章节 1：引言：让我彻夜难眠的AI机遇与隐忧

📝 本节摘要：

讲者开篇点明了本期播客的主题，分享了一份让他“彻夜难眠”的AI趋势清单。这段引言奠定了全篇激动与隐忧并存的基调，强调当前的AI发展既充满了巨大的机遇，也伴随着令人不安的未知。讲者希望通过分享这些思考，激发听众的创造力，并为那些在AI浪潮中寻找突破方向的人提供切实的灵感。

[原文] [Speaker]: what's up everyone today I'm going to talk about all the things in AI that's keeping me up at night

[译文] [讲者]: 大家好，今天我要谈谈人工智能领域里所有让我彻夜难眠的事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: I've got a giant list of just things that I can't stop thinking about All the opportunities some things that scare me some ideas that you can take

[译文] [讲者]: 我有一份长长的清单，上面全是我无法停止思考的事情，包括所有的机遇、一些让我害怕的事情，以及一些你可以采纳的想法。

[原文] [Speaker]: And if you stick around to this whole episode uh maybe you'll be an insomniac like me

[译文] [讲者]: 如果你坚持听完这一整期节目，呃，也许你会像我一样失眠。

[原文] [Speaker]: Maybe it'll get those creative juices flowing

[译文] [讲者]: 也许这能让你的创造力源泉涌动。

[原文] [Speaker]: Maybe it'll just have a you'll have a better sense of why I'm so excited about you know where we're at right now and some things that also freak me out

[译文] [讲者]: 也许它只是让你……你会更好地理解为什么我对我们目前所处的阶段如此兴奋，以及一些同样让我感到害怕的事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um so I just figured I'd go up go on here and sort of reflect on a bunch of the things that are that are keeping me up at night that are just making me motivated that are that are interesting to me

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，所以我就想，我应该来到这里，回顾一下这一堆让我彻夜难眠、让我充满动力、让我觉得有趣的事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: And maybe it'll interest you too

[译文] [讲者]: 也许它们也会让你感兴趣。

[原文] [Speaker]: And you know if you're listening to this I think I think it probably will

[译文] [讲者]: 而且你知道，如果你在听这个，我想……我想它很可能会的。

[原文] [Speaker]: I think you know you're probably one of those people that you know see a lot of opportunity

[译文] [讲者]: 我想，你知道，你可能就是那种看到了很多机遇的人。

[原文] [Speaker]: Might be you know 90% see a lot of opportunity 10% a little scared

[译文] [讲者]: 可能是，你知道的，90%看到了大量机遇，10%感到有点害怕。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um but you're also looking for some ideas to help you move along and and make progress

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，但你也在寻找一些想法，来帮助你不断前行并取得进展。

章节 2：一小时公司技术栈（1-Hour Company Stack）：被彻底颠覆的创业时间线

📝 本节摘要：

本节探讨了“一小时公司技术栈”的概念，鲜明对比了传统创业与2026年AI时代的创业时间线。过去建立公司需要花费数月开发、一年才能获得首笔收入；如今，通过直觉编程（Vibe Coding）和代理工程平台（如Claude Code等），创业者可以在几小时内完成从灵感到产品的落地，并在午餐前实现迭代。讲者强调，这允许创业者构建一台持续试错的“机器”，同时指出积累受众与AI分发渠道是获取早期客户的关键前提。

[原文] [Speaker]: The first thing that's really you know I'm thinking a lot about right now is like the one hour company stack

[译文] [讲者]: 第一件真正让我，你知道，我现在思考很多的事情，就像是“一小时公司技术栈（one hour company stack）”。

[原文] [Speaker]: So you know you grab an idea you vibe code something you build a landing page you you know you you you add a stripe and you can get first customers

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，你知道，你抓住一个想法，你用直觉编程（vibe code）做点东西，你建一个落地页（landing page），你，你知道，你，你，你接入Stripe支付，然后你就能获得首批客户。

[原文] [Speaker]: I mean the fact that you can do this just the fact that this exists that you can go to ideabrowser.com get a validated idea and just start vibe coding things with whatever vibe coding tool you want is mind-blowing

[译文] [讲者]: 我的意思是，你能做到这一点的事实，仅仅是它存在的事实，即你可以去ideabrowser.com获取一个经过验证的想法，然后只需用你想要的任何直觉编程工具开始直觉编程，这令人震撼。

[原文] [Speaker]: The fact that you can create a company in a day

[译文] [讲者]: 事实上，你可以在一天内创建一家公司。

[原文] [Speaker]: So I think that like from my perspective I'm trying to think about how can I you know throw a lot more experiments uh against the wall you know um what are you know I don't want to just build one company try it for six months

[译文] [讲者]: 所以我认为，从我的角度来看，我正在试着思考，我如何才能，你知道，把更多的实验，呃，扔向墙壁（注：指不断试错），你知道，嗯，有哪些，你知道，我不想只建立一家公司然后尝试六个月。

[原文] [Speaker]: I want to just create a culture of and a machine that I'm creating multiple companies trying different things same audience or multiple audiences we're going to talk about audiences later but this whole idea around the 1 hour company stack I mean can't stop thinking about it

[译文] [讲者]: 我只想创造一种文化和一台机器，让我能够创建多家公司，尝试不同的事物，面向相同或多个不同的受众，我们稍后会谈论受众（audiences），但整个关于“一小时公司技术栈”的想法，我的意思是，我无法停止思考它。

[原文] [Speaker]: second thing is you know if you think about the old timeline and this relates to the first uh the first point the old timeline of building a company was you had an idea you hired devs that took a few a few months if you can find um uh you build an MVP if you're lucky that you know you can do that by month three you launch it maybe you go to product hunt um and then you know eventually you get to you know first revenue by month 12

[译文] [讲者]: 第二件事是，你知道，如果你回想一下旧的时间线，而且这与第一，呃，第一点有关，过去建立一家公司的时间线是，你有一个想法，你雇佣开发人员（devs），这需要几个月的时间，如果你能找到的话，嗯，呃，你建立一个最小可行性产品（MVP），如果你足够幸运，你知道，你能在第三个月做到这一点，你发布它，也许你去Product Hunt，嗯，然后，你知道，最终你在第12个月获得，你知道，第一笔收入。

[原文] [Speaker]: you know in 2026 you know you can have an idea or grab an idea from idea browser by 9:00 a.m have something built by 9:15 a.m have a product built by you know 9:45 you get the first customer by 10:00 and you iterate by lunch

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，在2026年，你知道，你可以在早上9:00有一个想法或者从idea browser抓取一个想法，在9:15前建好一些东西，在，你知道的，9:45前建好一个产品，在10:00获得第一个客户，然后在午餐前进行迭代。

[原文] [Speaker]: Someone is going to respond and be like "How is that possible that's vibe coded slop."

[译文] [讲者]: 有人会回应并说：“这怎么可能，那只是一堆直觉编程生成的垃圾（vibe coded slop）。”

[原文] [Speaker]: There's a few reasons how this is possible One is you use a you know you're not you're using a vibe coding platform I shouldn't even say a vibe coding platform a agent engineering platform

[译文] [讲者]: 能够做到这一点有几个原因，其一是你使用一个，你知道，你不是，你在使用一个直觉编程平台，我甚至不应该说直觉编程平台，而是一个代理工程平台（agent engineering platform）。

[原文] [Speaker]: You're using something like Claude Code

[译文] [讲者]: 你在使用像Claude Code这样的东西。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um or or or you know there's competitors too Um and you know you you you build something comprehensive

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，或者，或者，或者，你知道，也有竞争对手，嗯，而且你知道，你，你，你建立了一些全面的东西。

[原文] [Speaker]: I mean Codeex has gotten pretty good You know Google AI Studio has gotten pretty good Um Cloud Code's gotten pretty good

[译文] [讲者]: 我的意思是Codeex已经变得相当好了，你知道，Google AI Studio已经变得相当好了，嗯，Cloud Code（注：指Claude Code）已经变得相当好了。

[原文] [Speaker]: So just the fact that you can do this um with one of those tools is awesome

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，仅仅是你可以用这些工具中的一个做到这一点，嗯，就棒极了。

