📝 本节摘要：
本节作为访谈的开篇，主持人回顾了嘉宾（Ray Dalio）关于帝国兴衰周期更迭的理论，并请其详细阐述国家发展周期的演变及美国当前所处的位置。Dalio指出，所有国家都被各种“秩序（Orders）”驱动，其中最基础的就是“货币秩序”。他详述了货币系统如何通过信贷创造繁荣，以及随着债务累积，偿债压力如何不断挤压实体消费。当地缘政治危机与美元等世界储备货币的供需失衡交织时，货币系统的崩溃风险将急剧增加。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Ray Dalio, thank you very much. We spoke last year in Exactly this place and and you outlined in part kind of the cycle that you see in civilizations uh vying for supremacy of the world.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio），非常感谢您。去年我们在完全相同的地方交谈过，您部分概述了您所看到的文明在争夺世界霸权时所经历的那种周期。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Um and not everyone I think bought kind of bought into your views on this and you were derided as um you know a Jeremiah scaring people and everything.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 嗯，我想并不是每个人都接受了您在这个问题上的观点，您被嘲笑为，嗯，您懂的，一个恐吓人们的“耶利米”（注：悲观预言者）等等。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: A year later, you have a new summary of ideas that you've been formulating for a long time out this week and about 18 people have sent it to me and so I think we've reached a moment where people are ready to hear what you're saying.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 一年过去了，本周您发布了一份关于您构思已久的新思想总结，大约有18个人把它发给了我，所以我认为我们已经到了一个人人都准备好倾听您发声的时刻了。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So, if you wouldn't mind outlining in whatever detail you like the cycle that you see that countries go through and where our country, the US is in that cycle.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以，如果您不介意的话，请以您喜欢的任何细致程度，概述一下您所看到的国家所经历的周期，以及我们的国家——美国，目前处于那个周期的什么位置。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Gladly. Um, yeah. So there's um there's a cycle, there are orders, there are systems, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 乐意之至。嗯，是的。所以，存在着，嗯，存在着一种周期，存在着各类秩序（orders），存在着不同的系统（systems），对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So there's a monetary order. Um how does the economy work? You put in money creates credit.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 首先有一个货币秩序（monetary order）。嗯，经济是如何运作的？您投入货币，就创造了信贷（credit）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: People with credit take do things with that. They borrow if they can uh earn enough money to pay back.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 拥有信贷的人利用它来做事情。如果他们能，呃，赚到足够的钱来偿还，他们就会去借贷。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Uh the system works well. They create productivity. They create opportunities. The capital markets and so on. That's the monetary system.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 呃，系统运转良好。他们创造生产力。他们创造机会。各种资本市场等等。这就是货币系统。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And the way that works um in the cycle is that when there's no debt um such as in 1945 we start a new monetary order there's no debt there's a system and it builds up over a period of time and it's a mechanics that when incomes when debt service payments rise relative to incomes it squeezes out other spending the way it would do for you as an individual the way it would do for uh companies except governments can print money but that squeezes out spending and that becomes a problem and then um you also have a supply demand problem.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而这种机制在周期中运作的方式是，嗯，当没有债务时，嗯，比如在1945年我们启动了一个新的货币秩序，没有债务，有一个系统，然后它在一段时间内累积起来，这是一种力学机制，当收入……当偿债支付相对于收入上升时，它会挤出其他消费，就像对您个人而言会发生的那样，就像对，呃，公司会发生的那样，除了政府可以印钞，但这会挤出消费并成了一个问题，然后，嗯，您还会面临一个供需问题。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So when you have a new monetary system which the United States um had the new monetary system and the dollar was the world's reserve currency then uh you can sell a lot more uh of the debt.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，当您拥有一个新的货币系统时——美国，嗯，当时拥有新的货币系统，美元是世界储备货币（reserve currency）——那么，呃，您就能卖出更多，呃，更多的债务。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So there's a supply and a demand, right? And so when that builds up and everybody's one man's debts are another man's assets and they build up holding a lot of uh dollar denominated debt and then they sell a lot more debt then there's a mechanics of that supply demand and then when you have politics and world politics geopolitics enter into it that monetary system is more at risk for those reasons.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此存在供给和需求，对吧？所以当其累积起来，所有人的……一个人的债务就是另一个人的资产，他们累积持有大量，呃，以美元计价的债务，然后他们再卖出更多债务时，就会出现这种供需机制，接着，当政治和世界政治、地缘政治（geopolitics）介入其中时，由于这些原因，那个货币系统面临的风险就会更大。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We'll get into that. But the first force of these five forces is the mechanics of this uh process which is the monetary system.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们稍后会深入探讨这点。但这五大力量中的第一种力量，就是这个，呃，过程的运作机制，即货币系统。
如果您对第1章的处理格式和内容满意，请告诉我，我将继续为您输出第2章：内部政治分化、地缘政治秩序崩溃与其他驱动力量的内容！
非常乐意！
📝 本节摘要：
本节中，Ray Dalio 详细阐述了驱动国家盛衰周期的其余四大力量：国内政治秩序、地缘政治秩序、自然因素与新技术的发明。他指出，随着贫富差距和价值观差异的扩大，社会极易走向两极分化与民粹主义，甚至催生独裁；而在国际层面，缺乏强制执行力的多边机制最终注定会被“权力至上”的现实法则打破。Dalio 将这些历史演变规律比作疾病周期的六个阶段（症状），并表示作为有着60年经验的宏观投资者，他希望客观冷静地向大众揭示当前“世界机器”的运转真相。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The second is there's a domestic political order.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第二个力量是国内政治秩序（domestic political order）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There's all countries have an order, a system and all these orders change and they evolve and of course that is connected to the uh economic system and so when you get large wealth and values differences and there's a sense that the system isn't working for them and there's greater polarity.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所有国家都有某种秩序、某种系统，所有这些秩序都会改变并演进，当然，这与，呃，经济系统紧密相连，因此，当出现巨大的财富和价值观差异，且人们感到这个系统不再为他们服务时，就会产生更大的两极分化。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There's the emergence of populism like in the 30s, you know, the left and the right and there's um that populism gets to the point that there are irreconcilable difference.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 接着就像在30年代那样出现了民粹主义（populism），您知道，左翼和右翼，而且，嗯，这种民粹主义发展到了存在不可调和的分歧的地步。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And in other words, the lack of willingness to compromise, the lack of willingness to accept loss, losing one's vote and and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，就是缺乏妥协的意愿，缺乏接受失败、接受选举失利等等的意愿。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But a fight and win for me at all costs.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而是不惜一切代价要为自己争取胜利。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Like in the 30s, four democracies chose to be autocracies because the polarity uh was so great and the uh willingness to go along with that democracy system um ceased to exist.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 就像在30年代，四个民主国家选择成为独裁国家，因为两极分化，呃，太严重了，而且，呃，顺应那种民主系统的意愿，嗯，已经不复存在了。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So that dynamic has happened throughout history.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这种动态变化在历史上不断发生。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um and then um the the third is the geopolitical order.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，然后，嗯，第三个力量是地缘政治秩序（geopolitical order）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: How countries work relative to each other. What's the system?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 各国之间如何相对运作。系统是怎样的？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And after World War II, we created a system, a multilateral system in which it was um in some ways naive, but it was very different than existed before in that by being multilateral, having a United Nations, a World Trade Organization, a World Health Organization, a World Court, and all of those, the idea of being representative, and they would make decisions in a certain rule-based system um was u the path.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 二战后，我们建立了一个系统，一个多边（multilateral）系统，它在某些方面，嗯，有些天真，但它与以前存在的系统截然不同，在于它是多边的，拥有联合国、世界贸易组织、世界卫生组织、世界法院等等所有这些机构，其核心理念是具有代表性，并且它们会在某个基于规则的系统中做出决策，嗯，这就是当时的路径。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And uh of course the problem of that is that any system has to have its uh enforcement and if the system as a whole a multilateral system is not consistent with the interests of those who are the most powerful the well you know power rules and so you have the dynamic of the breaking down of that order.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后，呃，当然，其问题在于任何系统都必须有其，呃，执行力，如果这个系统作为一个整体，一个多边系统，与那些最强大国家的利益不一致，那么，好吧，您懂的，权力才是主宰（power rules），所以你就会看到那种秩序崩溃的动态演变。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Right? So we're breaking down the monetary order in in a very classic way.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 对吧？所以我们正在以一种非常经典的方式打破货币秩序。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We're breaking down the political order in a very classical way.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们正在以一种非常经典的方式打破政治秩序。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We're breaking down the geopolitical order.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们正在打破地缘政治秩序。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So those orders, we have to recognize throughout time all of those orders have changed.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这些秩序，我们必须认识到，随着时间的推移，所有这些秩序都已经改变了。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There's never been a time that they haven't changed and haven't broken down.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 从来没有哪个时期它们没有发生改变、没有走向崩溃。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And there are issues and they're getting back to how they were in some ways in the past.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而且现在出现了各种问题，它们在某些方面正回归到过去的样子。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Number four is acts of nature.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第四个力量是自然因素（acts of nature）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Drought, floods, and pandemics have killed more people than wars.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 干旱、洪水和流行病杀死的人比战争还要多。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So you can't ignore it as a big influence.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以你不能忽视它作为一个巨大的影响力。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And number five is the inventions of new technologies particularly um you know fabulous new technologies u come about and they're important not only for prosperity but they're important in wars you know whoever wins the tech war wins also the economic and the geopolitical war and so there's that dynamic and there that dynamic is when there's rising powers challenging an existing powers there's no court to go to there's no way of resolving that there tests of these powers and we're in a power type of dynamic.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第五个力量是新技术的发明，特别是，嗯，您知道，出现了惊人的新技术，它们不仅对繁荣很重要，而且对战争也很重要，您懂的，谁赢得了科技战，谁也就赢得了经济战和地缘政治战，所以存在这种动态变化，而这种动态就是，当有崛起的大国挑战现有大国时，没有法庭可以去说理，没有办法解决这个问题，那里存在着对这些力量的考验，而我们正处于一种权力较量的动态之中。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Now when you understand that that dynamic works through time and you get down to its individual s symptoms and in other words there's in in my book u um principles for dealing with the changing world order which I wrote about five years ago.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 现在，当你理解这种动态贯穿于时间长河中，并且你深入研究其个别的症状，换句话说，在，在我的书，呃，嗯，我大约五年前写的《应对不断变化的世界秩序的原则》中。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I took um and I broke that cycle into five parts of the six parts of the cycle and the like a disease you can see the symptoms in those parts and you could see it progress and you could see the choices that exist at those stages.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我拿来，嗯，我把那个周期分成了周期的五个部分、六个部分，就像对待疾病一样，你可以在这些部分中看到症状，你可以看到它的发展进程，你也可以看到在那些阶段存在的选择。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So when you're in a different stage, the leadership has a difference uh stage.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以当你处于一个不同的阶段时，领导层面临的也是一个不同的，呃，阶段。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And all I wanted to do, whether it's in that book or in our conversation here today, is to try to um uh let people um see that.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而我所想做的，无论是在那本书里，还是在我们今天的谈话中，就是试图，嗯，呃，让人们，嗯，看到这一点。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And um and I'm I'm just a practical uh investor, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而且，嗯，而且我，我只是一个务实的，呃，投资者，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I've been a for 60 years I've been a macro investor.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 60年来，我一直是一个宏观投资者。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So I have to bet on what the future is going to be like.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我必须押注未来会是什么样子。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I place financial bets on that.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我在这上面进行金融押注。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And now I'm at a stage in life that I want to pass that along.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而现在，我正处于人生的这样一个阶段：我想把这些经验传承下去。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So um I hope that we could talk about or look at that in a dispassionate way to say how does the machine work to produce that dynamic.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，嗯，我希望我们能以一种冷静客观的方式来谈论或看待它，去探讨这台机器是如何运转并产生这种动态变化的。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: That's exactly right. And you're not casting judgments here. You're just acknowledging what has happened and and what therefore is likely to happen.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 完全正确。而且您并没有在这里做出评判。您只是在承认已经发生的事情，以及因此可能发生的事情。
如果您准备好了，请告诉我，我将继续为您输出第3章：历史重演：从民主走向极权与社会的彻底极化！
📝 本节摘要：
