，但他们不肯邀请我们加入，而在公司濒临破产的情况下，我们也无法真正发起一场代理权争夺战。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And their advisors actually were Goldman Sachs and they're like, you don't want the fox in the hen house.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上他们的顾问是高盛（Goldman Sachs），他们大概的意思是：你们可不想引狼入室（fox in the hen house，让狐狸进鸡舍）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And they were listening to their advisors.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 于是他们听从了顾问的建议。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I called Maddie up and I said, "Maddie, I need to get on the board of the company to help".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我打电话给Maddie说：“Maddie，我需要进入公司董事会来帮忙。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And she says, "You know what, I will call my cousin and I'll get it done".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 她说：“你知道吗，我会给我表亲打电话，我会搞定的。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Like, you know, she calls back a few hours later, you'll be going onto the board.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 结果你知道吗，几小时后她回电话说，你可以进董事会了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I don't know what she said to the cousin.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我不知道她对她表亲说了什么。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Well, she was convincing.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 嗯，她显然很有说服力。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Next thing you know, I'm invited to on the board of the company and the board is talking about the old equity of General Growth.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 接下来你知道的，我就被邀请加入了公司董事会，而董事会当时正在讨论General Growth的“老股权”（old equity）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Old equity is what you talk about the shareholders are getting wiped out.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 老股权意味着你在讨论股东将被彻底清盘出局。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I said, no, no, no, this board represents the current equity of the company and I'm a major shareholder.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我说，不，不，不，这个董事会代表的是公司当前的股权，而我是一个大股东。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: John's a major shareholder.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: John也是个大股东。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: There's plenty of asset value here.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这里还有充足的资产价值。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: This company should be able to be restructured for the benefit of shareholders.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这家公司应该能够为了股东的利益进行重组。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we led a restructuring for the benefit of shareholders and it took, let's say eight months and the company emerged from chapter 11.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 于是我们主导了一场为股东利益而战的重组，这花了大概八个月的时间，公司走出了第11章破产保护。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We made an incremental investment into the company and the shareholders kept the vast majority of their investment.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们对公司进行了追加投资，而股东们保住了他们绝大部分的投资。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: All the creditors got their face amount of their investment
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所有的债权人都拿回了他们投资的面值，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: par plus accruede interest.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 即票面价值加上应计利息。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it was a great outcome.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这是一个极好的结果。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: All the employees kept their jobs.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所有的员工都保住了工作。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The mall stayed open, there's no liquidation.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 购物中心继续营业，没有进行破产清算。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The bankruptcy system worked the way it should.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 破产系统发挥了它应有的作用。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, I was in court all the time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，我那段时间一直都在法庭里。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the first meeting with the judge, the judge was like, "Look, this would never have happened were it not for a financial crisis".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在与法官的第一次会面中，法官大概是这么说的：“看，如果不是因为金融危机，这种情况根本就不会发生。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And once the judge said that I knew we were gonna be fine because the company really not done anything fundamentally wrong, maybe a little too aggressive in how they borrowed money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当法官一说出那句话，我就知道我们会没事的，因为这家公司真的没有做任何根本性的错事，也许只是在借钱的方式上有些过于激进了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And stock went from 34 cents to $31 a share.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 后来股价从34美分涨到了每股31美元。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And actually fun little anecdote, we made a lot of people a lot of money who followed us into it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上有个有趣的小轶事，我们让许多跟随我们入场的人赚了一大笔钱。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I got a lot of nice thank you notes, which you get on occasion in this business, believe it or not.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我收到了很多友善的感谢信，信不信由你，在这个行业里你偶尔是能收到这些的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then one day I get a voicemail, this is when there was something called voicemail probably a few years later.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后有一天我收到了一个语音留言，那还是在大概几年后，当时还有语音留言这种东西。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it's a guy with a very thick Jamaican accent leaving a message for Bill Ackman.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是一个操着浓重牙买加口音的男人给比尔·阿克曼留的言。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So you know, I return all my calls.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如你所知，我会回复我所有的电话。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Call the guy back, I said, "Hi, it's Bill Ackman, I'm just returning your call".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我给那人回拨过去，我说：“嗨，我是比尔·阿克曼，我给你回个电话。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He says, "Oh Mr. Ackman, thank you so much for calling me".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他说：“哦，阿克曼先生，太感谢你给我打电话了。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I said, "Oh, how can I help?"
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我说：“哦，我能帮你什么忙吗？”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He says, "I wanted to thank you".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他说：“我是想谢谢你。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I said, "What do you mean?"
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我问：“你是什么意思？”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He said, "I saw you on CNBC a couple years ago and you were talking about this General Growth and the stock".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他说：“几年前我在CNBC上看到了你，你当时正在谈论这个General Growth和它的股票。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I said, "Where was the stock at the time?"
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我问：“那时的股价是多少？”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He said, "It's 60 cents or something like this. And I bought a lot of stock".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他说：“大概是60美分或者差不多这个价。然后我买了很多这只股票。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I'm like, "Well how much did you invest?"
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我便问：“那你投资了多少钱？”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: "Oh, I invest all of my money in the company".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: “哦，我把我所有的钱都投资在这家公司了。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And he was a New York City taxi driver
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他是一个纽约市的出租车司机，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: and he invested like $50,000 or something like this at 60 cents a share.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他以每股60美分的价格，投资了大概5万美元左右。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And he was still holding it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且他一直持有这只股票。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And he went into retirement and he made, you know, 50 times as money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后他步入了退休生活，你知道的，他赚了50倍的钱。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you know, those are the moments that you feel pretty good about investing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，正是这些时刻，让你对投资这件事感觉非常棒。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: What gave you confidence through that.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 是什么让你在那个过程中保持了信心。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Went to penny stock and I'm sure you were getting a lot of naysayers and people saying that this is crazy.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 跌成了仙股，我肯定你当时遭到了很多唱衰者的质疑，人们都在说这太疯狂了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's the same thing. You just do the work.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 道理是一样的。你只需要做好研究功课。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Like we got a lot of pushback from our investors actually.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上，我们也遭到了我们自己投资人的很多强烈反对。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: 'Cause we had never invested in a bankrupt company before.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因为我们以前从未投资过破产公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's a field called distressed investing and they're dedicated distressed investors and we weren't considered one of them.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这是一个被称为不良资产投资（distressed investing）的领域，市面上有专门的不良资产投资者，而我们并不被认为是其中之一。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So Bill, what are are you doing?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他们说：比尔，你到底在干什么？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You don't know anything about distressed investing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你对不良资产投资一无所知。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You don't know anything about bankruptcy investing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你对破产投资一无所知。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But I can read.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但是我识字能看书啊。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And you learned.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 然后你学会了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I learned and it sometimes it's very helpful not to be a practitioner, an expert in something, 'cause you get used to the conventional wisdom.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我学会了。而且有时候，不作为一个某个领域的从业者或专家是非常有帮助的，因为专家容易陷入传统成见的束缚中。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so we just, you know, abstractly read the step back and looked at the facts
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们就只是，你知道的，抽象地阅读，退后一步去审视事实，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: and it was just a really interesting setup for one of the best investments we ever made.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后这恰恰为我们有史以来做过的最棒的投资之一，提供了一个非常有趣的开局设定。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: How hard is it to learn some of the legal aspects of this? Like you mentioned bankruptcy code.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 学习这方面的法律知识有多难？比如你提到了破产法。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Like I imagine is very sort of dense language and dense ideas and the loopholes and all that kind of stuff.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我能想象那是那种非常晦涩的语言、密集的理念以及各种漏洞之类的东西。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Like if you're just stepping in and you've never done distressed investing, how hard is it to figure out?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 比如如果你刚涉足其中，而且你以前从未做过不良资产投资，弄清楚这些有多难？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's not that hard. No, it's not that hard.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 没那么难。不，那并没有那么难。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I mean, I literally read a book on distressed investing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我是说，我真的就只是读了一本关于不良资产投资的书。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Ben Branch or something,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 作者叫本·布兰奇（Ben Branch）或者别的什么，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: something on distressed investing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 一本关于不良资产投资的书。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So you were able to pick up the intuition from that.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以你能够从中获得直觉。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Just all the basic skills involved, the basic facts to know all that kind of stuff.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 仅仅是掌握涉及的所有基本技能，需要知道的基本事实以及所有这类东西。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Most of the world's knowledge is already been written somewhere.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 世界上大部分的知识早就已经写在某个地方了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You just gotta read the right books.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你只需要读对的书即可。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And also had great lawyers, built up some great relationships.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 此外，我们还有极棒的律师，建立了一些极好的关系。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We worked with Sullivan and Cromwell and the lawyer there named Joe Schenker, who I met earlier in my career.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们与苏利文·克伦威尔律师事务所（Sullivan and Cromwell）合作，那里的律师叫乔·申克（Joe Schenker），我在职业生涯早期就认识他。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Pershing Score is actually my second act in the hedge fund business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 潘兴广场（Pershing Square，原文误录为Pershing Score）实际上是我在对冲基金行业的第二次创业。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I started a fund called Gotham Partners when I was 26.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我在26岁时创办了一家叫作高谭合伙人（Gotham Partners）的基金。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: One of my early investments was a company called Rockefeller Center Properties that was heading for bankruptcy.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我早期的投资之一是一家名为洛克菲勒中心资产（Rockefeller Center Properties）的公司，当时正走向破产。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the lawyer on the other side representing Goldman Sachs was a guy named Joe Schenker.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而对面代表高盛的律师就是一个叫乔·申克的家伙。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So he was like an obvious phone call 'cause we had yet another real estate bankruptcy.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以这通电话打给他是显而易见的选择，因为我们又遇到了一起房地产破产案。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that one we did very well.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那个案子我们干得非常漂亮。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But I missed the big opportunity and I suffered severe psychological torture every time I walked by Rockefeller Center
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但是当年我错失了那次大好机会，导致后来每次我走过洛克菲勒中心时，都会遭受严重的心理折磨。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: because we could've made,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因为我们本可以做成的，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: we knew more about that property than anyone else, but I knew less about deal making and didn't have the resources.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们比任何人都更了解那处资产，但我对交易撮合所知甚少，而且我没有资源。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I was 28 years old or 27, and they hired a better lawyer than we did and they outsmarted us on that one in a way.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那时我才28岁或者27岁，而他们雇用的律师比我们的更好，在某种程度上，他们在那次交易中智胜了我们。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I said, okay, I'm gonna go hire this guy the next time around.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我当时说，好吧，下一次我一定要把这家伙雇过来。
📝 本节摘要：
本章讲述了阿克曼经历过的最富戏剧性的代理权争夺战——重组加拿大太平洋铁路公司（Canadian Pacific）。作为曾经全北美运营最差的铁路公司，其董事会由傲慢的加拿大商界精英组成，对改革嗤之以鼻。阿克曼重仓买入后，成功说服传奇铁路高管亨特·哈里森（Hunter Harrison）出山，并在多伦多包下最大的会议厅向全体股东直接陈述改革方案。最终，潘兴广场赢得了99%的股东选票，全面重组了董事会和管理层。这笔投资不仅让公司起死回生、股价大涨十倍，也证明了激进投资者即使面临重重阻力与媒体的非议，通过破釜沉舟的“对抗式”换血也能为企业创造巨大的长期价值。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: What was the most dramatic battle for the board that you have been a part of?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你参与过的最具戏剧性的董事会争夺战是哪一次？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The Canadian Pacific Proxy contest.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 加拿大太平洋铁路公司（Canadian Pacific）的代理权争夺战。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So Canadian Pacific was like considered the most iconic company in Canada.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 加拿大太平洋铁路曾被认为是加拿大最具标志性的公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It literally built the country because the rail that got built over Canada is what united the various provinces into a country.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 毫不夸张地说，它建造了这个国家，因为横跨加拿大修建的铁路，正是将各个省份联合成一个国家的原因。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then over time, 'cause the railroad business is pretty good business, they built a ton of hotels, they owned a lot of real estate and it became this massive conglomerate, but it was horribly mismanaged for decades.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 随着时间的推移，因为铁路业务是一门相当不错的生意，他们建造了大量的酒店，拥有大量的房地产，它变成了一个庞大的企业集团，但几十年来它被管理得一塌糊涂。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: By the time we got involved, it was by far the worst run railroad in North America.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 到我们介入时，它是北美运营得最差的铁路公司，远不及其他同行。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They had the lowest profit margins, they had the lowest growth rate.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们的利润率最低，增长率也最低。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The every quarter management would make excuses generally about the weather as to why they underperform versus, and there there's a direct competitor, a company called Canadian National has a rail goes right across the country and Canadian Pacific would constantly be complaining about the weather.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 每一个季度，管理层通常都会拿天气作为业绩不佳的借口，而在那里有一个直接竞争对手，一家叫作加拿大国家铁路（Canadian National）的公司，也有一条横贯全国的铁路，但加拿大太平洋铁路却总是在抱怨天气。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And basically same country, same regions, tracks weren't that far apart.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 基本上是在同一个国家、同样的区域，铁轨隔得并没有那么远。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But it was a really important company and being on this board was like an honorary thing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但这是一家极其重要的公司，能够进入这个董事会就像是一种荣誉象征。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And everyone on the board was an icon of Canada, the chairman of the Royal Bank of Canada, the head of the most important grain, privately held grain company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 董事会里的每一个人都是加拿大的标志性人物，比如加拿大皇家银行的董事长、最重要的私营粮食公司的主管。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The sort of an important collection of big time Canadian executives.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这就像是加拿大顶级高管的一个重要集合。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Here we were, you know, this is probably about 13 years ago and still maybe 44-year-old from New York, not a Canadian basically saying this is the worst run railroad in North America.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 结果我们来了，你知道，这大概是13年前的事，当时我可能还是个44岁的纽约人，不是加拿大人，基本上直接指出这是北美运营最差的铁路。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we bought 12% of the railroad at a really low price.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 并且我们以极其低廉的价格买下了这条铁路12%的股份。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we brought with us to our first meeting the greatest railroader ever, a guy named Hunter Harrison who had turned around Canadian national.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在我们的第一次会面中，我们带上了有史以来最伟大的铁路人，一个名叫亨特·哈里森（Hunter Harrison）的家伙，他曾带领加拿大国家铁路扭亏为盈。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we'd like, okay, we've got a great asset, we've got the greatest railroad CEO of all time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们的态度是，好吧，我们掌握了一项极好的资产，我们找到了有史以来最伟大的铁路CEO。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He's come outta retirement to step in and run the railroad.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他结束了退休生活，准备出山来运营这条铁路。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we brought him to the first meeting and they wouldn't even meet with him.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们把他带到了第一次会面，可他们甚至都不愿见他。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And they wouldn't certainly weren't gonna consider hiring him and that led us to a proxy contest.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 毫无疑问，他们也不会考虑聘用他，这导致我们发起了一场代理权争夺战（proxy contest）。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And this is where the engine starts churning to figure out how this contest can be won.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 就是在这里，机器引擎开始轰鸣运转，开始谋划如何赢得这场争夺战。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So what's involved in a--
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么这其中都牵涉到什么——
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Well the key is we had to one, come up with a group of directors who would be willing to step into a battle.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 嗯，关键是第一点，我们得找出一群愿意投身这场战斗的董事人选。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we didn't want a bunch of New York directors or even American directors, we wanted Canadians.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们不想要一群纽约的董事，甚至不想要美国的董事，我们想要加拿大人。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The problem was this was the most iconic company in Canada, and we wanted high profile people.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 问题在于这是加拿大最具标志性的公司，而我们需要的是知名度很高的人。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we talked to all the high profile people in Canada.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们和加拿大所有知名度高的人都谈了一遍。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Every one of them would say, Bill, you're entirely right.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们每个人都会说，比尔，你完全是对的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: This thing is the worst run railroad, it needs to be fixed.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这玩意就是运营得最烂的铁路，它需要被修复。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But you know, I see John at the club, I see him at the Toronto Club, I can't do this, but you're totally right.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但是你知道，我会在俱乐部遇到约翰（时任公司主席），我会在多伦多俱乐部看到他，我不能这么干，但你绝对是对的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we had to, and that was the concern you have to file your materials by a certain day, you gotta put together a slate.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们别无他法，这也是我们当时担心的地方，你必须在某一天之前提交你的材料，你必须凑齐一份候选人名单（slate）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We needed a big slate 'cause we knew that we had to replace basically all the directors.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们需要一份很长的名单，因为我们知道我们必须更换掉几乎所有的董事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then one, I spoke to a guy who was one of the wealthiest guys in Canada who was on the board at one point in time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 后来有一次，我和一个加拿大最富有的人之一交谈，他曾一度在董事会任职。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And he said, "Bill, I have an idea for you.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他说：“比尔，我有个主意。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: "There's this woman, Rebecca McDonald's, why don't you give her a call?"