[原文] [Speaker]: The second thing is you know you do have to have an email list You do have to have an audience You do have to have some customers in order to actually get them you know because uh otherwise you know as you know you know finding the customers is is really hard

[译文] [讲者]: 第二件事是，你知道，你确实必须有一个电子邮件列表，你确实必须有一个受众群体，你确实必须有一些客户才能实际获得他们，你知道，因为，呃，否则，你知道，正如你所知，你知道，寻找客户是，是非常困难的。

[原文] [Speaker]: but if you have been building distribution if you have been and that's another thing that's been keeping me up at night is just using using AI to build distribution

[译文] [讲者]: 但是如果你一直在建立分发渠道（distribution），如果你一直在这样做，而这也是另一件让我彻夜难眠的事情，那就是仅仅使用，使用人工智能来建立分发渠道。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um so yeah the old time versus new timeline definitely something I've been thinking about

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，所以，是的，旧时间线对比新时间线，绝对是我一直在思考的事情。

章节 3：隐形商业（Ambient Businesses）与代理经济（Agent Economy）时代的到来

📝 本节摘要：

本节引出了“隐形商业”的概念，即几乎不需要人类日常干预的自动化企业。讲者预测这些由AI代理负责市场监控、执行和客服的企业未来将达到千万级营收。同时，讲者梳理了科技发展的时间线，指出我们已经从应用商店时代（2009-2015）和API经济时代（2015-2024），正式跨入了由AI主导的代理经济时代（2025-2030）。

[原文] [Speaker]: The other thing that's uh keeping me up at night is this concept uh I'm calling ambient businesses.

[译文] [讲者]: 另一件呃让我彻夜难眠的事情是这个概念，呃，我称之为隐形商业（ambient businesses）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So you know ambient businesses that run with zero or very low daily human input uh input.

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，你知道，隐形商业（ambient businesses）在零人工或极低的人类日常输入，呃，输入下运行。

[原文] [Speaker]: So having agents monitoring market identifying opportunities executing for you you know handling customer service and basically setting up a business that you just check in once every few days.

[译文] [讲者]: 也就是让代理（agents）监控市场、识别机会、为你执行，你知道，处理客户服务，并且基本上建立一个你只需每隔几天检查一次的业务。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um and just see what's going on.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，只是看看进展如何。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um I think that we're going to get to a point where these ambient businesses or autonomous businesses uh are going to start doing seven eight figures.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，我认为我们将达到这样一个阶段，这些隐形商业或自主商业（autonomous businesses），呃，将开始创造七位数、八位数的营收。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um so this whole concept is just really really cool to me.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，所以整个这个概念对我来说真的非常非常酷。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um I think we're really early.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，我认为我们还处于非常早期的阶段。

[原文] [Speaker]: I think that um a lot of the autonomous uh company builder softwares end up building like very AI slop stuff.

[译文] [讲者]: 我认为，嗯，很多自主的、呃，公司构建软件（company builder softwares）最终构建出的东西就像是非常垃圾的AI生成物（AI slop stuff）。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um but I do think that you know this direction I like to think about it as like the arrow of progress.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，但我确实认为，你知道，这个方向，我喜欢把它看作是进步的箭头（arrow of progress）。

[原文] [Speaker]: The arrow of arrow of progress is moving us in this direction of you're going to be building ambient or autonomous businesses.

[译文] [讲者]: 进步的箭头，进步的箭头正把我们推向这个方向，即你将建立隐形或自主商业。

[原文] [Speaker]: You won't need to check in every single hour you're going to have checks and balances that are going to steer uh your agents in the right places and uh I think there's just a huge opportunity there.

[译文] [讲者]: 你不需要每隔一小时就检查一次，你会有制衡机制（checks and balances）来引导，呃，你的代理走向正确的地方，而且，呃，我认为那里有着巨大的机遇。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um this timeline the agent economy timeline is something that also keeps me up at night.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，这条时间线，代理经济（agent economy）的时间线，也是让我彻夜难眠的事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: So between 2009 and 2005 uh sorry 2009 and 2015 that really was the app store er era.

[译文] [讲者]: 所以在2009年到2005年，呃，抱歉，2009年到2015年之间，那真的是应用商店（app store）时代。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know people downloaded apps and humans operated them.

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，人们下载应用程序，然后由人类来操作它们。

[原文] [Speaker]: Then in 2015 to 2024 I think the API economy really started to take over.

[译文] [讲者]: 然后在2015年到2024年，我认为API经济（API economy）真正开始接管。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know developers were wiring APIs together.

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，开发者们将各种API连接在一起。

[原文] [Speaker]: I believe that you know 2025 to 2030 the agent economy is is here.

[译文] [讲者]: 我相信，你知道的，2025年到2030年，代理经济，代理经济已经到来。

章节 4：代理雇佣代理：AI代理的“玻璃门（Glassdoor）”与全新组织架构

📝 本节摘要：

本节探讨了代理经济发展成熟后的奇特景象：“代理雇佣代理”。当AI代理具备自主执行任务的能力时，它们之间会形成类似人类职场的组织架构（如CEO代理、销售代理等）。讲者甚至构想了一个针对AI代理的“玻璃门（职场评价网站）”或社交网络，用于评估和建立代理的声誉体系。此外，讲者引用了Gartner的预测，指出到2030年，高达20%的商业活动将是代理之间（机器对机器）的交易，这为创业者提供了巨大的想象空间和全新的创业思路。

[原文] [Speaker]: So agents discovering and hiring other agents on the fly

[译文] [讲者]: 因此，代理在运行中发现并雇佣其他代理。

[原文] [Speaker]: So fix texts dissolving

[译文] [讲者]: 所以固定文本正在消解（注：或指固定的结构正在瓦解）。

[原文] [Speaker]: I actually think that there's like a huge startup idea for someone to build the glass door of uh AI agents

[译文] [讲者]: 我实际上认为这里有一个巨大的创业想法，就是有人去建立一个呃AI代理的“玻璃门（glass door，注：美国知名职场评价网站）”。

[原文] [Speaker]: So how do you you know create reputation uh around agents and who to hire um if someone could you know create a marketplace like sort of like a mold book that was a social network or is a social network for for agents that got acquired by Meta for allegedly $200 million

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，你如何，你知道，围绕代理以及雇佣谁建立声誉，呃，如果有人能够，你知道，创建一个像mold book那样的市场，它过去是或者现在是一个代理的社交网络，据说被Meta以2亿美元收购。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know what is the glass door of AI agents i know this sounds like such a far-fetched idea but this is going to happen

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，什么是AI代理的玻璃门，我知道这听起来像是一个非常牵强的想法，但这将会发生。

[原文] [Speaker]: I read a stat uh I think that said uh I think it was by Gartner 20% by uh of commerce by 2030 will be uh agent to agent machine to machine

[译文] [讲者]: 我读到一个数据，呃，我想它说的是，呃，我想是Gartner发布的，到2030年，20%的呃商业活动将是呃代理对代理、机器对机器的。

[原文] [Speaker]: So how do you create startups that uh that recreate the you know that look at uh internet products um and just create the agent version of it

[译文] [讲者]: 那么，你如何创建初创公司，去呃去重建，你知道，去看呃互联网产品，嗯，然后直接创建它的代理版本。

[原文] [Speaker]: So I think um there's you know this market is going to 52 billion in 2030

[译文] [讲者]: 所以我认为，嗯，有，你知道，这个市场到2030年将达到520亿美元。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um today there's 31,000 agent skills on marketplaces

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，今天市场上有31,000种代理技能。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um but they're pretty bad

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，但它们相当糟糕。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know uh most of them are are actually garbage

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，呃，它们中的大多数实际上都是垃圾。

[原文] [Speaker]: So I think there's a huge opportunity to build skills build agents

[译文] [讲者]: 所以我认为这里有一个巨大的机会去构建技能、构建代理。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um and you know it's giving me bags under my eyes

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，而且你知道，这让我都熬出了眼袋。

[原文] [Speaker]: So this whole concept of agents hiring agents CEO agents sales agent dev agents marketing agents

[译文] [讲者]: 所以这整个概念，代理雇佣代理，CEO代理、销售代理、开发代理、营销代理。

[原文] [Speaker]: I recently did a uh tutorial on how to use paperclip which is you know speaks to this concept