本节中，主持人Tucker追问国内政治分化的历史规律，Dalio以古希腊柏拉图的《理想国》及中外历史更替为例，剖析了民主制度为何会因贫富差距和无休止的党争而陷入死胡同。Dalio指出，当人们对最高法院等系统公平性完全丧失信心，社会将沦为部落主义的战场。人们互相贴标签、彻底失去共情，最终平民往往只剩下三种残酷选择：选边站队拼死一搏、低头忍气吞声，或者彻底逃离。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Can I just go back? I don't want to let this pass. In the second factor that you described in this, the political factor, you pointed back to the very fraught decade of the 1930s.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 我能回到刚才的话题吗？我不想错过这一点。在您描述的第二个因素，即政治因素中，您回顾了充满危机的20世纪30年代。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: And you said you had four democracies become or revert to autocracies because of the partisanship that became unworkable.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您说当时有四个民主国家变成了或倒退回了独裁国家，因为党派之争变得无法运转。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: They couldn't reconcile and so they became autocratic. Is that a consistent principle? Do you think?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 他们无法和解，所以变成了独裁。您认为这是一个始终如一的规律吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Yeah, that's you can look at it through Chinese dynasties.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 是的，这……您可以透过中国历代王朝的兴衰来观察这一点。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You could look at it through Rome like who is in control right that they you know Caesar and the Senate and being st in the Senate.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您也可以透过罗马帝国来观察，比如谁在掌权，对吧，他们，您知道的，凯撒和元老院，以及在元老院里的……（注：此处st为口语吞音，指被刺杀）
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: um uh Plato wrote about this. I think it was like um 350 BC. He wrote about the cycle in the republic.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，呃，柏拉图写过这个。我想大约是在，嗯，公元前350年。他在《理想国》（the republic）中写到了这种周期。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words, democracies and the challenge of democracies where you vote and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，就是民主制度以及民主制度面临的挑战，在那里你们投票等等。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But then there's the the wealth gaps and the rich gaps and then who has the money and then the not willing to vote and then there's the power that changes.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但随后出现了财富差距和贫富差距，然后是谁有钱，再然后是不愿意投票，接着就是权力的更迭。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes. So partisanship becomes gridlock becomes irreconcilable just mess and then that evolves by necessity into autocracy. Right?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。所以党派之争变成了僵局，变成了不可调和的烂摊子，然后它必然演变成独裁。对吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: When the when I'm no longer willing to accept that the system the rule of the system because everybody thinks it's rigged.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 当……当我不再愿意接受系统……系统的规则，因为大家都觉得它被操纵了的时候（就会如此）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. Is this the Supreme Court is it rigged because that partisan has more appointees and it won't be fair.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好吧。比如最高法院（Supreme Court），它是不是被操纵了，因为那个党派有更多的任命者，它不会是公平的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so the I remember when the Supreme Court was kind of the Supreme Court and we lived in a time where we said the system is fair.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以……我记得最高法院还算是最高法院的时候，我们生活在一个大家都说系统是公平的时代。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The legal system when you go in and you're convicted, okay, is the legal system fair and so on and then you believe in that system with its imperfections and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 法律系统，当你走进去并且被定罪，好吧，法律系统是公平的吗等等，然后你依然相信那个系统，哪怕它有不完美之处等等。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: When that ceases to be the case, when the when the causes that people are behind are more important to them than the system, the system is in jeopardy, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 当情况不再如此时，当……当人们所支持的事业对他们来说比系统本身更重要时，这个系统就处于危险之中了，对吧？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes, of course, by definition. And you know, all this is relevant to where we are now.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的，当然，从定义上来说就是如此。您知道，这一切都与我们现在的处境息息相关。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So tribalism, whether it's political or ethnic, but when people square off into tribes and they have no common ground and they have no hope of reconciling or compromising, then you're getting a new system.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以部落主义（tribalism），无论是政治上的还是种族上的，当人们划分为不同阵营对抗，没有共同点，也没有和解或妥协的希望时，你就会迎来一个新系统。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And and and you see it it it's so interesting. It's like watching a movie over and over and over again because then you see how it is they make stereotypes of the other, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而且……而且……您会看到它……它非常有趣。就像把一部电影看了一遍又一遍又一遍，因为然后您就会看到他们是如何给对方贴上刻板印象（stereotypes）标签的，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The stereotype of this that personality, the stereotype of that type, whether it's an ethnic or economic or whatever it is.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 对某种性格的刻板印象，对那一类人的刻板印象，无论是种族的、经济的还是其他的什么。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Oh, they're one of those and I'm one of these. And now it becomes the stereotypes that are fighting, right? which are non-human, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 哦，他们是那种人，而我是这种人。现在变成了刻板印象之间在打架，对吧？这些标签是非人化的（non-human），对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So, it's easier to there's there's no empathy. There's of course there's the it's not a human being. It's a stereotype. It's the fight, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，它更容易……这……这里没有共情。这里当然有……它不是一个活生生的人。它是一个刻板印象。这是场战斗，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so, then you have to pick a side. I mean, one of three things.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，然后你必须选边站。我的意思是，有三个选择。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You have to pick a side and fight for it or you keep your head down and hope you don't get shot or flee throughout this throughout history.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你必须选边站队并为之战斗，或者你低下头（忍气吞声）希望自己不要中枪，或者就是逃离……纵观整个……纵观整个历史都是如此。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Yeah. And that's what's be happening.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 是的。而这就是正在发生的事情。
如果您准备好了，请随时告诉我，我将为您继续生成第4章：【插播过渡与避险】无谓的牺牲与乱世中的逃离法则！
📝 本节摘要：
这一章节包含了一段关于宠物医疗服务的口播广告。在广告之后，对话回归正题。主持人总结了普通人在社会极化乃至内战边缘时的三种选择：参战、寻找安全避风港或彻底逃离。Dalio指出，人们往往因为不想受伤而保持沉默，而历史上大规模的移民往往都是为了逃避战乱与苦难，如今许多人前往阿联酋（UAE）便带有这种避险色彩。当暴力与伤亡越过底线，各种社会与金融症状便会集中爆发。最后主持人紧接着提问：当分歧达到不可调和的地步，系统是否还有可能通过权力共享来和平化解？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: hate to brag, but we're pretty confident this show is the most vehemently pro- dog podcast you're ever going to see.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 我不想自夸，但我们非常有信心，这个节目绝对是您所见过的最狂热支持狗狗的播客。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: We can take or leave some people, but dogs are non-negotiable. They are the best.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 我们可以对某些人满不在乎，但对于狗狗，这是没有商量余地的。它们是最好的。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: They really are our best friends. And so, for that reason, we're thrilled to have a new partner called Dutch Pet.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 它们真的是我们最好的朋友。因此，基于这个原因，我们非常高兴能有一位名叫 Dutch Pet 的新合作伙伴。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: It's the fastest growing pet teleaalth service. Dutch.com is on a mission to create what you need, what you actually need, affordable quality veterinary care anytime, no matter where you are.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 这是增长最快的宠物远程医疗服务。Dutch.com 的使命是创造您需要的东西，您真正需要的东西——无论您身在何处，随时提供负担得起的高质量兽医护理。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: They will get your dog or cat what you need immediately. It's offering an exclusive discount. Dutch is for our listeners.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 他们会立即为您的狗或猫提供所需的帮助。它正在提供一项独家折扣。Dutch 是为我们的听众准备的。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: You get 50 bucks off your vet care per year. Visit dutch.com/tucker to learn more.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您每年可以获得50美元的兽医护理折扣。访问 dutch.com/tucker 了解更多。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Use the code Tucker for $50 off. That is an unlimited vet visit. $82 a year. 82 bucks a year. We actually use this.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 使用代码 Tucker 立减 50 美元。那是无限次的兽医问诊。一年 82 美元。一年 82 块钱。我们实际上就在使用这个。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Dutch has vets who can handle any pet under any circumstance in a 10-minute call. It's pretty amazing, actually.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: Dutch 的兽医可以在 10 分钟的通话中处理任何情况下的任何宠物。这实际上非常了不起。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: You never have to leave your house. You don't have to throw the dog in the truck. No wasted time waiting for appointments. No wasted money on clinics or visit fees.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您完全不必离开家。您不必把狗扔进卡车里。没有浪费在等待预约上的时间。没有浪费在诊所或挂号费上的钱。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Unlimited visits and follow-ups for no extra cost. Plus, free shipping on all products for up to five pets.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 无限次的问诊和复诊，无需额外费用。此外，最多可为五只宠物的所有产品提供免费送货服务。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: It sounds amazing like couldn't be real, but it actually is real. Visit dutch.com/tucker to learn more.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 这听起来不可思议，像是假的，但它确实是真的。访问 dutch.com/tucker 了解更多信息。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Use the code Tucker for 50 bucks off your veterinary care per year. Your dogs, your cats, and your wallet will thank you.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 使用代码 Tucker，每年可减免 50 美元的兽医护理费用。您的狗、您的猫还有您的钱包都会感谢您的。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So, you join effectively the Civil War. You try and find a safe place domestically or you just split.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以，你要么实质上加入了内战。你要么试图在国内找一个安全的地方，要么你就直接离开。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Yeah. You, In other words, you're quiet because you don't want to get into the fight. You're going to get injured, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 是的。您……换句话说，您保持沉默，因为您不想卷入战斗。您会受伤的，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: A lot of people are scared now, right? People you'd imagine never would be scared, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 现在有很多人感到害怕，对吧？那些您想象中绝对不会害怕的人，对吧？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes. Right.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。对。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: They they don't want to speak up or something. So you keep your head down.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们……他们不想发声或者怎样。所以您就低下头（忍气吞声）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You either get in the fight and fight. Pick a side and fight for it. Throughout history, this is true. Pick a side and fight for it.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您要么加入战斗去打。选边站队并为之战斗。纵观历史，这都是真实的。选边站队并为之战斗。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Or keep your head down or in some cases flee. You know, people leave. They go from, you know, immigration. Think about how all the immigration largely has taken place.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 或者低下头，在某些情况下就是逃离。您知道的，人们离开。他们从……您知道，移民。想想所有移民在很大程度上是如何发生的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There's some hell taking place in there and then they move to someplace else where there's not.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那里正在发生某种地狱般的灾难，然后他们搬到了另一个没有这种灾难的地方。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Here we are in uh the UAE. Okay. a lot of people are coming to the UAE because they're fleeing in a sense.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 比如我们在，呃，阿联酋（UAE）。好吧。有很多人来到阿联酋，因为他们在某种意义上是在逃离。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um so there's that dynamic and so you can see many many many symptoms right there are things um uh you know when it gets violent and when you get um killing too many people then you start to cross the lines you know like maybe in Iran.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，所以存在这种动态，所以您可以看到很多很多很多的症状，对吧，有些事情，嗯，呃，您知道，当它变得暴力，当出现，嗯，杀戮太多人的情况，那么您就开始越界了，您知道的，可能就像在伊朗那样。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. do we cross the lines and and then where you you you know there are these symptoms that and there's financial you know how do you pay um so and I'm rambling but just
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好吧。我们越界了吗？然后，然后哪里……您，您，您知道有这些症状，还有金融方面的，您知道怎么支付，嗯，所以……我有点扯远了，但是……
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: no you're not rambly I but just back to the political one last question is is it ever resolved does the system ever stay intact when you get to a point where people just don't want to compromise at all or even live in the same place
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 不，您没有扯远。我……但回到政治方面的最后一个问题是，它会被解决吗？当您到了一个人们根本不想妥协、甚至不想生活在同一个地方的地步时，这个系统还能保持完整吗？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: have you seen any example of where people sort of say wait a second let's let's enter into power sharing and pull back before this gets violent or we get a king.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您有没有见过这样的例子，人们大概会说“等一下，让我们……让我们进入权力共享的状态并退让一步”，以免发生暴力，或者在我们迎来一个国王（独裁者）之前？
如果您对第4章的内容处理满意，随时告诉我，我将继续为您输出第5章：“仁慈的独裁者”与美国当前所处的周期第五阶段的内容！
📝 本节摘要：