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那个叫丽贝卡·麦克唐纳（Rebecca McDonald）的女士，你为什么不给她打个电话呢？”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I called Rebecca and she was the first woman to take a company public in Canada as CEO.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 于是我打电话给丽贝卡，她是加拿大第一位作为CEO带领公司上市的女性。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And she was a kind of anti-establishment, not afraid to take on anything kind of person.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 她是那种有点反建制（anti-establishment）、天不怕地不怕的人。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I called her, we had a great conversation and she was in the Dominican Republic at her house.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我打电话给她，我们相谈甚欢，当时她正在多米尼加共和国的家里。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I flew down to see her and she said, "Yeah, I'm all in".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我飞过去见她，她说：“好，我全力加入（all in）。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And actually, once we got her, that enabled us to get others.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上，一旦我们搞定了她，这让我们能够拉拢到其他人。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then we put together our slate and we had some pretty interesting dialogue with the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我们凑齐了我们的名单，并与公司展开了一些相当有趣的对话。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They tried to embarrass us all the time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们总想方设法让我们难堪。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: In the press publicly, what are we talking about?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 在媒体上公开进行？我们说的是哪种情况？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Press publicly.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 媒体上公开的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, at one point I wrote an email saying, look, let's come to peace on this thing, but if we don't you're really forcing my hand and we're gonna have to rent the largest hall in Toronto and invite all the shareholders and it's gonna be embarrassing for management.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，有一次我写了一封电子邮件说，听着，让我们和平解决这件事，但如果不行，你们真的是在逼我出手，我们将不得不在多伦多包下最大的会议厅并邀请所有股东，那会让管理层非常难堪。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I made reference to some nuclear winter, let's not have it be a nuclear winter.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我提到了类似于核冬天（nuclear winter）的字眼，我说别让局面变成核冬天。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And they thought they'd embarrass me by releasing the email, but it only inspired us.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而他们以为公布这封邮件能让我难堪，但这反而激昂了我们的斗志。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we rented the largest hall in Canada and we put up a presentation walking through, here's Canadian National, here's Canadian Pacific, here's what they said, here's what they did.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们租下了加拿大最大的会议厅，我们做了一场演示汇报（presentation），逐一梳理：这是加拿大国家铁路，这是加拿大太平洋铁路，这是他们怎么说的，这是他们怎么做的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then we had Hunter get up, who's this incredibly charismatic guy from Tennessee, an amazing, he's like a lion, okay.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我们让亨特上台，他是这个来自田纳西州、极具个人魅力的家伙，非常了不起，他就像一头狮子，真的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Incredibly deep voice, unbelievable track record, incredibly respected guy.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 嗓音极其低沉，拥有令人难以置信的过往业绩，是一个极受尊敬的人。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's like getting Michael Jordan to come out of retirement and come and run the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这感觉就像请迈克尔·乔丹（Michael Jordan）复出，来经营这家公司一样。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And Hunter was incredible.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而亨特表现得令人难以置信。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And other Paul Ell, other members of my team were super engaged.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 包括保罗·埃尔（Paul Ell）等我团队的其他成员，大家都超级投入。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the board, Canadians are known to be nice.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 至于董事会，加拿大人以性格温和著称。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So one of the problems we had is shareholders would never tell management or the board that they were losing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们遇到的一个问题是，股东们绝不会直接告诉管理层或董事会他们要输了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was not until the night before the meeting when the vote came in, that management realized that they lost, we got 99% of the vote.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 直到会议前一天晚上投票结果出来时，管理层才意识到他们输了，我们获得了99%的选票。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And they offered us a deal when they begged us to take a deal.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 于是他们向我们提出了一项妥协协议，几乎是求着我们接受这项协议。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They said, look, we'll resign tonight so that we don't have to come to the meeting tomorrow.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们说，听着，我们今晚就辞职，这样我们明天就不用来开会了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: That's how embarrassed they were.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们就是如此难堪。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But that was kind of a interesting one.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但那确实是相当有趣的一次经历。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So for in both this proxy battle and the company itself, this was a one of your more successful investments?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么无论是在这场代理权争夺战还是对于公司本身而言，这都是你比较成功的投资之一？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I mean the stock's up about 10 times and it's an industrial company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我的意思是，股价涨了大约10倍，而且这是一家工业公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's a railroad, it's not like a growth. Like, it's not Google.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 它是一条铁路，它不像一只成长股。比如，它不是谷歌。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So it's a great story.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以这是一个极好的故事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the company's now run by a guy named Keith Creel.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这家公司现在由一个名叫基思·克里尔（Keith Creel）的人管理。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And Keith, it was Hunter's protege.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 基思是亨特的门生。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And in some many ways he's actually better than Hunter.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在很多方面，他实际上甚至比亨特更出色。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He's doing an incredible job.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他做得令人难以置信地好。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The sad part here is we made it, we did very well.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 遗憾的部分是，我们成功了，我们做得非常棒。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We tripled our money over several years.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们在几年内让投资翻了三倍。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then I went through a very challenging period because of a couple of bad investments and we had to sell our Canadian Pacific to raise capital to pay for investors who were leaving.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但后来因为几笔糟糕的投资，我经历了一段非常具有挑战性的时期，我们不得不卖掉我们在加拿大太平洋铁路的股份，以筹集资金来支付那些想要退出的投资者。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But we had another opportunity to buy it back in the last couple of years.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但在过去几年里，我们又获得了将它买回来的机会。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so we're now again a major owner of the company, but had we held onto original stock, it would've been epic, if you will.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们现在再次成为了公司的主要股东，但如果我们当时能一直持有最初的股份，那结果将是史诗级的（epic），如果你能懂的话。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So on this one, you were right.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以在这一把上，你是对的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yes.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And I read an article about you and there's many articles about you.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我读过一篇关于你的文章，外面有很多关于你的文章。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I read an article that said Bill is often right, but you approach it with a scorched earth approach that can often do more sort of damage.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我读过一篇文章说：比尔经常是对的，但你采用的是一种焦土（scorched earth）策略，这往往会造成更多某种程度上的破坏。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I haven't read the often right article, but the good news is we are often right and I say we because we're a team, small team, but a fortunately very successful one.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我没读过那篇说我“经常是对的”的文章，但好消息是，我们确实经常是对的，我说“我们”，因为我们是一个团队，一个小团队，但幸运的是，也是一个非常成功的团队。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, so our batting average as investors is extremely high.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，作为投资者，我们的命中率（batting average/打击率）是极高的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the good news is our record's totally public.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且好消息是，我们的记录是完全公开的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You can see everything we've ever done.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你可以看到我们做过的每一件事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But the press doesn't generally write about the success stories, they write about the failures.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但是媒体通常不会报道那些成功的故事，他们喜欢报道失败的故事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so we've had some epic failures, big losses.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们也曾有过一些史诗级的失败、巨大的亏损。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Good news is they've been a tiny minority of the cases.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 好的方面是，它们只占了案例中极小的一部分。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now, no one likes to lose money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然，没有人喜欢亏钱。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's even worse to lose other people's money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 亏掉别人的钱感觉就更糟了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I've done that occasionally.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我偶尔也确实经历过这种事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The good news is, if you've stuck with us, you've done very well over a long time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但好消息是，如果你一直坚持跟着我们，拉长周期看，你已经赚得盆满钵满了（done very well）。
📝 本节摘要：
本章借由OpenAI的董事会风波（指萨姆·奥特曼曾被短暂解雇事件），深入探讨了公司治理结构的重要性。阿克曼指出，OpenAI最初作为非营利组织成立，但后来为了吸引顶尖人才和资金，不得不转变为“上限盈利”（capped-profit）的混合结构。这种结构导致了投资者（拥有经济利益）与董事会（没有代表权且无经济利益）之间激励机制的严重错位，最终酿成了治理危机。此外，他还批评了传统硅谷风投（VC）主导的私营企业董事会模式，认为VC往往为了维持“对创始人友好”的声誉而对管理层的失误妥协，这凸显了引入真正独立且利益一致的董事会成员的必要性。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: On a small tangent since we were talking about boards, did you get a chance to see what happened with the Open AI board? Because I'm talking to Sam Waltman soon.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 稍微岔开一下话题，既然我们谈到了董事会，你有机会关注OpenAI董事会发生的事情了吗？因为我很快就要和萨姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman，注：原文Waltman为转录错误）交谈了。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Is there any insight you have, just maybe lessons you draw from these kinds of events, especially with an AI technology company, such dramatic things happening.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你有什么见解吗？或者从这类事件中吸取了什么教训？尤其是在一家AI科技公司里，发生如此戏剧性的事情。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah, that was an incredible story. Look, governance really matters.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的，那是一个令人难以置信的故事。听着，公司治理（governance）真的非常重要。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the governance structure of open AI I think leaves something to be desired.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我认为OpenAI的治理结构还有待改进（leaves something to be desired）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, I think Sam's point was this and maybe Musk, Elon Musk point originally set up as a nonprofit.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，我想萨姆的观点是这样的，也许马斯克（埃隆·马斯克）的初衷也是将其最初设立为一个非营利组织。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it reminds me actually, I invested in a nonprofit run by a former Facebook founder where he was gonna create a Facebook-like entity for nonprofits to promote goodness in the world.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这实际上让我想起，我曾投资过一个由前Facebook创始人运营的非营利组织，他打算创建一个类似Facebook的非营利实体，以促进世界上的善举。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the problem was he couldn't hire the talent he wanted 'cause he couldn't grant stock options, he couldn't pay market salaries.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而问题在于，他无法雇佣他想要的顶尖人才，因为他无法授予股票期权，也无法支付市场水平的薪水。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And ultimately he ended up selling the business to a for-profit.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 最终，他不得不把这门生意卖给了一家营利性机构。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So it taught me for-profit solutions to problems are much better than nonprofits.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以这件事教会了我，用营利性方案解决问题要比非营利性方案好得多。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And here you had kind of a blend, right? It was set up as a nonprofit, but I think they found the same thing. They couldn't hire the talent they wanted without having a for-profit subsidiary.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而在这里，你有一种混合体，对吧？它最初是作为非营利组织成立的，但我认为他们遇到了同样的问题。如果没有一个营利性子公司，他们就无法雇佣他们想要的人才。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But the nonprofit entity, as I understand it, owns or a big chunk of Open AI and the investors own sort of a capped interest where their upside is capped and they don't have representation on the board.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但是据我了解，该非营利实体拥有或者说占据了OpenAI很大一部分权益，而投资者拥有的是某种“上限利益”（capped interest），即他们的收益上限是被封顶的，并且他们在董事会中没有代表席位。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I think that was a setup for a problem and that's clearly what happened here.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为这就是问题爆发的温床，而这显然就是这里所发生的事情。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And there's I guess some kind of complexity in the governance. I mean, because of this nonprofit and cap profit thing, it seems like there's a bunch of complexity and non-standard aspects to it that perhaps also contributed to the problem.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 而且我猜在治理上存在某种复杂性。我是说，因为这种非营利和利润上限的设定，它似乎包含了一堆复杂性和非标准化的方面，这或许也是促成问题的原因之一。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah, governance really matters. Boards of directors really matter.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的，公司治理真的非常重要。董事会真的非常重要。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Giving the shareholders the right to have input at least once a year on the structure of the governance of companies is really important.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 赋予股东至少每年一次对公司治理结构提出意见的权利，这是非常重要的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And private venture backed boards are also not ideal.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 此外，由私人风险投资（venture backed）支持的董事会也不是理想的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, I'm an active investor in ventures and there are some complicated issues that emerge in private as sort of venture stage companies where board members have somewhat divergent incentives from the long-term owners of a business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，我是一个活跃的风险投资者，在处于风险投资阶段的私营公司中会出现一些复杂的问题，即董事会成员与企业长期所有者之间的激励机制（incentives）存在某种程度的背离。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And what you see a lot in venture boards is they're presided over generally by venture capital investors who are big investors in the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在风投董事会中你经常会看到的是，它们通常由对公司投入重金的风险投资人主导。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And oftentimes it's more important to them to give the, to have the public perception that they're good directors so they get the next best deal, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而通常对他们来说更重要的是，给公众留下他们是好董事的印象，这样他们才能拿到下一个最好的项目，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: If they have a reputation for kind of taking on management too aggressively word will get out in the small community of founders and they'll miss the next Google.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果他们有着对管理层过于咄咄逼人的名声，这个消息就会在小圈子的创始人社区里传开，他们就会错失下一个谷歌。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so their interests are not just in that particular company, that's also, you know, one of the problems. Again, it all comes back to incentives.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他们的利益并不仅仅在于那一家特定的公司，这也是，你知道的，问题之一。再说一遍，这一切都归结于动机（incentives）。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Can you explain to me the difference a venture backed like VCs and shareholders? So this means before the company goes public.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你能向我解释一下风险投资支持的，比如VC和股东之间的区别吗？所以这意味着在公司上市之前。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah. So private venture backed companies, the boards tend to be very small, could be a handful of the venture investors and management. They're often very rarely independent directors. It's just not an ideal structure.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。所以对于由私人风险投资支持的公司，董事会往往非常小，可能只有屈指可数的几个风险投资人和管理层。他们通常极少有独立董事。这实在不是一个理想的结构。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Oh, I see. You want independent.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 哦，我明白了。你想要的是独立董事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's beneficial to have people who have an economic interest in the business and they care only about the success of that company as opposed to someone who if you think about the venture business, getting into the best deals is more important than any one deal.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 拥有一批在企业中有经济利益、且只关心该特定公司成功与否的人是有益的；而不是像那些风险投资行业里的人，对他们来说，挤进最好的交易往往比任何单一的一笔交易更重要。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you see cases where the boards go along with, in some sense cases bad behavior on the part of management because they want a reputation for being kind of a founder friendly director.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后你会看到有些案例，在某些意义上，董事会对管理层的不良行为听之任之，因为他们想要树立一种作为“对创始人友好”（founder friendly）的董事的名声。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know that's kind of problematic. You don't have the same issue in public company boards.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道这有点成问题。你在上市公司的董事会里就不会遇到同样的问题。
📝 本节摘要：
本章揭示了阿克曼职业生涯中最惨痛的失败——对Valeant（威朗制药，录音文本中误拼为Vion/valiant）的投资。这笔高达40亿美元的亏损不仅打破了潘兴广场的连胜神话，更引发了华尔街的“落井下石”，导致其投资组合面临灾难性的盯市损失（包括康宝莱的逼空危机）。更为沉重的是，阿克曼当时正同时遭遇婚姻破裂、投资者撤资、法律诉讼以及激进投资者保罗·辛格（Paul Singer）对其公司的恶意做空。在几近破产和失去一切的至暗时刻，他顶住压力，破例向摩根大通借款3亿美元夺回公司控制权。他分享了在谷底遇见现任妻子内里·奥克斯曼（Neri Oxman）的奇妙经历，以及如何通过重申核心原则、坚持冥想与每天取得“微小进步”的复利效应，最终走出了这场人生风暴。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So we talked about some of the big wins and you're a track record, but you said there were some big losses. So what's the biggest loss of your career?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以我们谈论了一些巨大的胜利和你的业绩记录，但你说也曾有过一些巨大的亏损。那么你职业生涯中最大的亏损是什么？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Biggest loss in my career is a company called Vion Pharmaceuticals.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我职业生涯中最大的亏损是一家叫作 Vion Pharmaceuticals（注：此处录音将 Valeant / 威朗制药误转为 Vion）的公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We made an investment in business that didn't meet our core principles, problem in the pharmaceutical industry and there are many problems, as I've learned, is it's a very volatile business, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们对一门不符合我们核心原则的生意进行了投资，制药行业存在的问题——正如我所了解到的，这里有很多问题——在于它是一个波动性极大的行业，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's based on drug discovery, it's based on predicting kinda the future revenues of a drug before it goes off patent.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 它建立在药物研发的基础上，建立在预测一种药物在专利到期前的未来收益的基础上。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know lots of complexities. And we thought we had found a pharmaceutical company we could own 'cause of a very unusual founder in the way he approached this business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道这其中有许多复杂性。而我们当时以为我们找到了一家可以持有的制药公司，因为那里有一位在处理这项业务上做法非常与众不同的创始人。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was a company where another activist was on the board of directors of the company and kind of governing and overseeing the day-to-day decisions.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在那家公司里，另一位激进投资者也在这家公司的董事会中，并在某种程度上管理和监督着日常的决策。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we ended up making a passive investment in the company. And up until this point in time, we really didn't make passive investments.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我们最终对这家公司进行了一笔被动投资。而在此之前，我们实际上是从未做过被动投资的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the company made a series of decisions that were disastrous and then we stepped in to try to solve the problem.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 接着，这家公司做出了一系列灾难性的决定，随后我们介入进去，试图解决这个问题。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was the first time I ever joined a board and the mess was much larger than I realized from the outside.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那是我有史以来第一次加入董事会，结果发现这个烂摊子比我从外面看时意识到的要大得多。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then I was kind of stuck.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 于是我某种程度上被困住了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it was very much a confidence sensitive strategy, 'cause they built their business by acquiring pharmaceutical assets and they often issued stock when they acquired targets.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这很大程度上是一种对信心极度敏感的策略，因为他们是通过收购制药资产来建立业务的，而且在收购目标时经常发行股票。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so once the market lost confidence in management, the stock price got crushed and it impaired their ability to continue to acquire low costs drugs.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因此，一旦市场对管理层失去了信心，股价就会遭受重创，进而削弱了他们继续收购低成本药物的能力。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we lost $4 billion.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我们亏损了 40 亿美元。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: $4 billion?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 40 亿美元？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah. How's that for a big loss?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。这个巨亏怎么样？