[译文] [讲者]: 我最近做了一个呃关于如何使用paperclip的教程，它，你知道的，就说明了这一概念。

[原文] [Speaker]: It's an open- source technology

[译文] [讲者]: 它是一项开源技术。

[原文] [Speaker]: Go check that out if you haven't

[译文] [讲者]: 如果你还没看过，去看看吧。

[原文] [Speaker]: But basically creating an org chart like a serverless function where agents spin up subtasks and shut them down when them done

[译文] [讲者]: 但基本上就是创建一个组织架构图，就像无服务器功能（serverless function）一样，代理在其中启动子任务，并在完成时关闭它们。

[原文] [Speaker]: I mean this this is just such an interesting idea

[译文] [讲者]: 我的意思是，这，这真是一个非常有趣的想法。

[原文] [Speaker]: Instead of actually prompting via jobs to be done framework it's like with humans how do you actually just hire agents who manage other agents to get the job done super super interesting and uh you know lot of opportunity there

[译文] [讲者]: 与其通过“待办任务（jobs to be done）”框架来进行实际的提示，不如像对待人类一样，你究竟如何直接雇佣那些管理其他代理的代理来完成工作，超级超级有趣，而且，呃，你知道，那里有很多机会。

章节 5：垂直AI与结果导向定价（Outcome-based Pricing）：为何它的市场比传统SaaS大十倍

📝 本节摘要：

本节重点分析了垂直AI（Vertical AI）相较于传统垂直SaaS的颠覆性优势。讲者指出，传统SaaS仅能获取企业的IT预算，而垂直AI则直接切入企业的劳动力损益表（Labor P&L），替代部分人力成本，因此其潜在市场总额（TAM）将比传统SaaS大10倍。伴随这一转变，软件的定价模式也将从传统的“按席位付费（Seat-based）”和“按使用量付费”向“按结果付费（Outcome-based Pricing）”演进，为创业者提供了巨大的商业重构机会。

[原文] [Speaker]: YC predicts that there's going to be 300 plus unicorns in vertical AI in in in you know this decade

[译文] [讲者]: YC预测在这个，在这个，在这个，你知道的，这十年里，垂直AI（vertical AI）领域将会出现300多家独角兽公司。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um so vertical software huge you know huge opport you know huge business constellation software uh I think they own like 500 plus companies or something like that they've built you know SAS for vertical you know in the vertical software space so like super boring workflows in you know education in defense in you know all sorts of like really boring stuff um and uh there there's the same opportunity to sort of build your own consolation software but in vertical AI

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，所以垂直软件是巨大的，你知道，巨大的机会，你知道，巨大的企业星系软件（constellation software），呃，我想他们拥有大概500多家公司或类似规模，他们建立了，你知道，面向垂直领域的SaaS，你知道的，在垂直软件领域，比如在，你知道，教育、国防、你知道的所有那些非常无聊的领域里超级无聊的工作流，嗯，而且，呃，在垂直AI领域同样存在建立你自己的星系软件（consolation software）的机会。

[原文] [Speaker]: So I think that uh you know if you're listening to this thinking about like what do you have an unfair advantage what is your niche uh that you understand really well um because I think that the people that you know are building uh in the vertical a uh agent map uh I think there's a lot of opportunity you know the YC's of the world are going to focus on these big big categories insurance real estate logistics elderare legal healthcare sales um I'm not suggesting that you go and do that um I think that you should pick a wedge in a subniche of one of these uh you know vertical categories

[译文] [讲者]: 所以我认为，呃，你知道，如果你正在听这个，想想你的不公平优势（unfair advantage）是什么，你非常了解的利基市场（niche）是什么，嗯，因为我认为那些，你知道，正在构建，呃，在垂直，呃，代理版图（agent map）上构建的人，呃，我认为有很大的机会，你知道，世界上像YC这样的机构会专注于这些非常大的品类：保险、房地产、物流、养老、法律、医疗保健、销售，嗯，我不建议你去涉足那些，嗯，我认为你应该在这些，呃，你知道的，垂直品类中选择一个子利基市场（subniche）作为切入点。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know start there and then sort of expand from there

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，从那里开始，然后从中扩展。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know there's going to be so much funding uh into these into these big categories

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，将会有大量的资金，呃，投入这些，投入这些大品类。

[原文] [Speaker]: So you kind of want to you know just pick something that has a a little less uh competition

[译文] [讲者]: 所以你大概会想，你知道，只选一些竞争稍小一点的领域。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um but I do think that there's a lot of opportunity here

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，但我确实认为这里有很多机会。

[原文] [Speaker]: So you know how do you think about vertical SAS versus vertical AI so this is something I'm thinking a lot about

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，你知道，你如何看待垂直SaaS对比垂直AI，这是我思考很多的事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: Vertical SAS captures a fraction of it spend

[译文] [讲者]: 垂直SaaS获取的是IT支出（IT spend）的一小部分。

[原文] [Speaker]: You're generally selling software licenses

[译文] [讲者]: 你通常是在销售软件许可证。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um humans are operating the tool and you're looking at the $10 to $100 million outcome usually

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，人类在操作这些工具，而你通常着眼于1000万到1亿美元的结果。

[原文] [Speaker]: Of course there's exceptions to that rule

[译文] [讲者]: 当然这个规则也有例外。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh vertical AI taps directly into labor P&L

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，垂直AI直接切入劳动力损益表（labor P&L）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So what I mean by that is you're getting uh you're building basically an agent as a software because you're doing that the thing that uh pe uh companies are hiring you to do is what they would hire human beings to do

[译文] [讲者]: 所以我的意思是，你得到的是，呃，你基本上是在构建一个作为软件的代理（agent as a software），因为你这样做，这件，呃，人们，呃，公司雇佣你去做的事情，正是他们过去会雇佣人类去做的事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: So the actual market for vertical AI is bigger than vertical SAS

[译文] [讲者]: 因此，垂直AI的实际市场比垂直SaaS更大。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know you're going to want to think about selling outcomes and results agents are doing the work and because of this I think that the outcomes in vertical AI are on average going to be bigger than they are in vertical SAS

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，你会想要考虑销售成果和结果，代理在做这些工作，正因为如此，我认为垂直AI带来的成果平均而言会比垂直SaaS更大。

[原文] [Speaker]: So unlike SAS uh which captures IT budget vertical AI replaces headcount and that's just a 10x bigger total addressable market

[译文] [讲者]: 所以与SaaS，呃，获取IT预算不同，垂直AI替代的是人员编制（headcount），而那恰恰是一个大10倍的潜在市场总额（total addressable market）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So yeah if that's not keeping you up at night and all the opportunities here I do not know what is

[译文] [讲者]: 所以是的，如果这，以及这里所有的机会不能让你彻夜难眠，我不知道还有什么能。

[原文] [Speaker]: So what are some boring gold mine verticals um you want to look at stuff that just runs on phone calls and faxes and boring stuff

[译文] [讲者]: 那么，什么是那些无聊的金矿垂直领域呢，嗯，你要去寻找那些仅仅依靠电话和传真以及无聊的东西运行的领域。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh these are all big categories like insurance but you know insurance still uses 30-year actuary tables legal uh logistics elder care government accounting construction

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，这些都是大品类，比如保险，但你知道，保险业仍在使用30年的精算表，法律、呃、物流、养老、政府、会计、建筑。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know you're going to want to pick stuff want to pick stuff with you know in these subniches in these niches but subniched very very subniched down

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，你会想要选择一些东西，想要选择一些带有，你知道的，在这些子利基市场（subniches）里的，在这些利基市场里的，但是要细分，非常非常细分下去。

[原文] [Speaker]: And you know if I were you I'd try to pick something that doesn't have a lot of red tape

[译文] [讲者]: 而且你知道，如果我是你，我会尽量选择一些没有太多繁文缛节（red tape）的东西。

[原文] [Speaker]: Obviously selling to government is really hard

[译文] [讲者]: 显然，向政府销售非常困难。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um so you know things like that is are probably less interesting but you know the more boring the better

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，所以你知道，像那样的事情可能就不太有趣了，但你知道，越无聊越好。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh and the more niche the better to start