本节中，针对当社会分歧不可调和时能否和平化解的疑问，Dalio引用了柏拉图“仁慈的独裁者”概念。他指出，历史上这种僵局往往需要一个足够强大且聪明的人来停止无休止的党争，并强制推行必要的金融纪律（如将赤字控制在GDP的3%）。随后，结合教育、军事、货币等多维度的指标，Dalio直言不讳地指出：虽然美国目前仍是最强大的国家，但已处于相对衰退之中，并步入了帝国兴衰周期的“第五阶段”——即站在大动荡与系统崩溃的悬崖边缘，但尚未完全坠落。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um in some places sometimes in dynasties and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，在某些地方，有时候在王朝更替中等等（确实有化解的例子）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um they're but they're not often there.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，它们存在，但并不常见。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: What happens is there's a reversal or a fixing by somebody who can not um who's strong enough to deal with the issues.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 发生的情况是，出现了一种逆转，或者是被某个不能……嗯，足够强大以处理这些问题的人所修复。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: For example, we have a debt issue.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 比如，我们有一个债务问题。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We have all of these other issues and can bring people together.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们有所有这些其他问题，并且能够把人们团结起来。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um but there needs to be almost um Plato would say the benevolent despot.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，但是几乎需要一个……嗯，柏拉图会称之为“仁慈的独裁者（benevolent despot）”的人。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: they and that's in his cycle.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们……而这就在他的周期理论里。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words, there's somebody who can um stop the fighting and be smart and impose the disciplines that are necessary.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，存在这样一个人，他能够，嗯，停止争斗，并且足够聪明，能够施加必要的纪律。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: For example, there's a financial discipline.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 比如，有一种金融纪律（financial discipline）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Do how do we deal with um the debt and the um all the supply demand and and so on?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们该如何处理，嗯，债务和，嗯，所有的供需关系等等？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Do can we raise taxes?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们能增税吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Can we u cut spending?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们能，呃，削减开支吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: What are we going to do to bring about a budget balance or not a budget balance let's say a deficit of 3% of GDP which would sustain the set of circumstances what is that financial discipline what is that way of working together so we do not do each other harm because we are at a point let's say as we come to the next um u midterm elections you know um and there's a u significant probability that the um Republicans would lose the House and um talk of even could be the Senate.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们要怎么做才能实现预算平衡，或者说不是完全的预算平衡，比方说是占GDP 3%的赤字，以此来维持当前的局势？那种金融纪律是什么？那种不让我们互相伤害的合作方式是什么？因为我们正处于这样一个节点：比方说，当我们迎来下一次，嗯，呃，中期选举（midterm elections），您知道的，嗯，而且存在着，呃，很大的可能性，嗯，共和党人会失去众议院（House），嗯，甚至有传言说可能是参议院（Senate）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好吧。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Now, when you go after that and you imagine what the conflict can be like, how will that conflict work?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 现在，当您在那之后去追寻，并想象那场冲突会是什么样子时，那场冲突将如何运作？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Will it be rule of law or will it be a win at all cost?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 它会是法治（rule of law），还是不惜一切代价的胜利（win at all cost）？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: and as that win at all cost and what that means um it is there rules is there playing by the rules you know that dynamic so this thing is repeated it's not easy to get to that point because you have to deal with you know um how do we stop fighting with each other and how do we do the right things to get strong that's and that's a that's a great challenge in history
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 随着那种不惜一切代价的胜利，以及它所意味着的……嗯，还有规则吗？大家还在按规则行事吗？您知道那种动态变化。所以这种事情在不断重复。要达到那个节点并不容易，因为您必须处理，您知道的，嗯，我们如何停止互相争斗，我们如何做正确的事情来变得强大，那是……且那在历史上是一个巨大的挑战。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: so where are we now given the five factors that you outlined where is the United States or even really the west will include Europe in this very familiar cycle of rise and fall.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以考虑到您概述的这五个因素，我们现在处于什么位置？在这个我们非常熟悉的兴衰周期中，美国，甚至真正的西方——我们把欧洲也包括进来——究竟处于什么位置？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um uh in my book I um show 18 measures of health having to do with education, military um um reserve currency, a number of measures that show strength.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，呃，在我的书中，我，嗯，展示了18项与教育、军事、嗯，嗯，储备货币有关的健康指标，以及许多显示实力的指标。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay, what is the level of strength?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的，实力水平如何？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And uh the United States is the strongest power which has been in relative decline and experiencing these conflicts.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 并且，呃，美国依然是最强大的国家，但它一直处于相对衰退之中，并正在经历这些冲突。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um and that's measured if if you go in the book uh how uh principles for dealing with the changing world order you'll see a number of charts.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，而且那是被测量出来的。如果……如果您去看那本书，呃，也就是《应对不断变化的世界秩序的原则》，您会看到许多图表。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So I don't want to just pronounce it that way.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我不想只是这样口头断言。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I just want to say that um like if you were to take education and you take um scores, piece of scores and so on in statistics you will see that there is a r there are rising powers there declining powers there are large wealth and values uh differences and we are in what is what I call stage five which means uh we are sort of at the brink but not over the brink
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我只是想说，嗯，比方说，如果您考量教育，您去看，嗯，分数，各种表现分数等等的统计数据，您就会看到，存在着……存在着正在崛起的大国，也存在着正在衰落的大国，存在着巨大的财富和价值观，呃，差异，而我们正处于我所说的“第五阶段（stage five）”，这意味着，呃，我们有点处于悬崖边缘，但还没有掉下悬崖。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: in other words we're not um there's the capacity um to um uh it's before um a period of great disorder when there can be a monetary breaking down uh of the system
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，我们还没有……嗯，还有能力，嗯，去……呃，它处于一个大动荡时期之前，到那时可能会出现系统的货币崩溃（monetary breaking down），呃。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: you know what is money we should talk at some point what is money and can I can money be an effective storehold of wealth and what happens if it's not and so we are at what I would call stage five in a six stage cycle six
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您知道什么是货币（money），我们在某个时候应该谈谈什么是货币，并且，货币能成为一种有效的财富贮藏手段（storehold of wealth）吗？如果不能，会发生什么？因此，我们正处于我所说的六阶段周期中的第五阶段。六……
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The sixth stage is when there's a breaking down of these orders.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第六阶段是当这些秩序走向崩溃的时候。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We're not there yet, but we are um close to there and headed in that type of direction.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们还没有走到那一步，但是我们，嗯，已经很接近了，并且正朝着那种方向走。
如果您准备好继续阅读下一段危机预演，请随时指示我生成第6章：周期第六阶段：债务爆雷、法币贬值与信用枯竭的内容！
📝 本节摘要：
本节重点探讨了周期“第六阶段”（即系统崩溃期）的具体表现。Dalio指出，在货币层面，崩溃的核心标志是世界储备货币（如美元）的供需彻底失衡：债务超发导致需求不足，进而引发长期利率上升，以及法币相对于黄金等非法定资产的贬值。与此同时，由于忌惮美国利用金融霸权进行制裁没收资产（如历史上对二战前的日本、近期对俄罗斯的行动），其他国家开始加速抛售美债并囤积黄金。面对外资买盘枯竭和国内利率飙升带来的经济放缓，央行最终只能亲自下场印钞购债，从而不可避免地将货币推向进一步贬值的深渊。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: What does a breakdown look like? What does stage six look like?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 崩溃看起来是什么样的？第六阶段是什么样的？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Well um from the monetary point of view um it is that um there the the demand for the reserve currency um is not sufficient to meet the supply.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，嗯，从货币的角度来看，嗯，那就是，嗯，对储备货币的需求，嗯，不足以满足其供应。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So what that means is you uh see a supply demand problem.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这意味着您，呃，会看到一个供需问题。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Uh you produce a lot of supply and the demand's inadequate and all things being equal there will be a rising long rate while the central bank is trying to hold that from down by easing the short rate and and low shortening the maturity of the debt that it sells.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 呃，您制造了大量的供应，而需求却不足，在其他条件不变的情况下，长期利率将会上升，与此同时，央行则试图通过放松短期利率、以及压低并缩短其发行的债务期限来牵制这种上涨趋势。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay, that dynamic and that then the currency um um the these debts and the currency falls relative to the non fiat currencies. In other words, like gold.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好吧，就是那种动态，然后货币，嗯，嗯，这些债务和货币相对于非法定货币（non fiat currencies）就会贬值。换句话说，比如相对于黄金。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words, you you you are seeing a movement by central banks as and countries to um hold gold um as an alternative reserve currency partially because of that supply demand situation and partially because they u worry that um there may be a payments problem and the payments problem like um it happened in Japan Prior to World War II, you had an economic problem and the United States um um sanctioned essentially um didn't pay the the the Japanese uh their debt the money in terms of that like a debtor creditor problem and they didn't make those payments much like Russia you know you u they they basically took control because they have the ability to take control of the treasuries and other things and so there is becomes more of a uh reluctance to hold that money as that and a movement more into um the non-fiat currency which is is gold.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换言之，您、您、您正看到各国央行和国家开始采取行动，嗯，将黄金作为一种替代性的储备货币来持有，部分原因是由于那种供需状况，部分原因是他们，呃，担心，嗯，可能会出现支付问题，这种支付问题就像，嗯，二战前的日本发生过的那样，当时你们面临经济问题，而美国，嗯，嗯，实施了制裁，基本上，嗯，拒绝向日本人，呃，偿付他们的债务——也就是那笔钱，就像一个债务人和债权人的问题，美国没有进行那些支付，这很像俄罗斯的情况，您知道，您，呃，他们（美国）基本上接管了控制权，因为他们有能力接管对国债和其他资产的控制权，因此，这就导致人们更加，呃，不情愿将那种货币作为财富持有，从而更多地转向，嗯，非法定货币，也就是黄金。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: That's so in other words other countries perceive a risk in holding dollars because well for lots of reasons but one of them is like if the United States government at the time doesn't like you they can grab your dollars.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以换句话说，其他国家认为持有美元存在风险，因为……嗯，虽然有很多原因，但其中一个原因就像是，如果当时的美国政府不喜欢你，他们就可以抢走你的美元。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That's right.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 没错。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So it's not worth it.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以这不值得。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Right. And it it's a it's a risk that both the debtor and the creditor have to each other.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 对的。而且它……它……这是一种债务人和债权人对彼此都存在的风险。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So think about a China. And if you were thinking China, how do you feel about holding Treasury bonds?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以想想中国。如果您是在考虑中国，您对持有美国国债有什么感觉？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. So you may not feel secure about holding Treasury bonds both for for two reasons.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好吧。所以您可能对持有美国国债感到不安全，这有两个原因。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Because you could be sanctioned or you also because there's a supply demand problem.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因为您可能会被制裁，或者您也会因为存在供需问题而感到不安。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So you start to see the movement in that direction.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以您开始看到资金向那个方向流动。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then of course it's also uh also in that situation governments want to control their supply demand.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后当然，在那种情况下，呃，政府也希望控制他们的供需。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So they might establish foreign exchange controls. They might do certain things like that.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以他们可能会建立外汇管制（foreign exchange controls）。他们可能会采取某些类似这样的措施。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Uh but they also feel vulnerable. the United States c can feel vulnerable if they can't sell enough of those bonds to others in that if the demand isn't because then interest rates would have to rise because the supply demand too much supply relative to demand to make it more appealing to buyers.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 呃，但他们也感到脆弱。美国可能……可能会感到脆弱，如果他们不能向其他人出售足够数量的此类债券，在需求不足的情况下，因为那样的话利率就不得不上升——因为供需关系中，相对于需求而言供应太多了——只有这样才能对买家更有吸引力。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But and also to cut the demand for credit. In other words, if the price rise then people will borrow less and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但同时也是为了削减对信贷的需求。换句话说，如果价格（利率）上涨，那么人们的借贷就会减少等等。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And that then has the effect of mechanically slowing down the economy that produces that result which so then what happens is then the central bank comes in and it prints money and it buys the debt which depreciates the currency.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而这接着就会产生机械性地放缓经济的效果，产生那样的结果，所以接下来会发生的事情是，央行下场了，它印制钞票并购买这些债务，这就使得货币贬值了。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That's the mechanics that's of the debt part of it that is related to the political and the geopolitical part of it that I'm answering.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这就是……这就是与其政治和地缘政治部分相关联的债务部分的运作机制，这也是我正在回答的。
如果您准备好探讨印钞循环的荒谬性以及国家破产的历史先例，请告诉我，我将继续为您输出第7章：【插播过渡与机制】国家破产的力学规律与政府的最终接管！
📝 本节摘要：
本节中，面对“央行印钞买自家国债如同电动风车般荒谬”的质疑，Dalio指出政府其实已陷入别无选择的境地（不增税削减开支就只能印钞）。他回顾了1971年尼克松废除金本位以及1933年罗斯福新政时的类似操作，指出通过增加信贷来缓解债务危机就像是“用酒解宿醉”，只会让下一轮债务越滚越大。在一段通信服务商的口播广告后，对话切入国家破产的力学规律：随着央行大规模购债并承担亏损，资金不可避免地逃向黄金等硬通货；而在危机末期，中央政府往往会剥夺央行的独立性，直接接管货币控制权。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: May I ask you something? So, if foreign countries don't want to buy your debt and your central bank decides we're going to print more money and buy our own debt with it, which is what what we're doing, wouldn't the people doing that stop and say, "Wait a second. This sounds like an electric windmill. Like, what are we doing here? This sounds crazy."