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: That's--
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 这简直是——
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's up there.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 绝对是首屈一指的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I'm sweating this whole conversation, both the wins and the losses and the stakes involved.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 这整场对话都让我直冒冷汗，无论是那些胜利还是失败，以及其中涉及的筹码。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And by the way, that loss catalyzed other, what I call market to market losses.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 顺便说一句，那次亏损还催化了其他我称之为按市值计价（market-to-market，应为 mark-to-market）的损失。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So very high profile, huge number, disastrous press.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以这是一次极高调、金额巨大、媒体报道灾难性的事件。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Then people said, okay, Bill's gonna go outta business, so we're gonna bet against everything he's doing and we know his entire portfolio 'cause we only own 10 things.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后人们开始说，好吧，比尔要完蛋出局了，所以我们要和他做的一切反向对赌，而且我们知道他的全部投资组合，因为我们只持有 10 只股票。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we were short a company called Herbalife. Very famously, we've only really shorted two companies.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且当时我们在做空一家叫康宝莱（Herbalife）的公司。非常著名的是，我们实际上只做空过两家公司。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The first one, there's a book, the second one there's a movie.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 第一家公司，有人为此写了本书；第二家公司，有人拍了部电影。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Okay, we no longer short companies, so people pushed up the price of Herbalife, which is when you're a short seller, that's catastrophic. I can explain that.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 好了，我们现在不再做空公司了，所以当时人们联手推高了康宝莱的价格，而当你是一个做空者时，那是灾难性的。我可以解释一下。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then they also shorted the other stocks that we owned.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后他们还做空了我们持有的其他股票。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so that valiant loss led to an overall more than 30% loss in the value of our portfolio.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因此，那次威朗制药（Valiant，应为 Valeant）的亏损导致我们投资组合的价值总体缩水了超过 30%。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The valiant loss was real and was crystallized. We ended up selling the position taking that loss.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 威朗制药的亏损是真实的，且已被坐实（crystallized）。我们最终抛售了头寸，吞下了那笔亏损。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Most of the other losses were what I would call market to market losses that were temporary.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 其他大部分损失是我所谓的按市值计价的账面损失，那是暂时的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But many people go outta business because as I mentioned before, large move in a price.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但正如我之前提到的，许多人因为价格的剧烈波动而彻底破产出局。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: If investors are redeeming or you have leverage, you know, can put you outta business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果投资者在赎回资金，或者你加了杠杆，你知道的，这就能让你破产倒闭。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And people assumed if we got put outta business, we'd have to sell everything or cover our short position and that would make the losses even worse, so Wall Street is kind of ruthless.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而人们假设，如果我们要被迫关门，我们就不得不卖掉所有东西或者平仓我们的做空头寸，而那会让我们的损失变得更加惨重，所以华尔街是有些冷酷无情的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So they can make money off of that whole thing?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以他们能从这整件事中赚钱？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Absolutely.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 绝对的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So they use the opportunity of Valiant to try to destroy you, reputation, financially, and then capitalize on, make money off of that?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以他们利用威朗制药（Valiant）的机会，试图在声誉上、财务上摧毁你，然后加以利用，从中赚钱？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yes.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Well, that's a terrifying spot to be in. What was it like going through that?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 哇，那是一个极其可怕的处境。经历这一切是什么感觉？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I was pretty grim.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我当时非常绝望（grim）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It's actually much worse than that because I had a lot of stuff going on personally as well and these things tend to be correlated.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上情况比这还要糟糕得多，因为我个人生活中也发生了很多事情，而且这些事情往往是相互关联的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The valiant mistake came at a time where I was contemplating my marriage and I was also...
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 威朗制药的错误发生在我正重新审视我婚姻的时候，同时我也是……
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The problem with the hedge fund business is when you get to a certain scale, the CEO becomes like the chief marketing officer of the business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 对冲基金行业的问题在于，当你发展到一定规模时，CEO 就会变得像企业的首席营销官（CMO）一样。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I'm really an investor as opposed to a marketing guy.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我骨子里真的是一个投资者，而不是一个搞营销的家伙。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But when you have investors who give you a few hundred million dollars, they wanna see you, you know, once a year bill, I'd love to see you for an hour.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但当你有投资者给了你几亿美元时，他们就会想见你，你知道的，“比尔，每年一次，我很乐意见你一个小时”。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But if you've got a couple hundred of those, you find yourself on a plane to the Middle East to Asia, flying around the country.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但如果你有几百个这样的投资者，你就会发现自己总在飞往中东、亚洲的飞机上，满世界乱飞。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: This is pre Zoom and that takes you away from the investment process. You have to delegate more.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那是在有 Zoom 之前，而这让你脱离了投资过程。你不得不下放更多的权力。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: That was a contributor to the valiant mistake.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这是导致威朗制药错误的一个诱因。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So now we lose a ton of money on valiant.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以现在我们在威朗制药上亏了一大笔钱。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: My ex-wife and I were talking about separating, getting divorced, I put that on hold.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我前妻和我当时正在谈论分居、离婚的事，我把那件事搁置了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I didn't wanna make a decision in the middle of this crisis.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我不想在这场危机的中间去做（关于婚姻的）决定。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And things just kept getting worse. We were also sued when you lose a lot of money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 结果事情变得越来越糟。当你亏掉很多钱时，我们还被起诉了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We didn't get sued by our investors, but we got sued by a shareholder because when the stock price goes down, shareholders sue, we'd done nothing wrong other than make a big mistake.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们不是被我们的投资者起诉的，而是被一名股东起诉的，因为当股价下跌时，股东就会提起诉讼，除了犯下大错之外我们其实并没有做错任何事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So you have litigation, your investors are taking their money out.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以你面临着诉讼，你的投资者在抽离他们的资金。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'm in the middle of a divorce, the divorce starts to proceed.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我处于离婚漩涡中，离婚程序开始推进了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: My ex-wife's lawyer's expectations of what my net worth was about three times what it actually was and it was going lower right in the middle of this.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我前妻的律师对我净资产的期望值，大概是我实际净资产的三倍，而且它正好在这场危机中还在不断缩水。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I remember the lawyer saying, "Look Bill, estimate your net worth at X, but don't worry, we only want a third".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我记得那位律师说：“听着，比尔，假设你的净资产估值是 X，但别担心，我们只要三分之一。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But X was 3X so a third was a hundred percent (laughs)
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但是他估算的 X 是实际的 3 倍（3X），所以那个所谓的三分之一就是百分之百了。（笑）
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then I had litigation and actually never before publicly disclosed, and I'll share it with you now.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我遭遇了诉讼，实际上这事之前从未公开披露过，我现在分享给你。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We had a public company that owned about a third of our portfolio that was called our version of Berkshire Hathaway.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们拥有一家占据了我们约三分之一投资组合的上市公司，那被称为我们自己版本的伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I tried to learn from Mr. Buffett over time, and it was, so to speak, permanent capital.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 随着时间的推移我试图向巴菲特先生学习，所以可以这么说，那是永久资本（permanent capital）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The problem with hedge funds is people can take their money out every quarter.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 对冲基金的问题在于，人们可以每个季度把钱抽走。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: What Buffet has is a company where people wanna take their money out, they sell the stock, but the money stays.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而巴菲特所拥有的是一家公司，如果人们想把钱拿出来，他们卖掉股票，但资金依然留在公司里。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we set up a similar structure in October of 2014, and then a year later Valiant happens, and then a year later we're in the middle of the mess and we're still in the mess.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们在 2014 年 10 月建立了一个类似的结构，然后一年后威朗制药危机爆发了，再过了一年，我们正处于烂摊子的中心，而且我们仍深陷其中。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, like by kind of mid 2017, we've got litigation underway and another activist investor, a firm called Elliot Associates,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道的，大概到 2017 年中期，我们身上有诉讼正在进行，而另一位激进投资者，一家名叫 Elliot Associates（埃利奥特管理公司）的公司，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: which is run by a guy named Paul Singer, took a big position in our public company that was the bulk of our capital and they shorted all the stocks that we owned.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 由一个叫保罗·辛格（Paul Singer）的家伙管理，在我们那家占据了我们大部分资本的上市主体中建了庞大的头寸，并且他们做空了我们持有的所有股票。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And they went long. The short probably went long, the short that we were short and they were making a bet that we'd be forced to liquidate and then they would make money on, you know, our public company was trading at a discount to what all the securities worth.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后他们做多了。确切地说是做多了我们正在做空的股票，他们赌我们会因为被迫清算而破产，然后他们就能从中赚钱——你知道，我们的上市公司当时的交易价格相对于其所有证券的实际价值是有折价的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So they bought the public company, they shorted the securities, and then they came to see us
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他们买入了那家上市公司，做空了那些证券，然后他们跑来见我们，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: and to try to be activists and force us to liquidate and that sort of...
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 试图充当激进投资者并迫使我们清盘，大概就是那种局面……
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I thought this was gonna be... I envisioned an end where the divorce takes all of my resources.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我以为这将会是……我设想了一个结局，离婚耗尽了我所有的资源。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The permanent capital vehicle ends up getting liquidated.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 永久资本工具最终被强制清盘。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And another activist in my industry puts me outta business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我行业里的另一个激进投资者把我逼得倾家荡产。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I had met Neri Oxman right around this time, and I'd fallen completely in love with her.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而就在这个时候，我遇见了内里·奥克斯曼（Neri Oxman），并且我彻底爱上了她。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I was envisioning a world where I was bankrupt.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我当时正设想着一个我破产了的世界。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: A judge found me guilty of whatever, he sends me off to jail or not that judge 'cause he was a civil judge, but another judge sues the SEC Department of Justice.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 某位法官判我有各种罪名，把我送进监狱——或者不是那位法官，因为那是位民事法官，而是另一位法官，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）、司法部来起诉我。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I find myself in this incredible mess.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我发现自己深陷于这场令人难以置信的混乱之中。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I decided I didn't want things to end that way.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 于是我决定，我不想让事情以那样的方式结束。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I did something I'd never done before.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 于是我做了一件我以前从未做过的事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I talked to all before about you don't borrow money, I borrowed money and I borrowed $300 million from JP Morgan in the middle of this mess.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我之前跟大家谈过你们不应该借钱投资，结果我在这个烂摊子中间借钱了，我向摩根大通（JP Morgan）借了 3 亿美元。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I gave JP Morgan enormous credit in seeing through it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我要极大地归功于摩根大通能看透这一切。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And also I had been a good client over a long period of time and it's like it's a handshake bank and they bet that I would succeed.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 另外，在很长一段时间里我一直是个优质客户，它就像是一家重信用的“握手银行”（handshake bank），而且他们押注我能渡过难关。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I took that money to buy enough stock in my public company that I could prevent an activist from taking over and effectively buy control of our little public company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后我拿着那笔钱在我的上市公司里买入了足够的股票，这样我就能阻止激进投资者的接管，并有效地买下了我们这家小上市公司的控制权。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I got that done.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我搞定了那件事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that I knew was the moment, the turning point.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我知道，那就是决定性的时刻，是转折点。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I resolved my divorce and divorces get easier to resolve when things are going badly.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我解决了我的离婚问题，当事情进展得很糟（净资产大幅缩水）时，离婚反而变得更容易解决了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I was able to resolve that. We settled the litigation.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我成功解决了那个问题。我们庭外和解了诉讼。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I was buying blocks of our stock in the market.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我当时在市场上大宗买入我们自己的股票。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I remember a day I bought a big block of stock in the market and I get a call from Gordon Singer, who's Paul Singer's son who runs their London part of their business.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我记得有一天我在市场上买入了一大宗股票，然后我接到了戈登·辛格（Gordon Singer）的电话，他是保罗·辛格的儿子，负责他们在伦敦的业务部分。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And he's like, "Bill, was that you buying that block?"
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他大概是这么说的：“比尔，是你买下了那大宗股票吗？”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I said, yes. And he's like, "Fuck".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我说，是的。然后他回了一句：“操（Fuck）”。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: (both laughing)
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: （两人大笑）
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So he knew--
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以他明白了——
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He knew that once I got that they were not gonna be able to succeed and they went away.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他明白，一旦我拿到了那些股份，他们就不可能再得逞了，于是他们撤退了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that was the bottom.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而那就是绝对的谷底。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that we've had an incredible run since then.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 从那以后，我们开启了一段令人难以置信的连胜狂奔。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And there you were able to protect your reputation from the valiant failure still?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以你在那里依然能够保护你的声誉免受威朗制药惨败的彻底摧毁？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I mean this is a business where you're gonna make some mistakes. It was a big one.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我的意思是，在这个行业你总是会犯一些错误的。这是一个大错。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was very reputationally damaging the press was a total disaster.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 它对声誉的破坏非常大，媒体报道简直是一场彻头彻尾的灾难。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But I'm not a quitter.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但我绝不是一个轻言放弃的人。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And actually the key moments for us, we'd never taken our core investment principles and actually really written them down something we talked about at meetings, kind of our investment team meetings.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上，对我们来说的一个关键时刻是：我们以前从未把我们的核心投资原则，那些我们在会议上、在投资团队会议上谈论过的东西，真正写下来。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I had a member of the team, I said, "Look, go find a big piece of granite and a chisel and let's take those core principles. I want them like Moses' 10 commandments".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我叫来团队里的一名成员，我说：“听着，去找一块巨大的花岗岩和一把凿子，我们要把这些核心原则刻下来。我要它们看起来就像摩西的十诫一样。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We're gonna chisel em and then we're gonna put it up on the wall.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们要把它们凿刻出来，然后我们要把它挂在墙上。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And once we produce those, we put one on everyone's desk.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 制作出来后，我们在每个人的办公桌上都放了一份。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I said, look, if we ever again veer from the core principles, hit me with a baseball bat.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我说，听着，如果我们以后再偏离核心原则，就用棒球棍狠狠打我。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that was the bottom.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那就是谷底了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And ever since then, we've had the best six years in the history of the firm.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而从那以后，我们迎来了公司历史上表现最好的六年。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So refocus on the fundamentals--
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以，重新聚焦于基本面——
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And love helps.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 还有，爱是有帮助的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Hell of a story.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 真是个见鬼的绝妙故事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Love helps. I literally met Neri at the absolute bottom.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 爱是有帮助的。我确确实实是在绝对的谷底遇见了内里（Neri）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Our first date was September 7th, 2017. That was very close to the bottom.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们的第一次约会是在 2017 年 9 月 7 日。那非常接近谷底。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Actually, there's one other element to the story.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上，这个故事还有另一个小插曲。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So this went on for a few months after I met her. The other element is that one day I get a call from Neri and she's like, 'Bill, guess what?"