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，而且起步时越细分（niche）越好。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh so SAS is really uh evolved uh in terms of like how we've been pricing

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，所以SaaS确实，呃，进化了，呃，就我们一直以来的定价方式而言。

[原文] [Speaker]: So it used to be that you would do per seat licensing uh $50 a user a month or whatever

[译文] [讲者]: 过去你是按席位颁发许可证（per seat licensing），呃，每个用户每月50美元或之类的。

[原文] [Speaker]: All these all these you know big SAS companies did this

[译文] [讲者]: 所有这些，所有这些，你知道的，大型SaaS公司都这么做。

[原文] [Speaker]: And that's why you're seeing a huge correction in the stock market with well two reasons why you're seeing a huge correction in the stock market with SAS companies I mean some of these stocks are down like 50 60%

[译文] [讲者]: 这就是为什么你看到股票市场出现了巨大的回调，嗯，有两个原因解释了为什么你看到SaaS公司的股票市场出现了巨大的回调，我是说其中一些股票下跌了大约50%、60%。

[原文] [Speaker]: Huge companies uh that were once trading at like 12x revenue are now trading at 4x revenue on billions of dollars of revenue

[译文] [讲者]: 庞大的公司，呃，曾经以大约12倍的市销率交易，现在在数十亿美元营收的基础上以4倍的市销率交易。

[原文] [Speaker]: And why is it happening well it's happening because uh you know there's going to be less seats one and then two people are scared that uh or investors are scared that you can just vibe code these solutions

[译文] [讲者]: 为什么会发生这种情况，嗯，它发生的原因是，呃，你知道的，第一，席位会减少，然后第二，人们害怕，呃，或者投资者害怕你可以直接通过直觉编程（vibe code）搞定这些解决方案。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um so yeah go you know the evolution is going from uh went from seats to usage based so pay for what you consume to now you're just seeing a lot more outcomebased stuff

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，所以，是的，去吧，你知道，这种演变正在从，呃，从基于席位（seats）走向基于使用量（usage based），即为你消耗的资源付费，而现在你看到了更多基于结果的（outcomebased）东西。

[原文] [Speaker]: So pay per result delivered

[译文] [讲者]: 也就是按交付的结果付费（pay per result delivered）。

[原文] [Speaker]: And why are you seeing that because you're getting you're having agents actually do the work

[译文] [讲者]: 为什么你会看到这种情况，因为你正让，你正在让代理实际去完成工作。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um so yeah Gartner says 40% of enterprise SAS shifts to outcomebased by 2030

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，所以是的，Gartner表示，到2030年，40%的企业级SaaS将转向基于结果的模式（outcomebased）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So seedbase is going to decline from 21 to 15%

[译文] [讲者]: 因此，基于席位的模式（seedbase）将从21%下降到15%。

[原文] [Speaker]: So you know where's the opportunity why is this keeping me up at night what are what are ways to go and create outcomebased pay per result businesses right now um there's so many there's so many

[译文] [讲者]: 那么，你知道机会在哪里，为什么这让我彻夜难眠，有哪些，有哪些途径去创建基于结果的、按结果付费（pay per result）的企业，嗯，现在有太多了，有太多了。

[原文] [Speaker]: And if you can be the first to market you have an advantage there because when you're reaching out to people you know be a cold or even if you're just posting uh on your email newsletter or on your you know social media accounts you know there's there's it's interesting to people right so uh you might be able to sell a lot more

[译文] [讲者]: 如果你能率先进入市场，你就在那里拥有了优势，因为当你接触人们时，你知道，不论是冷启动（cold），还是即使你只是在，呃，你的电子邮件通讯，或者你的，你知道的，社交媒体账号上发帖，你知道，有，有，它对人们来说是有趣的，对吧，所以，呃，你也许能够卖出更多。

[原文] [Speaker]: So this whole seatbased versus outcomebased you know shift is just fascinating the old way of $100 a seat a month pay when whether you use it or not

[译文] [讲者]: 所以这整个基于席位对比基于结果的，你知道，转变简直太迷人了，旧的方式是每个席位每月100美元，不管你用不用都得付钱。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh you know you get you pay 10 seats you get $1,000 a month

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，你知道你买，你为10个席位付款，你每月付出1000美元。

[原文] [Speaker]: And like the value is unclear I think we've all kind of felt this

[译文] [讲者]: 而且价值是不清晰的，我想我们都有过这种感觉。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know there's some I won't name names but there's some software that uh my company my holding company Late Checkout pays for um and I'm just like do we is it do are we getting the value out of this um you know we're paying thousands of dollars a month

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，有一些，我就不点名了，有一些软件，呃，我的公司，我的控股公司Late Checkout为其付费，嗯，然后我就在想，我们是不是，是不是，我们有没有从中获得价值，嗯，你知道，我们每个月要付几千美元。

[原文] [Speaker]: So this whole idea around you know maybe you pay $1.50 50 per resolve tickets

[译文] [讲者]: 所以整个围绕这个的想法，你知道，也许你为每张解决的工单支付1.50美元、50美元。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um pay only for results

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，只为结果买单。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um and you have companies like Zenesk which is pretty big already doing this

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，然后你看到像Zendesk这样的公司，它已经相当大了，正在这么做。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um you know 83% of AI native SAS is already switched

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，你知道，83%的AI原生SaaS（AI native SAS）已经完成了转变。

[原文] [Speaker]: So my you know my big point with all this is someone's going to build a billion dollar business doing nothing but converting converting legacy SAS to uh outcome pricing

[译文] [讲者]: 所以我的，你知道，关于这一切，我的重点是，有人将建立一家十亿美元级别的企业，只做一件事，就是将传统SaaS（legacy SAS）转化为，呃，结果定价（outcome pricing）。

[原文] [Speaker]: And uh I think there's just a lot of opportunity to help them do that

[译文] [讲者]: 而且，呃，我认为有大量的机会去帮助他们做到这一点。

[原文] [Speaker]: I also think there's a ton of opportunity to just go and build outcome based startups on your own

[译文] [讲者]: 我也认为有海量的机会让你自己去直接建立基于结果的初创公司。

[原文] [Speaker]: Like why even help them um when you could be uh when you could just be incubating yourself um I definitely think there something to be thinking about

[译文] [讲者]: 就像，为什么还要帮助他们呢，嗯，当你能够，呃，当你能够只是自己孵化这些项目时，嗯，我绝对认为这值得思考。

章节 6：SaaS墓地与稀缺性反转：“人类制造（Human-made）”在AI时代的极致溢价

📝 本节摘要：

本节探讨了在AI浪潮冲击下即将出现的“SaaS墓地”，指出通用CRM、基础分析面板、模板市场等缺乏深度的传统工具将被淘汰。随着基础编程、内容生成和常规分析被AI“商品化”，价值创造的重心正从“执行”向“判断”转移。讲者提出了“稀缺性反转”的概念：在数字内容可以无限生成的时代，真正的溢价将属于具有创造性判断力、“人类制造（Human-made）”的手工艺、怪诞的思想以及真实的物理体验（如密室逃脱、现场音乐等体验经济）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So uh I h I have to mention like I do think that there's going to be somewhat of a SAS graveyard but you know I started to think about like what is the framework for thinking about what's going to die

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，呃，我，我必须提一下，比如我确实认为某种程度上将会出现一个SaaS墓地（SAS graveyard），但是你知道，我开始思考，比如用来思考什么将会消亡的框架是什么。

[原文] [Speaker]: So I think generic CRM are probably going to uh die

[译文] [讲者]: 所以我认为通用的CRM（客户关系管理系统）可能会，呃，消亡。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh I'm not saying that Salesforce is going to die I'm not saying that HubSpot is going to die

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，我不是说Salesforce会消亡，我也不是说HubSpot会消亡。

[原文] [Speaker]: Those companies you know you can see see the writing on the wall and they're moving towards that future

[译文] [讲者]: 那些公司，你知道，你能看出，看出不祥之兆（the writing on the wall），而且它们正在向那个未来转型。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um but I am saying that if you're generic um and you're not moving to this feature you probably won't you probably won't work

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，但我是在说，如果你是通用的，嗯，而且你没有向这个特性（注：指AI特性）转变，你可能就不会，你可能就行不通了。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh so agents are going to do it better