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 我可以问您一个问题吗？所以，如果外国不想买你的债务，而你的央行决定我们要印更多的钱，用它来买我们自己的债务——这正是我们现在在做的——做这些事的人难道不会停下来想，“等一下。这听起来就像个电动风车（注：指自我循环、徒劳无功）。比如，我们到底在干什么？这听起来太疯狂了。”
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: They're stuck. They're stuck. They're st they're stuck because um they have a deficit and the deficit will be there unless they raise taxes and cut spending or something and that's bad for the economy and it's politically bad.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们被困住了。他们被困住了。他们……他们被困住了，因为，嗯，他们有赤字，而除非他们增税和削减开支之类的，否则赤字就会一直存在，但那对经济不利，在政治上也是不利的。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes. Okay.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。好的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um or or you print the money and you make up the difference.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，或者……或者你就印钱，把差额补上。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so since the breakdown of the monetary system in 1971, that was when there were too many claims on gold and we had a system attached to gold.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，自从1971年货币系统崩溃以来，那是当对黄金的索取权太多时，而我们当时拥有一个与黄金挂钩的系统。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And because they were in August 15th, 1971, I remember well I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange after my after college before I went to graduate school.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因为在1971年8月15日，我记得很清楚，大学毕业后、读研究生之前，我正在纽约证券交易所的交易大厅里做办事员。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Richard Nixon gets on August 15th, Sunday night. He gets on the television and he says, um, we're not going to, uh, allow the conversion of that paper money into gold and we're not going to, you won't get your gold.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 理查德·尼克松在8月15日，周日晚上登场了。他在电视上说，嗯，我们不打算，呃，允许纸币兑换成黄金，我们不打算这么做，你们拿不到你们的黄金了。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And I walked on the floor of the stock exchange the next morning. I thought, this is a big crisis.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 第二天早上，我走在证券交易所的交易大厅里。我想，这是一场大危机。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And, uh, what they did is they essentially printed it. And then we had the stagflation of the 70s.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后，呃，他们所做的基本上就是印钞票。接着我们就迎来了70年代的滞胀（stagflation）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But I was very surprised. And I found out um I didn't never threw anything like that before. I studied history.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但我当时非常惊讶。然后我发现，嗯，我以前从未经历过这样的事情。我研究了历史。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I found out they did the exact same thing in March. Roosevelt did the exact same thing in March of 1933 right after he got inaugurated.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我发现他们在3月份做了完全相同的事情。罗斯福在1933年3月刚上任时，做了完全相同的事情。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Right. Okay.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 对。好的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: For the same reasons. Okay. Because your choice is to have a lot of defaults and a debt problem or to do that. All right. That's how it works. That's how the machine works.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 出于相同的原因。好的。因为你的选择要么是面临大量违约和债务问题，要么就是那样做（印钞）。好吧。这就是它的运作方式。这就是机器运转的方式。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So um and at the end of the day since 1971 when we went off the uh gold standard and we went to a fiat monetary system we have always done that and you know and you know the Fed put and um you know that's that that that's the way it is.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，嗯，归根结底，自1971年我们脱离，呃，金本位制并转向法定货币系统（fiat monetary system）以来，我们一直都是这么做的，而且您知道，您也知道美联储的“看跌期权”（Fed put，注：指美联储兜底市场的预期），嗯，您知道那就是……那就是现实。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So, and it's kind of worked for 55 years, but it's showing signs of
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，它大概奏效了55年，但现在它开始显现出迹象……
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Well, what it does is um it's like uh using what uh was the hair of the dog that bit you.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，它所起的作用，嗯，就像，呃，使用了，呃，那只咬你的狗的毛（注：英文俗语“hair of the dog”，意为以毒攻毒、用导致宿醉的酒来解酒）。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Oh, it's the hangover cure. I'm familiar with that.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 哦，就是解宿醉的办法。我对这个很熟悉。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. Me, too. For sure.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。我也是。绝对的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um it it's um what you do is you give more money in credit and what happens is to get out of it and because then you make it easier to pay the debt you make like in um 2008 or 2020 you give the money okay and you give the credit and you and you fund it and you make that but that makes the debts go up again okay until then you reach the point where the debt is squeezing on the expenditures and you have the supply demand.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，它……它是，嗯，你所做的就是提供更多的货币信贷，而结果是为了摆脱困境，因为这样你让偿还债务变得更容易，你就像在，嗯，2008年或2020年那样，你给钱，好的，你提供信贷，然后你……你为它提供资金，你促成这一切，但这会让债务再次上升，好的，直到你达到这样一个临界点，即债务正在挤压各项支出，且你面临供需失衡。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So that's why you have these big debt cycles.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这就是为什么你会经历这些巨大的债务周期。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: You know, when we started this company, we promised that we would only partner with other companies that share our values. We didn't want to advertise products made by people who hate us or for that matter you.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您知道，当我们创办这家公司时，我们承诺过我们只会与和我们价值观相同的其他公司合作。我们不想为那些讨厌我们——或者就此而言，讨厌你们的人——制造的产品做广告。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So with that in mind, it is a pleasure to announce that we're working with Charity Mobile. It is a pro-life phone company.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以带着这个初衷，我们很高兴地宣布，我们正在与 Charity Mobile 合作。这是一家反堕胎（pro-life）的电话公司。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Charity Mobile holds a view on abortion that almost every single major US company disagrees with. They think it's completely wrong. It is sad. And celebrating it is one of the darkest things this country's ever done.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: Charity Mobile 对堕胎持有一种几乎所有美国大型公司都不赞同的观点。他们认为这是完全错误的。这很可悲。而庆祝堕胎是这个国家做过的最黑暗的事情之一。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: We agree completely. So, when you switch your cell phone service to this American company, they'll donate a percentage of your monthly price plan to a pro-life, pro-f family charity that you choose.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 我们完全同意。所以，当您将您的手机服务切换到这家美国公司时，他们会将您每月套餐费用的一部分捐赠给您选择的、反堕胎、支持家庭的慈善机构。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: There's no better way to prove what their real values are than doing that. No one would do that unless they meant it.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 没有比这么做更好的方式来证明他们真正的价值观是什么了。除非他们是认真的，否则没有人会这么做。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: All their plans are under 50 bucks and you can keep your existing number and your existing phone if it's compatible.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 他们所有的套餐都在50美元以下，如果兼容的话，您可以保留您现有的号码和现有的手机。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Charity Mobile is a pro-life company serving pro-life customers and supporting pro-life causes and has done it for more than 30 years.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: Charity Mobile 是一家反堕胎公司，服务于反堕胎的客户，支持反堕胎事业，并且他们这样做已经超过30年了。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Visit charitymobile.com/tucker. Use promo code Tucker to get a free phone with free activation, free shipping, and a free gift with every new line of service.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 访问 charitymobile.com/tucker。使用促销代码 Tucker 即可获得一部免费手机，免激活费、免运费，并且每开通一条新线路都会附赠一份免费礼物。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So I think every even people who are not really interested in monetary policy or macroeconomics feel like there is a point at which this doesn't work anymore. It just breaks. It is it's happened all in all.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以我认为，即使是那些对货币政策或宏观经济并不真正感兴趣的人，也会觉得总有一个临界点，到那时这一切都将不再奏效。它就是会崩溃。这……总而言之，这已经发生过了。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So what does that look like specifically the debt crisis people keep talking well I I um uh
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 那么这具体看起来是什么样的呢？人们一直在谈论的这场债务危机，嗯，我……我，嗯，呃……
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: because of that my uh last book my most recent book put out about a little less than a year ago um is called how countries go broke. Yes. The big cycle.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 正是因为这个，我，呃，上一本书，我不到一年前出版的最新的一本书，嗯，叫作《国家如何破产》（how countries go broke）。是的。大周期。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And what I wanted to do and is to just show 35 cases of it. That is just the mechanics to show how it works. Okay.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而我当时想做的，仅仅是展示其中的35个案例。也就是通过机制来展示它是如何运作的。好的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But it is that dynamic of the squeezing on the spending and the supply demand and then you start to see it where as I was saying the long rate um goes up while the short rate comes down because the central bank's pushing the short rate down and then they shorten the maturities of the debt and then the central bank buys that and then the central bank now it's owns all these treasuries and then the central bank starts losing money cuz they own the treasury. ries and then they and they're going up.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但就是那种挤压消费和供需失衡的动态变化，然后你开始看到它，就像我所说的，长期利率，嗯，在上升，而短期利率在下降，因为央行在压低短期利率，然后他们缩短债务的期限，接着央行买入这些债务，然后央行现在持有了所有这些国债，紧接着央行开始亏损，因为他们持有这些国债。呃，而且它们（利率）还在上升。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So they have to produce the money and credit to to keep that uh rate down and they lose more and more money and that dynamic then doesn't stop the the change in the capital flows.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以他们必须制造货币和信贷来……来压低那个，呃，利率，于是他们亏损的钱越来越多，而那种动态随后并不能阻止……阻止资本流向的改变。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That's why you and then traditionally in all of these cases you see a move to the hard money, the move to gold.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这就是为什么你……然后传统上在所有这些案例中，你会看到资金转向硬通货（hard money），转向黄金。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay, as we're seeing, you see that dynamic in terms of that move to gold and um and then it starts to run its course.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的，正如我们正在看到的，你在资金转向黄金方面看到了那种动态变化，而且，嗯，然后它就开始顺其自然地发展。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So, it's very much like think about what happened from 71 through the 70s produces more stagflation and then at some point the inflation problem or the devaluation of money problem becomes such that the central bank then tightens money and and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，这非常像……想想从71年贯穿整个70年代发生的事情，它产生了更多的滞胀，然后到了某个节点，通货膨胀问题或货币贬值问题变得如此严重，以至于央行随后会收紧货币等等。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then the vuler years the vulkar years 1979 80 8182 right um so the pendulum swings
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后是沃尔克时期（Volcker years，注：美联储主席保罗·沃尔克以强硬加息抗击通胀的时期）……沃尔克时期，1979、80、81、82年，对吧，嗯，所以钟摆摆动了。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: think about it this way um in order to have a balance a successful economy uh or successful capital market since one man's debts or another man's assets you have to keep interest rates um not so high that they crush the debtor right without having them so low that they um are bad for the creditor. Right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这样想吧，嗯，为了保持平衡，一个成功的经济体，呃，或者成功的资本市场，既然一个人的债务就是另一个人的资产，你就必须保持利率，嗯，不能高到压垮债务人的地步，对吧，但同时也不能低到，嗯，对债权人不利的地步。对吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So you see these cycles when we had uh zero interest rates and negative real interest rates. What you saw was massive creation of credit and and money and borrowing and so on. And then you had that that cycle.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以你看到了这些周期，当我们处于，呃，零利率和负实际利率时期时。你所看到的是大规模的信贷、货币和借款的创造等等。然后你就经历了那个……那个周期。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So uh that's what the cycle looks like if you have losses and then you also have under those circumstances classically um the uh weakening of the central bank's control the you or I should say the strengthening of the central bank the central government's control over the central bank
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，呃，周期就是这个样子，如果你面临亏损，然后在这些情况下，经典地，你还会面临，嗯，呃，央行控制力的减弱……或者我应该说，中央银行……中央政府对央行控制力的加强。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: in other words when these things happen then there is um they can't be at odds okay and so there is greater under control by the central government of this and um
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，当这些事情发生时，那么就会有，嗯，他们不能发生分歧，好的，因此中央政府对此会有更强的控制，而且，嗯……
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: are you writing the news? No, I've just seen this movie before. It's like this exactly what's happening.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您是在写新闻稿吗？不，我只是以前看过这部电影。现在正在发生的就像是这完全一模一样的情景。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I I know but that's what I'm saying because it must happen in in in in that in the nature of that dynamic when you have um imagine the fight between the central bank and the central government in the middle of a crisis and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我……我知道，但这正是我要说的，因为它必然会发生，在……在……在那种动态的本质中发生，当你面临，嗯，想象一下在危机中，央行和中央政府之间的斗争等等。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So there there is this control because there's a monetary thing because there has to be right what happens if if you're the president of the United States or you are the leader in that country and you are in this kind of a monetary crisis it's like anything uh any fight you don't want the internal fight you want to get control and there's a fight for control so we're living in a world today in which there are fights for control right who has the power and the fights for control
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这里……这里就有了这种控制，因为存在货币方面的事情，因为必须得有，对吧，如果你……如果你是美国总统，或者你是那个国家的领导人，而你处于这样一种货币危机中会发生什么？就像任何事情……呃，任何争斗一样，你不希望发生内部争斗，你想获得控制权，于是就出现了一场争夺控制权的斗争，所以我们今天生活在一个充满控制权争夺的世界中，对吧，谁拥有权力，以及对控制权的争夺。
接下来将是极具前瞻性的第8章：储备货币争夺战：人民币的局限与法定货币的终局。准备好继续的话，请随时向我下达指令！
📝 本节摘要：
主持人询问我们何时才能确切知道系统已经崩溃，Dalio回答这种历史转折往往只能在事后回溯时才清晰，如同法国大革命爆发当天，当事人并未察觉自己身处历史转折点。随后讨论转向人民币能否取代美元成为世界储备货币。Dalio深刻解析了货币的两大功能：交易媒介与财富贮藏。他认为，尽管中国作为世界第一大贸易国，人民币在“交易媒介”方面极具潜力并被广泛使用；但受限于外汇管制、对私有财产保护的观念差异等因素，人民币难以承担起“财富贮藏”的核心功能。Dalio最终给出定论：当今所有的法定货币其实都有风险，世界上除了黄金之外，并没有真正理想的替代性储备货币，因为黄金是唯一不属于他人负债的硬资产。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: so again So at what point do we know the system is just broken and this this experiment which began post war 1945 is like reached its end and we need something um
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以再说一次，我们到底在什么时刻才能确切知道系统已经破裂了，而且这场始于1945年战后的实验就像是已经走到了尽头，我们需要一些，嗯……
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: pretty much almost only in retrospect.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 差不多几乎只能在事后回溯时才能知道。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: What what what what happens if you if if you're really close up and you've you say when did they know that there was a breakdown or when did they know that there was uh let's say the French Revolution there's a day that they say storm the best deal uh right and there's that day and they said it they didn't know that
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 会……会……会发生什么呢？如果……如果你真的离得很近，你会说他们是什么时候知道发生了崩溃的，或者他们是什么时候知道爆发了，呃，比方说法国大革命，有那么一天他们说攻占了巴士底狱（注：原文转录“best deal”实为口语 Bastille 的误拼），呃，对吧，就是那一天，他们嘴上这么说着，但他们当时并不知道（那就是革命）。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: no they didn't just like some prison got raided or something they didn't
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 不，他们不知道，感觉就像某个监狱被突袭了或者怎么的，他们并不知道。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Yeah. I know that's right. Okay. So, when it it's not like they announce it or it becomes clearcut, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 是的。我知道这是对的。好的。所以，当它发生时，并不像是他们广播宣布了这件事，或者它变得一目了然，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You slip into those things. There's never that clear moment.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你是悄然滑入这些事件中的。从来没有那么一个清晰的时刻。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: But what happens next? Like we heard Chairman Shei 3 days ago say, "Hey, by the way, China should hold the world's reserve currency."