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 事情发生在我认识她几个月之后。这个插曲是，有一天我接到内里的电话，她激动地说：“比尔，你猜怎么着？”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'm like, "What?"
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我问：“怎么了？”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Brad Pitt is coming to the media lab. He wants to see my work.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: “布拉德·皮特（Brad Pitt）要来（麻省理工的）媒体实验室了。他想看我的作品。”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'm like, that's beautiful sweetheart. I didn't know Brad Pitt was interested in your work.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我当时就说，那太棒了，亲爱的。我都不知道布拉德·皮特居然对你的作品感兴趣。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: As a man that's a difficult phone call to take.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 作为一个男人，接这样的电话可不太容易。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And apparently he's really interested in architecture.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而显然他真的对建筑学很感兴趣。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'm like, okay, now Neri and I were like, we would WhatsApp all day every day, we talk throughout the day.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我就想，好吧。当时我和内里每天一整天都会发 WhatsApp，我们整天都在聊天。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Brad Pitt shows up at the media lab at 10 o'clock.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 布拉德·皮特在早上 10 点出现在了媒体实验室。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I talk to her in the morning. I kind of text her to see how things are going.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 早上我和她通了话。我给她发短信想看看进展如何。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Don't hear back.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 没有回复。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And on WhatsApp you can see like whether the other person's read it or not.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在 WhatsApp 上你是能看到对方是否已读的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Yeah, yeah. Okay.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 是的，没错。然后呢。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: No response.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 毫无反应。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: A couple hours later, send her another text, no response.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 几个小时后，我又发了一条短信，没回复。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Six o'clock, no response. Eight o'clock, no response. 10 o'clock, no response.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 下午 6 点，没回复。晚上 8 点，没回复。晚上 10 点，没回复。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you know she finally calls me at 10:30 and tells me how great Brad Pitt is.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后你知道吗，她终于在晚上 10:30 给我打电话了，然后告诉我布拉德·皮特有多棒。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I had this scenario, okay, a judge is gonna find me, we're gonna lose to the judge.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我脑海里出现了这样一个场景：好吧，法官要判我罪了，我们要在法官面前输掉了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: All my assets will disappear.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我所有的资产都将化为乌有。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then Brad Pitt's gonna take my girlfriend.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后布拉德·皮特还要抢走我的女朋友。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Brad Pitt's your competition. This is great.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 布拉德·皮特成了你的情敌。这太精彩了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So it was like a moment. That was sort of the bottom.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以那真的是一个特殊时刻。那差不多就是最谷底了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then sort of the motivational thing. I didn't wanna lose to an activist, didn't wanna lose my girl to some other guy.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后某种激发动机的事情发生了。我不想输给一个激进投资者，也不想把我的女孩输给别的男人。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Brad Pitt and you emerged from all that, the winner on all fronts.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 面对布拉德·皮特以及所有的这一切，你挺过来了，成了各条战线上的赢家。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'm a very fortunate guy, very fortunate and lucky.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我是一个非常幸运的家伙，非常幸运且走运。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: You talked about some of the technical aspects of that. But psychologically is there a, like what are you doing at night by yourself?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你谈到了其中一些技术层面（商业操作）的事情。但在心理上，比如你晚上独自一人的时候在做什么？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: That was a hard time. Hard time 'cause I was separated from my wife and my kids.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那是一段艰难的时期。艰难是因为我当时和妻子及孩子们分居了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I was living in not the greatest apartment, I had a beautiful home and so I had to go find like a bachelor place and I didn't wanna be away from my kids.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我住在一个并不怎么好的公寓里，我原本有一个美丽的家，所以我不得不去寻找一个类似单身汉住的地方，但我又不想离我的孩子们太远。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I moved like 10 blocks away and I wasn't seeing them and they didn't like it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我搬到了大概 10 个街区之外，我见不到他们，而他们也不喜欢这样。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I ended up buying an apartment I didn't like in the same building as my kids, like, with a different entrance.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我最后在我的孩子们住的同一栋楼里买了一套我并不喜欢的公寓，大概就是个有独立入口的户型。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I could be near them. But I was home alone.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这样我就能离他们近一点了。但我一个人在家。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I got a dog that was a bar We call 'em a bar that, not the elephant.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我养了一只狗，一只叫 Bar 的狗——我们管他叫 Bar（巴尔，注：此处原意应指名为Babar），不是大象那个巴巴尔。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He's a black Labradoodle. He was supposed to be a mini, but he's not so as mini.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他是一只黑色的拉布拉多贵宾犬（Labradoodle）。他本来应该是只迷你的，但他长得没那么迷你。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But I got him at six weeks old and he would keep me company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但我在他六周大的时候养了他，他会陪着我。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I started meditating actually. And a friend recommended TM.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 实际上我开始冥想了。一个朋友向我推荐了超觉静坐（TM，Transcendental Meditation）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I would meditate 20 minutes in the morning, 20 minutes in the evening.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我每天早上会冥想 20 分钟，晚上冥想 20 分钟。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I also a big believer in exercise and weightlifting and I played tennis and I had been, this is not my first, proximity to disaster.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 此外我也极其信奉锻炼和举重，我打网球，而且你知道，这已经不是我第一次濒临灾难了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I had another moment in my career like, you know, 2002.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在我的职业生涯中，我经历过另一个（至暗）时刻，你知道的，在 2002 年。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I learned this method for dealing with these kind of moments,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我学会了应对这种时刻的方法，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: which is you just make a little progress every day.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那就是你只需要每天取得一点微小的进步。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So today I'm gonna wake up, I'm gonna make progress, I'll make progress on the litigation, I'll make progress on the portfolio, I'll make progress with my life.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 比如今天我醒来，我要取得进展，我要在诉讼上取得进展，要在投资组合上取得进展，要在我的个人生活上取得进展。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And progress compounds a bit like money compounds.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 进步会产生复利，有点像金钱的复利一样。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You don't see a lot of progress in the first few weeks, but like 30 days in you're like, oh, okay.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在最初的几周里你可能看不到太大的进展，但大约 30 天后你会觉得，哦，还不错。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Like you can't look up at the mountaintop where you used to be 'cause then you'll give up, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 就像你不能抬头去望你曾经所在的山顶，因为那样你会放弃的，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But you just, okay, just make step by step by step and then 90 days in you're like,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但你只要，好吧，就一步接一步地走，然后 90 天后你会觉得，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: okay, I was way down there. I'm okay. I don't look up.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 好吧，我之前在很深谷底。我现在感觉还行。我不要向上看。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Just keep making progress, progress, progress and progress really does compound.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 只要不断地取得进步、进步、进步，进步真的会产生复利。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And one day you wake up and like, wow, it's amazing how far I've come.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后总有一天你醒来会觉得，哇，我竟然已经走了这么远，真不可思议。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And if you look at a chart of Pershing Square, our company, you can see the absolute bottom, you can see where we were, you can see the drop and you can see where we are now.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你看一下我们公司（潘兴广场）的图表，你可以看到绝对的谷底，你能看到我们曾经的位置，你能看到那次暴跌，并且你能看到我们现在所在的高度。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that huge drop that felt like a complete unbelievable disaster looks like a little bump on the curve and it really gives you perspective on these things.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那个当时感觉像是彻底的、令人难以置信的灾难的巨大跌幅，现在在曲线上看起来就像是一个小小的颠簸（bump），它真的能赋予你用全局视角（perspective）去看待这些事情的能力。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You just have to power through.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你只需要咬紧牙关挺过去（power through）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I think the key is, I've always been fortunate, like from a mental health point of view and nutrition, sleep, exercise, and a little progress every day, that's it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为关键在于，我一直都很幸运，比如从心理健康的角度，以及营养、睡眠、锻炼，还有每天的一点小进步，这就是全部秘诀。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you know, good friends and family, I had, you know, go take a walk with a friend every night, and a sister who loves me and parents who were supportive, but they were all worried about their son, their brother.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 还有你知道的，好朋友和家人们，我拥有这些。每天晚上和一个朋友去散个步，有一个爱我的姐姐和支持我的父母，尽管他们都在担心他们的儿子、他们的兄弟。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was a moment.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那真是一个艰难的时刻。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And also, by the way, the other thing to think about is when you recover from something like this,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 另外，顺便说一句，另一件值得思考的事情是，当你从像这样的打击中恢复过来时，
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: you really appreciate it (laughs)
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你会真的去感恩它（笑）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And also as much of the media loves, okay, when some successful person falls, they love writing the story of success.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且，尽管媒体很喜欢这样——好吧，当某个成功人士跌倒时，他们喜欢写关于成功的故事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They love even more the story of failure but when you recover from that, it's kinda like the American story.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但他们更喜欢写失败的故事，但当你从失败中恢复过来时，这有点像典型的“美国故事”。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: America, you know, you think of the great entrepreneurs and how many failures they had before they succeeded.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 关于美国，你知道的，想想那些伟大的企业家们，他们在成功之前经历了多少次失败。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: How many rocket launches did SpaceX have explode on the pad? And then you look at success. I mean, that's why Musk is so admired.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: SpaceX 有多少次火箭发射在发射台上爆炸了？然后你再看看现在的成功。我的意思是，这正是马斯克如此受人敬仰的原因。
📝 本节摘要：
本章深入复盘了阿克曼针对康宝莱（Herbalife）的著名做空战役，以及他与华尔街传奇人物卡尔·伊坎（Carl Icahn）长达十年的恩怨情仇。阿克曼首先通俗地科普了“做空”机制及其理论上无限的亏损风险。随后，他详细披露了做空康宝莱的逻辑（认定其为剥削底层人民的金字塔传销骗局），以及卡尔·伊坎如何出于历史私怨（源自多年前一笔带有“傻瓜保险”条款的房地产交易违约及随后的法庭交锋）趁机买入康宝莱股票并对其进行“逼空”（short squeeze）。最终，尽管联邦贸易委员会（FTC）证实了康宝莱的传销本质并开出巨额罚单，但潘兴广场仍在此次逼空战中损失了10亿美元。不过，两位华尔街大佬最终在多年后达成和解，甚至一起共进晚餐。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: You mentioned Herbalife. Can you take me through the saga of that? It's historic.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你提到了康宝莱（Herbalife）。你能带我回顾一下那段历史吗？那是具有历史意义的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we at Pershing Square, short of very few stocks. And the reason for that is short selling is just inherently treacherous.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们在潘兴广场（Pershing Square）做空（short）的股票非常少。原因在于，做空从本质上来说就是极其凶险的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So if you buy a stock, it's called going long, right? You're buying something, your worst case scenario is you lose your whole investment. You buy a stock for a hundred, it goes to zero, you loose a hundred dollars, right? Per share. You buy one share of a hundred.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以如果你买入一只股票，这被称为做多（going long），对吧？你买了一样东西，你最坏的情况就是亏掉你全部的投资。你花100美元买了一只股票，它跌到了零，你亏了100美元，对吧？每股如此。你花100美元买了一股。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You shortest stock at a hundred what it means is you borrow the security from someone else.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你在100美元的价位做空一只股票，它的意思是，你从别人那里借来这只证券。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The analogy I gave that made it easy for people to understand, it's a bit like you think, silver coins are gonna go down in value and you have a friend who's got a whole pile of these 1880 silver US dollars, and you think they're gonna go down in value and you say, hey, can I borrow 10 of those dollars from you?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我举过一个能让人们很容易理解的比喻：这有点像，你认为银币会贬值，而你有个朋友正好有一大堆1880年的美国银元，你觉得它们会贬值，于是你说，嘿，我能向你借10个银元吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He's like, sure, but what are you gonna pay me to borrow? I'll pay you interest on the value of the dollars today.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他会说，当然可以，但你要付我什么借用费呢？我说，我会按照这些银元今天的价值付给你利息。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So you borrow the dollars that are worth a hundred dollars each today. You pay 'em interest while you're borrowing them.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以你借来了这些今天每枚价值100美元的银元。在你借用的期间，你要付给他利息。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then you go sell 'em in the market for a hundred dollars. That's what they're worth.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后你跑到市场上以100美元的价格把它们卖掉。这就是它们当时的价值。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then they go down in price to 50. You go back in, you buy the silver dollars back at $50 and you give 'em back to your friend.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后它们的价格跌到了50美元。你回到市场，以50美元的价格把银元买回来，然后再还给你的朋友。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Your friend is complete fine. You borrowed 10, you gave him the 10 back and he got interest in the meantime, he's happy he made money on his coin collection.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你的朋友毫发无损。你借了10枚，你还给他10枚，同时他还赚了利息，他很高兴能在自己的硬币收藏上赚到钱。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You however made $50 times the 10 coins, you made 500 bucks. That's pretty good.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然而你赚了50美元乘以10枚硬币，你赚了500块钱。这相当不错。