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，所以代理（agents）会做得更好。

[原文] [Speaker]: Basic analytics dashboard not those businesses probably not working because AI generates insights on demands

[译文] [讲者]: 基础的分析仪表盘，不，那些业务可能行不通了，因为AI可以按需生成洞察。

[原文] [Speaker]: Template marketplaces very tough business to be in because AI is generating custom templates in instantly um scheduling tools I don't know right like where's the future of that when a agents handle calendars natively and just basic customer support you know chat bots are already replacing this so what is going to survive here well basically vertical workflow tools that pivot to agent companies infrastructure and data modes

[译文] [讲者]: 模板市场，这是一个非常艰难的行业，因为AI能在瞬间生成自定义模板；嗯，日程安排工具，我不知道，对吧，当代理原生处理日历时，它的未来在哪里？还有基础的客户服务，你知道聊天机器人（chat bots）已经在取代这个了；那么什么能在这里生存下来呢？嗯，基本上是那些向代理公司转型的垂直工作流工具、基础设施和数据护城河（data modes）。

[原文] [Speaker]: so uh there's basically this scarcity flip that's happening so what is being uh commoditized by AI

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，呃，基本上正在发生这种稀缺性反转（scarcity flip），那么什么是正在被，呃，AI商品化的东西呢？

[原文] [Speaker]: AI will code generic contact uh sorry generic content basic design data entry and routine analysis

[译文] [讲者]: AI将编写通用的联系人，呃，抱歉，通用的内容（generic content）、基础设计、数据录入和常规分析。

[原文] [Speaker]: So what's what is scarce and premium and what I keep thinking about and a lot of people talk about this on on Twitter is that you know the the value is going to migrate from execution to judgment

[译文] [讲者]: 那么，什么是稀缺且具有高溢价的（premium），以及我一直在思考、且很多人在Twitter上谈论的是，你知道，价值，价值将从执行（execution）迁移到判断（judgment）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So creative judgment humanmade crafts physical experiences I'm looking at incubating stuff here

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，创造性判断、人类制造的手工艺品（humanmade crafts）、物理体验，我正在考虑在这里孵化一些项目。

[原文] [Speaker]: It's really you know a a huge opportunity

[译文] [讲者]: 这真的是，你知道的，一个，一个巨大的机会。

[原文] [Speaker]: Original weird thinking just like being weird is going to sell uh in 2026 and beyond

[译文] [讲者]: 原创的、怪诞的思想（weird thinking），仅仅是表现得怪异，就会在，呃，在2026年及以后大卖。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh because a lot of these LLMs are just they're not good at being weird

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，因为很多这些大语言模型（LLMs），它们只是，它们不擅长表现得怪异。

[原文] [Speaker]: And you had you know you have a unique uh purview into life

[译文] [讲者]: 而你拥有，你知道，你对生活有一种独特的，呃，视域（purview）。

[原文] [Speaker]: You've experienced certain things

[译文] [讲者]: 你经历过某些事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: So like leaning into your weirdness and then proprietary data

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，像拥抱你的怪异之处，然后是专有数据（proprietary data）。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh what is the premium stack um in terms of you know what are people going to value the most in an AI world is something that I'm thinking a lot about and I think that the most premium is going to be humanmade

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，什么是高溢价技术栈（premium stack），嗯，就，你知道在AI世界里人们最看重什么而言，这是我思考很多的事情，并且我认为最高溢价的将会是“人类制造（humanmade）”。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh I don't know if you saw the uh Porsche uh campaign where they did a 100% human-made ad campaign

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，我不知道你是否看到了，呃，保时捷（Porsche）的，呃，活动，他们做了一个100%由人类制作的广告活动。

[原文] [Speaker]: So it was like a race to establish an AI free logo

[译文] [讲者]: 所以这就像是一场确立“无AI（AI free）”标志的竞赛。

[原文] [Speaker]: I could see that luxury brands are going to lean into human-made and no AI involved

[译文] [讲者]: 我能预见奢侈品牌将倾向于人类制造（human-made）且无AI参与（no AI involved）。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh think of like certification labels like organic for food right no AI

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，想想就像食品的“有机”认证标签一样，对吧，无AI。

[原文] [Speaker]: So that's just something to think about in terms of like ideas for building stuff

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，就构建产品的想法而言，这只是一件需要思考的事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: Premium no AI involved

[译文] [讲者]: 高溢价（Premium），无AI参与。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh most premium

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，最高溢价。

[原文] [Speaker]: The premium would be AI assisted but human-led

[译文] [讲者]: 次高溢价将是AI辅助（AI assisted）但由人类主导（human-led）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So having some human in the loop I think is going to be seen as premium in the AI age

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，在循环中加入一些人类（human in the loop），我认为在AI时代将被视为具有高溢价的。

[原文] [Speaker]: So you get human taste with AI speed and then I think a commodity uh you know from a from a perception perspective will be like I'm buying just a fully AI service and then I think there's sort of a race to zero pricing uh in some categories

[译文] [讲者]: 这样你就能以AI的速度获得人类的品味（human taste），然后我认为，呃，你知道，从认知的角度来看，一种商品（commodity）将会像是我买的只是一个全AI服务，然后我认为在某些品类中将会出现某种价格竞底（race to zero pricing）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So I you know I mentioned that I was interested in incubating and investing in you know basically IRL stuff and the reason why is when digital is infinite and AI generated scarcity shifts to physical pre presence with other humans right so I think things like you know karaoke bars you know escape rooms uh immersive theater you know co-working uh live music you know this whole experience economy me is already here and accelerating and there's just a ton of opportunity here and that's keeping me up all all night

[译文] [讲者]: 所以我，你知道，我提过我对孵化和投资，你知道，基本上是现实生活（IRL, In Real Life）中的东西感兴趣，原因是当数字事物变得无限且由AI生成时，稀缺性（scarcity）就转移到了与其他人类的物理存在（physical presence）上，对吧？所以我认为，像，你知道的，卡拉OK酒吧、你知道的，密室逃脱（escape rooms）、呃，沉浸式剧场（immersive theater）、你知道的，共享办公、呃，现场音乐，你知道，这整个体验经济（experience economy），嗯，已经到来并且正在加速，这里有大量的机会，而这正让我彻夜彻夜地难眠。

章节 7：创始人-代理契合度（Founder-Agent Fit）与幽灵团队（Ghost Team）

📝 本节摘要：

本节探讨了AI时代对创始人能力要求的新变化。讲者提出，过去的“创始人-市场契合度（Founder-Market Fit）”正在演变为“创始人-代理契合度（Founder-Agent Fit）”。未来的创始人将更像电影导演，其核心能力在于能否有效地编排和管理一支由AI代理组成的“幽灵团队”。未来公司的“关于我们”页面可能只会展示少数几个人类和一群拥有名字和性格的AI代理，这一组织架构的巨变也将催生更多拥有多个AI原生代理业务的控股公司。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um another interesting concept is is this concept called uh founder agent fit

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，另一个有趣的概念是，是这个叫做呃创始人-代理契合度（founder agent fit）的概念。

[原文] [Speaker]: So you know when I was on the you know on the come up uh so to speak um it was all everyone just kept talking about when I moved to Silicon Valley everyone kept talking about founder founder market fit

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，你知道，当我在，你知道，在成长阶段，呃，可以这么说，嗯，所有人都在不停地谈论，当我搬到硅谷时，所有人都在不停地谈论创始人，创始人-市场契合度（founder market fit）。

[原文] [Speaker]: Do you understand the customer and the market do you have do you have some insight as you as the founder into the market so if you uh were building a social network for college students you know were you recently a college student or are you a college student and I believe that you know where we're going is founder agent fit fit

[译文] [讲者]: 你了解客户和市场吗？你，作为创始人，你对市场有一些洞察吗？所以如果你，呃，正在为大学生建立一个社交网络，你知道，你最近是一名大学生吗，或者你现在是一名大学生吗？并且我相信，你知道，我们要去往的方向是创始人-代理契合度（founder agent fit），契合度。

[原文] [Speaker]: So can you orchestrate a fleet of agents you know towards your goal so uh you know the bigger shift here is thinking as yourself as a film director