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 但是接下来会发生什么？就像我们3天前听到习主席（注：原文转录 Shei 实为 Xi）说，“嘿，顺便说一句，中国应该拥有世界储备货币。”
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: And that seems very far away now, I guess. But maybe.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 我猜这现在看起来似乎还很遥远。但也未可知。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Uh, so you're asking me what I think about China's having.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 呃，所以您是在问我怎么看中国拥有（储备货币）这件事。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Well, the only reason I'm putting it I have no idea if that's possible.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 嗯，我提出来的唯一原因是，我完全不知道那是否可能。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I I can respond.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我……我可以回答。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Tell me.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 请告诉我。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. I don't think China is going to have a There are two purposes of a currency.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。我不认为中国会有一个……货币有两个用途。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Medium of exchange and storehold of wealth.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 交易媒介（Medium of exchange）和财富贮藏（storehold of wealth）。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Right.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 对。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. Medium of exchange. It's logical that uh China is going to uh have much more of a medium of exchange type of reserve currency because it is right now the world's largest trading country, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。关于交易媒介。很符合逻辑的是，呃，中国将会，呃，拥有更多作为“交易媒介”类型的储备货币，因为它现在是世界上最大的贸易国，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so people um um central banks want to hold some reserves in the things that they're trading in course and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此人们，嗯，嗯，各国央行希望在他们进行交易的过程中持有一些货币储备，以及诸如此类。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um and so they the Chinese have intentionally um in order to minimize that conflict have not pushed that thing and now they're going to operate in in moving in that way.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，因此他们，中国人，为了尽量减少那种冲突，嗯，有意地没有去推动那件事，而现在他们将开始以那种方式运作推进。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: As far as storehold of wealth though, who's going to trust the Chinese uh with your wealth and and capital controls and so on?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但是就财富贮藏而言，谁会放心地把自己的财富交给中国人，呃，伴随着他们的资本管制等等措施？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I think that all fiat currencies have a problem.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我认为所有法定货币都有一个通病。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. So um uh there they they have the history of of foreign exchange controls.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。所以，嗯，呃，在那里，他们……他们有外汇管制的历史。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: They have a would you trust it's anti-wealth protection.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们有一个……你会信任这种对财富保护的反对态度吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You know this is not um that's not their great track record of having I'm going to protect your wealth.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您知道，这不是……在“我要保护你的财富”这方面，他们并没有很好的过往记录。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You even private property and how it works in China is a new concept relatively and it's something that they're you know wrestling about.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您……甚至私有财产及其在中国的运作方式，相对来说也是一个新概念，并且这是他们，您知道的，正在努力探索解决的问题。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: They don't you can't own land you know you can't own property.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们不……你不能拥有土地，您知道的，你不能拥有地产。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So the storehold of wealth element is going to be very tough for them to sell.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以“财富贮藏”这个要素对他们来说将是很难推销出去的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So the world does not have what you want as a currency as a reserve currency other than gold.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以除了黄金之外，世界上并没有你想要的那种可以作为储备货币的货币。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I mean it's just a default right because it's a debt and and gold is the you know what like they say it's the one asset you can have that's not somebody else's liability meaning you have to get money from somebody else to do
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我的意思是这几乎是默认的选择，对吧，因为法定货币是一种债务，而黄金是，您知道的，就像他们说的那样，它是你唯一可以拥有的、不属于他人负债的资产，这就意味着你必须从别人那里获得钱来做……（注：此处话语被后续提问自然打断）
如果您准备好了，请告诉我，我将继续为您输出精彩的第9章：【插播过渡与投资组合】用黄金抵御传统体系的崩溃的内容！
📝 本节摘要：
本节中，Tucker回顾了去年向Dalio私下讨教购买黄金的经历。Dalio深刻指出，大众往往只习惯通过“美元滤镜”来看待黄金价格的涨跌，却忽视了黄金在历史上作为真正“货币”的普遍性；其实当你透过“黄金滤镜”去看待世界时，你看到的是法定货币正在贬值。在一段安防摄像头的口播广告之后，对话转向了个人投资组合的构建。Dalio建议，在充分认知法定货币风险的前提下，投资者应将黄金视为一种有效的多元化避险工具，并建议根据自身情况在投资组合中配置5%到15%的黄金，以应对可能到来的恶劣时期。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: so I asked you last year off camera I'll never forget it. I've always been a gold buyer, but then I don't know anything. I just it just instinctively seemed like it made sense, but I've always been a little bit embarrassed about it.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以我去年在镜头外问过您，我永远不会忘记。我一直是个黄金买家，但我其实什么都不懂。我只是……只是直觉上觉得它有道理，但我对此一直感到有点难为情。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: And so I asked you, is it crazy to, you know, take some money and buy some gold?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以我问您，您知道的，拿点钱去买些黄金，这疯狂吗？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: And you said it's not crazy at all.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您说这完全不疯狂。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: And I remember feeling vindicated, but also wondering like, why don't more people say that?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 我记得当时我感觉自己被证明是对的，但同时也在想，为什么没有更多的人这么说呢？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: It almost feels like there was a conspiracy in the financial press.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 感觉就像是财经界存在某种阴谋一样。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: all around not only in not only in um related to gold but all of the things I I think people get used to what's credible to them is what they experience and the norm that they have at that time and so much see that's happening you I hear people say I'm shocked by but the only reason they're shocked is because they become used to that right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 到处都是，不仅在……不仅在，嗯，与黄金相关的事情上，在所有事情上，我……我认为人们习惯于相信他们所经历的，以及他们当时所处的常态，所以很多正在发生的事情，你……我听到人们说“我对此感到震惊”，但他们感到震惊的唯一原因是因为他们已经习惯了那种常态，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you if you were traveling through time and you went and before 1971 and so on and you saw history and you saw the univers universality of um money and gold and how the whole system worked repeatedly over time, you would understand there's that dynamic that's taking place.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你……如果你穿越时空，回到了1971年以前等等，你看到了历史，你看到了，嗯，货币和黄金的普遍性，以及整个系统在时间的推移中是如何反复运作的，你就会明白正在发生的那种动态。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But yes, people think they misunderstand.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但没错，人们的想法……他们误解了。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: They think it's a a metal to speculate on, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们认为它是一种用来投机的金属，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: They don't realize that actually it's a money.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们没有意识到它实际上就是一种货币。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. Central banks second largest money.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。它是各国央行持有的第二大货币。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. So when you're it's almost like when you look at the world through that money, you can see what things cost through that lens.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。所以当你……这几乎就像是，当你透过那种货币来看待世界时，你可以通过那个滤镜看到事物的真实成本。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Exactly.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 完全正确。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: people are looking at it instead like through a dollar lens and they see um gold go up.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然而人们是在透过美元滤镜来看待它，他们看到，嗯，黄金涨了。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. But that's or you could look you could look at the world through a gold lens and see money go down.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。但是那……或者你可以……你可以透过黄金滤镜来看待世界，然后看到货币贬值了。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. So all I'm saying is because of their experience and what it is, it's implausible.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。所以我真正想说的是，由于他们的经验和事物的现状，这（黄金是货币）对他们来说似乎是不合理的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It's like, you know, the the the tooth fairy or Santa Claus, you know, you it you you believe in these things and so on and then you you realize through the cycle and that's why surprises take place.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 就像，您知道，牙仙子或者圣诞老人，您知道，你……你……你相信这些东西等等，然后你……你通过周期意识到了真相，这就是为什么会发生意外。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That's why it seems implausible.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这就是为什么它看起来不合理。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um, but if you read history, it's almost, you know, it's it's logical.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，但如果你阅读过历史，这几乎是，您知道的，它是……它是合乎逻辑的。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Most security systems operate like old-fashioned cable internet.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 大多数安防系统的运作方式就像老式的有线互联网。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: They're installed in one place. are tied to one address and if you move or your job moves, you got to start over.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 它们被安装在一个地方。被绑定在一个地址上，如果你搬家或者你的工作地点变了，你就得重新开始。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: But that's not how other people do it.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 但其他人不是这么做的。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Construction sites, ranches, large properties, they have a better way.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 建筑工地、牧场、大型房产，他们有更好的方法。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: They need cameras that are portable, not tied down to one location.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 他们需要便携的、不被固定在一个位置的摄像头。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Defend security cameras are the perfect solution for ordinary people to do this.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: Defend 安防摄像头是普通人实现这一目标的完美解决方案。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: With Defend, you own the camera.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 有了 Defend，您就真正拥有了这个摄像头。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: You're not renting it like a modem from a cable company, and you're not locked to a building or a Wi-Fi network.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您不是像从有线电视公司租用调制解调器那样租用它，而且您也不会被锁定在一栋建筑物或一个 Wi-Fi 网络上。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: The job moves. Well, then the camera moves with it.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 工作地点转移了。好吧，那摄像头也跟着转移。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: That's a better way to do things.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 这是一种更好的做事方式。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: No power lines or infrastructure of any kind is required.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 不需要任何电源线或任何形式的基础设施。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: These run on cellular, like your phone.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 它们通过蜂窝网络运行，就像您的手机一样。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: They're perfect for watching job site equipment overnight, livestock at your ranch, long driveways, out buildings on your property.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 它们非常适合通宵看守工地设备、牧场里的牲畜、长长的车道以及您房产上的附属建筑。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: You mount it where you need it.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您可以把它安装在您需要的地方。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: You open the Defend app and you are set.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您打开 Defend 应用程序，一切就设置好了。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: You got clear footage, night vision alerts straight to your phone.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您能获得清晰的画面，夜视警报会直接发送到您的手机上。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Defend never sells any data to anyone.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: Defend 从不向任何人出售任何数据。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Not tech companies, not the government, not China.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 不卖给科技公司，不卖给政府，也不卖给中国。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Plans start at about five bucks a month.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 套餐起价约为每月5美元。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: There's no contract. You can cancel at any time.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 没有合同。您可以随时取消。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Visit defendellcam.com today. defend cellcam.com.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 今天就访问 defendcellcam.com。defendcellcam.com。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So, um, you don't seem surprised at all by anything that's happened or is happening right now.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 那么，嗯，您似乎对已经发生或正在发生的任何事情都不感到惊讶。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Um, what are a few other things you would not be surprised to see in the near future?