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The problem with that is, what if you sell them and they go from a hundred to a thousand, now you're gonna have to go buy them back and you gotta pay whatever, $10,000 to buy back coins.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这个问题在于，如果你卖掉它们之后，它们从100美元涨到了1000美元呢？现在你将不得不去把它们买回来，而你必须支付，不管多少，10000美元去买回硬币。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know that you sold for 500, you're gonna lose $9,500. And there's no limit, right? To how high a stock price can go. Companies go to $3 trillion in value, right?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道你当时只卖了500美元，你将会亏损9500美元。而且这是没有上限的，对吧？股价能涨到多高是没有上限的。公司的市值能涨到3万亿美元，对吧？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Tesla, a lot of people shorted Tesla saying, oh, it's overvalued, he's never gonna be able to make a successful electric car. Well, I'm sure they're people went bankrupt shorting Tesla. That's why we didn't short stocks.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 以特斯拉（Tesla）为例，很多人做空特斯拉说，哦，它被高估了，他永远造不出一辆成功的电动车。嗯，我敢肯定有很多人因为做空特斯拉而破产了。这就是为什么我们不做空股票的原因。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But I was presented with this actual reporter that covered the other short investment we made early in the career. A company called MBIA came to me and said, "Bill, I found this incredible company. You gotta take a look at it. It's a total fraud and they're scamming poor people".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但是我遇到了这个曾经报道过我们职业生涯早期另一笔做空投资的记者。关于一家叫做MBIA的公司，有人找到我说：“比尔，我发现了一家不可思议的公司。你必须看看它。它是一个彻头彻尾的骗局，而且他们在诈骗穷人”。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And we should say that NBIA was a very successful short.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 而且我们应该说明一下，MBIA（注：原文NBIA为转录错误）是一次非常成功的做空。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was, big part of it was that we used a different kind of instrument to short it where we reversed that sort of, we made the investment asymmetric in our favor, meaning put up a small amount of money if it works and make a fortune.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 确实如此，其中很大一部分原因是我们使用了一种不同的工具来做空它，我们扭转了那种局面，我们让这笔投资在不对称性上对我们有利，意思是，投入很少的钱，如果成功了就能赚一大笔。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Whereas short selling is you kind of sell something and you have to buy it back at a higher price.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而传统的做空是，你卖出一样东西，（如果亏损）你不得不在更高的价格把它买回来。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Herbalife didn't have the, what's called credit default swaps that you could purchase. Not a big enough company. You didn't have enough debt outstanding to be able to implement it. You had to short the stock in order to make it as successful to bet against the company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 康宝莱没有所谓的信用违约互换（credit default swaps）可供你购买。它不是一家足够大的公司。你没有足够多的未偿债务来实施这种操作。你必须直接做空它的股票，才能成功地与这家公司对赌。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the more work I did in the company, the more I was like, oh my God, this thing's an incredible scam. You know, that they purport to sell weight loss shakes, but in reality they're selling kind of a fake business plan. And the people that adopt it lose money.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我在研究这家公司上下的功夫越深，我就越觉得，我的天哪，这玩意是个不可思议的骗局。你知道，他们声称在卖减肥奶昔（weight loss shakes），但实际上他们卖的是一种虚假的商业计划。而那些采纳它的人都亏钱了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And they go after poor people. They go after actually in many cases, undocumented immigrants who are pitched on the American Dream opportunity. And because they have few other options because they can't get legal employment, they become Herbalife distributors.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且他们专门盯上穷人。实际上在很多情况下，他们盯上的是那些被推销了“美国梦”机会的无证移民。因为这些人没有多少其他选择，因为他们找不到合法的工作，所以他们成了康宝莱的经销商。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it's a business where you, so-called multi-level marketing or multi-level marketing, sort of the name for a legitimate company like this or it's a pyramid scheme where basically your sales are really only coming from people who you convinced to buy the product by getting them into the business. That's precisely what this company is.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而这是一门你所谓的传销（multi-level marketing）生意，或者说多层次营销是对这类合法公司的一种称呼，但实际上它就是一个金字塔骗局（pyramid scheme），基本上你真正的销售额只来自于那些被你忽悠买产品并拉进这门生意的人。这正是这家公司的真面目。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And like, okay, shorting a pyramid scheme seems like one, we'll make a bunch of money, but two, the world will be behind us because they're harming poor people. You know, regulators will get interested in a company like this.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我就觉得，好吧，做空一个金字塔骗局看起来：第一，我们能赚一大笔钱；第二，全世界都会站在我们这边，因为他们在伤害穷人。你知道的，监管机构会对这样的公司产生兴趣的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And we thought the FTC is gonna shut this thing down. And we did a ton of work and I gave this sort of epic presentation laying out all the facts. Stock got completely crushed and we were on our way.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们当时认为联邦贸易委员会（FTC）肯定会关停这玩意。我们做了大量的工作，然后我做了一场可谓是史诗级的演示汇报，陈列了所有的事实。股票被彻底压垮了，我们胜券在握。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the government actually got interested early on, launched an investigation pretty early, SEC and otherwise, but then a guy named Carl Icahn showed up and we have a little bit of a backstory, but his motivations here were not really principally driven by thinking HerbalLife was a good company, he thought it was a good way to hurt me.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且政府实际上很早就产生了兴趣，很早就启动了调查，包括美国证券交易委员会（SEC）以及其他机构，但随后一个名叫卡尔·伊坎（Carl Icahn）的家伙出现了。我们之间有一点背景故事，但他在这里的动机，主要并不是因为他认为康宝莱是一家好公司，而是他认为这是一个伤害我的好方法。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So he basically bought a bunch of stock and said it was a really great company. And you know, Carl at least at the time, threw his weight around a bit. I was a credible investor, had a lot of resources and that began the saga.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他基本上就是买入了一大堆股票，然后说它真的是一家极好的公司。而且你知道，至少在当时，卡尔还是挺喜欢仗势施压（threw his weight around）的。我是一个有信誉的投资者，拥有很多资源，于是这段恩怨史就开始了。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So he was, we should say, a legendary investor himself.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么他，我们应该说，他本身也是一位传奇的投资者。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'd say legendary in a sense. Yes, for sure. An iconic Carl icon.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我会说在某种意义上是传奇。是的，毫无疑问。一个标志性的“卡尔神像（Carl icon，玩了Icahn名字的谐音梗）”。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Oh, that's very well done.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 哦，这梗玩得真漂亮。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah. So definitely a iconic investor.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。所以绝对是一位标志性的投资者。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So what was the backstory between the two of you?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么你们两人之间的背景故事是什么？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I mentioned that I had another period of time where significant business challenges, this was my first fund called Gotham Partners. And we had a court stop a transaction between a private company we owned in a public company. It's another long story.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我之前提到过，我还经历过另一段面临重大商业挑战的时期，那是我的第一只基金，叫作高谭合伙人（Gotham Partners）。我们曾被法院叫停了我们拥有的一家私营公司与一家上市公司之间的交易。那是另一个很长的故事了。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I would love to hear it as well.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我也很想听听这个故事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But it was really my deciding to wind up my former fund. And we owned a big stake in a company called Harwood Realty Partners, which was a company that owned real estate assets and it was worth a lot more than we was trading, but it needed an activist to really unlock the value. And we were in fact going outta business and didn't have the time or the resources to pursue it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但那确实促使我决定清算（wind up）我之前的基金。我们当时在一家名为霍尔伍德房地产合伙人（Hallwood/Harwood Realty Partners）的公司拥有很大一部分股份，这是一家拥有房地产资产的公司，它的价值远高于我们当时的交易价格，但它需要一位激进投资者来真正释放其价值。而我们当时实际上正面临破产关门，没有时间也没有资源去推进这件事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I sold it to Carl Icahn, and I sold it to him at a premium to where the stock was trading. I think the stock was like 66, I sold it to him for 80, but it was worth about 150.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我把它卖给了卡尔·伊坎，而且我是以高于当时股票交易价的溢价卖给他的。我想当时股价大概是66美元，我以80美元的价格卖给了他，但它大概值150美元。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I said, look, and part of the deal was Carl's like, look, I'll give you Schmuck Insurance. You know I'll make you sure you don't look bad.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我当时说，看，而交易的一部分是，卡尔大概的意思是：看，我会给你一份“傻瓜保险”（Schmuck Insurance）。你知道的，我会确保你看起来不会显得太蠢。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I had another deal at a higher price without Schmuck Insurance. When I deal with Carl at a lower price with Schmuck Insurance and the way the Schmuck Insurance went, he said, look, "Bill, if I sell the stock in the next three years for a higher price I'll give you 50% of my profit". That's a pretty good deal.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我原本有另一笔出价更高的交易，但不带“傻瓜保险”。当我以较低的价格和卡尔达成这笔带有“傻瓜保险”的交易时，这份“傻瓜保险”的内容是，他说：“听着，比尔，如果我在未来三年内以更高的价格卖掉这只股票，我分给你50%的利润”。那是一笔相当不错的交易。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we made that deal and 'cause I was dealing with Carl Icahn who had a reputation for being difficult. I was very focused on the agreement and we didn't want him to be able to be cute.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们达成了那笔交易，而因为我在和卡尔·伊坎打交道，他可是以难搞出名的。我非常专注于协议的拟定，我们不想让他在条款上耍滑头（be cute）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So the agreement said if he sells or otherwise transfers his shares. And we came up with a definition to include every version of sale. Okay. 'cause you know, it's Carl.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以协议上写着，如果他出售“或以其他方式转让”（otherwise transfers）他的股份。我们拟定了一个定义，囊括了任何形式的出售。好的。因为你知道的，这可是卡尔。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Well, he then buys the stake and then makes a bid for the company. And plan is for him to get the company. And he bids like 120 a share.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 结果，他买下股份后，就开始对公司进行竞价收购。他的计划是把公司弄到手。他大概出价每股120美元。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the company hires Morgan Stanley to sell itself and he raises bid to 125, and then 130, eventually gets sold, I don't remember the exact price, let's say $145 a share.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 然后公司雇了摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）来将自己卖掉，他把出价提高到125美元，然后是130美元，最终公司被卖掉了，我不记得确切的价格了，我们就说是每股145美元吧。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And Carl's not the winning bidder and he sells his stock, or he loses or transfers his shares for $145 a share. So he owes actually our investors the difference between 145 and 80 times 50%.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而卡尔并没有竞标成功，他卖掉了他的股票，或者说他以每股145美元的价格失去了或转让了他的股份。因此，他实际上欠我们投资者145美元和80美元之间差价的50%。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I had like lawyers never like you to put like a arithmetic example. I put like a formula like out of a math book in the document so there can be no confusion. It was only an eight page, really simple agreement.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而我当时，比如律师们从来不喜欢你在文件里放什么算术例子。但我在文件里放了一个就像数学书里一样的公式，这样就不会产生任何歧义。那只是一份仅仅八页的、非常简单的协议。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So the deal closes and he's supposed to pay us in two business days or three business days. I wait a few business days, no money comes in.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 于是交易完成了，他本来应该在两个工作日或三个工作日内付款给我们。我等了几个工作日，钱没有进账。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I called Carl, I'm like, "Carl, congratulations on her on the Hal Realty". Thanks Bill. I said, "Carl, I just wanna remind you, I know it's been a few years, but you know we have this agreement, remember the Schmuck Insurance?" He's like, yeah. I said, "Well, you owe us our Schmuck Insurance".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我打电话给卡尔，我大概是说：“卡尔，恭喜你在霍尔伍德房地产（Hallwood Realty）这事上大赚一笔”。他说，谢谢比尔。我说：“卡尔，我只是想提醒你一下，我知道已经过去几年了，但你知道我们之间有这个协议，还记得那个‘傻瓜保险’吗？”他说，记得。我说：“那么，你欠我们‘傻瓜保险’的钱了”。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He said, "What do you mean I didn't sell my shares?" I said, "Do you still have the shares?" He says, "No". I said, "What happened to them?" Well, the company did a merger for cash and they took away my shares, but I didn't sell them. Do you understand what happened?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他说：“你什么意思？我可没有卖我的股份。”我说：“那你手里还有那些股份吗？”他说：“没有”。我说：“那它们去哪了？”他说，哦，公司进行了一次现金合并（merger for cash），他们把我的股份拿走了，但我并没有出售（sell）它们。你能明白发生了什么吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I said, "Carl, I'm gonna have to sue you". He said, "Sue me, I'm gonna sue you". He says, so I sued him and the legal system in America can take some time.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我说：“卡尔，那我只能起诉你了”。他说：“起诉我吧，我还要起诉你呢”。于是我起诉了他，而美国的法律系统走程序是需要花些时间的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And what he would do is we sued and then we won in the whatever New York Supreme Court, and then he appealed and you can appeal like six months after the case.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他的做法是，我们起诉了，然后我们在不管是什么纽约最高法院赢了官司，然后他提起了上诉，你大概可以在案件判决后的六个月内上诉。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: We waited to the 179th day and then he would appeal. And then we fought it at the next level. And then he would appeal. And he appealed all the way to the Supreme Court. Of course the Supreme Court wouldn't take the case. It took years.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们一直等到第179天，然后他就会提起上诉。然后我们在下一级法院继续打。然后他再上诉。他一路把官司打到了美国最高法院（Supreme Court）。当然，最高法院不会受理这种案子。这耗费了数年时间。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now as part of our agreement, we got 9% interest on the money that he owed us. So I viewed it as my Carl Icahn money market account with a much higher interest rate. And eventually I won.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 现在，作为我们协议的一部分，他欠我们的钱我们要收取9%的利息。所以我把它看作是我在卡尔·伊坎那里的货币市场账户（money market account），只不过有着高得多的利率。最终我赢了。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: What was the amount?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 金额是多少？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Just tiny. Now, it was material to my investors. So my first fund, I wound it down but I wanted to maximize everything from my investors, right? These are the people backed me at 26 years old. I was right outta business school, had no experience and they supported me. So I'm gonna go to the end of the earth for them.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 非常小。不过，这对我的投资者来说是实质性的（material）。对于我的第一只基金，我虽然清算了它，但我想为我的投资者实现利益最大化，对吧？这些都是在我26岁时支持过我的人。我当时刚从商学院毕业，毫无经验，而他们支持了我。所以我愿意为他们赴汤蹈火（go to the end of the earth）。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And four and a half million relative to our fund at the end was maybe 400 million so it wasn't a huge number, but it was a big percentage of what was left after I sold all our liquid security. So I was fighting for it.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 450万美元相对于我们基金在末期的规模（也许是4亿美元），所以这不算是个大数目，但它在我卖掉所有流动证券后剩下的资产中占了很大比例。所以我必须为之而战。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So we got four and a half million plus interest for eight years or something. That's how long the litigation took. So we got about double. So he owed me $9 million, which to Carl Icahn, who had probably a $20 billion net worth at the time this was nothing. But to me it was like, okay, this is my investor's money, I'm gonna get it back.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们拿到了450万美元，加上八年左右的利息。那就是诉讼所耗费的时间。所以我们差不多拿到了一倍的钱。因此他欠我900万美元，这对于当时净资产大概有200亿美元的卡尔·伊坎来说，这根本不算什么。但对我来说，这就意味着，好吧，这是我投资者的钱，我一定要把它拿回来。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so eventually we won. Eventually he paid and then he called me, he said, "Bill, congratulations now we can be friends and we can invest, do some investing together". I'm like, "Carl, fuck you".