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，你能否编排一支代理舰队，你知道的，朝着你的目标前进，所以，呃，你知道，这里更大的转变是把自己想象成一名电影导演。

[原文] [Speaker]: So a film director is not holding a camera

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，电影导演是不拿摄像机的。

[原文] [Speaker]: The film director is not acting

[译文] [讲者]: 电影导演是不演戏的。

[原文] [Speaker]: The film director is not writing the score

[译文] [讲者]: 电影导演是不写配乐的。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh you know they get performances for actors

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，你知道，他们为了演员获得表演。

[原文] [Speaker]: They're trying to get the most out of their actors

[译文] [讲者]: 他们试图充分挖掘演员的潜力。

[原文] [Speaker]: Now the actor is you know shifting from a person to a machine essentially

[译文] [讲者]: 现在，演员，你知道，本质上正在从一个人转变为一台机器。

[原文] [Speaker]: So I think that this that founder skill that founder agent fit is just an interesting you know shift that's happening um and if you're really good at you know building agents for a particular niche managing them getting the most out of them uh then you have an unfair advantage

[译文] [讲者]: 所以我认为这种，这种创始人技能，这种创始人-代理契合度，只是一个有趣的，你知道的，正在发生的转变，嗯，如果你真的擅长，你知道，为特定的利基市场构建代理、管理它们、充分发挥它们的作用，呃，那么你就拥有了不公平的优势。

[原文] [Speaker]: We talked a little about this uh with regards to paperclip and and you know zero human companies but you know this whole idea of a ghost team org chart like the fact that you know in the future you know I imagine a team page you know you go to a website and you go to the about page and then you click the team section maybe and then you see all these people and and their and their big smiles and you really get to know the team

[译文] [讲者]: 我们讨论了一点关于这个，呃，关于paperclip和，你知道，零人类公司的事情，但你知道，这整个关于幽灵团队组织架构图（ghost team org chart）的想法，比如事实上，你知道，在未来，你知道我能想象一个团队页面，你知道，你进入一个网站，你进入关于页面，然后你也许点击团队部分，然后你看到所有这些人，以及他们的，以及他们灿烂的笑容，你真的去了解这个团队。

[原文] [Speaker]: But the future ghost team you know might be just a couple people and a bunch of AI agents sales agents content agents customer support

[译文] [讲者]: 但是未来的幽灵团队，你知道，可能只有几个人和一群AI代理，销售代理、内容代理、客户支持。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh and those are maybe you name them

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，那些可能由你来给它们命名。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh maybe they have personalities

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，也许它们有个性。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh maybe you end up even creating images for who these people are

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，也许你最终甚至会为这些人是谁创建图像。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um and eventually they're going to talk back to you right they're going to be able to video chat you

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，并且最终它们会和你回话，对吧，它们将能够和你视频聊天。

[原文] [Speaker]: They're going to be able to send you voice notes like it's going to be exactly well not exactly but it's going to be in the ballpark of working with a human being

[译文] [讲者]: 它们将能够给你发送语音留言，就像它将会完全，嗯，不是完全，但它将会非常接近于与一个人类一起工作。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh so it's just you know this whole idea of ghost team or chart I mean is crazy as as a person who's building a holding company and incubating businesses um I think there's going to be a lot more holding companies uh because you're going to own a bunch of AI native agent businesses uh in similar niches or the same niche um and you're going to have these ghost teams running it

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，所以只是，你知道，这整个关于幽灵团队组织架构图的想法，我的意思是，很疯狂，作为一个正在建立控股公司和孵化业务的人，嗯，我认为将会有更多的控股公司，呃，因为你将拥有很多在相似利基市场或同一利基市场里的AI原生代理业务，嗯，而且你将让这些幽灵团队来运营它。

章节 8：微型垄断数学模型：AI时代的“100个铁杆粉丝”法则

📝 本节摘要：

本节中，讲者对凯文·凯利著名的“一千个铁杆粉丝”理论进行了AI时代的升级版迭代。他指出，由于AI代理能将企业的边际成本几乎降至零，现在的创业者只需要“100个铁杆粉丝”即可建立一个真实且高利润的生意。通过一个人加上一群AI代理，向100个客户每月收取50或数千美元，就能创造惊人的单人净利润。讲者将这种以极低成本撬动高收益的商业模式称为“微型垄断数学模型（Micro Monopoly Maths）”，并鼓励创业者借此孵化矩阵式业务。

[原文] [Speaker]: So uh I remember Kevin Kelly uh talking about the hundred true or the thousand true fans

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，呃，我记得凯文·凯利（Kevin Kelly）呃谈论过一百个铁杆粉丝或者一千个铁杆粉丝（的理论）。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh and if you're listening to this you probably have heard I've heard of that

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，如果你在听这个（播客），你可能已经听说过，我已经听说过那个（理论）了。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um but I think that you know it's not necessarily a thousand true fans anymore in the AI age

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，但我认为，你知道的，在AI时代，它不一定非得是一千个铁杆粉丝了。

[原文] [Speaker]: And this is something I've been thinking about

[译文] [讲者]: 而这是我一直在思考的事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: I think it's more like the 100 true true fans because agents are cutting your cost so dramatically that a 100 people paying you is a real business

[译文] [讲者]: 我认为它更像是100个真正的铁杆粉丝，因为代理极大地削减了你的成本，以至于有100个人为你付费就是一个真实的生意了。

[原文] [Speaker]: And because of the fact that you can build software and charge you know $1,000 a month or $500 a month because they are doing the work of potentially human beings then you know there's a way to build a huge business there

[译文] [讲者]: 而且由于你能构建软件并收取，你知道的，每月1000美元或每月500美元（的事实），因为它们（软件）正在完成潜在这应该由人类完成的工作，那么，你知道，这就有一种方法在那里建立一个庞大的企业。

[原文] [Speaker]: Also you can they don't even need to pay you that much right you because you can run it with agents

[译文] [讲者]: 此外，你可以，他们甚至不需要付给你那么多钱，对吧，你，因为你可以用代理来运行它。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um and you your team needs to be so small from a cost perspective could only be you right then I just think that there's this like world where you create these like micro monopoly maths

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，而且你，你的团队从成本角度来看需要非常小，可能只有你自己，对吧，那么我只是认为，存在着这样一个世界，在那里你创造这些就像微型垄断数学模型（micro monopoly maths）一样的东西。

[原文] [Speaker]: So you know I'll go through I'll go through what I mean by this

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，你知道的，我将详细说明，我将详细说明我的意思。

[原文] [Speaker]: Let's say you have a 500 5,000 engaged niche audience

[译文] [讲者]: 假设你有一个500，5000人的高参与度的利基受众群体。

[原文] [Speaker]: You build a custom app

[译文] [讲者]: 你构建一个定制的应用程序。

[原文] [Speaker]: Maybe it's in 48 hours you know if you have an audience or if you have a newsletter or something you can get to a hundred customers over $50 at $50 a month but then you're running the business with with agents

[译文] [讲者]: 也许是在48小时内，你知道的，如果你有受众或者如果你有新闻通讯录之类的东西，你能够获得一百个客户，超过50美元，每月（支付）50美元，但随后你正在用，用代理来运营业务。

[原文] [Speaker]: So uh and then you're making about $60,000 of profit for one person which is incredible

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，呃，然后你一个人就能赚取大约60,000美元的利润，这简直难以置信。

[原文] [Speaker]: And then you can go and incubate multiple of these and expand this one

[译文] [讲者]: 然后你可以去孵化多个这样的项目，并扩展这一个。

[原文] [Speaker]: So yes you do need to get a hundred customers at $50 a month

[译文] [讲者]: 所以是的，你确实需要获得一百个每月支付50美元的客户。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um and that's why you know I believe uh you know building media and building content and uh understanding how to build a machine that you know creates highquality meta ads is is really helpful here

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，这就是为什么，你知道的，我相信，呃，你知道，建立媒体和建立内容，以及，呃，理解如何建立一台，你知道，能够创造高质量Meta广告的机器，在这里是非常有帮助的。

[原文] [Speaker]: So even if you don't have an audience you know you can pay for them and yeah it's going to cut into your profits but so be it