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 嗯，在不久的将来，还有哪些事情是您看到了也不会感到惊讶的？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: For example, let's just start with gold.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 比如，我们先从黄金说起。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: What would you not be surprised to see the spot price of gold per ounce in like 5 years?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您觉得大概5年后，黄金每盎司的现货价格达到多少是您不会感到惊讶的？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Uh um I don't want to um you know that's one of those headline presuming I let me say it this way.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 呃，嗯，我不想，嗯，您知道那是那种容易上头条的猜测，我……让我这么说吧。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 好的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I think people pay too much attention to the spot price of whe is the spot going to go up or down or whatever.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我觉得人们过于关注现货价格了，现货价格是会涨还是会跌之类的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And what they don't do is think if I didn't have any view on gold, what amount should I have in my portfolio?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而他们没有做的是去思考：如果我对黄金没有任何预判，我的投资组合中应该持有多少份额？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words, if you did a portfolio construction exercise, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，如果您做一次投资组合构建练习，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And you said, um, what is an effective diversified portfolio and what assets should I have and what amounts in that?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您会问，嗯，什么是有效的多元化投资组合，我应该拥有哪些资产，以及持有多少金额？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Because gold is a a very effective diversifier and also a protector of this.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因为黄金是一种……一种非常有效的多元化工具，同时也是对此的保护者。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: During very bad times, gold does very well.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 在非常糟糕的时期，黄金的表现非常好。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: When the rest of your portfolio does poorly because let's say the 70s being a good example or the 30s being a good example, during those times it's a diversifier.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 当您投资组合中的其余部分表现不佳时——比方说70年代就是一个很好的例子，或者30年代也是一个很好的例子——在这些时期，它就是一个多元化工具。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay? So the optimal amount to have for um an individual or a central bank might be different but a but an individual would be depending on what's in their portfolio between five and 15% of a portfolio.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的？所以，嗯，个人或央行持有的最佳数量可能会有所不同，但是……但是根据个人投资组合的具体内容，其所占比例应该在5%到15%之间。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so what I would say is if you approach that question that way and you think what should I have you should have what I what we talked about before when my a year ago I guess and so on you should have that particular amount somewhere in that neighborhood depending on what your portfolio is like and uh because it's an effect of diversifier and it is a money okay when the traditional money does badly this money does well when the traditional money which gives you an interest rate then it's the reverse so you so that's the thing that I would try to convey to people you know okay do you have some of that what's the amount that's your comfort level you know but have some so
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我想说的是，如果您以这种方式来处理这个问题，并思考“我应该拥有什么”，您就应该拥有我……我们之前谈论过的，我想大概是一年前吧等等，您应该在那个区间附近持有特定数量的黄金，这取决于您的投资组合是什么样的，并且，呃，因为它是一种有效的多元化工具，而且它是一种货币，好的，当传统货币表现糟糕时，这种货币就表现得很好；当传统货币（能给您带来利率的货币）表现很好时，它就是反过来的，所以您……所以这就是我试图向人们传达的信息，您知道的，好的，您是否持有了一些？让您感到舒适的数量是多少？您自己把握，但一定要持有一些，所以……
如果您已准备好，请随时向我下达指令，我将继续为您输出第10章：拯救国家的“3%赤字承诺”为何在政治上是不可能的！
📝 本节摘要：
本节中，Tucker提问如果由Dalio来掌舵美国会作何对策。Dalio提出了“3%赤字承诺”的急救方案：即通过等比例地增税和削减开支，将国家预算赤字硬性降至GDP的3%以内，从而改善供需关系并降低利率。然而，当他向华盛顿的政客们提出这一常识性建议时，却被直言“不懂政治”。政客们既不敢增税也不敢削减福利，只能把希望寄托在AI等新技术的生产力奇迹上，妄图通过经济增长来冲销债务。但Dalio对此深表怀疑，并指出这根本无法在当前的危机时间表内解决问题，同时也无法解决普通民众所面临的深层教育危机与财富不平等分配问题。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: um what if you were running the United States or a country like the United States in its current position what would you need to do to protect your country in the midst of these changes, some of which are inevitable, some of which maybe aren't. Like what are the steps specifically that you would take to help your country?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 嗯，如果你在管理美国，或者一个像美国目前处于这样地位的国家，在这些变化中——有些是不可避免的，有些或许可以避免——为了保护你的国家，你需要做什么？比如，你会具体采取哪些措施来拯救你的国家？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um, I would be dealing with achieve uh something like a 3% budget deficit, not more than a 3% budget deficit.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，我会着手去实现，呃，类似3%的预算赤字，不超过3%的预算赤字。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um, I would try to get financial I I try to minimize or eliminate but minimize the risks of that dynamic I was talking about.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，我会努力获得金融方面的……我……我试图将其最小化或消除，总之是最小化我刚才谈到的那种动态变化带来的风险。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So you would get the budget deficit to 3%.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以你会把预算赤字控制在3%。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Yes. Um, and I I I would say um to every I've said to legislators, I go down to Washington and you know, leaders of both parties um and I said um um it's like um being on a ship and um everybody on the ship is headed to a rock and that and everybody knows that if you have a deficit of six or 7% of GDP, you're going to have a supply demand problem.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 是的。嗯，而且我……我……我会对每一位……我已经对立法者们说过了，我去了华盛顿，您知道，两党的领导人，嗯，我说，嗯……嗯，这就像，嗯，身处一艘船上，而且，嗯，船上的每个人都在向一块礁石驶去，而且，每个人都知道，如果你的赤字达到GDP的6%或7%，你就会面临供需失衡的问题。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I and I have the conversations and by and large this is the agreement.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我……我进行了这些对话，总的来说，大家对此是有共识的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And I don't care whether you turn left or you turn right in terms of that, but do not hit the rock.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 在这方面，我不在乎你是向左转还是向右转，但千万不要撞上那块礁石。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And what if I would do is I would take a 3% pledge.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而我如果来做的话，我会做出一个“3%承诺（3% pledge）”。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words, say I will get it down there.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，就是声明我会把它降到那个水平。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And if I can't agree on how, I would do it proportionately with three things.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果我们无法就具体怎么做达成一致，我会按比例在三件事上采取行动。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I would u proportionately with taxes spending in other words um um if you raised taxes by 4% if you cut spending by 4% and you lowered and which would lower interest rates because it would improve the supply demand and it would also convey the message that it's being dealt with.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我会，呃，按比例在税收和开支上作调整，换句话说，嗯，嗯，如果你增税4%，如果你削减开支4%，然后你降低……这将会降低利率，因为它会改善供需关系，同时也会传达出一个信号，那就是问题正在被处理。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: you would also lower the interest rate on the debt and those two things would begin to get it to approach about a 3% budget deficit and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你也会降低债务的利率，而这两件事将开始使其接近大约3%的预算赤字等等。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um um but doing that uh would require uh would be politically impossible.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，嗯，但是这么做，呃，将会需要……呃，在政治上是不可能的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So I I have these conversations and the answer is um you know like Rey, you don't understand the world of politics.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，我……我进行了这些对话，而得到的回答是，嗯，您懂的，大概就是“瑞（Ray），你不懂政治世界”。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If I'm um uh uh there I have to give at least one of two pledges.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果我，嗯，呃，呃，坐在那个位置上，我必须至少做出两个承诺中的一个。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um the pledge is and probably both. Um the pledges is I won't raise your taxes and I won't cut your benefits.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，这个承诺就是，而且很可能是两个都要。嗯，这些承诺就是：我不会增加你们的税收，我也不会削减你们的福利。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay? You don't raise the taxes, you know.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好吗？你不能增税，您懂的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So the there's a big move here primarily to uh try to grow your way out of it.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这里的主要动作是，呃，试图通过经济增长来摆脱困境。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words, again, you know, stimulate fiscal and monetary stimulation and hope that that produces perhaps with the new technologies and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，还是老一套，您知道的，进行财政和货币刺激，并希望借此能产生效果，也许再结合新技术等等。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That's the idea. Enough income growth and so on so that uh this moves toward that 3%.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这就是他们的想法。实现足够的收入增长等等，这样，呃，就能朝着那个3%的目标迈进。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um which is uh in my opinion a um not likely occurrence.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，但在我看来，这，呃，是一个，嗯，不太可能发生的情况。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Why is it not it's not likely that technology will turn out to be so uh beneficial and lucrative that it
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 为什么不可能？难道科技不太可能被证明是如此，呃，有益和有利可图，以至于它……
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I think that the techn that the artificial and technology miracle is a is a is a great miracle.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我认为科技……人工智能和科技奇迹是一个……是一个……是一个伟大的奇迹。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. I mean very uh very beneficial. Um and I've gone through studied great miracles. the invention of electricity.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。我的意思是非常，呃，非常有益。嗯，而且我经历过并研究过许多伟大的奇迹。比如电的发明。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I mean, wow. Well, imagine where we'd be without that.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我的意思是，哇哦。嗯，想象一下如果没有电我们会怎样。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But if you anyway, you I could describe what the 20s would like and 2000s and like and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但是如果你……总之，你……我可以描述（上世纪）20年代会是什么样子，以及2000年代是怎样的等等。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um the ability to convert that to enough of a productivity miracle um is is not I think probable in the also the time frame that we're dealing with.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，将其转化为足以解决问题的“生产力奇迹”的能力，嗯，我认为是不太可能的，而且还要考虑到我们正在应对的时间表。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So this is an issue. The debt is and that dynamic uh remains an issue.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这是一个问题。债务问题以及那种动态变化，呃，仍然是一个问题。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then of course what there is is the dynamic of of how that prosperity and productivity is shared.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后当然，还存在一个关于繁荣和生产力如何被分享的动态问题。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words, there's the um it's it creates a uh great wealth gap.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，存在着，嗯……它创造了一个，呃，巨大的财富差距。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You know, you're seeing um this we'll talk about wealth.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您知道的，你正在看到，嗯，这个……我们将谈论财富。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um I'm going to come back and talk about wealth, but um you're seeing great um increases in wealth on some populations on you know wow trillionaire okay and that kind of thing and then there's 60% of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level so that you take that sixth grade and okay now how are you going you still have to deal with the nature of that dynamic of how it comes so the question is what is the amount of productivity converted into income.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，我稍后会回过头来谈论财富，但是，嗯，你看到在某些人群中财富正在发生巨大的，嗯，增长，您知道的，哇哦，万亿富翁，好吧，诸如此类的事情；而与此同时，有60%的美国人阅读能力低于六年级水平，所以你把这六年级水平拿来考量，好的，现在你打算怎么做？你仍然必须应对财富分配方式本质上的那种动态变化，所以问题是，有多少生产力被转化为了收入。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: How does the government get that income to deal with its debt so the holders of the debt get a effective real return and don't have the problems?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 政府如何获得那笔收入来应对其债务，从而使得债务持有者获得有效的实际回报且不会面临问题？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: How does that happen you know in a politically acceptable way?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这如何在一个，您懂的，政治上可接受的方式下发生？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: There are lots of things that make that um you know uh very very difficult.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 有很多事情让这变得，嗯，您知道的，呃，非常非常困难。
如果您准备好了，请随时告诉我，我们将进入第11章：财富与金钱的错觉：无法兑现的账面财富与资本外逃！
📝 本节摘要：