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以最终我们赢了。最终他付了钱，然后他打电话给我，他说：“比尔，恭喜你，现在我们可以做朋友了，我们可以一起投资，合作搞点投资”。我当时就说：“卡尔，去你的（fuck you）”。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: You actually said fuck you?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你真的说了“去你的”？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: (laughs) Yes. And I'm not that kind of person generally, but you know, he made eight years to pay me, not me, even me, my investors money they owed. And so he probably didn't like that.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: （大笑）是的。我通常不是那样的人，但是你知道，他拖了八年才付钱给我——不是我，甚至不是我的钱，是他欠我投资者的钱。所以他可能对那句脏话不太爽。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So he kind of hung around in the weeds waiting for an opportunity. And then from there I started Pershing. We had to kind of straight line up, we were up the first 12 years we could do nothing wrong, then Valiant, Herbalife, right? He sees an opportunity and he buys the stock. He figures he is gonna run me off the road. And so that was the beginning of that.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他就好像潜伏在暗处等待机会。后来从那起我创办了潘兴广场（Pershing）。我们差不多是一路直线上升，前12年我们顺风顺水无往不利，然后碰上了威朗制药（Valiant）、康宝莱（Herbalife），对吧？他看到了机会，于是他买入了康宝莱的股票。他盘算着要把我逼上绝路（run me off the road）。所以那就是这场恩怨的开端。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And kind of the moment, and I think it's the, I'm told by CNBC, it's the most watched segment in business television history. They're interviewing me about the Herbalife investment on CNBC. And then Carl Icahn calls into the show and we have kind of a interesting conversation where he calls me all kinds of names and stuff. So it was a moment, it was a moment in my life.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 那算是一个标志性的时刻，而且我认为它是——CNBC告诉我，那是商业电视史上收视率最高的一个片段。他们当时在CNBC上采访我关于康宝莱的投资。然后卡尔·伊坎把电话打进了节目现场，我们进行了一场相当“有趣”的对话，在对话中他用各种脏话骂我之类的。所以那真的是一个时刻，那是我生命中的一个历史性时刻。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: It wasn't public information that he was long on Herbalife.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 他做多（long）康宝莱在当时并不是公开信息。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He didn't yet disclose he had a stake. But he was just telling me how stupid I was to be short this company.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他当时还没有披露他持有了股份。但他就是在那儿告诉我，做空这家公司的我是有多么愚蠢。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So for him, it wasn't about the fundamentals of the company, it was about, it was just personal.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以对他来说，这并不是关于这家公司的基本面，而纯粹是个人恩怨。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: 100%.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 100%是的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Is there a part of you that regrets saying fuck you on that phone call to Carl Icahn?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 在那通打给卡尔·伊坎的电话中说出“去你的”，你心里有没有一部分感到后悔？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: No. (both laughing) I generally have no regrets because I'm very happy with where I am now. And I feel like it's a bit like you step on the butterfly in the forest and the world changes because you know, every action has a reaction. You know if you're happy with who you are, where you are in life, every decision you've made, good or bad over the course of your life got you to precisely where you are. I wouldn't change anything.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 没有。（两人大笑）我通常没有任何遗憾，因为我对现在的处境非常满意。我觉得这有点像你在森林里踩死了一只蝴蝶，然后整个世界就改变了，因为你知道，每个行为都会产生连锁反应。你知道，如果你对自己是谁、对自己现在的生活状态感到满意，那么你一生中所做的每一个决定，无论是好是坏，都恰好把你带到了你现在所在的位置。我不会改变任何事情。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: He said, you lost money on Herbalife. So he did the long-term battle.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 他说，你在康宝莱上亏了钱。所以他打赢了这场长期战役。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: What he did is he got on the board of the company and used the company's financial resources plus his stake in the business to squeeze us. And a squeeze in short selling is where you restrict the supply of the securities so that there's a scarcity. And then you encourage people to buy the stock and you drive the stock up.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他所做的是，他进入了那家公司的董事会，并利用公司的财务资源加上他在该企业中的股份来逼空（squeeze）我们。而做空中的“逼空”（short squeeze）是指，你限制证券的供应，从而制造出一种稀缺性。然后你鼓励人们买入这只股票，从而把股价推高。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And as I explained before, you short those coins at 10, they go to 100, you can lose theoretically an unlimited amount of money. And that's scary. That's why we don't short stocks. That's why I didn't short stocks before this. But this was, unfortunately I had to have the personal lesson.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 正如我之前解释的那样，你在10美元做空那些硬币，它们涨到了100美元，理论上你可以亏损无限的钱。那是非常可怕的。这就是为什么我们不做空股票的原因。这也是为什么我在此之前没有做空过股票的原因。但这算是，很不幸我不得不亲自上的一堂个人教训课。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So how much was for him personal versus part of sort of the game of investing?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么对他来说，这其中有多大成分是个人恩怨，又有多大成分是某种投资游戏的博弈？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Well, he thought he could make money doing this. He wouldn't have done it if he did otherwise. He thought his bully pulpit, his ability to create a short squeeze, his control over the company would enable him to achieve this. And he made a billion, we lost a billion.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 嗯，他认为他可以通过这么做赚到钱。如果不是这样，他也不会这么做的。他认为他那霸道的影响力（bully pulpit），他制造逼空的能力，以及他对公司的控制力，能够让他实现这一目标。结果他赚了10个亿，我们亏了10个亿。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So you think it was a financial decision outta personal?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以你认为这是出于个人恩怨而做出的财务决策？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: It was a personal decision to pursue it. But he was waiting for an opportunity where he could make money at our expense. And it was kind of a brilliant opportunity for him.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 追击我（pursue it）是出于个人决定的。但他一直在等待一个能够以牺牲我们为代价来赚钱的机会。而这对它来说是一个绝佳的机会。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now the irony is, well first of all, the FTC found a few interesting facts. So one, the government launched an investigation, they ended up settling with the company and the company paid $220 million in fines.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如今讽刺的是，嗯，首先，联邦贸易委员会（FTC）发现了一些有趣的事实。第一，政府启动了调查，他们最终与该公司达成了和解，该公司支付了2.2亿美元的罚款。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I met a professor from Berkeley a couple years ago who told me that he had been hired by the government as their expert on Herbalife. And he got access to all their data, was able to prove that they're a pyramid scheme but the government ultimately settled with Carl 'cause they were afraid they could possibly lose in court so they settled with him.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 几年前我遇到了一位来自伯克利大学（Berkeley）的教授，他告诉我他曾被政府聘请为调查康宝莱的专家。他获得了康宝莱所有的数据权限，并能够证明他们就是一个金字塔传销骗局（pyramid scheme），但政府最终与卡尔达成了和解，因为他们害怕可能在法庭上败诉，所以他们选择了与他和解。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But if you look at the stock, if we'd been able to stay short the entire time, we would've made a bunch of money. 'cause the stock had a $6 billion market cap and we shorted it today as probably a billion, a billion and a half.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但如果你看看那只股票，如果我们能一直坚持做空到底，我们本可以赚一大笔钱的。因为这只股票当时的市值是60亿美元，如果放到今天来看我们的做空，市值大概只有10亿、15亿美元了。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So you left the short or whatever that's called--
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以你退出了做空或者不管它叫什么——
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Covered. We closed it out. well we sold Valiant, we covered Herbalife. That was the resetting moment for the firm. 'Cause it would just psychologically, and you know, the beauty of investing is you don't need to make it back the way you lost it you can just take your loss, by the way, losses are valuable and that the government allows you to take a tax loss and that can shelter other gains. And we just refocused,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 平仓（Covered）。我们把它平仓了。是的，我们卖掉了威朗制药（Valiant），平仓了康宝莱。那是公司的重置时刻（resetting moment）。因为仅仅在心理上就必须这么做，而且你知道，投资的美妙之处在于，你不需要从你在哪里跌倒的地方再赚回来（不需死磕一只股票），你可以直接认赔出局——顺便说一句，亏损也是有价值的，因为政府允许你用投资亏损来抵税，从而可以庇护你的其他收益。于是我们重新调整了重心。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Can you say one thing you really like about Carl Icahn and one thing you really don't like about him?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你能说一件你真正喜欢卡尔·伊坎的事情，以及一件你真正不喜欢他的事情吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sure. So he's a very charming guy. So in the midst of all this at the Hall Wood one, he took me out for dinner to his favorite Italian restaurant.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然。他是一个非常有魅力的家伙。就在霍尔伍德（Hallwood）那桩官司的期间，他带我出去吃晚饭，去了他最喜欢的意大利餐厅。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Really?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 真的吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah. We were in the middle of the litigation to see if he could resolve it. And he offered 10 million in my favorite charity. The problem was that it wasn't my money, it was my investors' money so I couldn't settle with him on that basis.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。我们当时正处于诉讼的中间，看看他能否解决这件事。他提出要向我最喜欢的慈善机构捐款1000万美元。问题在于那不是我的钱，那是我投资者的钱，所以我不能在那种基础上与他和解。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But I had the chance to spend real time with him at dinner. He's funny, he's charismatic, he's got incredible stories. And you know, actually I made peace with him over time. We had a little hug out on CNBC even had him to my house, believe it or not. I hosted something called the Finance Cup, which is a tennis tournament between people in finance and Europe and the US and we had the event at my house and one guy thought to invite Carl Icahn. And so we had Carl Icahn on there to present awards. And again, I have to say I kinda liked the guy, but I didn't like him much during this.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但我有机会在晚餐时与他度过了真实的时光。他很幽默，他很有个人魅力，他肚子里有许多不可思议的故事。而且你知道，随着时间的推移，我实际上与他达成了和解。我们后来在CNBC上还小小地拥抱了一下，甚至信不信由你，我还邀请他去过我家。我主办了一个叫做“金融杯”（Finance Cup）的赛事，那是一个在金融界人士、欧洲和美国之间举行的网球锦标赛，我们把活动办在了我家，然后有个人提议邀请卡尔·伊坎。于是我们请卡尔·伊坎在那里颁发了奖项。话说回来，我得说我有点喜欢这家伙了，但在这段恩怨期间我确实很不待见他。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Because at least from the outsider perspective, there's a bit of a personal vengeance here or anger can build up. Do you ever worry the personal attacks between powerful investors can cloud your judgment of what is the right financial decision?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 因为至少从局外人的角度来看，这里面带着一点个人复仇的色彩，或者说愤怒可能会积聚。你是否曾担心过，强大投资者之间的个人攻击会蒙蔽你对什么才是正确的财务决策的判断？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think it's possible, but again, I try to be extremely economically rational. And actually the last seven years have been quite peaceful. I really have not been an activist in the old form for many years. And the vast majority of even our activist investments historically were very polite, respectful cases.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为这是有可能的，但话说回来，我努力做到在经济上极度理性。实际上过去的七年相当平静。我已经有很多年没有以那种老旧的形式做激进投资者了。而且即使在历史上，我们绝大多数的激进投资也是非常礼貌、相互尊重的案例。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The press of course focuses on the more interesting ones. Like Chipotle was one of the best investments we ever made. We got four of eight board seats and we worked with management and it was a great outcome. I don't think there's ever ever been a story about it. And the stock's up almost 10 times from the time we hired Brian Nichols, CEO. But it's not interesting because there was no battle. Whereas Herbalife, of course, was like an epic battle, even Canadian Pacific. So for a period there, you most people, when they meet me in person, they're like, wow, Bill, you seem like a really nice guy. But I thought, you know, so, but things have been pretty calm for the last seven years.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 媒体当然会把焦点放在那些更有趣的案例上。比如Chipotle是我们有史以来做过的最棒的投资之一。我们拿到了八个董事会席位中的四个，我们与管理层合作，结果极佳。我认为从来没有过任何关于它的报道故事。自从我们雇佣了CEO布莱恩·尼科尔斯（Brian Nichols）以来，股价上涨了近10倍。但这并不有趣，因为这其中没有经历过争斗。而康宝莱，当然，就像是一场史诗级的战役，甚至加拿大太平洋铁路也是。所以在那段时期，你知道，大多数人在亲自见到我时都会说：“哇，比尔，你看起来像个真正的大好人啊”。但我心里想，你知道的，所以，过去七年来事情一直都很平静。
📝 本节摘要：
本章中，话题转向了近期的社会与政治事件。阿克曼首先分享了他对10月7日哈马斯袭击以色列事件的看法，并澄清了他长期以来对巴勒斯坦平民困境的同情与支持。他指出，加沙地带的悲剧源于哈马斯多年的恐怖主义统治与洗脑教育，并畅想了未来由海湾国家主导治理下实现和平与繁荣的可能。随后，话题转回美国国内，阿克曼严厉批评了哈佛大学等常春藤名校在应对校园“反犹”抗议时的迟钝与失败。他详细回顾了自己试图介入调解却“吃闭门羹”的经过，以及前任哈佛校长克劳丁·盖伊（Claudine Gay）等人在国会听证会上的灾难性表现——面对“呼吁对犹太人进行种族灭绝是否违反校规”的质询时，校长们竟含糊其辞地回答“取决于语境”。阿克曼一针见血地指出，这些在“微表情冒犯”上极度敏感的高校，在所谓的“言论自由”上存在着极大的虚伪性和双重标准。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Of course there's more than just investing that your life is about, especially recently. Lemme just ask you about what's going on in the world. First, what was your reaction and what is your reaction and thoughts with respect to the October 7th attacks by Hamas on Israel?,
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 当然，你的生活不仅只有投资，尤其是最近。让我问问你对世界上正在发生的事情的看法。首先，对于10月7日哈马斯袭击以色列的事件，你当时的反应是什么？你现在的想法又是什么？,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, it's a sad world that we live in. That one we have terrorists and two that we can have such barbaric terrorism and yeah, just a reminder of that.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，我们生活在一个悲惨的世界中。第一，我们这个世界存在恐怖分子；第二，竟然会发生如此野蛮的恐怖主义行径，是的，这只是对这一残酷现实的一次提醒。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So there's several things I can ask here. First on the, your views on the prospects of the Middle East, but also on the reaction to this war and in the United States, especially on university campuses. So first lemme just ask, you've said that you're pro-Palestinian. Can you explain what you mean by that?,
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以这里我有几个问题想问。首先是你对中东前景的看法，其次是这场战争在美国国内引发的反应，特别是在大学校园里。那么首先让我问一下，你曾说过你是支持巴勒斯坦人（pro-Palestinian）的。你能解释一下这是什么意思吗？,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, with all of my posts about Israel, I'm obviously very supportive of the country of Israel. Israel's right to exist, Israel's right to defend itself. My Arab friends, my Palestinian friends were kind of saying, "Hey Bill, where are you?" You know, what about Palestinian lives?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，从我所有关于以色列的帖子里可以看出，我显然是非常支持以色列这个国家的。以色列有生存的权利，也有自卫的权利。而我的阿拉伯朋友、我的巴勒斯坦朋友们差不多是在问：“嘿，比尔，你的立场在哪？”你知道，“巴勒斯坦人的命就不重要了吗？”