[译文] [讲者]: 所以即使你没有受众，你知道你可以花钱买（受众），而且是的，这会削减你的利润，但那就随它去吧。

章节 9：代理攻击面（Agent Attack Surface）：令人担忧的数字安全漏洞与权限卫生

📝 本节摘要：

本节的基调从乐观的商业畅想转向了对网络安全的深度担忧。讲者指出，赋予AI代理过高的系统权限（甚至银行账户访问权）带来了极其危险的“代理攻击面（Agent Attack Surface）”。传统的网络钓鱼依赖人类判断作为防线，而现在针对上下文窗口的污染和代理注入（Agent Injection）则直接利用了AI的自主性，其潜在危害远超过去。为了应对这些隐患，讲者呼吁建立定期的“数字卫生（Digital Hygiene）”习惯以清理代理权限，同时也指出AI网络安全领域将出现海量的创业机遇。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um one thing that you know I' I've been pretty optimistic uh during you know up up until now but uh I will say one thing that kind of freaks me out is the the agent attack surface

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，有一件事，你知道，我，我之前一直相当乐观，呃，在，你知道，直到现在，但是，呃，我要说有一件事让我有点害怕，那就是代理攻击面（agent attack surface）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So uh you know I'm sure you've heard of prompt injections things like poison context windows malicious MCP service a uh agent to agent manipulation permission escalation compromised training data

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，呃，你知道，我确信你听说过提示词注入（prompt injections）、像污染上下文窗口（poison context windows）、恶意MCP服务、呃、代理对代理的操纵（agent to agent manipulation）、权限提升（permission escalation）、被破坏的训练数据（compromised training data）等事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: Basically because we're giving access to you know so much through our ai agents I would be lying to you if I said this didn't freak me out that bad things you know are going to happen

[译文] [讲者]: 基本上，因为我们通过我们的AI代理赋予了，你知道的，如此多的访问权限，如果我说这没有让我感到害怕，没有让我觉得糟糕的事情，你知道的，将会发生，那我就是在对你撒谎。

[原文] [Speaker]: And I think bad things are going to happen

[译文] [讲者]: 而且我认为糟糕的事情将会发生。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know I think that cyber security hasn't caught up to this how fast we're moving in this AI agent world and because of that I think uh you know some bad things are going to happen

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，我认为网络安全（cyber security）还没有跟上我们在AI代理世界中前进的速度，正因为如此，我认为，呃，你知道，一些糟糕的事情将会发生。

[原文] [Speaker]: So of course it's going to keep me up at night um you know PaloAlto Networks uh documented real world agent uh injection attacks and uh you know if Palo Alto Networks is saying there's going to be a bunch of real world agent injection attacks well I tr I definitely trust them

[译文] [讲者]: 所以这当然会让我彻夜难眠，嗯，你知道Palo Alto Networks（帕罗奥图网络）呃记录了现实世界中的代理，呃，注入攻击，并且呃，你知道，如果Palo Alto Networks说将会有一系列现实世界中的代理注入攻击，那么我，我绝对相信他们。

[原文] [Speaker]: So how should we think about agent injection versus fishing so like h you know in the p in the in the past if you think about fishing uh like say 2010 it was basically like how do you trick a human being into clicking a bad link you know targeting email inboxes human judgment is the defense right

[译文] [讲者]: 那么我们该如何看待代理注入（agent injection）与网络钓鱼（fishing）的对比呢，就像，呃，你知道，在，在，在过去，如果你回想网络钓鱼，呃，比如在2010年，那基本上就像是你如何欺骗一个人类去点击一个恶意链接，你知道的，以电子邮箱为目标，人类的判断力就是防御手段，对吧。

[原文] [Speaker]: so if you're if you had a good eye for fishing like chances are you'd be okay even with that billions were lost per year

[译文] [讲者]: 所以如果你，如果你对网络钓鱼有敏锐的眼光，很有可能你会安然无恙，即便如此，每年仍有数十亿美元的损失。

[原文] [Speaker]: so you know agent injection where we are today as of recording this you know you could trick an AI agent via hidden instructions

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，你知道的，代理注入，也就是在录制本期节目时我们今天所处的状况，你知道，你可以通过隐藏指令来欺骗AI代理。

[原文] [Speaker]: It targets context windows and web content

[译文] [讲者]: 它针对的是上下文窗口和网络内容。

[原文] [Speaker]: The agent autonomy is the vulnerability and I believe that the potential is far bigger than fishing

[译文] [讲者]: 代理的自主性（agent autonomy）就是漏洞所在，而且我相信其潜在危害远远大于网络钓鱼。

[原文] [Speaker]: So where a where agents have system access and make autonomous decisions poisoning their context window uh I guess is the new fishing right so uh I think it can be a lot more dangerous

[译文] [讲者]: 因此，当代理拥有系统访问权限并做出自主决定时，污染它们的上下文窗口，呃，我猜这就是新的网络钓鱼，对吧，所以，呃，我认为这可能会危险得多。

[原文] [Speaker]: I think a lot of bad things are going to happen

[译文] [讲者]: 我认为很多糟糕的事情将会发生。

[原文] [Speaker]: I do think that there's a ton of opportunity to build you know cyber security soft software that helps with this

[译文] [讲者]: 我确实认为有大量的机会去构建，你知道的，有助于解决这个问题的网络安全（cyber security）软件。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um so that's you know a whole rabbit hole of startup ideas I can go down

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，所以那是，你知道，一整个我可以深入探究的关于创业想法的兔子洞（rabbit hole）。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh but I I think uh it's something to be aware of

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，但是我，我认为，呃，这是需要意识到的事情。

[原文] [Speaker]: The other thing to be uh thinking a little bit about is the agent permission stack right so what can your agent access you know files emails calendars bank accounts

[译文] [讲者]: 另一件需要呃稍微思考一下的事情是代理权限栈（agent permission stack），对吧，那么你的代理能访问什么，你知道的，文件、电子邮件、日历、银行账户。

[原文] [Speaker]: People are giving bank account access to some of their agents right you're seeing them you know here's here's $5,000 Go and trade for me

[译文] [讲者]: 人们正在把银行账户的访问权限开放给他们的一些代理，对吧，你看到他们，你知道，“这儿，这儿有5000美元，去帮我交易吧”。

[原文] [Speaker]: You know what can your agent remember conversations personal data business data

[译文] [讲者]: 你知道，你的代理能记住什么，对话、个人数据、业务数据。

[原文] [Speaker]: What can your uh agent do sending emails make purchases modify code delete data

[译文] [讲者]: 你的呃代理能做什么，发送电子邮件、进行采购、修改代码、删除数据。

[原文] [Speaker]: What can your agent share you know for example with other agents or with third parties

[译文] [讲者]: 你的代理能分享什么，你知道，比如与其他代理或第三方分享。

[原文] [Speaker]: The point here is you're going to want to do some digital hygiene

[译文] [讲者]: 这里的关键是，你会想要做一些数字卫生（digital hygiene）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So quarterly agent cleanses re review permissions like you review app access uh on on the web

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，进行季度的代理清理，重新审查权限，就像你在，呃，在网络上审查应用程序访问权限一样。

[原文] [Speaker]: So you know sometimes I'll go into some some of some of the SASes I use and uh I'll be like yeah this particular you know app really doesn't need access to it So I I I dislink it

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，你知道，有时我会进入一些，一些，我使用的一些SaaS（SASes），然后呃，我会想，“是的，这个特定的，你知道，应用程序真的不需要访问它”，所以我，我，我断开它的链接。

[原文] [Speaker]: And I think we're going to do a similar thing with agent permissions as well

[译文] [讲者]: 而且我认为我们也会对代理权限做类似的事情。

章节 10：非对称机遇窗口期：公开构建（Build in Public）与社区护城河

📝 本节摘要：

本章作为全篇的总结，强调了目前处于AI创业的“非对称机遇窗口期”。讲者指出，这个黄金窗口可能只有12到24个月，之后竞争将会白热化。在这个阶段，只需极低的投入（API密钥、少量受众等），就能打造出利润极高的自动化企业。面对未来AI业务极易被克隆（“分叉”）的挑战，讲者强烈呼吁创业者拥抱“公开构建（Build in Public）”。通过将用户转化为共同构建者，社区将成为抵御代码抄袭的最强“护城河”。最后，讲者鼓励大家立刻动手，在边做边学中把握这个不可思议的时代。

[原文] [Speaker]: I believe that now in a you know in in the AJI the build cost is basically zero.