本节探讨了“财富（Wealth）”与“金钱/货币（Money）”之间的本质区别。Dalio指出，账面财富很容易通过估值创造，但如果不卖出变现，它什么也买不了。当人们为了购买资产而大量借贷，一旦需要偿债就会被迫抛售财富换取金钱，从而刺破资产泡沫。面对日益严重的贫富差距，政客们往往试图对“财富（未实现收益）”征税，但这只会进一步逼迫富人抛售资产并导致价值暴跌。这种政策预期引发了明显的资本外逃现象——富人和资本正在从高税收、高冲突的地区（如加州）撤离，向德州、佛罗里达乃至中东等税收更低、更具活力且社会安定的地方转移，最终导致原发地的税基被严重“空心化”。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I want to say something about wealth and wealth taxes which is I think um worth understanding.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我想谈谈关于财富和财富税的一些事情，我认为，嗯，这是值得了解的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um there's a big difference between wealth and money and I want to just highlight it.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，财富和金钱之间有很大的区别，我想强调一下这一点。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um uh wealth is it it is is very easy to create because it's almost um accounting.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，呃，财富是……它非常容易被创造出来，因为它几乎就是，嗯，一种账面数字（会计处理）。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Let me what I mean by that is um I could uh put out a um raise $50 million or individuals can raise $50 million at a billion dollar valuation and they will call that that that's that person's a billionaire and that there's a billion dollars more wealth.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 让我……我的意思是，嗯，我可以，呃，发行一个，嗯，筹集5000万美元，或者个人可以以10亿美元的估值筹集5000万美元，然后他们就会称那个人为亿万富翁，并说那里多出了10亿美元的财富。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It's not literally that you have to have those transactions.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 并不是说你真的必须要有那些实际的交易资金。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And wealth is not worth very much unless you convert it to money.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 并且，除非你把它转化为金钱，否则财富并没有太大的价值。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words, you have all of that wealth, but you can't spend wealth.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，你拥有所有的那些财富，但你不能直接花掉财富。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You can't pay for dinner with it.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你不能用它来支付晚餐钱。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Right. Right.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 对的。对的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You have to sell it, sell some of it in order to get money, in order to pay it.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你必须卖掉它，卖掉其中的一部分以获取金钱，才能用来支付。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so when wealth rises a lot relative to money, you have a risky situation.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，当财富相对于金钱大幅增加时，你就会面临一个充满风险的局面。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay? Now the other thing about why is that a risky situation?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的？现在另一方面，为什么那是一个充满风险的局面？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Because when there's a movement, the the bubbles pop, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因为当出现某种异动时，泡沫……泡沫就会破裂，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: When there's a movement that I need to get money.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 当出现“我需要获取现金”的异动时。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Now that quite often is I need to get money because it's a debt service payment.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这种情况往往是：我需要获取现金，因为我要偿还债务。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: you know in other words let's say what quite often people borrow to buy wealth okay so there's a lot of borrowing now um not only in in buying stock but companies themselves buying to create wealth and when you need to get the money like in the in all the stock market bubbles there was a lot of borrowing to buy the wealth when the the need for money came along they had to sell some of that wealth to get the money and then that produces a dynamic.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您知道，换句话说，比方说，人们经常为了购买财富而借款，好的，所以现在有大量的借款，嗯，不仅是购买股票，公司自己也在通过购买来创造财富，而当你需要获得金钱时，就像在……在所有股市泡沫中一样，为了购买财富存在大量的借贷，当对金钱的需求出现时，他们不得不卖掉部分财富来换取金钱，然后这就产生了一种动态循环。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Well, you don't tax wealth.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，目前你们并没有对（未变现的）财富征税。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. So, because you don't tax wealth and then there is this political issue of of of wealth.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。所以，因为你没有对财富征税，然后就出现了这种关于财富的……财富的政治问题。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Are you going to tax wealth?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你们打算对财富征税吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: What is going to happen in California? What is going to happen in elsewhere in terms of taxing wealth?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 加州会发生什么？在其他地方对财富征税会发生什么？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you tax wealth, then imagine what happens. You have to sell wealth to pay taxes.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你对财富征税，那么想象一下会发生什么。你必须卖掉财富来缴税。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. So there's a dynamic understanding and that lowers the value of it, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。所以这里有一个可预见的动态机制，那会降低财富的价值，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And that's what pops bubbles, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而这正是刺破泡沫的原因，对吧？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So this the wealth issue is um is a political issue.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以这个……财富问题，嗯，是一个政治问题。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: The wealth gap issue is a political issue and it's a market issue.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 贫富差距问题不仅是一个政治问题，也是一个市场问题。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um and it's important issue to understand.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，而且这是一个理解起来非常重要的问题。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Is it inevitable that you would see given the way our wealth is allocated across 350 million people that that you would get the rise of wealth taxes?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 考虑到我们的财富在3.5亿人中的分配方式，看到财富税的兴起是不是不可避免的？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Isn't could this have been predicted?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 难道这不可预测吗？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: It it it seems like it it's such an obvious headline um seemingly um logical thing to do, right?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 这……这看起来就像，这似乎是一个如此显而易见的头条新闻，嗯，看似，嗯，是符合逻辑的做法，对吧？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: In other words, everybody would say, "Wait a second. All these people are having all the wealth and they're not paying any taxes on their wealth while this is going on. Okay, we need to go where the money is."
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 换句话说，每个人都会说：“等一下。所有这些人都拥有所有的财富，而在这一切发生的时候，他们却没有为自己的财富缴纳任何税收。好的，我们需要向钱所在的地方下手。”
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Right. Right.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 对。对。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So we so it seems like that without then you know the full understanding of of those things and how to do it in a you know managed way.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以我们……所以看起来好像是这样，在没有，您知道的，对这些事情有充分理解，且不知道如何以一种，您知道，受控的方式去执行它的情况下。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: But so it's anyway it's upon us certainly and what will happen I mean that's I think a referendum in California.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 但无论如何，它确实已经降临到我们头上了，而会发生什么，我的意思是，我想加州正在进行一项相关的公投。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So well I think what's what's happening is and we're seeing it around the world um in many different ways people are um people in California moving and and it's not the it happening it's the fear of it happening.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，嗯，我认为正在……正在发生的是，而且我们在世界各地都看到了，嗯，以许多不同的方式，人们正在……嗯，加州的人们正在搬离，而且……而且并不是这件事情真正发生了，而是对它即将发生的恐惧导致了这一切。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Right.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 对。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Right. So you're you know you're seeing that dynamic.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 对。所以您……您知道，您正在看到那种动态变化。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: I'm just a you know like I'm a mechanic of I get it. You're not judging other way. You're just describing what's happening but because that is happening and people are moving and not just within the country but outside the country. Do you have any guesses as to or observations about where people are moving?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 我只是一个，您知道，就像我是一个修理工，我懂了。您不是在做任何评判。您只是在描述正在发生的事情，但由于这正在发生，而且人们正在搬离，不仅是在国内，还有向国外搬迁的。您对人们搬去了哪里有什么猜测或观察吗？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So clearly in the country it's Texas, Florida but Wyoming but in the world where are people moving?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以很明显，在国内是德克萨斯州、佛罗里达州还有怀俄明州，但是在世界范围内，人们在向哪里搬迁呢？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: um there generally speaking they're moving to where there's um civility and opportunity and there's not much fighting there, you know, they want to be in places that um have a um uh they go to places that have lower taxation but also vibrancy.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，那……总的来说，他们正在向有，嗯，文明秩序（civility）和机会的地方搬迁，那里没有太多争斗，您知道的，他们想去那些，嗯，有……嗯，呃，他们去那些税收较低但同时充满活力的地方。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: you know, they go Texas and Florida as you say and um here in the Middle East or in um you know, places that um are also vibrant and things are happening.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您知道，正如您所说，他们去了德克萨斯和佛罗里达，还有，嗯，中东这里，或者是，嗯，您知道的，那些，嗯，同样充满活力且正在蓬勃发展的地方。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so you could see the patterns of those kinds of movements.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以您可以看清这类人口迁徙的规律。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And then the the problems that that creates is a hollowing out in those places, the other places because when they leave the tax base um is um you know um roughly speaking, you know, the top 10% um pays about 80% of 76% or something of the taxes.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 然后，那……那所带来的问题就是这些地方的空心化（hollowing out），那些其他地方，因为当他们离开时，税基，嗯，就会……嗯，您知道，嗯，粗略地说，您知道，前10%的富人，嗯，支付了大约80%、76%左右的税收。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so when you lose let's say half of them you lose a big amount of tax revenue and um then that becomes a you know a dynamic.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，比方说，当你失去了其中一半的人，你就会失去大量的税收收入，而且，嗯，这随后就会变成一种，您懂的，一种动态变化。
如果您已准备好，请随时告诉我，我们将进入本次访谈最后的第12章：内战担忧、央行数字货币（CBDC）的威胁与普通人的终极生存指南！
📝 本节摘要：
本节作为整场访谈的收尾，深入探讨了极化社会可能走向的终极悲剧：内战。Dalio指出，由于和平时期太久，人们忘记了战争的残酷并开始轻率地谈论诉诸武力。随后，Dalio解析了“央行数字货币（CBDC）”作为政府终极管控工具的本质：它不仅毫无隐私可言，还能让政府随时对异见人士切断金融服务、强行征税或没收资产。面对即将到来的“第六阶段”危机，Dalio给普通美国人留下了最核心的生存建议：量入为出、多元化投资、带资产跟随机会搬迁；最重要的是，把孩子教育好，远离内战与国际战争。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So could you see given all the factors you've described um like democracy representative democracy continuing in a in a country like ours?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以考虑到您所描述的所有因素，您能看到，嗯，像民主、代议制民主在我们这样的国家继续存在下去吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I um I you know I just I hope so.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我，嗯，我，您知道，我只是……我希望如此。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Oh, me too.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 哦，我也是。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I'm not just and um and I just don't know. I think um I I think we I I think deep in us we want most Americans really really want that and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我不仅仅是……而且，嗯，而且我只是不知道。我认为，嗯，我……我认为我们……我认为在我们内心深处，我们希望大多数美国人真的、真的很想要那个，等等。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um and then at the same time there are unreconc irreconcilable differences and um I think it was um a recent poll something like 25% of the um population said that they would fight violently for their side. I mean some significant percentage.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，而与此同时，存在着不可……不可调和的分歧，而且，嗯，我想那是一个，嗯，最近的民意调查，大约有25%的，嗯，人口表示，他们会为了自己的一方进行暴力斗争。我的意思是，这是一个相当可观的比例。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And um so and it only takes a relatively small amount. So I I don't think we can take it for granted.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而且，嗯，所以……而且只需要相对较小的一撮人（就能引发动荡）。所以我……我不认为我们可以想当然。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words, there's a lot we can't take for granted. And I think we want to cherish those things. We want to put those things above everything else, but you can't take it for granted.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，有很多事情我们不能视为理所当然。我认为我们要珍惜这些东西。我们要把这些事情置于一切之上，但你不能把这当成理所当然。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: When you hear people speaking lightly of civil war, what's your which they are, what's your reaction?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 当您听到人们轻率地谈论内战时——他们确实在这么做——您有什么……您的反应是什么？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um I I have a principle. If if you worry, you don't have to worry. And if you don't worry, you need to worry because if you worry, pro worry.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，我……我有一个原则。如果……如果你担忧，你就不必担忧。如果你不担忧，你就需要担忧了，因为如果你担忧，（你就会）提前担忧。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: If you worry, then you're more inclined to prevent the thing that you're worried about.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你担忧，那么你就更倾向于去预防你所担忧的事情。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So I think that the greater worry about some of these things is a good thing.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我认为对其中一些事情有更大的担忧是一件好事。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You know, in other words, okay, now we we won't take it for granted. We worry about these things. So what are we going to do about it?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您知道，换句话说，好吧，现在我们……我们不再想当然了。我们担忧这些事情。那么我们要怎么做呢？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I see people not worrying and sort of blindly blindly throwing it out like almost like the way they talk about some foreign policy operations was go in and you know kill these guys put these guys in it'll be fine.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我看到人们不担忧，并且有点盲目地……盲目地把它抛诸脑后，几乎就像他们谈论某些外交政策行动的方式一样，那就是冲进去，然后，您懂的，杀掉这些家伙，把那些家伙扶上位，一切就会好起来。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: That same attitude I hear a lot about the United States like well we're going to have to fight it out at some point.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 同样这种态度，我听到很多关于美国的言论，比如“好吧，我们在某个时候终究得通过打一仗来解决”。