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I was pretty early in my life, a guy named Marty Parrott, who's been important to me over the course of my life, a professor, or first investor in my fund introduced me to Neri, asked me when I right outta school to join this nonprofit called the Jerusalem Foundation, which was a charitable foundation that supported Teddy Collick when he was mayor of Jerusalem.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 早在我的青年时期，一个叫马蒂·帕罗特（Marty Parrott）的人——他是我生命中非常重要的人，一位教授，也是我基金的第一位投资者，更是把我介绍给内里（Neri）的媒人——在我刚毕业时邀请我加入了一个名为“耶路撒冷基金会”（Jerusalem Foundation）的非营利组织，这是一个在特迪·科勒克（Teddy Kollek）担任耶路撒冷市长时支持他的慈善基金会。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I ended up becoming the youngest chairman of the Jerusalem Foundation in my 30s and I spent some time in Israel. And the early philanthropic stuff I did with the Jerusalem Foundation, I thing I was most interested in was kind of the Palestinian, the plight of the Palestinians and kind of peaceful coexistence.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 后来我在30多岁时成为了耶路撒冷基金会最年轻的主席，并且我在以色列度过了一段时间。我在耶路撒冷基金会所做的早期慈善工作中，我最感兴趣的事情，其实是巴勒斯坦人、巴勒斯坦人的困境，以及某种程度上的和平共处。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so I had kind of an early kind of perspective, as chairman of the Jerusalem Foundation I would go into Arab communities and I would meet the families in their homes. You know, you get a sense of the humanity of a people and I care about humanity. I generally take the side of people who've been disadvantaged.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我很早就有了一种视角，作为耶路撒冷基金会的主席，我会走进阿拉伯社区，去他们家里拜访那些家庭。你知道，你能感受到一个民族的人性，而我关心人性。我通常会站在处于弱势地位的人们这一边。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Almost all of our philanthropic work has been in that capacity, so that's sort of my natural perspective. But I don't take the side of terrorists ever, obviously. And the whole thing is just a tragedy.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我们几乎所有的慈善工作都是在这样的身份下进行的，所以这算是我的自然视角。但我绝对不会站在恐怖分子那一边，这是显而易见的。而整件事就是一场悲剧。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So to you, this is about Hamas, not about Palestine?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以对你来说，这关乎哈马斯（Hamas），而不是巴勒斯坦？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yes. I mean the problem of course is when Hamas controls for the last almost 20 years, has controlled Gaza including the education system, they're educating, you know, you see these training videos of kindergartners indoctrinating them into hating Jews and Israel.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。我的意思是，问题当然在于当哈马斯在过去近20年里控制了加沙，包括控制了教育系统时，他们在进行这种教育——你知道，你看到那些幼儿园儿童的训练视频，给他们灌输仇恨犹太人和以色列的思想。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And of course you don't like to see Palestinians celebrating some of those early videos of October 7th with dead buddies in the back of trucks and people cheering. So it's a really unfortunate situation.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然，你绝不会喜欢看到巴勒斯坦人在10月7日早期的一些视频中，对着卡车后车厢里的尸体庆祝、欢呼。所以这真的是一个极其不幸的局面。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But I think about a Palestinian life is important and as valuable as a Jewish life, as a American life. And you know, what do people really want? They want a place, they want a home. They wanna be able to feed their family. They want a job that generates the resources to feed their family. They want their kids to have a better life than they've had. They want peace. I think these are basic human things.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但我认为，一个巴勒斯坦人的生命很重要，与一个犹太人的生命、一个美国人的生命具有同等价值。而且你知道，人们真正想要的是什么？他们想要一个栖身之所，想要一个家。他们想要能够养活家人。他们想要一份能产生资源养活家人的工作。他们希望自己的孩子能拥有比自己更好的生活。他们想要和平。我认为这些都是基本的人类诉求。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'm sure the vast majority of Palestinians share these views, but it's such an embedded situation with hatred and as I say, indoctrination. And then, you know, going back to incentives terrorists generate their resources by committing terrorism, and that's how they get funding.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我确信绝大多数巴勒斯坦人也认同这些观点，但这是一个根深蒂固、充满仇恨以及正如我所说的“洗脑灌输”的局面。然后，你知道的，回到我们之前谈过的“动机”——恐怖分子通过实施恐怖主义来获取资源，这就是他们获得资金的方式。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And there's a lot of graft. You know, it's a plutocracy, right? The top of the terrorist pyramid if you accept the numbers that are in the press, the top leaders have billions of dollars. You know, 40 billion or so has gone into Gaza and the West Bank over the last 30 years, a number like that. And a lot of it's disappeared into some combination of corruption or tunnels or weapons.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且这里面存在着大量的贪污腐败。你知道，这就是一个贪腐寡头政治（plutocracy），对吧？恐怖分子金字塔的顶端，如果你相信媒体上的数字，最高领导人们拥有数十亿美元。你知道，在过去30年里，大约有400亿美元流向了加沙和约旦河西岸，大概是这样的数字。而其中很大一部分都消失在了腐败、地道或武器这些东西里。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the tragedy is you look at what Singapore has achieved in the last 30 years, right?,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而真正的悲剧在于，你看看新加坡在过去30年里取得了怎样的成就，对吧？,
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Do you think that's still possible if we look into the future of 10, 20, 50 years from now?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你认为如果我们展望未来10年、20年、50年，那（像新加坡一样的繁荣）依然是可能的吗？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Absolutely. Peace comes with prosperity. You know, people are under the leadership of terrorists, you're not gonna have prosperity and you're not gonna have peace. And I think the Israelis withdrew in 2005 and fairly quickly Hamas took control of the situation that should never have been allowed to happen.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 绝对的。和平是伴随着繁荣而来的。你知道，人民如果处于恐怖分子的领导之下，你是不可能拥有繁荣的，你也不可能拥有和平。我认为以色列人在2005年撤出了加沙，然后很快哈马斯就控制了局面，这是本不该被允许发生的事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: If you think about I have the opportunity to spend call it an hour with Henry Kissinger, a few months before he passed away, we were talking about Gaza or in the early stage of the war. He said, look, you know, this is not, you could think about Gaza as a test of a two state solution. It's not looking good. These were his words.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果你回想一下，在亨利·基辛格（Henry Kissinger）去世前几个月，我有幸和他聊了大概一个小时，我们在讨论加沙，或者是处于战争早期的局势。他说，听着，你知道，这不是……你可以把加沙看作是“两国方案”（two state solution）的一次测试。目前看起来情况并不乐观。这是他的原话。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So the next time round the Palestinian people should have their own state, but it can't be a state where 40 billion resources goes in and is spent on weaponry and missiles and rockets going into Israel.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以下一次，巴勒斯坦人民应该拥有他们自己的国家，但这不能是一个有400亿资源涌入，却把钱全花在武器、导弹和射向以色列的火箭弹上的国家。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I do think a consortium of the Gulf States, the Saudis and others have to ultimately oversee the governance of this region. I think if that can happen, I think you can have peace, you can have prosperity. And I'm fundamentally an optimist.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我确实认为，一个由海湾国家、沙特人以及其他国家组成的联盟，最终必须对该地区的治理进行监督。我想如果能做到这一点，我认为你可以拥有和平，你可以拥有繁荣。而我本质上是一个乐观主义者。,
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So a coalition of governance. And you know that kind of approach can give the people a chance to flourish.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 所以是一个治理联盟。你知道，这种方法能给人民一个繁荣发展的机会。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: A hundred percent. I mean, look at what Dubai has accomplished with nomads in the desert, right? And that's become a major, it's a tourist destination. Gaza could have been a tourist destination.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 百分之百是的。我的意思是，看看迪拜带着沙漠里的游牧民族取得了怎样的成就，对吧？那已经成为一个主要的、旅游胜地。加沙本来也是可以成为一个旅游胜地的。,
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Take me through the saga of university presidents testifying on the topic of protests on college campuses, protests that call for the genocide of Jewish people and the university presidents, maybe you could describe it more precisely, but they fail to denounce the calls for genocide.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 带我回顾一下大学校长们就大学校园抗议活动作证的风波吧——那些呼吁对犹太人进行种族灭绝的抗议活动，而大学校长们，也许你能描述得更准确些，但他们未能公开谴责这些呼吁种族灭绝的言论。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So it begins on October 8th, probably. And you can do a compare and contrast with how Dartmouth managed the events of October 7th and the aftermath and how Harvard did.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这个风波大概始于10月8日。你可以对比一下达特茅斯学院（Dartmouth）是如何处理10月7日事件及其善后工作的，以及哈佛（Harvard）是如何处理的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And on October 8th or shortly thereafter, the Dartmouth president, who had been in her job for precisely the same number of months that the Harvard president had been in her job, the first thing she did is she got the most important professors of Middle East studies who were Arab and who were Jews. And they convened them and held an open session Q&A for students to talk about what's going on in the Middle East, and began an opportunity for common understanding among the student body.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 在10月8日或那之后不久，达特茅斯学院的校长——她上任的月数和哈佛校长的上任时间完全一样长——她做的第一件事，就是召集了中东研究领域最重要的教授，包括阿拉伯裔和犹太裔教授。他们召开了一次对学生开放的问答会议，谈论中东正在发生的事情，从而开启了一个让学生群体达成共识的机会。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And Dartmouth has been a relatively benign environment on this issue, and students are able to do work. And there aren't disruptive protests with people with bullhorns walking into classrooms interfering with, you know, people pay today $82,000 a year, which itself is crazy to go to Harvard. But imagine your family borrows the money or you borrow the money as a student, and your learning is disrupted by constant protest and the university does nothing.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而达特茅斯在这个问题上的环境相对温和，学生们能够正常学习。那里没有破坏性的抗议活动，没有拿着扩音喇叭走进教室干扰的人。你知道，人们今天每年花8万2千美元去上哈佛，这本身就很疯狂了。但想象一下，你的家庭借了钱，或者你作为学生贷了款，而你的学习却被不断的抗议所扰乱，大学却无动于衷。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, when George Floyd died the Harvard president wrote a very strong letter denouncing what had taken place and calling this an important moment in American history and took it incredibly seriously. Her first letter about October 7th was not that, let's put it that way. And then her second letter was not that. And then ultimately she was sort of forced by the board or the pressure to make a more public statement, but it was clear that it was hard for her to come to an understanding of this terrorist act.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，当乔治·弗洛伊德（George Floyd）死时，当时的哈佛校长写了一封非常强硬的信，谴责所发生的事情，称这是美国历史上一个重要的时刻，并极其严肃地对待此事。而关于10月7日，她的第一封信并不是那样的，我们就这么说吧。然后她的第二封信也不是。最终她多少是迫于董事会或外界的压力，才发表了一份更加公开的声明，但很明显，她很难对这一恐怖主义行径形成一种共识认知。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then the protests erupted on campus and they started out recently benign. And then the protesters got more and more aggressive in terms of violating university rules on things like bullying and the university did nothing. And that obviously for the Jewish students, the Israeli students, the Israeli faculty, Jewish faculty, created an incredibly uncomfortable environment. And the President seemed indifferent.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 随后校园里爆发了抗议活动，一开始还算温和。但后来抗议者变得越来越具攻击性，甚至在霸凌（bullying）等方面违反了校规，而大学却不作为。这显然为犹太学生、以色列学生、以色列教职工和犹太教职工，创造了一个极其令人不安的环境。而校长似乎漠不关心。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I went up to campus and I met with hundreds of students in small groups, in larger groups. And they're like, "Bill, why is the president doing nothing? Why is the administration doing nothing?" And that was really the beginning.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我去了校园，通过不同规模的聚会，见了数百名学生。他们纷纷问我：“比尔，为什么校长什么都不做？为什么校方管理层毫无作为？”这正是真正开始介入的起点。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I reached out to the president, reached out to the board of Harvard, I said, look, this thing is headed in the wrong direction and you need to fix it. And I have some ideas, love to share. And I got the Heisman, as they say, they just kept pushing off the opportunity for me to meet with the president and meet with the board.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我联系了校长，联系了哈佛的董事会，我说，听着，事情正朝着错误的方向发展，你们需要解决它。我有一些想法，很乐意分享。结果正如俗话说的，我“吃了闭门羹”（got the Heisman，美式橄榄球俚语，意为被生硬推开/拒绝），他们一直推迟让我与校长和董事会见面的机会。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And a certain point in time I pushed, you know, I'm kind of an activist when you push me, it reminded me of early days of activism where I couldn't get the CEO of Wendy's to return my call. I couldn't get the CEO of Harvard to take a meeting.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 到了某个时刻，我加大了施压的力度，你知道的，如果你逼我，我骨子里还是个激进投资者。这让我想起了早年做激进投资的日子，那时我连Wendy's快餐的CEO的电话都打不通。我现在竟然连哈佛CEO（校长）的一个会面都约不到。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then finally I spoke to the chairman of the board, a woman by the name of Penny Pritzker, who I knew from on a business school, a board with her. And it was, as I described, one of the more disappointing conversations in my life. And it did not seem, she seemed a bit like, if you will, deer in the headlights. They couldn't do this, they couldn't do that. The law was preventing them from doing various things.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 最后我终于和董事会主席通了话，一位名叫潘妮·普利兹克（Penny Pritzker）的女士，我因为曾经和她在一个商学院的董事会共事而认识她。而那次谈话，正如我所描述的，是我一生中最令人失望的谈话之一。这看起来不像……她似乎有点像，打个比方，被车灯吓傻的鹿（deer in the headlights/不知所措）。他们说这个做不了，那个也做不了。法律阻止他们采取各种行动。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that led to my first letter to the university. And I sort of ended the letter, sort of giving this president of Harvard a dared to be great speech. This is your opportunity you can fix this, this could be your legacy. I emailed it to the president and the board members whose email addresses I had, I posted it on Twitter. I got no response, no acknowledgement, nothing. And in fact the open dialogue I had with a couple of people on the board basically got shut down after that.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这促使我给大学写了第一封信。我在信的结尾，可以说是给了这位哈佛校长一篇“敢于伟大”（dare to be great）的演讲。我说这是你的机会，你可以解决这个问题，这可能成为你的政治遗产。我把它发给了校长和我持有他们邮箱的董事会成员，我也把它发在了Twitter上。结果我没有得到任何回复，没有任何确认收到的回执，什么都没有。事实上，在这之后，我和董事会中两三个人的开放对话通道也基本被切断了。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that led to letter number two, and then when the Congress led by Elise Stefanik announced an investigation of antisemitism on campus and concern about violations of law. The president was called to testify along with two other, the president of MIT, the president of University of Pennsylvania were having similar issues on campus.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这促使我写了第二封信。随后，由艾丽斯·斯特凡尼克（Elise Stefanik）主导的国会，宣布对校园反犹主义及涉嫌违法行为展开调查。哈佛校长被传唤作证，与她一起的还有另外两位在校园里面临类似问题的校长——麻省理工学院（MIT）校长和宾夕法尼亚大学（UPenn）校长。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I reached out to the president of Harvard and said, well, one, the Israeli government had gotten in touch and offered the opportunity for me to see the Hamas, if you will, GoPro film. And I said, you know what, I'd love to show it at Harvard. And they thought that would be a great idea. And so I partnered with the head of Harvard Habad, a guy named Rabbi Hershey, and we were putting the film up on campus and I thought if the president were to see this it would give her a lot of perspective on what happened, and she should see it before her testimony.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我联系了哈佛校长，我说，嗯，首先，以色列政府联系了我，让我有机会观看哈马斯的，如果可以这么说，GoPro随身视角的（大屠杀录像）影片。我说，你知道吗，我很想在哈佛放映它。他们认为这是个好主意。于是我和哈佛查巴德（Habad，犹太组织）的负责人、一位名叫赫希的拉比（Rabbi Hershey）合作，我们准备在校园里放映这部电影。我认为如果校长能看一看，这会让她对所发生的事情有更深刻的认识，她应该在作证前看看。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so I reached out to her, or actually Rabbi Hershey did. And he was told she'd be out of town and couldn't see it. And then I reached out to her again, said, look, I'll facilitate your attendance in the Congress, come see the film, I'll fly you down. That was rejected. And then she testified.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我联系了她，其实是赫希拉比联系的。结果被告知她要出差，看不了。然后我又联系了她，我说，听着，我会协助你出席国会听证，来看这部电影吧，我会派飞机接你过去。但这被拒绝了。然后，她就去作证了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I watched a good percentage, 80% of the testimony of all three presidents and it was an embarrassment to the country, embarrassment to the universities, they were evasive, they didn't answer questions, they were rude, they smirked, you know, they looked very disrespectful to our Congress.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我看了这三位校长很大一部分的作证，大概有80%，这简直是国家的耻辱，大学的耻辱。她们闪烁其词，避而不答，态度粗鲁，甚至还带着讥笑，你知道，她们对我们的国会显得极其不尊重。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And then of course there was that several minutes where finally at least Stefanik was not getting answers to her questions. And she said, you know, let me be kind of clear, what if protestors are calling for genocide for the Jews does that violate your rules on bullying and harassment?
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 紧接着当然就是那关键的几分钟，最终艾丽斯·斯特凡尼克得不到她问题的答案。于是斯特凡尼克说，你知道，让我说得更明确一点，如果抗议者呼吁对犹太人进行种族灭绝（genocide），这是否违反了你们关于霸凌和骚扰的校规？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the three of them basically gave the same answer. You know, it depends on the context and not until they actually executed on the genocide to the university have the right to intervene.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而她们三个人基本上给出了相同的答案。你知道，（她们说）这取决于语境（depends on the context），而且直到他们真的开始实施对大学的种族灭绝行动时，校方才有权干预。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the thing that perhaps bothered me the most was the incredible hypocrisy, Harvard was, you know, each of these universities are ranked by this entity called FIRE, which is a nonprofit that focuses on free speech on campus. And Harvard, it's been in the bottom quartile for the last five years and dropped to last before October 7th, out of like 250.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而最让我感到气愤的，可能是这种令人难以置信的虚伪。哈佛，你知道的，这些大学中的每一所都由一个名为FIRE的实体进行排名，这是一家专注于校园言论自由的非营利组织。而哈佛在过去五年里一直处于排名的倒数四分之一，并在10月7日之前跌到了大概250所高校中的倒数第一。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: I should mention briefly that I've interviewed on this podcast, the founder of FIRE and the current Head of FIRE. We discussed this at length, including running for the board of Harvard and the whole procedure of all that...