[译文] [讲者]: 我相信现在在一个，你知道的，在AGI（通用人工智能）时代，构建成本基本上是零。

[原文] [Speaker]: Agents are doing a lot of the work.

[译文] [讲者]: 代理（Agents）正在做大量的工作。

[原文] [Speaker]: There's a ton of niches that are wide open and audiences are underpriced.

[译文] [讲者]: 有海量的利基市场（niches）完全敞开着，而且受众的获取成本被低估了。

[原文] [Speaker]: I don't believe that this is going to last forever.

[译文] [讲者]: 我不相信这种情况会永远持续下去。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um but this is what's motivating me so much.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，但这正是让我如此充满动力的地方。

[原文] [Speaker]: I think that there's 12 months where competition starts catching up.

[译文] [讲者]: 我认为大概有12个月的时间，竞争对手就会开始迎头赶上。

[原文] [Speaker]: Some of the best niches get claimed.

[译文] [讲者]: 一些最好的利基市场将被占领。

[原文] [Speaker]: Some of the tools get crowded.

[译文] [讲者]: 一些工具赛道将变得拥挤不堪。

[原文] [Speaker]: I think there's probably 24 months where the window narrows.

[译文] [讲者]: 我认为可能在24个月内，这个窗口期就会变窄。

[原文] [Speaker]: The builders who get started now are going to start owning moes around data network brand trust.

[译文] [讲者]: 现在就开始行动的构建者们（builders）将开始围绕数据、网络、品牌和信任建立护城河（moats）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So people keep waiting for things to settle down.

[译文] [讲者]: 所以人们一直在等待尘埃落定。

[原文] [Speaker]: Things are not settling down.

[译文] [讲者]: 事情是不会尘埃落定的。

[原文] [Speaker]: This is the new normal.

[译文] [讲者]: 这就是新常态。

[原文] [Speaker]: I think that there's a so much opportunity here.

[译文] [讲者]: 我认为这里有太多的机会了。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um and that's why every day matters so much.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，这就是为什么每一天都如此重要。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um and you know you definitely can listen to the podcast Startup Ideas podcast this podcast right here um because I'm just sharing things in real time um and and just trying to help help help you you know increase your probability of success with ideas tactics that I see working in real time.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，而且你知道你绝对可以听听播客，也就是这个《创业点子播客（Startup Ideas podcast）》，嗯，因为我只是在实时分享一些事情，嗯，并且只是想帮助、帮助、帮助你，你知道的，用我实时看到行之有效的点子和策略，来提高你成功的概率。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh I believe that this window is asymmetric.

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，我相信这个窗口期是非对称的（asymmetric）。

[原文] [Speaker]: So uh you know what I mean by that is what you need is an API key some prompts a tweet a niche audience of you know as we talked about today like pretty small 100 to 5,000.

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，呃，你知道我的意思是，你所需要的只是一个API密钥、一些提示词（prompts）、一条推文，以及一个你知道的就像我们今天谈论的那样非常小的、100到5000人的利基受众群体。

[原文] [Speaker]: And there's this asymmetry.

[译文] [讲者]: 这里就存在着这种非对称性。

[原文] [Speaker]: So what you can get is a business that runs 247.

[译文] [讲者]: 因此你能得到的是一个全天候（24/7）运行的企业。

[原文] [Speaker]: You could create a business that has 95% margins.

[译文] [讲者]: 你可以创造一个拥有95%利润率的企业。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh you could you know it's it's not crazy if it's if it's agent first you know.

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，你可以，你知道如果它是，如果它是“代理优先（agent first）”的，这就并不疯狂，你知道的。

[原文] [Speaker]: Okay Could it go to 70% 80% 60% yes but these are incredible businesses that you can be creating uh with compounding distribution and zero or a few employees.

[译文] [讲者]: 好的，它的利润率会变成70%、80%、60%吗？是的，但这些都是你可以创造的令人难以置信的企业，呃，拥有复利增长的分发渠道，而且零员工或只有极少数员工。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um so I believe that this is the most asymmetric time to be building a startup.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，所以我相信这是建立初创公司最具非对称性优势的时期。

[原文] [Speaker]: What people are saying now is don't build them public don't build them public.

[译文] [讲者]: 现在人们在说的是，不要公开构建（build in public），不要公开构建它们。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um it used to be build public build them public build them public.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，过去常常是公开构建，公开构建它们，公开构建它们。

[原文] [Speaker]: And I think that you you know it is helpful to build them public and people say don't build them public because they're you're inviting competition.

[译文] [讲者]: 而且我认为你，你知道，公开构建它们是有帮助的，而人们说不要公开构建，因为那是，你是在招致竞争。

[原文] [Speaker]: I think that the benefits outweigh the cons um specifically like building for you know if if your followers and your audience is actually your customers then you could share what you're building.

[译文] [讲者]: 我认为这利大于弊，嗯，特别是像为了，你知道，如果，如果你的粉丝和你的受众实际上就是你的客户，那么你就可以分享你正在构建的东西。

[原文] [Speaker]: The community could vote on what they're on what you're building.

[译文] [讲者]: 社区可以对他们，对你正在构建的东西进行投票。

[原文] [Speaker]: And what's so cool about this AI age now is you can ship ship updates in a day or two days or 5 days.

[译文] [讲者]: 而现在这个AI时代最酷的地方在于，你可以在一天，或者两天，或者5天内发布，发布更新。

[原文] [Speaker]: Users are basically becoming co-builders and that just increases trust and distribution compound.

[译文] [讲者]: 用户基本上成了共同构建者（co-builders），而这恰恰增加了信任和分发的复利效应。

[原文] [Speaker]: So it creates this really cool uh flywheel when you're building with your audience.

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，当你和你的受众一起构建时，这就创造了一个非常酷的，呃，飞轮（flywheel）。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um I also believe that you know forking a business like how you fork for fork a repo on GitHub uh is going to be very common.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，我也相信，你知道，分叉（forking）一个业务，就像你如何在GitHub上分叉，分叉一个代码仓库一样，呃，将会变得非常普遍。

[原文] [Speaker]: So you know in a world where you can just copy other people's businesses really quickly bringing in a community and and making them feel like they're a part of building what you're building I think is going to be absolutely uh a huge mode and and really important.

[译文] [讲者]: 所以，你知道，在一个你可以非常快速地直接复制别人业务的世界里，引入一个社区，并且，并让他们感觉自己是你正在构建的事物的一部分，我认为这绝对会成为，呃，一个巨大的护城河（moat/mode），并且，并且非常重要。

[原文] [Speaker]: And there you have it I mean like I said this is an incredible time to be building.

[译文] [讲者]: 好了，就是这样。我的意思是就像我说的，这是一个令人难以置信的构建时期。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um there's just so much so many things happening all at the same time.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，只是有太多、太多的事情同时在发生。

[原文] [Speaker]: Uh it does feel overwhelming in a lot of ways.

[译文] [讲者]: 呃，在很多方面确实让人感到应接不暇。

[原文] [Speaker]: But if you just get to work start making progress every day realize that you're not going to understand every single AI tool on the planet.

[译文] [讲者]: 但如果你只是开始工作，开始每天取得进展，意识到你不可能理解地球上的每一个AI工具。

[原文] [Speaker]: Understand how to use it perfectly on on the planet.

[译文] [讲者]: 理解如何在这个星球上完美地使用它。

[原文] [Speaker]: Realize that uh you're just learning as you go.

[译文] [讲者]: 要意识到，呃，你只是在边做边学。

[原文] [Speaker]: You're building as you go with momentum every day better than the next.

[译文] [讲者]: 你在保持势头边做边构建，每一天都比前一天更好。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um I mean what an incredible time to be building.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，我的意思是，这是多么不可思议的构建时代啊。

[原文] [Speaker]: Um and uh let's do this together.

[译文] [讲者]: 嗯，而且，呃，让我们一起行动吧。

[原文] [Speaker]: I'll see you on the next episode and thank you for le listening.

[译文] [讲者]: 下期节目再见，感谢您的收听。