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: You've taken a close look at civil wars throughout history. What are they like?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您仔细研究过整个历史上的内战。它们是什么样的？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Well, civil wars and um and um international wars are so horrendous that every the the most bold people who were, you know, the trumpets blaring and and going into that um and so on, everyone came out of it with deep regret.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，内战和，嗯，和，嗯，国际战争是如此可怕，以至于每一个……最胆大妄为的人，那些，您知道的，吹响号角并……并投入其中，嗯，等等的那些人，每个人走出来时都带着深深的悔恨。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I mean, we can see while we see it on the um news and you can see that, but just imagine uh what how how horrendous um the wars are.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我的意思是，我们可以看到，当我们还在，嗯，新闻上看到它时，你可以看到那一幕，但请想象一下，呃，战争到底有……有……有多可怕，嗯。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um so um I I think it's a cycle, you know. Um your confidence and your boldness um is increased by the distance that you have to your last wars, you know, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，所以，嗯，我……我认为这是一个周期，您懂的。嗯，你的自信和你的胆量，嗯，是随着你距离上一次战争的时间跨度而增加的，您知道的，对吧？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Um what is the difference? You you were saying earlier there's a difference between uh money and wealth and wealth you said is um not necessarily easily convertible to money.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 嗯，区别是什么？您……您之前说，呃，金钱和财富之间存在区别，而且您说财富，嗯，不一定很容易转化为金钱。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: In a society like ours, where is the money? Who has the money? Is it the same people who have the wealth?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 在像我们这样的社会中，钱在哪里？谁拥有钱？是拥有财富的同一批人吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um no, no, no, no, no. Many people have a lot of wealth and don't have much money. They have illlquid assets.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，不，不，不，不，不。很多人拥有大量财富，但并没有多少钱。他们拥有缺乏流动性的资产。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes. Okay.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。好的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Uh me money is the is that what you can transact currency short-term deposits that you can assuredly and quickly turn into money. You know, that's what uh money is.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 呃，对于我来说，金钱是……是那些你可以用来交易的货币、短期存款，那些你可以确切且迅速地转化为现金的东西。您懂的，那才是，呃，金钱。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And um um and the central bank really controls the money.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而且，嗯，嗯，而且中央银行真正控制着金钱。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um and then you could look at who has that increasingly like you could look at um M0M1 and you could see money market accounts and you could see um those very liquid you know money safe money treasury bills those kinds of things and um so that um you know it's but ultimately it's the central bank because they control the supply demand.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，然后您可以看看谁越来越多地拥有它，比如您可以看看，嗯，M0、M1，您可以看到货币市场账户，您可以看到，嗯，那些流动性很强的，您知道的，金钱、安全的金钱、国库券这类东西，而且，嗯，所以，嗯，您知道那是……但归根结底是中央银行，因为他们控制着供需。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So I mean if in a period of volatility it would seem like the central bank would clamp down on the money supply circulating among people.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以，我的意思是，如果在波动时期，似乎中央银行会压制在人群中流通的货币供应量。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Well, it faces the tradeoff, right? The tradeoff is like in um let's say co right uh or in 1971 when there's too many claims and so on.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，它面临着权衡，对吧？这种权衡就像在，嗯，比方说新冠疫情（COVID）期间，对吧，呃，或者在1971年，当存在太多（黄金）兑换诉求时等等。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um there the trade-off is that um people need money and they may need money to pay debt and they may need money for whatever reasons and so they are tempted therefore to create money and so you see the coordination between fiscal policy and monetary policy.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，那里的权衡是，嗯，人们需要钱，他们可能需要钱来偿还债务，他们可能因为任何原因需要钱，因此，这就诱使他们去创造货币，因此您看到了财政政策和货币政策之间的协调。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So you saw two big waves of large budget deficits and large supports of central banks um uh uh first um under Trump when the uh co began and then under Biden when they got in and because he also wanted more universal basic income and both of those cases the government sent out lots of checks and that's also a popular thing to do.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以您看到了两波巨大的浪潮，大规模的预算赤字和中央银行的大力支持，嗯，呃，呃，首先是，嗯，在特朗普时期，当，呃，新冠疫情开始时；然后在拜登时期，当他们上台后，并且因为他也想要更多的全民基本收入，而在所有这两种情况下，政府都发出了大量的支票，这也是一件很受（选民）欢迎的事情。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: discipline, financial discipline is not what the population typically likes.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 纪律，金融纪律通常不是大众所喜欢的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Send out those checks, but where does the money come from and then the central bank cooperates by buying the government bonds and um produce, you know, print money and then buying those bonds.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 把那些支票发出去，但钱从哪里来？然后中央银行通过购买政府债券来配合，并且，嗯，制造，您懂的，印钞票，然后购买那些债券。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So, it's um when they're in the middle, you know, austerity is not an easy thing to have, right?
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，这是，嗯，当他们身处其中时，您知道，紧缩政策不是一件容易推行的事情，对吧？
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: What happens if the government is digital currency? Like what does that mean?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 如果政府推行数字货币会发生什么？比如那意味着什么？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Well, digital currency is right. You're talking about um central bank digital currencies.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，数字货币，对。您是在谈论，嗯，央行数字货币（CBDC）。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yeah.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Okay. And that um um there's a great deal of appeal because of uh the fact that it's easy and so on, but it's um and I think uh it'll it'll be um it'll be done. A lot happens.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 好的。而且那，嗯，嗯，有很大的吸引力，因为，呃，它很便捷等等，但是它，嗯，而且我认为，呃，它将……它将是，嗯，它会被实施的。会发生很多事情。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: You think it will be done?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您认为它会被推行实施吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um yeah I think it's and but what happens in the digital currency um of course it's easy to transact and so on um almost the and it'll be like money market funds I think um the question will be first uh will they be able to offer interest so there's a debate now as to whether they will be interest if they're not able to offer interest and they there will be a debate probably they won't be, but then they're not an effective vehicle to hold it in because you'll have the depreciation.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，是的，我认为它是……但是数字货币会发生什么呢？嗯，当然，它很容易交易等等，嗯，几乎……而且我认为它会像货币市场基金一样，嗯，首要问题将是，呃，他们能提供利息吗？所以现在有一场争论，即它们是否会生息，如果它们不能提供利息，而且他们……将会有一场争论，可能它们不会有利息，但那样它们就不是一个能用来持有的有效工具，因为你将面临贬值。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You'd rather hold it in a money market fund or a bond.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你还不如把它放在货币市场基金或债券里。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: But that's debate. There will be no privacy and it's a very effective controlling mechanism by the government.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 但那是争论的焦点。这里将毫无隐私可言，并且这是政府一种非常有效的控制机制。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: What I mean is all the transactions will be known. All transactions done with digital currencies will be known.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我的意思是，所有的交易都将被知晓。所有使用数字货币进行的交易都会被知晓。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: um which is good for illegal activities, getting control of legal activities, but it also means that the government has a great deal of control.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，这对于（打击）非法活动、获取对合法活动的控制权是有好处的，但这也意味着政府拥有了极大的控制力。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: For example, they can they can tax that way. They can take your money.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 比如，他们可以……他们可以通过这种方式征税。他们可以拿走你的钱。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: they can establish foreign exchange controls and the like and that'll um so that's something that uh will be an increasing issue particularly for international holders of that currency because they might feel let's say if you're a Frenchman and they wanted to have sanctions they could take your money course you know and and so on so there's the privacy issue uh of that um so uh and if you're politically disfavored you could be shut politically dislavered, you could be shut off.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他们可以建立外汇管制之类的内容，那将会，嗯，所以那是，呃，将会成为一个日益严重的问题的事情，特别是对于该货币的国际持有者来说，因为他们可能会觉得，比方说，如果你是一个法国人，而他们想要实施制裁，他们当然可以拿走你的钱，您懂的，等等，所以这里有关于那个的隐私问题，呃，嗯，所以，呃，如果你在政治上不受欢迎，你可能会被关停；政治上受排挤，你可能会被切断一切金融服务。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Yes.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 是的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um so those kinds of issues enter into it. For those reasons, I don't and and they're very tiny.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，所以各种各样的问题就随之而来了。基于这些原因，我不认为……而且它们目前规模还非常小。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um I don't think that you're going to see the development of central bank digital currencies to be of a magnitude that it's going to be um um you know that that big of a deal.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，我不认为你会看到央行数字货币的发展达到那种，嗯，嗯，您懂的，能产生那么大影响的规模量级。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um I I I think that doesn't mean it won't grow, but I don't think it's going to be um a big deal.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，我……我……我认为这并不意味着它不会增长，但我不认为它会成为，嗯，一件大事。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Um so so my last question is given um your description of the United States as in stage five in a process that only doesn't mean it's inevitable. Of course, but it there only six stages in the process you describe.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 嗯，所以……所以我的最后一个问题是，考虑到，嗯，您将美国描述为处于这个过程的第五阶段，这并不意味着结局是不可避免的。当然，但是您描述的过程中总共只有六个阶段。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So it's toward the terminus. It's it's the time that it's time to worry.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以它正走向终点。现在……现在到了该担忧的时候了。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So you go to Washington, you try to convince policy makers, members of Congress, people, administration, here's what you need to do.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 于是您去了华盛顿，您试图说服政策制定者、国会议员、人民、政府部门，“这是你们需要做的”。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: You've described the reception you get as like, hey, you don't understand politics. We can't do that. So that's, you know, not a lot of headway made obviously for obvious reasons.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 您将您受到的接待描述为就像，“嘿，你不懂政治。我们做不到那一点。” 所以那，您知道的，显然因为显而易见的原因，并没有取得多少进展。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Do you have advice for people watching who are not policy makers, who are just Americans as to what they can do to prepare for whatever comes next?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 对于正在观看节目的、不是政策制定者、只是一般美国人的观众，您对他们可以做什么来为接下来可能发生的事情做准备，有什么建议吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Uh well, you know, there's the there's the basics, you know, uh well, earn more than you spend, try to save, diversify your portfolio, h including about money and those um that's those things are of paramount importance.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 呃，嗯，您知道的，有一些……有一些最基本的东西，您知道的，呃，嗯，赚的比花的要多，试着储蓄，使你的投资组合多样化，包含货币，而这些，嗯，就是说这些事情是最重要的。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Um, think about the country, the opportunities. Where are the opportunities? People have migrated from one place to another. Follow the opportunities.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 嗯，思考一下国家，思考一下机会。机会在哪里？人们已经从一个地方迁移到另一个地方。去追随机会。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And most importantly is raise your children well. um you know so that they're well educated and able to be productive and also civil so that they can be um uh be effective and as I say there are only three things a country needs to do and that's the same for the individuals
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而最重要的是好好抚养你们的孩子。嗯，您知道，这样他们就能受过良好的教育，能够有所作为，并且具备文明素养，这样他们就能，嗯，呃，变得有能力。而且正如我所说，一个国家需要做的事情只有三件，对个人来说也是一样。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: you know raise your kids well uh so that they're well educated and can earn um an income um and operate go to places that work well so that they there's civility and productivity and there's opportunity and stay out of uh civil wars and international wars.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 您知道，好好抚养你们的孩子，呃，这样他们受过良好的教育并且能够赚取，嗯，一份收入，嗯；并且行动起来，去那些运转良好的地方，那里有文明、有生产力、有机会；并且远离，呃，内战和国际战争。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Those seem pretty obvious that I you do those things well. I mean really almost everything else takes care of itself.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 这些似乎非常显而易见，如果你把这些事情做好。我的意思是，真的几乎所有其他事情都会自然而然地迎刃而解。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Really?
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 真的吗？
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Yeah.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 是的。
[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Ray Dalio, thank you very much for that. It's always a pleasure.
[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio），非常感谢您分享这些。一直都是我的荣幸。
[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Thank you.
[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 谢谢您。