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 我应该简短地提一下，我曾在这个播客中采访过FIRE的创始人和现任负责人。我们详细讨论了这个问题，包括竞选哈佛董事会以及所有的相关程序……
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Harvard has become a place where free speech is not tolerated on campus, or at least free speech that's not part of the accepted dialogue. Or, you know, this whole notion of speech codes and microaggressions really emerged on the elite, the Harvard, Yale campuses of the world and the president of Harvard's, then president of Harvard's explanation for why you could call for the genocide of the Jewish people on campus was Harvard's commitment to free expression.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 哈佛已经变成了一个不能容忍言论自由的校园，或者至少是不能容忍不属于被普遍接受的对话范畴的言论。或者说，你知道，这整套关于“言论规范”（speech codes）和“微表情冒犯”（microaggressions）的概念，其实正是从哈佛、耶鲁这些全球精英校园里冒出来的。然而，这位时任哈佛校长对于“为什么可以在校园里呼吁对犹太人进行种族灭绝”的解释，竟然是“哈佛对自由表达的承诺”。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And you know, one of the more hypocritical statements of all time, and you really can't have it both ways either. Harvard has to be a place where it's a free speech. She basically said, we're a free speech absolutist place, which is why we have to allow this. And Harvard could not be further from that.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，这是有史以来最虚伪的声明之一，你真的不可能鱼和熊掌兼得。哈佛必须是一个拥有言论自由的地方。她基本上在说，我们是一个言论自由绝对主义的地方，这就是为什么我们必须允许这种言论。然而，哈佛距离那个标准简直差了十万八千里。,
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I was in the barber chair, if you will, getting haircut. And I had a guy on my team send me the three minute section. I said, cut that line of questioning. And I put out a little tweet on that and I call it my greatest hits of posts. It's got something 110 million views. And everyone looked at this and said, what is wrong with university campuses and their leadership and their governance by the way.,
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当时我正坐在理发椅上，如果你能想象的话，正在理发。我团队里的一个人把那三分钟的视频片段发给了我。我说，把那段关于质询的问答剪出来。然后我在Twitter上发了一条简短的推文，我称之为我的推文精选最高收视率。它获得了大概1.1亿的浏览量。然后所有人都看着这视频说，大学校园到底怎么了？顺便问一句，他们的领导层和治理结构到底出了什么问题？,
📝 本节摘要：
本章中，阿克曼分享了他对美国政治的看法，并对未来表达了乐观的展望。他回顾了自己对特朗普的复杂评价：一方面肯定其在经济、就业和唤醒北约方面的务实政策，另一方面严厉批评其破坏社会文明、在国会山骚乱事件中失职等负面影响。同时，他强烈呼吁拜登因认知衰退而退选，认为这已成为国家的尴尬，并转而支持跨党派的温和派候选人迪恩·菲利普斯（Dean Phillips）。在展望未来时，阿克曼坚信人工智能将极大推动生产力与科学发现；他预测中东冲突有望在海湾国家主导下走向和平重建；并满怀骄傲地介绍了妻子内里·奥克斯曼正在创立的环保设计公司。最终，他呼吁社会回归任人唯贤（meritocracy）的常态，对未来保持绝对的希望与无畏。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: You mentioned Trump, I have to talk to you about politics. Amongst all the other battles, you've also been a part of that one.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你提到了特朗普，我必须和你谈谈政治。在所有其他战役中，你也参与了那一场。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Maybe you can correct me on this, but you've been a big supporter of various democratic candidates over the years, but you did say a lot of nice things about Donald Trump in 2016, I believe.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 也许你可以在这点上纠正我，但这些年来你一直是对各种民主党候选人的大力支持者，不过我相信在2016年，你确实说了不少关于唐纳德·特朗普的好话。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So I was interviewed by Andrew Sorkin a week after Trump won the election. And I made my case for why I thought he could be a good president.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的，在特朗普赢得大选一周后，我接受了安德鲁·索尔金（Andrew Sorkin）的采访。我阐述了为什么我认为他能成为一个好总统的理由。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So what was the case back then? To which degree did that turn out to be true and to which degree did it not? To which degree was he a good president, to which degree was he not a good president?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么当时的理由是什么？在多大程度上那变成了现实，又在多大程度上没有？他在多大程度上是一个好总统，又在多大程度上不是一个好总统？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think what I said at the time was the United States is actually a huge business. And it reminds me a bit of the type of activist investments we've taken on over time, where this really, really great business has kinda lost its way.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我想我当时说的是，美国实际上是一家巨大的企业。这让我有点想起我们过去做过的那种激进投资（activist investments）——在这个案例里，这是一家非常非常伟大的企业，但它有点迷失了方向。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And with the right leadership, we can fix it. And if you think about the business of the United States today you've got $32 trillion worth of debt. So it's over leveraged or it's highly leveraged.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 如果有正确的领导，我们就能修复它。如果你想想今天美国这门生意，你背负着32万亿美元的债务。所以它是过度杠杆化（over leveraged）或者说高度杠杆化的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the leverage is only increasing. We're losing money i.e revenues aren't covering expenses. The cost of our debt is going up as interest rates have gone up and the debt has to be rolled over. We have enormous administrative bloat in the country.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且杠杆还在不断增加。我们在亏钱，也就是说收入无法覆盖支出。随着利率上升，我们债务的成本也在上升，而且债务必须滚动借新还旧（rolled over）。我们国家存在着巨大的行政机构臃肿问题。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The regulatory regime is incredibly complicated and burdensome and impeding growth. Our relations with our competitor nations and our friendly nations are far from ideal. And those conditions were present in 2020 as well. They're just, I would say worse now.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 监管体制极其复杂繁重，阻碍了经济增长。我们与竞争对手国家以及友好国家的关系也远非理想。而这些情况在2020年也同样存在。我想说，现在只是变得更糟了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I said, look, it's a great thing that we have a businessman as president. And in my lifetime was really the first businessman as opposed to, I mean, maybe Bush to some degree was a business person, but I thought, okay, I always wanted the CEO to be CEO of America and now we have Trump.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我当时说，看，我们能有一位商人当总统是一件极好的事。在我的有生之年里，他真的是第一位商人——我的意思是，也许布什在某种程度上是个商人，但我当时觉得，好吧，我一直希望有一位CEO来做“美国CEO”，而现在我们有了特朗普。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I said, look, he's got some personal qualities that seem less ideal, but he's gonna be president of the United States. He's gonna rise to the occasion. This is gonna be his legacy and he knows how to make deals and he's gonna recruit some great people into his administration. I hoped.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我说，听着，他确实有一些看起来不那么理想的个人品质，但他将成为美国总统。他会顺应时势挺身而出的。这将成为他的政治遗产，他知道如何达成交易（make deals），他会招募一些优秀的人才加入他的政府。我当时是这么希望的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And growth can solve a lot of our problems. So if we can get rid of a bunch of regulations that are holding back the country, we can have a President Obama was a, I would say not a pro business president.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 经济增长可以解决我们的很多问题。所以如果我们能废除一堆阻碍国家发展的规章制度，我们可以让……我想说奥巴马总统不是一位亲商（pro business）的总统。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He did not love the business community. He did not love successful people. And having a president who just changed the tone on being a pro-business president, I thought would be good for the country. And that's basically what I said.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他不热爱商界。他不热爱成功人士。所以能有一位改变基调、成为亲商总统的人，我认为这对国家是有好处的。基本上我当时就是这么说的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I would say Trump did a lot of good things and a lot of people you can get criticized for acknowledging that. But you know, I think the country's economy accelerated dramatically.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而且我想说特朗普确实做了很多好事，虽然承认这一点会让你招致很多人的批评。但是你知道，我认为国家经济确实出现了大幅加速。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that, by the way, you know, the capitalist system helps the people at the bottom best when the system does well and when the economy does well. You know, the black unemployment rate was lowest in history when Trump was president, and that's true for other minority groups.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 顺便说一句，你知道的，当资本主义体系运行良好、经济运行良好时，它对底层人民的帮助是最大的。你知道，特朗普执政时，黑人失业率降到了历史最低水平，对其他少数族裔也是如此。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So he was good for the economy and he recognized some of the challenges and issues and threats of China early. He kind of woke up NATO. Now again, the way he did all this stuff you can object to, but you know, NATO actually started spending more money on defense in the early part of Trump's presidency because of his threats, which turned out to be a good thing in light of the ultimately the Russia, Ukraine war.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他对经济有好处，而且他很早就认识到了中国的一些挑战、问题和威胁。他某种程度上唤醒了北约（NATO）。现在再说一遍，他做这些事情的方式你可能会反对，但你知道，正是因为他的威胁，北约实际上在特朗普总统任期初期开始增加国防开支，鉴于最终爆发了俄乌战争，这被证明是一件好事。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And I think if you analyze Trump objectively based on policies, he did a lot of good for the country. I think what's bad is he did some harm as well. I do think civility disappeared in America with Trump as president. A lot of that's his personal style.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为如果你基于政策客观地分析特朗普，他确实为国家做了很多好事。我认为糟糕的是，他也造成了一些伤害。我确实认为，在特朗普担任总统期间，“文明/体面”（civility）在美国消失了。这很大程度上源于他的个人风格。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I do think, you know, he was attacked very aggressively by the left, by the media that made him paranoid. It probably interfered with his ability to be successful. He had the Russian collusion investigation overhang.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我确实认为，你知道的，他受到了左翼、媒体非常猛烈的攻击，这让他变得偏执（paranoid）。这可能干扰了他取得成功的能力。他身上一直笼罩着“通俄门”调查的阴影。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know, just you look at how he managed his team, right? Very few people made it through the Trump administration without getting fired or quitting. And he would say they're the greatest person in the world when he hired them and they're total disaster when he fired them. It's not an inspiring way to be a leader and to attract really talented people.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你知道，你看看他是如何管理他的团队的，对吧？很少有人能在特朗普政府中撑到最后而不被解雇或辞职。当他雇佣他们时，他会说他们是世界上最伟大的人；而当他解雇他们时，他又说他们是彻头彻尾的灾难。这不是一种鼓舞人心的领导方式，也无法吸引真正有才华的人。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think the events surrounding the election, I think January 6th, he could have done a lot more to stop a riot. I don't consider it an insurrection, but a riot that takes place in our capitol. And where police officers are killed or die, commit suicide 'cause for failure to, as they sought to do their job. He stepped in way too late to stop that.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为围绕大选发生的事件，我认为在1月6日，他本可以做更多事情来阻止暴乱。我不认为这是一场叛乱（insurrection），而是在我们国会大厦发生的一场暴乱（riot）。在那里有警察被杀或死亡，或因为未能尽职而自杀。他介入阻止这一切的时间实在太晚了。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So he's been a very imperfect president and also I think contributed to the extreme amount of divisiveness in our country. So I was ultimately disappointed by the note of optimism. And again, I always support the president. I trust the people ultimately to select our next leader.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以他是一个非常不完美的总统，而且我认为他助长了我们国家极端的撕裂感。所以我最初的乐观最终变成了失望。但再次强调，我始终支持总统。我最终相信人民会选出我们的下一任领导人。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: You've been a supporter of Dean Phillips for the 2024 US presidential race?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 在2024年美国总统竞选中，你一直是迪恩·菲利普斯（Dean Phillips）的支持者？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yes.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: What do you like about Dean?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 你喜欢迪恩哪一点？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think he's a honest, smart, motivated, capable, proven guy as a business leader. And I think in six, almost in his three terms in Congress, he ran, when Trump was elected, he said his kids cried, his daughters cried, inspired him to run for office.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为作为一个商业领袖，他是一个诚实、聪明、有动力、有能力且被证明过的人。我认为在他在国会的三年任期里……当特朗普当选时，他说他的孩子们哭了，他的女儿们哭了，这激发了他竞选公职。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Centrist, you know, considered I think the second most bipartisan member of the Congress. I'd love to have a bipartisan president. That's the only way to get kind of go forward but we'd enormously benefit if we had a president that chose policies on the basis of what's best for the country as opposed to what his party wanted.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 中间派（Centrist），你知道，我认为他被认为是国会中第二大最具跨党派合作（bipartisan）精神的议员。我很乐意拥有一位跨党派的总统。那是向前迈进的唯一方式，如果我们有一位能够基于什么对国家最有利，而不是他的政党想要什么来选择政策的总统，我们将受益匪浅。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And by the way, the other thing to point out here is, and I have been pointing this out as have others, Biden is I think is done, I mean, it's embarrassing. It's embarrassing for the country having him as a presidential candidate, let alone the president of the country. It's crazy. And it's just gonna get worse and worse.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 顺便说一句，这里还要指出的是，我和其他人一直都在指出：我认为拜登已经完了（is done），我的意思是，这令人尴尬。让他作为总统候选人对国家来说是一种尴尬，更不用说作为国家总统了。这太疯狂了。而且情况只会越来越糟。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And he should hit the worst of his legacy is his ego that prevents him from stepping aside and that's it, it's his ego. And it is so wrong and so bad and so embarrassing.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他政治遗产中最糟糕的一笔，就是阻止他退位让贤的自负（ego），就是这样，完全是因为他的自负。这是极其错误、糟糕且令人尴尬的。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Being a CEO is like a full contact sport. Being president of the United States is like some combination of wrestling, marathon, running, you know, being a triathlete. I mean, you gotta be at the serious physical shape and at the top of your game to represent this country. And he is a far cry from that.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当CEO就像是一项全接触（full contact）的激烈运动。当美国总统就像是摔跤、跑马拉松、铁人三项的某种结合。我的意思是，你必须处于极佳的身体状态，保持巅峰竞技水平，才能代表这个国家。而他差得远了。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Outside of politics let me look to the future first, in terms of the financial world, what are you looking forward to in the next couple of years?
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 抛开政治，首先让我展望一下未来，在金融领域，你对未来几年有什么期待？
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I get optimistic about the world when I talk to my friends who are either venture capitalists or my hobby of backing these young entrepreneurs. I talk to a founder of a startup, if you wanna get optimistic about the world. So I think technology is gonna save us.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当我和我的风险投资家朋友交谈，或者投入我的爱好——支持那些年轻的创业者时，我对世界感到乐观。如果你想对世界充满乐观，就去和一家初创公司的创始人交谈吧。所以我认为技术将会拯救我们。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think AI, of course, has its frightening terminator like scenarios. But I'm gonna take the opposite view that this is gonna be a huge enabler of productivity, scientific discovery, drug discovery, and it's gonna make us healthier, happier and better.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为人工智能当然有它令人恐惧的类似《终结者》的情境。但我将采取相反的观点，我认为它将成为生产力、科学发现、药物研发的巨大推动力，它会让我们变得更健康、更快乐、更好。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I'm excited about seeing what Neri's gonna produce. You know, she's building an incredible company. They're trying to solve a lot of problems with respect to products and buildings and their impact on the environment.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我很兴奋想看到内里（Neri）将会创造出什么。你知道，她正在建立一家不可思议的公司。他们试图解决关于产品、建筑及其对环境影响的许多问题。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Her vision is how do we design products that by virtue of the product's existence, the world is a better place. You know, today you make, her world is a world where the existence of the new car actually is better for the environment than if the new car hadn't existed. And think about that in every product scale, that's what she's working on.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 她的愿景是：我们如何设计产品，使得凭借该产品的存在，世界能变得更加美好。你知道，今天你制造汽车……而她的世界是这样一个世界：一辆新车的存在，实际上比这辆新车不存在时对环境更好。想象一下将这一点应用到所有产品规模上，这正是她正在努力实现的目标。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: I think this disaster in the Middle East. My prediction is the next few months, this war will largely be over in terms of getting rid of Hamas. I think I can envision a world in which Saudi Arabia, some of the other Gulf states come together, take over the governance and reconstruction of Gaza security guarantees are put in place.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我认为中东的这场灾难。我的预测是，在接下来的几个月里，这场战争就消灭哈马斯而言将基本结束。我想我能预见这样一个世界：沙特阿拉伯和其他一些海湾国家走到一起，接管加沙的治理和重建工作，安全保障得以落实。
[原文] [Bill Ackman]: That this October 7th experience on the Harvard, Penn, MIT, Columbia, unfortunately other campuses is a wake up call for universities generally. You know people see the problems with DEI, but understand the importance of diversity and inclusion, but not as a political movement, but as a way that we return to a meritocratic world where someone's background is relevant in understanding their contribution.
[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 10月7日后在哈佛、宾大、麻省理工、哥伦比亚大学以及不幸地在其他校园里的经历，对所有大学来说都是一记警钟。你知道，人们看到了DEI的问题，但也理解了多样性和包容性的重要性，但不是作为一种政治运动，而是作为我们回归任人唯贤（meritocratic）世界的一种方式，在这个世界里，一个人的背景仅在于帮助我们理解他们的贡献。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Well, I share your hope and you are a fascinating mind, a brilliant mind, persistent as you like to say. And fearless, the fearless part is truly inspiring. And this was an incredible conversation. Thank you.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 嗯，我与你共享这份希望，你有着一个迷人、聪慧的大脑，就像你喜欢说的，锲而不舍。而且无所畏惧，这种无所畏惧的品质真的非常鼓舞人心。这是一场令人难以置信的对话。谢谢你。
[原文] [Lex Fridman]: And now let me leave you some words from Jonathan Swift. A wise person should have money in their head but not in their heart. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 最后让我留给你们一句乔纳森·斯威夫特（Jonathan Swift）的名言。一个聪明的人应该把钱放在脑子里，而不是放在心里。感谢您的收听，我们下期再见。